Winter Rapid Assessment
AfghanistanOpium Survey 2010
Feb
ruary
2010
Government of AfghanistanMinistry of Counter Narcotics
ABBREVIATIONS
AGE Anti Government Elements GPS Global Positioning System ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) ORA Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2010 Afghanistan Opium Survey and to the preparation of this report:
Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Dr. Mohammad Zafar (Deputy Minister), Mohammad Ibrahim Azhar (Deputy Minister) Mir Abdullah (Deputy Director of Survey and Monitoring Directorate) Survey Coordinators: Eshaq Masumi (Central Region), Abdul Mateen (Eastern Region), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Western Region), Fida Mohammad (Northern Region), Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi (North-Eastern Region), Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Database supervisor), Mohammad Ajmal (Data entry), Sahar (Data entry), Mohammad Hakim Hayat (Data entry).
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul) Jean-Luc Lemahieu (Country Representative), Ashita Mittal (Deputy Representative, Programme),Kelly Smith (Deputy Representative, Operations), Devashish Dhar (International Project Coordinator), Ziauddin Zaki (National Project Coordinator), Abdul Mannan Ahmadzai (Survey Officer), Noor Mohammad Sadiq (Database Developer) Remote sensing analysts: Ahmad Jawid Ghiasee and Sayed Sadat Mehdi Eradication reporters: Ramin Sobhi and Zia Ulhaq
Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (Eastern Region), Abdul Jalil (Northern Region), Abdul Qadir Palwal (Southern Region), Fawad Alahi (Western Region), Mohammad Rafi (North-Eastern Region), Rahimullah Omar (Central Region), Sayed Ahmad (Southern Region), Abdul Rahim Marikh (Eastern Region), Fardin Osmani (Northern Region)
Provincial Coordinators: Fazal Mohammad Fazli (Southern Region), Mohammad Alam Ghalib (Eastern Region), Altaf Hussain Joya (Western Region), Mohammed Alem Yaqubi (North-Eastern Region), Lutfurhaman Lutfi (Northern Region)
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Angela Me (Chief, Statistics and Surveys Section-SASS), Martin Raithelhuber (Programme Officer), Philip Davis (Statistician), Coen Bussink (GIS Expert) (all SASS), Suzanne Kunnen (Public Information Assistant, Studies and Threat Analysis Section), Dorien Braam (Intern).
The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors, who often faced difficult security conditions.
UNODC’s illicit crop monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the Governments of Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States of America.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................. 1
1. GENERAL FINDINGS............................................................................................................ 2
1.1. DRIVING FORCES BEHIND OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS IN 2010................. 91.2. NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM........................................................... 111.3. CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR OPIUM CULTIVATION................................ 111.4. AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE ................................................................................ 111.5. FIELD SECURITY DURING ORAS IMPLEMENTATION........................................ 121.6. ERADICATION AND AWARENESS .......................................................................... 121.7. PRICES........................................................................................................................... 13
2. FINDINGS BY PROVINCE ................................................................................................. 22
2.1. NORTH-EASTERN REGION ............................................................................................... 22BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE.................................................................................................... 22TAKHAR PROVINCE .............................................................................................................. 22KUNDUZ PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 23
2.2. EASTERN REGION ............................................................................................................ 24NANGARHAR PROVINCE ...................................................................................................... 24KUNAR PROVINCE ................................................................................................................ 24LAGHMAN PROVINCE........................................................................................................... 24NURISTAN PROVINCE........................................................................................................... 25KAPISA PROVINCE ................................................................................................................ 25
NORTHERN REGION................................................................................................................ 26BAGHLAN PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 26BAMYAN PROVINCE.............................................................................................................. 26BALKH PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 26FARYAB PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 27JAWZJAN PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 27SAMANGAN PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 27SARI PUL PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 28
CENTRAL REGION ................................................................................................................... 29GHAZNI PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 29KHOST PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 29LOGAR PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 29PAKTIKA PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 30PAKTYA PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 30PARWAN PROVINCE.............................................................................................................. 30PANJSHIR PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 31WARDAK PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 31KABUL PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 31
SOUTHERN REGION ................................................................................................................ 32KANDAHAR PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 32HILMAND PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 32URUZGAN PROVINCE ........................................................................................................... 32ZABUL PROVINCE ................................................................................................................. 33DAY KUNDI PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 33
WESTERN REGION................................................................................................................... 34HIRAT PROVINCE .................................................................................................................. 34FARAH PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 34NIMROZ PROVINCE............................................................................................................... 35GHOR PROVINCE .................................................................................................................. 35BADGHIS PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 35
3. METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................. 36
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
Maps
Map 1: Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by province) ………………… 3
Map 2: Expected opium cultivation level in 2010 (by province) ………………….. 4
Map 3: Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by district) ………………….. 5
Map 4: Regional grouping of provinces for opium poppy survey in Afghanistan ... 6
Map 5: Opium poppy planting time ……………………………………………….. 16
Map 6: Opium poppy flowering time ………………….…………………………… 17
Map 7: Opium poppy harvesting time ………………... …………………………… 18
Map 8: Dry opium prices (US$) ……………………………………………………. 19
Map 9: Sampling frame and selected villages.…………………………………….. 20
Map 10: Cultivation trend vs. security situation.………………………………….. 21
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
1
A year of consolidation
Executive Summary
After a major drop in opium cultivation (one third) over the past two years, UNODC projects a stable crop in Afghanistan in 2010.
