BlackSwanTradingTM 22oct16

“

Page 1 of 13

October 2016 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.

Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update

22 October 2016

Equities trading above our benchmark Risk Price (SF) are those liked by investors, as two of three

continue to price rise due to investors’ preference. These equities we call “likeables.” They are

revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital1.

Cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it loses

value. That is simple fact. For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you feed at the low price end

of "likeables" we find in balance sheets. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better

than cash. Risk Aversion, Capital Safety and Liquidity in ‘likeables’ we prove works for you.

The US markets particularly well fed on Quantitative Eating courtesy of the Federal Reserve

suddenly lost their expectations. The markets are always expectant mooing for fodder. They got

pooped when the forced feeding ended, despite early avuncular advice from Fed. Now finally a

tentative rate rise feels out if recovery is real in the real economy, not sooner than later.

Two and a half years late Uncle Draghi is now leading that charge to easing. Xi and Putin are

pondering how they will rule the mountains, valleys, even the Black and China Seas. Saud and

Khomeini divide the sands, as 2/3rds of mankind bow their heads to Abraham’s God. Greek flirts

with the dancing Bear while Merkel gets brushed aside as the Euro banks ease the pains. Christine

Lagarde has had a moral conversion and presses for some jubilee, before heading to court.

On years of debate the Financial Stability Board under Mark Carney has realized its remit and

declared risk models of deposit insured retail banking go back to the medieval2 era practice of

retaining more than 1/7th reserve3 for absorbing Bad Risks they have put on their ledgers. History

proves that high reserves worked to prevent imprudent bank calamity. Meanwhile our real economy

is hard at its work to absorb imprudences, exceed population growth and save for a hopeful return.

Consumers were demanding, firms were not reversing their balance sheet cash loads. Firms that

have not found their way to innovate, have chosen to aggregate. At high cash and low interest rates

many choose to buy-back stock, as confirmed in scooping their stock-options their moral hazard

gets rewarded, again. The market mavens are always, ‘surprised’ again, it is their stock response.

The paid by the word business model pundits wrote lots, but as gossips never knew and never do

know, they are just highly motivated guessers. We have a guidepost, Risk Price (SF), we know

where we are and, when and where to go. Know What You Have. Have What You Know.

In 2012 as open handed ‘Truth or Dare’ display of our methods from then current identified

monthly crop of new ‘likeables’ we partitioned from NYSE the Solo50KTM portfolio for a select

group of self-employed entrepreneurs. Solo-50K portfolio results from US tax law amendments4 to

encourage saving by the self-employed especially during years when their hay is high.

Many may recall the rightly famous Black Swan crying fowl on her fund managers three years ago.

We sent her a Tweet 15 April 2013 to calm her down to our methods. We introduced her to our

"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844

"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios

“

Page 2 of 13



22 October 2016

portfolio we called the Solo50KTM we had prior devised to help self employed heroines in our

circle of readers. We can call it the BlackSwanTradingTM or, in all respect to Noriel Roubini,

perhaps a more topical name suits BloodySlowTradingTM counterpoints Wall Street Pumpers.5

Hans Goetze @HansGoetze Apr 15

@RealMilaKunis

Solo50Kportfolio:AIZ,AVY,BSX,CMA,DOW,GT,HCBK,LLTC,LNC,NBR,NYT,NYX,OR

CL,SYY,TE,TEX,TSN,UNM,WM=123.15%@19wks

Note Solo50KTM had already made a 23.15% gain in the prior ‘hot’ 19 weeks. So, we reset it as

BSTTM for Ms. Kunis. If Ms. Kunis was not just clawing air time dollars from her followers but

allocated BSTTM it has posted 74.50% gain since, with NO CHANGES. That is disregarding our

stoploss settings that had kicked out all but 3 of the original 19 stocks in 26 months, to June 2015.

We prefer capital safety, from very slow trading. With risk averse stoploss settings (instead of

collaring options as we prefer)6 BSTTM as Solo50KTM had made a nice 103.58% in 30 months.

