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POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 35(2 ) : 367–389 ( JUNE 2009) 367

Population Dynamics in Italy in the Middle Ages: New Insights from Archaeological Findings

IRENE BARBIERA

GIANPIERO DALLA-ZUANNA

ALTHOUGH DEBATE CONTINUES over how best to interpret available data, schol-ars now generally agree that Classical Roman Italy (2nd century BCE – 5th century CE) was characterized by high mortality (an average life expectancy at birth of 20–25 years) and high fertility (on average at least 6 children per woman). The latter was facilitated by a young age at first marriage for women (age 20 or younger), universal marriage, an absence of contraception dur-ing marriage, and relatively brief durations of breastfeeding (Scheidel 2001; Caldwell 2004). While information about the Italian population during the Middle Ages (from the 6th to the 15th century) is available on the evolution of settlements and the number of inhabitants, knowledge about the demo-graphic mechanisms of population replacement (mortality, fertility, and mi-gration) remains scarce, even compared what is known about other regions of Europe at the time (Russell 1985: 38; Hallam 1985; Smith 1991; Comba and Naso 1994; Pinto 1996, 1997; Rouche 1997).

To shed light on the population dynamics of medieval Italy, this article first presents a synthesis of principal findings concerning the medieval Italian population in the Early Middle Ages (6th–9th centuries), the High Middle Ages (10th–13th), and the Late Middle Ages (14th–15th). We then analyze new findings on nutrition and mortality of the Italian population from the 1st century BCE to the 13th century CE derived from analysis of skeletal remains gathered from 154 cemeteries.

Historical insights

Lo Cascio and Malanima (2005) recently proposed reasonably convincing new population estimates for Italy (using the country’s current borders) for the period between 200 BCE and 1400 CE (Table 1). According to these

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368 P O P U L AT I O N D Y N A M I C S I N I TA LY I N T H E M I D D L E A G E S

authors, the number of persons who lived during the Classical Era and the Middle Ages was higher than previously suggested (e.g., by Beloch 1994). Despite this difference, scholars agree that after the sudden decrease in the population caused by the Justinian Plague in 542 and recurrences over the following 150 years (Little 2007), the number of inhabitants in Italy remained fairly constant for centuries. The population did not begin to increase until the 9th century, reaching a peak around 1300 (Pinto 1996; Lo Cascio and Malanima 2005). Population growth declined during the first half of the 14th century, and the plague of 1348 wiped out one-third of the population. Such estimates, calculated for extremely long periods, should be accepted with great caution. However, a vast amount of documentation has been gathered on settlements in Italy during the Early and High Middle Ages (Del Panta 1980; Pinto 1996; Francovich 2002; Gelichi 2002; detailed below). In our opinion the macro-trends identified between the 6th and the 15th centuries are a reasonable starting point for demographic analysis.

A long time-span without plague

The authors mentioned above also agree on the absence of great plague epi-demics in Italy during the long interval between the 8th century and 1348. It is possible, however, that other deadly forms of epidemics occurred during these 550 years; epidemiological evidence for the medieval era (especially for the Early Middle Ages) remains too limited for generalizations. Nevertheless, intermittent increases in mortality during these centuries are not comparable to the virulence and scope of the plague epidemics, which, in close cycles, struck Italy from the 14th to the 17th centuries (Del Panta 1980).

Moderate “foreign” immigration

Immigration into Italy played only a marginal role in defining the structure of the population. Historians concur that none of the “barbaric invasions” in Italy significantly affected the demographic characteristics of the population already established. The Lombards, the largest foreign population, accounted for no more than 150,000–200,000 inhabitants, or 2–2.5 percent of the to-tal Latin population resident in Italy (based on estimates of Lo Cascio and Malanima 2005). According to Wickham (1983), the Lombards, even in the

TABLE 1 Estimates of the Italian population at the beginning of each century, 200 BCE to 1400 CE (in millions)

BCE CE

200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400

7 10 15.5 15.5 12 9 10 11 8 8 8 9 10 10.5 11 12.5 8

SOURCE: Lo Cascio and Malanima 2005.


I R E N E B A R B I E R A / G I A N P I E R O D A L L A -Z U A N N A 369

areas they most densely populated, northern Italy, made up no more than 5–8 percent of the total population. These estimates are quite similar to the ratio between Germanic and Latin populations described by Rouche (1997) for the Middle Ages in what is now France.

Dark Ages?