The majority of the 20 Afghan provinces that were poppy-free in 2009 will remain so this year. Yet, three provinces (Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul, all in the north) risk showing the beginning of a trend reversal, with a minimal increase in cultivation in the districts with higher insecurity. Five other provinces (Kunar, Nangarhar, Kabul, Laghman and Badakhshan), not poppy-free so far, are also expected to have negligible amounts of poppies.
All considered, with appropriate local community-inspired measures – such as shura-driven campaigns, governor-led eradication, and development assistance – up to 25 Afghan provinces could become poppy-free in 2010. Further progress in the reduction of drug cultivation (hectares) in Afghanistan is within reach.
Against the recent trend of ever higher productivity in the country-side, agricultural conditions in Afghanistan are expected to deteriorate in 2010, because of bad weather. Lower opium yields should also reduce the volume (tons) of opium produced, continuing the decline that has characterized the past three years.
Why is all this happening? Since 2007 market forces have played a major role in influencing farmers’ decisions against opium cultivation. This is under threat as the price of licit crops (especially wheat at -43%) is falling faster than that of (dry) opium (-6%). Yet the reversal is not imminent: in the south-west, where most of the opium is grown, a quarter of farmers cited low prices and low yields as the main reasons for not growing opium this year.
Relative price trends are only part of the story. Good governance and control of the territory are vital factors to uphold the law. In the more stable (north-western) provinces most farmers (61%) refrained from growing opium in 2010 “because it is illegal”. This figure is significantly lower (39%) in the south-west where “governance is poorer and insecurity higher”. Actually, the strongest correlation is between insurgency and cultivation. The survey indicates that almost 80% of villages with very poor security conditions grew poppy, while opium only grows in 7% of villages unaffected by violence.
As stated by President Karzai at the London Conference, the Afghan authorities must show leadership and ownership to wean Afghanistan’s farmers off the world’s deadliest drug. While it is essential to tackle the problem where it is most acute (in the south), particular attention should be given to the eight swing provinces that are on the verge of becoming poppy -free. This would turn the recent improvement (2008-09) into a sustainable longer term trend.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
2
1. GENERAL FINDINGS Following the 22 % reduction in opium cultivation in 2009 (123,000 ha), the Opium Winter Rapid Assessment (ORAS) anticipates an overall stable opium cultivation in Afghanistan in 2010.1
Four provinces, Uruzgan, Faryab, Baghlan and Sari Pul are likely to show a moderate increase in opium cultivation.
The twenty provinces reported to be poppy-free in 2009 are likely to be reduced to only 17 in 2010. The assessment indicates that three provinces, Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul, which were poppy-free in 2009, will not be poppy-free in 2010 unless timely eradication is implemented or if the current drought-like conditions persist.
A moderate decrease in opium cultivation is expected in Kunar, Nangarhar, Badghis, Farah, Hirat, Nimroz, Day Kundi and Zabul provinces. Kunar and Nangarhar can be poppy-free if timely eradication is implemented.
The opium cultivation is expected to remain stable in Kabul, Laghman, Badakhshan, Hilmand and Kandahar provinces. Kabul, Laghman and Badakhshan can be poppy-free if timely eradication is implemented. However, cultivation would remain very high in Hilmand and high in Kandahar.
Overall, the cultivation of opium in Afghanistan is likely to remain stable in 2010 but the number of poppy-free provinces may decrease. However, if timely poppy eradication measures are implemented and/or drought-like conditions prevail, a total of 25 provinces, an increase of 5 compared to 2009, could be poppy-free in 2010.
Table 1 Opium cultivation trends at a glance
1 The 2010 Opium Winter Assessment report is based on a relatively small sample of villages and the results are indicative, only.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
3
Map 1 Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by province)
TURKMENISTAN
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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
4
Map 2 Expected opium cultivation level in 2010 (by province)
TURKMENISTAN
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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
5
Map 3 Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by district)
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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
6
Map 4 Regional grouping of provinces for opium surveys in Afghanistan
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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
7
Table 2 Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by province)
Region Province Cultivation 2009 (ha)
2010 Expected opium cultivation
change
Expected opium
cultivation levels
Ghazni Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Kabul 132 Stable Insignificant Khost Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Logar Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Paktika Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Paktya Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Panjshir Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Parwan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free
Central
Wardak Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Kapisa Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Kunar 164 Moderate decrease Insignificant Laghman 135 Stable Insignificant Nangarhar 294 Moderate decrease Low
Eastern
Nuristan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Baghlan Poppy-free Moderate increase Insignificant Balkh Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Bamyan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Faryab Poppy-free Moderate increase Insignificant Jawzjan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Samangan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free
Northern
Sari Pul Poppy-free Moderate increase Insignificant Badakhshan 557 Stable Low Kunduz Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free North-easternTakhar Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Day Kundi 3,002 Moderate decrease Moderate Hilmand 69,833 Stable Very high Kandahar 19,811 Stable High Uruzgan 9,224 Moderate increase High
Southern
Zabul 1,144 Moderate decrease Moderate Badghis 5,411 Moderate decrease High Farah 12,405 Moderate decrease High Ghor Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Hirat 556 Moderate decrease Low
Western
Nimroz 428 Moderate decrease Low Total(Rounded) 123,000 Overall Stable
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
8
Trends by region
The 2010 ORAS highlights the following key cultivation trends as compared to 2009:
Central region: the entire Central region can become poppy-free if opium cultivation in Surobi district of Kabul province is substantively reduced. Cultivation is stable in Kabul compared to 2009.