That was an annual 32.89% internal rate of return, well above our 12 year test on the DJI.

But wait, there is more to Solo50KTM. The original Solo50KTM had been sent prior to the

attention of a public service endowment frantic to rebuild its capital which had declined further

18% under ‘active management’ since the 2009 plunge. Their remit was threatened. They may wish

they had known sooner of our work based in our new theory of the firm that proves in real markets.

Quantitative Eating was an unusual time. Most everyone has forgotten the DJI was at 12966

03dec2012. That market growth rate out stripping GDP is not likely repeated as Draghi uses QE.

Conventional bleating of the ‘dollar-per-word” industry called 2014 too volatile and 2015 too lame,

to make money, for you. With our “likeables” you can save your own bacon. You have proof.

What proof does convention offer? Yup, that is an oxymoron. Convention is flat-landers in a global

reality. Fund managers are just used equities traders who know little more than pretense, for

unworthy fee-taking so that none is ever left for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet.

Financial industry advisors are schooled sellers of financial products to

exploit small investor savings for their taking fees7. They are not

changing their tools or sharpening those they have. They took the

“regular courses” required by a self-regulated industry driven only their

creative sales fiction8. Seemingly, certification requires intensive study

in the key tools of Rhetoric - Adumbration, Subterfuge, Mystification

and Derogation. Humm, that sounds familiar.

“I only took the regular courses,” sighed the Mock Turtle.

“What was that?” inquired Alice. “Reeling and Writhing, of course, to

begin with, and then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition,

Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.”

http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/


“

Page 3 of 13



22 October 2016

The larger your “likeables” portfolio will tend to average 26% per annum Internal Rate of Return as

proven through the two recessions of the past 13 years. See our articles StockTakers’ 2012Q1 bite

on DJI9. and The Counter Culture: Case for a Can Opener10. Our work stands on giants, insights

of three very different laureates, and evidence as our “likeables” behaviour is proof.

That proven behaviour of our portfolios, fund managers like CPPIB11 can afford to ignore as

politicians demand you must trust to invest even double-up donations in their proven failures.

Donations to their failure have already doubled since I was legally required to start paying 45 years

ago. Wall Street12 does not understand value or even price. When is any stock cheap enough13?

Convention does not comprehend our ‘likeables’ behaviour as hedge funds fail to deliver14. But,

they are still skimming purses. Bonds are oh-so-ho-hum15 they do not know how to ‘fix-it’ either.

On gossip hem and haw the markets bounced and yawed with all the boats. The managers of

pensions, insurance and other equity pools trade accounts for 90% of the market, but they do not

know which way that flat-world view of theirs turns, but churning your money works for their

salaries, just not your income. Quantitative Eating ‘treacle-down’ just capitalized sticky fingers

gaming US markets, not consumers ‘getting-on-with-their-lives’ hoping to earn income on savings.

Our public portfolios are proof, we can. Extending our proprietary information as charity suiting

small savers’ needs in our BookBuilderTM allows you invest in your children’s education,

TaxCharityTM allows you invest in your retirement income needs. Because we can, you can too.

Our public portfolios do better because we can with our new theory of the firm. We seek accredited

investors to whom we can offer StockTakers 12% Bond16 advancing what we have proven, we do

the work. We show proof in our methods, in real time portfolios.

BlackSwanTradingTM is a study in passivity. Managed with our stoploss controls from the start in

01dec12 it showed gain of 103.58% for 43.7 months. These past 21 months’ of mugwumps mauling

market prices had to give-up the bloat of QE, with managers claiming need of switching to bonds to

generate their incomes from churning client cache17. No crisis, no fees is their mantra. But risk

averse ‘likeables’ have nice tendencies and are very likeably coming back to current near doubling.

Portfolios Update List – 22 October 2016

BlackSwanTradingTM (Solo 50K on NYSE)

just the equities of "likeables" Firms

Market

Price

Symbol SF (Risk Price)

Stop/Loss

Buy-ins 01December 2012 and held, no stoploss used and portfolio left untended.

