BlackSwanTradingTM 22dec16

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December 2016 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.

Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update

22 December 2016

Equities trading above our benchmark Risk Price (SF) are those liked by investors, as two of three

continue to price rise due to investors’ preference. These equities we call “likeables.” They are

revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital1.

Cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it loses

value. That is simple fact. For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you feed at the low price end

of "likeables" we find in balance sheets. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better

than cash. Risk Aversion, Capital Safety and Liquidity in ‘likeables’ we prove works for you.

The US markets particularly well fed on Quantitative Eating courtesy of the Federal Reserve

suddenly lost their expectations. The markets are always expectant mooing for fodder. They got

pooped when the forced feeding ended, despite early Fed avuncular advice. Finally Fed rate rise

tentatively feels-out real recovery. Banks margin rise hinders2 the real economy, already sits on top.

Business press pundits wrote lots, but all gossip, not the real issues. They never knew and never do

know, they are just highly motivated paid-by-the-word business model guessers. Press post-truths

are trade of the Monetized Service Media Messengers MSMM. These schillers sent dumpster

gleanings throughout gerrymandered elections for dubious policy outcomes by two-guns blazing

duplicitous Yosemite Sam wearing his mustache on his head. What a goat rodeo with clowns is

running the Oval Bowl. Dem-dummies eyes not on the road to change shot their messenger.

We have a very conflicted interesting scene unfolding in the Oval Bowl. We have a new game of

what will he, won’t he, say or do next moment after this, sailing of the picaroons into high offices.

Seems doubtful he will drain the morass or grab it, spreading it all over the land. We will have a

volatile ride with this Yosemite Sam popping-off.

On years discussion the Financial Stability Board under Mark Carney has realized its remit and

declared risk models of deposit insured retail banking go back to the medieval3 era practice of

retaining more than 1/7th reserve4 for absorbing Bad Risks they have put on their ledgers with our

money. History proves that high reserves worked to prevent imprudent bank calamity, they are

prone making others fix. Meanwhile WE the real economy are hard at our work adding value and

worth exceeding population growth and saving for a hopeful return under the new bank tithe5 after

absorbing their imprudences by using-up the ‘trifecta’ of monetary tools. The banks cannot stop

putting their hands into your cash-till6 either. Their cost-benefit calculus is crime’s implicit price.

Consumers were demanding. Firms were not allocating their balance sheet cash loads to capital, a

practice called entrepreneurial capitalism. Seemingly C-suites have forgotten while leveraging their

bonuses at stakeholders’ injury7. The less competent have chosen to dispose rather than innovate

demand for more cash flow. At high cash and low interest rates many chose to buy-back stock,

propping price8 they can scoop their stock-options. Surprising how their moral hazard gets bonused,

again. The mavens are always, ‘surprised’ yet again, it is their stock response, in their favour.

"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844

"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios

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22 December 2016

With Risk Price (SF) we have devised leverage to partitioning of markets, like Archimedes ‘point’.

We know with good reason where we are. When and where to go. Know What You Have. Have

What You Know.

In 2012 as open handed ‘Truth or Dare’ display of our methods we partitioned from then current

identified monthly crop of new ‘likeables’ from NYSE the Solo50KTM portfolio for a select group

of self-employed entrepreneurs. The Solo-50K portfolio tax shelter opportunity results from US tax

law amendments9 to encourage saving by the self-employed especially during years when their hay

is high. We opted to use only passive stoploss settings for capital safety in our charity to small

investors rather than aggressive options we use as are normal to our method. This Risk Price model

of stock worth proves how robust our derived ‘likeables’ are. Higher gains are up to our routine.

Many may recall the rightly famous Black Swan crying fowl on her fund managers near four years

ago. We sent her a Tweet 15 April 2013 to calm her down to our methods. We introduced her to our

portfolio the Solo50KTM we had prior devised to help self-employed heroines in our circle of

readers. We can call it the BlackSwanTradingTM or, in all respect to Noriel Roubini, perhaps a

more topical name suits BloodySlowTradingTM as it counterpoints Wall Street Pumpers.10

Hans Goetze @HansGoetze Apr 15

@RealMilaKunis

Solo50Kportfolio:AIZ,AVY,BSX,CMA,DOW,GT,HCBK,LLTC,LNC,NBR,NYT,NYX,OR

CL,SYY,TE,TEX,TSN,UNM,WM=123.15%@19wks

Note Solo50KTM had already made a 23.15% gain in the prior ‘hot’ 19 weeks. So, we reset it as

BSTTM for Ms. Kunis. If Ms. Kunis was not just clawing air time dollars from her followers but

allocated BSTTM it has posted 71.38% gain since 15apr13, with NO CHANGES. That is

disregarding stoploss settings that had kicked out all but 3 of the original 19 stocks in 26 months,

but from 01dec12 the gain is 101.37%, with no changes and carrying a lot of idle cash in that cache

from three takeovers and lots of dividends. That is open auditable proof in real time in real markets.

We prefer capital safety, from very slow trading, we can obtain with opportune hunting of options

traders. We can take their bets. Because we know better. With risk averse stoploss settings (instead

of collaring options as we prefer)11 BSTTM as Solo50KTM had made a nice 103.58% in 30 months.