In view of the almost total lack of documentation on demographic dynam-ics, the stereotype of “decline and revival” has been advanced to explain mechanisms of population turnover (Pinto 1997). This paradigm is first and foremost based on early medieval sources, especially of Christian origin, that paint a tragic picture of Italy savaged and depopulated under the Lombards, who in turn are depicted as pagan invaders. Particularly famous is a descrip-tion written by Gregory the Great in 563 CE:

Cities plundered, camps destroyed, churches burned, male and female monas-teries demolished. Houses abandoned by their inhabitants and land left empty by farmers. The owners are nowhere to be seen. Beasts have occupied those places previously populated by multitudes of people. What is happening else-where I do not know; I know that, in this region in which we live, the end of the world is not only foreseeable, but by now, evident.1

Consistent with this portrayal, the resplendent classical times—when Italy (civil, organized, wealthy, densely populated, with a solid urban lattice) dominated the Mediterranean and Western Europe—would have been followed by a decline into the dark ages (Ward Perkins 2005), characterized by significant population decline due to high mortality, barely compensated by high fertility. This period would have been followed by centuries of revival into late medieval times, accompanied by agrarian expansion, burgeoning city life, increased commerce, population increase, and longer life expectancy. In addition, ac-cording to this perspective, the process of ruralization, the advancement of forests and marshlands in place of cultivated fields, and the revanche of rural areas (even within ancient city walls) during the Early Middle Ages would have been explained by a progressive return to “untamed” human behavior. On the one hand, individuals would have been more exposed to the vagaries of nature, with consequent higher levels of mortality. On the other hand, be-havior related to marriage and fertility would have been ever more “natural” and thus characterized by sustained fertility, universal nuptiality (with the exception of monks and nuns), and a young age at first marriage.

Better conditions for peasants

The first important evidence counter to the idea of a desperate period has been advanced by Montanari (1979, 1988, and 1994) in his work on diet



and sustenance during the Early Middle Ages. Drawing on the rich archives of several prominent Italian monasteries, he demonstrates that during the Early Middle Ages the peasants of northern Italy ate more and better not only than in the Roman era, but also than in the High Middle Ages and the Mod-ern Age up through the first decades of the 19th century. Peasants enjoyed a rich and diverse diet of vegetables, meats, and fish; not dulled—as during the previous centuries—by the monotony of grains. Changes in agriculture, the economy, climate, and population density contributed to these improve-ments in nutrition (Steckel 2004; Canci and Minozzi 2005: 143–159; Moradi and Baten 2005; Koepke and Baten 2008).

As demonstrated by Wickham (2005), the end of the Roman Empire meant the shrinking of tax burdens, weakening of the aristocracy, and con-sequently greater freedom for peasants. The crises of the great estates brought to the fore villages and rural communities, where peasants were more au-tonomous (Wickham 2005: 514–518). Recent archaeological investigations in Tuscany have revealed large, stable village settlements, generally on hilltops (populated by about 100 inhabitants), based on self-sufficient economies (Francovich 2008). Archaeological surveys in the provinces of Siena and Gros-seto have revealed a steep decline in the number of new settlements during the 6th and 7th centuries. Also, archaeological surveys in the provinces of Siena and Grosseto have revealed the diffusion of relatively favorable condi-tions for farmers, driven by a drastic reduction of population pressure on the land. “Surveying of approximately 1,979 km2 of the region has revealed 2,521 first- to fourth-century settlement structures, and 201 sixth- to seventh-cen-tury structures” (Francovich 2008: 64). This transformation implies a dramatic change in land use. A newly developing territorial and economic organization, together with (and related to) the sparse number of inhabitants, the weak-ening of commerce, and the consolidation of an economy based on self-suf-ficiency, allowed for the avoidance of intensive farming dedicated to grains, the conservation of large tracts of woodlands, the cultivation of large garden plots for family consumption, and the free breeding of domestic animals.

Paleo-zoological analyses conducted on several early medieval sites excavated in northern Italy (Padanian plain), Latium, and Sicily reveal that cattle were abundant (Giovannini 2001). Moreover, research shows that animals were slaughtered at a relatively young age (between two and four years old), suggesting that their use was primarily for meat production and only marginally for plowing (Koepke and Baten 2008). Unfortunately, the sex of the animals, which would shed light on the importance of milk consump-tion, has not been determined. Additional information has been gathered from pottery shapes. From the Early Middle Ages, pots substituted for pans, indicating the spread of boiled foods. The consumption of meat soups seems to be confirmed through evidence of the way animal bones were handled, as revealed by paleo-zoological analyses (Giovannini 2001). Finally, clues to nu-



tritional conditions have been obtained through a paleo-nutritional analysis using atomic absorption spectroscopy.2 Results from the remains of several Italian cemeteries from the Early Middle Ages suggest that individuals enjoyed a relatively balanced diet, including both vegetables and meat.

An egalitarian society

The organization of settlements suggests an egalitarian community structure from the 6th until the beginning of the 8th century. A pastoral economy of sheep, pigs, and cattle prevailed (Francovich and Valenti 2007: 93–94). An-thropological analyses of skeletal remains from an early medieval cemetery in Poggibonsi reveal no class differences in nutritional standards among the in-habitants (Francovich and Valenti 2007). No significant relationship is evident between healthy individuals and wealthy funerary rituals. The healthiest and tallest individuals were not necessarily those buried in the most sumptuous graves or those with the most expensive grave goods (see for instance Moradi and Baten 2005; Francovich and Valenti 2007; Barbiera 2007).

