BlackSwanTradingtm 22jan17

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Equities trading above our benchmark Risk Price (SF) are those liked by investors, as two of three continue to price rise due to investors’ preference. These equities we call “likeables.” They are revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital1.

Cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it loses value. That is simple fact. For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you feed at the low price end of "likeables" we find in balance sheets. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. Risk Aversion, Capital Safety and Liquidity in ‘likeables’ we prove works for you.

The US markets particularly well fed on Quantitative Eating courtesy of the Federal Reserve suddenly lost their expectations. The markets are always expectant mooing for fodder. They got pooped when the forced feeding ended, despite early Fed avuncular advice. Finally Fed rate rise tentatively feels-out real recovery. Banks margin rise hinders2 the real economy, already sits on top.

Business press pundits wrote lots, but all gossip, not the real issues. They never knew and never do know, they are just highly motivated paid-by-the-word business model guessers. Press post-truths are trade of the Monetized Service Media Messengers MSMM. These schillers sent dumpster gleanings throughout gerrymandered elections for dubious policy outcomes by two-guns blazing duplicitous Yosemite Sam wearing his mustache on his head. What a goat rodeo with clowns is running the Oval Bowl. Dem-dummies eyes not on the road to change shot their messenger.

We have a very conflicted interesting scene unfolding in the Oval Bowl. We have a new game of what will he, won’t he, say or do next moment after this, sailing of the picaroons into high offices. Seems doubtful he will drain the morass or grab it, spreading it all over the land. We will have a volatile ride with this Yosemite Sam popping-off.

On years discussion the Financial Stability Board under Mark Carney has realized its remit and declared risk models of deposit insured retail banking go back to the medieval3 era practice of retaining more than 1/7th reserve4 for absorbing Bad Risks they have put on their ledgers with our money. History proves that high reserves worked to prevent imprudent bank calamity, they are prone making others fix. Meanwhile WE the real economy are hard at our work adding value and worth exceeding population growth and saving for a hopeful return under the new bank tithe5 after absorbing their imprudences by using-up the ‘trifecta’ of monetary tools. The banks cannot stop putting their hands into your cash-till6 either. Their cost-benefit calculus is crime’s implicit price.

Consumers were demanding. Firms were not allocating their balance sheet cash loads to capital, a practice called entrepreneurial capitalism. Seemingly C-suites have forgotten while leveraging their bonuses at stakeholders’ injury7. The less competent have chosen to dispose rather than innovate demand for more cash flow. At high cash and low interest rates many chose to buy-back stock, propping price8 they can scoop their stock-options. Surprising how their moral hazard gets bonused, again. The mavens are always, ‘surprised’ yet again, it is their stock response, in their favour.Page 1 of 17 January 2017 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.

The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.

"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844

"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803

Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update22 January 2017

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios

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With Risk Price (SF) we have devised leverage to partitioning of markets, like Archimedes ‘point’. We know with good reason where we are. When and where to go. Know What You Have. Have What You Know.

In 2012 as open handed ‘Truth or Dare’ display of our methods we partitioned from then current identified monthly crop of new ‘likeables’ from NYSE the Solo50KTM portfolio for a select group of self-employed entrepreneurs. The Solo-50K portfolio tax shelter opportunity results from US tax law amendments9 to encourage saving by the self-employed especially during years when their hay is high. We opted to use only passive stoploss settings for capital safety in our charity to small investors rather than aggressive options we use as are normal to our method. This Risk Price model of stock worth proves how robust our derived ‘likeables’ are. Higher gains are up to our routine.

Many may recall the rightly famous Black Swan crying fowl on her fund managers near four years ago. We sent her a Tweet 15 April 2013 to calm her down to our methods. We introduced her to our portfolio the Solo50KTM we had prior devised to help self-employed heroines in our circle of readers. We can call it the BlackSwanTradingTM or, in all respect to Noriel Roubini, perhaps a more topical name suits BloodySlowTradingTM as it counterpoints Wall Street Pumpers.10

Hans Goetze @HansGoetze Apr 15@RealMilaKunis Solo50Kportfolio:AIZ,AVY,BSX,CMA,DOW,GT,HCBK,LLTC,LNC,NBR,NYT,NYX,ORCL,SYY,TE,TEX,TSN,UNM,WM=123.15%@19wks

Note Solo50KTM had already made a 23.15% gain in the prior ‘hot’ 19 weeks. So, we reset it as BSTTM for Ms. Kunis. If Ms. Kunis was not just clawing air time dollars from her followers but allocated BSTTM it has posted 71.38% gain since 15apr13, with NO CHANGES. That is disregarding stoploss settings that had kicked out all but 3 of the original 19 stocks in 26 months, but from 01dec12 the gain is 101.37%, with no changes and carrying a lot of idle cash in that cache from three takeovers and lots of dividends. That is open auditable proof in real time in real markets.

We prefer capital safety, from very slow trading, we can obtain with opportune hunting of options traders. We can take their bets. Because we know better. With risk averse stoploss settings (instead of collaring options as we prefer)11 BSTTM as Solo50KTM had made a nice 103.58% in 30 months. That was an annual 32.89% internal rate of return, well above our 12 year test on the DJI.

