1

Initiation and escalation of collective violence:

a comparative observational study of protest and football events

Otto M.J. Adang

Stavern, May 10 – 12, 2009

Systematic and structured observations

• 1986 – 1989 in the Netherlands and during Euro ‘88 (Germany)

• Over 700 observation hours (78 football matches and 139 protest events)

• Focusing on intergroup interactions

• Quantitative analysis

Research questions

• What happens: who uses violence, how many, what type of violence, against whom, under what circumstances, what response?

• What factors influence the initiation and escalation of violence?

Main messages

• Systematic observations of collective violence: it can be done

• The importance of interaction

• Distinguishing between initiation and escalation of collective violence

• The link between theory and practice:– Implications

– examples

Maximum number of violent individuals per bout

01020304050607080

1 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 or over

Number of individuals

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

vio

len

t b

ou

ts Protest (N=138)

Football (N =262)

Triggers for violent initiatives

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

agon

istic

polic

e mea

sure

s

compe

tition

anno

yanc

e

not s

een

no tr

igger

match

even

ts

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

init

iati

ves

Protesters (N=138)

Fans (N=290)

2

Main conclusions

• initiation of violence:– “frictions”

– “young male syndrome”

• escalation of violence:– opportunity/ perception of risk

– ingroup/ outgroup mechanisms

• normal social mechanisms are operating, but influence of alcohol and drugs

Public order management

• need to observe (possible frictions, early signals)

• need to communicate (avoid frictions)• need to build rapport/ relationship (avoid

frictions, increase perception of risk, early signals)

• need to differentiate (avoid us vs them)• need for focused, timely interventions

Practical applications

• Policing protest and unrest in Amsterdam: “peace units” since 1997

• Policing Euro 2000: friendly and firm low profile approach

• Policing football in Arnhem: “From a lot of blue to clever blue” (2003)

• Crowd management of festivities in Nijmegen (2004)

• Policing Euro 2004, WC 2006, Euro 2008

• Police peer reviews (2006)

Incidents (observer data)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

NL/ B 2000 Portugal 2004 NRW 2006

% o

f sa

mp

les

2000: Adang & Cuvelier (2001); 2004 Stott & Adang (2004); 2006: Schreiber & Adang (2007)