LTE Spectrum Strategies and Forecasts to 2018

11/09/2009

Click to edit Master title

style

Click to edit Master subtitle style

LTE Spectrum

Strategies and

Forecasts to 2018

webinar

Julian Bright

Senior Analyst, Networks

October 15, 2013

Agenda

www.informatandm.com

© Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

Conclusions

• Introduction

• Spectrum forecasts and methodology

• New LTE bands

• Carrier aggregation

• Conclusions and recommendations

2

Introduction

• Spectrum licensing for 4G continues around the world, opening up new LTE bands and

extending operator choice. Informa has identified 23 frequency bands either in use or

expected to be deployed in LTE networks over the next five years; 17 of these are FDD

bands, and six are TDD bands.

• The number of mobile operators that are launching services in multiple bands is

increasing, as they take the opportunity to use newly available bands to extend LTE

coverage and capacity.

• Momentum continues to gather behind the adoption of Band 3 (1800MHz FDD), driven by

spectrum re-farming, coupled with some new licensing of frequencies in the band and

strong support from several device manufacturers.

• The commercial launch of LTE networks in China, which is expected in the next few

months, will significantly boost the addressable market for TDD, which is centered on

Bands 38-43.

• No single band has yet emerged as the leading candidate for globally harmonized LTE-

frequency adoption.



3

LTE subscription growth to 2018

• According to the latest forecast from

Informa Telecoms & Media, the

number of LTE subscriptions worldwide

is expected to be around 1.36 billion by

end-2018. This reflects a slightly higher

rate of growth than was forecast a year

ago, though the degree of change

varies between countries and regions.

• Higher rates of LTE subscription

growth in Asia Pacific’s developed

markets (including Japan and South

Korea), North America and Africa are

offset by slightly slower-than-expected

growth in the Middle East, Latin

America and Europe.



One major reason for significantly slower growth in Asia Pacific’s developing markets is that commercial LTE services in China have been slower to launch than previously anticipated, slightly reducing the overall impact of China’s LTE subscription growth on the global total.

4

Global, LTE network launches, 2010-2018

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media



5

Spectrum forecasts



6

Forecast outputs

• Subscription forecasts and LTE

addressable market by

spectrum band and 3GPP

band number

• Forecast network launch dates

by band and band number

• LTE penetration by population

and total subscriptions by

region, country, band and band

number

• Forecast network launch dates

by country and operator

• LTE world maps showing

launch by year and by region,

also summarized in tabular

form



7

LTE operating bands (FDD)



Source: 3GPP

Band Band name Downlink

low (MHz)

Downlink

high (MHz)

Uplink

low (MHz)

Uplink

high (MHz)

Bandwidth MHz

1 2.1GHz 2110 2170 1920 1980 60

2 PCS1900 1930 1990 1850 1910 60

3 DCS1800 1805 1880 1710 1785 75

4 AWS 2110 2155 1710 1755 45

5 850MHz 869 894 824 849 25

6 UTRA only 875 885 830 840 10

7 2.6GHz 2620 2690 2500 2570 70

8 900MHz 925 960 880 915 35

9 1700MHz 1844.9 1879.9 1749.9 1784.9 35

10 Extended AWS 2110 2170 1710 1770 60

11 1.5GHz 1475.9 1495.9 1427.9 1447.9 20

12 700MHz Lower A+B+C 729 746 699 716 17

13 700MHz Upper 746 756 777 787 10

14 Public safety 758 768 788 798 10

17 700MHz Lower B+C 734 746 704 716 12

18 Japan 800MHz lower 860 875 815 830 15

19 Japan 800MHz upper 875 890 830 845 15

20 800MHz EDD 791 821 832 862 30

21 1.5GHz upper 1495.9 1510.9 1447.9 1462.9 15

22 3.5GHz 3510 3590 3410 3490 80

23 2GHz S-Band 2180 2200 2000 2020 20

24 L Band 1525 1559 1626.5 1660.5 34

25 PCS1900 + G Block 1930 1995 1850 1915 65

26 800MHz iDEN 859 894 814 849 35

27 850MHz lower 852 869 807 824 17

28 700MHz APAC 758 803 703 748 45

31 LTE 450MHz Brazil 452.5 457.5 462.5 467.5 5

8



Band Band name Downlink low

(MHz)

Downlink

high (MHz)

Uplink low

(MHz)

Uplink high

(MHz)