This egalitarian pattern started to change toward the end of the 8th cen-tury, when the aristocracy became more powerful under the Carolingians, as evidenced by both historical and archaeological sources (Wickham 2005: 570–588). Documentary sources, particularly those from the 9th century, pro-vide evidence of peasants confronting landlords (aristocrats or monasteries) in court and resisting property expropriation and the loss of rights to forest and pasture land, testifying to the existence of “highly localized resistances to increasing aristocratic power” (ibid.: 584). Archaeological excavations, particularly in Tuscany, have revealed increasing social differentiation begin-ning in the late 8th century, when defensive fortifications were built around settlements, more prestigious dwellings appeared together with storage fa-cilities, and churches were founded (Valenti 2004; Francovich 2008). Rising demarcation in the social structure of the population is also evident from the 8th century onward from the organization of settlements. Areas inhabited by a lord (called pars dominicia), used for workshops and to collect surplus, proliferated (Valenti 2004; Francovich and Valenti 2007). During this period, cultivation spread, although meat consumption persisted. Paleo-zoological analyses of bone slivers have revealed that meat was consumed by all of the inhabitants, even if the more prized parts of the animals (particularly of pigs) were reserved for individuals living in the pars dominicia (Valenti 2004; Salva-tori 2007). These findings suggest that the increase in population during the High Middle Ages did not coincide with an improvement in living conditions. Rather, the rising needs of towns and the related demand for agricultural goods meant that landowners probably increased their demands on peasants. More generally—following the standard Malthusian scenario—demographic growth would have increased pressure on land and other resources.



A Golden Age?

Building on these findings, Giovannini (2001, 2002) provides a radical con-trast to the traditional negative interpretation by suggesting the existence of a low-pressure demographic regime during the Early Middles Ages, charac-terized by comparatively low infant mortality and fertility as the result of a nutritious diet, prolonged breastfeeding, and a relatively late age at first mar-riage for women. This argument is appealing in that it defines a self-regulat-ing homeostatic system. This pattern is also supported by empirical evidence, mentioned above, that diets were healthier during the Early Middle Ages than in the preceding and following centuries. Giovannini, however, is somewhat less convincing with regard to demographic variables, which he describes us-ing limited anthropological data obtained from cemeteries dating exclusively to the Early Middle Ages. He also trusts—excessively in our opinion—direct estimates of the low mortality of infants. Finally, we believe that the relation-ship between nutrition and mortality (infant and otherwise) is less direct and more complex than he suggests (see for example Livi Bacci 1987). Acceptance of this pattern would replace the dark ages paradigm of early medieval times with the paradigm of a golden age for the Italian population.

New insights from archaeological findings

Our aim in this article is to set aside stereotypical description and analyze recent archaeological findings pertaining to Italian population dynamics be-tween the Roman period and the Middle Ages. We present new results with regard to nutrition and mortality. Because little direct evidence exists about marriage and fertility in Italy before the Black Death, this study does not address these topics. Finally, given that this is the first time anthropological data from cemetery remains in Italy are presented extensively, our additional objective is to evaluate the potential of this source for understanding the period under observation.

Nutritional conditions

Breastfeeding. No written documentation exists from the Middle Ages concern-ing the duration of breastfeeding. Descriptions of the choice and management of foodstuffs are also scarce and sporadic and generally concern only the wealthier classes, hence a very limited portion of the population. Indirect information on the duration of breastfeeding may be gained, however, from anthropological analysis of skeletons.

For example, enamel hypoplasia of teeth corresponds to arrested epi-sodes of amelogenesis, arising from nutritional stress or an illness that afflicted the individual during the period of tooth formation, from intrauterine life up



to about age seven years (Buiksra and Uberlaker 1994). Hypoplasia is seen on teeth in the form of streaks. Because teeth do not change over the life course, it is possible to observe defects in them at any age. In addition, based on the position of hypoplasia on the tooth, it is possible to calculate the age at which the defect was formed (Goodman and Rose 1990; Canci and Minozzi 2005). Scholars believe that the formation of enamel hypoplasia between the ages of one and four or five years is linked to nutritional stress during the wean-ing period (Corrucini et al. 1985; Katzenberg, Herring, and Saunders 1996). On the basis of the presence or absence of enamel hypoplasia and—espe-cially—the age of its formation, it is possible to determine whether children experienced nutritional stress, whether the stress was linked to weaning, and, finally, around what age the stress occurred.3 Although not abundant, data on the proportion of individuals affected by hypoplasia in the cemeteries under study suggest an oscillation over time. We emphasize that the number of cemeteries for which this type of information is available is highly limited, particularly for the Roman era. An examination of the Roman cemeteries, dating between the 1st and 4th centuries CE, reveals a high and fairly uniform incidence of hypoplasia: between 70 and 90 percent. In the 5th and 6th cen-turies, the occurrence of hypoplasia diminished considerably and its values remained low—between 15 and 35 percent—through the 7th century. In the early 8th century levels reached 60–70 percent. The few cases documented for the 10th and 11th centuries seem to indicate a renewed decrease to 10–15 percent, while the values from the 13th century onward vary considerably among cemeteries.

The age at which an individual was afflicted by hypoplasia was calculat-ed for eight cemeteries (Barbiera and Dalla-Zuanna 2007). With due caution given the limited number of cases (1,370 skeletons), we observe a rise in age between the Roman period and the Early Middle Ages. For the two Roman cemeteries for which calculations were carried out (Lucus Feronae and Isola Sacra, both of which date between the 1st and 3rd century CE), we see peaks in the formation of hypoplasia at ages four–five months and eight months, suggesting that during the Imperial era this phenomenon was linked to early weaning. This conclusion is consistent with evidence from Classical literary works (Soranus 1991: 2.17–18). Beginning in the 4th century and continu-ing throughout the Early Middle Ages, the highest incidence of hypoplasia is observed between ages 3 and 5 years.

