Afghanistan Opium Survey 2010 - United Nations … Opium Survey 2010 February 2010 Government of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics ABBREVIATIONS AGE Anti Government Elements

Winter Rapid Assessment

AfghanistanOpium Survey 2010

Feb

ruary

2010

Government of AfghanistanMinistry of Counter Narcotics

ABBREVIATIONS

AGE Anti Government Elements GPS Global Positioning System ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) ORA Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2010 Afghanistan Opium Survey and to the preparation of this report:

Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Dr. Mohammad Zafar (Deputy Minister), Mohammad Ibrahim Azhar (Deputy Minister) Mir Abdullah (Deputy Director of Survey and Monitoring Directorate) Survey Coordinators: Eshaq Masumi (Central Region), Abdul Mateen (Eastern Region), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Western Region), Fida Mohammad (Northern Region), Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi (North-Eastern Region), Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Database supervisor), Mohammad Ajmal (Data entry), Sahar (Data entry), Mohammad Hakim Hayat (Data entry).

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul) Jean-Luc Lemahieu (Country Representative), Ashita Mittal (Deputy Representative, Programme),Kelly Smith (Deputy Representative, Operations), Devashish Dhar (International Project Coordinator), Ziauddin Zaki (National Project Coordinator), Abdul Mannan Ahmadzai (Survey Officer), Noor Mohammad Sadiq (Database Developer) Remote sensing analysts: Ahmad Jawid Ghiasee and Sayed Sadat Mehdi Eradication reporters: Ramin Sobhi and Zia Ulhaq

Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (Eastern Region), Abdul Jalil (Northern Region), Abdul Qadir Palwal (Southern Region), Fawad Alahi (Western Region), Mohammad Rafi (North-Eastern Region), Rahimullah Omar (Central Region), Sayed Ahmad (Southern Region), Abdul Rahim Marikh (Eastern Region), Fardin Osmani (Northern Region)

Provincial Coordinators: Fazal Mohammad Fazli (Southern Region), Mohammad Alam Ghalib (Eastern Region), Altaf Hussain Joya (Western Region), Mohammed Alem Yaqubi (North-Eastern Region), Lutfurhaman Lutfi (Northern Region)

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Angela Me (Chief, Statistics and Surveys Section-SASS), Martin Raithelhuber (Programme Officer), Philip Davis (Statistician), Coen Bussink (GIS Expert) (all SASS), Suzanne Kunnen (Public Information Assistant, Studies and Threat Analysis Section), Dorien Braam (Intern).

The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors, who often faced difficult security conditions.

UNODC’s illicit crop monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the Governments of Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States of America.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................. 1

1. GENERAL FINDINGS............................................................................................................ 2

1.1. DRIVING FORCES BEHIND OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS IN 2010................. 91.2. NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM........................................................... 111.3. CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR OPIUM CULTIVATION................................ 111.4. AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE ................................................................................ 111.5. FIELD SECURITY DURING ORAS IMPLEMENTATION........................................ 121.6. ERADICATION AND AWARENESS .......................................................................... 121.7. PRICES........................................................................................................................... 13

2. FINDINGS BY PROVINCE ................................................................................................. 22

2.1. NORTH-EASTERN REGION ............................................................................................... 22BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE.................................................................................................... 22TAKHAR PROVINCE .............................................................................................................. 22KUNDUZ PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 23

2.2. EASTERN REGION ............................................................................................................ 24NANGARHAR PROVINCE ...................................................................................................... 24KUNAR PROVINCE ................................................................................................................ 24LAGHMAN PROVINCE........................................................................................................... 24NURISTAN PROVINCE........................................................................................................... 25KAPISA PROVINCE ................................................................................................................ 25

NORTHERN REGION................................................................................................................ 26BAGHLAN PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 26BAMYAN PROVINCE.............................................................................................................. 26BALKH PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 26FARYAB PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 27JAWZJAN PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 27SAMANGAN PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 27SARI PUL PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 28

CENTRAL REGION ................................................................................................................... 29GHAZNI PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 29KHOST PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 29LOGAR PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 29PAKTIKA PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 30PAKTYA PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 30PARWAN PROVINCE.............................................................................................................. 30PANJSHIR PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 31WARDAK PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 31KABUL PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 31

SOUTHERN REGION ................................................................................................................ 32KANDAHAR PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 32HILMAND PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 32URUZGAN PROVINCE ........................................................................................................... 32ZABUL PROVINCE ................................................................................................................. 33DAY KUNDI PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 33

WESTERN REGION................................................................................................................... 34HIRAT PROVINCE .................................................................................................................. 34FARAH PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 34NIMROZ PROVINCE............................................................................................................... 35GHOR PROVINCE .................................................................................................................. 35BADGHIS PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 35

3. METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................. 36

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment 2010

Maps

Map 1: Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by province) ………………… 3

Map 2: Expected opium cultivation level in 2010 (by province) ………………….. 4

Map 3: Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by district) ………………….. 5

Map 4: Regional grouping of provinces for opium poppy survey in Afghanistan ... 6

Map 5: Opium poppy planting time ……………………………………………….. 16

Map 6: Opium poppy flowering time ………………….…………………………… 17

Map 7: Opium poppy harvesting time ………………... …………………………… 18

Map 8: Dry opium prices (US$) ……………………………………………………. 19

Map 9: Sampling frame and selected villages.…………………………………….. 20

Map 10: Cultivation trend vs. security situation.………………………………….. 21


1

A year of consolidation

Executive Summary

After a major drop in opium cultivation (one third) over the past two years, UNODC projects a stable crop in Afghanistan in 2010.

The majority of the 20 Afghan provinces that were poppy-free in 2009 will remain so this year. Yet, three provinces (Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul, all in the north) risk showing the beginning of a trend reversal, with a minimal increase in cultivation in the districts with higher insecurity. Five other provinces (Kunar, Nangarhar, Kabul, Laghman and Badakhshan), not poppy-free so far, are also expected to have negligible amounts of poppies.

All considered, with appropriate local community-inspired measures – such as shura-driven campaigns, governor-led eradication, and development assistance – up to 25 Afghan provinces could become poppy-free in 2010. Further progress in the reduction of drug cultivation (hectares) in Afghanistan is within reach.

Against the recent trend of ever higher productivity in the country-side, agricultural conditions in Afghanistan are expected to deteriorate in 2010, because of bad weather. Lower opium yields should also reduce the volume (tons) of opium produced, continuing the decline that has characterized the past three years.

Why is all this happening? Since 2007 market forces have played a major role in influencing farmers’ decisions against opium cultivation. This is under threat as the price of licit crops (especially wheat at -43%) is falling faster than that of (dry) opium (-6%). Yet the reversal is not imminent: in the south-west, where most of the opium is grown, a quarter of farmers cited low prices and low yields as the main reasons for not growing opium this year.

Relative price trends are only part of the story. Good governance and control of the territory are vital factors to uphold the law. In the more stable (north-western) provinces most farmers (61%) refrained from growing opium in 2010 “because it is illegal”. This figure is significantly lower (39%) in the south-west where “governance is poorer and insecurity higher”. Actually, the strongest correlation is between insurgency and cultivation. The survey indicates that almost 80% of villages with very poor security conditions grew poppy, while opium only grows in 7% of villages unaffected by violence.

As stated by President Karzai at the London Conference, the Afghan authorities must show leadership and ownership to wean Afghanistan’s farmers off the world’s deadliest drug. While it is essential to tackle the problem where it is most acute (in the south), particular attention should be given to the eight swing provinces that are on the verge of becoming poppy -free. This would turn the recent improvement (2008-09) into a sustainable longer term trend.


2

1. GENERAL FINDINGS Following the 22 % reduction in opium cultivation in 2009 (123,000 ha), the Opium Winter Rapid Assessment (ORAS) anticipates an overall stable opium cultivation in Afghanistan in 2010.1

Four provinces, Uruzgan, Faryab, Baghlan and Sari Pul are likely to show a moderate increase in opium cultivation.

The twenty provinces reported to be poppy-free in 2009 are likely to be reduced to only 17 in 2010. The assessment indicates that three provinces, Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul, which were poppy-free in 2009, will not be poppy-free in 2010 unless timely eradication is implemented or if the current drought-like conditions persist.

A moderate decrease in opium cultivation is expected in Kunar, Nangarhar, Badghis, Farah, Hirat, Nimroz, Day Kundi and Zabul provinces. Kunar and Nangarhar can be poppy-free if timely eradication is implemented.

