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Project Genetics 1

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Page 1: Project Genetics - jeremylambert.org · Risk Mgt. Info. Mgt. Config. Mgt. Asset Mgt. ... Business obligations Investors Insurance Performance bonds ... Slide No References

Project Genetics

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IStart

J Finish

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Today’s journey

• Introduction • Genetics and DNA• Project DNA• Complexity Definition• Governance and MOP Framework• Representation • Complexity Definition Model

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PROJECT GENETICS

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Projectification exists on a global scale.

• Consider any industry, all progress is evidenced through projects

• The construction industry is almost totally dominated by project management

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• $57 trillion on infrastructure by 2030• Nine out of ten megaprojects go over budget2

Over - complexityOver-optimism Organisational dysfunctionalityPoor execution

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Genetics and DNA

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James Watson (left) and Francis Crick (1953)

John Holland (1975)

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The USA National Human Genome Research Institute

http://www.genome.gov/10001204

Parallel

If the genetics in humans are not correct medical disorder ensues

If the genetics in projects are not correct project disorder ensues

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Project OrganisationWBSOBSRBSPBSCBSCoBSABS

ContractsContract formDouble jeopardy Supply chain membersRisk vs reward

CulturalLanguagesBehavioursBelievesValues Ethics

OrganisationalTeam / group thinkPeer pressureLeadershipStructure matrix / hierarchical / self formingCapability

MethodStyleFrequencyContractInter projectIntra project

Communications

Work ethicResponsibilityCreativity

People

ConstructorsSuppliersContractorsProject ManagerClient / EmployerStakeholders

Parties

TestingConstructionTechnical Difficulty ChangeDesignScope

Product Part One10

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ProcessContract Organisational Work flowRFI / TQ / VO / WIPaymentsProgress Measurement

ScheduleSchedule structure Activity definition LogicResourcesCostPerformance Site logistics

SystemsScheduleRisk Mgt.Info. Mgt.Config. Mgt.Asset Mgt.

QHSE ManagementProduct qualityPersonnel welfareHealth and safetyEnvironmental protectionSustainable construction

ImpactOwnershipDefinition

Risk / Opportunity

PurposeAudienceContentFrequency

Reporting

Cost benefit analysisInvestment returnPayment Contract costsFinancing

Budget

Part Two11

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GovernanceLegal obligationsBusiness obligationsInvestorsInsurancePerformance bondsProcurementInstitutional arrangements

Co-ordinationTechnicalOrganisationalPeoplePlant EquipmentMaterialsIntellectualProject system info.

EnvironmentalLocationBuilt formGeo- political

Information (Design / Build)Project dynamicsProject objectives

Emergence

Technical requirementsPerformanceProject knowledge

InterpretationPart Three

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Process

Schedule

Systems

QHSE

Cultural

Budget

Risk & OpportunityReporting

Project Organisation

Contracts

Organisational

Product

Parties

Communications

People

Governance

Co-ordination

Environmental

Interpretation

Emergence

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Complexity Definition

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Perhaps the Seth Lloyd (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

attributed quotation

‘I can’t define it for you, but I know it when I see’

Complexity no common agreed measure, its subjective, not scaler, it evolves overtime

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Baccarini (1996) used the following phrases to discuss projects

Interdependency Horizontal / vertical differentiation Technology, number of inputs and outputs Number of specialties Subcontractors or trades Dysfunctional organisational units

Research from 1948 150 + authors 300 + traits

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Complexity traits analysis

19 Common themes from content analysis

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Governance and MOP

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• UK Governance Cadbury Committee 1992 • SOX 2002• Project Management Institute Governance Frameworks 2009• UK Corporate Governance Code 2010 updated 2014 • APM - GtGPM 2012

2001 2013

2015

2001

2002

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Governance Framework

Vision

Values

Objectives

Mission

Strategy Portfolio

Program

Project

Operation

Customers

Stakeholders

Employees

Benefits

Product

Initiation Planning Delivery Closure

Business Governance

Project Governance

Monitor and reviewInputs Outputs 21

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Relating complexity traits to a framework for assuring project governance

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Survey of MOP - framework related to governance

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/project_governance 23

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MOP framework / thematic analysis to define complexity traits

Project codex for definition project DNA definition

Schedule model that recognises constraints density [complexity impacts] and changes over time

Key to mapping complexity – unravelling the DNA of projects

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Representation

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Simple CPM Network

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Social Networks Network Analysis

• Degree centrality • Closeness centrality • Betweenness centrality • Eigenvector centrality • Katz centrality

