Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company
Toothpaste case
Marktonderzoek in rechte lijn uitg. De Boeck
Marc De Laet
Pol Toye
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company
Page 2
Some Nielsen Definitions
• PC Selling WD : the Product Class Selling Weighted Distribution is a measure of the distribution of the line, or product or item chosen based on the number of shops selling the product category corrected by the product class turnover, expressed in %
• % ND Selling : the Numeric Distribution is a measure of the number of shops selling the chosen product based on the number of projected shops in the total Nielsen universe, expressed in %
• Any promo PC Selling WD : The Any Promo Product category Selling Weighted Distribution is a measure of distribution for the shops where the product was sold with display and/or feature (folder an / or price cut, corrected for their product category turnover
• Rate Of Sales Index (value) : sales value per point of weighted distribution (formula = value sales/weighted Distribution)
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Some Nielsen Definitions
• Shelf in centimetres : the linear space that a brand occupies on the shelves in the shops, expressed in centimetres
• Average Retail Price equ : The Average Retail Price Equivalised is the sales value divided by the sales in volume in equivalised units (litres, pieces, kilo, …)
• Share of Promotional Sales : weight of the promo sales of brand A versus the total sales of brand A
• Promo Pressure : weight of the promo sales of brand A versus the total promo sales of the market
• MAT = Moving Annual Total• W201209 = Week ending on 20/12/2009• PL = Private Labels
ToothpasteCategory Overview
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Page 5
Intro within Aldi of PL Sensitive Withening (only in the south)Toothpaste – MAT December 2009
Sales value in '000€54 053.2
28 666.413 572.2
8 706.0 3 108.6
29 648.1
4 744.7
19 660.4
TOTALBELGIUM
F1 F2 HD F3 NORTH BRUSSELS SOUTH% Value change vs LY
5.42.9 3.3
20.6
2.0 2.5
-2.6
12.5
TOTALBELGIUM
F1 F2 HD F3 NORTH BRUSSELS SOUTH% Price change vs LY
-1.3
1.5
0.1
-1.4
1.0
-0.3
1.8
-2.6TOTAL
BELGIUMF1 F2 HD F3 NORTH BRUSSELS SOUTH
All data are fictive
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Page 6
Toothpaste – Sales Value difference in ‘000€ MAT 09 vs MAT08
Total Belgium
1 463
2 380
149
-818
-223
Aquafresh
Theramed
Signal
Colgate
PL
North
50
768
620
-570
-99
S = +1 710
S = +669
S = +198
S = -99
S = -174
South+Brussels
-248
124
719
1735
-99
All data are fictive
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Page 7
Major players - Total BelgiumShare value (vs total Toothpaste)
22.3 25.5 21.6 21.8 25.1 25.6 25.4 26.2 28.6 26.4 25.3 26.5 26.4 24.9 25.7 23.6
8.17.3
7.7 7.67.0 8.5 8.0 7.1
6.9 7.8 7.1 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.16.8
15.7 13.314.7 14.6 13.0 13.0 14.0 13.5 12.8 13.7 14.8 12.6 12.9 13.8 11.6 13.5
24.5 25.923.5 25.5 24.0
26.7 25.3 27.2 24.4 24.8 26.0 26.4 28.2 28.426.0 24.1
27.9 26.8 31.4 29.3 29.9 25.0 26.2 25.1 26.4 26.4 25.9 27.0 24.5 24.7 28.5 29.0
0.0 0.2 0.1 2.1
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
MA
T 0
8
MA
T 0
9
04/0
1/20
09
01/0
2/20
09
01/0
3/20
09
29/0
3/20
09
26/0
4/20
09
24/0
5/20
09
21/0
6/20
09
19/0
7/20
09
16/0
8/20
09
13/0
9/20
09
11/1
0/20
09
08/1
1/20
09
06/1
2/20
09
03/0
1/20
10
PL Theramed Aquafresh Colgate Signal Oral B
All data are fictive
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Page 8
Topic : Why has Signal lost €495.8K with the switch from Kids to Chupa Chups (Jan 09)
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Page 9
Total Belgium – Signal Varieties – Sales value in ‘000€
132.3 131.6 119.0 128.9 143.8 151.2 158.7 153.7 131.4 133.9183.4 138.8
68.6 94.466.9 64.5 62.0 76.8 76.8 99.2
76.8 86.8
101.696.7
148.2 110.0138.8 151.2 161.1
190.9 178.5 116.5
89.2 101.6
123.9
109.1
132.1 146.4 136.3 136.3151.2
138.8 141.3163.6
131.4141.3
176.0
153.7
282.4 275.4250.4
272.7285.1
307.4 280.1 304.9
245.4250.4
304.9
255.3
112.1 123.4114.0
111.6109.1
131.4136.3 111.6
109.1109.1
133.9
141.30.0 12.0
0.00.0
0.0
0.00.0 0.0
0.00.0
42.1
109.1
Av.