That was an annual 32.89% internal rate of return, well above our 12 year test on the DJI.

But the market was ‘hot’ in 2013 stuffed on Quantitative Eating as the Treasury and Fed fed their

constituents, the banks. As the banks have shown every time the reins come off they build and blow

bubbles12, like killer Whales corralling the herring or capelin for their lunch. Your money is their

free lunch, you are it. That is life on Cannery Row.

But wait, there is more to Solo50KTM. The original Solo50KTM had been sent prior to the

attention of a public service endowment frantic to rebuild its capital which had declined further

18% under ‘active management’ since the 2009 plunge. Their remit was threatened. They may wish

http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/


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22 December 2016

they had known sooner of our work based in our new theory of the firm that proves Risk Price

driven ‘likeables’ robust advantage in real markets.

Quantitative Eating was an unusual time. Most everyone has forgotten the DJI was at 12966

03dec2012. That market growth rate out stripping GDP is not likely repeated as Draghi uses QE.

Conventional bleating of the ‘dollar-per-word” industry called 2014 too volatile and 2015 too lame,

to make money, for you. With our “likeables” you can save your own bacon. You have proof.

What proof does convention offer? Yup, that is an oxymoron. Convention is flat-landers in a global

reality13. Fund managers are just used equities traders who know little more than pretense, for

unworthy fee-taking so that none is ever left for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet.

Financial industry advisors are schooled sellers of financial products to

exploit small investor savings for their taking fees14. They are not

changing their tools or sharpening those they have. They took the

“regular courses” required by a self-regulated industry driven only by

their creative sales fiction15. Seemingly, certification requires intensive

study in the key tools of Rhetoric - Adumbration, Subterfuge,

Mystification and Derogation. Humm, that sounds familiar.

“I only took the regular courses,” sighed the Mock Turtle.

“What was that?” inquired Alice. “Reeling and Writhing, of course, to

begin with, and then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition,

Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.”

The larger your ‘likeables’ portfolio will tend to average 26% per annum Internal Rate of Return as

using collaring options as proven through the two recessions of the past 13 years. See our articles

StockTakers’ 2012Q1 bite on DJI16. and The Counter Culture: Case for a Can Opener17. Our

work stands on giants, insights of three very different laureates, and evidence as our “likeables”

behaviour is proof.

That proven behaviour of our portfolios, fund managers like CPPIB18 can afford to ignore. But

politicians demand you must trust to invest in their proven failures, even double-up donations.

Donations to their failure have already doubled since legally required to start paying 50 years ago.

Wall Street19 does not understand value or even price. When is any stock cheap enough20?

Convention does not comprehend our ‘likeables’ behaviour as hedge funds fail to deliver21. But,

they are still skimming purses. Bonds are oh-so-ho-hum22 they do not know how to ‘fix-it’ either.

On gossip hem and haw the markets bounced and yawed with all the boats as Trump slapped the

stagnant waters of troubled US politics holing stoplosses. The managers of pensions, insurance and

other equity pools trade accounts for 90% of the market, but they do not know which way that flat-

world view of theirs turns, but churning your money works for their salaries, just not your income.

Quantitative Eating as ‘treacle-down’ never worked. ‘Repeat and stir’ just capitalized sticky fingers

gaming US markets, not consumers ‘getting-on-with-their-lives’ hoping to earn income on savings.

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/

http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/

https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi

http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/

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22 December 2016

Our public portfolios are proof, yes, we can. Extending our proprietary information as charity

suiting small savers’ needs in our BookBuilderTM allows you invest in your children’s education,

TaxCharityTM allows you invest in your retirement income needs. Because we can, you can too.

Our public portfolios do better because we can. Our new theory of the firm works in real markets,

in real time. We seek accredited investors to whom we can offer StockTakers 12% Bond23

advancing what we have proven, we do the work. We show proof in our methods, in real time

portfolios that are charity to small investors.

BlackSwanTradingTM is a study in passivity. Managed with our stoploss controls from the start in

01dec12 it showed gain of 103.58% for 43.7 months. These past 26 months’ of mugwumps mauling

market prices had to give-up the bloat of QE, with managers claiming need of switching to bonds to

generate their incomes from churning client cache24. No crisis, no trades, no fees, is their mantra.

With a burgeoning cash pool drawn on doubled margins the banks are flush with extra non-deposit

cash they can extremely multiply in credit contracts to any ratio, at their will, as this is their deep

dark pool resource and outside reserve system scrutiny. The recent market bubble is driven by this

pool. But risk averse ‘likeables’ have nice tendencies and are very likeably back to current

doubling, as volatility range will increase.

Portfolios Update List – 22 December 2016

BlackSwanTradingTM (Solo 50K on NYSE)

just the equities of "likeables" Firms

Market

Price

Symbol SF (Risk Price)

Stop/Loss

Buy-ins 01December 2012 and held, no stoploss used and portfolio left untended.

