Charts book watch list - feb 14, 2012

JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE

Watch List (1)

CHARTS BOOK

By: Ramy Rashad, CMT

20 Stocks to Watch


WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012

INDEX :

Name Code Page

Orascom Construction Industries OCIC.CA 3

Commercial International Bank- Egypt COMI.CA 4

Egyptian Company for Mobile Services EMOB.CA 5

Talaat Moustafa Group Holding TMGH.CA 6

El Sewedy Electric SWDY.CA 7

National Societe Generale Bank NSGB.CA 8

Maridive & Oil Services Co MOIL.CA 9

Juhayna Food Industries JUFO.CA 10

El Kahera Housing & Development ELKA.CA 11

Palm Hills Development PHDC.CA 12

Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals SKPC.CA 13

Al Baraka Bank – Egypt SAUD.CA 14

Egyptian Financial and Industrial Co. EFIC.CA 15

Medinet Nasr Housing and Development MNHD.CA 16

2 CHARTS BOOK

Name Code Page

United Housing & Development UNIT.CA 17

Samad Misr (Egyfert) SMFR.CA 18

EFG-Hermes Holding HRHO.CA 19

Pioneers Holding PIOH.CA 20

National Company for Maize Products NCMP.CA 21

Egyptian for Tourism Resorts EGTS.CA 22



3

BOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP266.43 )

Do you remember our immediately prior recommen-

dation when we advised “system traders” to Buy? We

were, in fact, trading MACD which was signaling its

second important buy signal.

Who bought based on MACD should get out based

also on it. So far, we haven't any sell signal but ex-

tremely overbought reading. Bearish candle with

pickup in trading activity may induce you to take on-

ly small profits and to get out near our target

(EGP280), or after a bearish crossover in MACD.

You are also advised to Buy dips to lower support

ORASCOM CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES RIC: OCIC.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 265 250 245

Resistance 270 280 -

Stop loss - - -

Target 280 - -

CHARTS BOOK



4


We had referred, in several technical researches, to

this falling channel as a third phase in a bear market;

Overall structure, Momentum and volume pattern

were our main clues that the security is falling from

its own weight and sellers are getting weaker and

weaker, but we were waiting for buyers to come in.

Taking out this falling channel, with thrust in momen-

tum and volume, indicates that the balance is turning

out in the favor of bulls and as a result we recom-

mend traders to Buy Dips.

COMMERCIAL INTERNATIONAL BANK- EGYPT RIC: COMI.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 23.90 23.35 22.0

Resistance 26.0 27.0 28.0

Stop loss 22.50 - -

Target 31.0 - -

CHARTS BOOK



5


“Charts reflect everything”. This tenet makes sense

to most technicians. Our first buy signal was based on

a bullish crossover in MACD in weekly chart (see

symbol). A decisive down breakout below the sym-

metrical triangle forced us out, however, the MACD

didn't slide below its signal line. A return back to the

triangle, negating its bearish implications, triggered

our second buy stop. Taking out the major declining

channel triggered our third buy signal. Now, with

three weekly long white candles, the odds still in the

favor fulfilling our targets.

EGYPTIAN COMPANY FOR MOBILE SERVICES RIC: EMOB.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 130 120 -

Resistance 150 160 190

Stop loss 129 - -

Target 150 190 -

CHARTS BOOK



6


The security hovers well over the most important sup-

port zone (3.8/ 4.0), over the 50 and 200-day EMAs.

Momentums are in the bulls side and the security is

heading to our prospected target @ EGP5.30.

We sense a weakness, which may send the security

just to lower support levels, however, we recommend

traders to Buy Dips.

TALAAT MOUSTAFA GROUP HOLDING RIC: TMGH.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 4.15 4.0 -

Resistance 5.0 5.30 -

Stop loss 3.8 - -

Target 5.30 - -

CHARTS BOOK



7


After a decisive up-breakout over the perfect classic

Head and Shoulders bottoming pattern, the security

nearly fulfilled our measured target (dotted brown

line) and is currently under a complete in-decision

state. why? We think that the 200-day EMA may of-

fers an answer. This average carries a magnificent im-

portance and current vacillation makes a lot of sense.

Our traders were advised to buy a breakout over a

horizontal red neckline @ 23.0 and also were advised

to buy a pull back to that level. Now, traders are ad-

vised to buy a breakout over 26.45.

