COSMO report [email protected] SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia With the contribution of all my COSMO colleagues COSMO

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

COSMO report

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With the contribution of all my COSMO colleagues

COSMO Status Report 2006 – 2007Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM


COSMO report

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Content

1. COSMO organization

2. Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview

3. COSMO scientific activitiesMichael Baldauf, DWD"COSMO numerics and physics-dynamics coupling"

DWD"Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting satellites in the COSMO modelby nudging"

Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM"Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the use of the Ensemble B matrices and other developments based on the 1DVar approach“

Philippe Steiner, MeteoSwissThe COSMO project: ’Tackle deficiencies in quantitative precipitationforecasts'

Chiara Marsigli, ARPA-SIM"EPS activities in COSMO"

Adriano Raspanti, USAM/CNMCA"Verification Strategies in COSMO"


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Changes in the COSMO management

Steering Committee Members: Mathias Rotach (the Chairman

MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) Hans-Joachim Koppert

DWD (Germany) Massimo Ferri

USAM (Italy) Ioannis Papageorgiou

HNMS (Greece) Ryszard Klejnowski

IMGW (Poland)

Scientific Project Manager: Tiziana Paccagnella

ARPA-SIM (Italy)

Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD Numerical aspects / Jürgen Steppeler DWD Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD





HNMS (Greece) Michal Ziemianski

IMGW (Poland)

Scientific Project Manager: Tiziana Paccagnella

ARPA-SIM (Italy)

Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD


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Future Changes in the COSMO management






IMGW (Poland)

Scientific Project Manager: Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM (Italy)

Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD

Steering Committee Members: Mathias Rotach

MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) Hans-Joachim Koppert the Chairman




IMGW (Poland) Victor Pescaru

NMA (Romania)

Scientific Project Manager: Marco Arpagaus Meteoswiss )Switzerland

Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD Physical aspects / tbd Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD


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New model name

The former Lokal Modell and its many associated names (LM, aLMo, LAMI etc..)

now is/are

COSMO-xy, where‘xy’ is an (up to) two-letter identification of the

application of the deterministic model is concerned (COSMO-K, COSMO-E, COSMO-

A2…)


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COSMO partners

Members of COSMO are the following national meteorological services:

DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, GermanyHNMS Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Athens, GreeceIMGW Institute for Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw,

PolandMeteoSwiss Meteo-Schweiz, Zurich, SwitzerlandUSAM Ufficio Spazio Aereo e Meteorologia, Roma, Italy

These regional and military services within the member states are also participating:

ARPA-SIM Servizio IdroMeteorologico di ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, ItalyARPA-Piemonte Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale-Piemonte, ItalyAWGeophys Amt für Wehrgeophysik, Traben-Trarbach, GermanyCIRA Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali Italy NMA, the Romanian Meteorological Service, will be full member before the end of 2007

Roshydromet, the Russian Hydromet Service has applied to join COSMO and is now applcant member


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Model system overview (1)

DynamicsBasic equations: Non-hydrostatic, fully compressible primitive equations; no scale

approximations; advection form; subtraction of a stratified dry base state at rest.Prognostic variables: Horizontal and vertical Cartesian wind components, temperature

(or temperature perturbations), pressure perturbation, specific humidity, cloud water content. Options for additional prognostic variables: cloud ice, turbulent kinetic energy, rain, snow and graupel content.

Diagnostic variables: Total air density, precipitation fluxes of rain, snow and graupel.Coordinates: Rotated geographical coordinates (λ,φ) and a generalized terrain-following

coordinate ς. Vertical coordinate system options: Hybrid reference pressure based σ-type coordinate (default) Hybrid version of the Gal-Chen coordinate Hybrid version of the SLEVE coordinate (Schaer et al. 2002) Z coordinate system almost available for testing (see the report by Juergen Steppeler)


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NumericsGrid structure: Arakawa C grid in the horizontal; Lorenz vertical staggeringTime integration: Second order horizontal and vertical differencing Leapfrog (horizontally explicit, vertically

implicit) time-split integration including extension proposed by Skamarock and Klemp 1992. Additional options for:

a two time-level Runge-Kutta split-explicit scheme (Wicker and Skamarock, 1998) a three time level 3-D semi-implicit scheme (Thomas et al., 2000) a two time level 3rd-order Runge-Kutta scheme (regular or TVD) with various options for high-order

spatial discretization (Förstner and Doms, 2004, Wicker and Skamarock, 2002)Numerical smoothing: 4th order linear horizontal diffusion with option for a monotonic version including an

orographic limiter (Doms, 2001); Rayleigh-damping in upper layers; quasi-3D divergence damping and off-centering in split steps.

