11/09/2009
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LTE Spectrum
Strategies and
Forecasts to 2018
webinar
Julian Bright
Senior Analyst, Networks
October 15, 2013
Agenda
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Conclusions
• Introduction
• Spectrum forecasts and methodology
• New LTE bands
• Carrier aggregation
• Conclusions and recommendations
2
Introduction
• Spectrum licensing for 4G continues around the world, opening up new LTE bands and
extending operator choice. Informa has identified 23 frequency bands either in use or
expected to be deployed in LTE networks over the next five years; 17 of these are FDD
bands, and six are TDD bands.
• The number of mobile operators that are launching services in multiple bands is
increasing, as they take the opportunity to use newly available bands to extend LTE
coverage and capacity.
• Momentum continues to gather behind the adoption of Band 3 (1800MHz FDD), driven by
spectrum re-farming, coupled with some new licensing of frequencies in the band and
strong support from several device manufacturers.
• The commercial launch of LTE networks in China, which is expected in the next few
months, will significantly boost the addressable market for TDD, which is centered on
Bands 38-43.
• No single band has yet emerged as the leading candidate for globally harmonized LTE-
frequency adoption.
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LTE subscription growth to 2018
• According to the latest forecast from
Informa Telecoms & Media, the
number of LTE subscriptions worldwide
is expected to be around 1.36 billion by
end-2018. This reflects a slightly higher
rate of growth than was forecast a year
ago, though the degree of change
varies between countries and regions.
• Higher rates of LTE subscription
growth in Asia Pacific’s developed
markets (including Japan and South
Korea), North America and Africa are
offset by slightly slower-than-expected
growth in the Middle East, Latin
America and Europe.
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One major reason for significantly slower growth in Asia Pacific’s developing markets is that commercial LTE services in China have been slower to launch than previously anticipated, slightly reducing the overall impact of China’s LTE subscription growth on the global total.
4
Global, LTE network launches, 2010-2018
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
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Forecast outputs
• Subscription forecasts and LTE
addressable market by
spectrum band and 3GPP
band number
• Forecast network launch dates
by band and band number
• LTE penetration by population
and total subscriptions by
region, country, band and band
number
• Forecast network launch dates
by country and operator
• LTE world maps showing
launch by year and by region,
also summarized in tabular
form
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7
LTE operating bands (FDD)
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Source: 3GPP
Band Band name Downlink
low (MHz)
Downlink
high (MHz)
Uplink
low (MHz)
Uplink
high (MHz)
Bandwidth MHz
1 2.1GHz 2110 2170 1920 1980 60
2 PCS1900 1930 1990 1850 1910 60
3 DCS1800 1805 1880 1710 1785 75
4 AWS 2110 2155 1710 1755 45
5 850MHz 869 894 824 849 25
6 UTRA only 875 885 830 840 10
7 2.6GHz 2620 2690 2500 2570 70
8 900MHz 925 960 880 915 35
9 1700MHz 1844.9 1879.9 1749.9 1784.9 35
10 Extended AWS 2110 2170 1710 1770 60
11 1.5GHz 1475.9 1495.9 1427.9 1447.9 20
12 700MHz Lower A+B+C 729 746 699 716 17
13 700MHz Upper 746 756 777 787 10
14 Public safety 758 768 788 798 10
17 700MHz Lower B+C 734 746 704 716 12
18 Japan 800MHz lower 860 875 815 830 15
19 Japan 800MHz upper 875 890 830 845 15
20 800MHz EDD 791 821 832 862 30
21 1.5GHz upper 1495.9 1510.9 1447.9 1462.9 15
22 3.5GHz 3510 3590 3410 3490 80
23 2GHz S-Band 2180 2200 2000 2020 20
24 L Band 1525 1559 1626.5 1660.5 34
25 PCS1900 + G Block 1930 1995 1850 1915 65
26 800MHz iDEN 859 894 814 849 35
27 850MHz lower 852 869 807 824 17
28 700MHz APAC 758 803 703 748 45
31 LTE 450MHz Brazil 452.5 457.5 462.5 467.5 5
8
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Band Band name Downlink low
(MHz)
Downlink
high (MHz)
Uplink low
(MHz)
Uplink high
(MHz)
Bandwidth (MHz)
33 TDD 2000 1900 1920 20
34 TDD 2000 2010 2025 15
35 TDD 1900 1850 1910 60
36 TDD 1900 1930 1990 60
37 TDD PCS 1910 1930 20
38 TDD 2.6GHz 2570 2620 50
39 China TDD 1.9 GHz 1880 1920 40
40 China TDD 2.3 GHz 2300 2400 100
41 TDD 2.5 GHz 2496 2690 194
42 TDD 3.4 GHz 3400 3600 200
43 TDD 3.6 GHz 3600 3800 200
44 700 MHz APAC 703 803 100
Source: 3GPP
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LTE operating bands (TDD)
Key findings on band adoption
• By 2018, there will be eight major FDD bands or band groups. In order of addressable
market size they will be:
Band 7 (2600MHz); Band 3 (1800MHz); Band 4 (2100MHz AWS);
Band 1 (2100MHz); Bands 12/13/14/17 (700MHz US); Band 20 (800MHz);
Band 28 (700MHz APT); Band 2 (1900MHz).
