Fluorspar in 2013Changing global trade routes and price trends
Simon Moores, Manager, Industrial Minerals Data,
Fluorspar 2013, London
Simon Moores, Manager, Industrial Minerals Data – [email protected]
indmin.com/FluorsparAnalysis
1. Overview – Fluorspar in 2013 2. Existing trade routes and price trends3. The fluorspar highways of the future 4. Other defining factors of 2013
1. Overview – Fluorspar in 2013
The storm is over but the gloom fails to clear…
Acidspar• Demand continues to deteriorate across the
board• As bad if not worse than 2009 • Prices have collapsed from 2011 highs • Prices down 25% on average
Metspar• Global demand sluggish• Demand from China’s steel industry props
up industry & prices • Prices more robust than acidspar
The world in 2013
US government shutdown
Storm in Europe
Smog in China
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
• Trade routes that tells the fluorspar story of 2013
• Price trends from data collected by the new Industrial Minerals Data | Fluorspar
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 1: China to the rest of the world
Situation: A Chinese realignment
• Chinese exports have fallen• China’s export prices = collapsed for both acidspar and metspar• …but metspar imports have increased (Mongolia)
Transport method: Sea freight Delivery terms: FOBProduct traded: Acidspar, Metspar
2012: 25% H1 2013: 18%
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 1: China to the rest of the world
Price trend: Metspar, 85% CaF2, FOB China
35%
October 2013: $230‐250/tonne
January 2013: $355‐375/tonne
Source: IM Data | Fluorspar www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Price trend: Acidspar, 97% CaF2, Wet Filtercake, FOB China
25%
January 2013: $400‐415/tonne
October 2013: $290‐320/tonne
Source: IM Data | Fluorspar www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
Trade route 1: China to the rest of the world
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 2: Mongolia to Russia / China
Transport method: Rail Delivery terms: DAPProduct traded: Metspar, Acidspar
Situation: Supplier to China and
• H1 stronger performance than most countries• Propped up by metspar demand from Chinese steel = up 9% y‐o‐y (June 2013)• H2 slowdown, some fluorspar plants closed• 2013 slower than 2012 (420,000 tpa)
• International prices now the lowest in the market • Mining costs on average lower than China • China happy to increase reliance on Mongolia to preserve its domestic resources
The importance of foreign direct investment in Mongolia
Source: Foreign investment and foreign Trade Agency of Mongolia, KPMG
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Price trend: Acidspar, 95‐97% CaF2, Dry Filtercake, DAP Mongolia to Russia
17%
January 2013: $350‐395/tonne
October 2013: $290‐330/tonne
Source: IM Data | Fluorspar www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
Trade route 2: Mongolia to Russia / China
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Price trend: Metspar, 75% CaF2, DAP, Mongolia to Russia
15%
January 2013: $200/tonne
October 2013: $160‐180/tonne
Source: IM Data | Fluorspar www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
Trade route 2: Mongolia to Russia / China
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
China’s steel production: record highs in 2013
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 3: Product shipped into Europe
Situation: Demand evaporation
Transport method: Sea freight Delivery terms: CIFProduct traded: Acidspar, Metspar
• Acidspar demand from HF very low• Metspar demand very low, steel production has stalled • Steel production declined 9% in 2012 and 3% in 2013 (est)• China up 9% in 2013 y‐o‐y• Is 2013 the bottom of the market?
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Price trend: Acidspar, 97% CaF2, Wet Filtercake, CIF, Rotterdam, Holland
18%
January 2013: $500‐530/tonne
October 2013: $420/tonne
Source: IM Data | Fluorspar www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
Trade route 3: Product shipped into Europe
3. The fluorspar highways of the future
Future trade route 1: Vietnam to the US
Situation: A new significant producer in 2014
• 200,000 tpa of new acidspar supply• Enters international market in 2013• Primarily to the USA• India? China?
Expected transport method: Sea freight Expected delivery terms: FOBProduct traded: Acidspar
3. The fluorspar highways of the future
Future trade route 2: Mongolia to China expansion
Situation: Mongolia rising
• China’s reliance on Mongolia as a low‐cost metspar source will increase• Developing new resources will be key
Expected transport method: Rail Expected delivery terms: DAPProduct traded: Metspar
• Transport infrastructure investment critical – roads, rail lines
• Low cost production will cement long term position
Right: Rio Tinto starts to ship copper concentrated from Gobi Desert, Mongolia, June 2013
3. The fluorspar highways of the future
Future trade route 3: Internal trade routes
Situation: Raw material self‐sufficiency
• Developing captive supplies for countries / consumers• UK & Germany have opened/developing new mines
• UK – re‐opened in Derbyshire• Germany – 2 new acidspar operations in 2014
• 100% reliance on China can no longer be guaranteed• Security in diversity of supply = major issue
Expected transport method: Rail, Truck, BargeExpected delivery terms: DAPProduct traded: Acidspar, Metspar
4. Other defining factors of 2013
• Raw material self sufficiency • Germany
• Increase Acidspar output by 55%• New 30,000 tpa Acidspar
operation by 2014 • UK
• Re‐opening of British Fluorspar mining operation (formerly Glebe Mines/Ineos)
• Global trade slows, imports increase into China
• A switch?• Europe suffering, US only slightly
better, China opportunity• China metspar imports up 25% y‐o‐y
in 2012, H1 2013 up again up 18%
4. Other defining factors of 2013
• Metspar neglected?• Supply replacement needed in China • Most new projects focus on value‐
added Acidspar• Gap in the market for metspar into
China – Mongolia
• Acidspar and metspar price convergence • Price declines across‐the‐board
outlined• Acidspar’s more rapid decline than
metspar, especially in H1 2013• Gap closes between acidspar and
metspar price ($80‐100/tonne)
Shruti Salwan, AnalystLondon [email protected]@ssalwan_indmin
Andy Miller, Junior AnalystLondon [email protected]@amiller_indmin
Albert Li, [email protected]
Recovery delayed until 2014…