The opium cultivation is expected to remain stable in Kabul, Laghman, Badakhshan, Hilmand and Kandahar provinces. Kabul, Laghman and Badakhshan can be poppy-free if timely eradication is implemented. However, cultivation would remain very high in Hilmand and high in Kandahar.

Overall, the cultivation of opium in Afghanistan is likely to remain stable in 2010 but the number of poppy-free provinces may decrease. However, if timely poppy eradication measures are implemented and/or drought-like conditions prevail, a total of 25 provinces, an increase of 5 compared to 2009, could be poppy-free in 2010.

Table 1 Opium cultivation trends at a glance

1 The 2010 Opium Winter Assessment report is based on a relatively small sample of villages and the results are indicative, only.


3

Map 1 Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by province)

TURKMENISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN

IND

IAIN

DIA

IRAN

IRAN

0

Jaw

zjan

Hira

t

Fara

h

Gho

r

Hilm

and

Nim

roz

Kand

ahar

Bada

khsh

an

Gha

zni

Balk

h

Zabu

l

Fary

abBa

ghla

n

Badg

his

Pakt

ika

Sari

Pul

Takh

ar

Bam

yan

Day

Kun

di

Uru

zgan

War

dak

Nur

ista

n

Kund

uz

Sam

anga

n

Pakt

ya

Parw

an

Loga

r

Kuna

r

Kabu

l

Nan

garh

ar

Khos

t

Panj

shir La

ghm

anKa

pisa

0

0

0

0

0556

0

0

0

557

0

0

428

69833

19811

0

124050

0

0

5411

0

1144

0

0

3002

0

9224

294

164

132

135

0

72°E

72°E

69°E

69°E

66°E

66°E

63°E

63°E

36°N

36°N

33°N

33°N

30°N

30°N

Afg

hani

stan

Opi

umR

apid

Ass

essm

entS

urve

y,20

10:E

xpec

ted

opiu

mpo

ppy

culti

vatio

ntr

ends

(by

prov

ince

)

Sou

rce:

MC

N-

UN

OD

CA

fgha

nis

tan

Opi

um

Rap

idA

sses

me

ntS

urve

y,2

010

(http

://w

ww

.un

odc.

org/

uno

dc/e

n/cr

op_m

onito

ring

.htm

l)N

ote:

The

boun

dari

esan

dn

ames

show

nan

dth

ed

esig

natio

nsus

edon

this

ma

pdo

noti

mpl

yof

ficia

lend

ors

em

ent

orac

cept

anc

eb

yth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Geo

grap

hic

Pro

ject

ion

Dat

um:W

GS

840

100

200

300

50Km

Lege

ndCu

ltiva

tion

tren

das

com

pare

dto

2009

Popp

yFr

ee

Mod

erat

ede

crea

se

Stab

le

Mod

erat

ein

crea

se

2009

Cul

tivat

ion

leve

l(ha

)

Prov

inci

albo

unda

ryIn

tern

atio

nalb

ound

ary


4

Map 2 Expected opium cultivation level in 2010 (by province)

TURKMENISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN

IND

IAIN

DIA

IRA

NIR

AN

Kund

uz

Hira

t

Fara

h

Gho

r

Hilm

and

Nim

roz

Kand

ahar

Bada

khsh

an

Gha

zni

Balk

h

Zabu

l

Fary

abBa

ghla

n

Badg

his

Pakt

ika

Sari

Pul

Takh

ar

Bam

yan

Day

Kun

di

Jaw

zjan

Uru

zgan

War

dak

Nur

ista

n

Sam

anga

n

Pakt

ya

Parw

an

Loga

r

Kuna

r

Kabu

lN

anga

rhar

Khos

t

Panj

shir La

ghm

anKa

pisa

75°E

75°E

72°E

72°E

69°E

69°E

66°E

66°E

63°E

63°E

36°N

36°N

33°N

33°N

30°N

30°N

Afg

hani

stan

Opi

umR

apid

Ass

essm

entS

urve

y,20

10:E

xpec

ted

opiu

mpo

ppy

culti

vatio

nle

vels

(by

prov

ince

)

Sou

rce:

MC

N-

UN

OD

CA

fgha

nis

tan

Opi

um

Rap

idA

sses

me

ntS

urve

y,2

010(

http

://w

ww

.uno

dc.o

rg/u

nod

c/en

/cro

p_m

onito

ring

.htm

l)N

ote:

The

boun

dari

esan

dn

ames

show

nan

dth

ed

esig

natio

nsus

edon

this

ma

pdo

noti

mpl

yof

ficia

lend

ors

em

ent

orac

cept

anc

eb

yth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Geo

grap

hic

Pro

ject

ion

Dat

um:W

GS

840

100

200

300

50Km

Lege

ndEx

pect

edcu

ltiva

tion

leve

ls

Pop

pyfr

ee

Insi

gnifi

cant

Low

Mod

erat

e

Hig

h

Very

high

Pro

vinc

ialb

ound

ary

Inte

rnat

iona

lbou

ndar

y


5

Map 3 Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by district)

INDIA

INDIA

TURKMENISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN

IRA

NIR

AN

Balk

h

Hira

t

Fara

h

Gho

r

Hilm

and

Nim

roz

Kand

ahar

Bada

khsh

an

Gha

zni

Zabu

l

Fary

abBa

ghla

n

Badg

his

Pakt

ika

Sari

Pul

Takh

ar

Bam

yan

Day

Kun

di

Jaw

zjan

Uru

zgan

War

dak

Nur

ista

n

Kund

uz

Sam

anga

n

Pakt

ya

Parw

an

Loga

r

Kuna

r

Kabu

l

Nan

garh

ar

Khos

t

Panj

shir La

ghm

anKa

pisa

Re

g

Dis

hu

Ch

ahar

Bur

jak

Wa

khan

Adr

ask

an

Ga

rmS

er

Jaw

and

Ana

rD

ara

h

Gu

lran

Gh

ory

an

Gu

lista

n

Na

wu

r

Shi

ndan

d

Re

g-i-

Kh

anN

ish

in

Yaka

wla

ng

Na

dA

li

Ob

e

Giz

ab

Go

ma

l

Koh

ista

nat

Qa

dis

Da

ma

n

Wa

sher

Asl

-i-C

hakh

ansu

r

Mar

uf

Pan

jwa

yee

Pur

Cha

ma

n

Sha

hrak

Kha

shR

od

Tula

k

No

wz

ad

Bal

aB

ulu

k

Khu

lm

Wa

ras

Kiti

Spi

nB

old

ak

Do

La

inah

Pas

aban

dTa

ywa

ra

Ch

ora

h

Sho

raba

k

Wa

rsa

j

Arg

his

tan

Fers

i

Shi

ghna

n

Qa

isar

Bal

khab

Lash

-i-J

uw

ayn

Bag

hran

Sag

har

Enj

il

Du

shi

Qa

la-i

-Ka

h

Bal

aM

urg

hab

Kira

nw

aM

unja

n

Kaj

aki

Mai

wa

nd

Shi

nkai

Bak

wa

h

Koh

san

Shi

bK

oh

Kaj

ran

Jag

huri

Na

wa

De

lara

m

Ru

staq

Man

dol

MirA

mo

r

Pan

jab

Jurm

Koh

ista

n

Wo

rM

am

ay

Alm

ar

She

me

lza

i

Kar

rukh

Ne

sh

Khe

dir

Tag

ab

Lalw

aS

arja

nga

l

Ro

i-Do-

Ab

Ch

imta

l

Turw

o

Arg

o

Kuf

Ab

Do

wla

tab

ad

Zari

Yam

gan

Sha

hW

ali

Kot

Zayb

ak

Qa

la-i

-Zal

Ajri

stan

Sai

ghan

Par

yan

Gir

o

Gu

rziw

an

Gh

ora

k

Sho

lgar

ah

Qa

rqin

Jalr

ez

Tala

hw

aB

arfa

k

Miz

an

Bar

mal

Shu

had

a

Ch

iisht

-i-S

har

if

Say

yad

Do

wla

tya

r

Azr

aIs

hta

rla

y

Shi

rinTa

ga

b

Sho

rTe

pa

San

g-i-T

akh

t

Kah

ma

rd

Bur

ka

Qa

raB

agh

Khi

njan

Kal

dar

Do

wla

tab

ad

Ra

ghis

tan

Zhir

e

And

ar

Qa

ram

Qul

Bal

kh

Ch

aghc

hara

n(P

rovi

ncia

lC

ent

er)

