Marktonderzoek in rechte lijn deel 2 case_toothpaste

Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company

Toothpaste case

Marktonderzoek in rechte lijn uitg. De Boeck

Marc De Laet

Pol Toye

Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company

Page 2

Some Nielsen Definitions

• PC Selling WD : the Product Class Selling Weighted Distribution is a measure of the distribution of the line, or product or item chosen based on the number of shops selling the product category corrected by the product class turnover, expressed in %

• % ND Selling : the Numeric Distribution is a measure of the number of shops selling the chosen product based on the number of projected shops in the total Nielsen universe, expressed in %

• Any promo PC Selling WD : The Any Promo Product category Selling Weighted Distribution is a measure of distribution for the shops where the product was sold with display and/or feature (folder an / or price cut, corrected for their product category turnover

• Rate Of Sales Index (value) : sales value per point of weighted distribution (formula = value sales/weighted Distribution)


Page 3

Some Nielsen Definitions

• Shelf in centimetres : the linear space that a brand occupies on the shelves in the shops, expressed in centimetres

• Average Retail Price equ : The Average Retail Price Equivalised is the sales value divided by the sales in volume in equivalised units (litres, pieces, kilo, …)

• Share of Promotional Sales : weight of the promo sales of brand A versus the total sales of brand A

• Promo Pressure : weight of the promo sales of brand A versus the total promo sales of the market

• MAT = Moving Annual Total• W201209 = Week ending on 20/12/2009• PL = Private Labels

ToothpasteCategory Overview


Page 5

Intro within Aldi of PL Sensitive Withening (only in the south)Toothpaste – MAT December 2009

Sales value in '000€54 053.2

28 666.413 572.2

8 706.0 3 108.6

29 648.1

4 744.7

19 660.4

TOTALBELGIUM

F1 F2 HD F3 NORTH BRUSSELS SOUTH% Value change vs LY

5.42.9 3.3

20.6

2.0 2.5

-2.6

12.5

TOTALBELGIUM

F1 F2 HD F3 NORTH BRUSSELS SOUTH% Price change vs LY

-1.3

1.5

0.1

-1.4

1.0

-0.3

1.8

-2.6TOTAL

BELGIUMF1 F2 HD F3 NORTH BRUSSELS SOUTH

All data are fictive


Page 6

Toothpaste – Sales Value difference in ‘000€ MAT 09 vs MAT08

Total Belgium

1 463

2 380

149

-818

-223

Aquafresh

Theramed

Signal

Colgate

PL

North

50

768

620

-570

-99

S = +1 710

S = +669

S = +198

S = -99

S = -174

South+Brussels

-248

124

719

1735

-99



Page 7

Major players - Total BelgiumShare value (vs total Toothpaste)

22.3 25.5 21.6 21.8 25.1 25.6 25.4 26.2 28.6 26.4 25.3 26.5 26.4 24.9 25.7 23.6

8.17.3

7.7 7.67.0 8.5 8.0 7.1

6.9 7.8 7.1 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.16.8

15.7 13.314.7 14.6 13.0 13.0 14.0 13.5 12.8 13.7 14.8 12.6 12.9 13.8 11.6 13.5

24.5 25.923.5 25.5 24.0

26.7 25.3 27.2 24.4 24.8 26.0 26.4 28.2 28.426.0 24.1

27.9 26.8 31.4 29.3 29.9 25.0 26.2 25.1 26.4 26.4 25.9 27.0 24.5 24.7 28.5 29.0

0.0 0.2 0.1 2.1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

MA

T 0

8

MA

T 0

9

04/0

1/20

09

01/0

2/20

09

01/0

3/20

09

29/0

3/20

09

26/0

4/20

09

24/0

5/20

09

21/0

6/20

09

19/0

7/20

09

16/0

8/20

09

13/0

9/20

09

11/1

0/20

09

08/1

1/20

09

06/1

2/20

09

03/0

1/20

10

PL Theramed Aquafresh Colgate Signal Oral B



Page 8

Topic : Why has Signal lost €495.8K with the switch from Kids to Chupa Chups (Jan 09)


Page 9

Total Belgium – Signal Varieties – Sales value in ‘000€

132.3 131.6 119.0 128.9 143.8 151.2 158.7 153.7 131.4 133.9183.4 138.8

68.6 94.466.9 64.5 62.0 76.8 76.8 99.2

76.8 86.8

101.696.7

148.2 110.0138.8 151.2 161.1

190.9 178.5 116.5

89.2 101.6

123.9

109.1

132.1 146.4 136.3 136.3151.2

138.8 141.3163.6

131.4141.3

176.0

153.7

282.4 275.4250.4

272.7285.1

307.4 280.1 304.9

245.4250.4

304.9

255.3

112.1 123.4114.0

111.6109.1

131.4136.3 111.6

109.1109.1

133.9

141.30.0 12.0

0.00.0

0.0

0.00.0 0.0

0.00.0

42.1

109.1

Av.