EL SEWEDY ELECTRIC RIC: SWDY.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 25.25 24 23

Resistance 26.45 27 28

Stop loss 23 - -

Target 27 30 -

CHARTS BOOK



8


Do your remember when we referred to the beautiful

H&S in this security. Volume& Momentum were in

our side and, fortunately, our target, EGP27.45, has

been fulfilled.

We have a bottom and currently we have a by-book

profit-taking pattern. We suspect that a Flag, which

resting just on the 200-day EMA, is taking place and

the security had penetrated its declining resistance

line. If so, expect a thrust move to our target near

EGP32.0. We recommend traders to Buy in.

NATIONAL SOCIETE GENERALE BANK RIC: NSGB.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 27.45 26.40 26.25

Resistance 30.0 31/ 32

Stop loss 26.20 - -

Target 31.0 32.0 -

CHARTS BOOK



9

BOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: USD1.81 )

The overall structure seems favorable but, for short-

term perspective, a lateral action is taking place be-

tween USD1.6 and USD1.82 as support and re-

sistance levels, respectively. Taking out the resistance

level will force the security to the next juncture level;

USD2.0. We suspect that a bottom pattern is taking

place, but the Negative reversal signal in MACD in-

dicates that the odds are in the favor of a continuation

of the current sideway phase. Traders are advised to

trade a range (1.60/ 1.82 & 1.82/ 2.0), buy a breakout

over USD1.82, take some profits near USD2.0 and

hide-in-cash below USD1.6

MARIDIVE & OIL SERVICES CO RIC: MOIL.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 1.80 1.60 -


Stop loss 1.60 - -

Target 2.0 2.20 3.60

CHARTS BOOK



10


The overall structure seems favorable, especially af-

ter a very bullish reading in the RSI (see yellow cir-

cle), but we sense a vacillation state in the security at

current levels.

You are advised to take some profits, buy a weak dip

to lower support zone and/or buy a breakout over 5.0

targeting 5.30.

JUHAYNA FOOD INDUSTRIES RIC: JUFO.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 4.8 4.5 4.4

Resistance 5 5.25 -

Stop loss 4.4 - -

Target 5.3 - -

CHARTS BOOK



11


It seems clear that the security faces a very hard ob-

stacle on its way up to the second juncture level.

However, failing to continue all the way down to the

structure support level and a bounce back over re-

sistance may constitutes a starting point for a forth-

coming thrust.

Buy a breakout over EGP5.0, take profits near

EGP5.5 and cut losses below 4.60.

EL KAHERA HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT RIC: ELKA.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 4.70 4.60 4.25


Stop loss 4.60 - -

Target 5.0 5.5 -

CHARTS BOOK



12


Finally the security found a bottom, and clearing sev-

eral resistance levels on the way up may take place

shortly, but with yesterday’s candle and spike in trad-

ing activity, you are advised to take some profits.

A decline to immediately preceding support zone may

take place and at which, you are advised to long the

security again targeting EGP2.0.

PALM HILLS DEVELOPMENT RIC: PHDC.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 1.7 1.5 1.4


Stop loss 1.4 - -

Target 2.0 - -

CHARTS BOOK



13


A return back over the broken major trend line was

everything any trader want to negates the bearishness

of a negative impact.

As expected, a failure move always followed by a

thrust move.

Now the security is under a healthy profit-taking

phase and a thrust to our target is highly predictable.

Risk takers can buy dips to lower support zone and all

traders are advised to ride the next thrust move.

SIDI KERIR PETROCHEMICALS RIC: SKPC.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 13.5 13.0 -


Stop loss 13.0 - -

Target 15.5 - -

CHARTS BOOK



14


After fulfilling our up-side target (EGP10.0), we

should salute ourselves. Traders who bought our sig-

nal near EGP9.0, should take some profits near cur-

rent levels.

The current structure still favorable, the up-trend is

easily seen without using any complicated techniques

and a decline to lower support levels should triggers

your Buy stop. A decisive up-breakout over EGP10.0

should also triggers your buy stop to EGP11.0

AL BARAKA BANK – EGYPT RIC: SAUD.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 9.5 9.0 -

Resistance 10 11 -

Stop loss 9.0 - -

Target 10 11 -

CHARTS BOOK



15


Taking out the falling intermediate channel isn't

something occurs in a daily basis; it’s a more than

welcomed signal.