But the market was ‘hot’ in 2013 stuffed on Quantitative Eating as the Treasury and Fed fed their constituents, the banks. As the banks have shown every time the reins come off they build and blow bubbles12, like killer Whales corralling the herring or capelin for their lunch. Your money is their free lunch, you are it. That is life on Cannery Row.

But wait, there is more to Solo50KTM. The original Solo50KTM had been sent prior to the attention of a public service endowment frantic to rebuild its capital which had declined further 18% under ‘active management’ since the 2009 plunge. Their remit was threatened. They may wish they had

Page 2 of 17 January 2017 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.


http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/


http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/

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known sooner of our work based in our new theory of the firm that proves Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ robust advantage in real markets.

Quantitative Eating was an unusual time. Most everyone has forgotten the DJI was at 12966 03dec2012. That market growth rate out stripping GDP is not likely repeated as Draghi uses QE. Conventional bleating of the ‘dollar-per-word” industry called 2014 too volatile and 2015 too lame, to make money, for you. With our “likeables” you can save your own bacon. You have proof.

What proof does convention offer? Yup, that is an oxymoron. Convention is flat-landers in a global reality13. Fund managers are just used equities traders who know little more than pretense, for unworthy fee-taking so that none is ever left for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet.

Financial industry advisors are schooled sellers of financial products to exploit small investor savings for their taking fees14. They are not changing their tools or sharpening those they have. They took the “regular courses” required by a self-regulated industry driven only by their creative sales fiction15. Seemingly, certification requires intensive study in the key tools of Rhetoric - Adumbration, Subterfuge, Mystification and Derogation. Humm, that sounds familiar.

“I only took the regular courses,” sighed the Mock Turtle.“What was that?” inquired Alice. “Reeling and Writhing, of course, to begin with, and then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.”

The larger your ‘likeables’ portfolio will tend to average 26% per annum Internal Rate of Return as using collaring options as proven through the two recessions of the past 13 years. See our articles StockTakers’ 2012Q1 bite on DJI 16 . and The Counter Culture: Case for a Can Opener17. Our work stands on giants, insights of three very different laureates, and evidence as our “likeables” behaviour is proof.

That proven behaviour of our portfolios, fund managers like CPPIB 18 can afford to ignore. But politicians demand you must trust to invest in their proven failures, even double-up donations. Donations to their failure have already doubled since legally required to start paying 50 years ago. Wall Street19 does not understand value or even price. When is any stock cheap enough20? Convention does not comprehend our ‘likeables’ behaviour as hedge funds fail to deliver 21 . But, they are still skimming purses. Bonds are oh-so-ho-hum22 they do not know how to ‘fix-it’ either.

On gossip hem and haw the markets bounced and yawed with all the boats as Trump slapped the stagnant waters of troubled US politics holing stoplosses. The managers of pensions, insurance and other equity pools trade accounts for 90% of the market, but they do not know which way that flat-world view of theirs turns, but churning your money works for their salaries, just not your income. Quantitative Eating as ‘treacle-down’ never worked. ‘Repeat and stir’ just capitalized sticky fingers gaming US markets, not consumers ‘getting-on-with-their-lives’ hoping to earn income on savings.Page 3 of 17 January 2017 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.



http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/

https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi

http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji

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Our public portfolios are proof, yes, we can. Extending our proprietary information as charity suiting small savers’ needs in our BookBuilderTM allows you invest in your children’s education, TaxCharityTM allows you invest in your retirement income needs. Because we can, you can too.

Our public portfolios do better because we can. Our new theory of the firm works in real markets, in real time. We seek accredited investors to whom we can offer StockTakers 12% Bond23 advancing what we have proven, we do the work. We show proof in our methods, in real time portfolios that are charity to small investors.

BlackSwanTradingTM is a study in passivity. Managed with our stoploss controls from the start in 01dec12 it showed gain of 103.58% for 43.7 months. These past 26 months’ of mugwumps mauling market prices had to give-up the bloat of QE, with managers claiming need of switching to bonds to generate their incomes from churning client cache24. No crisis, no trades, no fees, is their mantra.

With a burgeoning cash pool drawn on doubled margins the banks are flush with extra non-deposit cash they can extremely multiply in credit contracts to any ratio, at their will, as this is their deep dark pool resource and outside reserve system scrutiny. The recent market bubble is driven by this pool. But risk averse ‘likeables’ have nice tendencies and are very likeably back to current doubling, as volatility range will increase.

