Department of Water and Power City of Los Angeles
Electricity OutlookLA Chamber of CommerceEnergy Committee
”Planning to Meet the Challenge”
May 2007
2
Renewable Energy Percentage Trendsas reflected in 2007 POWER CONTENT LABEL
2
or www.energy.ca.gov/consumer.Label, contact the California Energy Commission at 1-800-555-7794
LADWP at 1-800-DIAL-DWP. For general information about the Power ContentFor specific information about this electricity product, contact
for File No. 03-2688 (RPS).**** In accordance with Los Angeles City Council's action on 10-5-04
California consumers during the previous year.Energy Commission based on electricity sold to
*** Percentages are estimated annually by the Californiafrom individual suppliers.
** 100% of LADWP Green Power is specifically purchasedfrom individual suppliers.
* 88% of LADWP Power is specifically purchased 100%100%100%TOTAL0%-<1%Other0%-9%Nuclear33%-29%Natural Gas24%-7%
Large Hydroelectric
38%-47%Coal<1%75%1%-- Wind<1%-<1%-- Solar1%25%6%
-- Small hydroelectric
4%-<1%-- Geothermal<1%-1%-- Biomass & waste5%100%8%
Eligible Renewable****
(for comparison)(projected)(projected)RESOURCESPOWER MIX***Green Power**Power*ENERGY
2005 CALADWPLADWP
2007 POWER CONTENT LABEL
First Quarter
•Eligible Renewable Energy in 2002 ~3%
•Renewable Energy2007 Projections, 8% as noted
•Renewable Energy 2009including Pinetree & UPC Wind ~ 12%
3
LADWP RPS Master Plan
LADWP plans to meet an RPS mandate of 20% by 2010 and the Mayor announced last week a new 35% RPS by 2020 and 35% GHG reduction by 2030
Eight general areas that make up the Master Plan
– Existing resources – Consisting of Aqueduct, Hyperion digestion, Lopez microturbines, solar rooftops, landfill gas contracts, Wyoming Wind project, and purchases
– Planned resources – Consisting of Pine Tree Wind Project, Powerex Small Hydro, and the ongoing solar rooftops program
– 2004 LADWP RFP – Resource acquisition consisting of originally seven projects
– 2005 SCPPA RFP – Resource acquisition consisting of seven projects
– 2006 SCPPA RFP – Resource acquisition consisting of twenty-eight projects.
– LADWP 2007 RFP – Resource development on LADWP owned properties or near LADWP transmission system issued RFP on January 30, 2007.
– Transmission Developments – Consisting of the Pine Tree Transmission Line, new Tehachapi Transmission System, Green Path Project, and Southern Transmission System upgrade
DSM Assumptions – Use the Maximum Achievable Level
44
2007 DWP RFP Projects,after preliminary screening
ResourceType
TotalTotalGWH
ENERGY
% of
Total
Biomass 1 50 1.2%
Geothermal 3 1400 32.5%
Solar 3 1535 35.6%
Wind 3 1325 30.7%
Total 10 4,315
Inside CA Outside CA
3050 126570% 30%
Preliminary Update
DWP RFP review on-going, preliminary results noted
Further analyzing & evaluating proposals
5
MAP 1SOLAR RESOURCE
MAP 4
MAP 3
MAP 2
6
MOJAVE
ADELANTO SWITCHING STATION
BARREN RIDGE SWITCHING STATION (PROPOSED)
INYO
-RIN
ALD
ITR
ANSM
ISSI
ON
LI
NE
HARPERDRY LAKEKRAMER
JUNCTION
MAP 3HIGH DESERT
77
Location of Proposed Renewable Energy Projects and LADWP Transmission
7
WindBiomassSolarGeothermal
Small Hydro
INYO
-R
INA
LDI
STS
COB / NOB
SP-15McCULLOUG
H-VICTORVILLE
GREEN PATH
•SCPPA6 / Solar•LADWP5 / Wind•Potential Solar and Wind
•SCPPA4 / Wind•Potential Solar•Potential Geothermal
•Solar Rooftops•BoS Waste Conversion•Small Hydro
•Potential Solar•LADWP3•Pine Tree
•Powerex•Potential Wind
•Potential Wind•PPM SW WY
•SCPPA3 / Wind
Projected RPS by Energy Type (GWh)
10%11%
32%17%
26%4%