Pas

htun

Ko

t

Kan

g

Zen

dah

Jan

Mal

ista

n

Gh

orm

ach

Sur

ub

i

Sha

hJo

i

Kha

kre

z

Mar

kaz

-i-B

ehs

ud

Kha

sU

ruzg

an

Ge

lan

Sha

hris

tan

Jaji

Muq

ur

She

bar

Ab

Ka

ma

ri

Dih

raw

ud

Fark

har

Da

rah

-i-S

oof

-i-B

ala

Bag

hlan

-i-J

ade

ed

Mus

aQ

ala

Na

wa

-i-B

aruk

zai

Bar

g-i

-Ma

tal

Da

ych

opan

Khw

aja

hD

uKo

h

Muq

ur

Shi

ki

Kha

k-i-

Sa

fed

Arg

ha

ndab

Fara

h(P

rovi

ncia

lCe

nte

r)

Kus

hk(R

aba

t-i-S

an

gi)

Kam

desh

Faiz

abad

Wa

zahk

hw

ah

Min

gajik

Kis

hin

deh

Kho

stw

aF

iring

Go

sfa

ndi

Sha

hidi

Ha

sas

And

arab

Kis

him

Da

rah

Wa

rdoo

j

Ab

Ba

nd

Kus

k-i-K

ohna

h

Kha

nab

ad

Na

wB

ah

ar

Na

hre

en

Na

her-

i-S

ara

j

Bil

Ch

iragh

Pas

htun

Zar

gh

unP

ul-i-

Ala

m

Esh

kas

him

Nijr

ab

Jan

iKh

el

Wa

ygal

Khu

ram

wa

Sa

rB

agh

Ban

gi

Ch

ahab

Tash

kan

Du

Ab

Niiz

am

-i-S

hah

id(G

uzar

ah)

Da

imir

dad Say

yid

abad

Qu

rgha

n

Na

hr-i

-Sh

ahi

Da

hana

-i-G

hu

ri

Ch

ahar

Sad

ah

San

gcha

rak

Kha

mya

b

Da

rah

-i-S

uf-i

-Pa

yin

Ch

ahar

Da

rah

Ne

rkh

Sha

ykh

Ali

Ha

zra

tiIm

amS

ahib

Tag

ab

Pul

-i-H

isar

Sur

kh-

i-P

ars

aShi

nwa

ri

Ch

ahar

Ken

t

No

orG

ram

De

hY

ak

Mar

dya

n

Tarn

ak

wa

Jald

ak

Khw

aha

n

Mar

mul

Urg

un

Sar

iP

ul(

Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

His

ah-i-

Aw

alB

eh

sud

Esh

kam

ish

Om

na

Jag

hatu

She

berg

han

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Ch

ak-i

-Wa

rda

k

Ch

al

Sal

ang

Qu

shTe

pah

Miy

aN

esh

inQ

ala

t(P

rovi

nci

alC

ent

er)

Atg

har

Koh

ista

n

Da

ray

im

Sha

hriB

uzu

rg

Bam

yan

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Yaw

an

Fayr

oz

Nak

hch

eer

Ha

zra

t-i-S

ulta

n

Kho

shi

Tirin

Kot

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Da

shti

-i-A

rch

i

Sar

Row

za

Ayb

ak

(Pro

vinc

ialC

en

ter)

Dila

hw

aK

hw

osh

aman

d

Kab

ul

Da

rwa

z-i-

Ba

la(n

esa

y)

Koh

-i-S

afi

Na

ma

kA

b

Kal

afg

an

Da

rqa

d

Kha

rwar

Muh

am

ma

dA

gha

h

Ali

Ab

ad

Kha

naq

a

Kak

arK

ak-

eA

fgha

n

Sar

-i-P

ol

Da

rwa

z-i

Pay

in(m

am

ay)

Arg

ha

ndab

De

hSab

z

Wa

gha

z

Kha

niC

hah

arB

agh

Yafta

l-i-S

ufla

Yosu

fKh

el

Ala

Sa

i

Sur

ub

iKha

k-i-

Jaba

r

Bag

ramDe

hS

ala

h

And

khoy

Ziru

k

Wa

ma

Sya

hgird

(Gho

rban

d)

Soz

ma

Qa

la

Kha

sh

Arg

ha

njK

hwah

Ra

shid

an

Ch

ahar

Bol

ak

Bah

arak

Pus

htR

od

San

gin

Qa

la

Giy

an

Ch

ark

h

Pag

hman

Mat

aK

han

His

sa-i-

Aw

al(K

hin

j)S

hutu

l

Sam

kan

i

Bag

ram

i

Khw

aja

Gh

ar

Say

yid

Kar

am

Zarg

hun

Sh

ahr

Lash

kar

gah

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Zan

akh

an

Hir

at

Nik

a

Bah

arak

Zara

nj(P

rovi

nci

alC

ente

r)

Khw

aja

hH

ijran

(Jal

gah

)Fi

ring

wa

Gh

aru

Da

shti

Qal

a

Kan

dah

ar(P

rovi

ncla

lCen

ter)

Qa

la-i

-No

w(P

rovi

nci

alC

ente

r)

Laja

Ah

ma

dK

he

lN

ili(P

rov

inci

alC

ente

r)

Yang

iQa

la

Bah

ram

-eS

hahi

d(J

agha

tu)

Khw

aja

hS

abz

Pos

hiW

ali

Da

ndP

ata

n

Est

alef

Jan

iKh

el

Go

zarg

ah-i-

No

or

Sha

hrak

-i-H

aira

tan

Jala

lab

ad

75°E

75°E

72°E

72°E

69°E

69°E

66°E

66°E

63°E

63°E

36°N

36°N

33°N

33°N

30°N

30°N

Afg

hani

stan

Opi

umR

apid

Ass

essm

entS

urve

y,20

10:E

xpec

ted

opiu

mpo

ppy

culti

vatio

ntr

ends

(by

dist

rict)

Sou

rce:

MC

N-

UN

OD

CA

fgha

nis

tan

Opi

um

Rap

idA

sses

me

ntS

urve

y,2

010(

http

://w

ww

.uno

dc.o

rg/u

nod

c/en

/cro

p_m

onito

ring

.htm

l)N

ote:

The

boun

dari

esan

dn

ames

show

nan

dth

ed

esig

natio

nsus

edon

this

ma

pdo

noti

mpl

yof

ficia

lend

ors

em

ent

orac

cept

anc

eb

yth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Nur

ista

n Kun

ar

Kab

ul

wan Lo

gar

Kho

st

Pakt

iya

Nan

garh

ar

Panj

shir

Lagh

man

Kap

isa

Man

dol

Suru

bi Jaji

Azra

Nar

i

Alin

gar

Nijr

ab

Way

gal

Zurm

at

Du

Ab

Kam

desh

Taga

b

Qar

ghay

ee

Noo

rG

ram

Achi

n

Khin

jan Sa

lang

Gos

hta La

lpoo

r

Bagr

am

Kam

a

Dar

ah

Pul-i

-Ala

m

Hes

arak

Alis

heng

Shin

war

i

Khug

yani

Khos

hi

Kabu

lR

odat

Koh-

i-Saf

i

Dow

latS

hah

Sher

zad

Muh

amm

adAg

hah

Kot

Deh

Sab

z

Cha

paD

ara

Gha

ziA

bad

AlaS

aiD

ara-

i-Pec

h

Khak

-i-Ja

bar

Bak

Wam

a

Deh

Bal

a

Behs

ud

Noo

rga

l

Shut

ul

Nur

ista

nP

aroo

n(P

rovi

ncia

lCen

ter)

His

sa-i-

Aw

al(K

hinj

)

Surk

hR

ud

Ahm

adab

adSa

mka

ni

Bagr

ami

Pach

irw

agam

Sayy

idK

aram

Khas

Kun

arKu

zkun

ar

Pary

an

Jaji

Mai

dan

Dur

Baba

Naz

yan

Saba

ri(Y

aqub

i)

Anda

rab

Cho

wke

y

Una

ba

Laja

Ahm

adK

hel

Shig

alw

aSh

elta

nW

atah

poor

Cha

rkh

Dan

gam

SarK

ani

Meh

tarL

am(P

rovi

ncia

lCen

ter)

Pul-i

-His

ar

Cha

parh

ar

Mus

aK

hel(

Man

gal)

Shin

war

Qar

aB

agh

Ruk

hah

Bati

Kot

Dan

dP

atan

Esta

lef

Jani

Khe

l

Mus

ahiKo

hBa

nd

Moh

man

dD

ara

Mar

aw

arah

Gul

ara

Tera

yzai

(Ali

She

r)

BarK

unar

(Asm

ar)

