The Transition from Fish to Oil? A Historical Perspective ... · Argument NL’s environmental context: cold-ocean coastal. Inimical to industrialization and urbanization by settler

Sean Cadigan

Memorial University

3 May 2017

The Transition from Fish to Oil? A Historical

Perspective on Newfoundland and Labrador

Argument

NL’s environmental context: cold-ocean coastal.

Inimical to industrialization and urbanization by settler society.

Long-term pattern of problematic/ruinous economic diversification attempts.= poor management and over-capacity in fisheries.

= the fisheries collapse of 1992.

Oil = boom & bust cycle is a problematic replacement.

A Fishing History

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1836 1857 1869 1874 1884 1891 1901 1911 1921 1935 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

NL Population (Rounded to Nearest 000), 1836-2011

Total Pop.

Fishery: Merchants, truck and household

production

New Seal Hunt

Ecological Crisis: NF’s Saltfish

Exports, 1805-1884

Note: (1 cwt. = 10,000), Fish Prices (US $10) and population (‘000).

Sources: S. Ryan, Fish Out of Water (St. John’s, 1986), 250-260; & D. Vickers, Cod fish price index, Philadelphia

180518151825183618451857186918741884

0

50

100

150

200

Fish Exports

Price

Population

Employment in Fisheries & All Other Areas,

1845-84

Source: NF, Census of Newfoundland, 1845-1884

1845 1857 1869 1874 1884

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Legend

Other

Fisheries

Accounting for Recoveries in NF Saltfish

Exports, 1805-1884

Factors 1815 Peak 1857 Peak 1874 Peak

Market

Conditions?

Napoleonic era

monopoly

None None

Effort by

Gear?

-small boat

-baited

handlines

-some seines

+ jiggers

+ intensive seining

+ baited trawl lines+ jack boats

+ gill nets

+ cod traps

Effort by

Area?

- inside bay

headlands

+ Labrador

stationers

+ outside

headlands

+ northern

Lab. floaters

Ecological Troubles:

Cod Fishery

The fact is, the

species is declining,

though we don’t choose

to admit it.Colonial Secretary John Bemister,

1868

A Ruinous

National Policy:

railway, west + ….

Protected Manufacturing:

St. John’s vs. Outports

Industrial Staples: mining & pulp/paper

Grand Falls, 1909Anglo-Newfoundland

Development Co., 1903+

99-year lease

Cut pulp logs for free

All mineral & water rights

Extra 10,000 acres around

mill & shipping facilities

Import equipment duty free

Unemployment and

Squires Govt., 1928-32

Squires reelected in 1928

with FPU support

following years of scandal

Deepening depression

= govt. borrow from

Canada & cut relief

Death of Democracy: Commission of

Govt. 16 Feb. 1934

Governed by Commission

1934-39

Land Settlements

Adult Education

J.H. Gorvin: “Act to Facilitate the Economic

Development of Special Areas of Newfoundland.” 1940

Expansion of Bowaters pulp and paper mill at Corner

Brook

World War II

Post-war: Joining Canada

Welfare State Promises

Stage 1 (to 1954): failed diversification

Stage 2 (post-1954): industrial staple mega-

projects:

IOC & Labrador City Churchill Falls

Economic Nationalism

Fisheries

Offshore Oil

Churchill Falls

Fisheries Over-

expansion

• 1986: 201 registered fish plants

• employing people in 173 communities

• 182 got fish from inshore fishery

• 12 got fish from offshore fleets

Oil: The Boom’s a Bust

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

10000000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

$ (

tho

usan

ds)

Fiscal Year

Revenue Boom

Offshore Royalties+ Mining Taxesand Royalties ($thousands)

NL GrossRevenues ($thousands)

Revenue fromOffshore oil andMining on accrualbasis as % ofGross revenues onaccrual basis

Source Public Accounts of Newfoundland and Labrador 1997-98 to 2008-09 Volume I.

Provincial Spending Boom:

Williams Years

2004: “Lean State” attack on public sector

2008-09 Expropriation of AbitibiBowater +

aids CEP

2008 CUPE agreement

“the best collective agreement for public

sector workers anywhere in the past 25

years”

Total Oil Production (barrels), NL, 1997-

2015

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

160000000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Oil Production (Barrels)

Source: Economics and Statistics Branch (Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency)

Oil Bust

Source: GNL, Consolidated Revenue Fund Financial Information For the Year Ended 31 March 2016, p. 3

http://www.fin.gov.nl.ca/fin/publications/pdf/CRF_Fin_Info_2015_16.pdf, accessed 26/04/17

http://www.fin.gov.nl.ca/fin/publications/pdf/CRF_Fin_Info_2015_16.pdf

Gross Domestic Product at Basic Prices, By Industry

(NAICS), NL, 1997-2014 (Millions of Chained 2007 Dollars)

0.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

All Industries

Goods-Producing Sector

Services-Producing Sector

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &Hunting

Mining and Oil Extraction

Utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale, Retail,Accommodations and FoodServicesFinance, Insurance and Real Estate