Portfolios Update List – 22 December 2016BlackSwanTradingTM (Solo 50K on NYSE) just the equities of "likeables" Firms

MarketPrice

Symbol SF(Risk Price)

Stop/Loss

Buy-ins 01December 2012 and held, no stoploss used and portfolio left untended.Assurant Inc. 96.15 AIZ:US 61 88.5Avery Dennison Corp. 72.41 AVY:US 47 66.6Boston Scientific Corp. 23.9 BSX:US 13 21.3Comerica Inc. 66.96 CMA:US 34 56.9Dow Chemical Co. 57.38 DOW:US 44 52.8Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 30.52 GT:US 24 28.4Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (takenover by M&T 02dec15) 10.12 HCBK:USLinear Technology Corp. 62.43 LLTC 50 55.6Lincoln National Corp. 66.93 LNC:US 48 56.9Nabors Industries Ltd. 17.58 NBR:US 8 14.2New York Times Company 13.35 NYT 12 12.4NYSE Euronext (Price 15nov13 at ICE Takeover) 45.29 ICE/NYXOracle Corp. 39.87 ORCL:US 37 37.5Sysco Corp. 53.81 SYY:US 35 49.5Teco Energy Inc. ($27.64 EMR takesover TE 30jun16) 27.64 TE:USTerex Corp. 31.58 TEX:US 20 26.5Tyson Foods Inc. CL A 62.57 TSN:US 35 55.1Unum Group 45.02 UNM:US 22 39.6Waste Management Inc. 69.66 WM:US 47 64.1



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(NB: stoploss settings not used to keep capital safe. We prefer risk aversion using collaring options)BlackSwanSleepingTM Portfolio Value(incl. Dividends) 22 January 2017 / 30 November 2012

87793.50 / 43465.00 Gain 49.7 months

101.99%

Current Cash(ICE/NYX takeover 15nov13; HCBK takenover 02dec2015; TE takenover 30jun16)Dividends earned

8305.005442.50

IRR pa 18.50%

Current ‘Ready’ Cash, such a lot to be sitting idle instead of making wealth in adding to your portfolio, or BookBuilderTM’s for your gifting into children’s tax sheltered self-directed fund building for their wealth independence.OR, FESTIVUS with the rest of us, far below!

13747.50

Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility in case of such irrational market mavens’ pressures of Q3-2014 through Q1-2016. Irrationally volatile swings occurred without regard for reason as stock prices sharply rebounded. Capital was defended by stoploss settings as intended but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown below.

If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but carried-on in a slumber as above, you gained a tidy 101.37% for snoozing like Rip Van Winkle for 49.7 months, a net 18.50% IRR p.a. gain, you have $13,747.50 (used-less) cash in your wallet and now rockets return and land on earth, standing-up. Spooky, but true, the real economy is still moving, up, as a truly vulgar man is now POTUS.

In the long haul all of those 19 ‘likeables’ rebounded above their buy-in.Mostr all are doubled and tripled in price. The ‘likeables’ are defined by and remain above their Risk Price and $topLoss in dominant positive markets. However below one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’ 2 of 3 gain tendencies at work in a mixed market that was strongly negative on ‘news’ without substance over these past 27 months, on newspeak unrelated to business of firms in the real economy. Managers make 90% of trading but they never know where they are or which way to go. It is your money you gave them, they are gambling with..

Above no stoplosses were applied. Below we show the effect of the stoploss set only on quarterly basis gained 101.99% at the end of 49.7 months for little effort by our model small investor managing their personal savings portfolio only once each month and still over that interval including the last rough 8 quarters negative volatility achieving 18.12% IRR p.a. That is very likeable.

That demonstrated yield of 19.56% IRR p.a. is further proof our Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ risk averse discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM. Investors need to know Risk Price.

Solo 50K 2012 on NYSE ”likeables” Firms Market Symbol SF Stop/Loss



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Price (Risk Price)See old posts for Buy-ins 01 December 2012 *100 shares eachBuy-ins 22feb16 *100 shares eachConagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 09sep16) CAG:US 29 36.4Comcast Corp. ($63.9 StopLoss 22oct16) CMCSA 56 68.4CMS Energy Corp. ($38.7 StopLoss 02mar16) CMS:US 27 39.4Deluxe Corporation ($66.4 StopLoss 29sep16) DLX 47 67.2Diamond Foods Inc. (LNCS acquires DMND 01mar16) DMND 21 0.0Edison International ($68.7 StopLoss 22mar16) EIX 58 66.9Fidelity National Infrmtn Srvs ($57.9 StopLoss 24feb16)