Lateral Boundaries: 1-way nesting using the lateral boundary formulation according to Davies and Turner (1977). Options for:

boundary data defined on lateral frames only; periodic boundary conditionsDriving Models: The GME from DWD, the IFS from ECMWF and LM itself.Thanks to the cooperation with INM, in the framework of the INM-SREPS and COSMO SREPS projects, ICs

and BCs can now be extracted also from the NCEP and UK Met Office global models (see the report from Chiara Marsigli about the COSMO SREPS Project).


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PhysicsGrid-scale Clouds and Precipitation: Cloud water condensation /evaporation by saturation adjustment. Cloud

Ice scheme HYDCI (Doms,2002). Further options: prognostic treatment of rain and snow (Gassman,2002; Baldauf and Schulz, 2004, for the leapfrog

integration scheme) a scheme including graupel content as prognostic variable the previous HYDOR scheme: precipitation formation by a bulk parameterization including water

vapour, cloud water, rain and snow (rain and snow treated diagnostically by assuming column equilibrium)

a warm rain scheme following Kessler Subgrid-scale Clouds: Subgrib-scale cloudiness based on relative humidity and height. A corresponding

cloud water content is also interpreted.Moist Convection: Mass-flux convection scheme (Tiedtke) with closure based on moisture convergence.

Further options: a modified closure based on CAPE within the Tiedtke scheme the Kain-Fritsch convection schemeVertical Diffusion: Diagnostic K-closure at hierarchy level 2 by default. Optional: a new level 2.5 scheme with prognostic treatment of turbulent kinetic energy; effects of subgrid-scale

condensation and evaporation are included and the impact from subgrid-scale thermal circulations is taken into account.

Surface Layer: Constant flux layer parameterization based on the Louis (1979) scheme (default). Further options:

A new surface scheme including a laminar-turbulent roughness sub-layer


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Soil Processes:Two-layer soil model including snow and interception storage; climate values

are prescribed as lower boundary conditions; Penman-Monteith plant transpitration. Further options:

a new multi-layer soil model including melting and freezing (Schrodin and Heise, 2002)

Radiation: δ-two stream radiation scheme after Ritter and Geleyn (1992) for short and longwave fluxes; full cloud-radiation feedback

Initial Conditions: Interpolated from the driving model. Nudging analysis scheme (see below). Diabatic or adiabatic digital filtering initialization (DFI) scheme (Lynch et al.,

1997).Physiographical data Sets:Mean orography derived from the GTOPO30 data set(30"x30") from USGS.Prevailing soil type from the DSM data set (5'x5')of FAO.Land fraction, vegetation cover, root depth and leaf area index from the

CORINE data set.Roughness length derived from the GTOPO30 and CORINE data sets.


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Data Assimilation for LMMethod: Nudging towards observationsImplementation: Continuous cycleAnalyzed variables: horizontal wind vector, potential temperature, relative

humidity, 'near-surface' pressure (i.e. at the lowest model level)Observations:SYNOP, SHIP,DRIBU: station pressure, wind (stations below 100m above

msl) and humidityTEMP,PILOT: wind,temperature: all standard levels up to 300 hPa;

humidity:all levels up to 300 hPa; geopotential used for one “near-surface” pressure increment.

AIRCRAFT: all wind and temperature dataWIND PROFILER: all wind data (not included in blacklisted stations)Quality Control: Comparison with the model fields from the assimilation

run itself.A Latent Heat Nudging scheme is also implementedA nudging of temperature and humidity profile retrieved by satellite

radiances by using a 1-DVAR technique is also implemented for testing


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COSMO model versions during the year

COSMO-Model 3.21: (14.12.06) Preparations of Ensemble Mode Implementation of last changes for Runge-Kutta

dynamical core Other minor changes………………

COSMO-Model 3.22: (24.01.07) New Version of cloud microphysics (hydci_pp) Other minor changes

COSMO-Model 3.23: (30.03.07) New treatment of lateral boundaries for moisture variables Introduced option to calculate volume- and surface integrals

over arbitrary cuboid Other minor changes

COSMO-Model 3.24: (26.04.07) New version of cloud microphysics; here: Graupel

scheme Other minor changes………………


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COSMO model versions during the year