A decisive up-breakout over EGP12.0 offers a won-

derful buy signal; you don't need to miss it :)

RSI’s structure indicates that the breakout may take

place shortly but you get paid in prices not the RSI,

so put it in your watching list and stick to our trading

signal.

EGYPTIAN FINANCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL CO. RIC: EFIC.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 11 10 -

Resistance 12 13 15

Stop loss 10 - -

Target 16 - -

CHARTS BOOK



16


Pure price analysis says BUY

Volume says BUY

RSI says BUY

MACD says BUY

BUY & Respect lower levels

MEDINET NASR HOUSING AND DEVELOPMENT RIC: MNHD.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 13.0 - -

Resistance 16.0 - -

Stop loss 12.5 - -

Target 16.0 - -

CHARTS BOOK



17


What a beautiful bottom, what a beautiful thrust and

what a beautiful momentum.

Our keen readers have a winning positions in this se-

curity and we have, somehow, a reasonable assurance

that the security is going to our mentioned target

EGP6.5, but knowing the security’s character is a

must to play it well; RIDE THE THRUST, TAKE

PROFITS WHEN A VACILLATION ARISE AND

THEN BUY WEAKNESS.

UNITED HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT RIC: UNIT.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 5.25 5.0 4.5

Resistance 6.5 - -

Stop loss 5.0 4.5 -

Target 6.5 - -

CHARTS BOOK



18


A classic bottom is materializing in this security; a

breakout over a slanting down neckline, red line, has

triggered a buy signal to old-fashioned analysts.

Volume pattern is giving fuel to the situation and mo-

mentum structure tells that everything is just perfect.

The pattern’s target revolves around EGP7.0 , but we

expect sellers to come in near the major declining

trend lines. You are advised to Buy a Pull back to the

broken neckline. Respect the stop loss levels.

SAMAD MISR (EGYFERT) RIC: SMFR.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 6.0 5.70 5.50


Stop loss 6.0 5.70 -

Target 7.50 9.0 -

CHARTS BOOK



19


The security lags the market as seen via the Relative

Strength Comparative (lower panel).

Taking out the medium-term resistance level

EGP12.0, was the first step in a bottom phase.

Declining volume accompanying the current rally

should be regarded as a red flag.

A decline to near 12 should triggers your short-term

buy stop as long as the RSI keeps its rising trend line

intact.

EFG-HERMES HOLDING RIC: HRHO.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 12.0 11.70 11.25

Resistance 13 13.5 14

Stop loss 11 - -

Target

CHARTS BOOK



20


It’s our security ;) our keen readers know that for

sure. We were following this security and had have a

significant winning positions to our clients. Our first

buy signal was near EGP2.90, recommended traders

to take profits near EGP3.6 with more than 24% ap-

preciation in value!!! We waited for the security to

pull back and initiated the second buy signal near

EGP3.40. our keen readers still have a winning posi-

tion and we continue to recommend a Hold/ Buy dips

strategy. (see our Technical Tips– Jan 17, 2012)

PIONEERS HOLDING RIC: PIOH.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 3.90 3.60 3.30


Stop loss 3.3 - -

Target 5.0 5.30 -

CHARTS BOOK



21


This is what we’re talking about. Finally the security

had cleared a strong medium-term declining trend

line. Momentum also behaves like a released prisoner

and the balance is turning in the favor of bulls

Liquidity risk is the main issue in trading this security

and unless you have a long-term exposure, you are

advised to stand aside.

Your are advised to Buy dips with a firm stop below

EGP14.0.

NATIONAL COMPANY FOR MAIZE PRODUCTS RIC: NCMP.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 14.60 14.0 -

Resistance 15 16 -

Stop loss 14

Target 18 - -

CHARTS BOOK



22


what a magnificent penetration! It has everything you

might dream about; violent thrust, healthy pull back,

pick up in trading activity and strengthen in momen-

tum indicators.

Two scenarios in this situation; a larger bottom may

be taking place or the bulls will kick the bears out

taking the security to very higher levels. The security

faces a concentration of supply from the 200-day

EMA and a decline may materialize. You are advised

to either Buy dips to lower support levels or Buy a

breakout over EGP1.10.

EGYPTIAN FOR TOURISM RESORTS RIC: EGTS.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

First Second Third

Support 1.07 1.05 1.0


Stop loss .96 - -

Target 1.25 1.60 -

CHARTS BOOK

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23

JSB Contacts Title Land Line Mobile Email

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Charts book watch list - feb 14, 2012