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INCIDENCE MATRIX - Representative DAG indegree out outdegree

Start A B C D E F G H I J FinishNo Of

SuccessorsSuc + Pred

Start 1 1

A 3 4

B 1 2

C 1 2

D 1 2

E 1 2

F 2 3

G 1 3

H 1 3

I 1 2

J 1 2

Finish 0

No Of

Predecessors0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1

Dominant activities are A,F, G & H 28

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Start A B C D E F G H I J Finish

Interdependency

Emergence of behaviour / causes /actions

Goals and objectives

Stakeholders /politics / external influences

Uncertainty / change

Concurrency, parallel activity / number of activity

Business / project organisation

Behavioural belief systems / socio cultural

Regulations / legal framework

Project duration / scale / budget / fiscal

Newness / differing systems and technology

Procedures / governance / documentation /

Specialisms

Extensive communications and reporting

Time and geographical displacement

Number of actors

Number of parts / variables

Market dynamics / supply chain / competition

Product definition / structure of delivery method /

project environment considerations

Start A B C D E F G H I J FinishNo Of

SuccessorsSuc + Pred

Start 1 1

A 3 4

B 1 2

C 1 2

D 1 2

E 1 2

F 2 3

G 1 3

H 1 3

I 1 2

J 1 2

Finish 0

No Of

Predecessors0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1

No Of Complexity Traits 4 3 4 1 2 5 7 3 2 2

Impacts on Activity

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Start A B C D E F G H I J Finish

Interdependency

Emergence of behaviour / causes /actions

Goals and objectives

Stakeholders /politics / external influences

Uncertainty / change

Concurrency, parallel activity / number of activity

Business / project organisation

Behavioural belief systems / socio cultural

Regulations / legal framework

Project duration / scale / budget / fiscal

Newness / differing systems and technology

Procedures / governance / documentation /

Specialisms

Extensive communications and reporting

Time and geographical displacement

Number of actors

Number of parts / variables

Market dynamics / supply chain / competition

Product definition / structure of delivery method /

project environment considerations

Start A B C D E F G H I J FinishNo Of

SuccessorsSuc + Pred

Start 1 1

A 3 4

B 1 2

C 1 2

D 1 2

E 1 2

F 2 3

G 1 3

H 1 3

I 1 2

J 1 2

Finish 0

No Of

Predecessors0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1

No Of Complexity Traits 4 3 4 1 2 5 7 3 2 2

Impacts on Activity

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Start A B C D E F G H I J Finish

Interdependency

Emergence of behaviour / causes /actions

Goals and objectives

Stakeholders /politics / external influences

Uncertainty / change

Concurrency, parallel activity / number of activity

Business / project organisation

Behavioural belief systems / socio cultural

Regulations / legal framework

Project duration / scale / budget / fiscal

Newness / differing systems and technology

Procedures / governance / documentation /

Specialisms

Extensive communications and reporting

Time and geographical displacement

Number of actors

Number of parts / variables

Market dynamics / supply chain / competition

Product definition / structure of delivery method /

project environment considerations

Impacts on Activity

Clusters – the existence of multiple complexity traits on each node

‘C’ Cluster‘G’ Cluster

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Start A B C D E F G H I J Finish

Interdependency

Emergence of behaviour / causes /actions

Goals and objectives

Stakeholders /politics / external influences

Uncertainty / change

Concurrency, parallel activity / number of activity

Business / project organisation

Behavioural belief systems / socio cultural

Regulations / legal framework

Project duration / scale / budget / fiscal

Newness / differing systems and technology

Procedures / governance / documentation /

Specialisms

Extensive communications and reporting

Time and geographical displacement

Number of actors

Number of parts / variables

Market dynamics / supply chain / competition

Product definition / structure of delivery method /

project environment considerations

Impacts on Activity

String – the existence of the same complexity trait through a sequential series of activities

‘Actor’ String

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Using network dominance ‘centrality’ to see flows of complexity provides

• Greater network understanding• Complexity trait changes over time• Schedule levelling based on a new heuristic • Complexity ‘strings’ can be evidenced• Complexity impact assessment can be determined• Network path colouring for the differing traits

And helps to unravel a project’s DNA

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The Schedule Complexity Definition Model –

Unravelling Project DNA

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Project DNA Complexity Trait Definition Network Dominance

Analysis UnderstandingStrings & Clusters

String

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New Knowledge

1 Explores project as complex entity – DNA 2 Thematic analysis of complexity3 MOP / Complexity framework4 Analysis of CPM networks using dominance ideas from social networks5 Links complexity traits to nodes in activity networks 6 Introduces ideas of complexity clusters and strings into CPM networks7 Provides visualisation of potential complexity areas for project

participants

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Questions ?