Eastern region: Opium cultivation in Eastern region may be moderately reduced. The cultivation level in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces is lower compared to 2009 results, and restricted to mountainous regions. Opium cultivation in Laghman province is reported to be stable. Kapisa and Nuristan would remain poppy-free.
Northern region: The region became poppy-free in 2009. However, Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul show an increase in some of the districts and would not be poppy-free this year. Balkh, Bamyan, Jawzjan and Samangan would remain poppy-free again this year.
North-eastern region: Opium cultivation in Badakhshan would remain stable. This is the only province in North-eastern region where opium has traditionally been cultivated. Takhar and Kunduz are the other two provinces in this region and would remain poppy-free.
Southern region: The main opium cultivating provinces in this region Hilmand and Kandahar would remain stable compared to last year. The rapid assessment of this region shows that it would still remain the largest opium producing region. Hilmand province is expected to retain its status of the largest opium cultivating province.
Western region: There is a likely moderate decrease in opium cultivation in all the provinces in this region. Badghis and Farah would remain a high cultivating province while Hirat and Nimroz would have low cultivation. Ghor province is expected to remain poppy-free.
The three provinces in Northern region, Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul which were poppy-free last year would not be poppy-free this year because of an increase in opium cultivation in some of the districts which may be related to insecurity. Baghlan-I-Jadeed, Dahana-I-Ghuri, Deh Salah and Pul-I-Hisar are the four districts of Baghlan province where there has been increase in opium cultivation. In Faryab province the districts of Bil Chiragh, Gurziwan and Kohistan are expected to cultivate more poppy. In Kohistanat and Sayyad districts of Sari Pul province an increase of cultivation is also reported.
In the winter this year, there has been very little snow in the region and if this condition prevails there would be a lack of water for irrigation. Under such circumstances these provinces could remain poppy-free. The drought like conditions would adversely effect both irrigated and rain-fed opium cultivation.
Although there is a moderate decrease in the trends in opium cultivation in most of the provinces in Western region, as well as Zabul and Day Kundi provinces in the Southern region, the overall cultivation would remain stable in the country because of stable cultivation trends in the provinces with highest cultivation Hilmand and Kandahar. Badghis and Farah also remain provinces with high levels of cultivation, even after a moderate decrease in the cultivation trends this year (2010). This decrease in trends would be balanced by the increase in cultivation in Uruzgan, Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul.
The quality and quantity of opium crop in high altitude rain-fed areas of northern Afghanistan will depend on the amount of rainfall during the upcoming spring season.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
9
1.1. DRIVING FORCES BEHIND OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS IN 2010
During the 2010 ORAS, village headmen from poppy growing and non-poppy growing villages were asked to state the main reason why the farmers chose to cultivate opium instead of other crops or not cultivate it at all.
Reasons for opium cultivation in 2010
“Higher sales price of poppy as compared to other crops” was the predominant reason (39%) for growing opium. Although the opium price continues to decrease, its level is still higher than other crops and for some farmers, opium continues to be a more lucrative investment than other crops. About 32% of respondents also cited ‘poverty’ as the most dominant reason. Interestingly, in 8% of the responses, the reason for growing opium poppy was the “lack of governmental control”.
Figure 1 Reasons for opium cultivation in 2010 in opium growing villages
1%
1%
2%
3%
5%
5%
6%
8%
32%
39%
0% 20% 40%
No market for other crops
Climate conditions suitable
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Other
No support from Government
High income from little land
High demand for opium
Lack of Government control
Poverty (provision of basic food and shelter)
High sale price of opium
Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2010
Reasons reported by headmen for not cultivating opium differed between the southern and western region and the rest of the country.
The predominant reasons given by 39% of respondents for not growing poppy in the Southern and Western regions are ‘banned by the Government’, 13% responded with the reason ‘not enough yield’ and 12% mentioned the ‘low sale price of opium’. ‘Cultivating opium is against Islam’, ‘elders and shura’s decision’ and ‘fear of eradication’ were also mentioned, but by fewer headmen.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
10
Figure 2 Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2010 (Southern and Western regions)
0.2%
0.2%
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
4%
8%
11%
12%
13%
39%
0% 20% 40%
High sale price of w heat
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High cost of inputs (fertilizer, labors etc.)
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Lack of w ater
Lack of experience
Other
Fear of Eradication
Elders and Shura decsion
It is against Islam
Low sale price of opium
Not enough yield
It w as banned by Government
Note: 99% of the total opium of Afghanistan was cultivated in these regions in 2009.