Jaba

luss

araj

Kira

nw

aM

unja

nEa

ster

nre

gion

Geo

grap

hic

Pro

ject

ion

Dat

um:W

GS

840

100

200

300

50Km

Lege

ndCu

ltiva

tion

tren

das

com

pare

dto

2009

Incr

ease

stab

le

Stro

ngde

crea

se

Dec

reas

e

Popp

yfre

e

Dis

trict

boun

dary

Prov

inci

albo

unda

ryIn

tern

atio

nalb

ound

ary


6

Map 4 Regional grouping of provinces for opium surveys in Afghanistan

IRA

NIR

AN

PAKI

STAN

PAKI

STAN

IND

IAIN

DIA

TURK

MEN

ISTA

NTU

RKM

ENIS

TAN

TAJI

KIST

AN

TAJI

KIST

AN

UZBE

KIS

TAN

UZBE

KIS

TAN

Hira

t

Fara

h

Gho

r

Hilm

and

Nim

roz

Kand

ahar

Bada

khsh

an

Balk

h

Gha

zni

Zabu

l

Fary

ab

Pakt

ika

Badg

his

Bagh

lan

Bam

yan

Sari

Pul

Takh

ar

Day

Kun

di

Jaw

zjan

Uru

zgan

War

dak

Nur

ista

n

Kund

uz

Sam

anga

n

Kuna

r

Loga

r Pakt

ya

Kabu

l

Parw

an

Khos

tNan

garh

ar

Panj

shir La

ghm

an

Kapi

sa

Fara

h

Hira

tKa

bul

Kand

ahar

Fayz

abad

Jala

laba

d

Maz

ariS

harif

75°E

75°E

70°E

70°E

65°E

65°E

60°E

60°E 35°N

35°N

30°N

30°N

Reg

iona

lgro

upin

gof

prov

ince

sfo

rthe

opiu

mpo

ppy

surv

eyin

Afg

hani

stan

Sou

rce:

Gov

ern

men

tofA

fgha

nist

an-N

atio

nal

mon

itori

ngsy

ste

mim

plem

ente

dby

UN

OD

CN

ote:

The

boun

dari

esan

dna

me

ssh

own

and

the

des

igna

tions

use

do

nth

ism

ap

do

not

impl

yo

ffici

ale

ndor

sem

ent

orac

cep

tan

ceby

the

Uni

ted

Na

tions

.

Sou

ther

n

Wes

tern

Cen

tral

Nor

ther

n

Eas

tern

Nor

th-e

aste

rn

010

020

050

KmG

CS

WG

S-84

Lege

ndR

egio

nalg

roup

ing

ofpr

ovin

ces

Pro

vinc

ialb

ound

ary

Inte

rnat

iona

lbou

ndar

yM

ain

citie

s

Wes

tern

Sou

ther

n

Nor

ther

n

Nor

th-e

aste

rn

Eas

tern

Cen

tral


7

Table 2 Expected opium cultivation trends in 2010 (by province)

Region Province Cultivation 2009 (ha)

2010 Expected opium cultivation

change

Expected opium

cultivation levels

Ghazni Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Kabul 132 Stable Insignificant Khost Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Logar Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Paktika Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Paktya Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Panjshir Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Parwan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free

Central

Wardak Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Kapisa Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Kunar 164 Moderate decrease Insignificant Laghman 135 Stable Insignificant Nangarhar 294 Moderate decrease Low

Eastern

Nuristan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Baghlan Poppy-free Moderate increase Insignificant Balkh Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Bamyan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Faryab Poppy-free Moderate increase Insignificant Jawzjan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Samangan Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free

Northern

Sari Pul Poppy-free Moderate increase Insignificant Badakhshan 557 Stable Low Kunduz Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free North-easternTakhar Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Day Kundi 3,002 Moderate decrease Moderate Hilmand 69,833 Stable Very high Kandahar 19,811 Stable High Uruzgan 9,224 Moderate increase High

Southern

Zabul 1,144 Moderate decrease Moderate Badghis 5,411 Moderate decrease High Farah 12,405 Moderate decrease High Ghor Poppy-free Poppy-free Poppy-free Hirat 556 Moderate decrease Low

Western

Nimroz 428 Moderate decrease Low Total(Rounded) 123,000 Overall Stable


8

Trends by region

The 2010 ORAS highlights the following key cultivation trends as compared to 2009:

Central region: the entire Central region can become poppy-free if opium cultivation in Surobi district of Kabul province is substantively reduced. Cultivation is stable in Kabul compared to 2009.

Eastern region: Opium cultivation in Eastern region may be moderately reduced. The cultivation level in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces is lower compared to 2009 results, and restricted to mountainous regions. Opium cultivation in Laghman province is reported to be stable. Kapisa and Nuristan would remain poppy-free.

Northern region: The region became poppy-free in 2009. However, Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul show an increase in some of the districts and would not be poppy-free this year. Balkh, Bamyan, Jawzjan and Samangan would remain poppy-free again this year.

North-eastern region: Opium cultivation in Badakhshan would remain stable. This is the only province in North-eastern region where opium has traditionally been cultivated. Takhar and Kunduz are the other two provinces in this region and would remain poppy-free.

Southern region: The main opium cultivating provinces in this region Hilmand and Kandahar would remain stable compared to last year. The rapid assessment of this region shows that it would still remain the largest opium producing region. Hilmand province is expected to retain its status of the largest opium cultivating province.

Western region: There is a likely moderate decrease in opium cultivation in all the provinces in this region. Badghis and Farah would remain a high cultivating province while Hirat and Nimroz would have low cultivation. Ghor province is expected to remain poppy-free.

The three provinces in Northern region, Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul which were poppy-free last year would not be poppy-free this year because of an increase in opium cultivation in some of the districts which may be related to insecurity. Baghlan-I-Jadeed, Dahana-I-Ghuri, Deh Salah and Pul-I-Hisar are the four districts of Baghlan province where there has been increase in opium cultivation. In Faryab province the districts of Bil Chiragh, Gurziwan and Kohistan are expected to cultivate more poppy. In Kohistanat and Sayyad districts of Sari Pul province an increase of cultivation is also reported.

In the winter this year, there has been very little snow in the region and if this condition prevails there would be a lack of water for irrigation. Under such circumstances these provinces could remain poppy-free. The drought like conditions would adversely effect both irrigated and rain-fed opium cultivation.

Although there is a moderate decrease in the trends in opium cultivation in most of the provinces in Western region, as well as Zabul and Day Kundi provinces in the Southern region, the overall cultivation would remain stable in the country because of stable cultivation trends in the provinces with highest cultivation Hilmand and Kandahar. Badghis and Farah also remain provinces with high levels of cultivation, even after a moderate decrease in the cultivation trends this year (2010). This decrease in trends would be balanced by the increase in cultivation in Uruzgan, Baghlan, Faryab and Sari Pul.

The quality and quantity of opium crop in high altitude rain-fed areas of northern Afghanistan will depend on the amount of rainfall during the upcoming spring season.


9

1.1. DRIVING FORCES BEHIND OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS IN 2010

During the 2010 ORAS, village headmen from poppy growing and non-poppy growing villages were asked to state the main reason why the farmers chose to cultivate opium instead of other crops or not cultivate it at all.

Reasons for opium cultivation in 2010

“Higher sales price of poppy as compared to other crops” was the predominant reason (39%) for growing opium. Although the opium price continues to decrease, its level is still higher than other crops and for some farmers, opium continues to be a more lucrative investment than other crops. About 32% of respondents also cited ‘poverty’ as the most dominant reason. Interestingly, in 8% of the responses, the reason for growing opium poppy was the “lack of governmental control”.

Figure 1 Reasons for opium cultivation in 2010 in opium growing villages

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

5%

6%

8%

32%

39%

0% 20% 40%

No market for other crops

Climate conditions suitable

It is a custom

Other

No support from Government

High income from little land

High demand for opium

Lack of Government control

Poverty (provision of basic food and shelter)

High sale price of opium

Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2010

Reasons reported by headmen for not cultivating opium differed between the southern and western region and the rest of the country.

The predominant reasons given by 39% of respondents for not growing poppy in the Southern and Western regions are ‘banned by the Government’, 13% responded with the reason ‘not enough yield’ and 12% mentioned the ‘low sale price of opium’. ‘Cultivating opium is against Islam’, ‘elders and shura’s decision’ and ‘fear of eradication’ were also mentioned, but by fewer headmen.


10

Figure 2 Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2010 (Southern and Western regions)

0.2%

0.2%

1%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

8%

11%

12%

13%

39%

0% 20% 40%

High sale price of w heat

Climate conditions not suitable

High cost of inputs (fertilizer, labors etc.)

