International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Mandira Singh Shrestha
New strategy of ICIMOD and water related activities
CORDEX South Asia science workshopKathmandu, Nepal27-30th August 2013
Presentation outline
· Water security in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region and climate change impacts
· About ICIMOD· Introduction· New strategy· Regional Programmes and Thematic Areas
· River basin programme at ICIMOD· Challenges, goals and objectives· Examples: Flood disasters in the HKH region (HKH HYCOS),Koshi basin, HICAP, Satellite rainfall estimate application
· Summary
Mountains matter
· Mountain ecosystems – a global resourceVital for water, food, energy, forests, biodiversity
· Mountains are under pressure· Mountain people offer solutions
Largest body of ice outside the Polar caps, the “Third Pole”
Himalayan glaciers are sources of freshwater reserves which provide headwaters for major river systems in Asia
Sustenance to about 1.3 billion people
Himalayan region: Source of 10 major river systems –the “water tower” of Asia
4
Water security in HKH region
There is high spatial and temporal variability in precipitation and development of water resources Pakistan: lowest per capita
water availability in Asia India: World’s largest
consumer of ground water Bangladesh: Geographically,
the south asian state most vulnerable to water insecurity
Bhutan and Nepal: water rich but with spatial variation
Afghanistan: Arid, mountainous, poor water infrastructure
Monsoon (Jun-Sep)
> 25002000 - 25001500 - 20001000 - 1500500 - 1000100 - 5000 - 100Ocean
High natural vulnerability in mountains increased by:
· Climate change and glacial retreat
· Unplanned, inappropriate or inadequate infrastructure development
· Unsustainable natural resource exploitation
· Widespread poverty, marginalisation & conflict
Climate change impacts in the mountains· Rate of warming is higher in the mountains than in the plains (Shrestha
et al., 1999) and five times faster than warming globally (Lau et al., 2006)
· Glaciers and snow melt accelerated· Potential impacts on agriculture and ecosystems · “Too much and too little”· Increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) due to increased
volume of water in glacial lakes· Changing water availability downstream particularly during the lean flow
season· Hydropower sector· Water supply and irrigation
· Increased occurrence of floods and droughts
Role of snow and ice
UNEP, 2007
How much has the glaciers retreated?
The glacier outlines derived from different time series data (1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010)
· Langtang (-25%)· Imja (-27%)· Jhelum (-21.4%)· Narayani (-26.2%)· Manas (-21%)
Rate of change varies with each decade
Disasters in the Himalayas(1979-2008)
Disasters
FLOOD
Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
One third of the disaster are floods
Pakistan floods: 2000 killed, 20 million affected
Uttarakhand disaster:>5000 killed, millions affected
Most floods are transboundary which requires cooperation across borders
• Afghanistan• Bangladesh• Bhutan• China• India• Myanmar• Nepal• Pakistan
Member Countries
Intergovernmental, knowledge, learning and enabling centre
Vision, Mission, and Governance
VisionMen, women, and children of the Hindu Kush Himalayas enjoy improved wellbeing in a healthy mountain environment.
Governance Board of Governors
(Government representatives and independent members)
Programme Advisory Committee ICIMOD Support Group Finance CommitteeMission
To enable sustainable and resilient mountain development for improved and equitable livelihoods through knowledge and regional cooperation.
How does ICIMOD work?
· Bridge science with policies and practice and provides a regional platform where policy makers, experts, planners, and practitioners can exchange ideas and perspectives towards the achievement of sustainable mountain development
· Facilitates knowledge exchange across the region
· Tailor international knowledge to the region’s needs
· Brings regional issues to the global stage
· Partnership with regional and international agencies.
ICIMOD’s strategic framework (2013-2017)Responding to the challenges of global change: enhancing resilience and
supporting adaptation of mountain communities.