Small HydroBiomass/MSWWindSolar Geothermalpurchases
8
2010Technology PPA/Own COD MW GWh %DWP Sales Source
ExistingSmall Hydro Small Hydro Own In service 166 670 2.8% ExistingHyperion Digester Gas Biomass Digester Own In service 22 143 0.6% ExistingLopez Microturbine Biomass Landfill Gas Own In service 2 5 0.0% ExistingCalifornia System Purch Various Types PPA In service 0 100 0.4% ExistingWM Bradley Biomass Landfill Gas PPA In service 6 36 0.2% ExistingSCS Penrose Biomass Landfill Gas PPA In service 6 45 0.2% ExistingShort-term Market Purchases Various Types PPA In service 0 266 1.1% ExistingSolar Rooftop Program Solar Photovoltaics Own In service 10 18 0.1% ExistingPPM SW Wyoming Wind PPA In service 82 230 0.9% 2005 SCPPA RFPPowerex - BC Hydro Small Hydro PPA In service 50 430 1.8% 2004 DWP RFP
344 1,944 8.0%Transmission LineSP15Solar Rooftop SB1 goal Solar Photovoltaics Own 12/31/17 270 405 1.7% DWP owned REC's?Water System Hydro Small Hydro Own 12/1/10 5 30 0.1% DWP ProjectsTerminal Island Fuel Cell Biomass Digester Gas Own 12/1/07 1 8 0.0% DWP/City of LATI Renewable Energy (TIRE) Biomass Digester Gas Own 7/1/12 4 25 0.1% DWP/City of LARenewLA-1,2,3,4 Waste to Energy Own 2010-2013 100 800 3.3% City of LABiomass Proposal Biomass Landfill Gas PPA 12/31/07 7 50 0.2% 2007 DWP RFPSmall Hydro Small Hydro PPA 11/1/08 8 42 0.2% 2006 SCPPA RFP Total SP15 395 1,360 5.6%
McCullough-VictorvilleSCPPA6 Solar Trough PPA 6/1/10 80 240 1.0% 2005 SCPPA RFPConcentrated Solar Solar Own 12/1/10 50 130 0.5% 2007 JDG RFISCPPA 13 Wind Own 12/31/10 100 304 1.3% 2006 SCPPA RFP Total McCullough-Victorville 230 674 2.8%
LADWP RPS Master Project List
9
Inyo-RinaldiPine Tree Wind Wind Own 7/1/09 120 340 1.4% 2001 DWP RFPLADWP3 Wind PPA/Own 7/1/09 150 500 2.1% 2004 DWP RFPAqueduct PP Improvements Hydro Own 4/1/12 4 30 0.1% Operational UpgradesWind Proposal Wind PPA/Own 6/30/09 150 400 1.7% 2007 DWP RFPConcentrated Solar - Phase 1 Solar PPA/Own 12/31/10 100 265 1.1% 2007 DWP RFPConcentrated Solar - Phase 2 Solar PPA/Own 12/31/11 100 265 1.1% 2007 DWP RFPConcentrated Solar - Phase 3 Solar PPA/Own 12/31/12 100 265 1.1% 2007 DWP RFPConcentrated Solar Solar PPA/Own 12/31/11 250 580 2.4% 2007 DWP RFP Total Inyo-Rinaldi 974 2,645 10.9%
STSSCPPA3 / UPC Wind PPA/Own 3/31/09 185 460 1.9% 2005 SCPPA RFPWind Proposal Wind PPA/Own 6/30/10 100 250 1.0% 2006 SCPPA RFPGeothermal Proposal Geothermal PPA/Own 3/31/10 40 340 1.4% 2007 DWP RFPWind Proposal Wind PPA/Own 12/31/10 300 750 3.1% 2007 DWP RFP Total STS 625 1,800 7.4%
COB/NOBSCPPA 2 Phase 1 Wind Own 12/31/08 55 150 0.6% 2006 SCPPA RFPSCPPA 2 Phase 2 Wind Own 12/31/09 100 280 1.2% 2006 SCPPA RFPWind Proposal Wind PPA/Own 12/31/10 60 175 0.7% 2007 DWP RFPGeothermal Proposal Geothermal PPA/Own 6/30/10 35 265 1.1% 2007 DWP RFP Total COB/NOB 250 870 3.6%
Green PathSCPPA4 Wind PPA/Own 12/1/10 65 220 0.9% 2005 SCPPA RFPSolar Proposal Solar PPA/Own 12/31/10 80 160 0.7% 2007 DWP RFPGeothermal Geothermal Owned Jt. 5/30/11 100 800 3.3% SCPPA/IID/DWPSalton Sea Geothermal Geothermal Own 12/1/12 100 800 3.3% 2007 DWP RFP Total Green Path 345 1,980 8.2%
Grand Total 3,163 11,273 46.6%
Percentages expected by 2010 Percentage potential by 20138.0% Already providing renewable resource 8.0%6.5% High likelihood of providing the specified amount of renewable resources 11.7%0.9% Marginal likelihood of providing the specified amount of renewable resources 0.9%4.2% Projects from 2006 SCPPA RFP meeting initial screen 7.5%9.4% 2007 DWP Renewable Energy RFP (preliminary) and JDG 2007 RFI 18.4%