In the rest of the country, 61% of the respondents quoted as most dominant reason for not growing poppy ‘banned by the Government’ compared to only 39 % in the Southern and Western regions. Their second most dominant reason, by 16 % of the respondents was ‘elders and shura’s decision’. ‘low sale price of opium’, ‘cultivating opium is against Islam’ and ‘fear of eradication’ was also cited by a number of respondents.
Figure 3 Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2010 (regions other than Southern and Western)
0.2%
0.3%
1%
1%
4%
5%
5%
7%
16%
61%
0% 32% 64%
Lack of experience
It is harmful for human beings
Climate conditions not suitbale
Not enough yield
Fear of Eradication
It is against Islam
Low sale price of opium
Other
Elders and Shura decsion
It was banned by Government
Note: Only 1% of the total opium of Afghanistan was cultivated in these regions in 2009.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
11
1.2. NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM
Of the 536 villages visited, 188 (35 %) reported that they expect to grow opium poppy in 2010. The percentage of poppy-growing villages among those visited varies from region to region. In the Southern and Central region, 60-62 % of the surveyed villages reported planned opium cultivation in 2010. During ORAS 2009, 71% of the villages in Southern region reported opium cultivation.
Table 3 Proportion of opium-growing villages
% of villages surveyed (ORAS 2010) % of villages surveyed (ORAS 2009)
Region No opium
cultivation in 2010
Opiumcultivation in
2010
No opium cultivation in
2009
Opiumcultivation in
2009 Central 40% 60% 99% 1% Eastern 80% 20% 91% 9% North-Eastern 91% 9% 97% 3% Northern 97% 3% 96% 4% Southern 38% 62% 29% 71% Western 61% 39% 65% 35% Total 65% 35% 73% 27%
Note: The ORAS 2010 did not cover the same survey area as the ORAS 2009.Thus, results are not directly comparable.
1.3. CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR OPIUM CULTIVATION
The ORAS 2010 indicates that 14% (down from 18% in ORAS 2009) of the surveyed opium poppy-growing villages received cash advances from external sources to grow opium poppy. Respondents in Badakhshan (14%), Hilmand (11%), Kandahar (27%), Uruzgan (54%) and Zabul (57%) reported that they had received such advances.
1.4. AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE
Of the 536 villages visited, 231 (43%) have received agricultural assistance in the form of seed, fertilizers and irrigation facilities, and 57% reported not to have received such assistance.
By comparison, almost two thirds of the villages, which are expected to have opium cultivation in 2010, had not received agricultural assistance in 2009. This indicates that the provision of agricultural assistance could have a positive effect on the decision to grow or not to grow opium. On the other hand, about 13% of all villages surveyed had received agricultural assistance and still continue to grow opium pointing to the existence of other factors.
Table 4 Agricultural assistance vis-à-vis expected opium cultivation
Opium cultivation expected in 2010
Agricultural assistance received in 2009 No Yes Total
No 35% 22% 57% Yes 30% 13% 43% Total 65% 35% 100%
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
12
1.5. FIELD SECURITY DURING ORAS IMPLEMENTATION
The survey indicates that approximately 79% of villages with ‘very poor’ security and 66% of those with ‘poor’ security are involved in opium cultivation, as compared to only 20% and 7% of villages with ‘good’ and ‘very good’ security. Security was of general concern in most areas in the Southern region (Hilmand, Uruzgan and Kandahar). In the Western region, Nimroz and Farah provinces had poor security conditions.
Table 5 Security situation vis-à-vis expected opium cultivation
No. of villages surveyed
Security situation No opium cultivation in 2010
Opiumcultivation in
2010
% of villages cultivating
opium poppy
Very poor 13 50 79% Poor 42 82 66% Good 201 49 20% Very good 92 7 7%
1.6. ERADICATION AND AWARENESS
Of the 536 villages surveyed during the ORAS, 188 (35%) have planted opium poppy for the 2010 cultivation season. Of these 188, only 36 villages had experienced opium eradication in 2009. A large majority of those (32 villages) still decided to plant opium despite having experienced eradication in 2009. Whether or not a village has experienced eradication did not seem to have a significant influence on its decision to continue or stop opium cultivation.
Table 6 Eradication in 2009 vis-à-vis expected opium cultivation in 2010
% of villages surveyed
Eradication in 2009
No opium cultivation in
2010
Opiumcultivation in
2010 Total
No 64% 29% 93% Yes 1% 6% 7% Total 65% 35% 100%
An awareness campaign to prevent opium cultivation was conducted in many areas of Afghanistan in October and November 2009. Just over half of the surveyed villages (54%) were reached by awareness campaigns. About half of the villages, which expected to grow opium in 2010, had been reached by an awareness campaign against opium cultivation, and the other half hadn't. Whether or not a village had been reached by an awareness campaign seems to have only limited influence on the decision to grow or not to grow opium.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
13
Table 7 Awareness campaign in 2009 vis-à-vis expected opium cultivation in 2010
% of villages surveyed
Awareness campaign
No opium cultivation in
2010
Opiumcultivation in
2010 Total
No 29% 17% 46% Yes 36% 18% 54% Total 65% 35% 100%
1.7. PRICESUNODC collects monthly opium prices from 15 key provinces. In addition to this, the ORAS 2010 collected price information in 536 surveyed villages. The average farm-gate prices of dry opium at the time of the survey were in line with the monthly price report in December 2009. The detailed overview of opium prices is provided based on Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2009.
