Sean Cadigan
Memorial University
3 May 2017
The Transition from Fish to Oil? A Historical
Perspective on Newfoundland and Labrador
Argument
NL’s environmental context: cold-ocean coastal.
Inimical to industrialization and urbanization by settler society.
Long-term pattern of problematic/ruinous economic diversification attempts.= poor management and over-capacity in fisheries.
= the fisheries collapse of 1992.
Oil = boom & bust cycle is a problematic replacement.
A Fishing History
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1836 1857 1869 1874 1884 1891 1901 1911 1921 1935 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
NL Population (Rounded to Nearest 000), 1836-2011
Total Pop.
Fishery: Merchants, truck and household
production
New Seal Hunt
Ecological Crisis: NF’s Saltfish
Exports, 1805-1884
Note: (1 cwt. = 10,000), Fish Prices (US $10) and population (‘000).
Sources: S. Ryan, Fish Out of Water (St. John’s, 1986), 250-260; & D. Vickers, Cod fish price index, Philadelphia
180518151825183618451857186918741884
0
50
100
150
200
Fish Exports
Price
Population
Employment in Fisheries & All Other Areas,
1845-84
Source: NF, Census of Newfoundland, 1845-1884
1845 1857 1869 1874 1884
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Legend
Other
Fisheries
Accounting for Recoveries in NF Saltfish
Exports, 1805-1884
Factors 1815 Peak 1857 Peak 1874 Peak
Market
Conditions?
Napoleonic era
monopoly
None None
Effort by
Gear?
-small boat
-baited
handlines
-some seines
+ jiggers
+ intensive seining
+ baited trawl lines+ jack boats
+ gill nets
+ cod traps
Effort by
Area?
- inside bay
headlands
+ Labrador
stationers
+ outside
headlands
+ northern
Lab. floaters
Ecological Troubles:
Cod Fishery
The fact is, the
species is declining,
though we don’t choose
to admit it.Colonial Secretary John Bemister,
1868
A Ruinous
National Policy:
railway, west + ….
Protected Manufacturing:
St. John’s vs. Outports
Industrial Staples: mining & pulp/paper
Grand Falls, 1909Anglo-Newfoundland
Development Co., 1903+
99-year lease
Cut pulp logs for free
All mineral & water rights
Extra 10,000 acres around
mill & shipping facilities
Import equipment duty free
Unemployment and
Squires Govt., 1928-32
Squires reelected in 1928
with FPU support
following years of scandal
Deepening depression
= govt. borrow from
Canada & cut relief
Death of Democracy: Commission of
Govt. 16 Feb. 1934
Governed by Commission
1934-39
Land Settlements
Adult Education
J.H. Gorvin: “Act to Facilitate the Economic
Development of Special Areas of Newfoundland.” 1940
Expansion of Bowaters pulp and paper mill at Corner
Brook
World War II
Post-war: Joining Canada
Welfare State Promises
Stage 1 (to 1954): failed diversification
Stage 2 (post-1954): industrial staple mega-
projects:
IOC & Labrador City Churchill Falls
Economic Nationalism
Fisheries
Offshore Oil
Churchill Falls
Fisheries Over-
expansion
• 1986: 201 registered fish plants
• employing people in 173 communities
• 182 got fish from inshore fishery
• 12 got fish from offshore fleets
Oil: The Boom’s a Bust
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
$ (
tho
usan
ds)
Fiscal Year
Revenue Boom
Offshore Royalties+ Mining Taxesand Royalties ($thousands)
NL GrossRevenues ($thousands)
Revenue fromOffshore oil andMining on accrualbasis as % ofGross revenues onaccrual basis
Source Public Accounts of Newfoundland and Labrador 1997-98 to 2008-09 Volume I.