Climate conditions not suitbale

Lack of w ater

Lack of experience

Other

Fear of Eradication

Elders and Shura decsion

It is against Islam

Low sale price of opium

Not enough yield

It w as banned by Government

Note: 99% of the total opium of Afghanistan was cultivated in these regions in 2009.

In the rest of the country, 61% of the respondents quoted as most dominant reason for not growing poppy ‘banned by the Government’ compared to only 39 % in the Southern and Western regions. Their second most dominant reason, by 16 % of the respondents was ‘elders and shura’s decision’. ‘low sale price of opium’, ‘cultivating opium is against Islam’ and ‘fear of eradication’ was also cited by a number of respondents.

Figure 3 Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2010 (regions other than Southern and Western)

0.2%

0.3%

1%

1%

4%

5%

5%

7%

16%

61%

0% 32% 64%

Lack of experience

It is harmful for human beings

Climate conditions not suitbale

Not enough yield

Fear of Eradication

It is against Islam

Low sale price of opium

Other

Elders and Shura decsion

It was banned by Government

Note: Only 1% of the total opium of Afghanistan was cultivated in these regions in 2009.


11

1.2. NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM

Of the 536 villages visited, 188 (35 %) reported that they expect to grow opium poppy in 2010. The percentage of poppy-growing villages among those visited varies from region to region. In the Southern and Central region, 60-62 % of the surveyed villages reported planned opium cultivation in 2010. During ORAS 2009, 71% of the villages in Southern region reported opium cultivation.

Table 3 Proportion of opium-growing villages

% of villages surveyed (ORAS 2010) % of villages surveyed (ORAS 2009)

Region No opium

cultivation in 2010

Opiumcultivation in

2010

No opium cultivation in

2009

Opiumcultivation in

2009 Central 40% 60% 99% 1% Eastern 80% 20% 91% 9% North-Eastern 91% 9% 97% 3% Northern 97% 3% 96% 4% Southern 38% 62% 29% 71% Western 61% 39% 65% 35% Total 65% 35% 73% 27%

Note: The ORAS 2010 did not cover the same survey area as the ORAS 2009.Thus, results are not directly comparable.

1.3. CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR OPIUM CULTIVATION

The ORAS 2010 indicates that 14% (down from 18% in ORAS 2009) of the surveyed opium poppy-growing villages received cash advances from external sources to grow opium poppy. Respondents in Badakhshan (14%), Hilmand (11%), Kandahar (27%), Uruzgan (54%) and Zabul (57%) reported that they had received such advances.

1.4. AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE

Of the 536 villages visited, 231 (43%) have received agricultural assistance in the form of seed, fertilizers and irrigation facilities, and 57% reported not to have received such assistance.

By comparison, almost two thirds of the villages, which are expected to have opium cultivation in 2010, had not received agricultural assistance in 2009. This indicates that the provision of agricultural assistance could have a positive effect on the decision to grow or not to grow opium. On the other hand, about 13% of all villages surveyed had received agricultural assistance and still continue to grow opium pointing to the existence of other factors.

Table 4 Agricultural assistance vis-à-vis expected opium cultivation

Opium cultivation expected in 2010

Agricultural assistance received in 2009 No Yes Total

No 35% 22% 57% Yes 30% 13% 43% Total 65% 35% 100%


12

1.5. FIELD SECURITY DURING ORAS IMPLEMENTATION

The survey indicates that approximately 79% of villages with ‘very poor’ security and 66% of those with ‘poor’ security are involved in opium cultivation, as compared to only 20% and 7% of villages with ‘good’ and ‘very good’ security. Security was of general concern in most areas in the Southern region (Hilmand, Uruzgan and Kandahar). In the Western region, Nimroz and Farah provinces had poor security conditions.

Table 5 Security situation vis-à-vis expected opium cultivation

No. of villages surveyed

Security situation No opium cultivation in 2010

Opiumcultivation in

2010

% of villages cultivating

opium poppy

Very poor 13 50 79% Poor 42 82 66% Good 201 49 20% Very good 92 7 7%

1.6. ERADICATION AND AWARENESS

Of the 536 villages surveyed during the ORAS, 188 (35%) have planted opium poppy for the 2010 cultivation season. Of these 188, only 36 villages had experienced opium eradication in 2009. A large majority of those (32 villages) still decided to plant opium despite having experienced eradication in 2009. Whether or not a village has experienced eradication did not seem to have a significant influence on its decision to continue or stop opium cultivation.

Table 6 Eradication in 2009 vis-à-vis expected opium cultivation in 2010

% of villages surveyed

Eradication in 2009


2010

Opiumcultivation in

2010 Total

No 64% 29% 93% Yes 1% 6% 7% Total 65% 35% 100%

An awareness campaign to prevent opium cultivation was conducted in many areas of Afghanistan in October and November 2009. Just over half of the surveyed villages (54%) were reached by awareness campaigns. About half of the villages, which expected to grow opium in 2010, had been reached by an awareness campaign against opium cultivation, and the other half hadn't. Whether or not a village had been reached by an awareness campaign seems to have only limited influence on the decision to grow or not to grow opium.


13

Table 7 Awareness campaign in 2009 vis-à-vis expected opium cultivation in 2010

% of villages surveyed

Awareness campaign


2010

Opiumcultivation in

2010 Total

No 29% 17% 46% Yes 36% 18% 54% Total 65% 35% 100%

1.7. PRICESUNODC collects monthly opium prices from 15 key provinces. In addition to this, the ORAS 2010 collected price information in 536 surveyed villages. The average farm-gate prices of dry opium at the time of the survey were in line with the monthly price report in December 2009. The detailed overview of opium prices is provided based on Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2009.

Figure 4 Regional average price of dry opium collected from traders, January 2005 – December 2009

DRY OPIUM PRICE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-

05Fe

b-05

Mar

-05

Apr-

05M

ay-0

5Ju

n-05

Jul-0

5Au

g-05

Sep-

05O

ct-0

5N

ov-0

5D

ec-0

5Ja

n-06

Feb-

06M

ar-0

6Ap

r-06

May

-06

Jun-

06Ju

l-06

Aug-

06Se

p-06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr-

07M

ay-0

7Ju

n-07

Jul-0

7Au

g-07

Sep-

07O

ct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8Ap

r-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug-

08Se

p-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr-

09M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9Au

g-09

Sep-

09O

ct-0

9N

ov-0

9D

ec-0

9

Month

Pric

e in

(US$

/Kg)

Eastern Southern Western North-eastern Northern

Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2009

Since June 2007, prices of dry opium in the Western and Eastern regions remain higher than the prices in other regions. Increase in prices in the Western region can be attributed to its strategic position in bordering Iran. In the last few months, prices in Southern and Northern region are becoming lower than in other regions. Lower prices in the Southern region can be explained by the availability of opium stocks with the farmers and drug dealers, a result of bumper opium production in 2007 and 2008.


14

Figure 5 Average farm-gate prices for dry opium, September 2004 – December 2009

180

154

222

170

187

161

147

139

123

137

167 17

116

115

214

5 150

149

159

145

134 14

114

014

014

113

913

613

312

5 128

127

121

113

114

115

105

100

101 10

5 108

106

105

103

9891 90

85 8588 88

8386

82 8279

74 73 73 71 7378 79 79

83

91

0

50

100

150

200

250

Sep

-04

Oct

-04

Nov

-04

Dec

-04

Jan-

05Fe

b-05

Mar

-05

Apr

-05

May

-05

Jun-

05Ju

l-05

Aug

-05

Sep

-05

Oct

-05

Nov

-05

Dec

-05

Jan-

06Fe

b-06

Mar

-06

Apr

-06

May

-06

Jun-

06Ju

l-06

Aug

-06

Sep

-06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Aug

-07

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09Ju

l-09

Aug

-09

Sep

-09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Month

Pric

e in

(US$/

Kg)

Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2009

Farmers in Afghanistan usually cultivate crops twice a year in irrigated areas, typically growing maize, rice, vegetables or cotton after harvesting opium or wheat. Some farmers grow cannabis after the first summer harvest. None of Afghanistan’s licit agricultural products can currently match the gross income per hectare from opium, although the difference is not as high as it used to be some years ago.

During ORAS, respondents were asked about the market prices of agricultural commodities. Comparison of prices collected during ORAS 2009 and ORAS 2010 show significant decrease in prices of opium and food grains.

Between December 2009 and December 2010, wheat prices decreased much more than opium prices. Potentially, this development renders opium cultivation more attractive.