FIS:US 50 72.6

International Paper Co 53.69 IP:US 35 48.3Kroger Company ($35.6 StopLoss 22mar16) KR:US 22 30.7Masco Corp. ($30.6 StopLoss 29apr16) MAS:US 20 28.5Buy-ins 22mar16 *100 shares eachLinear Technology Corp. ($43.7 StopLoss 04may16) LLTC 50 55.6Sysco Corp 53.81 SYY:US 35 49.5Total System Services Inc. ($47.6 StopLoss 16aug16) TSS:US 30 48.1Buy-ins 22apr16 *100 sharesEdison International ($70.2 StopLoss 04oct16) EIX 58 66.9Kroger Company 34.09 KR:US 22 30.7Buy-ins 22may16 *100 shares eachIron Mountain Inc. ($34.1 StopLoss 06oct16) IRM:US 29 29.8ProLogis Inc. ($50.6 StopLoss 05oct16) PLD:US 37 47.8Rofin-Sinar Tech. Inc. (COHR takesover RDSTI 07nov16) RSTI:US 32 29.9Buy-ins 22jul16 *100 shares eachAmerican Electric Power Co. ($66.2 StopLoss 16aug16) AEP 53 59.1Bank New York Mellon Corp. ($44.9 StopLoss 19jan17) 44.90 BK:US 35 40.5Buy-ins 22aug16 *100 shares eachMondelez International Inc. ($40.8 StopLoss 01dec16) MDLZ 39 42.5Altria Group Inc. 70.01 MO 48 66.5ServiceNow Inc. 83.40 NOW 57 70.9Buy-ins 22sep16 *100 shares eachConagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 10nov16 split 1285/1000) CAG 29 36.4Buy-ins 22oct16 *100 shares eachAutodesk Inc. ($68.4 StopLoss 02dec16) ADS 60 70.2Deluxe Corporation ($60.3 StopLoss 03nov16) DLX 47 67.2EastGroup Properties Inc. ($64.8 StopLoss 03nov16) EGP 51 68.5First Cash Financial Services 43.60 FCFS 40 37.9Iron Mountain Inc. ($30.9 StopLoss 14nov16) IRM 29 29.8Buy-ins 22nov16 *100 shares eachInternational Game Tech. ($24.0 StopLoss 13dec16) IGT 14 22.1Page 6 of 17 January 2017 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.



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Landstar System Inc 84.05 LSTR 59 74.8PayPal Holdings Incorporated 41.69 PYPL 37 37.9Ross Stores Inc. 66.00 ROST 54 61.4Williams-Sonoma Incorporated 48.64 WSM:US 49 44.7Yelp Incorporated 41.06 YELP 18 33.3Buy-ins 22dec16 *100 shares eachBB&T Corp. 45.42 BBT 32 40.9Best Buy Co. Inc. 43.36 BBY 26 37.3Unum Group 45.02 UNM:US 22 39.6

Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended - incl. Dividends) 22 January 2017 / 30 November 2012

86208.00 / 43465.00 Gain 49.7 months

98.34%

IRR pa 17.98%Current Cash (after 22aug16 buy-ins 141.00Net Cash (after StopLoss *100 shares 4490.00Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 4631.00Buy-ins 22jan17 *100 shares each SF

(Risk Price)Stoploss

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. 44.56 BK:US 35 40.5

Net Cash Forward 22oct16 *100 shares 175.00

Dividends earned 6160.00Total Cash Available 6335.00

StockTakers Gaming in the StockYards with options on: Zylem Inc.Q: How do we do +26% p.a. IRR, you ask? Or, “why do you always buy-in 100 share blocks?” Or, “How can StockTakers 12% Bond sustain 2.874% per quarter dividend to bond holders?”A: We seek and secure controls on risk with collaring options taken from other Stockyard dogs and traders to guide our hold positions and control exits on ‘zoomers’ we filter from the ‘pack’ of ‘likeables’ in the ‘B’ partition of the market Risk Price gives us to work with. The pack of identified ‘zoomers’ we can risk manage, because we know better, to achieve a segment obtaining even 75% p.a. IRR in a hangdog market25.

If you used $4591.00 ‘idle’ cash in your cache, for which 22jun16 you did add a 100 block of Xylem Inc. to your growing wealth cache, plus 29aug16, gave you $0.155 dividend too! Same dividend is confirmed 07dec16, 1.3% dividend coupon is better than bonds.Humm … from 14.95% gain in three months the market bull-ooneys backed off to 6.72% gain in three months, is very nice!

12jan17 49.00029aug16 +0.15507nov16 +0.155

49.310

XYL:US 32 Vq 48.0Vy 49.0

22jun16 45.910

7 mos 7.41%

Risk Price fundamental worth SF stepped-up sharply from 53 to 32 in our patent

analysis of XYL current SEC 8-K reporting completed long term financing through DB

as necessary to purchase Sensus Worldwide Ltd., an agreement adding



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Very likeable as we prefer, and we hold! We bought their option short call down at our stop and put option to cover the ends of 10% range on market volatility of record, for a nice ‘side-bar’ gain of at least 49 on short sell and 56 long, as we hold. Good firm placing itself in good capital position for surge in water infrastructure purchasing, as the world expands its needs for water treatment and old systems replacement. $49.0 stoplost 12jan17

smart metering systems to enhance its base in water and waste water metering

and pumping technologies an overlaying of quarterly balance sheet data report that

increases the worth as an expression of SF in showing healthy use of in-hand cash

capitalizing the firm innovation. Next up Q3 report release will be 01nov16.

The market liked the quarterly report, gaining share price right through election dyspepsia. What will he, won’t he, say or

do next moment after this, drain the morass or grab it, spread it all over the

land. Looks like a mudslide as the bottom feeders fill up the swamp for a quagmire!

Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended - incl. Dividends) 22 January 2017 / 30 November 2012

86208.00 / 43465.00 Gain 49.7 months

98.34%

IRR pa 17.98%

Removal of Quantitative Eating combined with oil and gas bloat made unusual down-side volatility in all markets this past 2 years. To that adjustment older Greece and newer China issues added spooky gossip, a ‘sea-change’, of stoplosses were triggered by a trope of managers who cannot figure out where they are. Price ratios are meaningless confusion26 but well enough a crutch.