Assurant Inc. 85.56 AIZ:US 61 77.0

Avery Dennison Corp. 71.68 AVY:US 47 65.2

Boston Scientific Corp. 20.84 BSX:US 13 18.8

Comerica Inc. 61.55 CMA:US 34 56.0

Dow Chemical Co. 54.33 DOW:US 44 51.1

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 30.47 GT:US 24 28.0

Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (takenover by M&T 02dec15) 10.12 HCBK:US

Linear Technology Corp. 62.06 LLTC 40 56.5

Lincoln National Corp. 63.65 LNC:US 48 56.0

Nabors Industries Ltd. 14.16 NBR:US 8 11.8

New York Times Company 12.65 NYT 12 11.9

NYSE Euronext (Price 15nov13 at ICE Takeover) 45.29 ICE/NYX

Oracle Corp. 40.09 ORCL:US 37 38.1

Sysco Corp. 54.10 SYY:US 32 49.2

Teco Energy Inc. ($27.64 EMR takesover TE 30jun16) 27.64 TE:US

Terex Corp. 29.34 TEX:US 20 25.8

Tyson Foods Inc. CL A 58.96 TSN:US 35 50.7

Unum Group 42.60 UNM:US 22 40.0

Waste Management Inc. 69.57 WM:US 47 64.0

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22 December 2016

(NB: stoploss settings not used to keep capital safe. We prefer risk aversion using collaring options)

BlackSwanSleepingTM Portfolio Value (incl. Dividends) 22 December 2016 / 30 November 2012

87523.50 / 43465.00 Gain 48.7

months 101.37%

Current Cash (ICE/NYX takeover 15nov13; HCBK takenover 02dec2015;

TE takenover 30jun16)

Dividends earned

8305.00

5335.50

IRR pa 18.82%

Current ‘Ready’ Cash, such a lot to be sitting

idle instead of making wealth in adding to your

portfolio, or BookBuilderTM’s for your gifting

into children’s tax sheltered self-directed fund

building for their wealth independence.

OR, FESTIVUS with the rest of us, far below!

13640.50

Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility in case of such irrational

market mavens’ pressures of Q3-2014 through Q1-2016. Irrationally volatile swings occurred without

regard for reason as stock prices sharply rebounded. Capital was defended by stoploss settings as intended

but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown below.

If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but carried-on in a slumber as above, you

gained a tidy 101.37% for snoozing like Rip Van Winkle for 48.7 months, a net 18.82% IRR p.a.

gain, you have $13,640.50 (used-less) cash in your wallet and now rockets return and land on earth,

standing-up. Spooky, but true, the real economy is still moving, up.

In the long haul all of those 19 ‘likeables’ rebounded above their buy-in.Mostr all are doubled and tripled in

price. The ‘likeables’ are defined by and remain above their Risk Price and $topLoss in dominant positive

markets. However below one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’ 2 of 3 gain tendencies at work in a

mixed market that was strongly negative on ‘news’ without substance over these past 27 months, on

newspeak unrelated to business of firms in the real economy. Managers make 90% of trading but they never

know where they are or which way to go. It is your money you gave them, they are gambling with..

Above no stoplosses were applied. Below we show the effect of the stoploss set only on quarterly basis

gained 96.06% at the end of 48.7 months for little effort by our model small investor managing their

personal savings portfolio only once each month and still over that interval including the last rough 8

quarters negative volatility achieving 18.12% IRR p.a. That is very likeable.

That demonstrated yield of 19.56% IRR p.a. is further proof our Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ risk

averse discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM. Investors need to know Risk Price.

Solo 50K on NYSE ”likeables” Firms Market

Price

Symbol SF (Risk Price)