Provincial Spending Boom:
Williams Years
2004: “Lean State” attack on public sector
2008-09 Expropriation of AbitibiBowater +
aids CEP
2008 CUPE agreement
“the best collective agreement for public
sector workers anywhere in the past 25
years”
Total Oil Production (barrels), NL, 1997-
2015
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Oil Production (Barrels)
Source: Economics and Statistics Branch (Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency)
Oil Bust
Source: GNL, Consolidated Revenue Fund Financial Information For the Year Ended 31 March 2016, p. 3
http://www.fin.gov.nl.ca/fin/publications/pdf/CRF_Fin_Info_2015_16.pdf, accessed 26/04/17
Gross Domestic Product at Basic Prices, By Industry
(NAICS), NL, 1997-2014 (Millions of Chained 2007 Dollars)
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
All Industries
Goods-Producing Sector
Services-Producing Sector
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &Hunting
Mining and Oil Extraction
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale, Retail,Accommodations and FoodServicesFinance, Insurance and Real Estate
Public Services (Education,Healthcare, Social Assistance,Public Administration)
Source: Economics and Statistics Branch (NL Statistics Agency), from Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts, 28/04/15
Employment by Detailed Industry, NL, 1997-2014,
Annual Averages in Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
All Industries
Goods-Producing Sector
Services-Producing Sector
Agriculture, Foresty, Fishing andHunting
Oil and Gas Extraction
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale, Retail,Accommodations & Food Services
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate andLeasing
Public Services (Education,Healthcare, Social Assistance,Public Administration)
Source: Economics and Statistics Branch (NL Statistics Agency), from Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA), "Employment in Fishing Industry (NAICS1), Newfoundland
and Labrador, Annual Averages, 1987 to 2009" and "Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland and Labrador 1987 -
2009, Annual Averages," January 2010.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
An
nu
al A
ve
rag
e #
Em
plo
ye
d (
00
0s
)
Year
Employment by Select Primary and Related Industries, NL, 1987-2009
Forestry, Fishing, Mining,Oil and Gas with Paperand Fish Processing
Foresty, Logging, SupportActivities and PaperManufacture
Fishing, Hunting andTrapping and SeafoodProcessing
Oil and Gas Extraction,Mining & Mix Mining,Support Activities
Source: Data derived from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA), Department of Finance, Govt. NL, based on
custom tabulations from StatsCan, Labour Force Survey, 20 January 2010
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Em
op
loye
d (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Year
Employment by Region and Economic Sector, NL, 1987-2009
Avalon Service Sector
Other Areas ServiceSector
Avalon Goods Sector
Other Areas GoodsSector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
em
plo
yed
X 1
000
perc
en
tag
e
Year
Employment by Select Goods and Services Industries, NL, 1987-2009
Construction as % of Total Employment
Oil and Gas Extraction, Mining & Mix Mining, Support Activities as % of Total Employment
Retail, wholesale, accommodations & food services as % of Total Employment
Forestry, Fishing with Paper and Fish Processing
All Construction and Oil and Mining and Related
Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA), "Employment in Fishing Industry (NAICS1),
Newfoundland and Labrador, Annual Averages, 1987 to 2009" and "Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS),
Newfoundland and Labrador 1987 - 2009, Annual Averages," January 2010.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
pe
rso
ns X
10
00
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Year
Employment by Sector and Sex, NL, 1987-2009
Females as % of Service Sector Females as % of Goods Sector
Goods Sector (persons X 1000) Services Sector (persons X 1000)
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 282-0008 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS), sex and age group, computed annual average (persons x 1,000)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Am
ou
nt
($,0
00)
Base Year
Total Personal Income and Income from Wages, Salaries and Commissions by Gender, NL, 1997-2006
Females' totalpersonal Income
Females' Wages ,Salaries &Commission Income
Males' total personalincome
Males' Wages ,Salaries &Commission Income
Source: NLSA, Govt. NL, Compiled by the Community Accounts Unit, based on Canada Customs and Revenue Agency
summary information as provided by Small Area and Administrative Data Division, StatsCan.
Employment by Goods/Service Sector (NAICS),
NL, 2010-16, Annual Averages (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
All Industries
Goods-Producing Sector
Services-Producing Sector
Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA),:”Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland and
Labrador, 1987-2016, Annual Averages, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Emp_Industry_NL_Annual_BS.pdf
Employment in Goods-Producing Sector
(NAICS), NL, 2010-16, Annual Averages (000s)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Goods-Producing Sector
Agriculture
Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Quarrying, Oiland Gas
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA),:”Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland and
Labrador, 1987-2016, Annual Averages, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Emp_Industry_NL_Annual_BS.pdf
Employment by Public/Private Service Sector
(NAICS), NL, 2010-16, Annual Averages (000s)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Services-Producing Sector
Private-Sector Services
Public-Sector Services
Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA),:”Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland
and Labrador, 1987-2016, Annual Averages, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Emp_Industry_NL_Annual_BS.pdf
Employment by Natural Resource Extraction
(NAICS), NL, 2010-16, Annual Averages (000s)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forestry and Logging withsupport activities
Fishing, Hunting andTrapping
Oil & Gas Extraction,Mining, Support Activities
Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA),:”Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland
and Labrador, 1987-2016, Annual Averages, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Emp_Industry_NL_Annual_BS.pdf
Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), NL,
2010-16, Annual Averages (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oil & Gas Extraction,Mining, SupportActivities
Trade
Construction
Educational Services
Health Care and SocialAssistance
Accommodation andfood services
Public administration
Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA),:”Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland and
Labrador, 1987-2016, Annual Averages, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Emp_Industry_NL_Annual_BS.pdf
Stable Economic Base?
Employment
$ (Revenue, GDP)
Conclusion
NL’s cold-ocean coastal environment meant dependency
on marine-resource exploitation, esp. fisheries.
Much of settler colonial history has been a denial
through attempted landward diversification.
Ironic legacy: increased public debt and depleted
fisheries.
The “promise of oil” so far has been of boom and bust,
which makes it difficult to know how good a
substitute/supplement it is for fisheries.