• Growing support among a number of countries for the Asia Pacific 700MHz band plan
(Band 28), means that, despite being adopted later than many other bands, the
addressable market for this band will grow quickly.
• The major TDD bands will be:
Band 40 (2300MHz); Band 41 (2500MHz); Band 39 (1900MHz);
Band 38 (2600MHz).
• Currently, Band 40 appears likely to be the most widely adopted of the TDD bands, with
operators in India, Saudi Arabia, Australia and a number of countries in Africa all planning
to adopt the TDD frequencies.
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Current and planned 3GPP Band adoption
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Band number Description First used
1 2100FDD Dec-10
2 1900FDD (PCS 1900) Sep-10
3 1800FDD (DCS 1800) Sep-10
4 2100FDD (AWS) Sep-10
5 850FDD Sep-11
7 2600FDD Dec-09
8 900FDD Mar-13
11 1500FDD (1.5GHz lower) Dec-12
12 700FDD (Lower A, B, C) Dec-10
13 700FDD (Upper 700MHz) Dec-10
14 700FDD (Public safety) Dec-13
17 700FDD (Lower B, C) Dec-10
18 800FDD (Japan 800MHz lower) Dec-12
20 800FDD (Digital dividend) Dec-09
26 800FDD (800MHz iDEN) Dec-13
28 700FDD (700MHz APAC) Dec-13
31 450FDD Sep-16
38 2600TDD Dec-11
39 1900TDD (China 1.9GHz) Dec-13
40 2300TDD Sep-11
41 2500TDD Mar-12
42 3400TDD Jun-12
43 3600TDD Jun-12
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Global 2600MHz FDD adoption
Band adoption – Western Europe
11
Global addressable market share 2018,
major bands
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
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Addressable market – methodology
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Maximum subs on Band A
Maximum subs on Band B
Maximum subs on Band C
This gives the addressable market for each band at a certain year
Total country subs
Total forecasted subscriptions for the country at a certain year
13
Global addressable-market growth:
Major FDD bands, 2012-2018
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Global addressable-market growth:
2.6GHz FDD Band 7, 2012-2018
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Growth of the 1800MHz FDD band
Manufacturer Model LTE category LTE Bands supported (MHz)
Apple iPhone 5 3 700/850/1800/1900/2100
HTC One mini 3 800/1800/2600
Huawei Ascend P2 4 800/900/1800/2100
Nokia Lumia 1020 3 800/900/1800/2100/2600
Samsung Galaxy S4 3 700/800/850/1800/2100 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
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Leading smartphones with LTE1800 band support
• Adopted by over 90
operators in 53 countries
• Covering Africa, Asia,
Australasia, Europe, Latin
America and the Middle East
• Major operator groups,
including Vodafone, Orange,
T-Mobile and Hutchison, are
committed to launch LTE at
1800MHz in multiple markets
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The 700MHz US and APT bands
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
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APT 700MHz harmonized-band plan (FDD)
• Widely adopted in US, but there is
a lack of harmonization between
US operators’ LTE deployments in
Bands 12, 13 and 17.
• Rapid uptake of 700MHz APT
band (Band 28) in the forecast
period.
17
• Promising solution to the
challenge of deriving a
globally harmonized
spectrum band for LTE.
• Growing support for the APT
700MHz band (Band 28),
and moves to harmonize the
694-790MHz band range for
ITU Region 1.
TDD band adoption
• China will lead the charge for TD-LTE
adoption, though operators in a
growing number of countries have
committed to using TDD spectrum.
• Band 40 is likely to be the most widely
adopted of the TDD bands, including in
India, Saudi Arabia, Australia and a
number of countries in Africa.
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Global addressable market, major TDD bands
Global addressable market, TDD and FDD
China is making 190MHz of spectrum available in Band 41, the same band that is already being used by SoftBank in Japan, and which will also be used by Clearwire in the US.
18
Total addressable market by TDD bands,
2012-2018
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Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
19
New bands
• 450MHz band:
Recognized by 3GPP and designated as Band 31, it is being used by the Brazilian
government to develop LTE for the provision of rural services in the country
• 2300MHz band:
The FCC is expected to clear use of the 2300MHz FDD Wireless Communications
Services band (2305-2320MHz and 2345-2360MHz) by AT&T, after an accord was
struck to protect satellite-radio services that also use part of the band
• 1400MHz band:
Frequencies in the L-band (in the 1452-1492MHz range), are under consideration for
use to provide a “supplemental” downlink to enhance the capacity of existing paired
frequencies and thus support increased demand
• 3.5GHz TDD
Support is growing for the 3.5GHz band, driven by the entry into the market of
operators such as UK Broadband and by the 3.5GHz Interest Group members,
including operators in Australia, the Middle East, Canada, Latin America and the rest
of Europe
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450MHz (Band 31)
• The technical characteristics of 450MHz allow large geographic areas to be covered at
lower costs. Also supports higher data rates (up to 25Mbps on the downlink and 12.5Mbps
on the uplink), lower latency and better performance.
