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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Being proactively reactive with your
budget and strategic plan
Julie CinkExecutive Director of Business ServicesPrior Lake-Savage ISD 719
Bob ManikasSr. Account ExecutiveForecast5 Analytics
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Prepare
P r o j e c t i n g f u n d b a l a n c e
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
($40,000,000)
($20,000,000)
$0
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-20
RevisedBudget
20-21
Projected
21-22
Projected
22-23
Projected
23-24
Projected
24-25
Projected
Unassigned Fund Balance as % of Expenditures (+125 students/year)
Fund 01 Expenditures Total Unassigned Fund Balance Fund Balance Percentage
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Prepare
B A S I C F O R M U L A
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
School district budgets have many moving pieces. Analyzing changes to enrollment, staffing, revenues, and expenses are a normal part of managing the yearly budget.
By analyzing and benchmarking historical revenue and expenditure
trends to your budget, you’ll be better prepared to react to the unexpected and reallocate resources well before fiscal year end.
What’s more, by creating and comparing various “what-if” scenarios, districts can remain nimble as they plan for future years.
In this session, we will review successful strategies for being proactively reactive in your budget and strategic planning with an eye on the role of
the School Board in this process.
Strategies for being Proactive
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
What do we know about budgets and forecasts? ❑ Complex❑ Confusing❑ Imperative
➢ How do communicate the critical assumptions in the forecast?
What does the community know about budgets and forecasts? ❑ What we tell them❑ What they can find
➢ How do we best tell our story along with the data?
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Fi rs t s teps in be ing proact ively react i ve
D ev e l op g r ou p o f p eer s t o b en c h m ar k ag a i n s t
A s k t h e c r i t i c a l q u es t i on s :
W ha t a r e t he f i na nc i a l t r e nd s t ha t m i g ht
i m p a c t o ur f u t ur e ?
H o w d o t ho s e t r e nd s c o m p a r e t o o t he r s c ho o l s d i s t r i c t s t ha t a r e l i k e us ?
U n d er s t an d y ou r h i s t o r y
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends and Benchmarks
Being Proactively Reactive With
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
Total enrollment growth 2007-2019
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
7,529
7,840
8,307
8,561
8,796 8,838
7,491
7,872
8,277
8,503
8,697
51
45
41
38
54
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
8,800
9,000
2014-15
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
ENROLLMENT OCT 1 TO END OF YEAR COMPARISONS
Oct 1 Enrollment Served EOY Enrollment Served Tuition Students
Open Enrollment limited to 75 in Kindergarten and 1% grades 1-12
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
E n r o l l m e n t H i s t o r y – E O Y A D M
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
I m p a c t o f O p e n
E n r o l l m e n t
N e t i m p a c t o f i n b o u n d
v s . o u t b o u n d
L i v e e x a m p l e s
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
I m p a c t o f Op e n E nr o l l m e nt
N et i m p ac t o f i n b ou n d v s . ou t b ou n d
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
I m p a c t o f C h a n g i n g
D e m o g r a p h i c s
B u i l d i n g l e v e l
d e m o g r a p h i c t r e n d s
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Histor ica l Trends
F r e e a n d R e d u c e d
L u n c h T r e n d v s . To t a l E n r o l l m e n t T r e n d
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Histor ica l TrendsF r e e a n d R e d u c e d L u n c h T r e n d
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Histor ica l Trends
Growth in staff FTE vs. growth in enrollment
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
R a t i o A D M S t a f f p e r S t u d e n t
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
E n r o l l m e n t v s . Te a c h e r F T E C h a n g e
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
E n r o l l m e n t v s . A l l F T E C h a n g e
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
R e v e n u e a n d E x p e n s e p e r S t u d e n t
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
R e v e n u e , E x p e n s e , a n d F u n d B a l a n c e
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
C o m p e n s a t o r y R e v e n u e C o m p a r i s o n
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
R e f e r e n d u m A u t h o r i t y
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Histor ica l Trends
Te c h L e v y
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
S p e n d i n g o v e r t i m e
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l Trends
S p e n d i n g o v e r t i m e o n a
p e r s t u d e n t b a s i s v s b e n c h m a r k p e e r g r o u p
L i v e e x a m p l e s
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Histor ica l TrendsS p e c i a l E d u c a t i o n S p e n d i n g P e r
A D M C o m p a r i s o n F Y 2 0 1 8
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Current Year Surve i l lance of the Budget
Being Proactively Reactive With
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Current Year Analys is
P r o j e c t m o n t h l y f u n d - b a l a n c e DEMO DATA
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Current Year Analys is
H i s t o r i c a l a c t u a l s a n d s p e n d i n g t r e n d
DEMO DATA
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29
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Current Year Analys is
I d e n t i f y h i s t o r i c a l a n o m a l i e s
DEMO DATA
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Current Year Analys is
P r o j e c t m o n t h l y a c t u a l s
DEMO DATA
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Current Year Analys is
Va r i a n c e a n a l y s i s DEMO DATA
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Current Year Analys is
P r o j e c t e d y e a r - e n d f i n a n c i a l s
DEMO DATA
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
“W hat - i f ” Scenar io Analys i s
Being Proactively Reactive With
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Prepare
P r o j e c t i n g f u n d b a l a n c e
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
($40,000,000)
($20,000,000)
$0
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-20RevisedBudget
20-21Projected
21-22Projected
22-23Projected
23-24Projected
24-25Projected
Unassigned Fund Balance as % of Expenditures (+125 students/year)
Fund 01 Expenditures Total Unassigned Fund Balance Fund Balance Percentage
34
35
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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Prepare
F u n d B a l a n c e S c e n a r i o C o m p a r i s o n
DEMO DATA
©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!
Thank you!
Questions?
Julie CinkExecutive Director of Business ServicesPrior Lake-Savage ISD 719
Bob ManikasSr. Account ExecutiveForecast5 Analytics
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