MA
T 0
8
Av.
MA
T 0
9
31/0
8/20
08
28/0
9/20
08
26/1
0/20
08
23/1
1/20
08
21/1
2/20
08
30/0
8/20
09
27/0
9/20
08
25/1
0/20
08
22/1
1/20
08
20/1
2/20
08
Ice Cool + Integral Fresh Explosive Mint + Aqua Mint Kids + Chupa Chups
White System Natural + White system Protection Caries + Anti Caries Balsam
Integral 8
All data are fictive
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Page 10
893.6 934.8 894.4 940.3
1 132.6
908.4
1 602.3 1 615.0
2 089.3 2 032.3
1 614.71 788.3
P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12
Kids (2008) Chupa Chups (2009)
Total Belgium – Rate of Sales index in value
Three months before being delisted
Nine monthsAfter being introduced
All data are fictive
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Page 11
Total Belgium
2008PC
SELLING WD
ANY PROMO
PC SELLING
WD
TOTAL SHELF CM
AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE
EQU (L)
03/08/2008 82 55 42 625 93.0031/08/2008 83 32 42 625 98.0028/09/2008 82 41 42 625 99.00
Kids 26/10/2008 82 68 42 625 101.0023/11/2008 82 29 42 625 102.7021/12/2008 82 46 42 625 98.60
2009PC
SELLING WD
ANY PROMO
PC SELLING
WD
TOTAL SHELF CM
AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE
EQU (L)
02/08/2009 72 26 34 945 104.3030/08/2009 73 34 34 945 104.5027/09/2009 74 26 34 945 104.90
Chupa Chups 25/10/2009 76 42 34 945 105.1022/11/2009 76 69 34 945 101.8020/12/2009 76 15 34 945 103.70
All data are fictive
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Page 12
Share Value vs total Toothpaste – 6P ending Dec08/09
7.2
4.0
COLRUYT
Kids
ChupaChups
4.2
2.3
DELHAIZE
2.9
2.3
GB
Kids
ChupaChups
3.7
1.9
F2
All data are fictive
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company
Page 13
Colgate Lolly – Share Value vs total toothpaste
4.0
2.72.92.9 2.9
1.8
COLRUYT DELHAIZE GB
6M ENDING DEC 08 6M ENDING DEC 09
All data are fictive
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Page 14
Topic : How is Signal performing vs Oral B and Aquafresh in the new segment of ‘Erosion’
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Page 15
Total Belgium – ‘Erosion’ segment – sales value
6 96613 857 18 047 17 650
23 228
35 647 33 590
719
2 6772 851 7 858
16 361
19 683 23 699
0
0
4 685
13 659
13 684
14 15515 518
0
595
4 338
8 528
7 9828 999
0
7 685
16 534
26 178
43 505
61 800
77 46781 805
W081109 W151109 W221109 W291109 W061209 W131209 W201209
Signal Integral 8 Aquafresh Proglasur Oral B Pro Expert Mint Oral B Pro Expert Citrus Total
All data are fictive
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Page 16
PROMO - Total Belgium – Segment ‘Erosion’Signal Integral 8 Aquafresh Proglasur Oral B Pro Expert Mint
Share Value (vs Total erosion segment) 69.0 40.6 37.6 46.0 41.1 10.9 18.1 26.5 25.4 29.0 17.9 31.4 22.1 18.3 19.0Share of PROMOTIONAL sales (Value) 34.1 10.6 16.4 28.4 12.7 12.7 32.3 53.0 15.8 8.3 29.2 73.0 22.0 9.7 12.8
Promo Pressure (Value) 74.0 11.8 23.1 65.1 41.0 4.3 16.0 52.6 20.0 19.0 16.5 63.0 18.2 8.9 19.1
0.50.6
0.8
1.0
1.20.20.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.7 0.7
1.0
1.4 1.4
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
Promo Sales Value
Neutral Sales Value
0.10.2
0.3
0.7
0.9
0
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
0.1 0.1
0.4
0.5 0.5
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1 0.1
0.2
0.5 0.5
0.6 0.6
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