• Other players in Latin America may also benefit, especially those who operate a 450MHz
CDMA network but do not have access to LTE spectrum. Subject to regulation, they may
have the opportunity to migrate to 4G without needing to wait for the spectrum auction.
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• Provides for 2 x 5 MHz channels of FDD
bandwidth.
• Spectrum auctioned by Anatel in 2012 with
the objective of increasing mobile voice and
data services in rural areas of Brazil.
• Government estimates that about 24 million
people in rural areas will be served.
• Winners must also provide broadband
Internet access free of charge to all rural
public schools. Other potential uses are for
manufacturing, shipping, fleet monitoring. Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
22
Approved LTE Advanced inter-band Carrier
Aggregation, 2Q13
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Description CA type Release Sponsor
Band 1 and Band 8 Inter-band Rel-12 Softbank
Band 2 and Band 13 Inter-band Rel-12 Verizon
Band 3 and Band 19 Inter-band Rel-12 NTT DoCoMo
Band 3 and Band 26 Inter-band Rel-12 KT
Band 19 and Band 21 Inter-band Rel-12 NTT DoCoMo
Band 23 and Band 29 Inter-band Rel-12 Dish Network
Band 2 and Band 17 Inter-band Rel-11 AT&T
Band 3 and Band 8 Inter-band Rel-11 KT
Band 4 and Band 5 Inter-band Rel-11 AT&T
Band 4 and Band 7 Inter-band Rel-11 Rogers
Band 4 and Band 12 Inter-band Rel-11 Leap Wireless/Cox Comms
Band 4 and Band 13 Inter-band Rel-11 Ericsson
Band 4 and Band 17 Inter-band Rel-11 AT&T
Band 5 and Band 12 Inter-band Rel-11 US Cellular
Band 5 and Band 17 Inter-band Rel-11 AT&T
Band 8 and Band 20 Inter-band Rel-11 Vodafone
Band 11 and Band 18 Inter-band Rel-11 KDDI
Sources: 3GPP, Informa Telecoms & Media
25
Conclusions and recommendations
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Conclusions
• The range and number of spectrum bands designated for use with LTE networks continues
to grow, with new frequencies being opened up from the lower sub-1GHz bands to those
above 3GHz.
• Band 3’s popularity continues to grow, driven by its high availability, relatively generous
bandwidth, positive performance characteristics and strong support from device suppliers.
According to the latest forecasts, Band 3 will represent the second-largest addressable
market for LTE globally by 2018, outstripped only by Band 7.
• The TDD bands have not yet made a major impression on the global spectrum map, but
the launch of LTE services based on TD-LTE in major markets, such as China and India,
will begin to have an impact in the coming year.
• The APT 700MHz band (Band 28) is rapidly becoming the preferred choice for
governments, regulators and industry groups in Central and South America, Africa, India
and Southeast Asia, as well as in Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Band 28 is expected
to overtake the US 700MHz bands (Bands 12, 13, 14 and 17) in terms of addressable-
market size by 2018.
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Recommendations (1)
• Band proliferation: The increase in the number of spectrum bands for LTE shows few
signs of slowing. Key concerns for operators when making their band selections must be
the availability of devices, and support for upcoming technical advances such as carrier
aggregation.
• Spectrum re-farming: The growth of Band 3 is evidence that operators are looking at re-
farming options alongside the acquisition of new spectrum for LTE. Other candidate bands
for re-farming should also be considered:
These include Band 1, already re-farmed by NTT DoCoMo for the launch of its Xi LTE
service, and being adopted by operators in China, the Philippines, Thailand, and most
likely in Europe. Regulators in the EU are also being encouraged to open up spectrum
in existing GSM bands, such as 900MHz, for LTE.
• Regionalized band plans: Despite some movement toward a more coordinated approach,
spectrum-band plans are still highly regionalized. Even minor differences in frequency
ranges between similar plans can be significant for aspects such as device support,
making the harmonization between apparently closely-related bands as challenging as for
entirely different ones.
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• LTE roaming: While the work of standards bodies, regulators, governments and industry
groups is directed toward creating the maximum opportunity for new spectrum bands to be
exploited, the industry is also urgently seeking to provide global roaming for LTE.
Given that chipset suppliers and device manufacturers are likely to develop the
technology to support multiple LTE roaming bands, the industry has to work towards
identifying a subset of ‘global’ bands to support roaming services in the future.
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Recommendations (2)
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Thank you!
Julian Bright
Senior Analyst, Networks
Informa Telecoms & Media
Twitter: @julianbright
34