Project Genetics
1
IStart
J Finish
2
Today’s journey
• Introduction • Genetics and DNA• Project DNA• Complexity Definition• Governance and MOP Framework• Representation • Complexity Definition Model
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PROJECT GENETICS
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Projectification exists on a global scale.
• Consider any industry, all progress is evidenced through projects
• The construction industry is almost totally dominated by project management
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• $57 trillion on infrastructure by 2030• Nine out of ten megaprojects go over budget2
Over - complexityOver-optimism Organisational dysfunctionalityPoor execution
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Genetics and DNA
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James Watson (left) and Francis Crick (1953)
John Holland (1975)
8
The USA National Human Genome Research Institute
http://www.genome.gov/10001204
Parallel
If the genetics in humans are not correct medical disorder ensues
If the genetics in projects are not correct project disorder ensues
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Project OrganisationWBSOBSRBSPBSCBSCoBSABS
ContractsContract formDouble jeopardy Supply chain membersRisk vs reward
CulturalLanguagesBehavioursBelievesValues Ethics
OrganisationalTeam / group thinkPeer pressureLeadershipStructure matrix / hierarchical / self formingCapability
MethodStyleFrequencyContractInter projectIntra project
Communications
Work ethicResponsibilityCreativity
People
ConstructorsSuppliersContractorsProject ManagerClient / EmployerStakeholders
Parties
TestingConstructionTechnical Difficulty ChangeDesignScope
Product Part One10
ProcessContract Organisational Work flowRFI / TQ / VO / WIPaymentsProgress Measurement
ScheduleSchedule structure Activity definition LogicResourcesCostPerformance Site logistics
SystemsScheduleRisk Mgt.Info. Mgt.Config. Mgt.Asset Mgt.
QHSE ManagementProduct qualityPersonnel welfareHealth and safetyEnvironmental protectionSustainable construction
ImpactOwnershipDefinition
Risk / Opportunity
PurposeAudienceContentFrequency
Reporting
Cost benefit analysisInvestment returnPayment Contract costsFinancing
Budget
Part Two11
GovernanceLegal obligationsBusiness obligationsInvestorsInsurancePerformance bondsProcurementInstitutional arrangements
Co-ordinationTechnicalOrganisationalPeoplePlant EquipmentMaterialsIntellectualProject system info.
EnvironmentalLocationBuilt formGeo- political
Information (Design / Build)Project dynamicsProject objectives
Emergence
Technical requirementsPerformanceProject knowledge
InterpretationPart Three
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13
Process
Schedule
Systems
QHSE
Cultural
Budget
Risk & OpportunityReporting
Project Organisation
Contracts
Organisational
Product
Parties
Communications
People
Governance
Co-ordination
Environmental
Interpretation
Emergence
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Complexity Definition
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Perhaps the Seth Lloyd (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
attributed quotation
‘I can’t define it for you, but I know it when I see’
Complexity no common agreed measure, its subjective, not scaler, it evolves overtime
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Baccarini (1996) used the following phrases to discuss projects
Interdependency Horizontal / vertical differentiation Technology, number of inputs and outputs Number of specialties Subcontractors or trades Dysfunctional organisational units
Research from 1948 150 + authors 300 + traits
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Complexity traits analysis
19 Common themes from content analysis
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Governance and MOP
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• UK Governance Cadbury Committee 1992 • SOX 2002• Project Management Institute Governance Frameworks 2009• UK Corporate Governance Code 2010 updated 2014 • APM - GtGPM 2012
2001 2013
2015
2001
2002
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Governance Framework
Vision
Values
Objectives
Mission
Strategy Portfolio
Program
Project
Operation
Customers
Stakeholders
Employees
Benefits
Product
Initiation Planning Delivery Closure
Business Governance
Project Governance
Monitor and reviewInputs Outputs 21
Relating complexity traits to a framework for assuring project governance
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Survey of MOP - framework related to governance
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/project_governance 23
MOP framework / thematic analysis to define complexity traits
Project codex for definition project DNA definition
Schedule model that recognises constraints density [complexity impacts] and changes over time
Key to mapping complexity – unravelling the DNA of projects
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Representation
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Simple CPM Network
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Social Networks Network Analysis
• Degree centrality • Closeness centrality • Betweenness centrality • Eigenvector centrality • Katz centrality