15

Table 8 Prices of dry opium and food grains in 2009 and 2010

Price (US$/kg) Product ORAS 2009 ORAS 2010 % change Dry opium 85.16 80.23 -6% Fresh opium 61.74 53.66 -13% Wheat 0.6 0.34 -43% Rice 1.12 1.03 -8% Maize 0.42 0.26 -38%


16

Map 5: Opium poppy planting time

UZBEKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

IRAN

PAKISTAN

INDIA

TURKMENISTAN

Hira

t

Fara

h

Gho

r

Hilm

and

Nim

roz

Kand

ahar

Bada

khsh

an

Gha

zni

Balk

h

Zabu

l

Fary

ab

Bagh

lan

Badg

his

Pakt

ika

Sari

Pul

Takh

ar

Bam

yan

Day

Kund

i

Jaw

zjan

Uru

zgan

War

dak

Nur

ista

n

Kund

uz

Sam

anga

n

Kuna

r

Kabu

l

Loga

r

Khos

tPa

ktya

Parw

an

Nan

garh

ar

Panj

shir

Lagh

man

Kapi

sa

Re

g

Dis

hu

Ch

ahar

Bur

jak

Wa

khan

Adr

ask

an

Ga

rmS

erJaw

and

Ana

rD

ara

h

Gu

lran

Gh

ory

an

Gu

lista

n

Na

wu

r

Shi

ndan

d

Re

g-i-

Kh

anN

ish

in

Yaka

wla

ng

Na

dA

li

Ob

e

Giz

ab

Go

ma

l

Koh

ista

nat

Qa

dis

Da

ma

n

Wa

sher

Asl

-i-C

hakh

ansu

r

Mar

uf

Pan

jwa

yee

Pur

Cha

ma

n

Sha

hrak

Kha

shR

od

Tula

k

No

wz

ad

Bal

aB

ulu

k

Khu

lm

Wa

ras

Kiti

Spi

nB

old

ak

Do

La

inah

Pas

aban

dTa

ywa

ra

Ch

ora

h

Sho

raba

k

Wa

rsa

j

Arg

his

tan

Fers

i

Shi

ghna

n

Qa

isar

Bal

khab

Lash

-i-J

uw

ayn

Bag

hran

Sag

har

Enj

il

Du

shi

Qa

la-i

-Ka

h

Bal

aM

urg

hab

Kira

nw

aM

unja

n

Kaj

aki

Mai

wa

nd

Shi

nkai

Bak

wa

h

Koh

san

Shi

bK

oh

Kaj

ran

Jag

huri

Na

wa

De

lara

m

Ru

staq

Man

dol

MirA

mo

r

Pan

jab

Jurm

Koh

ista

n

Wo

rM

am

ay

Alm

ar

She

me

lza

i

Kar

rukh

Ne

sh

Khe

dir

Tag

ab

Lalw

aS

arja

ngal

Ro

i-Do-

Ab

Ch

imta

l

Turw

o

Arg

o

Kuf

Ab

Do

wla

tab

ad

Zari

Yam

gan

Sha

hW

ali

Kot

Zayb

ak

Ajri

stan

Sai

ghan

Par

yan

Gir

o

Gu

rziw

an

Gh

ora

k

Zurm

at

Sur

ub

i

Sho

lgar

ah

Qa

rqin

Jalr

ez

Tala

hw

aB

arfa

k

Miz

an

Bar

mal

Shu

had

a

Ch

iisht

-i-S

har

if

Say

yad

Do

wla

tya

r

Azr

aIs

hta

rla

y

Sho

rTe

pa

San

g-i-T

akh

t

Kah

ma

rd

Bur

ka

Khi

njan

Kal

dar

Do

wla

tab

ad

Ra

ghis

tan

Kam

desh

Zhir

e

And

ar

Da

rah

Qa

ram

Qul

Ch

aghc

hara

n(P

rovi

ncia

lCe

nte

r)

Pas

htun

Ko

t

Kan

g

Qa

la-i

-Zal

Zen

dah

Jan

Mal

ista

n

Gh

orm

ach

Sha

hJo

i

Kha

kre

z

Mar

kaz

-i-B

ehs

ud

Kha

sU

ruzg

an

Ge

lan

Sha

hris

tan

Jaji

Muq

ur

She

bar

Ab

Ka

ma

ri

Dih

raw

ud

Fark

har

Shi

rinTa

gab

Da

rah

-i-S

oof

-i-B

ala

Bag

hlan

-i-J

ade

ed

Mus

aQ

ala

Na

wa

-i-B

aruk

zai

Bar

g-i

-Ma

tal

Qa

raB

agh

Da

ych

opan

Khw

aja

hD

uKo

h

Muq

ur

Shi

ki

Kha

k-i-

Sa

fed

Arg

ha

ndab

Fara

h(P

rovi

ncia

lCe

nte

r)

Kus

hk(R

aba

t-i-S

ang

i)

Na

ri

Faiz

abad

Wa

zahk

hw

ah

Min

gajik

Kis

hin

deh

Kho

stw

aF

iring

Go

sfa

ndi

Sha

hidi

Ha

sas

And

arab

Alin

gar

Kis

him

Wa

rdoo

j

Ab

Ba

nd

Kus

k-i-K

ohna

h

Kha

nab

ad

Na

wB

ah

ar

Na

hre

en

Na

her-

i-S

ara

j

Bil

Ch

iragh

Pas

htun

Zar

gh

un

Pul

-i-A

lam

Esh

kas

him

Nijr

ab

Jan

iKh

el

Wa

ygal

Khu

ram

wa

Sa

rBag

h

Ban

gi

Ch

ahab

Tash

kan

Du

Ab

Niiz

am

-i-S

hah

id(G

uza

rah)

Da

imir

dad

Say

yid

abad

Qu

rgha

n

Na

hr-i

-Sh

ahi

Bal

kh

Da

hana

-i-G

hu

ri

Ch

ahar

Sad

ah

San

gcha

rak

Kha

mya

b

Da

rah

-i-S

uf-i

-Pa

yin

Ch

ahar

Da

rah N

erk

h

Sha

ykh

Ali

Ha

zra

tiIm

amS

ahib

Tag

ab

Qa

rgha

yee

Pul

-i-H

isar

Sur

kh-

i-P

ars

aShi

nwa

ri

Ch

ahar

Ken

t

No

orG

ram

De

hY

ak

Mar

dya

n

Tarn

ak

wa

Jald

ak

Khw

aha

n

Spe

ra

He

sara

k

Tan

ay

Mar

mul

Ach

in

Urg

un

Alis

hen

g

Sar

iP

ul(

Pro

vin

cial

Ce

nte

r)

His

ah-i-

Aw

alB

eh

sud

Esh

kam

ish

Om

na

Jag

hatu

She

berg

han

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Ch

ak-i

-Wa

rda

k

Ch

al

Sal

ang

Qu

shT

epah

Miy

aN

esh

in

Qa

lat

(Pro

vin

cial

Ce

nter

)

Atg

har

Go

shta

Koh

ista

n

Da

ray

im

Khu

gyan

i

Sha

hriB

uzu

rg

Bam

yan

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Yaw

an

Fayr

oz

Nak

hch

eer

Ha

zra

t-i-S

ulta

n

Kho

shi

Lalp

oor

Tirin

Kot

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Da

shti

-i-A

rch

i

Sar

Row

za

Ayb

ak

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Dila

hw

aK

hw

osh

aman

d

Kab

ul

Da

rwa

z-i-

Ba

la(n

esa

y)

Ro

dat

Koh

-i-S

afi

Na

ma

kA

b

She

rza

d

Kal

afg

an

Da

rqa

d

Kha

rwar

Ali

Ab

ad

Kak

arK

ak-

eA

fgha

n

Kot

Sar

-i-P

ol

Da

rwa

z-i

Pay

in(m

amay

)

Arg

ha

ndab

De

hSab

z

Wa

gha

z

Kha

niC

hah

arB

agh

Yafta

l-i-S

ufla

Yosu

fKh

el

Gh

azi

Ab

adD

ara

-i-P

ech

Sur

ub

i

Kha

k-i-

Jaba

r

Bag

ram

De

hS

ala

h

And

khoy

Bak

Ziru

k

Soz

ma

Qa

la

Kha

sh

Arg

ha

njK

hwah

De

hB

ala

Ra

shid

an

Beh

sud

Nu

rista

nP

aro

on(P

rovi

nci

alC

ent

er)