All data are fictive
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Page 17
DELHAIZE
1.62.7 3.0
3.85.0 4.8
3.8
2.4
2.40.5
0.1
0.1 0.0
0.0
3.8 4.0
5.1
3.53.9
5.1 4.8
W08
1109
W15
1109
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
COLRUYT
1.73.1 3.1 2.7 2.6
3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0 0.0 1.12.9
1.8
0.0
1.7
3.1 3.13.8
5.5 5.6
W08
1109
W15
1109
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
PROMO SHAREVALUENEUTRAL SHAREVALUEtotal
MESTDAGH
0.2 0.01.8 2.2
3.9 4.66.4
0.0
6.1
0.0 0.0
0.00.0
0.0
0.2
6.1
1.8 2.2
3.94.6
6.4
W08
1109
W15
1109
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
GB Supermarkets
0.0 0.0 0.0
1.42.5
3.4 3.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
1.4
2.5
3.43.0
W08
1109
W15
1109
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
PROMO SHAREVALUE
NEUTRAL SHAREVALUE
total
PROMO in F1 – Signal Integral 8Folder 2.95-2.7
Red Price
All data are fictive
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Page 18
Distribution in F1 – Introduction in the distribution
Delhaize Colruyt GB Mestd.Signal Integral 8 19-Oct 16-Nov 23-Nov 09-Nov OctoberAquafresh Proglasur 16-Nov 14-Dec 09-Nov 07-Dec NovemberOral B Pro Expert Mint 09-Nov 07-Dec 23-Nov 21-Dec DecemberOral B Pro Expert Citrus 14-Dec 23-Nov
PC Selling WD
23 2216 19
5665
7989 87 88
1
1627
34
52
7888
9 919
4452
7887
2
2532
5462
W 1
8100
9
W25
1009
W01
1109
W08
1109
W15
1109
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
All data are fictive
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Page 19
Distribution in F2 – Introduction in the distribution
GB Interm. SparSignal Integral 8 09-Nov 19-Oct 19-Oct OctoberAquafresh Proglasur 09-Nov 23-Nov 09-Nov NovembeOral B Pro Expert Mint 07-Dec 23-Nov 23-Nov DecemberOral B Pro Expert Citrus 30-Nov 23-Nov 30-Nov
PC Selling WD
11
24 22 22
3437 39
51
5862
37
20
34
46
5660
3 4
25
41
5953
65
4 4
16
33 31
38
W 1
8100
9
W25
1009
W01
1109
W08
1109
W15
1109
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
All data are fictive
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Page 20
Rate of Sales hit-parade (week 20/12/2009) Total Belgium – Signal varieties
High to low
SALES VALUE
PC SELLING
WD
DEMAND INDEX
Anti Caries 63 723 82 777Integral Fresh 41 427 73 567Integral 8 33 587 67 501White System 35 676 72 495Aqua Mint 22 688 53 428Balsam 31 773 75 424Chupa Chups 20 600 61 338
All data are fictive
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Page 21
Price – Average retail price (per SKU) – 75ml Total Belgium
2.922.82 2.77 2.71
2.802.90 2.90 2.87 2.79 2.88
3.28 3.23 3.21 3.193.09
3.24 3.23
3.94 3.94 3.863.62
3.90 3.86 3.80
3.94 3.94
3.693.90 3.86 3.80
W 1
8100
9
W25
1009
W01
1109
W08
1109
W15
1109
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
Signal Integral 8 Aquafresh Proglasur
Oral B Pro Expert Mint Oral B Pro Expert Citrus
All data are fictive
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Page 22
Rate of Sales Index (in value) for the ‘erosion’ segmentTotal Belgium
151121
150
435
364420
333387
566
501
335
191150
291
431
352 364
65101
291
402
318
232 235
163
291
402
341
216 205
W 1
8100
9
W25
1009
W01
1109
W08
1109
W15
1109
W22
1109
W29
1109
W06
1209
W13
1209
W20
1209
Signal Integral 8 Aquafresh Proglasur
Oral B Pro Expert Mint Oral B Pro Expert Citrus
All data are fictive
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