Stop/Loss

See old posts for Buy-ins 01 December 2012 *100 shares each

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22 December 2016

Buy-ins 22feb16 *100 shares each

Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 09sep16) CAG:US 29 35.8

Comcast Corp. ($63.9 StopLoss 22oct16) CMCSA:US

56 67.5

CMS Energy Corp. ($38.7 StopLoss 02mar16) CMS:US 27 38.3

Deluxe Corporation ($66.4 StopLoss 29sep16) DLX 47 67.6

Diamond Foods Inc. (LNCS acquires DMND 01mar16) DMND 21 0.0

Edison International ($68.7 StopLoss 22mar16) EIX 58 66.4

Fidelity National Infrmtn Srvs ($57.9 StopLoss 24feb16) FIS:US 50 70.5

International Paper Co 53.79 IP:US 35 48.4

Kroger Company ($35.6 StopLoss 22mar16) KR:US 22 31.5

Masco Corp. ($30.6 StopLoss 29apr16) MAS:US 20 28.5

Buy-ins 22mar16 *100 shares each

Linear Technology Corp. ($43.7 StopLoss 04may16) LLTC 40 56.8

Sysco Corp 56.25 SYY:US 35 51.2

Total System Services Inc. ($47.6 StopLoss 16aug16) TSS:US 30 44.0

Buy-ins 22apr16 *100 shares

Edison International ($70.2 StopLoss 04oct16) EIX 58 66.4

Kroger Company 34.98 KR:US 22 31.5

Buy-ins 22may16 *100 shares each

Iron Mountain Inc. ($34.1 StopLoss 06oct16) IRM:US 29 29.2

ProLogis Inc. ($50.6 StopLoss 05oct16) PLD:US 37 47.2

Rofin-Sinar Tech. Inc. (COHR takesover RDSTI 07nov16) RSTI:US 32 29.9

Buy-ins 22jul16 *100 shares each

American Electric Power Co. ($66.2 StopLoss 16aug16) AEP 53 58.2

Bank of New York Mellon Corp 47.61 BK:US 35 44.3

Buy-ins 22aug16 *100 shares each

Mondelez International Inc. ($40.8 StopLoss 01dec16) 40.80 MDLZ 39 42.3

Altria Group Inc. 67.68 MO 48 61.6

ServiceNow Inc. 74.55 NOW 57 66.3

Buy-ins 22sep16 *100 shares each

Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 10nov16 split 1285/1000) CAG 29 35.8

Buy-ins 22oct16 *100 shares each

Autodesk Inc. ($68.4 StopLoss 02dec16) 68.40 ADS 49 67.9

Deluxe Corporation ($60.3 StopLoss 03nov16) DLX 47 67.6

EastGroup Properties Inc. ($64.8 StopLoss 03nov16) EGP 51 66.9

First Cash Financial Services 45.90 FCFS 40 40.9

Iron Mountain Inc. ($30.9 StopLoss 14nov16) IRM 29 29.2

Buy-ins 22nov16 *100 shares each

International Game Tech. ($24.0 StopLoss 13dec16) 24.00 IGT 14 22.2

Landstar System Inc 84.80 LSTR 59 78.0

PayPal Holdings Incorporated 39.68 PYPL 37 37.3

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22 December 2016

Ross Stores Inc. 67.11 ROST 48 61.7

Williams-Sonoma Incorporated 49.77 WSM:US 49 40.8

Yelp Incorporated 38.23 YELP 18 28.7

Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -

incl. Dividends) 22 December 2016 / 30 November 2012 85437.00 / 43465.00 Gain 48.7

months 96.57%

IRR pa 18.12%

Current Cash (after 22aug16 buy-ins 228.00

Net Cash (after StopLoss *100 shares 13320.00

Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 13548.00


SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

BB&T Corp 47.31 BBT 32 43.5

Best Buy Co. Inc 41.38 BBY 26 37.2

Unum Group 44.53 UNM:US 22 41.0

Net Cash Forward 22oct16 *100 shares 141.00

Dividends earned 5854.00

Total Cash Available

5995.00

StockTakers Gaming in the StockYards with options on: Zylem Inc. Q: How do we do +26% p.a. IRR, you ask? Or, “why do you always buy-in 100 share blocks?” Or, “How

can StockTakers 12% Bond sustain 2.874% per quarter dividend to bond holders?”

A: We seek and secure controls on risk with collaring options taken from other Stockyard dogs and traders

to guide our hold positions and control exits on ‘zoomers’ we filter from the ‘pack’ of ‘likeables’ in the ‘B’

partition of the market Risk Price gives us to work with. The pack of identified ‘zoomers’ we can risk

manage, because we know better, to achieve a segment obtaining even 75% p.a. IRR in a hangdog market25.

If you used $4591.00 ‘idle’ cash in your cache,

for which 22jun16 you did add a 100 block of

Xylem Inc. to your growing wealth cache, plus

29aug16, gave you $0.155 dividend too! Same

dividend is confirmed 07dec16, 1.3% dividend

coupon is better than bonds.

Humm … from 14.95% gain in three months

the market bull-ooneys backed off to 6.72%

gain in three months, is very nice! Very

likeable as we prefer, and we hold! We bought

their option short call down at our stop and put

option to cover the ends of 10% range on

market volatility of record, for a nice ‘side-bar’

gain of at least 49 on short sell and 56 long, as

22dec16 51.130 29aug16 +0.155

07nov16 +0.155

51.440

XYL:US 32 Vq 46.0

Vy 48.9

22jun16 45.910

6 mos 12.05%

Risk Price fundamental worth SF stepped-up sharply from 53 to 32 in our patent

analysis of XYL current SEC 8-K reporting completed long term financing through DB

as necessary to purchase Sensus Worldwide Ltd., an agreement adding

smart metering systems to enhance its base in water and waste water metering

and pumping technologies an overlaying of quarterly balance sheet data report that

increases the worth as an expression of SF in showing healthy use of in-hand cash

capitalizing the firm innovation. Next up Q3

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22 December 2016

we hold. Good firm placing itself in good

capital position for surge in water

infrastructure purchasing, as the world expands

its needs for water treatment and old systems

replacement.

report release will be 01nov16. The market liked the quarterly report,

gaining share price right through election dyspepsia. What will he, won’t he, say or

do next moment after this, drain the morass or grab it, spread it all over the

land.

Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -

incl. Dividends) 22 December 2016 / 30 November 2012 85437.00 / 43465.00 Gain 48.7

months 96.57%

IRR pa 18.12%

Removal of Quantitative Eating combined with oil and gas bloat made unusual down-side

volatility in all markets this past 2 years. To that adjustment older Greece and newer China issues

added spooky gossip, a ‘sea-change’, of stoplosses were triggered by a trope of managers who

cannot figure out where they are.