Bah

arak

Gu

rbuz

Kam

a

Pus

htR

od

San

gin

Qa

la

Giy

an

Ch

ark

h

Pag

hman

Mat

aK

han

No

org

al

Wo

zaJa

dra

n

Shu

tul

Ahm

adab

ad

Sam

kan

i

Pac

hirw

aga

m

Khw

aja

Gh

ar

Zarg

hun

Sh

ahr

Kha

sK

una

r

De

hdad

i

Lash

kar

gah

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Zan

akh

an

Hir

at

Jaji

Ma

idan

Bah

arak

Du

rB

aba

Zara

nj(P

rovi

nci

alC

ente

r)

Khw

aja

hH

ijran

(Jal

gah)

Na

zya

n

Firin

gw

aG

har

u

Da

shti

Qal

a

Kan

dah

ar(P

rovi

ncla

lCe

nte

r)

Ch

owke

y

Un

aba

Qa

la-i

-No

w(P

rov

inci

alC

ente

r)

Nili

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Shi

galw

aS

hel

tan

Yang

iQa

la

Da

ngam

Sar

Kan

i

Tera

yza

i(A

liS

he

r)

Bah

ram

-eS

hahi

d(J

agha

tu)

Shi

nwa

r

Shw

ak

Est

alef

Mus

ahi

Kho

stM

atu

n(P

rov

inci

alC

ente

r)

Go

zarg

ah-i-

No

orM

aim

ana

h

Gu

lara

Sha

hrak

-i-H

aira

tan

75°E

75°E

72°E

72°E

69°E

69°E

66°E

66°E

63°E

63°E

36°N

36°N

33°N

33°N

30°N

30°N

Afg

hani

stan

Opi

umR

apid

Ass

essm

entS

urve

y20

10,O

pium

plan

ting

cale

ndar

Sou

rce:

Gov

ernm

ento

fAfg

han

ista

n-

Na

tion

alm

oni

torin

gsy

ste

mim

plem

ente

dby

UN

OD

CN

ote:

The

boun

dari

esan

dn

ames

show

nan

dth

ed

esig

natio

nsus

edon

this

ma

pdo

noti

mpl

yof

ficia

lend

ors

em

ent

orac

cept

anc

eb

yth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Suru

bi Jaji

Alin

gar

Azra

Dar

ahM

ando

lD

uA

bN

ari

Nijr

ab

Way

gal

Taga

b

Qar

ghay

ee

Noo

rG

ram

Achi

n

Hes

arak

Alis

heng

Gos

hta

Khug

yani

Lalp

oor

Rod

at

Dow

latS

hah

Kot

AlaS

ai

Gha

ziA

bad

Wam

a

Behs

udKa

ma

Surk

hR

ud

Khas

Kun

arKu

zkun

ar

Dur

Baba

Sher

zad

Cha

paD

ara D

ara-

i-Pec

h

Deh

Bal

a

Noo

rga

l

Sam

kani

Pach

irw

agam

Naz

yan

Jaji

Mai

dan

Cho

wke

y

Shig

alw

aSh

elta

nW

atah

poor

Dan

gam

SarK

ani

Meh

tarL

am(P

rovi

ncia

lCen

ter)

Cha

parh

ar

Shin

war

Dar

ah-i-

Noo

r

Bati

Kot

Dan

dP

atan

Jani

Khe

l

Koh-

i-Saf

i

Moh

man

dD

ara

Mar

aw

arah

Nur

ista

nP

aroo

n(P

rovi

ncia

lCen

ter)

Nar

ang

wa

Bad

il

Saba

ri(Y

aqub

i)

BarK

unar

(Asm

ar)

Ruk

hah

His

sa-i-

Aw

al(K

hinj

)Ka

mde

sh

Khak

-i-Ja

bar

Jala

laba

dAsad

Aba

d(P

rovi

ncia

lCen

ter)

Bagr

am

Koh

Band

Kam

desh

Kuna

r

Nang

arha

r

Nuris

tan

Lagh

man

Pakt

iya

Kabu

lKapi

sa Khos

t

Panj

shir

Loga

r

East

ern

regi

on

Geo

grap

hic

Pro

ject

ion

Dat

um:W

GS

84

010

020

030

050

km

Lege

ndPl

antin

gD

ates

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Mar

chO

ctob

er/M

arch

Oct

ober

/Feb

ruar

yN

ovem

ber/M

arch

Inte

rnat

iona

lbou

ndar

yPr

ovin

cial

boun

dary

No

data

Sept

embe

rO

ctob

er


17

Map 6: Opium poppy flowering time

UZBEKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

IRAN

IRAN

PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN

PAK

ISTA

NPA

KIS

TAN

TURKMENISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

TAJI

KIS

TAN

Hira

t Fara

h

Gho

r

Hilm

and

Kan

daha

r

Nim

roz

Bad

akhs

han

Gha

zni

Fary

ab

Zabu

l

Bal

kh

Pakt

ika

Bad

ghis

Bam

yan

Bag

hlan

Sari

Pul

Takh

ar

Day

kund

i

Jaw

zjan

War

dak

Uru

zgan

Sam

anga

n

Kun

duz

Nur

ista

n Kun

ar

Kab

ul

Parw

an Loga

r

Kho

stNan

garh

ar

Pakt

iyaPa

njsh

ir Lagh

man

Kap

isa

Re

g

Dis

hu

Ch

ahar

Bu

rjak

Wa

khan

Adr

ask

an

Ga

rmS

erJa

wan

d

Ana

rD

ara

h

Gu

lran

Gh

ory

an

Gu

lista

n

Na

wu

r

Shi

ndan

d

Re

g-i-

Kh

anN

ishi

n

Yaka

wla

ng

Na

dA

li

Ob

e

Giz

ab

Go

ma

l

Koh

ista

nat

Qa

dis

Da

man

Wa

sher

Asl

-i-C

hakh

ans

ur

Mar

uf

Pan

jway

ee

Pur

Cha

ma

n

Sha

hra

k

Kha

shR

od

Tula

k

No

wza

d

Bal

aB

ulu

k

Khu

lm

Wa

ras

Kiti

Spi

nB

old

ak

Do

Lai

nah

Pas

ab

and

Tayw

ara

Ch

ora

h

Sho

rab

ak

Wa

rsa

j

Arg

his

tan

Fers

i

Shi

ghna

n

Qa

isar

Bal

kha

b

Lash

-i-J

uw

ayn

Bag

hra

n

Sag

har

Enj

il

Du

shi

Qa

la-i-

Kah

Bal

aM

urg

hab

Kira

nw

aM

unj

an

Kaj

aki

Mai

wa

nd

Shi

nka

i

Bak

wa

h

Koh

san

Shi

bK

oh

Kaj

ran

Jag

huri

Na

wa

De

lara

m

Ru

staq

Man

dol

MirA

mor

Pan

jab

Jurm

Koh

ista

n

Wo

rM

am

ay

Alm

ar

She

me

lza

i

Kar

rukh

Ne

sh

Khe

dir

Tag

ab

Lalw

aS

arja

ngal

Ro

i-Do-

Ab

Ch

imta

l

Turw

o

Arg

o

Kuf

Ab

Do

wla

tab

ad

Zari

Yam

gan

Sha

hW

aliK

ot

Zayb

ak

Ajri

stan

Sai

ghan

Par

yan

Gir

o

Gu

rziw

an

Gh

ora

k

Zurm

at

Sur

ubi

Sho

lgar

ah

Qa

rqin

Jalr

ez

Tala

hw

aB

arfa

k

Miz

an

Bar

mal

Shu

hada

Ch

iisht

-i-S

harif

Say

yad

Do

wla

tya

r

Azr

aIs

hta

rlay

Shi

rinT

agab

Sho

rTe

pa

San

g-i-

Takh

t

Kah

ma

rd

Bur

ka

Khi

njan

Kal

dar

Do

wla

tab

ad

Ra

ghis

tan

Kam

desh

Zhire

And

ar

Da

rah

Qa

ram

Qul

Bal

kh

Ch

aghc

ha

ran

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Pas

htu

nK

ot

Kan

g

Qa

la-i-

Zal

Zend

ah

Jan

Mal

ista

n

Gh

orm

ach

Sha

hJo

i

Kha

kre

z

Mar

kaz

-i-

Be

hsu

d

Kha

sU

ruzg

an

Ge

lan

Sha

hris

tan

Jaji

Muq

ur

She

bar

Ab

Ka

ma

ri

Dih

raw

ud

Fark

har

Da

rah

-i-S

oof-

i-Ba

la

Bag

hlan

-i-Ja

dee

d

Mus

aQ

ala

Na

wa

-i-B

aru

kza

i

Bar

g-i-

Mat

al

Qa

raB

agh

Da

ych

opan

Khw

ajah

Du

Ko

h

Muq

ur

Shi

ki

Kha

k-i-

Saf

ed

Arg

han

dab

Fara

h(P

rovi

ncia

lCe

nter

)

