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COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project. C. Marsigli, A. Montani and T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy. COSMO-SREPS. COSMO-LEPS (10 km) mainly designed for the 2-5 days range The spread is coming only from EPS initial and boundary conditions (large scale uncertainties) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project
C. Marsigli, A. Montani and T. Paccagnella
ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy
COSMO-SREPS
COSMO-LEPS (10 km) mainly designed for the 2-5 days range
The spread is coming only from EPS initial and boundary conditions (large scale uncertainties)
COSMO-SREPS (10 km) has been thought as a limited-area ensemble system for the short-range:
add more spread in the short-range => initial and boundary condition from a Multi-Model Multi-Analysis ensemble (INM SREPS)
take into account also small scale uncertainty => limited-area model (LM) errors
Link with data assimilation
1D-Var DA of satellite data to provide retrieval to be nudged within 7km LM (currently carried on by COSMO): investigate the possibility of using COSMO-SREPS to estimate a flow-dependent B matrix
SIR project: COSMO-SREPS will provide boundary conditions for the LM-K ensemble data assimilation runs
limited-area model error: schemes, parameters,
surface forcings
COSMO-SREPS
i.c. and b.c. perturbations -> INM multi-model multi-analysis
model perturbations -> Lokal Model perturbations
LAM ensemble
driving model errorsanalysis error at the global model scale
larger scale errors
smaller scale errors
ic and bc: multi-model approach
a MUlti-Model MUlti-Boundaries ensemble is operational at INM (Spain): 5 different limited-area models (HIRLAM, HRM, MM5, UM, LM) are nested on 4 different global models (IFS, GME, AVN, UM) => 20 members ensemble (25 km horizontal resolution)
IFS LM 25km
GME LM 25km
AVN LM 25 km
Courtesy of INM
UM LM 25 km
Good example of inter-consortia collaboration:
Formal agreement between COSMO and INM:
LM included into INM SREPS => more members
INM provides the LM-on-SREPS forecasts to COSMO
SREPS output made available by INM from May 2006: 3-hourly initial and boundary conditions for COSMO-SREPS are provided daily at ECMWF on ECFS (4 LM runs at 25 km on an Euro-Atlantic area, nested on 4 different global models interpolated with int2lm at 10 km over the COSMO-LEPS area)
Perturbation of model trajectories
• Schemes (physics and numerics): Some schemes have been selected to be perturbed: Tiedtke, Tiedtke with cape closure, Kain-Fritsch, 2-time-level, Runge-Kutta
• Parameters:
• a first selection of the parameters has been done
• new tuneable parameters will be tested (provided by the COSMO physics people + new namelist)
• Surface forcings: possible cooperation with Luca Bonaventura to test a technique for the perturbation of surface parameters
+ exploration of methodologies to perturb initial conditions at high resolution
Parameter listparameter name parameter description range default value usedPHYSICS
crsminminimal stomata resistance (part of 'terra'; sensible for much vegetation and not too dry soil [50,200] s/m 150 50, 200
c_soilsurface area index of the evaporating soil (part of 'terra'; sensible for less vegetation and not too dry soil ]0,c:lnd[ 0, clnd (=2)
plcovplant cover (part of 'terra' and 'turbtran'; controls transpiration) [0,1]
laileave area index (part of 'terra' and 'turbtran', controls transpiration) [0,10]
rlam_heat scaling factor of the laminar layer depth [0.1,50] 0.1, 50
c_difffactor for turbulent diffusion of TKE (may influence mixing at an inversion top) [0,2] 1 0, 2
pat_lenlength scale of thermal surface patterns (influences mixing in the stable stratified atmosphere) [0,10000] m 500 0, 10000
tur_lenmaximal turbulent length scale (influences mainly stratospheric mixing) [100,1000] m 1000
rat_canscaling parameter for the diagnosed canopy height (rather big influence on Td2m, but will be obsolete shortly) [0,10]
z0m_diaroughness length at a synop station (rather big influence on V10m, will very likely be obsolete in future) [0.05,0.5] m
NUMERICSl2tls 2-time-level scheme T or F false trueepsass Asselin filter coefficient [0.05,0.2] 0.15 0.05
COSMO-SREPS (Short-Range Ensemble
Prediction System) short range (up to 3 days)
16 LM runs at 10 km
LM at 25 km on IFS
IFS – ECMWF globalb
y I
NM
Sp
ain LM at 25 km on GME
GME – DWD global
LM at 25 km on UM
UM – UKMO global
LM at 25 km on NCEP
AVN – NCEP global
P1: conv. scheme (KF)
P2: turb. parameter 1
P3: time filter
P4: turb. parameter 2
13 15 UTC
47N
44N
6W 9W
13 18 UTC
47N
45N
7W
10W
14 00 UTC
46.5N
45N
10.5W 13W
14 06 UTC
13 May 12-18 UTC
COSMO-SREPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 12-18 18-24 24-30 h
COSMO-LEPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 0-6 6-12 12-18 h
> 10mm/6h
> 10mm/6h
10
30
60
90
100
COSMO-SREPS fc. range 24-30
14 May 0-6 UTC
ecmwf
gme
avn
ukmo
ensemble spread
12/05
12UTC
13/05
00UTC
13/05
12UTC
member behaviour (“father”)
intra-group distance
1-month test:autumn 2006
16 LM runs at 10 km
LM at 25 km on IFS
IFS – ECMWF globalb
y I
NM
Sp
ain LM at 25 km on GME
GME – DWD global
LM at 25 km on UM
UM – UKMO global
LM at 25 km on NCEP
AVN – NCEP global
P1: control (ope)
P2: conv. scheme (KF)
P3: turb. parameter 1
P4: turb. parameter 2
1-month test: model pert. with the same father
10 LM runs at 10 km
LM at 25 km on IFS
IFS – ECMWF global
by I
NM
Sp
ain
P1: control (ope)
P2: conv. scheme (KF)
P3: turb. parameter 1
P4: turb. parameter 2
P5: …
Future plans
• run of COSMO-SREPS with model perturbations for 1 month of Autumn 2006:
• statistical analysis of the system
• provide b.c. for EELMK (DWD) tests
• comparison with COSMO-LEPS and PEPS
• test a flow-dependent B-matrix for 1D-Var of satellite data
• MAP D-PHASE testing period (summer-autumn 2007) :
• perturbations selected on the basis of the 1-month test
• verification -> availability of observations
• comparison with the other available mesoscale ensemble systems