Fundamentals of consumer spending, cars and house prices all rose while the managers threw your

money on the dice floor. We can buy back ‘likeables’ at lower prices and recover. Stock Prices

rebounded well above the prior stoploss again indicating less tight stops should be used again. The

normal mooing of herds grazing has returned. With our ‘likeables’ we can benefit most from the

fluttering of uncertainty in the market that is made by ‘active’ fund managers who have no

direction, no compass, as they lose the cache of their clients in their churn for their fees income.

Balance sheets did not flip-flop, but portfolio managers did, unrelated to ‘fundamentals’ of value

investing26. Our tighter $toploss values reduced risk of loss while the bears grumbled. All of the

stocks in our public portfolios27 simply rebounded, much higher. Few can still be bought back for

less than they stopped out weeks ago even as the markets regain confidence. Take the bonus when

it is there and buy those back. Staying in the market gets the rise as the tide swell comes in.

Skimming for advantageous collaring options to protect your capital takes time, away from

working at what you know you do best. Collaring of options can be very useful in added gains but

it requires a lot more attention than small investors can lavish.

Stoploss is a simpler approach. It is time to loosen the easily managed $toploss values as positive

mooing returns, as the bears picnic, rebuild for gain as markets liquidity has returned. Price has no

mass - gossip fluctuates and gyrates like a dervish, gravity less so but we know more about it.

Most of the US is nearing NAIRU full employment. Political shift to fuller renewal of

infrastructure is now at forefront with income equality initiatives. All the ‘canards’ must walk the

political stage while the real economy slowly inches its recovery forward, while absorbing other

people’s abuse of ‘credit float’ in the sea of moral hazard they had created.

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22 December 2016

The reality that ‘treacle-down’ never worked is roosting, as much as, austerity is impoverishing in

hard times when innovation and productivity are needed to ‘credit float’ warranted investment in

valiant business processes and enterprises in the real economy. That is the expectation society has

of corporations given fictitious personhood in accepting as public liability for corporate risk of

failure that society will obtain benefits if corporate success is won. Society needs the collective use

of ‘credit float’. Society wants those risks for socio-economic benefits to all trading connections

for ‘credit float’ given to the federation of interests that is incorporated with the enterprise. How

the corporation is governed and the added value distributed is where we need to workout better.

Austerity the FSB sees as necessary in support of retail bank reserves to limit imprudence of moral

hazard by bankers, which they pay from their resources without the public purse. The high margins

bankers have imposed in recent years has reduced liquidity, damping markets instead of spurring,

the amount of ‘credit float’ available for real economy enterprises, creating worth and wealth in

their business process, making ‘money’ to put in all our pockets and allocate as we wish or save in

‘likeables’ equities hopeful of gaining better income than our labour alone provides.

(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)

Analog Devices Inc 73.45 ADI:US 50 68.3

Automatic Data Processing Inc. 102.6 ADP:US 77 97.5

NASDAQ OMX Group Incorporated 67.21 NDAQ 35 60.5

Xylem Incorporated 51.13 XYL:US 32 46.0

USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00

See old posts for Buy-ins 15 September 2013 *100 shares each

Buy-ins 22jan16*100 shares each

Ameren Corp. ($47.0 StopLoss 21apr16) AEE:US 38 48.2

Allegion PLC ($58.2 StopLoss 03feb16) ALLE:US 50 60.7

Broadcom Corp. ($54.67 BRCM buys-in shares 29jan16) BRCM 0.0

Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 09sep16) CAG:US 29 35.8

Campbell Soup ($60.1 StopLoss 21apr16) CPB 37 55.4

Delta Air Lines Inc. ($44.7 stopLoss 27jan16) DAL 45 45.3

Dow Chemical Co. ($41.1 stopLoss 20jan16) DOW:US 44 54.6

E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.0 stopLoss 29jan16) ETFC:US 20 31.8

Fortune Brnds Hm. & Scty Inc. ($46.8 stopLoss 20jan16) FBHS:US 30 50.0

General Mills Inc. ($65.1 StopLoss 09sep16) GIS 50 57.5

Givaudan SA ADR ($38.8 $topLoss 21oct16) GVDNY:U

S 30 33.2

Mondelez International Inc. ($39.9 stopLoss 03feb16) MDLZ:US 39 42.3

Tyson Foods Inc CL A ($67.5 $topLoss 21oct16) TSN:US 35 51.2

Total System Services Inc. ($42.8 StopLoss 27jan16) TSS:US 30 44.0

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22 December 2016

Texas Instruments Inc. 74.20 TXN:US 50 67.5

Buy-ins 22feb16*100 shares each

Ameren Corp. ($47.0 StopLoss 21apr16) AEE:US 38 48.2

American Electric Power Co. ($61.3 StopLoss 01mar16) AEP 53 58.2

Cavium Incorporated ($55.0 StopLoss 18apr16) CAVM:US 40 52.9

Cablevision Sys. Corp. (21jun16 CVC mergers private) CVC:US 17 0.0

E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.3 StopLoss 07apr16) ETFC:US 20 31.8