Assurant Inc. 91.28 AIZ:US 61 84.0

Avery Dennison Corp. 78.84 AVY:US 47 72.5

Boston Scientific Corp. 23.73 BSX:US 13 21.4

Comerica Inc. 46.74 CMA:US 43 42.1

Dow Chemical Co. 52.56 DOW:US 44 49.4

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 32.42 GT:US 24 29.8

Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (takenover by M&T 02dec15) 10.12 HCBK:US

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji


http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/

http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/

https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi

http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/

“

Page 4 of 13



22 October 2016

Linear Technology Corp. 59.03 LLTC 40 53.7

Lincoln National Corp. 46.65 LNC:US 48 41.1

Nabors Industries Ltd. 10.44 NBR:US 19 8.2

New York Times Company 12.42 NYT 12 11.9

NYSE Euronext (Price 15nov13 at ICE Takeover) 45.29 ICE/NYX

Oracle Corp. 39.51 ORCL:US 37 37.5

Sysco Corp. 50.02 SYY:US 32 46.0

Teco Energy Inc. 27.64 TE:US

Terex Corp. 24.65 TEX:US 20 21.9

Tyson Foods Inc. CL A 76.76 TSN:US 35 67.5

Unum Group 35.51 UNM:US 22 33.4

Waste Management Inc. 64.01 WM:US 47 58.9

(NB: stoploss settings not used to keep capital safe. We prefer risk aversion using collaring options)

BlackSwanSleepingTM Portfolio Value (incl. Dividends) 22 September 2016 / 30 November 2012

81383.50 / 43465.00 Gain 45.7

months 87.24%

Current Cash (ICE/NYX takeover 15nov13; HCBK takenover 02dec2015;

TE takenover 30jun16)

Dividends earned

8305.00

5022.50

IRR pa 17.90%

Current ‘Ready’ Cash, such a lot to be sitting

idle instead of making wealth in adding to your

portfolio, or BookBuilderTM’s for your

children

13327.50

Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility in case of such irrational

market mavens’ pressures of Q3-2014 through Q1-2016. Irrationally volatile swings occurred without

regard for reason as stock prices sharply rebounded. Capital was defended by stoploss settings as intended

but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown below.

If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but carried-on in a slumber as above, you

gained a tidy 87.24% for snoozing like Rip Van Winkle for 45.7 months, a net 17.90% IRR p.a. gain,

you got $13,327.50 (used-less) cash in your wallet and now rockets return and land on earth, standing-up.

In the long haul all but 2 of these 19 ‘likeables’ rebounded above their Risk Price and $topLoss in dominant

positive markets. However below one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’ 2 of 3 gain tendencies at work

in a mixed market that was strongly negative on ‘news’ without substance over these past 20 months, on

newspeak unrelated to business of firms in the real economy. Managers make 90% of trading but they never

know where they are or which way to go.

We have progressively tightened our stoploss settings to less than a standard deviation on a 52 week rolling

range18 of a stock’s price. That does incur an added ‘churn’ cost of buying after selling at the triggered

stoploss setting. That is a consequence of exercising Capital Safety. There are benefits to doing that.

“

Page 5 of 13



22 October 2016

Above no stoplosses were applied. Below we show the effect of the stoploss set only on quarterly basis

gained 31.94% more at the end of 45.7 months for little effort by our model small investor managing their

personal savings portfolio only once each month and still over that interval including the last rough 6

quarters negative volatility obtained 103.47% achieving 21.54 IRR p.a. That is very likeable.

That demonstrated yield of 21.54% IRR p.a. is further proof our Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ risk

averse discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM. Investors need to know Risk Price.