Fundamentals of consumer spending, cars and house prices all rose while the managers threw your money on the dice floor. We can buy back ‘likeables’ at lower prices and recover. Stock Prices rebounded well above the prior stoploss again indicating less tight stops should be used again. The normal mooing of herds grazing has returned. With our ‘likeables’ we can benefit most from the fluttering of uncertainty in the market that is made by ‘active’ fund managers who have no direction, no compass, as they lose the cache of their clients in their churn for their fees income.

Balance sheets did not flip-flop, but portfolio managers did, unrelated to ‘fundamentals’ of value investing27. Our tighter $toploss values reduced risk of loss while the bears grumbled. All of the stocks in our public portfolios28 simply rebounded, much higher. Few can still be bought back for less than they stopped out weeks ago even as the markets regain confidence. Take the bonus when it is there and buy those back. Staying in the market gets the rise as the tide swell comes in.

Skimming for advantageous collaring options to protect your capital takes time, away from working at what you know you do best. Collaring of options can be very useful in added gains but it requires a lot more attention than small investors can lavish.



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Stoploss is a simpler approach. It is time to loosen the easily managed $toploss values as positive mooing returns, as the bears picnic, rebuild for gain as markets liquidity has returned. Price has no mass - gossip fluctuates and gyrates like a dervish, gravity less so but we know more about it.

Most of the US is nearing NAIRU full employment. Political shift to fuller renewal of infrastructure is now at forefront with income equality initiatives. All the ‘canards’ must walk the political stage while the real economy slowly inches its recovery forward, while absorbing other people’s abuse of ‘credit float’ in the sea of moral hazard they had created.

The reality that ‘treacle-down’ never worked is roosting, as much as, austerity is impoverishing in hard times when innovation and productivity are needed to ‘credit float’ warranted investment in valiant business processes and enterprises in the real economy. That is the expectation society has of corporations given fictitious personhood in accepting as public liability for corporate risk of failure that society will obtain benefits if corporate success is won. Society needs the collective use of ‘credit float’. Society wants those risks for socio-economic benefits to all trading connections for ‘credit float’ given to the federation of interests that is incorporated with the enterprise. How the corporation is governed and the added value distributed is where we need to workout better.

Austerity the FSB sees as necessary in support of retail bank reserves to limit imprudence of moral hazard by bankers, which they pay from their resources without the public purse. The high margins bankers have imposed in recent years has reduced liquidity, damping markets instead of spurring, the amount of ‘credit float’ available for real economy enterprises, creating worth and wealth in their business process, making ‘money’ to put in all our pockets and allocate as we wish or save in ‘likeables’ equities hopeful of gaining better income than our labour alone provides.

(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)Analog Devices Inc 72.88 ADI:US 50 68.3Automatic Data Processing Inc. 103.24 ADP:US 77 97.5NASDAQ OMX Group Incorporated 67.36 NDAQ 35 60.5Xylem Incorporated 49.06 XYL:US 32 46.0

USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00See old posts for Buy-ins 15 September 2013 *100 shares eachBuy-ins 22jan16*100 shares eachAmeren Corp. ($47.0 StopLoss 21apr16) AEE:US 38 48.9Allegion PLC ($58.2 StopLoss 03feb16) ALLE:US 50 59.9Broadcom Corp. ($54.67 BRCM buys-in shares 29jan16) BRCM 0.0Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 09sep16) CAG:US 29 36.4



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Campbell Soup ($60.1 StopLoss 21apr16) CPB 37 58.4Delta Air Lines Inc. ($44.7 stopLoss 27jan16) DAL 45 45.5Dow Chemical Co. ($41.1 stopLoss 20jan16) DOW:US 44 52.8E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.0 stopLoss 29jan16) ETFC:US 20 32.0Fortune Brnds Hm. & Scty Inc. ($46.8 stopLoss 20jan16) FBHS:US