Figure 4 Regional average price of dry opium collected from traders, January 2005 – December 2009
DRY OPIUM PRICE
0
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200
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300
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Month
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Eastern Southern Western North-eastern Northern
Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2009
Since June 2007, prices of dry opium in the Western and Eastern regions remain higher than the prices in other regions. Increase in prices in the Western region can be attributed to its strategic position in bordering Iran. In the last few months, prices in Southern and Northern region are becoming lower than in other regions. Lower prices in the Southern region can be explained by the availability of opium stocks with the farmers and drug dealers, a result of bumper opium production in 2007 and 2008.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
14
Figure 5 Average farm-gate prices for dry opium, September 2004 – December 2009
180
154
222
170
187
161
147
139
123
137
167 17
116
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74 73 73 71 7378 79 79
83
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Dec
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Dec
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Month
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Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2009
Farmers in Afghanistan usually cultivate crops twice a year in irrigated areas, typically growing maize, rice, vegetables or cotton after harvesting opium or wheat. Some farmers grow cannabis after the first summer harvest. None of Afghanistan’s licit agricultural products can currently match the gross income per hectare from opium, although the difference is not as high as it used to be some years ago.
During ORAS, respondents were asked about the market prices of agricultural commodities. Comparison of prices collected during ORAS 2009 and ORAS 2010 show significant decrease in prices of opium and food grains.
Between December 2009 and December 2010, wheat prices decreased much more than opium prices. Potentially, this development renders opium cultivation more attractive.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
15
Table 8 Prices of dry opium and food grains in 2009 and 2010
Price (US$/kg) Product ORAS 2009 ORAS 2010 % change Dry opium 85.16 80.23 -6% Fresh opium 61.74 53.66 -13% Wheat 0.6 0.34 -43% Rice 1.12 1.03 -8% Maize 0.42 0.26 -38%
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
16
Map 5: Opium poppy planting time
UZBEKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
IRAN
PAKISTAN
INDIA
TURKMENISTAN
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t
Fara
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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
17
Map 6: Opium poppy flowering time
UZBEKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
IRAN
IRAN
PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN
PAK
ISTA
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TURKMENISTAN
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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
18
Map 7: Opium harvest time
TURKMENISTAN
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30°N
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lend
ors
em
ent
orac
cept
anc
eb
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nite
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atio
ns.
Nuris
tan Ku
nar
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l
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r
arw
an
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t
Pakt
iya
Nang
arha
r
Panj
shir
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man
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sa Suru
bi Jaji
Azra
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at
Alin
gar
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ando
l
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b
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Way
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rak
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ta
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oor
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aiBa
gram
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hi
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amm
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kani
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ri(Y
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rdez
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ialC
ente
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ra
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h
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el
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or
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am
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ani
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am(P
rovin
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er)
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yzai
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her)
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ah
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r
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lef
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ahi
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Mat
aKh
an
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tan
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on(P
rovi
ncia
lCen
ter)
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man
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ra
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awa
rah
Khos
tMat
un(P
rovin
cialC
ente
r)
BarK
unar
(Asm
ar)
Jaba
luss
araj
East
ern
regi
on
Geo
grap
hic
Pro
ject
ion
Dat
um:W
GS
84
010
020
030
050
km
Lege
ndHa
rves
tCal
enda
r
Late
July
Early
July
Late
June
Early
June
Late
May
Early
May
Late
April
Early
April
No
Dat
a
Dis
trict
boun
dary
Inte
rnat
iona
lbou
ndar
yPr
ovin
cial
boun
dary
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
19
Map 8: Dry opium prices December 2009 (US$/kg)
INDIA
INDIA
UR
UZG
AN
PAN
JSH
IR
HIR
AT
FAR
AH
HIL
MA
ND
GH
OR
NIM
RO
Z
KAN
DA
HA
R
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N
DAY
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I
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I
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H
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IS
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A
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UL
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AN
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N
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AN
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UL
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DU
Z
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TYA
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AR
NAN
GA
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AR
LOG
AR
LAG
HM
AN
KAP
ISA
PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN
IRAN
IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
CHINA
CHINA
Trad
er:7
4Fa
rmer
:68
Trad
er:7
2Fa
rmer
:65
Trad
er:9
6Fa
rmer
:84
Trad
er:1
17Fa
rmer
:102
Trad
er:7
5Fa
rmer
:71
Trad
er:6
2Fa
rmer
:57
Trad
er:1
06Fa
rmer
:90
Trad
er:6
7Fa
rmer
:59
Trad
er:7
6Fa
rmer
:72
Trad
er:7
4Fa
rmer
:72
Trad
er:7
4Fa
rmer
:70
Trad
er:6
6Fa
rmer
:0
Trad
er:1
34Fa
rmer
:132Tr
ader
:125
Farm
er:1
15Tr
ader
:133
Farm
er:1
17
Afg
hani
stan
:Ave
rage
dry
opiu
mpr
ice
(Dec
2009
)
Sour
ce:G
over
nmen
tofA
fgha
nist
an-N
atio
nalm
onito
ring
syst
emim
plem
ente
dby
UN
OD
CN
ote:
The
boun
darie
san
dna
mes
show
nan
dth
ede
sign
atio
nsus
edon
this
map
dono
tim
ply
offic
iale
ndor
sem
ento
racc
epta
nce
byth
eU
nite
dN
atio
ns.