Solo 50K on NYSE ”likeables” Firms Market

Price

Symbol SF (Risk Price)

Stop/Loss

See old posts for Buy-ins 01 December 2012 *100 shares each

Buy-ins 22jan16 *100 shares each

Analog Devices Inc. ($49.3 StopLoss 08feb16) ADI:US 64 59.1

Autodesk Inc. ($46.6 StopLoss 05feb16) ADSK:US 73 64.1

AFLAC Inc. (N* $59.7 stepout 22feb16) AFL:US 73 65.2

Avery Dennison Corp. 75.50 AVY:US 79 69.5

BB&T Corp. ($31.2 StopLoss 03feb16) BBT 38 36.9

Big Lots Inc. ($42.8 StopLoss 18may16) BIG:US 47 40.7

Diamond Foods Inc. ($37.2 StopLoss 28jan16) DMND

AGL Resources Inc. ($65.97 SO takesover GAS 30jun16) GAS:US

Hartford Financial Srvs. ($42.1 StopLoss 27jun16) HIG:US 43 40.9

Jarden ($49.2 StopLoss 08feb16, NWL takesover 18apr16) JAH:US

KLATencor Corp. ($67.5 StopLoss 12aug16) KLAC:US 70 66.3

Paychex Inc. ($46.7 StopLoss 08feb16) PAYX:US 58 52.1

Pinnacle Foods Inc. ($40.4 StopLoss 08feb16) PF:US 49 47.1

TE Connectivity Ltd. ($56.0 StopLoss 27jan16) TEL:US 65 58.1

Total System Srvs Inc, ($42.8 StopLoss 27jan16) TSS:US 48 42.5

Buy-ins 22feb16 *100 shares each

Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 09sep16) CAG:US 43 44.2

Comcast Corp. ($63.9 StopLoss 22oct16) 63.90 CMCSA:US 67 60.8

CMS Energy Corp. ($38.7 StopLoss 02mar16) CMS:US 43 37.9

Deluxe Corporation ($66.4 StopLoss 29sep16) 66.40 DLX 68 60.3

Diamond Foods Inc. (LNCS acquires DMND 01mar16) DMND 21 0.0

Edison International ($68.7 StopLoss 22mar16) EIX 74 65.9

Fidelity National Infrmtn Srvs ($57.9 StopLoss 24feb16) FIS:US 78 69.8

International Paper Co 47.00 IP:US 48 42.3

Kroger Company ($35.6 StopLoss 22mar16) KR:US 30 27.4

Masco Corp. ($30.6 StopLoss 29apr16) MAS:US 35 29.8

Buy-ins 22mar16 *100 shares each

Linear Technology Corp. ($43.7 StopLoss 04may16) LLTC 60 54.6

“

Page 6 of 13



22 October 2016

Sysco Corp 47.49 SYY:US 50 43.7

Total System Services Inc. ($47.6 StopLoss 16aug16) TSS:US 48 42.5

Buy-ins 22apr16 *100 shares

Edison International ($70.2 StopLoss 04oct16) 70.20 EIX 74 65.9

Kroger Company 30.76 KR:US 30 27.4

Buy-ins 22may16 *100 shares each

Iron Mountain Inc. ($34.1 StopLoss 06oct16) 34.10 IRM:US 39 30.9

ProLogis Inc. ($50.6 StopLoss 05oct16) 50.60 PLD:US 55 48.2

Rofin-Sinar Technologies Inc. 32.35 RSTI:US 32 29.8

Buy-ins 22jul16 *100 shares each

American Electric Power Co. ($66.2 StopLoss 16aug16) AEP 66 58.1

Bank of New York Mellon Corp 43.05 BK:US 40 40.9

Buy-ins 22aug16 *100 shares each

Mondelez International Inc. 42.21 MDLZ 44 39.3

Altria Group Inc. 63.70 MO 64 58.6

ServiceNow Inc. 80.06 NOW 80 71.3

Buy-ins 22sep16 *100 shares each

Conagra Foods Inc. 48.01 43 44.2

Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -

incl. Dividends) 22 October 2016 / 30 November 2012 85323.60 / 43465.00 Gain 46.7