30 50.4

General Mills Inc. ($65.1 StopLoss 09sep16) GIS 50 57.4Givaudan SA ADR ($38.8 $topLoss 21oct16) GVDNY 30 33.9Mondelez International Inc. ($39.9 stopLoss 03feb16) MDLZ:US 39 42.5Tyson Foods Inc CL A ($67.5 $topLoss 21oct16) TSN:US 35 55.1Total System Services Inc. ($42.8 StopLoss 27jan16) TSS:US 30 48.1Texas Instruments Inc. 74.75 TXN:US 50 67.3Buy-ins 22feb16*100 shares eachAmeren Corp. ($47.0 StopLoss 21apr16) AEE:US 38 48.9American Electric Power Co. ($61.3 StopLoss 01mar16) AEP 53 59.1Cavium Incorporated ($55.0 StopLoss 18apr16) CAVM:US 40 56.3Cablevision Sys. Corp. (21jun16 CVC mergers private) CVC:US 17 0.0E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.3 StopLoss 07apr16) ETFC:US 20 32.0Mondelez International Inc. ($41.6 StopLoss 27jun16) MDLZ:US 39 42.5Patterson Companies Inc. ($43.3 StopLoss 01mar16) PDCO 38 37.2Sealed Air Corp. ($48.1 StopLoss 28apr16) SEE:US 30 44.4Buy-ins 22mar16*100 shares eachLululemon Athletica Inc. ($60.2 StopLoss 13may16) LULU:US 49 59.9Southwest Airlines Co. ($42.9 StopLoss 04may16) LUV 39 46.5Buy-ins 22apr16 *100 shares eachAmeren Corp. ($47.3 StopLoss 04oct16) AEE:US 38 48.9Bemis Co Inc. ($49.6 StopLoss 13may16) BMS 40 46.8CBRE Group Inc. ($25.8 StopLoss 27jun16) CBG 28 27.5First Cash Financial Serv. ($47.4 StopLoss 09sep16) FCFS 40 37.9Waste Management Inc. 69.66 WM:US 47 64.1Buy-ins 22may16 *100 shares eachBemis Co Inc 49.76 BMS:US 40 46.8Southwest Airlines Co. (N* $36.28 StopLoss 22aug16) LUV:US 39 46.5Altria Group Inc. 70.01 MO:US 48 66.5Sealed Air Corp. ($43.4 StopLoss 27jun16) SEE:US 30 44.4Buy-ins 22jun16 *100 shares eachHormel Foods Corporation 36.27 HRL:US 25 33.0Buy-ins 22jul16 *100 shares eachLexmark Int’l Inc. CL A ($40.49 Apex takesover 28nov16) LXK 35 40.5Masco Corp. ($29.8 StopLoss 01nov16) MAS:US 20 28.5Maxim Integrated Products Inc. 41.39 MXIM 32 38.1Buy-ins 22aug16 *100 shares each



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Spectra Energy Corp. 41.97 SE 25 36.5Buy-ins 22sep16 *100 shares eachConagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 $topLoss 10nov16) CAG:US 29 36.4General Mills Inc. ($60.5 $topLoss 21oct16) GIS 50 57.4Pinnacle Foods Inc. ($47.1 $topLoss 10nov16) PF:US 28 49.6Buy-ins 22oct16 *100 shares eachAnalog Devices Inc. ($68.5 $topLoss 02dec16) ADI:US 50 65.6Cavium Incorporated 64.02 CAVM:US 40 56.3Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc. 55.41 FBHS:US 30 50.4Givaudan SA ADR ($36.4 $topLoss 10nov16) GVDNY 30 33.9Buy-ins 22nov16 *100 shares eachBarnes Group Incorporated 46.19 B 25 41.6Bank New York Mellon Corp. ($44.9 StopLoss 19jan17) 44.90 BK:US 35 40.5eBay Inc. 30.64 EBAY:US 24 27.6Givaudan SA ADR 36.08 GVDNY 30 33.9Buy-ins 22dec16 *100 shares eachPrincipal Financial Group Inc 58.24 PFG:US 46 51.3ProLogis 52.57 PLD:US 37 47.8

USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value 22 January 2017 (dividends inclu.) / 15 September 2013

80101.95 / 50912.00 Gain 40.3 months

57.32%

IRR pa 14.44%Current 2013 Cash (after 22oct16 buy-ins) 59.00Net Cash (StopLoss sales) *100 shares 4490.00Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 4549.00Buy-ins 22dec16 *100 shares each SF

(Risk Price)Stoploss

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. 44.56 BK:US 35 40.5


Dividends earned 2839.95Total Cash Available 2932.95

That is ‘idle’ cash in your cache, for which if you did consider adding a 100 share block of Inteliquent Incorporated.to your growing wealth cache, Surprise, you got stopped out at $18.50 02aug2016 but made $133.00 gain in one month, very nice!! Buy back at the better current price of $15.31, it was still a ‘likeable’ for investing in itself and innovation of product

22dec16 22.90bought back 22aug16 @

15.31

IQNT 11 21.1



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even if the mavens ‘expected’ better Q2 profit, you snacked on Zacks bet and earned yourself a nice bottle of 2009 Lynch-Bages from Zachy’s for your dinner.Or, did you add to your cache from your dividends cash by buying in another.22oct16-Subtle rise this month as the rest of the market turtled defensively, overcomes lawyers claims of SEC misinformation, as IQNT allies with ZipWhip shares investment.Jabil Circuit Inc. 22aug16 to 22dec16

JBL bought-in 22 aug16 @20.93 to your cacheFor a very nice $147.00, 7.02% gain in one month!Goldman, Motley, Monkey and Zacks all came late for the party. They get the leftovers.But, you, Bubby Girrrly, you are buying another bottle of 2009 Lynch-Bages at Zachy’s?22nov16- Modest decline with the market, but Zack must have been listening? JBL repeats same quarterly dividend 0.08 for 1.53% pa for 10nov16, better than bonds for your money, If you have held, then that is your 2.25% gain in three months.22dec16 –yummy, 15.38% in four months, for a yield of $322.00. Take a seasonal trip to Zacks for 2 bottles of Ch.Lynch-Bages 2009.Happy Festivus, with the rest of us!!