Modest available data on hypoplasia thus seem to indicate differences between the Roman era and medieval times with regard to both the nutrition-al status of infants and the duration of breastfeeding. In the former time, an elevated incidence of hypoplasia affected predominantly those at very young ages. Beginning around the 5th century, cemeteries with a low incidence of hypoplasia exist alongside those with higher frequencies, while starting in the 4th century the age at which individuals develop enamel hypoplasia rises in



all of the cemeteries. Collectively, these sparse data suggest that nutritional conditions and the health of children (and adults) during the Early Middle Ages were generally better than in Roman times, and that infants were prob-ably weaned at a later age. A lengthier duration of breastfeeding, accompanied by a more balanced maternal diet, could have meant that children were less prone to infections and nutritional stress.

Adult nutrition. Additional clues from the cemeteries suggest that general nutritional conditions may have been better during the Middle Ages than in the Roman period. The presence of anemia, for example, is evidenced by signs of cribra in the form of furrows and small lesions visible on the skull, particularly on the roof of the eye socket (cribra orbitalia) and in the occipital area (cribra cranii)—a more reliable indicator of health status.4 Although the presence of cribra is observed in a large number of cemeteries, available docu-mentation does not allow us to differentiate individual skeletons by age and sex. According to the results shown in Figure 1, the percentage of individuals affected by cribra is high during the Roman Age, drops sharply beginning in the 4th century, and remains at low levels throughout the Middle Ages. This picture from Italian cemeteries confirms findings from the literature that, compared to Roman times, social differences were less marked in the Early Middle Ages in terms of food supply, and meat was eaten by both the rich and poor.

The cemetery remains also yield information on the stature of adults, which is closely linked to nutritional status in childhood and, to a lesser ex-

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FIGURE 1 Percentage of individuals affected by cribra in 23 Italiancemeteries

NOTE: Data refer to 23 cemeteries and 1,748 skeletal remains. For details and references see Barbiera andDalla-Zuanna 2007, Table A2 and references.



tent, to pathologies experienced during the early years of life (Steckel 2004).5 The aim here is to observe a general trend in stature over time rather than to define precise estimates for each period under consideration. As shown in Figure 2, the average height of adult men and women in the cemeteries follows a parabolic pattern over time.6 We observe the lowest average values during the Roman era and the greatest heights during the Early Middle Ages. During later medieval times, stature declined although it never reached the low levels characteristic of the Roman era.

We do not agree with those anthropologists who posit that the elevated heights observed during the Early Middle Ages in Italy are attributable to Lombard immigration and the consequent influence of “Nordic traits” (Kiszely 1979). Instead, we have argued that height and other skeletal attributes are a response to health and nutritional conditions during the first 20 years of life. Our results mirror the trends seen in Europe at large at the time, as recently demonstrated by scholars (e.g., see Koepke and Baten 2008). Our data on stature are also in line with archaeological and historical data cited above, which suggest that a diet based mainly on cereals—typical of the densely populated Roman Empire—was replaced during the Early Middle Ages by a more balanced diet that included milk and its derivatives. Finally, the de-crease in stature starting in the Late Middle Ages has been correlated with a worsening in nutritional conditions.

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FIGURE 2 Average stature (in centimeters) as indicated by adult skeletonsfound in Italian cemeteries from the Classical Roman period and theMiddle Ages. Data points fitted by a straight line and a parabola

NOTE: Adult skeletons refer to persons aged 20 years or more; for younger persons sex cannot be determined withcertainty by means of simple anthropological analyses. For the techniques to determine age at death and stature usingskeletal remains, see endnotes 5 and 6. Data involve 26 cemeteries and 2,609 skeletons. For details and references, seeBarbiera and Dalla-Zuanna 2007, table A3 and references.

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Mortality

Method and data. As mentioned above, documentary data on deaths appro-priate for demographic analysis are not available before the 14th century in Italy. Indeed, available data are generally insufficient until the systematic documentation of burials in parish registers pursuant to the edict of Pope Paul IV in 1563. It is possible, however, to derive some information regard-ing mortality from estimates of the age at death of skeletons uncovered in the cemeteries. A number of scholars are skeptical of the reliability, for any historical epoch, of this type of information (Razi 1986; Scheidel 2001: 19; see also debate that took place during the 1980s: Bocquet-Appel and Masset 1982; Van Gerven and Armelagos 1983; Bocquet-Appel and Masset 1985; and more recently, Hoppa 2002). There are several reasons for this skepticism: age at death can be difficult to determine correctly (Wittwer-Backofen and Buba 2002); seasonal migration can distort the results since deaths of some specific age or sex could be systematically under- or over-estimated; and discovered skeletons may not be representative of the population as a whole (one must take into account selection factors such as social class, age, sex, and cause of death). The greatest problem lies, however, in the frequent and systematic underestimation of child mortality, which made up a large portion of total mortality in medieval demographic regimes. For example, in the cemeteries under analysis, the skeletons of individuals under age 5 years account—with very few exceptions—for only 10–20 percent of the total, while the equivalent percentages given by model life tables with life expectancies of 19, 29, and 39 years are respectively around 53 percent, 39 percent, and 27 percent of the total (Coale and Demeny 1983). Similar to practices revealed by scholars of Antiquity, it is possible that during the Middle Ages children who died at a young age were buried either near the house or in places designated for this purpose. It is also possible that the weak calcification of children’s bone structure did not stand the test of time.