MA

T 0

8

Av.

MA

T 0

9

31/0

8/20

08

28/0

9/20

08

26/1

0/20

08

23/1

1/20

08

21/1

2/20

08

30/0

8/20

09

27/0

9/20

08

25/1

0/20

08

22/1

1/20

08

20/1

2/20

08

Ice Cool + Integral Fresh Explosive Mint + Aqua Mint Kids + Chupa Chups

White System Natural + White system Protection Caries + Anti Caries Balsam

Integral 8



Page 10

893.6 934.8 894.4 940.3

1 132.6

908.4

1 602.3 1 615.0

2 089.3 2 032.3

1 614.71 788.3

P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12

Kids (2008) Chupa Chups (2009)

Total Belgium – Rate of Sales index in value

Three months before being delisted

Nine monthsAfter being introduced



Page 11

Total Belgium

2008PC

SELLING WD

ANY PROMO

PC SELLING

WD

TOTAL SHELF CM

AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE

EQU (L)

03/08/2008 82 55 42 625 93.0031/08/2008 83 32 42 625 98.0028/09/2008 82 41 42 625 99.00

Kids 26/10/2008 82 68 42 625 101.0023/11/2008 82 29 42 625 102.7021/12/2008 82 46 42 625 98.60

2009PC

SELLING WD

ANY PROMO

PC SELLING

WD

TOTAL SHELF CM

AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE

EQU (L)

02/08/2009 72 26 34 945 104.3030/08/2009 73 34 34 945 104.5027/09/2009 74 26 34 945 104.90

Chupa Chups 25/10/2009 76 42 34 945 105.1022/11/2009 76 69 34 945 101.8020/12/2009 76 15 34 945 103.70



Page 12

Share Value vs total Toothpaste – 6P ending Dec08/09

7.2

4.0

COLRUYT

Kids

ChupaChups

4.2

2.3

DELHAIZE

2.9

2.3

GB

Kids

ChupaChups

3.7

1.9

F2



Page 13

Colgate Lolly – Share Value vs total toothpaste

4.0

2.72.92.9 2.9

1.8

COLRUYT DELHAIZE GB

6M ENDING DEC 08 6M ENDING DEC 09



Page 14

Topic : How is Signal performing vs Oral B and Aquafresh in the new segment of ‘Erosion’


Page 15

Total Belgium – ‘Erosion’ segment – sales value

6 96613 857 18 047 17 650

23 228

35 647 33 590

719

2 6772 851 7 858

16 361

19 683 23 699

0

0

4 685

13 659

13 684

14 15515 518

0

595

4 338

8 528

7 9828 999

0

7 685

16 534

26 178

43 505

61 800

77 46781 805

W081109 W151109 W221109 W291109 W061209 W131209 W201209

Signal Integral 8 Aquafresh Proglasur Oral B Pro Expert Mint Oral B Pro Expert Citrus Total



Page 16

PROMO - Total Belgium – Segment ‘Erosion’Signal Integral 8 Aquafresh Proglasur Oral B Pro Expert Mint

Share Value (vs Total erosion segment) 69.0 40.6 37.6 46.0 41.1 10.9 18.1 26.5 25.4 29.0 17.9 31.4 22.1 18.3 19.0Share of PROMOTIONAL sales (Value) 34.1 10.6 16.4 28.4 12.7 12.7 32.3 53.0 15.8 8.3 29.2 73.0 22.0 9.7 12.8

Promo Pressure (Value) 74.0 11.8 23.1 65.1 41.0 4.3 16.0 52.6 20.0 19.0 16.5 63.0 18.2 8.9 19.1