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INCIDENCE MATRIX - Representative DAG indegree out outdegree
Start A B C D E F G H I J FinishNo Of
SuccessorsSuc + Pred
Start 1 1
A 3 4
B 1 2
C 1 2
D 1 2
E 1 2
F 2 3
G 1 3
H 1 3
I 1 2
J 1 2
Finish 0
No Of
Predecessors0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1
Dominant activities are A,F, G & H 28
Start A B C D E F G H I J Finish
Interdependency
Emergence of behaviour / causes /actions
Goals and objectives
Stakeholders /politics / external influences
Uncertainty / change
Concurrency, parallel activity / number of activity
Business / project organisation
Behavioural belief systems / socio cultural
Regulations / legal framework
Project duration / scale / budget / fiscal
Newness / differing systems and technology
Procedures / governance / documentation /
Specialisms
Extensive communications and reporting
Time and geographical displacement
Number of actors
Number of parts / variables
Market dynamics / supply chain / competition
Product definition / structure of delivery method /
project environment considerations
Start A B C D E F G H I J FinishNo Of
SuccessorsSuc + Pred
Start 1 1
A 3 4
B 1 2
C 1 2
D 1 2
E 1 2
F 2 3
G 1 3
H 1 3
I 1 2
J 1 2
Finish 0
No Of
Predecessors0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1
No Of Complexity Traits 4 3 4 1 2 5 7 3 2 2
Impacts on Activity
29
Start A B C D E F G H I J Finish
Interdependency
Emergence of behaviour / causes /actions
Goals and objectives
Stakeholders /politics / external influences
Uncertainty / change
Concurrency, parallel activity / number of activity
Business / project organisation
Behavioural belief systems / socio cultural
Regulations / legal framework
Project duration / scale / budget / fiscal
Newness / differing systems and technology
Procedures / governance / documentation /
Specialisms
Extensive communications and reporting
Time and geographical displacement
Number of actors
Number of parts / variables
Market dynamics / supply chain / competition
Product definition / structure of delivery method /
project environment considerations
Start A B C D E F G H I J FinishNo Of
SuccessorsSuc + Pred
Start 1 1
A 3 4
B 1 2
C 1 2
D 1 2
E 1 2
F 2 3
G 1 3
H 1 3
I 1 2
J 1 2
Finish 0
No Of
Predecessors0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1
No Of Complexity Traits 4 3 4 1 2 5 7 3 2 2
Impacts on Activity
30
Start A B C D E F G H I J Finish
Interdependency
Emergence of behaviour / causes /actions
Goals and objectives
Stakeholders /politics / external influences
Uncertainty / change
Concurrency, parallel activity / number of activity
Business / project organisation
Behavioural belief systems / socio cultural
Regulations / legal framework
Project duration / scale / budget / fiscal
Newness / differing systems and technology
Procedures / governance / documentation /
Specialisms
Extensive communications and reporting
Time and geographical displacement
Number of actors
Number of parts / variables
Market dynamics / supply chain / competition
Product definition / structure of delivery method /
project environment considerations
Impacts on Activity
Clusters – the existence of multiple complexity traits on each node
‘C’ Cluster‘G’ Cluster
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Start A B C D E F G H I J Finish
Interdependency
Emergence of behaviour / causes /actions
Goals and objectives
Stakeholders /politics / external influences
Uncertainty / change
Concurrency, parallel activity / number of activity
Business / project organisation
Behavioural belief systems / socio cultural
Regulations / legal framework
Project duration / scale / budget / fiscal
Newness / differing systems and technology
Procedures / governance / documentation /
Specialisms
Extensive communications and reporting
Time and geographical displacement
Number of actors
Number of parts / variables
Market dynamics / supply chain / competition
Product definition / structure of delivery method /
project environment considerations
Impacts on Activity
String – the existence of the same complexity trait through a sequential series of activities
‘Actor’ String
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Using network dominance ‘centrality’ to see flows of complexity provides
• Greater network understanding• Complexity trait changes over time• Schedule levelling based on a new heuristic • Complexity ‘strings’ can be evidenced• Complexity impact assessment can be determined• Network path colouring for the differing traits
And helps to unravel a project’s DNA
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The Schedule Complexity Definition Model –
Unravelling Project DNA
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Project DNA Complexity Trait Definition Network Dominance
Analysis UnderstandingStrings & Clusters
String
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New Knowledge
1 Explores project as complex entity – DNA 2 Thematic analysis of complexity3 MOP / Complexity framework4 Analysis of CPM networks using dominance ideas from social networks5 Links complexity traits to nodes in activity networks 6 Introduces ideas of complexity clusters and strings into CPM networks7 Provides visualisation of potential complexity areas for project
participants
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Questions ?