With these considerations in mind, we have chosen to use only the data on mortality of persons aged 5 and older. As proposed by Bocquet-Appel and Naji (2006), our analysis starts with the ratio

d = D5–19

/D5+

where D5–19

is the number of skeletons of persons estimated to be aged 5–19 years relative to D

5+, the overall number of skeletons from the cemetery ex-

cluding children under 5 years of age. The resulting d-ratio may vary in three significant ways:

(1) In a stationary closed population (without migration, with equal and constant levels of fertility and mortality over time, and a constant age struc-ture), d is closely associated with several parameters of mortality. For ex-ample, for low survival levels (e

0<40) from Coale and Demeny’s (1983) West



life tables, the linear correlation between e0 and d is –0.98 (d=20, e

0=17.0;

d=15, e0=26.7; d=10, e

0=36.4). If the stationary hypothesis holds, levels of d

mirror mortality closely: the greater is the proportion of people older than 5 who die at ages 5–19, the lower is expectation of life at birth.

(2) Similarly, in a population affected by recurrent strong epidemics, d may be high because epidemics usually have a stronger impact on young people than on adults. Moreover, severe epidemics were often followed by a significant increase in marriages, producing a rise in the number of births and a conse-quent increase of the young age groups, as well as in the number of deaths at ages 5–19 years (Klapish-Zuber 1988).

(3) Finally, in a growing population, d increases because births exceed deaths, and the young age groups (and the deaths of the young) become more numerous. In a declining population, d diminishes. The growth scenario describes developing countries during the second half of the 20th century and European countries during early stage of the demographic transition, for which a 1–2 percent annual rate of natural increase was not rare. The period under analysis, however, was different. During the medieval population reviv-al, between the years 800 and 1300, the annual rate of increase of the Italian population was 0.09 percent (see Table 1); in the period of greatest popula-tion revival (during the 13th century) population increase still did not exceed 0.13 percent annually. Even if we were to accept the traditional estimates of medieval population growth calculated by Beloch (from 4.5 million Italians in 900 to 11 million in 1300—much more rapid growth than suggested in Table 1), the average rate of increase would still be little higher than 0.2 percent per year. Such low values of population increase do not significantly influence the age structure of the population or, consequently, the level of d.

Once we exclude this last possibility, during the Middle Ages high levels of the d-ratio should mirror high mortality levels, whether due to recurring strong epidemics or to a “normal” low survival level. To investigate this hy-pothesis, we began with 154 archaeological sites that span the period from the 1st century BCE to the 13th century in Italy (for details of the selection process, see Barbiera and Dalla-Zuanna 2007). We excluded cemeteries with fewer than 40 skeletons (106 cemeteries), those for which the age of more than 20 percent of the skeletons could not be determined (8 of the remaining 48 cemeteries), and those where the d-ratio was either less than 10 percent, corresponding to very low mortality, or higher than 30 percent, correspond-ing to very high mortality (5 of the remaining 40 cemeteries). The use of these restrictive criteria and the exclusion of data on very young children alleviate the risk of employing heavily distorted data and offset the various arguments against using this type of material for demographic purposes (Razi 1986; Scheidel 2001). We ultimately chose 35 cemeteries located in Italy (mostly in the regions of the Center-North) and in Iskra (now in Slovenia) that date between the 1st century BCE and the 13th century.7



Results. Results for d are similar for the 11 Roman cemeteries and the 11 cemeteries from the High Middle Age (Figure 3 and Table 2). For both periods, the median level of the d-ratio is 0.15. For the ten 6th–7th-century cemeteries, the median level of d is 0.20, whereas for the following two cen-turies d drops to 0.15 (data available for only three archaeological sites). The difference between the 6th–7th centuries and the earlier and later periods is remarkable: in the first two centuries of the Early Middle Ages, the d-ratio is greater than 0.20 in five cemeteries out of ten, while the same holds true for only five out of 25 cemeteries during the other periods.