0.50.6

0.8

1.0

1.20.20.1

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.7 0.7

1.0

1.4 1.4

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209

Promo Sales Value

Neutral Sales Value

0.10.2

0.3

0.7

0.9

0

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.0

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209

0.1 0.1

0.4

0.5 0.5

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.1 0.1

0.2

0.5 0.5

0.6 0.6

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209



Page 17

DELHAIZE

1.62.7 3.0

3.85.0 4.8

3.8

2.4

2.40.5

0.1

0.1 0.0

0.0

3.8 4.0

5.1

3.53.9

5.1 4.8

W08

1109

W15

1109

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209

COLRUYT

1.73.1 3.1 2.7 2.6

3.8

0.0

0.0

0.0 0.0 1.12.9

1.8

0.0

1.7

3.1 3.13.8

5.5 5.6

W08

1109

W15

1109

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209

PROMO SHAREVALUENEUTRAL SHAREVALUEtotal

MESTDAGH

0.2 0.01.8 2.2

3.9 4.66.4

0.0

6.1

0.0 0.0

0.00.0

0.0

0.2

6.1

1.8 2.2

3.94.6

6.4

W08

1109

W15

1109

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209

GB Supermarkets

0.0 0.0 0.0

1.42.5

3.4 3.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0

0.0

0.00.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

1.4

2.5

3.43.0

W08

1109

W15

1109

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209

PROMO SHAREVALUE

NEUTRAL SHAREVALUE

total

PROMO in F1 – Signal Integral 8Folder 2.95-2.7

Red Price



Page 18

Distribution in F1 – Introduction in the distribution

Delhaize Colruyt GB Mestd.Signal Integral 8 19-Oct 16-Nov 23-Nov 09-Nov OctoberAquafresh Proglasur 16-Nov 14-Dec 09-Nov 07-Dec NovemberOral B Pro Expert Mint 09-Nov 07-Dec 23-Nov 21-Dec DecemberOral B Pro Expert Citrus 14-Dec 23-Nov

PC Selling WD

23 2216 19

5665

7989 87 88

1

1627

34

52

7888

9 919

4452

7887

2

2532

5462

W 1

8100

9

W25

1009

W01

1109

W08

1109

W15

1109

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209



Page 19

Distribution in F2 – Introduction in the distribution

GB Interm. SparSignal Integral 8 09-Nov 19-Oct 19-Oct OctoberAquafresh Proglasur 09-Nov 23-Nov 09-Nov NovembeOral B Pro Expert Mint 07-Dec 23-Nov 23-Nov DecemberOral B Pro Expert Citrus 30-Nov 23-Nov 30-Nov

PC Selling WD

11

24 22 22

3437 39

51

5862

37

20

34

46

5660

3 4

25

41

5953

65

4 4

16

33 31

38

W 1

8100

9

W25

1009

W01

1109

W08

1109

W15

1109

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209



Page 20

Rate of Sales hit-parade (week 20/12/2009) Total Belgium – Signal varieties

High to low

SALES VALUE

PC SELLING

WD

DEMAND INDEX

Anti Caries 63 723 82 777Integral Fresh 41 427 73 567Integral 8 33 587 67 501White System 35 676 72 495Aqua Mint 22 688 53 428Balsam 31 773 75 424Chupa Chups 20 600 61 338



Page 21

Price – Average retail price (per SKU) – 75ml Total Belgium

2.922.82 2.77 2.71

2.802.90 2.90 2.87 2.79 2.88

3.28 3.23 3.21 3.193.09

3.24 3.23

3.94 3.94 3.863.62

3.90 3.86 3.80

3.94 3.94

3.693.90 3.86 3.80

W 1

8100

9

W25

1009

W01

1109

W08

1109

W15

1109

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209

Signal Integral 8 Aquafresh Proglasur

Oral B Pro Expert Mint Oral B Pro Expert Citrus



Page 22

Rate of Sales Index (in value) for the ‘erosion’ segmentTotal Belgium

151121

150

435

364420

333387

566

501

335

191150

291

431

352 364

65101

291

402

318

232 235

163

291

402

341

216 205

W 1

8100

9

W25

1009

W01

1109

W08

1109

W15

1109

W22

1109

W29

1109

W06

1209

W13

1209

W20

1209

Signal Integral 8 Aquafresh Proglasur

Oral B Pro Expert Mint Oral B Pro Expert Citrus



Page 23

Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company

Thank you

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Marktonderzoek in rechte lijn deel 2 case_toothpaste