Now we have: COSMO-Model Version 4.0

Fully implemented all developments for high resolution (LMK-Project, work at other centers)

Fully implemented all changes for running the model in climate mode (long simulations, updating external parameters, NetCDF,…)


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Interpolation INT2LM

INT2LM 1.5 (05.07.07; Development Version) Implementation of the changes for high-resolution runs

(LMK-Project) Started implementation of changes from the climate

community (NetCDF, special interpolation procedures) Implemented possibility for interpolating additional variables

(e.g. chemistry variables)

INT2LM 1.6 (07.09.07; Development Version) (First) full implementation of all changes from the climate

community


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Other related developments …


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COSMO operational applications

Germany COSMO-EU 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING

COSMO-DE 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-EU

NUDGING

Switzerland COSMO -7 7 km BCs from IFS NUDGING

COSMO-2 2.2 km BCs fromCOSMO-7

NUDGING

Italy USAM COSMO-ME 7 km BCs from IFS 3D-PSAS

COSMO-IT 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-ME

NUDGING

Italy ARPA-SIM

COSMO -I7 7 km BCs from IFS NUDGING

COSMO-I2 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-I7

NUDGING

COSMO -bk 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING

Greece COSMO -GR 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING

Poland COSMO xx 14km - BCs from GME NUDGING

Romania COSMO xx 14km - BCs from GME NUDGING

More Info ….National PostersMore Info ….National Posters


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COSMO-LEPSat ECMWF

More details in the presentations by C.Marsigli…


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COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR

1. Structure and organization of COSMO

2. Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview

3. Operational Applications of the LM

4. COSMO scientific activities


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The present scientific organizationof COSMO

WG1 WG2 WG3 WG4 WG5 WG6

Scientific Working Groups

CO

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Pro

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TACKLE DEFICIENCES IN QPF

RK

LM_Z

1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA

SIR

SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6

UTCS

INTERPRETATION

SREPS

COMMON VERIFICATION – CONDITIONAL VERIFICATION


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Special Project Support Activities

PL: U. Schaettler DWD

1. Source Code Administration

2. Web Page Administration Contents Manager Web Master

3. Documentations, Newsletter, Technical Report Documentation COSMO Newsletter Technical Reports

includes many of the activities of WG6 Implementation and Reference Version

Still criticities related to the web page administration due to limited human

resources.


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Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD

This project was formulated 2 years ago based on the COSMO Long-term vision

emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA)


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This project was formulated 2 years ago based on the COSMO Long-term vision

emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA)

As regarded DA for convective scale it was decided that:

In the future Ensemble DA should play a major roleNudging at moment: robust and efficient, requires retrievals for use of indirect obs, no severe drawbacks (for short term) if we can make them available


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The SIR project take off has been delayed due to missing experienced resources.

•SAC/STC decision: long-term strategy of COSMO for DA to be re-discussed (2 meetings with external experts, 5 Sept (P.J. van Leeuwen), 18 Sept (Chris Snyder))

•SIR project is being revised / replaced


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New PP: Km-scale Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (KENDA)

Aim: Development a novel ensemble-based data assimilation system for the convective scale (or km-scale, i.e. 1 – 3 km model resolution)

Set up a modular system / framework for ensemble DA. Modular means that others (universities ..) can use it.components of the system can be replaced by alternatives

The system will be based on Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF, Hunt et al., 2007)

Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) filter (van Leeuwen, 2003) requires more basic research. This option should rely mainly on resources from co-operating universities and research institutions

KENDA IS NOW UNDER DEFINITION


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Some other issues related to Data Assimilation

Latent Heat Nudging DWD: COSMO-DE with LHN operational since April 2007

assessed benefit from revisions done in 2005 / 2006 to cope with prognostic precip

MetCH: – LHN real-time test suite for June – Aug 07 with COSMO-2 using Swiss radar data

verification in comparison to pre-opr. COSMO-2 without LHN positive impact of LHN on surface parameters throughout forecast,

particularly for 2-m temperature and cloudiness very clear positive impact on precipitation in some cases

GPS tomography: comprehensive monitoring (14 months) of quasi-operational

tomography profiles (at CSCS) against Payerne radiosonde and COSMO fields done

results: tomographic refractivity profiles have rather large errors unless COSMO forecasts are included as background info

start working on assimilating humidity profiles derived from tomography retrievals