Lege
nd Pric
eno
tcol
lect
ed
Inte
rnat
iona
lbou
ndar
yPr
ovin
cial
boun
dary
Farm
er:
Farm
erdr
yop
ium
pric
ein
US
D/k
gTr
ader
:Tr
ader
dry
opiu
mpr
ice
inU
SD
/kg
Pric
eco
llect
ed
±0
100
200
50Km
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
20
Map 9: Sampling frame and selected villages for the Winter Assessment 2010
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IRAN
IRAN
PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN
INDIA
INDIA
TURKMENISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
75°E
75°E
70°E
70°E
65°E
65°E
60°E
60°E 35°N
35°N
30°N
30°N
Afg
hani
stan
:Opi
umR
apid
Ass
essm
entS
urve
y,Sa
mpl
edvi
llage
s20
10
Sour
ce:G
over
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tofA
fgha
nist
an-N
atio
nalm
onito
ring
syst
emim
plem
ente
dby
UN
OD
CN
ote:
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boun
darie
san
dna
mes
show
nan
dth
ede
sign
atio
nsus
edon
this
map
dono
tim
ply
offic
iale
ndor
sem
ento
racc
epta
nce
byth
eU
nite
dN
atio
ns.
Lege
nd
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rnat
iona
lbou
ndar
y
Prov
inci
albo
unda
ry
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RA
SS
ampl
edvi
llage
s
¯G
eogr
aphi
cpr
ojec
tion,
WG
S84
015
030
075
km
2009
Sam
pled
villa
ges
(Vill
age
surv
ey)
!
Note: The villages surveyed for the Winter Assessment 2010 are a subsample of the villages surveyed during the 2009 Opium Survey.
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
21
Map 10: Cultivation trend vs. security situation
TURKMENISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN
IND
IAIN
DIA
IRAN
IRAN
Hira
t Fara
h
Gho
r
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and
Kan
daha
r
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roz
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akhs
han
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kh
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zni
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l
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ab
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ghis
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ika
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hlan
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yan
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Takh
ar
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kund
i
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zjan
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dak
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zgan
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anga
n
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ista
n
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duz
Kun
arK
abul
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r Kho
st
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an
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iya
Nan
garh
ar
Panj
shir La
ghm
anK
apis
a
75°E
75°E
72°E
72°E
69°E
69°E
66°E
66°E
63°E
63°E
36°N
36°N
33°N
33°N
30°N
30°N
Secu
rity
map
(as
at21
Janu
ary
2010
)Vs.
Expe
cted
opiu
mcu
ltiva
tion
tren
ds(b
ypr
ovin
ce)
Sou
rce
secu
rity
ma
p:U
ND
SS
Sou
rce:
MC
N-
UN
OD
CA
fgha
nis
tan
Opi
um
Rap
idA
sses
me
ntS
urve
y,2
010
(http
://w
ww
.un
odc.
org/
unod
c/e
n/cr
op_m
onito
ring
.htm
l)N
ote:
The
boun
dari
esan
dn
ames
show
nan
dth
ed
esig
natio
nsus
edon
this
ma
pdo
noti
mpl
yof
ficia
lend
ors
em
ent
orac
cept
anc
eb
yth
eU
nite
dN
atio
ns.
Geo
grap
hic
Pro
ject
ion
Dat
um:W
GS
840
100
200
300
50km
Ghaz
ni
War
dak
Bagh
lan
Kabu
l
Nuris
tan
Parw
an Loga
r
Khos
t
Pakt
iya
Nang
arha
r
Pakt
ika
Kuna
r
Panj
shir
Lagh
man
Bam
yan
Kapi
sa
Bada
khsh
an
Secu
rity
Cul
tivat
ion
chan
ge
Incr
ease
Extre
me
risk
Hig
hris
kM
ediu
mris
kLo
wris
k
Popp
yfre
e
Dec
reas
e
Stab
le
Inte
rnat
iona
lbou
ndar
yPr
ovin
cial
boun
dary
Dis
trict
boun
dary
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
22
2. FINDINGS BY PROVINCE
2.1. NORTH-EASTERN REGION BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE Interviews with the selected village headmen indicated that cultivation level in 2010 is low as a result of effective information campaigns against opium cultivation and eradication in 2009. In 2009, opium cultivation in Badakhshan increased sharply by 179%. It is expected to remain stable in 2010. The opium cultivation is expected to increase moderately in Baharak, Tagab and Khash districts, while there could be a slight decrease in Faizabad and Wardooz districts. The situation will be clearer during the upcoming spring cultivation season (March/April 2010).
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 557Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time End of June Security situation Good
TAKHAR PROVINCERespondents in all districts reported no change in opium cultivation in 2010 and it is expected that Takhar remains poppy-free in 2010. Even though this province falls on a major trafficking route to Tajikistan (via the Chah Ab, Yangi Qala, Darqad and Rustaq districts).