Bandwidth (MHz)

33 TDD 2000 1900 1920 20

34 TDD 2000 2010 2025 15

35 TDD 1900 1850 1910 60

36 TDD 1900 1930 1990 60

37 TDD PCS 1910 1930 20

38 TDD 2.6GHz 2570 2620 50

39 China TDD 1.9 GHz 1880 1920 40

40 China TDD 2.3 GHz 2300 2400 100

41 TDD 2.5 GHz 2496 2690 194

42 TDD 3.4 GHz 3400 3600 200

43 TDD 3.6 GHz 3600 3800 200

44 700 MHz APAC 703 803 100

Source: 3GPP

9

LTE operating bands (TDD)

Key findings on band adoption

• By 2018, there will be eight major FDD bands or band groups. In order of addressable

market size they will be:

Band 7 (2600MHz); Band 3 (1800MHz); Band 4 (2100MHz AWS);

Band 1 (2100MHz); Bands 12/13/14/17 (700MHz US); Band 20 (800MHz);

Band 28 (700MHz APT); Band 2 (1900MHz).

• Growing support among a number of countries for the Asia Pacific 700MHz band plan

(Band 28), means that, despite being adopted later than many other bands, the

addressable market for this band will grow quickly.

• The major TDD bands will be:

Band 40 (2300MHz); Band 41 (2500MHz); Band 39 (1900MHz);

Band 38 (2600MHz).

• Currently, Band 40 appears likely to be the most widely adopted of the TDD bands, with

operators in India, Saudi Arabia, Australia and a number of countries in Africa all planning

to adopt the TDD frequencies.



10

Current and planned 3GPP Band adoption



Band number Description First used

1 2100FDD Dec-10

2 1900FDD (PCS 1900) Sep-10

3 1800FDD (DCS 1800) Sep-10

4 2100FDD (AWS) Sep-10

5 850FDD Sep-11

7 2600FDD Dec-09

8 900FDD Mar-13

11 1500FDD (1.5GHz lower) Dec-12

12 700FDD (Lower A, B, C) Dec-10

13 700FDD (Upper 700MHz) Dec-10

14 700FDD (Public safety) Dec-13

17 700FDD (Lower B, C) Dec-10

18 800FDD (Japan 800MHz lower) Dec-12

20 800FDD (Digital dividend) Dec-09

26 800FDD (800MHz iDEN) Dec-13

28 700FDD (700MHz APAC) Dec-13

31 450FDD Sep-16

38 2600TDD Dec-11

39 1900TDD (China 1.9GHz) Dec-13

40 2300TDD Sep-11

41 2500TDD Mar-12

42 3400TDD Jun-12

43 3600TDD Jun-12


Global 2600MHz FDD adoption

Band adoption – Western Europe

11

Global addressable market share 2018,

major bands




12

Addressable market – methodology



Maximum subs on Band A

Maximum subs on Band B

Maximum subs on Band C

This gives the addressable market for each band at a certain year

Total country subs

Total forecasted subscriptions for the country at a certain year

13

Global addressable-market growth:

Major FDD bands, 2012-2018



14

Global addressable-market growth:

2.6GHz FDD Band 7, 2012-2018



15

Growth of the 1800MHz FDD band

Manufacturer Model LTE category LTE Bands supported (MHz)

Apple iPhone 5 3 700/850/1800/1900/2100

HTC One mini 3 800/1800/2600

Huawei Ascend P2 4 800/900/1800/2100

Nokia Lumia 1020 3 800/900/1800/2100/2600

Samsung Galaxy S4 3 700/800/850/1800/2100 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media




Leading smartphones with LTE1800 band support

• Adopted by over 90

operators in 53 countries

• Covering Africa, Asia,

Australasia, Europe, Latin

America and the Middle East

• Major operator groups,

including Vodafone, Orange,

T-Mobile and Hutchison, are

committed to launch LTE at

1800MHz in multiple markets

16

The 700MHz US and APT bands




APT 700MHz harmonized-band plan (FDD)

• Widely adopted in US, but there is

a lack of harmonization between

US operators’ LTE deployments in

Bands 12, 13 and 17.

• Rapid uptake of 700MHz APT

band (Band 28) in the forecast

period.

17

• Promising solution to the

challenge of deriving a

globally harmonized

spectrum band for LTE.

• Growing support for the APT

700MHz band (Band 28),

and moves to harmonize the

694-790MHz band range for

ITU Region 1.