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1 Robert Gordon University http://www.rgu.ac.ukproject-genetics http://www.project-genetics.comPMI United Arab Emirates Khaleeji Chapter htttp://pmi-uae.org

4 Jeremy Lambert RGU http://www.rgu.ac.uk/dmstaff/jeremy-lambert

6 McKinsey & Company Megaprojects: The good, the bad, and the better http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/infrastructure/megaprojects_the_good_the_bad_and_the_better

Professor Bent Flyvbjerghttp://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/community/people/bent-flyvbjerg

Naomi Brookes, Professor of Complex Project Managementhttps://www.engineering.leeds.ac.uk/faculty/events/inaugural-lectures/naomi-brookes/index.shtml

8 James Watson (left) and Francis Crick (1953)http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entries/do53dn.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/discovery-of-dna-structure-and-function-watson-397

CPMhttp://www.netmba.com/operations/project/cpm/http://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/history-critical-path-method-24351.html

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8 CPMTime Out: For Morgan R. Walker, James E. Kelley Jr. and D. G. Malcolmhttp://flylib.com/books/en/3.287.1.110/1/

Program evaluation and review techniquehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique

John HollandGenetic Algorithms: An Overview By Melanie Mitchellhttp://web.cecs.pdx.edu/~mm/cs410-510-winter-2005/ga-tutorial.pdf

9 The USA National Human Genome Research Institute http://www.genome.gov

15 Map of complexity scienceshttp://www.kdnuggets.com/2015/04/map-complexity-sciences.html

16 Seth Lloydhttps://esd.mit.edu/Faculty_Pages/lloyd/lloyd.htm

17 BACCARINI, D., 1996. The concept of project complexity a review. International Journal of Project Management, 14(4), pp. 201-204.

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18 Thematic AnalysisNarrative Analysis Riessman, Catherine Kohler 2005 http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/4920/2/Chapter_1_-_Catherine_Kohler_Riessman.pdfThe Coding Manual for Qualitative Researchers Johnny Saldaña 2009 Sage LondonA Pragmatic View of Thematic Analysis Jodi Aronson 1995Document Analysis as a Qualitative Research Method Glenn A. Bowen Western Carolina University

20 Sarbanes Oxley Act http://www.soxlaw.comProject Management Institute Governance Framework http://www.pmi.org/Learning/research-completed-research/governance-frameworks-for-public-project-development-and-estimation.aspxUK Corporate Governance Code 2014 https://www.frc.org.uk/Our-Work/Publications/Corporate-Governance/UK-Corporate-Governance-Code-2014.pdfAPM A Guide To Governance of Project Management 2012 https://www.apm.org.uk/DirectingChangeEnron 2001 http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/03/business/enron-s-collapse-the-overview-enron-corp-files-largest-us-claim-for-bankruptcy.htmlEnron 2001 http://cases.laws.com/enronHIH Insurance 2001 http://www.hih.com.au/Olympus 2013 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a845fc34-e3a5-11e2-b35b-00144feabdc0.html#WorldCom 2002 http://money.cnn.com/2002/07/19/news/worldcom_bankruptcy/Smith & Ouzman 2015 https://www.sfo.gov.uk/press-room/latest-press-releases/press-releases-2015/two-men-sentenced-following-corruption-trial.aspx

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27 Degree Centralityhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CentralityCloseness Centralityhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrality#Closeness_centralityhttp://faculty.ucr.edu/~hanneman/nettext/C10_Centrality.html#ClosenessBetweenness Centralityhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betweenness_centralityhttp://toreopsahl.com/tnet/weighted-networks/node-centrality/Eigenvector Centralityhttp://demonstrations.wolfram.com/NetworkCentralityUsingEigenvectors/https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/teaching/1213/L109/stna-lecture3.pdfhttp://www.sci.unich.it/~francesc/teaching/network/eigenvector.htmlKatz Centralityhttp://www.sci.unich.it/~francesc/teaching/network/katz.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katz_centralityhttps://networkx.github.io/documentation/latest/reference/generated/networkx.algorithms.centrality.katz_centrality.html

Newman M.E.J. Networks An Introduction Oxford University Press 2010Chartrand G. Introductory Graph Theory Dover Publications Inc. 1985A First Course In Graph Theory Chartrand G. and Zhang P. Dover Publications Inc. 2014Graph Theory And Complex Networks Maarten van Steen Amazon.Co.UK 2010