COSMO Annual Meeting 2005
20-23 September 2005
Zurich (Switzerland)
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Programme
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 2
The Network of ConsortiaHIRLAMDenmark*, Finland*, Iceland*, Ireland*,Netherlands*, Norway*, Spain*, Sweden*
COSMOGermany*, Greece*, Italy*, Poland (Warsaw Branch), Romania, Switzerland*
ALADINAustria*, Belgium*, France*, Portugal*,Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary*,Moldova, Poland (Cracow Branch), Romania,Slovakia, SloveniaALADIN – LACEAustria*, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary*,Slovakia, Slovenia
UKMOUnited Kingdom*
26 NWS are Members of the SRNWP Programme * EUMETNET Member
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 3
SRNWP actions in progress
• SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe
• Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations
• Model comparison
• New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 4
SRNWP actions in progress
• SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe
• Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations
• Model comparison
• New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 5
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 6
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 7
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 8
SRNWP actions in progress
• SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe
• Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations
• Model comparison
• New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 9
Motivations
• The spatial density of the SYNOP precipitations is absolutely inadequate for the validation and verification of the very high resolution models
• Creation of a “data hub for the precipitation observations” as already done by EUMETNET at the Met Office for the radar and wind-profiler data (“one stop chop” strategy)
• In the future - still a lot of development work to do – high resolution precipitation data will also be used in the data assimilation process
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 10
Situation today in Europe
Who is collecting today in Europe 24-hourly accumulated high-resolution precipitationobservations?
DWD (for Consortium COSMO)ECMWF (data from the Members)EU Project ENSEMBLESEUROGRID show-case (non yet accepted)
Report in the SRNWP web site.
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 11
Candidates
Two very good candidates:
= DWD- Does already this work but for COSMO
Members only
= ECMWF- Receives the data from all the Members and
associated Members and makes gridded analyses
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 12
SRNWP actions in progress
• SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe
• Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations
• Model comparison
• New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 13
Reason
• At least 3 times – in Council or ICWED Meetings – our Directors have expressed the wish of a model comparison over Europe.
• It has to be cheap. Thus only main models will be compared:
- LM (run by the DWD)- Aladin-France- HIRLAM (reference version at FMI)- UM (North-Atlantic / Europe version)
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 14
Facts
• Already today the Met Office compares daily the precipitations of these 4 models over Great-Britain (24-hourly accumulated)
• The Met Office has been chosen for this comparison as the work will consist for him of an extension of an already existing task: several of its tools will be used directly
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 15
Plan
• Verified will be from T+0 to T+48 at 6h intervals:- precipitations
- mean sea level pressure- 2m temperature- 10m wind
• Scores for precipitations:
- frequency bias
- equitable threat score
- log-odds ratio
- Hansen-Kuipers skill score
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 16
Results and Costs
• Results
Monthly mean statistics will be calculated and published on the Met Office external internet site under password protection
• Costs
The costs that will be submitted to the EUMETNET Council will amount to the salary of a scientist for 9 months per year
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 17
SRNWP actions in progress
• SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe
• Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations
• Model comparison
• New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 18
The SRNWP Workshops
• Variational Methods (Met Office)
• Nonhydrostatic Modeling (DWD)
• Numerical Techniques (Meteo-France)
• Soil data analysis and soil processes (INM/SMHI)
• Statistical and Physical Adaptation (ZAMG)
• Meso-scale verification (KNMI)
• Short-range EPS (UGM)
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 19
The 2004 SRNWP Workshops
SRNWP Workshop on Mesoscale Verification14-15 June 2004, KNMI, De Bilt40 participants
HIRLAM/SRNWP Workshop on Soil Analysis and Soil Processes15-17 September 2004, SMHI, Norrköping30 participants
SRNWP / Met Office / HIRLAM Workshop on Variational MethodsHigh resolution data assimilation: towards 1-4km resolution 15-17 November 2004, Met Office, Exeter. 80 participants
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 20
The 2005 SRNWP Workshops
SRNWP Workshop on Short-Range EPS7-8 April 2005, UGM / ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna80 participants
SRNWP Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical Application1-2 June 2005, ZAMG, Vienna25 participants
SRNWP Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Modelling"Convection resolving models"31 Oct – 02 Nov 2005, DWD, Bad Orb(Probably 70-80 participants)
COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20-23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 21
Long life to COSMOwith a lot of success!