months 96.30%

IRR pa 18.92%

Current Cash (after 22aug16 buy-ins 217.00

Net Cash (after StopLoss *100 shares 28520.00

Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 28737.00

Buy-ins 22oct16 *100 shares each

SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

Autodesk Inc. 71.18 ADSK:US 73 64.1

Deluxe Corporation 63.43 DLX 68 60.3

EastGroup Properties Inc. 69.66 EGP 76 64.8

First Cash Financial Services 46.85 FCFS 47 42.2

Iron Mountain Inc. 33.97 IRM:US 39 30.9

Net Cash Forward 22oct16 *100 shares 228.00

Dividends earned 5573.60

Total Cash Available

5801.60

StockTakers Gaming in the StockYards with options on: Zylem Inc. Q: How do we do +26% p.a. IRR, you ask? Or, “why do you always buy-in 100 share blocks?” Or, “How

can StockTakers 12% Bond sustain 2.874% per quarter dividend to bond holders?”

A: We seek and secure controls on risk with collaring options taken from other Stockyard dogs and traders

“

Page 7 of 13



22 October 2016

to guide our hold positions and control exits on ‘zoomers’ we filter from the ‘pack’ of ‘likeables’ in the ‘B’

partition of the market Risk Price gives us to work with. The pack of identified ‘zoomers’ we can risk

manage, because we know better, to achieve a segment obtaining even 75% p.a. IRR in a hangdog market19

If you used $4591.00 ‘idle’ cash in your cache,

for which 22jun16 you did add a 100 block of

Xylem Inc. to your growing wealth cache, plus

29aug16, gave you $0.155 dividend too! Same

dividend is confirmed 07dec16, 1.3% dividend

coupon is better than bonds.

Humm … from 14.95% gain in three months

the market bull-ooneys backed off to 6.72%

gain in three months, is very nice! Very

likeable as we prefer, and we hold! We bought

their option short call down at our stop and put

option to cover the ends of 10% range on

market volatility of record, for a nice ‘side-bar’

gain of at least 48 on short sell and 55 long, as

we hold. Good firm placing itself in good

capital position for surge in water

infrastructure purchasing, as the world expands

its needs for water treatment and old systems

replacement.

22oct16 48.840 29aug16 +0.155

48.995

XYL:US 53 Vq 44.0

Vy 48.9

22jun16 45.910

4 mos 6.72%

Risk Price fundamental worth SF stepped-up sharply from 32 to 53 in our patent analysis of XYL current SEC 8-K reporting completed long

term financing through DB as necessary to purchase Sensus Worldwide Ltd., an

agreement adding smart metering systems to enhance its base in water and waste water

metering and pumping technologies an overlaying of quarterly balance sheet data

report that increases the worth as an expression of SF in showing healthy use of in-

hand cash capitalizing the firm innovation. Next up Q3 report release will be 01nov16.

Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -

incl. Dividends) 22 October 2016 / 30 November 2012 85323.60 / 43465.00 Gain 46.7

months 96.30%

IRR pa 18.92%

Removal of Quantitative Eating combined with oil and gas bloat made unusual down-side

volatility in all markets this past 2 years. To that adjustment older Greece and newer China issues

added spooky gossip, a ‘sea-change’, of stoplosses were triggered by a trope of managers who

cannot figure out where they are.

Fundamentals of consumer spending, cars and house prices all rose while the managers threw your

money on the dice floor. We can buy back ‘likeables’ at lower prices and recover. Stock Prices

rebounded well above the prior stoploss again indicating less tight stops should be used again. The

normal mooing of herds grazing has returned. With our ‘likeables’ we can benefit most from the

fluttering of uncertainty in the market that is made by ‘active’ fund managers who have no

direction, no compass, as they lose the cache of their clients in their churn for their fees income.

Balance sheets did not flip-flop, but portfolio managers did, unrelated to ‘fundamentals’ of value

investing20. Our tighter $toploss values reduced risk of loss while the bears grumbled. All of the

stocks in our public portfolios21 simply rebounded, much higher. Few can still be bought back for

less than they stopped out weeks ago even as the markets regain confidence. Take the bonus when

“

Page 8 of 13



22 October 2016

it is there and buy those back. Staying in the market gets the rise as the tide swell comes in.