29.1% 46.6%
10
Inyo - Rinaldi Line Upgrade Project
OWENS GORGE
COTTONWOOD
BARREN RIDGE
RINALDI
9 miles
81 miles
68 miles
76 miles
234 miles
INYO
SCE
CASTAIC
SYLMAR
NORTHRIDGE
71.6 miles
1. Reconductor Barren Ridge to Rinaldi w/ 1113 ACSS.
2. New line from Barren Ridge to Castaic w/ 1113ACSS.
OLIVE
500MW WTG
Pine Tree120 MW2007 COD
Wind 3100+ MW2009 COD
Wind 2150+ MW2008 COD
Barren Ridge
Pine Tree
Wind # 3 Substation
To Cottonwood/Inyo
To Rinaldi
To Castaic
1111
STS Background Information
Major STS Components
– Intermountain Converter Station– HVDC Transmission Line – Adelanto Converter Station – Adelanto Switching Station
Transmission System
– 488 Mile +/-500 kV DC Transmission Line
– Transmission Capacity – 1920 MW
– Transmission entitlement shares based on generation shares
– California Unit 1 & 2 Purchasers are able to use unused STS capacity
1212
(2)
(7)
(4)
GREEN PATH
13
Potential Impediments
•Uncertainty in Tax Credits or availability of Clean Renewable Energy Bonds
•CEQA completion prior to Governing Authority approval of Contract
•Manufacturing constraints – wind turbines & solar tubes and glass
•Intermittent nature of wind & solar requires cautious integration into grid, more costly regulation
•California environmental process for new projects is lengthy, 12 to 24 months and appears to promote development out of state
•Renewables aren’t perfect – impacts to birds, bats, visual blight, aviation - FAA & military aircraft, noise, tourism & recreation, etc.
•Lack of trained labor pool to operate and maintain renewable facilities
•Environmental Justice issues and NIMBY lawsuits in urban settings – MSW, landfill, biomass, etc.
14
PRESENT LADWP SOLAR PROGRAM INCENTIVE PAYMENTS
14
LADWP Solar PV Incentive Program Budget and Projected Reservations and Expenses
$-$2,000,000$4,000,000$6,000,000$8,000,000
$10,000,000$12,000,000
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7Date
Am
ount
$ Amount ReservedAmount PaidBudget
15
RECOMMENDED PROGRAM CHANGES NEEDED BY JANUARY 1, 2008
15
Proposed Incentive Rates for Step 1
*$/Wptc installed values assume a PV system under nearly ideal conditions. i.e. 95% eff. Inverter, 1% shading, 34 deg tilt. Less than ideal systems will receive lower incentive amounts. W-AC CEC =Wptc x 0.95
Customer Type Base Incentive Rate
($/kWh)
Base Incentive
Approximate* ($/Wptc)
Base Incentive
Approximate* ($/W-AC CEC)
LAMC or BIPV Supplement
($/kWh)
Maximum Incentive Rate
($/kWh)
Commercial $0.11 $3.40 $3.60 $0.01 $0.12 Govt. & Non-Profit $0.14 $4.30 $4.50 $0.02 $0.16
Residential $0.14 $4.30 $4.50 $0.02 $0.16
16
OVERALL SUMMARY:
FY 07-08 Energy Efficiency Work Program
Program
FY07-08 Budget
($1,000s)
Full Time Equivalent
Staff
Peak Energy Reduction
(MW)
Annual Energy Savings (GWh)
Lifetime Energy Savings (GWh)
Total Resource Cost
(TRC)
Program Adminstrator Cost (PAC)
LADWP $/kWh
LADWP $/kW
Residential Programs Refrigerator Recycling Program 866.90$ 0.50 1.13 7.3 43.8 1.45 2.42 0.020$ 771$ CFL Distribution Program 5,489.00$ 2.00 7.00 39.0 351.0 3.12 3.12 0.016$ 784$ Consumer Appliance Rebate Program 2,304.50$ 7.50 0.46 1.2 19.4 0.32 0.42 0.119$ 4,973$ Low-Income Refrigerator Program 25,559.60$ 2.50 6.14 37.5 675.6 0.64 0.64 0.038$ 4,162$ Point of Sale (CRP) 2,959.30$ 1.00 1.09 3.5 58.6 0.50 0.97 0.051$ 2,704$ CFL Buydown Program 3,320.60$ 2.00 8.40 46.8 421.2 5.56 6.19 0.008$ 395$ Subtotal Residential Programs 40,499.90$ 15.50 24.22 135.4 1,569.6 0.026$ 1,672$