Mondelez International Inc. ($41.6 StopLoss 27jun16) MDLZ:US 39 42.3

Patterson Companies Inc. ($43.3 StopLoss 01mar16) PDCO 38 37.6

Sealed Air Corp. ($48.1 StopLoss 28apr16) SEE:US 30 43.0

Buy-ins 22mar16*100 shares each

Lululemon Athletica Inc. ($60.2 StopLoss 13may16) LULU:US 49 56.8

Southwest Airlines Co. ($42.9 StopLoss 04may16) LUV 39 46.7 Buy-ins 22apr16 *100 shares each

Ameren Corp. ($47.3 StopLoss 04oct16) AEE:US 38 48.2

Bemis Co Inc. ($49.6 StopLoss 13may16) BMS 40 44.8

CBRE Group Inc. ($25.8 StopLoss 27jun16) CBG 28 28.2

First Cash Financial Serv. ($47.4 StopLoss 09sep16) FCFS 40 40.9

Waste Management Inc. 70.79 WM:US 47 65.1 Buy-ins 22may16 *100 shares each

Bemis Co Inc 48.15 BMS:US 40 44.8

Southwest Airlines Co. (N* $36.28 StopLoss 22aug16) LUV:US 39 46.7

Altria Group Inc. 67.68 MO:US 48 61.6

Sealed Air Corp. ($43.4 StopLoss 27jun16) SEE:US 30 43.0

Buy-ins 22jun16 *100 shares each

Hormel Foods Corporation 35.15 HRL:US 25 30.6

Buy-ins 22jul16 *100 shares each

Lexmark Int’l Inc. CL A ($40.49 Apex takesover 28nov16) 40.49 LXK 35 36.0

Masco Corp. ($29.8 StopLoss 01nov16) MAS:US 20 28.5

Maxim Integrated Products Inc. 39.16 MXIM 32 36.8

Buy-ins 22aug16 *100 shares each

Spectra Energy Corp. 41.67 SE 25 36.7

Buy-ins 22sep16 *100 shares each

Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 $topLoss 10nov16) CAG:US 29 35.8

General Mills Inc. ($60.5 $topLoss 21oct16) GIS 50 57.5

Pinnacle Foods Inc. ($47.1 $topLoss 10nov16) PF:US 28 48.7

Buy-ins 22oct16 *100 shares each

Analog Devices Inc. ($68.5 $topLoss 02dec16) 68.50 ADI:US 50 68.3

Cavium Incorporated 62.93 CAVM:US 40 52.9

Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc. 54.98 FBHS:US 30 50.0

Givaudan SA ADR ($36.4 $topLoss 10nov16) GVDNY:US

30 33.2

“

Page 11 of 15



22 December 2016


Barnes Group Incorporated 47.45 B 25 43.7

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. 47.61 BK:US 35 44.3

eBay Inc. 29.54 EBAY:US 24 27.2

Givaudan SA ADR 35.69 GVDNY:US

30 33.2

USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value

22 December 2016 (dividends inclu.) / 15 September 2013 79242.95 / 50912.00 Gain 39.3

months 55.63%

IRR pa 14.39%

Current 2013 Cash (after 22oct16 buy-ins) 192.00

Net Cash (StopLoss sales) *100 shares 6850.00

Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 7042.00

Buy-ins 22dec16 *100 shares each

SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

Principal Financial Group Inc 58.42 PFG:US 46 53.2

ProLogis 51.90 PLD:US 37 47.2

Net Cash Forward 22oct16 *100 shares 59.00

Dividends earned 2651.95

Total Cash Available

2710.95

That is ‘idle’ cash in your cache, for which if

you did consider adding a 100 share block of

Inteliquent Incorporated.to your growing

wealth cache, Surprise, you got stopped out at

$18.50 02aug2016 but made $133.00 gain in

one month, very nice!! Buy back at the better

current price of $15.31, it was still a ‘likeable’

for investing in itself and innovation of product

even if the mavens ‘expected’ better Q2 profit,

you snacked on Zacks bet and earned yourself

a nice bottle of 2009 Lynch-Bages from

Zachy’s for your dinner.

Or, did you add to your cache from your

dividends cash by buying in another.

22oct16-Subtle rise this month as the rest of

the market turtled defensively, overcomes

lawyers claims of SEC misinformation, as

IQNT allies with ZipWhip shares investment.

22dec16 22.90 bought back 22aug16 @

15.31

IQNT 11 21.1

“

Page 12 of 15



22 December 2016

Jabil Circuit Inc. 22aug16 to 22dec16

JBL bought-in 22 aug16 @20.93 to your cache

For a very nice $147.00, 7.02% gain in one

month!

Goldman, Motley, Monkey and Zacks all came

late for the party. They get the leftovers.

But, you, Bubby Girrrly, you are buying

another bottle of 2009 Lynch-Bages at

Zachy’s?

22nov16- Modest decline with the market, but

Zack must have been listening? JBL repeats

same quarterly dividend 0.08 for 1.53% pa for

10nov16, better than bonds for your money, If

you have held, then that is your 2.25% gain in

three months.