Skimming for advantageous collaring options to protect your capital takes time, away from

working at what you know you do best. Collaring of options can be very useful in added gains but

it requires a lot more attention than small investors can lavish.

Stoploss is a simpler approach. It is time to loosen the easily managed $toploss values as positive

mooing returns, as the bears picnic, rebuild for gain as markets liquidity has returned. Price has no

mass - gossip fluctuates and gyrates like a dervish, gravity less so but we know more about it.

Most of the US is nearing NAIRU full employment. Political shift to fuller renewal of

infrastructure is now at forefront with income equality initiatives. All the ‘canards’ must walk the

political stage while the real economy slowly inches its recovery forward, while absorbing other

people’s abuse of ‘credit float’ in the sea of moral hazard they had created.

The reality that ‘treacle-down’ never worked is roosting, as much as, austerity is impoverishing in

hard times when innovation and productivity are needed to ‘credit float’ warranted investment in

valiant business processes and enterprises in the real economy. That is the expectation society has

of corporations given fictitious personhood in accepting as public liability for corporate risk of

failure that society will obtain benefits if corporate success is won. Society needs the collective use

of ‘credit float’. Society wants those risks for socio-economic benefits to all trading connections

for ‘credit float’ given to the federation of interests that is incorporated with the enterprise. How

the corporation is governed and the added value distributed is where we need to workout better.

Austerity the FSB sees as necessary in support of retail bank reserves to limit imprudence of moral

hazard by bankers, which they pay from their resources without the public purse. The high margins

bankers have imposed in recent years has reduced liquidity, damping markets instead of spurring,

the amount of ‘credit float’ available for real economy enterprises, creating worth and wealth in

their business process, making ‘money’ to put in all our pockets and allocate as we wish or save in

‘likeables’ equities hopeful of gaining better income than our labour alone provides.

(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)

Analog Devices Inc 62.91 ADI:US 64 59.1

Automatic Data Processing Inc. 86.72 ADP:US 88 82.4

NASDAQ OMX Group Incorporated 66.18 NDAQ 69 60.2

Xylem Incorporated 48.84 XYL:US 53 44.0

USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00

See old posts for Buy-ins 15 September 2013 *100 shares each

Buy-ins 22jan16*100 shares each

Ameren Corp. ($47.0 StopLoss 21apr16) AEE:US 51 44.6

“

Page 9 of 13



22 October 2016

Allegion PLC ($58.2 StopLoss 03feb16) ALLE:US 70 62.5

Broadcom Corp. ($54.67 BRCM buys-in shares 29jan16) BRCM

Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 09sep16) CAG:US 43 44.2

Campbell Soup ($60.1 StopLoss 21apr16) CPB 55 49.0

Delta Air Lines Inc. ($44.7 stopLoss 27jan16) DAL 40 36.6

Dow Chemical Co. ($41.1 stopLoss 20jan16) DOW:US 53 50.3

E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.0 stopLoss 29jan16) ETFC:US 29 27.4

Fortune Brnds Hm. & Scty Inc. ($46.8 stopLoss 20jan16) FBHS:US 59 49.9

General Mills Inc. ($65.1 StopLoss 09sep16) GIS 64 56.5

Givaudan SA ADR ($38.8 $topLoss 21oct16) 38.80 GVDNY:US 42 36.4

Mondelez International Inc. ($39.9 stopLoss 03feb16) MDLZ:US 44 39.3

Tyson Foods Inc CL A ($67.5 $topLoss 21oct16) 67.50 TSN:US 77 61.2

Total System Services Inc. ($42.8 StopLoss 27jan16) TSS:US 48 42.5

Texas Instruments Inc. 69.97 TXN:US 70 63.7

Buy-ins 22feb16*100 shares each

Ameren Corp. ($47.0 StopLoss 21apr16) AEE:US 51 44.6

American Electric Power Co. ($61.3 StopLoss 01mar16) AEP 66 58.1

Cavium Incorporated ($55.0 StopLoss 18apr16) CAVM:US 58 47.5

Cablevision Sys. Corp. (21jun16 CVC mergers private) CVC:US 17 0.0

E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.3 StopLoss 07apr16) ETFC:US 29 27.4