22dec16 @ 24.0710nov16 @ 0.08

JBL 20 21.7

22dec16 @ 24.15

22 aug16 @ 20.93

Meanwhile, your herd of ‘likeables’ beauties is nicely mooing your grass.So, now that you have divested and are enjoying your Lynch-Bages at your family festive table, let’s play a new round of this game again with your cache cash allocated on current newbies in the ‘likeables’ pool.

StockTakers Fun & Games in the StockYards with: FDML, EEP, SYMC, TER, IPG, VLO, UIS, SIRI

The BST cache (or new savings) put in actionFESTIVUS with the rest of us 22dec2016 13648.00



“

Buy-ins 22dec16 *100 shares each SF(Risk Price)

Stoploss

FederalMogul Corp 9.99 FDML 5 8.0Enbridge Energy Partners LP CL A 24.94 EEP 17 18.8Symantec Corp. 26.65 SYMC 16 21.7Teradyne Inc 26.29 TER 16 23.8Interpublic Group of Cos 23.08 IPG 17 22.2Vale SA 10.03 VALE 8 6.4Unisys Corporation 13.15 UIS 10 11.5Sirius XM Radio Inc. 4.59 SIRI 4 4.2The BST cache (or new savings) put in actionFESTIVUS with the rest of us 22jan2017/ (including dividends) 22dec2016

13872.00 / 13648.00 Gain 1.0 months

1.64%


Dividends earned 0.00FESTIVUS Total Cash Available 0.00

FESTIVUS with the rest of us 22jan2017/ (including dividends) 22dec2016

13872.00 / 13648.00 Gain 1.0 months

1.64%

Meanwhile, your herd of ‘likeables’ beauties is nicely mooing your grass.USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value 22 January 2017 (dividends inclu.) / 15 September 2013

80101.95 / 50912.00 Gain 40.3 months

57.32%

IRR pa 14.44%

Stop-loss settings defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such irrational market mavens’ pressures trading on ‘newspeak’ and gossip. Irrationally volatile swings occurred in the past 18 months as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for any real reason. New highs were recorded in markets showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must rebuild the portfolio from capital protective $topLoss sales with successive replacement buy-ins as shown above.If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, grateful most rebounded above their Risk Price and $topLoss, some are ‘zoomers’ some are clearly ‘laggards’ needing to be shunned. However one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’2 of 3 tendency in wobbling mixed markets with Solo50K BSTTM continued gaining. As market behaviours shifted sharply up and down risk aversion pays with less risk and better gains. More stable trading seems to have returned, to contented mooing.

No one is claiming DJI to hit 20000 this December, as they did last year. But feeding frenzy has gripped on promised infrastructure financing, the XYZ-millenials will be paying for the next 40 years as deficit debts will balloon under the Yuge Welfare Queen from Queens. He has never minded debt so long as someone



“

else paid. That is GOP 101, per, Dick Cheney, “Deficits do not matter, Reagan taught us that.” Cut welfare to single parent and child households and have States shove that Federal money into frat-boy bursaries and marriage counselling for young upper middle class couples29. Empty all your pockets, say good-bye to it. That is the only change voted, worst of the same kleptocracy, the corporate command economy30. Watchout for the Larsen iceberg31

StockTakers helps small investors grow their wealth and attain liquidity with their own savings32. To the accredited investor StockTakers offers the 12% Bond, we do all the work and take all the risk.

Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. Because we can, you can, too.

The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in. At their best 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss, not adding value, or covering inflation and their fees – you lose. They cannot model a fair price or value. Nonsense told often enough can even become politically correct, even as legal sinecure.

Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and Liquidity because we have proven our risk aversion works, consistently obtaining both low risk and AlphaSmartTM high gain. Our Risk Price is what investors must know to defend their capital. Market behaviour prefers the “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids up their price. Our method is proven. Because we can , you can 33.

In our Modal Geometry34 theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows: 1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly

weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared to be responsible for); and,

2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its trading connections).

The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded by rigourous observation of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets as business process35 adds value. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and some powerful mathematics. You have proof in these TaxCharityTM portfolios performances.

Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables” tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 gaining for the long term. This we show proof positive, in our TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios continued gain.

Know What You Have. Have What You Know.

Our view is risk averse. Of course we earn our fees for taking all the risk. Mail us for our help.