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Mid-June Security situation Good
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010
23
KUNDUZ PROVINCERespondents across all districts reported no change in opium cultivation in 2009 and it is likely that it will remain poppy-free.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Good
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2.2. EASTERN REGION NANGARHAR PROVINCE There could be moderate decrease in opium cultivation in Nangarhar province and the cultivation level seems to be low. The province can once again remain poppy-free with effective eradication efforts.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 294Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Poor
KUNAR PROVINCE Opium cultivation in 2010 is expected to further decrease as it did in 2009. Low cultivation in Kunar province is attributed to pressure by the Governor as well as to high prices of food grains and low prices of opium. Main opium poppy growing districts in Kunar are Asadabad, Barkunar, Nari, Sirkanay and Chawkay.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 164
Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Poor
LAGHMAN PROVINCE Opium cultivation in Laghman province is expected to remain stable at low levels in 2010. Low cultivation in Laghman province is attributed to pressure by the Governor as well as to high prices of food grains and low prices of opium. In 2009 Qarghayi and Mihtarlam were the main poppy-cultivating districts.
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Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 135
Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level Insignificant Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of April Security situation Poor
NURISTAN PROVINCE Nuristan is located at a high elevation and is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 like in 2009.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of April Security situation Poor
KAPISA PROVINCE Kapisa is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 as in 2009.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May / early July Security situation Poor
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NORTHERN REGION
BAGHLAN PROVINCE Baghlan was poppy-free in 2009, however it is expected that there will be a moderate increase in opium cultivation in Baghlan-I-Jadeed, Dahana-I-Ghuri, Deh Salah and Pul-I-Hisar districts. The province could become poppy-free if spring opium cultivation is prevented.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Moderate increase Cultivation level Insignificant Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time End of May to mid-June Security situation Good (Poor at few places)
BAMYAN PROVINCE Bamyan province is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 like in 2009.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late July Security situation Good
BALKH PROVINCE Balkh province is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 like in 2009 and 2008. This trend may be attributed to successful campaigns by the Government against opium cultivation.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time End of April Security situation Good
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FARYAB PROVINCE Faryab became poppy-free in 2009 from 291 ha opium cultivation in 2008. In 2010 it is expected to moderately increase in opium cultivation in districts of Bil Chiragh, Gurziwan and Kohistan.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Moderate increase Cultivation level Insignificant Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Good (Poor at few places)
JAWZJAN PROVINCE Jawzjan province was not a significant opium poppy-growing area until 2002. From 2002 to 2006, however, cultivation increased sharply. In 2009, the province was poppy-free, and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 as well.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn and spring Expected main harvest time Late May Security situation Good (Poor at few places)
SAMANGAN PROVINCE Samangan province was poppy-free in 2007, 2008 and 2009. It is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Rain-fed and irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time End of July Security situation Good
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SARI PUL PROVINCE Sari Pul province was poppy-free in 2008 and 2009. However, in 2010, there could be a moderate increase in cultivation in the districts of Kohistanat and Sayyad.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free
Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Moderate increase Cultivation level Low Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Good (Poor at few places)
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CENTRAL REGION
GHAZNI PROVINCE Ghazni province has been poppy-free since 2005. ORAS results suggest that the province will remain poppy-free in 2010 as well.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late July Security situation Very poor
KHOST PROVINCE
Khost province has been poppy-free since 2007 and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 as well.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late May Security situation Poor
LOGAR PROVINCE Logar province has been poppy-free since 2005 and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010..
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring/autumn Expected main harvest time May/June Security situation Poor
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PAKTIKA PROVINCE Paktika province has been poppy-free since 2004 and the same trend is expected to continue in 2009.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time June Security situation Poor
PAKTYA PROVINCE Paktya province has been poppy-free since 2005 and the same trend is expected to continue in 2010.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time June Security situation Poor
PARWAN PROVINCE Parwan has been poppy-free since 2007 and it is expected to stay poppy-free in 2010 as well.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Good
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PANJSHIR PROVINCE Panjshir province has always been poppy-free and it is expected to maintain the same status in 2010.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time May Security situation Very good
WARDAK PROVINCE Wardak has been poppy-free since 2006 and it is expected to remain so in 2010.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May/early July Security situation Very poor
KABUL PROVINCE There was 57% reduction in opium cultivation in Kabul province in 2009. The cultivation in 2010 is likely to remain stable. There is only one district namely Sarobi where opium is cultivated.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 132Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level Insignificant Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Late May Security situation Very good
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SOUTHERN REGION KANDAHAR PROVINCE There was an increase in opium cultivation in Kandahar province in 2009 (35%). In 2010, cultivation level is expected to remain stable. The cultivation level would remain high. The main opium cultivation districts in 2009 were Khakrez, Miya Nishin, Nesh, Panjwayee, Zhari and Shah Walikot.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 19,811 Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level High Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of May Security situation Very Poor