Non-Residential Programs Commercial Lighting Efficiency Offer 7,152.60$ 7.00 10.16 67.6 775.8 1.91 7.17 0.009$ 704$ Chiller Efficiency Program 2,888.90$ 3.00 1.54 3.7 73.9 1.13 1.14 0.039$ 1,878$ Thermal Energy Storage Program 551.40$ 0.50 0.83 0.0 1.1 0.44 1.01 0.490$ 662$ Refrigeration Program 1,457.20$ 1.50 1.39 11.2 132.1 3.46 4.21 0.011$ 1,047$ Custom Performance-Based Efficiency 2,649.20$ 4.00 2.44 12.3 183.8 1.46 3.43 0.014$ 1,087$ Small Business Direct Install 10,095.40$ 0.75 4.95 30.3 274.4 1.22 1.22 0.037$ 2,040$ New Construction/LEED Incentive 2,553.80$ 3.50 0.56 3.6 71.1 0.81 0.97 0.036$ 4,571$ DSM Bid Program 1,001.50$ 0.50 0.39 2.3 34.3 1.71 2.47 0.029$ 2,555$ Retro-Commissioning 1,080.40$ 0.75 3.03 9.1 90.9 2.22 4.25 0.012$ 357$ Subtotal Non-Residential Programs 29,430.40$ 21.50 25.29 140.0 1,637.4 0.018$ 1,164$
General Program Support Program Administration 2,183.90$ 6.00 Residential Audits and Workshops 481.40$ 0.50 Commercial Audits 969.30$ 6.00 Technical Assistance & Education 1,701.40$ 5.00Subtotal General Program Support 5,336.00$ 17.50
TOTAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAM 75,266.30$ 55 50 275 3,207 0.023$ 1,520$ Program Administrator Cost Test compares NPV of all avoided cost benefits relative to LADWP program costs.
Total Resource Cost Test compares NPV of all avoided cost benefits relative to LADWP and customer costs.
17
Historic and Projected Energy Savings:
FY 07-08 Energy Efficiency Work Program
LADWP Energy Efficiency Achievementsand Projections (Annual GWH)
65.0
164.2
52.3 34.5 37.016.6
80.0
275.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08Fiscal Year
Ann
ual S
avin
gs
Inst
alle
d (G
WH
)
FY06-07 is projected based on data to date.FY07-08 is proposed budgeted.
18
LADWP ENERGY EFFICIENCYHistoric Expenditures and Projected Budgets
$10.9 $11.3 $12.1
$19.1
$15.0
$11.0 $9.9$7.7
$28.2
$75.2
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
$ m
illio
ns
Note: FY01-02 does not include State funding during energy crisis.
FY 07-08 Energy Efficiency Work Program
19
FY06-07 Budget & Goals:
– Anticipate 50 MW of peak reduction and 275 GWh of annual energy savings.
– Overall cost effectiveness is $0.02/kwh.
– Eliminates the emission of nearly 200,000 tons of CO2 annually and more than 2 million tons over the life of the measures.
– Core programs are: Commercial Lighting, CFLs, and Low Income Refrigerators
– Other significant programs include Refrigeration, Custom Performance, Small Business Direct Install, Retro-Commissioning, and Chillers.
FY06-07 EE Budget by Program
Low Income Refrigerator Exchange CFL Distribution Sm Bus Direct Install Commercial Lighting Efficiency Offer Chiller Efficiency Program CFL Buydown Custom Performance New Construction/LEED Consumer Appliance Refrigeration Program Retrocommissioning DSM Bid
Low Income Refrigerator Exchange
CFL Distribution
Commercial Lighting
Sm. Bus. Direct Install
FY 07-08 Energy Efficiency Work Program