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ASS free forecast ASS free forecast

LHNnoLHN

scores with latest version of microphysics & LHN 15 – 30 August , 00 and 12 UTC runs (32 forecasts)

threshold : 0.1 mm / h

LHNnoLHN

ETS FBI

LHNnoLHN


ETSLHNnoLHN

ETS


threshold : 0.1 mm / h thr. : 0.1 mm / h


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Priority Project 1dVar for satellite radiances

PL: R. Hess DWD

Specific talks by

DWD"Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting satellites in the COSMO modelby nudging"

Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM"Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the use of the Ensemble B matrices and other developments based on the 1DVar approach“


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Talk by Michael Baldauf

Special Project: LM_Z PL: Ulrich Schaettler


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Priority Project Further development of the Runge Kutta

method PL: M.Baldauf DWD

Talk by Michael Baldauf


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Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection

Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD

Implementation of Transport Equations for the Sub-Grid Scalar Variance, Coupling with Convection, Turbulence and Cloud Diagnostic Schemes Motivation There are many deficiencies of LM that are related to inadequate representation of boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection. Among them are

prediction of stratiform clouds, triggering and diurnal cycle of deep convection, prediction of partial cloud cover and cloudiness-radiation interaction,

to mention a few. These deficiencies manifest themselves in large forecast errors, first of all, of precipitation rate and timing and of 2m temperature. The proposed project is aimed at addressing the above issues in a unified turbulence-shallow convection framework. Goals

To account for turbulence and shallow non-precipitating convection in a unified framework (hopefully, for LMK and similar models with mesh-size of 2-3 km this is a ‘final’ solution, although convection-turbulence modelling with such a grid size is still terra incognita).

To achieve a better coupling between boundary layer turbulence, convection and radiation (for LM and similar models with the mesh-size 7-10 km; may require adaptation of the convection scheme).


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Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection

Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD

Delay due to lackness of available, trained resources.

This project has been considered important for the application of the COSMO model at the “quasi” convective scale

The projects is being reformulated including training of scientists with the required scientific background

The COSMO members, through the STC, will provide the necessary human resources

Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD

v. Development, coding and testing against LES and observational data of a two-equation model of moist PBL with non-precipitating clouds (UTCS), comparison of two-equations (TKE + TPE) and one-equation (TKE only) model [July 2008 – July 2009]

vi. Implementation of UTCS into the COSMO model [February 2009 – September2009]

vii. Investigation of the interaction of UTCS with the radiation, grid-scale microphysics and deep convection schemes, slowing down deep convection scheme as needed [January – June 2010]

viii. Testing UTCS within COSMO-model through numerical experiments, fine tuning UTCS parameters, evaluation of results [September 2009 – December 2010]

2008-2010Tasks

i. (i) Development, coding and testing against LES and observational data of a two-equation model of a temperature-stratified PBL; comparison of two-equations (TKE + TPE) and one-equation (TKE only) models

ii. (ii) Testing the existing sub-grid scale statistical cloud scheme in case that scheme is used by both the turbulence scheme and the radiation scheme of the COSMO model

iii. (iii) Comparison of the cloud condensate predicted by the sub-grid scale cloud schemes (statistical and relative-humidity) and by the grid-scale saturation adjustment procedure

iv. (iv) Testing modifications in the COSMO-model deep convection scheme (Tiedtke)

2007-2008


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Priority Project

Tackle deficiencies in precipitation forecasts PL: M. ArpagausDWD

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

COSMO Priority Project ’Tackle deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecasts’

COSMO General Meeting, 19 September 2007, Athens

S. Dierer1, M. Arpagaus1, U. Damrath2, A. Seifert2, J. Achimowicz8, E. Avgoustoglou7, M. Baldauf2, R. Dumitrache9, V. Fragkouli7, F. Grazzini3, P. Louka7, P. Mercogliano6, P. Mezzasalma3, M. Milelli4, D. Mironov2, A. Morgillo3, E. Oberto4, A. Parodi5, I.V. Pescaru9, U. Pflüger2, A. Sanna4, F. Schubiger1, K. Starosta8, M. S. Tesini3

1MeteoSwiss (CH), 2DWD (D), 3ARPA-ER (IT), 4ARPA-P (IT), 5Uni Genova

(IT), 6CIRA-CMCC (IT), 7HNMS (GR), 8IMGW (PO), 9NMA (RO)