22dec16 –yummy, 15.38% in four months, for

a yield of $322.00. Take a seasonal trip to

Zacks for 2 bottles of Ch.Lynch-Bages 2009.

Happy Festivus, with the rest of us!!

22dec16 @ 24.07 10nov16 @ 0.08

JBL 20 21.7

22dec16 @ 24.15

22 aug16 @ 20.93

Meanwhile, your herd of ‘likeables’ beauties

is nicely mooing your grass.

So, now that you have divested and are

enjoying your Lynch-Bages at your family

festive table, let’s play a new round of this

game again with your cache cash allocated on

current newbies in the ‘likeables’ pool.

StockTakers Fun & Games in the StockYards with: FDML, EEP, SYMC, TER, IPG, VLO, UIS, SIRI

Buy-ins 22dec16 *100 shares each

SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

FederalMogul Corp 10.47 FDML 5 8.0

Enbridge Energy Partners LP CL A 25.08 EEP 17 18.8

Symantec Corp. 24.11 SYMC 16 21.7

Teradyne Inc 25.59 TER 16 23.8

Interpublic Group of Cos 23.58 IPG 17 22.2

Vale SA 7.79 VALE 8 6.4

Unisys Corporation 15.35 UIS 10 11.5

Sirius XM Radio Inc. 4.51 SIRI 4 4.2

The BST cache put in action

FESTIVUS with the rest of us 22dec2016 13648.00

“

Page 13 of 15



22 December 2016

Meanwhile, your herd of ‘likeables’ beauties

is nicely mooing your grass.

USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value

22 December 2016 (dividends inclu.) / 15 September 2013 79242.95 / 50912.00 Gain 39.3

months 55.63%

IRR pa 14.39%

Stop-loss settings defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such irrational market

mavens’ pressures trading on ‘newspeak’ and gossip. Irrationally volatile swings occurred in the past 18

months as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for any real reason. New highs were recorded

in markets showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must rebuild the

portfolio from capital protective $topLoss sales with successive replacement buy-ins as shown above.

If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, grateful most rebounded

above their Risk Price and $topLoss, some are ‘zoomers’ some are clearly ‘laggards’ needing to be

shunned. However one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’2 of 3 tendency in wobbling mixed markets

with Solo50K BSTTM continued gaining. As market behaviours shifted sharply up and down risk aversion

pays with less risk and better gains. More stable trading seems to have returned, to contented mooing.

No one is claiming DJI to hit 20000 this December, as they did last year. But feeding frenzy has gripped on

promised infrastructure financing, the XYZ-millenials will be paying for the next 40 years as deficit debts

will balloon under the Yuge Welfare Queen from Queens. He has never minded debt so long as someone

else paid. That is GOP 101, per, Dick Cheney, “Deficits do not matter, Reagan taught us that.” Cut welfare

to single parent and child households and have States shove that Federal money into frat-boy bursaries and

marriage counselling for young upper middle class couples28. Empty all your pockets, say good-bye to it.

That is the only change voted, worst of the same corporatocracy, the corporate command economy29.

StockTakers helps small investors grow their wealth and attain liquidity with their own savings30. To the

accredited investor StockTakers offers the 12% Bond, we do all the work and take all the risk.

Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. Because we can, you can, too.

The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their

methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in. At their best 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss,

not adding value, or covering inflation and their fees – you lose. They cannot model a fair price or

value. Nonsense told often enough can even become politically correct, even as legal sinecure.

Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and

Liquidity because we have proven our risk aversion works, consistently obtaining both low risk

and AlphaSmartTM high gain. Our Risk Price is what investors must know to defend their capital.

Market behaviour prefers the “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids up their price. Our

method is proven. Because we can, you can31.

In our Modal Geometry32 theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:


“

Page 14 of 15



22 December 2016

1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly

weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared

to be responsible for); and,

2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is

owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its

trading connections).

The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded by rigourous observation of corporate ledgers

relation to balance sheets as business process33 adds value. That is aided with logic, epistemology,

and some powerful mathematics. You have proof in these TaxCharityTM portfolios performances.

Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables”

tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 gaining for the long term. This we show proof positive, in our

TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios continued gain.

Know What You Have. Have What You Know.

Our view is risk averse. Of course we earn our fees for taking all the risk. Mail us for our help.

Hans Goetze,

Architypes Inc. [email protected] and StockTakers Limited Head Office

351 Chemin Boulanger Sutton, PQ J0E 2K0 450 538-1270 647 608-2176

1 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 2 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/new-bank-tithe their historic high margin is their ‘private sales tax’ 6+prime 0.25%=6.25%

instead of 3.25% http://www.money-rates.com/prime-rate-history.htm “Historically, the prime rate is set 300 points above the federal

funds rate.” http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/222-years-interest-history-one-chart-173358843.html the average rate

has been 5.18% since the start of this country’s history. “Any time we break above it, we get into trouble,” says Louise Yamada. 3 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet raised reserve ratio lowers leverage of money multiplier of loans interest paid.

