Policy Scenario Analyis
Chrystalyn Ivie RamosResearch Unit Sustainability and Global Change
Hamburg University
23 April 2008
Policy
• Greenhouse gas tax
Mitigation PotentialsMitigation Potentials
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Car
bon
pric
e (E
uro/
tce)
Mitigation (mmtce)
TechnicalPotentialCompetitive
Potential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Car
bon
Pri
ce in
Eur
o/m
tce
Total Agricultural and Forest Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce
Crop Area Fixed
Crop Area and
Prices Fixed
Crop Area and Prices Endogenous
Prices Fixed
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Car
bon
Pri
ce in
Eur
o/m
tce
Total Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce
Competitive Economic Potential
Simult. Technical Potential
Independent Geographic Potential
IndependentTechnical Potential
0
50
100
150
200
10 Euro/tce 50 Euro/tce 100 Euro/tce 200 Euro/tce
Crop Emissions [mmtce]Livestock Emissions [mmtce]
Tillage Carbon Sequestration [mmtce]Crop and Livestock Emissions [kgce/acre]
Tree Sequestration [mmtce]Bioenergy Offsets [mmtce]
Arable Land Loss [mill acres]Pasture Loss [mill acres]
Forest and Energy Crop Plantations [mill acres]Crop Price Increase [Percent]
Livestock Price Increase [Percent]Net Export Losses [Percent]
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Bill
ion
Eu
ros
Carbon Equivalent (CE) Prices in Euros per Ton
Changes in Welfare Accounts
Gross Ag-Producer Surplus
Emission Payments
Net Ag-Producer Surplus
Ag-Consumer Surplus
GHG Mitigation and MarketsGHG Mitigation and Markets
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Fis
her
ind
ex
Carbon price (Euro/tce)
Crop prices
Livestock prices
Livestock production
Crop productionNet exports
Climate Policy and BioenergyClimate Policy and Bioenergy
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Car
bon
pric
e ($
/ton
of
carb
on)
Emission offsets (million metric tons of carbon)
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Competitive EconomicPotential
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80 100
Ene
rgy
Cro
ps (
mil
lion
acr
es)
Carbon tax on energy ($/ton of carbon)
2010 Capacity
2030 Capacity
2050 Capacity
UnrestrictedCapacity
Power Plant Biomass SupplyPower Plant Biomass Supply
Afforestation PotentialsAfforestation Potentials
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Car
bon
pric
e (E
uro/
tce)
Emission reduction (mmtce)
Technical Potential
Economic PotentialCompetitive
Economic Potential
Biofuel Policy: Livestock EmissionsBiofuel Policy: Livestock EmissionsE
mis
sion
red
uct
ion
(m
mtc
e)
Biofuel carbon price (Euro/tce)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Total LivestockEmission Reductions
Less Enteric Fermentation
Manure Emission Reductions
Forest Policy: Crop EmissionsForest Policy: Crop EmissionsE
mis
sion
s (k
g C
/ha)
Carbon price (Euro/tce)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Nitrogen Fertilizer
Ag-Soil Carbon
Irrigation Use
Fossil Fuel Use
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