TDD band adoption

• China will lead the charge for TD-LTE

adoption, though operators in a

growing number of countries have

committed to using TDD spectrum.

• Band 40 is likely to be the most widely

adopted of the TDD bands, including in

India, Saudi Arabia, Australia and a

number of countries in Africa.



Global addressable market, major TDD bands

Global addressable market, TDD and FDD

China is making 190MHz of spectrum available in Band 41, the same band that is already being used by SoftBank in Japan, and which will also be used by Clearwire in the US.

18

Total addressable market by TDD bands,

2012-2018




19

New bands



20

New bands

• 450MHz band:

Recognized by 3GPP and designated as Band 31, it is being used by the Brazilian

government to develop LTE for the provision of rural services in the country

• 2300MHz band:

The FCC is expected to clear use of the 2300MHz FDD Wireless Communications

Services band (2305-2320MHz and 2345-2360MHz) by AT&T, after an accord was

struck to protect satellite-radio services that also use part of the band

• 1400MHz band:

Frequencies in the L-band (in the 1452-1492MHz range), are under consideration for

use to provide a “supplemental” downlink to enhance the capacity of existing paired

frequencies and thus support increased demand

• 3.5GHz TDD

Support is growing for the 3.5GHz band, driven by the entry into the market of

operators such as UK Broadband and by the 3.5GHz Interest Group members,

including operators in Australia, the Middle East, Canada, Latin America and the rest

of Europe



21

450MHz (Band 31)

• The technical characteristics of 450MHz allow large geographic areas to be covered at

lower costs. Also supports higher data rates (up to 25Mbps on the downlink and 12.5Mbps

on the uplink), lower latency and better performance.

• Other players in Latin America may also benefit, especially those who operate a 450MHz

CDMA network but do not have access to LTE spectrum. Subject to regulation, they may

have the opportunity to migrate to 4G without needing to wait for the spectrum auction.



• Provides for 2 x 5 MHz channels of FDD

bandwidth.

• Spectrum auctioned by Anatel in 2012 with

the objective of increasing mobile voice and

data services in rural areas of Brazil.

• Government estimates that about 24 million

people in rural areas will be served.

• Winners must also provide broadband

Internet access free of charge to all rural

public schools. Other potential uses are for

manufacturing, shipping, fleet monitoring. Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

22

Carrier aggregation



23

Carrier aggregation



24

Approved LTE Advanced inter-band Carrier

Aggregation, 2Q13



Description CA type Release Sponsor

Band 1 and Band 8 Inter-band Rel-12 Softbank

Band 2 and Band 13 Inter-band Rel-12 Verizon

Band 3 and Band 19 Inter-band Rel-12 NTT DoCoMo

Band 3 and Band 26 Inter-band Rel-12 KT

Band 19 and Band 21 Inter-band Rel-12 NTT DoCoMo

Band 23 and Band 29 Inter-band Rel-12 Dish Network

Band 2 and Band 17 Inter-band Rel-11 AT&T

Band 3 and Band 8 Inter-band Rel-11 KT


Band 4 and Band 7 Inter-band Rel-11 Rogers

Band 4 and Band 12 Inter-band Rel-11 Leap Wireless/Cox Comms

Band 4 and Band 13 Inter-band Rel-11 Ericsson


Band 5 and Band 12 Inter-band Rel-11 US Cellular


Band 8 and Band 20 Inter-band Rel-11 Vodafone

Band 11 and Band 18 Inter-band Rel-11 KDDI

Sources: 3GPP, Informa Telecoms & Media

25

Conclusions and recommendations



26

Conclusions

• The range and number of spectrum bands designated for use with LTE networks continues

to grow, with new frequencies being opened up from the lower sub-1GHz bands to those

above 3GHz.

• Band 3’s popularity continues to grow, driven by its high availability, relatively generous

bandwidth, positive performance characteristics and strong support from device suppliers.

According to the latest forecasts, Band 3 will represent the second-largest addressable

market for LTE globally by 2018, outstripped only by Band 7.

• The TDD bands have not yet made a major impression on the global spectrum map, but

the launch of LTE services based on TD-LTE in major markets, such as China and India,

will begin to have an impact in the coming year.

• The APT 700MHz band (Band 28) is rapidly becoming the preferred choice for

governments, regulators and industry groups in Central and South America, Africa, India

and Southeast Asia, as well as in Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Band 28 is expected

to overtake the US 700MHz bands (Bands 12, 13, 14 and 17) in terms of addressable-

market size by 2018.



