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DeforestationDriver
Analysis
toAssist
with
Project
Baselines
and
LeakageCalculations
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Eslainteraccindefactoresespacializablesynoespacializables
de forma directa e indirecta que permiten describir los
procesosde
deforestacin
actual
yfutura
en
un
rea
especfica
(FDN,2010).
An
Avoided
Deforestation
project
must
incorporate
these
conceptsintoitsbaselineinordertodefineit.
MexicosNational
Deforestation
Risk
Model
addressed
many
of
these issuesandtheCARWorkgroup isconsideringhow itcan
be used to develop a standardized baseline for Avoided
DeforestationProjects. Thiswillrequireadditionalsteps.
WhatisasystemofDeforestationandhowdoes
theunderstandingofthesysteminfluencea
projectbaseline
?
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INEsDeforestationRiskModel
designed
to
produce
estimates
at
anationallevel
Useofthemodelatthelocal
(project)level
will
require
a
soundanalysisofwhichlocal
spatialvariablesareneeded
?
Modelof
DeforestationRisk
ResultsofModelat
Project
Scale
NeedforDeforestation
DriverAnalysis
NeedforAnalysisofDeforestationDrivers
atLocalizedAreatocalibratedeforestation
modelandimproveleakageestimates
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Step1
IdentifyAllPossibleDriversof
DeforestationinMexico
DevelopinganADProjectBaselineandAssigningLeakageValues
Sector NameofDriver
Agricultural
expansion
Traditionalshiftingcultivation
Shiftingcultivationbycolonists
Permanentsubsistencecultivation
Permanentcommercialcultivation(palm,avocado,rubber,...)
Permanentcultivation
for
agricultural
rural
development
projects
Smallholdercattleranching
Largescalecattleranching
Spontaneoustransmigration
Localtransmigration(resettlement)
Wood
extraction
Staterunwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Growth
coalition
led
wood
extraction
(clearcutting,
selective
harvesting)Illegal(illicit,undeclared)woodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Fuelwoodextractionfordomesticuse
Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse
Polewoodextractionfordomesticuse
Polewoodextractionforindustrialuse
Charcoalproductionfordomesticuse
Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse
Infrastructure
extension
Expansionoftransportinfrastructure
Expansionofmarketinfrastructure(foodmarkets,storage,etc.)
Expansionofprivateinfrastructure(sawmills,foodmarkets,etc.)
Expansionofpublicservices(e.g.,water&sanitationfacilities)
(Semi)urbansettlementexpansion
Ruralsettlementexpansion
Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages
Privateenterpriseinfrastructure
hydropowerdevelopment
Examples
Step1a:IdentifyandDescribe
RelationshipsandSequences
Step1b:Developasurvey
methodologytoidentifyhow
thesedrivers
can
be
identified
withindefinedgeographicareas
(states/projectsforexample)
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Step2
DefinetheGeographicBoundaryinWhich
theProjectOperates
Thegeographicboundaryformsthecontextfordefiningthe
projectsbaseline
and
leakage
monitoring.
Forsimplicity,thiscouldbeacoincidentwithstate
boundariesduetojurisdictionalissues. However,maybe
combinedstateswhereecosystems,economies,forestpolicies,
andhighriskofleakageareshared.
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Step3
UsingtheProductofStep1,Identifythe
SuiteofDeforestationDriversWithinDefined
BoundarySector NameofDriver
Agricultural
expansion
Traditionalshiftingcultivation
Shiftingcultivationbycolonists
Permanentsubsistencecultivation
Permanentcommercial
cultivation
(palm,
avocado,
rubber,...)
Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopmentprojects
Smallholdercattleranching
Largescalecattleranching
Spontaneoustransmigration
Localtransmigration(resettlement)
Wood
extraction
Staterunwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Commercialwood
extraction
(clearcutting,
selective
harvesting)
Growthcoalitionledwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Illegal(illicit,undeclared)woodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Fuelwoodextractionfordomesticuse
Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse
Polewoodextractionfordomesticuse
Polewoodextraction
for
industrial
use
Charcoalproductionfordomesticuse
Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse
Infrastructure
extension
Expansionoftransportinfrastructure
Expansionofmarketinfrastructure(foodmarkets,storage,etc.)
Expansionofprivateinfrastructure(sawmills,foodmarkets,etc.)
Expansionofpublicservices(e.g.,water&sanitationfacilities)
(Semi
)urban
settlement
expansionRuralsettlementexpansion
Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages
Privateenterpriseinfrastructurehydropowerdevelopment
Examples
Sector Name
of
Driver
Agricultural
expansion
Traditionalshiftingcultivation
Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopmentprojects
Spontaneoustransmigration
Localtransmigration(resettlement)
Wood
extraction
Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse
Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse
Infrastructure
extension Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages
DeforestationDrivers
WithinJurisdictionX
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Step4
Identify/DevelopDatatoQuantifythe
RelativeContributionofEachofthePotential
DriversWithin
the
Jurisdiction
Ifnodataexists,asurveymustbedevelopedand
implementedto
quantify
the
contributions
Sector Name
of
Driver Available
Data
(example)
Agricultural
expansion
Traditionalshiftingcultivation FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008
Permanentcultivation
for
agricultural
rural
development
projects FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008
Spontaneoustransmigration CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008
Localtransmigration(resettlement) CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2009
Woodextraction
Commercialwood
extraction
(clearcutting,
selective
harvesting) FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008
Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008
Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008
Infrastructure
extension Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008
Example
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Step5
QuantifytheRelativeContributionofEach
ofthePotentialDriversWithintheJurisdiction
Performcausalanalysisofdeforestationdrivers:
To
assist
in
identifying
deforestation
sequencing
Sector Name
of
Driver
RelativeContributionofDrivertoArea
Deforested
Agricultural
expansion
Traditionalshifting
cultivation 5%
Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopment
projects 5%
Spontaneoustransmigration 15%
Localtransmigration(resettlement) 45%
Woodextraction
Commercialwood
extraction
(clearcutting,
selective
harvesting) 20%
Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse 3%
Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse 2%
Infrastructure
extensionExpansionofmilitarydefensevillages 5%
Example
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Step5
QuantifytheRelativeContributionofEach
ofthePotentialDriversWithintheJurisdiction
Performcausalanalysisofdeforestationdrivers:Toassistinidentifyingrelationshipsofdriversandsequencing
Describeeach
driver
in
terms
of:
Whoisdoingthedeforestation.
Whytheyaredoingthedeforestation.
Wherearetheydoingthedeforestation.
Forwhomaretheydoingthe
deforestation.
Spatialscaleofdriver.
Directandindirectimpactsofdriver.
Potentialfor
leakage.
Prevention/mitigationopportunitiesfor
driver.
Identifytheleakagepotentialofeachdriver
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Step6
AnalyzetheSpatialRestrictionsand
MobilityofEachoftheDrivers
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Step7
IdentifyHowtheProjectAddresses
DeforestationDrivers
Combinedwiththeleakageanalysis,aleakageriskforeach
projectcanbeassigned.
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Step8 WithSpatialDriversIdentified,Local
VariablescanbeUsedtoCalibrateINEs
DeforestationRisk
Within
the
Geographic
BoundaryandExtrapolatedtotheProjectLevelas
aPredictor
of
Deforestation
Rates
Into
the
Future