Mondelez International Inc. ($41.6 StopLoss 27jun16) MDLZ:US 44 39.3

Patterson Companies Inc. ($43.3 StopLoss 01mar16) PDCO 46 41.7

Sealed Air Corp. ($48.1 StopLoss 28apr16) SEE:US 47 40.3

Buy-ins 22mar16*100 shares each

Lululemon Athletica Inc. ($60.2 StopLoss 13may16) LULU:US 64 50.7

Southwest Airlines Co. ($42.9 StopLoss 04may16) LUV 38 38.6 Buy-ins 22apr16 *100 shares each

Ameren Corp. ($47.3 StopLoss 04oct16) 47.30 AEE:US 51 44.6

Bemis Co Inc. ($49.6 StopLoss 13may16) BMS 51 46.5

CBRE Group Inc. ($25.8 StopLoss 27jun16) CBG 29 24.8

First Cash Financial Serv. ($47.4 StopLoss 09sep16) FCFS 47 42.2

Waste Management Inc. 62.21 WM:US 64 57.2 Buy-ins 22may16 *100 shares each

Bemis Co Inc 50.00 BMS:US 51 46.5

Southwest Airlines Co. (N* $36.28 StopLoss 22aug16) LUV:US 39 34.0

Altria Group Inc. 63.7 MO:US 64 58.6

Sealed Air Corp. ($43.4 StopLoss 27jun16) SEE:US 30 43.0

Buy-ins 22jun16 *100 shares each

Hormel Foods Corporation 37.71 HRL:US 39 33.2

Buy-ins 22jul16 *100 shares each

Lexmark International Inc CL A 39.94 LXK 36 35.1

Masco Corp 33.09 MAS:US 35 29.8

“

Page 10 of 13



22 October 2016

Maxim Integrated Products Inc. 39.83 MXIM 39 37.0

Buy-ins 22aug16 *100 shares each

Spectra Energy Corp. 42.66 SE 43 38.0

Buy-ins 22sep16 *100 shares each

Conagra Foods Inc. 48.01 CAG:US 43 44.2

General Mills Inc. ($60.5 $topLoss 21oct16) 60.50 GIS 64 56.5

Pinnacle Foods Inc. 51.23 PF:US 49 47.1

USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value

22 October 2016 (dividends inclu.) / 15 September 2013 77627.45 / 50912.00 Gain 37.3

months 52.46%

IRR pa 14.53%

Current 2013 Cash (after 22aug16 buy-ins) 1.00

Net Cash (StopLoss sales) *100 shares 21410.00

Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 21411.00

Buy-ins 22oct16 *100 shares each

SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

Analog Devices Inc 62.91 ADI:US 64 59.1

Cavium Incorporated 55.90 CAVM:US 58 47.5

Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc 54.29 FBHS:US 59 49.9

Givaudan SA ADR 38.69 GVDNY:US 42 36.4

Net Cash Forward 22oct16 *100 shares 232.00

Dividends earned 2381.45

Total Cash Available

2613.45

That is ‘idle’ cash in your cache, for which if

you did consider adding a 100 block of

Inteliquent Incorporated.to your growing

wealth cache, Surprise, you got stopped out at

$18.50 02aug2016 but made $133.00 gain in

one month, very nice!! Buy back at the better

current price of $15.31, it is still a ‘likeable’

for investing in itself and innovation of product

even if the mavens ‘expected’ better Q2 profit,

you snacked on Zacks bet and earned yourself

a nice bottle of 2009 Lynch-Bages from

Zachy’s for your dinner.