27

Recommendations (1)

• Band proliferation: The increase in the number of spectrum bands for LTE shows few

signs of slowing. Key concerns for operators when making their band selections must be

the availability of devices, and support for upcoming technical advances such as carrier

aggregation.

• Spectrum re-farming: The growth of Band 3 is evidence that operators are looking at re-

farming options alongside the acquisition of new spectrum for LTE. Other candidate bands

for re-farming should also be considered:

These include Band 1, already re-farmed by NTT DoCoMo for the launch of its Xi LTE

service, and being adopted by operators in China, the Philippines, Thailand, and most

likely in Europe. Regulators in the EU are also being encouraged to open up spectrum

in existing GSM bands, such as 900MHz, for LTE.

• Regionalized band plans: Despite some movement toward a more coordinated approach,

spectrum-band plans are still highly regionalized. Even minor differences in frequency

ranges between similar plans can be significant for aspects such as device support,

making the harmonization between apparently closely-related bands as challenging as for

entirely different ones.



28

• LTE roaming: While the work of standards bodies, regulators, governments and industry

groups is directed toward creating the maximum opportunity for new spectrum bands to be

exploited, the industry is also urgently seeking to provide global roaming for LTE.

Given that chipset suppliers and device manufacturers are likely to develop the

technology to support multiple LTE roaming bands, the industry has to work towards

identifying a subset of ‘global’ bands to support roaming services in the future.



29

Recommendations (2)

QUESTIONS?

Our insight helps our clients deliver efficiency, innovation and growth by supporting their

business processes

How we can help

Plan Win business Design and

manage

Business

strategy

Product

strategy

Go-to-

market

• Market sizing and

forecasting

• Opportunity/risk

spotting

• Trend analysis

• Scenario planning

• Competitor and

customer intelligence

Objective

Function

Activity

• Business-case

modeling

• Supplier/partner

selection

• Product

benchmarking

• End-user insight

• Product positioning

• Message construction and

validation

• Sales excellence

• Thought leadership

• Lead generation

• Customer segmentation/

targeting



31

Why choose us?

Connected We are deeply connected to your markets, competitors and customers. Our event communities get us closer to senior-level decision makers.

1

Trusted All our insight is founded on robust data. Our methodologies are transparent, giving clients the confidence to make decisions and act on them.

2

Local We are embedded in the markets you need to understand in order to compete and grow. 3



32

Find out more

LTE Spectrum Strategies and Forecasts to 2018 research

www.informatandm.com/ltespectrum

Intelligence Centre www.informatandm.com

View previous Informa Telecoms & Media webinars here

http://www.informatandm.com/analyst-webinars/

View additional Informa Telecoms & Media white papers here

http://www.informatandm.com/white-papers/

Website www.informatandm.com

E-mail [email protected]

Tel. +44 (0) 20 7017 4994

Twitter @informatm

LinkedIn www.informatm.com/linkedin



33

http://www.informatandm.com/ltespectrum

http://www.informatandm.com/









http://www.informatandm.com/

mailto:[email protected]

https://twitter.com/informatm

http://www.informatm.com/linkedin


The contents of this publication are protected by international copyright laws, database rights

and other intellectual property rights. The owner of these rights is Informa UK Limited, our

affiliates or other third party licensors. All product and company names and logos contained

within or appearing on this publication are the trade marks, service marks or trading names of

their respective owners, including Informa UK Limited. This publication may not be:

(a) copied or reproduced; or

(b) lent, resold, hired out or otherwise circulated in any way or form without the prior

permission of Informa UK Limited.

Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the information and content of this

publication was correct as at the date of first publication, neither Informa UK Limited nor any

person engaged or employed by Informa UK Limited accepts any liability for any errors,

omissions or other inaccuracies.

Readers should independently verify any facts and figures as no liability can be accepted in this

regard - readers assume full responsibility and risk accordingly for their use of such information

and content.

Any views and/or opinions expressed in this publication by individual authors or contributors are

their personal views and/or opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views and/or opinions of

Informa UK Limited.

Thank you!

Julian Bright

Senior Analyst, Networks

Informa Telecoms & Media

[email protected]

Twitter: @julianbright

34

Make better business decisions

Documents

LTE Spectrum Strategies and Forecasts to 2018