ICIMOD’s regional programme focus
Cryosphere – River basins:· Cryosphere Monitoring, field observation,
customizing methodologies, regional cooperation. (Macro)
Watersheds – Adaptation:· Hazards, resources, ecosystem services, adaptive
research, training, networking. (Meso)Livelihood – Resilience:· Medicinal herbs, eco-tourism, livelihood options:
Networking NGOs. (Micro)
River basin management programme
· Challenges: To manage the problem of too much water in the wet season and too little water in the dry season and the consequences for water-related hazards and food, energy, and environmental security
· Goal: Improved integrated river basin management to reduce physical vulnerabilities and improve food and energy security for mountain and downstream communities in the HKH region while recognizing upstream interests
· Big question? How does climate change affect Himalayan glaciers, rivers, atmosphere and through these impacts, people of the Himalayas
World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS)
WMO Global framework
· improve the basic observation activities
· strengthen international cooperation
· promote free exchange of hydrometeorology data and increase scientific cooperation
WHYCOS's ultimate objective is to promote and facilitate the collection, analysis, exchange, dissemination and use of water-related information, using modern information technologies.
HKH-HYCOS: Setting up monitoring stations and establishment of real-time flood information systems
‘Making Information Travel Faster Than Flood Waters’
Establishment of a Regional Flood Information System in the HKH-Region - Timely exchange of flood data and information through an accessible and user friendly platform
HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer, training, and capacity building
Designing end-to-end flood information system
Real time data acquisition and transmission
Rainfall validation: CPC-RFE2.0: 23 July 2002 Bagmati
Modified RFE
Comparison of satellite products
Observed
RFE2.0 Modified
GSMaP
CMORPH TRMM 3B42
CPC_RFE2.0
Satellite rainfall estimates: 16 June in and around Kedarnath
HICAP: Integrated policy and user-relevant research
· The Himalaya Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) is one of the collaborative, policy relevant project focused on knowledge from and for local communities and for on the ground impact.
· HICAP is an example of integrated research across the sciences dedicated to identifying credible, legitimate, and salient adaptation challenges and opportunities in the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya region.
HICAP: Key research questions
1. What are the potential impacts (positive and negative) of climate change and other drivers of change, and how can we enhance the capacity to monitor them?
2. What are the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the socio-economic systems?
3. What evidence based information on the potential, risks and opportunities can be provided to the decisions makers in order to increase the adaptive capacity of mountain people, especially women?
Koshi basin programme
· Objective 1: Development of new policy relevant knowledge on how climatic and socio-economic drivers impact on ecosystem services and livelihoods of dependent populations.
· Objective 2: Develop and test actionable adaptation pilots and livelihood strategies considering their efficacy and acceptability by various socio-cultural and gender groups
· Objective 3: Contribute to developing an enabling environment for policy and decision makers to create integrated, innovative, equitable, inclusive and effective responses to protect and manage river basin ecosystems and to reduce poverty in the frame of integrated natural resources
Summary
· ICIMOD works in partnerships with regional and international organizations
· Facilitates knowledge exchange and a platform for regional cooperation
· The new strategy aims to improve science quality and demonstrates impacts through its regional programmes
· ICIMOD is a member of the SC of MAIRS and takes the lead of the mountain group
Joint workshops and conferences – June 2012 meeting in Pokhara, CORDEX South Asia workshop in August 2013
Knowledge sharing and joint publications
Improve linkages and synergize with other global and regional initiatives
· Strengthened partnerships and promotion of regional and international cooperation.
Thank you
Workshop modalities
· WCRP CORDEX provide global coordination of regional climate downscaling for improved regional climate change adaptation and impact assessment
· Part 1: Science workshop (Day 1 and Day 2)· Part 2: Training (Day 3 and Day 4)
Workshop themes
· Evaluation of monsoon climate simulation in HKH and Tibetan Plateau region from multiple climate models (onset and withdraw, seasonal and intra-seasonal variability, flood, drought, heat wave etc.).
· Assessment of downscaling techniques and their products in HKH and Tibetan Plateau region to understand uncertainties accompanying the regional climate projections and examine the feasibility of climate model results.
· Bridging the gaps between end users’ needs and climate modeling communities, and meeting the requests of end-users (hydrology, agriculture, water resources, land cover and ecosystem, human health etc.) on downscaled products, with definition of data types, formats and resolutions, for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation analysis.
· Training of operational departments and local policy makers in South Asia and supporting local/regional policy making by providing user friendly regional downscaling products for South Asia.