It is possible to compare these results with those for other European set-tings. Rouche (1997), in his review of the European population during the Early Middle Ages (with reference mainly to French data), describes popula-tion dynamics similar to those observed in Italy, namely high mortality and high fertility during the 6th–8th centuries and “population recovery, even if somewhat fragile,” in the two centuries that follow. In his opinion, the upturn in population was probably attributable both to an increase in life expectancy and to the explicit and implicit weakening of norms against mixed marriages between “Barbarians” and “Romans.” On the other hand, using methodologies similar to our own (the ratio D

5–14/D

20+), Herrmann (1987) obtained somewhat

different results in his investigation of 25 cemeteries that date between the 4th and 14th centuries, located in various northern and central European countries (England, France, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Re-public; characterized by considerable cultural and climatic differences). For the 6th–10th centuries, Herrmann found mortality data to be relatively uniform across the different areas and life expectancy to be higher than in our Italian

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FIGURE 3 The ratio d=D5–19/D5+ over 1,300 years in 35 Italian cemeteries

NOTE: For a description of the cemeteries and more details, see Barbiera and Dalla-Zuanna 2007, Table A1 and references. For the techniques to determine age at death using skeletal remains, see endnote 6.



samples. For the 11th–13th centuries, the author’s results are more varied, and, unlike the situation we found in Italy, life expectancy generally worsens. These differences in medieval mortality trends between Italy and northern and central Europe do not seem to be attributable simply to methodological dif-ferences, because in both cases the results are derived from estimates of age at death deduced from skeletons found in cemeteries, excluding results for very young children. Consequently, and with due caution given the few and scat-tered available data, we can affirm that—according to the findings derived from the cemeteries—mortality trends between the Early and High Middle Ages in northern and central Europe were different from trends in Italy.

The original design of this project foresaw the collection of data for two to three centuries following the plague of 1348. Unfortunately, we found only three cemeteries that met our selection criteria for the 15th–17th centuries, with relatively high d values: 30, 23, and 28 respectively (Barbiera and Dalla-Zuanna 2007). These values suggest a mortality level similar to that detected during the 6th–7th centuries. It could be that in both periods the demographic regime was strongly influenced by the occurrence of plague episodes. Archae-ological data are mute with respect to fluctuations and mortality crises. How-ever, contemporary documentary sources testify that the so-called Justinian plague, which broke out in Egypt in 541 CE and most probably reached Italy (Liguria) in 565, was followed by several additional outbreaks: in 590, 593, and 680 (Little 2007).8 Consequently, the high d values found during the first two centuries of the Early Middle Ages might be attributable to a “stop and go” demographic regime, driven by mortality crises and subsequent popula-tion recoveries with a rapid increase in the population at young ages. This population dynamic may have been similar to the one that prevailed during the 14th–17th centuries in Italy, dominated by recurring plagues. We cannot exclude the possibility, however, that during the 6th and 7th centuries the general survival level was worse, apart from plagues and other epidemics.

TABLE 2 Death by large age groups, from 35 cemeteries in Italy, 1st century BCE to 13th century CE

Age group d = D5–19

/ D5+

Number of Century cemeteries 0–4 5–19 20+ Unknown Total Alla Medianb

1st BCE – 5th CE 11 365 126 684 47 1,222 0.16 0.156th–7th 10 148 179 667 44 1,038 0.21 0.208th–9th 3 57 17 93 13 180 0.15 0.1510th–13th 11 209 176 872 45 1,302 0.17 0.15

Total 35 779 498 2,316 149 3,742 0.18 0.18

aValues calculated after combining data from all cemeteries. bValues for the cemetery with the median value of d. NOTE: We excluded cemeteries with fewer than 40 skeletons, those for which the age of more than 20 percent of the skeletons could not be determined, and those where the d-ratio was either less than 10 percent or higher than 30 percent (see Barbiera and Dalla-Zuanna 2007).



We conclude this section by comparing Figure 3 and Table 2 with the population dynamics suggested by Lo Cascio and Malanima (shown in Table 1). The d-ratio when considered together with documentary sources suggests that population size may have stagnated during the 6th and 7th centuries because of recurrent epidemics. Documents suggest that the centuries that followed (the Early and High Middle Ages: 8th–13th centuries) were not affected by plague; similar levels of the d-ratio would consequently mean comparable survival regimes.

Reliability of the estimates

Before accepting these results, we address the reliability of our estimates.

Data quality

In view of our methodology, data quality should not be particularly prob-lematic. Employing the d-ratio minimizes two principal shortcomings of data gathered from ancient cemeteries: the underestimation of infant and early childhood deaths and the difficulty of estimating the exact age of adults. In fact, our method is based on estimates of young individuals, whose life span can be assessed from tooth growth (between birth and 12 years of age) and epiphysial fusion (between 10 and 20 years of age). According to the ar-chaeological and anthropological literature, these age estimations should not be severely affected by nutritional status (Mays 1998). That said, however, not all data problems have been resolved. For example, seasonal migration may have meant that some individuals died in places other than their ha-bitual place of residence. On this score, the image of the Early Middle Ages as characterized by low population mobility would be reassuring in terms of data quality. The period that followed (from the 10th to 13th centuries) is more problematic, in that urbanization and the construction of new settlements promoted population mobility (Pinto 1996). In addition, several archaeological findings cast doubt on the claim of low mobility during the Early Middle Ages and suggest the simultaneous processes of repopulation, depopulation, and colonization of virgin territories (La Rocca 1992; Fran-covich 2002; Lazzari and Santos Salazar 2005). Such phenomena, if intense and enduring, may have skewed distributions of the population by age and, thus, also by mortality.