Public Services (Education,Healthcare, Social Assistance,Public Administration)

Source: Economics and Statistics Branch (NL Statistics Agency), from Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts, 28/04/15

Employment by Detailed Industry, NL, 1997-2014,

Annual Averages in Thousands

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

All Industries



Agriculture, Foresty, Fishing andHunting

Oil and Gas Extraction

Utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale, Retail,Accommodations & Food Services

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate andLeasing

Public Services (Education,Healthcare, Social Assistance,Public Administration)

Source: Economics and Statistics Branch (NL Statistics Agency), from Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA), "Employment in Fishing Industry (NAICS1), Newfoundland

and Labrador, Annual Averages, 1987 to 2009" and "Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland and Labrador 1987 -

2009, Annual Averages," January 2010.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

An

nu

al A

ve

rag

e #

Em

plo

ye

d (

00

0s

)

Year

Employment by Select Primary and Related Industries, NL, 1987-2009

Forestry, Fishing, Mining,Oil and Gas with Paperand Fish Processing

Foresty, Logging, SupportActivities and PaperManufacture

Fishing, Hunting andTrapping and SeafoodProcessing

Oil and Gas Extraction,Mining & Mix Mining,Support Activities

Source: Data derived from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA), Department of Finance, Govt. NL, based on

custom tabulations from StatsCan, Labour Force Survey, 20 January 2010

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Em

op

loye

d (

tho

usa

nd

s)

Year

Employment by Region and Economic Sector, NL, 1987-2009

Avalon Service Sector

Other Areas ServiceSector

Avalon Goods Sector

Other Areas GoodsSector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

em

plo

yed

X 1

000

perc

en

tag

e

Year

Employment by Select Goods and Services Industries, NL, 1987-2009

Construction as % of Total Employment

Oil and Gas Extraction, Mining & Mix Mining, Support Activities as % of Total Employment

Retail, wholesale, accommodations & food services as % of Total Employment

Forestry, Fishing with Paper and Fish Processing

All Construction and Oil and Mining and Related

Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA), "Employment in Fishing Industry (NAICS1),

Newfoundland and Labrador, Annual Averages, 1987 to 2009" and "Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS),

Newfoundland and Labrador 1987 - 2009, Annual Averages," January 2010.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

pe

rso

ns X

10

00

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Year

Employment by Sector and Sex, NL, 1987-2009

Females as % of Service Sector Females as % of Goods Sector

Goods Sector (persons X 1000) Services Sector (persons X 1000)

Source: Statistics Canada, Table 282-0008 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by North American Industry

Classification System (NAICS), sex and age group, computed annual average (persons x 1,000)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Am

ou

nt

($,0

00)

Base Year

Total Personal Income and Income from Wages, Salaries and Commissions by Gender, NL, 1997-2006

Females' totalpersonal Income

Females' Wages ,Salaries &Commission Income

Males' total personalincome

Males' Wages ,Salaries &Commission Income

Source: NLSA, Govt. NL, Compiled by the Community Accounts Unit, based on Canada Customs and Revenue Agency

summary information as provided by Small Area and Administrative Data Division, StatsCan.

Employment by Goods/Service Sector (NAICS),

NL, 2010-16, Annual Averages (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

All Industries



Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA),:”Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland and

Labrador, 1987-2016, Annual Averages, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Emp_Industry_NL_Annual_BS.pdf

Employment in Goods-Producing Sector

(NAICS), NL, 2010-16, Annual Averages (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Agriculture

Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Quarrying, Oiland Gas

Utilities

Construction

Manufacturing



Employment by Public/Private Service Sector


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Private-Sector Services

Public-Sector Services

Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA),:”Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland

and Labrador, 1987-2016, Annual Averages, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Emp_Industry_NL_Annual_BS.pdf

Employment by Natural Resource Extraction


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Forestry and Logging withsupport activities

Fishing, Hunting andTrapping

Oil & Gas Extraction,Mining, Support Activities

Source: data complied from Economics and Statistics Branch (NLSA),:”Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), Newfoundland

and Labrador, 1987-2016, Annual Averages, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Emp_Industry_NL_Annual_BS.pdf

Employment by Detailed Industry (NAICS), NL,

2010-16, Annual Averages (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oil & Gas Extraction,Mining, SupportActivities

Trade

Construction

Educational Services

Health Care and SocialAssistance

Accommodation andfood services

Public administration



Stable Economic Base?

Employment

$ (Revenue, GDP)

Conclusion

NL’s cold-ocean coastal environment meant dependency

on marine-resource exploitation, esp. fisheries.

Much of settler colonial history has been a denial

through attempted landward diversification.

Ironic legacy: increased public debt and depleted

fisheries.

The “promise of oil” so far has been of boom and bust,

which makes it difficult to know how good a

substitute/supplement it is for fisheries.

Documents

The Transition from Fish to Oil? A Historical Perspective ... · Argument NL’s environmental context: cold-ocean coastal. Inimical to industrialization and urbanization by settler