Or, did you add to your cache from your

dividends cash by buying in another.

22ocvt16-Subtle rise this month as the rest of

the market turtled defensively, overcomes

16.26

bought back

22aug16 @ 15.31

IQNT 16 14.5

“

Page 11 of 13



22 October 2016

lawyers claims of SEC misinformation, as

IQNT allies with ZipWhip shares investment.

Jabil Circuit Inc. 22sep16 JBL bought-in 22 aug16 @20.93 to your cache For a very nice $147.00, 7.02% gain in one month! Goldman, Motley, Monkey and Zacks all came late for the party. They get the leftovers. But, you, Bubby Girrrly, you are buying another bottle of 2009 Lynch-Bages at Zachy’s? 22oct16- Modest decline with the market, but Zack must have been listening? JBL reports same 0.08 for 1.53% dividend for 15nov16, better than bonds for your money.

21.68

20.93

JBL 22 19.7

USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value

22 October 2016 (dividends inclu.) / 15 September 2013 77627.45 / 50912.00 Gain 37.3

months 52.46%

IRR pa 14.53%

Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such

irrational market mavens’ pressures trading on ‘newspeak’ and gossip. Irrationally volatile swings occurred

in the past 18 months as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for any real reason. New highs

were recorded in markets showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must

rebuild the portfolio from capital protective $topLoss sales with successive replacement buy-ins as shown

above.

If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, grateful most rebounded

above their Risk Price and $topLoss, some are ‘zoomers’ some are clearly ‘laggards’ needing to be

shunned. However one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’2 of 3 tendency in wobbling mixed markets

with Solo50K BSTTM continued gaining. As market behaviours shifted sharply up and down risk aversion

pays with less risk and better gains. More stable trading seems to have returned, to contented mooing.

Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. Because we can, you can, too.

The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their

methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in. At their best 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss,

not adding value, or covering inflation and their fees – you lose. They cannot tell of a fair price or

value. Nonsense told often enough can even become politically correct, even as legal sinecure.

Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and

Liquidity because we have proven our risk aversion works, consistently obtaining both low risk

and AlphaSmartTM high gain. Our Risk Price is what investors must know to defend their capital.

“

Page 12 of 13



22 October 2016

Market behaviour prefers the “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids up their price. Our

method is proven. Because we can, you can22.

In our Modal Geometry23 theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:

1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly

weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared

to be responsible for); and,

2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is

owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its

trading connections).

The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded by rigourous observation of corporate ledgers

relation to balance sheets as business process24 adds value. That is aided with logic, epistemology,

and some powerful mathematics. You have proof in these TaxCharityTM portfolios performances.

Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables”

tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 gaining for the long term. This we show proof positive, in our

TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios continued gain.

Know What You Have. Have What You Know.

Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.

Hans Goetze,

Architypes Inc. [email protected] and StockTakers Limited Head Office 76 Midridge Close SE Calgary, AB T2X 1G1

351 Chemin Boulanger Sutton, PQ J0E 2K0 450 538-1270 647 608-2176

1 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 2 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet 3 http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-from.html 4 http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm 5 http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/ 6 http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/ 7 Leading proponent of Modern Portfolio Theory, Peter L. Bernstein disaffected realized it was exposing investors to risk while

productive way for making the professionals a living http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf 8 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/judge-by-company-they-keep 9 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji


http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/


http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet

http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-from.html

http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-from.html

http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm

http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/


http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/judge-by-company-they-keep


“

Page 13 of 13



22 October 2016

10 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12 11 http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/ 12 http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/ 13 http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/ 14 https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi 15 http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/ 16 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond 5 year, 15 million callable, paying 2.874% quarterly to

accredited investors http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/have-a-slice 17 https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/ 18 http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/ 19 http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/ 20 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor 21 http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/ 22 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 23 “The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006. 24 http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/

http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/

https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi

http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/have-a-slice

https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/

http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor

http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/


http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

Economy & Finance

BlackSwanTradingTM 22oct16