Growing or declining population

We have excluded the possibility that for the period under study the d-ratio was affected by changes in population size. But the relatively slow population growth and decline during the periods under observation could have been



caused by a combination of situations: growing communities, communities in decline, and communities with a stationary population. For this reason, we chose the cemeteries with the median value of d as “representative” of the periods considered here. Note that for each period, however, the d-value of the median cemetery is very close to the d-value obtained after having merged the data (see Table 2). Moreover, although we have tried to gather data from the largest possible number of cemeteries, for several extended periods of time very few cemeteries meet the minimum criteria established for data quality. This is especially true for the 8th–9th centuries (only three cemeteries), for which the attempt to suggest a prevailing mortality regime is admittedly somewhat hazardous. In the future, gathering and analyzing additional data should reduce the risk of observing higher or lower mortality than the norm. Finally, the small number of available cemeteries precludes discussion of regional differences that might have characterized Italy, and more generally the West, after the fall of the Roman Empire.

Absence of estimates for early childhood mortality

The most advantageous feature of the d-ratio for analyzing data on age at death for ancient cemeteries is that it does not require information on children younger than 5 years. This strength is also one of the chief limitations of using the d-ratio for reconstructing the mortality regime. Theoretically speaking, if high mortality among those aged 5–19 years were not associated with high early childhood mortality, then a high d-ratio would not mirror high general mortality. This possibility is an issue for all methods that—starting from the analysis of adult mortality—seek to estimate general mortality, extrapolat-ing the parameters of early childhood mortality using standard life tables. The ability of standard life tables to fit a variety of situations extant during the Roman era and the Middle Ages (some of which were characterized by extremely high mortality) for which data of good quality are available even for the deaths of very young children has been judged to be “impressive” (Scheidel 2001). But this does not mean that such data fit all historical periods. Consequently, we are unable to judge the reliability of our estimates concern-ing early childhood mortality. It is possible that in settings with comparable levels of young and adult mortality, early childhood mortality was different (Giovannini 2001).

Discussion

What caused population stagnation in Italy during the Early Middle Ages and slow but steady population growth in the High Middle Ages? Data on mortal-ity and nutrition deducible from cemeteries shed light on the demographic dynamics of the Middle Ages, even if they suggest more questions than they



provide definitive answers. The Italian population dynamics that emerge from our archaeological data are somewhat contradictory. On the one hand, results suggest that during the Early Middle Ages survival was no higher than in the preceding and following periods. On the other hand, taller stature, a lesser incidence of cribra, and prolonged breastfeeding suggest that diets during the Early Middle Ages were more varied and abundant than in the previous and following centuries. Consequently, changes in nutritional conditions between the Roman era and the Early and High Middle Ages could have been at least partially independent of the prevailing mortality regime. For interpreting the long-term evolution of the medieval population of Italy, our data suggest that the so-called nutritional hypothesis (the better the nutritional condition, the lower the mortality) does not hold (McKeown 1976; Livi Bacci 1987; Pres-ton and Haines 1991; Fogel 1997).9 Future research should investigate the epidemiological regime of the Middle Ages, especially causes of death. We conclude by briefly reviewing research on this topic and suggesting several possibilities for future studies.

First, the 7th century was a period of climatic change. The period from 600 to 700 was characterized by short-term glacier advance, followed by a period of warming around 748–774. The climate cooled again around 900, and then started warming during the 11th and 12th centuries; the Little Ice Age followed in the 14th century (Fagan 2000; McCormick, Dutton, and Mayewski 2007; Dutton 2008). Harsh winters may have affected food pro-duction and human and animal survival. Second, anthropological research in Italy has paid little attention to bone lesions related to infectious diseases such as those caused by Streptococcus and Staphylococcus, which can be easily identi-fied on the bones. One case study on the spread of infectious diseases among prehistoric skeletons from Dickson Mounds (Illinois, USA) demonstrated the impact that such pathologies can have on the population structure (Goodman and Martin 2002). Third, several scholars suggest that during the Early Middle Ages leprosy and tuberculosis became increasingly widespread, although, in our opinion, their finding requires more empirical evidence (Rouche 1997; Russell 1985). Fourth, the use of DNA analysis of ancient skeletal remains to assess the prevalence of specific diseases holds great promise; results are pri-marily obtained through an examination of skeletal dental pulp as a preserved source of bacterial DNA and of several pathologies such as malaria and plague (Drancourt and Raoult 2002; Cohn and Alfani 2007; McCormick 2007). In Italy, however, this approach is still in its infancy.

Fifth, little is known about the presence of malaria. If widespread (as in Italy until the middle of the 20th century), this disease can have a significant impact on secular variation in mortality and can drastically reduce the aver-age life span (Hackett 1937; Bruce-Chwatt and de Zulueta 1980). Several historical sources describe the spread of malaria in the Roman countryside and, more generally, in Italy between the Roman Era and the Middle Ages



(Cloudsley-Thompson 1976; McCormick 2001; Sallares 2002; Frassine 2006). The population decrease in many Italian provinces during the Early Middle Ages—especially in the plains—has been associated with the expansion of marshes caused by failure to maintain channels, river beds, and aqueducts. This was particularly true of Rome, which was surrounded by naturally marshy plains where, without adequate maintenance, swamp-like areas quickly formed even within the Imperial Aurelian walls. During the Middle Ages, documentary evidence records the death from malaria of several popes and other churchmen. During the same period, unsuccessful attempts were made to drain the marshes of the countryside around Rome. Even the politi-cal upheavals of the Italian Middle Ages were influenced by malaria. Several “barbaric invasions” ended in disaster for the invaders as a consequence of malaria. In 536, the Ostrogoths camped around Rome were so weakened by fever that they were easily defeated by the Byzantine general Belisarius.