39 PP QPF

Aim of PP QPF

The aim of PP QPF is improved knowledge about • most suitable namelist settings or • parts of the model that need to be reformulated

to obtain a better QPF at 7 km horizontal grid size

Good quantitative precipitation forecast is a challenging task – also for the COSMO model:

The project has a focus on model deficiencies – not on errors from e.g. initial and large scale conditions

40 PP QPF

Overview of PP QPF

• Task 1: Selection of test cases representative for „typical“ QPF deficiencies of COSMO model

• Task 2: Definition of sensitivity studies

• Task 3: Run sensitivity studies and draw conclusions

41 PP QPF

List of test cases from all countries

DATE INSITUTION Overestimation (+)/underestimation (-)

Stratiform (strat)/convective(con)

06.12.2004 DWD + strat warm sector

18.03.2005 DWD + strat cold front+orography

03.05.2005 DWD + Strat+conv warm front

21.06.2005 DWD - conv cold front

02.02.2005 MeteoSwiss + strat occluded front+orogr.

22.03.2005 MeteoSwiss + strat warm front

12.07.2005 MeteoSwiss + conv -

17.12.2005 MeteoSwiss + strat orography

24.09.2004 ARPA-P - conv cold front+orography

10.04.2005 ARPA-ER + strat occluded front+orogr.

17.08.2006 CIRA-CMCC - conv cold front+orography

09.09.2005 CIRA-CMCC - conv -

01.12.2005 NMA - strat cold front

03.12.2005 NMA - strat cold front+orography

17.12.2005 NMA - Strat+conv cold front

15.09.2005 HNMS - conv -

23.11.2005 HNMS - Strat+conv warm front

26.11.2005 HNMS - strat orography

03.05.2005 IMGW - strat cold front

04.05.2005 IMGW 0 strat cold front

09.06.2005 IMGW + strat -

09.08.2005 IMGW + strat -

23.06.2005 NMA + strat+conv cold front

02.07.2005 NMA + strat cold front

12.07.2005 NMA - strat cold front

42 PP QPF

Forecast errors

• 10 cases of stratiform overestimation (8 from D, CH and PO)• 4 cases of stratiform underestimation• 3 cases of convective overestimation• 7 cases of convective underestimation (6 from I and GR)

43 PP QPF

Sensitivity studies

• 1. Changes of initial conditions• 2. Changes of numerical methods• 3.1 Changes of microphysics• 3.2 Changes of convection schemes• 3.3 Changes of PBL schemes

44 PP QPF | Status ReportMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Conclusions (still preliminary …)

• COSMO Version 4.0 is a good step forward!

• Further improvements expected from Runge-Kutta.

• We should have a closer look at the (initial) humidity fields. – Any improvements in data assimilation expected?

• Convection schemes are the next thing to look at.

• BUT: Even combining all positive (i.e. precipitation reducing …) effects does only cure about half of the cases of (stratiform) overprediction (main aim of project at project start …).

• publication of results planned until end of the year


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Priority Project

Development of short range ensemble (SREPS) PL: C.Marsigli ARPA-SIM

Talk by Chiara Marsigli


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Priority Project

Advanced interpretation of LM outputs PL: Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss

Some results in the talk by Adriano Raspanti

The foreseen increase in resolution of the models will lead to a proliferation of grid points and probably also to an increase of the noise in the forecasts. The manifestations of the double penalty effect will increase for events not predicted exactly at the right place at the right time. Valuable information can however be found by composing a statistics on the neighbourhood of a verification point. Various ways to extract the best possible information out of high density precipitation fields have been proposed so far. I can be of deterministic nature (means, quantiles,…) or totally probabilistic. Different “fuzzy” verification methods will be explored and compared in this project.


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Priority Project

Conditional Verification PL: Adriano Raspanti USAM

Talk by Adriano Raspanti


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CO

SM

O P

rio

rity

Pro

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s

QPF

RK

LM_Z

1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA

SIR

SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6

INTERPRETATION/ Verif. VHR

SREPS

VerSUS

2007 2008

GM GM

KENDA

UTCS

?

Due to projects which are going to finish, next year we should be able to concentrate resources on a really small numbers of Prio Progets


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Further Info (soon) at:www.cosmo-model.org


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Thank You!

Documents

COSMO report [email protected] SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia With the contribution of all my COSMO colleagues COSMO