http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/


“

Hans Goetze, Architypes Inc. [email protected] and StockTakers Limited

Head Office351 Chemin BoulangerSutton, PQJ0E 2K0450 538-1270647 608-2176



1 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 2 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/new-bank-tithe their historic high margin is their ‘private sales tax’ 6+prime 0.25%=6.25% instead of 3.25% http://www.money-rates.com/prime-rate-history.htm “Historically, the prime rate is set 300 points above the federal funds rate.” http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/222-years-interest-history-one-chart-173358843.html the average rate has been 5.18% since the start of this country’s history. “Any time we break above it, we get into trouble,” says Louise Yamada. 3 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet raised reserve ratio lowers leverage of money multiplier of loans interest paid. Banks response has been to double their margin to ensure ‘someone else is going to die, so bankers slurp the champagne and caviar’4 http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-from.html 5 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/new-bank-tithe the triumvirate tools, direct intervention in TARP; market intervention with Quantitative Eating; and interest rate setting have been exhausted into sluggish growth by banks raising average margin from 3 to 6% benefiting themselves at society expense (as a 3% sales tax piled on as if an interest rate rise displacing FED role mediating money market rate) to depress results of increased productivity on flat wages and low wage service jobs creation as corporate cash ratio on balance sheets remains high reduced only by mergers at inflated stock prices for management bonuses6 Class action suit has been filed on TD Bank for importing known defective coin counters in 2013 for a 20% skim of main street retailers’ cash deposits; and, another suit for their breach of variable rate consumer credit contracts surcharging as racketeering. 7 Recent The Economist ‘Schumpeter’ column asks where false equivalences in management guru strategies are really going. http://www.economist.com/news/business/21711909-what-martin-luther-did-catholic-church-needs-be-done-business-gurus-management?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/20161215n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/8374158/n What and who do they serve with poison pills?8 A. Sorkin, Too Big to Fail, 2009, Richard Fuld CEO at Lehman did this instead of innovating changes, p 126-132; C-suites share bonus drives their concerned efforts, p 54-57 deal with Warren Buffet notes intent of J. Gutfreund at Salomon Bros bailout; R. Gasso bonus on NYSE IPO, p52; Robert Steel at Goldman IPO p 67, Wachovia, p 409-17 181-3;. John Mack on Fuld’s merger discussion p186-195; Erin Callan currying market on quarterly report, p 33-5; J. Dimon on Bear Stearns shareholders p.37; Timothy Geithner is self- deceiving or duplicitous with the neoclassical redefinition of ‘The Invisible Hand’ p37 or who the bailout helped, italics p 4099 ht tp://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm 10 http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/ 11 http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/12 J.K. Galbraith, The Great Crash, 1929, NY, 1954 & 1997, ISBN 0-395-85999-9, not regulators, bankers, (p120-41) or economists (p143-54 knew more than populist romancing, that delusion covering what was later discerned in courts as rapacious banking activity fueling speculation by investment trusts in highly leveraged options trading aided by bankers (supported by their taking Fed rediscount loans after client deposits) made margin loans available, bankers who were also side-betting inside trading for themselves, remedied to extent by 1933 & 34 Bank and SEC Acts as repealed in 1990’s lobby, ended in pantomimic shrugged ineptithet, “who knew?’ claiming their ineptness behind the curtain where they are supposed having scrutiny their mandate. See also, R. F. Bruner &, S. D. Carr, The Panic of 1907; for rapacious exploits J. P. Morgan used to kill trust-bank competition and add Tennessee Coal & Oil to US Steel as uncovered in Pujo Congressional hearings, 1912, shortly before his death. Under pressure Federal Reserve Bank was revived, by the banks and remains as adjunct tool of the banks paid for by public funds; H. Goetze, Midas Miasma, March 2011.13 Hans Goetze, Feast or Famine, November 201514 Leading proponent of Modern Portfolio Theory, Peter L. Bernstein disaffected realized it was ‘exposing investors to risk while productive way for making the professionals a living’ http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf15 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/judge-by-company-they-keep 16 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji 17 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12 18 http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/ 19 http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/ 20 http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/ 21 https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi 22 http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/23 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond 5 year, 15 million callable, paying 2.874% quarterly to accredited investors http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/have-a-slice24 https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/ 25 http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/26 http://riskwerk.com/2012/06/05/economics-is-confusing/ 27 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor 28 http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/ 29 NPR radio does journalism, seeks answers to tough questions. The MuddleStreamMedia do not do journalism. They sell salacious gossip and fictions to grab eyeballs for advertisers and cannot claim rightful membership of the Fifth Estate, they verify nothing http://www.npr.org/2016/08/22/490245470/20-years-since-welfares-overhaul-results-are-mixed the GOP states have subverted TENF reform to deny the needy support, giving 75% of these federal funds to wealthier constituent programmes.30 John Perkins, Confession of an Economic Hitman, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-a6jzU0YgQ the book was found on Osama Bin-Laden’s night table. Noam Chomsky fills out this ‘ice-berg’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97eV9IW0sSk as Neil De Grasse Tyson explains it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8WYriay8MY 31 https://phys.org/news/2017-01-massive-antarctic-ice-shelf-ready.html poised to break raising world oceans 4cm as a tsunami ripples through the Pacific, while watching Trump ignore all evidence, filing the swamp with beasties raiding the public purse32 Hans Goetze, Open Letter to Deborah, 2015, http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/open-letter-to-deborah

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/open-letter-to-deborah

https://phys.org/news/2017-01-massive-antarctic-ice-shelf-ready.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8WYriay8MY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97eV9IW0sSk

http://www.npr.org/2016/08/22/490245470/20-years-since-welfares-overhaul-results-are-mixed

http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor

http://riskwerk.com/2012/06/05/economics-is-confusing/


https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/have-a-slice

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond

http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/

https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi

http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/judge-by-company-they-keep

http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf


http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/

http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm

http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-from.html

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet


33 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 34 “The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006.35 http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/


Economy & Finance

BlackSwanTradingtm 22jan17