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Mitigation Potential and Value of Addressing Agriculture as a Driver of Deforestation. Sirintornthep Towprayoon Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment and Earth System Science Research Center. King Mongkut's University of Thonburi. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Mitigation Potential and Value of Addressing Agriculture as a Driver of Deforestation
Sirintornthep Towprayoon
Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment and Earth System Science Research Center. King Mongkut's University of Thonburi
Presentation in the workshop of Building REDD-plus Policy Capacity for Developing Country Negotiators and Land Managers 18-20 May 2011 Hanoi Veitnam
Outline
• Agriculture as the driver of deforestation• Are agricultural mitigation options drivers of
deforestation?• Values and costs of agricultural mitigation• Agricultural mitigation as the complement to
deforestation
Developing countries Developed countries
World
Change of agricultural land from 1961–2002
Type of area change (Mha)
Source : Data derived from FAO and AR4
FRA 2010
Annual change in forest by region, 1990–2010 Change of agricultural land from 1961–2002
IPCC AR4
Driver to deforestation
Deforestation
Crop priceTechnology
PovertyPopu
latio
n gr
owth
Forest fire
Soil
degradation
Agriculture
Are agricultural mitigation options driver to deforestation?
Culture
Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector
• Livestock management– Improve feedings practice, dietary additive
• Manure management– Improve storage and handling, AD, efficient use of
nutrient source
• Direct mitigation : Emission Reduction • Indirect mitigation : Avoid CO2 emission
Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector (cont)
• Cropland management – Nutrient management– Tillage/residue management– Water management– Rice management– Agroforestry
• Restoration of degraded land– Organic amendment– Nutrient amendment
Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector (cont)
• Biofuel/bioenergy – Biochar– Energy crop :
• Sugarcane to bioethanol, • Oil palm to biodiesel
Examples of mitigation technology• Cropland: nutrient management
Nutrient management
Reduction efficiency (%)
Source
Nitrification (Nitrification inhibitor)
38% Akiyama et al., 2009
Polymer-coated fertilizers
35% Akiyama et al., 2009
Dicyandiamide ( Nitrification inhibitor)
20–30% Hadi et al., 2008
Site-specific nutrient management
20% Tassanee et al
Co-fertilizer of organic and chemical
46% Zheng et al., 2000
Source: Pongthep and Amnat 2010
Examples of mitigation technology
• Cropland: rice field – Water management 30–40% reduction– SRI (system rice intensification) approx 37%
reduction– AWDI (alternative wet /dry irrigation) approx 70%
reduction– Inhibitor 20–60% reduction
Source : Tassanee and Sirintornthep 2010
Values and cost of agricultural mitigation
IPCC AR4 WGIII SPM
Abatement cost in rice field: Case of Thailand $10–60 per tonne of CO2e
2020 Cost Curve
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
- 2 4 6 8 10
CO2 Avoided(Millions TCO2e)
Cost
($/
T CO
2e)
2050 Cost Curve
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
- 2 4 6 8 10
CO2 Avoided(Millions TCO2e)
Cost
($
/T C
O2e
)
1 water drainage2 shift fertilizer3 combination of 1 and 2
1
23 3
2
1
Wassman et al 2007
Marginal abatement cost curves for 3rd
Baseline technology: continuous flooding ,Mixed FYM/urea: straw burning
10-60 US$ /tCe
Abatement cost curve in agriculture sector of Indonesia
Value /Co-benefit
• Sustainable agriculture• Culture and way of life• Income • Environmental benefit
Agricultural mitigation as the complement to deforestation
deforestation
Crop priceLimited land expansion
Food and fuel crop competition
-Full utilization of cropland – crop rotation-Improve crop yield
Poverty alleviation
Crop rotation as the alternative systems for sustainable agriculture
Rice-crop-rice
RI plot
wet sowing 25 DAS
40 DAS 115 DAS
130 DAS 140 DAS, harvest
RS plot
22 DAT 37 DAT
60 DAT 90 DAT
115 DAT, harvest105 DAT
Yield from food and fuel rotation crop • Agricultural area of
Thailand 130.34 M Rai
• Area of rain-fed rice field (2010) 57.50 M rai rice yield 23.25 M tonnes
• Area of irrigated rice field (2010) 15.22 M rai rice yield 8.86 M tonnes
• Sweet sorghum• Cultivation time 90-100 days• Yield 5-7 tonnes per Rai• Syrup from stem 2500-3500
litre per rai• Bioethanol 350-420 litre per
Rai
Source: Stephen A. Goff and John M. Salmeron, 2004.
Yield improvement
Direction of GMO research and biotechnology
05101520253035404550
Sugarcane Cassava Oil Palm
Yield (ton per rai)
Highest potential using genetic research
Potential of genetic study in Thailand
Current yield
Potential of genetic improvement of energy crops
Management and technology
Plant breeding/plant development
Investment cost of ethanol production (USD/L)
SOurce : Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops :2007
0.20
0.26
0.30
0.30
0.32
0.68
0.71
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
บราซิ ล (อ้อย)
ออสเตรเลีย (กากน้ำ�า ตาล)
ไ ทย (อ้อย)
อินเดีย (กากน้ำ�า ตาล)
สหรัฐอเมริกา (ข้าวโพด)
อียู -25 (ข้าวสาลี)
อียู -25 (บีท รูท )EU-25 (Beetroot)
EU-25 (Wheat)
USA (corn)
India (Molasses)
Thailand ( Sugarcane)
Australia (Molasses)
Brazil (Sugarcane)
Food Fuel and Forest
deforestation
Crop price Limited land expansion
Food and fuel crop competition
-Full utilization of cropland—crop rotation-Improve crop yield
Poverty alleviation
Policies and
incentives
Messages
• Sustainable agriculture and agricultural mitigation can be complementary to deforestation
• Full utilization of cropland with co-benefits for farmers
• Food security can not be addressed without yield improvement.
• Policies and incentives are key issue to ensure sustainable agriculture towards negative drivers of deforestation
Acknowledgement
• Thailand Research Fund and Energy and Policy Planning Office for Data from Energy Policy Project Phase II
• Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization
Thank you for your attention
www.jgsee.kmutt.ac.th