Malaria continued to influence the political and social life of Italy—and the lives of common men and women—over the centuries that followed. For example, “marsh fever” played an important role in the conflict between Frederick I Barbarossa and the Italian cities allied with Pope Alexander III. The disastrous defeat Barbarossa suffered in 1176 against the Lombard League in Legnano was attributed to malaria, which had decimated and demoralized his troops. It is probable that the death of the poet Dante Alighieri in 1321 in Ravenna was due to malaria: the town was surrounded by marshes until the 20th century. The establishment of new villages on hilltops, evident in many Italian regions, may also have been a response to the spread of malaria (Skinner 1997).

Another school of thought on the secular trends in malaria in Italy suggests that during the Early Middle Ages the incidence of marsh fever was lower than in either the Late Roman Empire or the High Middle Ages (Celli 1900, 1925; Hackett 1937). In spite of the expansion of marshes, propor-tionately fewer people were at risk, precisely because that expansion and the consequent spread of malarial areas discouraged commerce and mobility. These deleterious circumstances also prompted people to live and work in the hills, where they were at less risk of catching malaria. McCormick (2001: 449) demonstrates that travelers to Italy were aware of the danger of malaria, often choosing the fall season for their trips. In any case, the incidence of this devastating illness requires further study.

More generally, future work should address methods for estimating mortality using data from skeletons. Additional anthropological information on age at death could be gathered in studies on adult skeletal remains (see endnote 6), for which, however, more detailed analyses are missing. (In fact, only eight of the cemeteries considered here include such analyses; none for the entire adult sample.) Moreover, the sex of skeletons could be determined more accurately by DNA testing, overcoming the limitation of traditional



anthropological analysis, which cannot determine the sex of individuals who died before adulthood.

Finally, it is essential to be clear about the interpretative ambiguities of the sources upon which we have based our estimates. Data from the cemeter-ies under study can address only a limited number of questions and range over an extremely long period, a variety of climate regimes, topography, and institutions. Data are particularly scarce for the 8th and 9th centuries. Moreover, very little quantitative information concerning infant mortality, marriage, and fertility is available before the 14th century.

Taken together, however, our data strongly call into question both of the stereotypes discussed at the beginning of our article. The Early Middle Ages was probably neither a Dark Age nor a Golden Age for the Italian population. The available data suggest that the demographic regimes during the 8th–13th centuries must be considered separately from the Roman era and—even more so—from the two preceding centuries and the three centuries that followed, periods that were marked by recurrent cycles of plagues. Recognizable speci-ficities for this time period emerge and merit further study and explanation. Given the paucity of documentary sources for this historical period, we must rely on archaeological findings. At the moment these represent a still limited sample, but, as we have tried to show here, they are potentially very useful for the study of population dynamics and living conditions of the past.

Notes

1 “Nam depopulatar urbes, euersa castra, concrematae ecclesiae, destructa sunt mon-asteria virorum atque feminarum. Desolata ab hominibus praedia atque ab omini cultore destituta in solitudine vacat terra. Nullus hanc possessor inhabitat. Occupaverant bestiae loca, que prius multitudo hominum tenebat. Et quid in aliis mundi partibus agatur ignoro, nam hac in terra, in quia vivimus finem suum mundus non iam nuntiat, sed ostendit” (Greg-ory the Great, Dialogues, III. 38. But see also Gregory the Great, Letters 3.29, 5.37, 11.37). For a skeptical comment on the impartiality of Gregory see Pohl (2000).

2 This technique is used to detect the percentages of calcium (present in milk, dairy products, eggs, and some plants), strontium (indicative of plant nutrients), and zinc (most prevalently found in meat, fish, and some plants) present in the bones of individuals, as indicators of the kinds of foods they consumed (Brown 1974; Lambert et al. 1979; Fornicari et

al. 1984; Gilbert 1985; Price at al. 1985; Bartoli 1991; Pate et al. 2001).

3 One chemical method to estimate weaning behavior in historical populations is to observe stable nitrogen isotope ratios of bone (Schurr 1998; on some of the difficulties involved in estimating exact age at weaning using stable nitrogen isotope ratios see: Rich-ards, Mays, and Fuller 2002), but this method was not applied to any of the Italian cemeter-ies under analysis here.

4 Cribra is an expression of porotic hy-perostosis associated with iron deficiency; in other words, anemia that can be caused by nutritional stress, by congenital hemolytic anemia (thalassemia or falciform anemia), or by the presence of intestinal parasites, which in turn cause anemia (Ancylostoma duodenale). For a more complete description see Goodman and Martin 2002; Wapler et al. 2004; Canci and Minozzi 2005.



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