Banks response has been to double their margin to ensure ‘someone else is going to die, so bankers slurp the champagne and caviar’ 4 http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-from.html 5 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/new-bank-tithe the triumvirate tools, direct intervention in TARP; market intervention with

Quantitative Eating; and interest rate setting have been exhausted into sluggish growth by banks raising average margin from 3 to

6% benefiting themselves at society expense (as a 3% sales tax piled on as if an interest rate rise displacing FED role mediating

money market rate) to depress results of increased productivity on flat wages and low wage service jobs creation as corporate cash

ratio on balance sheets remains high reduced only by mergers at inflated stock prices for management bonuses 6 Class action suit has been filed on TD Bank for importing known defective coin counters in 2013 for a 20% skim of main street

retailers’ cash deposits; and, another suit for their breach of variable rate consumer credit contracts surcharging as racketeering.

http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/


http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/new-bank-tithe

http://www.money-rates.com/prime-rate-history.htm

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/222-years-interest-history-one-chart-173358843.html

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet

http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-from.html

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/new-bank-tithe

“

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22 December 2016

7 Recent The Economist ‘Schumpeter’ column asks where false equivalences in management guru strategies are really going.

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21711909-what-martin-luther-did-catholic-church-needs-be-done-business-gurus-

management?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/20161215n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/8374158/n What and who do they serve with poison pills? 8 A. Sorkin, Too Big to Fail, 2009, Richard Fuld CEO at Lehman did this instead of innovating changes, p 126-132; C-suites share

bonus drives their concerned efforts, p 54-57 deal with Warren Buffet notes intent of J. Gutfreund at Salomon Bros bailout; R. Gasso

bonus on NYSE IPO, p52; Robert Steel at Goldman IPO p 67, Wachovia, p 409-17 181-3;. John Mack on Fuld’s merger discussion

p186-195; Erin Callan currying market on quarterly report, p 33-5; J. Dimon on Bear Stearns shareholders p.37; Timothy Geithner is

self- deceiving or duplicitous with the neoclassical redefinition of ‘The Invisible Hand’ p37 or who the bailout helped, italics p 409 9 http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm 10 http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/ 11 http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/ 12 J.K. Galbraith, The Great Crash, 1929, NY, 1954 & 1997, ISBN 0-395-85999-9, not regulators, bankers, (p120-41) or economists

(p143-54 knew more than populist romancing, that delusion covering what was later discerned in courts as rapacious banking

activity fueling speculation by investment trusts in highly leveraged options trading aided by bankers (supported by their taking Fed

rediscount loans after client deposits) made margin loans available, bankers who were also side-betting inside trading for themselves,

remedied to extent by 1933 & 34 Bank and SEC Acts as repealed in 1990’s lobby, ended in pantomimic shrugged ineptithet, “who

knew?’ claiming their ineptness behind the curtain where they are supposed having scrutiny their mandate. See also, R. F. Bruner &,

S. D. Carr, The Panic of 1907; for rapacious exploits J. P. Morgan used to kill trust-bank competition and add Tennessee Coal & Oil

to US Steel as uncovered in Pujo Congressional hearings, 1912, shortly before his death. Under pressure Federal Reserve Bank was

revived, by the banks and remains as adjunct tool of the banks paid for by public funds; H. Goetze, Midas Miasma, March 2011. 13 Hans Goetze, Feast or Famine, November 2015 14 Leading proponent of Modern Portfolio Theory, Peter L. Bernstein disaffected realized it was ‘exposing investors to risk while

productive way for making the professionals a living’ http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf 15 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/judge-by-company-they-keep 16 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji 17 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12 18 http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/ 19 http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/ 20 http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/ 21 https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi 22 http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/ 23 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond 5 year, 15 million callable, paying 2.874% quarterly to accredited

investors http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/have-a-slice 24 https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/ 25 http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/ 26 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor 27 http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/ 28 NPR radio does journalism, seeks answers to tough questions. The MuddleStreamMedia do not do journalism. They sell salacious

gossip and fictions to grab eyeballs for advertisers and cannot claim rightful membership of the Fifth Estate, they verify nothing http://www.npr.org/2016/08/22/490245470/20-years-since-welfares-overhaul-results-are-mixed the GOP states have subverted

TENF reform to deny the needy support, giving 75% of these federal funds to wealthier constituent programmes. 29 John Perkins, Confession of an Economic Hitman, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-a6jzU0YgQ the book was found on

Osama Bin-Laden’s night table. Noam Chomsky fills out this ‘ice-berg’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97eV9IW0sSk as Neil

De Grasse Tyson explains it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8WYriay8MY 30 Hans Goetze, Open Letter to Deborah, 2015 31 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 32 “The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006. 33 http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm

http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/


http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/judge-by-company-they-keep

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/

http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/

https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi

http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/have-a-slice

https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor

http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/

http://www.npr.org/2016/08/22/490245470/20-years-since-welfares-overhaul-results-are-mixed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-a6jzU0YgQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97eV9IW0sSk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8WYriay8MY


http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

Economy & Finance

BlackSwanTradingTM 22dec16