HILMAND PROVINCE Cultivation level decreased in 2009 to around 69,833 ha as compared to 103,590 ha in 2008. In 2010, cultivation level is expected to remain stable. The main opium cultivation districts in 2009 were Bagran, Garmser (Hazarjuft), Kajaki, Lashkar Gah, Musa Qala, Nad Ali, Naway-i-Saraj, and Nawzad.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 69,833 Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level High Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of May Security situation Very poor
URUZGAN PROVINCE Uruzgan has traditionally been one of Afghanistan’s major opium poppy-growing provinces. Opium cultivation reduced slightly in 2009 from 9,939 ha in 2008 to 9,224 ha in 2009. In 2010 cultivation is expected to moderately increase in the districts of Shahidi Hassas and Tirinkot.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 9,224
Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate increase Cultivation level High Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Very poor
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ZABUL PROVINCE In 2009 there was a decrease of 51% in opium cultivation in Zabul province and it is further expected to moderately decrease in 2010. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2009 were Kakar (Khak-e-Afghan) , Mizan Day Chopan, Qalat, Shahjoy, Tarnak wa Jaldak, Shinkay, Shamulzayi, Naw Bahar, and Arghandab.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 1,144
Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Very poor
DAY KUNDI PROVINCE In 2009 Day Kundi experienced an increase of 32% in opium cultivation; however it is expected to decrease in 2010. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2009 were Gizab, Ishtarlay, Kiti and Miramor.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 3,002 Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time July Security situation Poor
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WESTERN REGION
HIRAT PROVINCE In 2009 there was an increase in opium cultivation in Hirat province (109%). In 2010, a moderate decrease is expected in opium cultivation in the province. The level of opium cultivation should continue to remain low in 2010 and it could become poppy-free if effective poppy eradication measures are implemented.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 556Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May/late June Security situation Good
FARAH PROVINCE Opium cultivation decreased by 17% in 2009 compared to 2008. In 2010, opium cultivation is expected to decrease in all the opium growing districts namely Bala Buluk, Bakwa, Khaki Safed, Pur Chaman, Pusht Rod, Gulistan, Farah, Qalay-I-Kah, Shib Koh, Anar Dara and Lash Wa Jauwayn. However the cultivation level would remain high in the province
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 12,405 Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level High Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Early May Security situation Very Poor
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NIMROZ PROVINCEIn 2009 there was a decrease of in opium cultivation. In 2010, opium cultivation is expected to moderately decrease further in the opium growing districts namely Khash Rod, Asl-i-Chakhansur Chahar Burja and Chakhansur. The level of cultivation would be low. However, Nimroz will continue to play an important role in trafficking given its location at the border with Iran and Pakistan.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 428
Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Very Poor
GHOR PROVINCE Ghor province was poppy-free in 2009 and is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010. Ghor is one of the main opium-trafficking provinces.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Good (Poor at few places.)
BADGHIS PROVINCE In 2009 there was a strong increase in opium cultivation (822%) compared to 2008 in Badghis province. In 2010 however, a moderate decrease is expected in the province. The cultivation level would remain high. The main poppy growing districts are Jaywand and Bala Murghab.
Opium cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 5,411 Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level High Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Mid-June Security situation Good (Poor in one district)
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3. METHODOLOGY
The Winter Opium Rapid Assessment, including training and deployment, was conducted from 6 December 2008 to 7 January 2010 by 86 local field surveyors. The survey was jointly planned and implemented by the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics (MCN) of the Government of Afghanistan and UNODC.
Sampling framework
A total of 547 villages in 188 districts were selected across all poppy growing provinces, however only 536 villages could be surveyed.
The villages were selected from sampled villages of the 2009 village survey using a systematic random selection technique. No sampling was done for the 12 provinces that have been poppy-free for many years (Logar, Paktiya. Paktika, Panjshir, Ghazni, Wardak, Parwan, Kundus, Balkh, Nuristan, Bamyan and Khost).
The design and size of the sample facilitated the establishment of cultivation trends; the sample is not designed for calculating quantitative areas or production estimates. In addition to the sample villages, the surveyors, using their knowledge of the local situation, visited other areas in the province to complement their assessment both of opium cultivation trends and the security situation throughout the province.
Training of surveyors and data collection
The surveyors were selected on the basis of a written test, their experience in conducting opium poppy surveys, knowledge of local customs and their acceptance by local communities. During the training period, a total nine survey coordinators and 86 surveyors were trained in the use of the survey form and survey techniques.
The surveyors conducted structured interviews with the headmen of selected villages in all provinces. UNODC and MCN coordinators monitored data quality and the progress of the survey closely.
ORAS training in Eastern region ORAS monitoring in Eastern region
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ORAS training in Southern region ORAS training of the trainers in Kabul
Debriefing
At the end of the survey, surveyors were debriefed by survey coordinators, reporting on their findings in the areas they had visited and providing an assessment of various factors that influence opium cultivation. The debriefing information was also used to understand the socio-political situation; difficulties encountered in conducting the survey; the level of control exercised by Governors over their respective provinces; the presence of anti-Government elements and the resulting impact on opium cultivation; corruption etc.
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ANNEX 1: Cultivation levels from 2005 to 2009 and expected trends in 2010
*Due to administrative boundary changes, the 2009 estimates for Farah and Nimroz were calculated considering parts of Khash Rod district, the main cultivating district in Nimroz, as being part of Farah province. The 2008 figures include all of Khash Rod district in Nimroz province.
A province is defined as poppy-free when it is estimated to have less than 100 ha of opium cultivation.