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Slide No References
1 Robert Gordon University http://www.rgu.ac.ukproject-genetics http://www.project-genetics.comPMI United Arab Emirates Khaleeji Chapter htttp://pmi-uae.org
4 Jeremy Lambert RGU http://www.rgu.ac.uk/dmstaff/jeremy-lambert
6 McKinsey & Company Megaprojects: The good, the bad, and the better http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/infrastructure/megaprojects_the_good_the_bad_and_the_better
Professor Bent Flyvbjerghttp://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/community/people/bent-flyvbjerg
Naomi Brookes, Professor of Complex Project Managementhttps://www.engineering.leeds.ac.uk/faculty/events/inaugural-lectures/naomi-brookes/index.shtml
8 James Watson (left) and Francis Crick (1953)http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entries/do53dn.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/discovery-of-dna-structure-and-function-watson-397
CPMhttp://www.netmba.com/operations/project/cpm/http://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/history-critical-path-method-24351.html
Slide No References
8 CPMTime Out: For Morgan R. Walker, James E. Kelley Jr. and D. G. Malcolmhttp://flylib.com/books/en/3.287.1.110/1/
Program evaluation and review techniquehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique
John HollandGenetic Algorithms: An Overview By Melanie Mitchellhttp://web.cecs.pdx.edu/~mm/cs410-510-winter-2005/ga-tutorial.pdf
9 The USA National Human Genome Research Institute http://www.genome.gov
15 Map of complexity scienceshttp://www.kdnuggets.com/2015/04/map-complexity-sciences.html
16 Seth Lloydhttps://esd.mit.edu/Faculty_Pages/lloyd/lloyd.htm
17 BACCARINI, D., 1996. The concept of project complexity a review. International Journal of Project Management, 14(4), pp. 201-204.
Slide No References
18 Thematic AnalysisNarrative Analysis Riessman, Catherine Kohler 2005 http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/4920/2/Chapter_1_-_Catherine_Kohler_Riessman.pdfThe Coding Manual for Qualitative Researchers Johnny Saldaña 2009 Sage LondonA Pragmatic View of Thematic Analysis Jodi Aronson 1995Document Analysis as a Qualitative Research Method Glenn A. Bowen Western Carolina University
20 Sarbanes Oxley Act http://www.soxlaw.comProject Management Institute Governance Framework http://www.pmi.org/Learning/research-completed-research/governance-frameworks-for-public-project-development-and-estimation.aspxUK Corporate Governance Code 2014 https://www.frc.org.uk/Our-Work/Publications/Corporate-Governance/UK-Corporate-Governance-Code-2014.pdfAPM A Guide To Governance of Project Management 2012 https://www.apm.org.uk/DirectingChangeEnron 2001 http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/03/business/enron-s-collapse-the-overview-enron-corp-files-largest-us-claim-for-bankruptcy.htmlEnron 2001 http://cases.laws.com/enronHIH Insurance 2001 http://www.hih.com.au/Olympus 2013 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a845fc34-e3a5-11e2-b35b-00144feabdc0.html#WorldCom 2002 http://money.cnn.com/2002/07/19/news/worldcom_bankruptcy/Smith & Ouzman 2015 https://www.sfo.gov.uk/press-room/latest-press-releases/press-releases-2015/two-men-sentenced-following-corruption-trial.aspx
Slide No References
27 Degree Centralityhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CentralityCloseness Centralityhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrality#Closeness_centralityhttp://faculty.ucr.edu/~hanneman/nettext/C10_Centrality.html#ClosenessBetweenness Centralityhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betweenness_centralityhttp://toreopsahl.com/tnet/weighted-networks/node-centrality/Eigenvector Centralityhttp://demonstrations.wolfram.com/NetworkCentralityUsingEigenvectors/https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/teaching/1213/L109/stna-lecture3.pdfhttp://www.sci.unich.it/~francesc/teaching/network/eigenvector.htmlKatz Centralityhttp://www.sci.unich.it/~francesc/teaching/network/katz.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katz_centralityhttps://networkx.github.io/documentation/latest/reference/generated/networkx.algorithms.centrality.katz_centrality.html
Newman M.E.J. Networks An Introduction Oxford University Press 2010Chartrand G. Introductory Graph Theory Dover Publications Inc. 1985A First Course In Graph Theory Chartrand G. and Zhang P. Dover Publications Inc. 2014Graph Theory And Complex Networks Maarten van Steen Amazon.Co.UK 2010