Kus

hk

(Rab

at-i

-Sa

ngi)

Na

ri

Faiz

abad

Wa

zahk

hw

ah

Min

gajik

Kis

hin

deh

Kho

stw

aF

irin

gG

osf

and

i

Sha

hidi

Ha

sas

And

ara

b

Alin

gar

Kis

him

Wa

rdo

oj

Ab

Ba

nd

Kus

k-i-

Koh

nah

Kha

naba

d

Na

wB

aha

r

Na

hre

en

Na

her-

i-Sar

aj

Bil

Chi

ragh

Pas

htu

nZ

arg

hun

Pul

-i-A

lam

Esh

kas

him

Nijr

ab

Jan

iKh

el

Wa

ygal

Khu

ram

wa

Sar

Ba

gh

Ban

gi

Ch

ahab

Tash

kan

Du

Ab

Niiz

am

-i-S

hahi

d(G

uza

rah

)

Da

imir

dad

Say

yid

abad

Qu

rgha

n

Na

hr-i

-Sh

ahi

Da

hana

-i-G

hur

i

Ch

ahar

Sa

dah

San

gcha

rak

Kha

mya

b

Da

rah

-i-S

uf-i

-Pay

in

Ch

ahar

Dar

ah

Ne

rkh

Sha

ykh

Ali

Ha

zrat

iIm

amS

ahi

b

Tag

ab

Qa

rgha

yee

Pul

-i-H

isar

Sur

kh-

i-P

ars

aShi

nwar

i

Ch

ahar

Ke

nt

No

orG

ram

De

hY

ak

Mar

dya

n

Tarn

akw

aJa

lda

k

Khw

aha

n

Spe

ra

He

sara

k

Tan

ay

Mar

mul

Ach

in

Urg

un

Alis

heng

Sar

iP

ul(P

rovi

nci

alC

ente

r)

His

ah-i-

Aw

alB

ehs

ud

Esh

kam

ish

Om

na

Jag

hatu

She

berg

han

(Pro

vinc

ialC

ent

er)

Ch

ak-i

-War

da

k

Ch

al

Sal

ang

Qu

shT

epah

Miy

aN

esh

inQ

ala

t(P

rovi

nci

alC

ente

r)

Atg

har

Go

shta

Koh

ista

n

Da

rayi

m

Khu

gyan

i

Sha

hri

Buz

urg

Bam

yan

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Yaw

an

Fayr

oz

Na

khch

eer

Ha

zrat

-i-S

ulta

n

Kho

shi

Lalp

oor

Tirin

Kot

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Da

shti

-i-A

rchi

Sar

Row

za

Ayb

ak

(Pro

vin

cial

Cen

ter)

Dila

hw

aK

hwo

sha

ma

nd

Kab

ul

Da

rwa

z-i-

Bal

a(n

esa

y)

Ro

dat

Koh

-i-S

afi

Na

mak

Ab

She

rza

d

Kal

afg

an

Da

rqa

d

Kha

rwar

Muh

amm

ad

Agh

ah

Ali

Ab

ad

Kha

naqa

Kak

ar

Ka

k-e

Afg

ha

n

Kot

Sar

-i-P

ol

Da

rwa

z-iP

ayin

(ma

ma

y)

Arg

han

dab

De

hSa

bz

Wa

ghaz

Ch

apa

Dar

a

Kha

niC

hah

arB

agh

Yafta

l-i-S

ufla

Yosu

fK

hel

Gh

azi

Aba

d

Ala

Sai

Da

ra-i

-Pe

ch

Sur

ubiBag

ram

De

hS

ala

h

And

khoy

Bak

Ziru

k

Wa

ma

Sya

hg

ird(G

ho

rba

nd)

Soz

ma

Qa

la

Kha

sh

Arg

han

jKh

wah

De

hB

ala

Ra

shid

an

Beh

sud

Nu

rista

nP

aro

on

(Pro

vinc

ialC

ent

er)

Ch

ahar

Bo

lak

Bah

ara

k

Gu

rbuz

Kam

a

Pus

htR

od

San

gin

Qa

la

Giy

an

Ch

arkh

Pag

hman

Mat

aK

han

No

org

al

Wo

zaJ

adra

n

Shu

tul

Sur

kh

Ru

d

Ahm

adab

adS

amka

ni

Bag

ram

i

Pac

hir

wag

am

Khw

aja

Gh

ar

Say

yid

Kar

am

Zarg

hun

Sh

ahr

Kha

sK

una

r

Lash

karg

ah(P

rovi

nci

alC

ente

r)

Zana

khan

Hir

at

Jaji

Ma

idan

Bah

ara

k

Du

rB

aba

Zara

nj(P

rov

inc

ialC

ent

er)

Khw

ajah

Hijr

an

(Ja

lgah

)

Na

zya

n

Firin

gw

aG

har

u

Da

shti

Qa

la

Kan

daha

r(P

rovi

ncla

lCe

nter

)

Ch

owke

y

Un

aba

Qa

la-i-

No

w(P

rovi

ncia

lC

ent

er)

Nili

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Shi

galw

aS

hel

tan

Yang

iQa

la

Da

ngam

Sar

Ka

ni

Tera

yza

i(A

liS

her

)

Bah

ram

-eS

ha

hid

(Ja

ghat

u)

Shi

nwar

Aqc

ha

h

Shw

ak

Da

ndP

ata

n

Qa

land

ar

Est

alef

Kho

stM

atu

n(P

rovi

ncia

lCe

nter

)

Go

zarg

ah-

i-Noo

r

Mai

ma

nah

Sha

hra

k-i-

Ha

irat

an

75°E

75°E

72°E

72°E

69°E

69°E

66°E

66°E

63°E

63°E

36°N

36°N

33°N

33°N

30°N

30°N

Afg

hani

stan

Opi

umR

apid

Ass

essm

entS

urve

y,20

10:E

xpec

ted

opiu

mpo

ppy

flow

erin

gtim

e

Sou

rce:

Gov

ernm

ento

fAfg

han

ista

n-

Na

tion

alm

oni

torin

gsy

ste

mim

plem

ente

dby

UN

OD

CN

ote:

The

boun

dari

esan

dn

ames

show

nan

dth

ed

esig

natio

nsus

edon

this

ma

pdo

noti

mpl

yof

ficia

lend

ors

em

ent

orac

cept

anc

eb

yth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Nuris

tan Ku

nar

Kabu

l

Loga

r

wan

Khos

t

Pakt

iya

Nang

arha

r

Panj

shir

Lagh

man

Kapi

sa Suru

bi Jaji

Man

dol

Azra

Nari

Alin

gar

Dara

h

Nijra

b

Way

gal

DuAb

Taga

b

Qarg

haye

eNoor

Gra

m

Hesa

rak

Achi

n

Zurm

at

Sala

ng

Gosh

ta Lalp

oor

Kot

AlaS

ai

Kam

desh

Bagr

am

Pul-i

-Ala

m

Alis

heng

Khug

yani

Khos

hi

Kabu

lRo

dat

Koh-

i-Saf

i

Dow

latS

hah

Sher

zad

Muh

amm

adAg

hah

DehS

abz

Chap

aDa

ra

Shin

wari

Ghaz

iAba

d

Dara

-i-Pe

ch

Khak

-i-Ja

bar

Bak

Wam

a

Khin

jan

Deh

Bala

Behs

udKa

ma

Noor

gal

Shut

ul

Ahm

adab

ad

Surk

hR

ud

Sam

kani

Bagr

ami

Pach

irw

agam

Sayy

idKa

ram

Khas

Kuna

rKu

zkun

ar

Nuris

tan

Paro

on(P

rovin

cial

Cent

er)

JajiM

aida

n

DurB

aba

Nazy

an

Saba

ri(Y

aqub

i)

Hiss

a-i-A

wal

(Khi

nj)

Chow

key

Laja

Ahm

adKh

el

Unab

a

Shig

alwa

Shel

tan

Wat

ahpo

or

Dang

am

SarK

ani

Meh

tarL

am(P

rovi

ncia

lCen

ter)

Mus

aKh

el(M

anga

l)

Shin

war

Qara

Bag

h

Rukh

ah

Dara

h-i-

Noor

Bati

Kot

Shwa

k

Dand

Pata

n

Jani

Khel

Mus

ahiAn

dara

b

Moh

man

dD

ara

Mar

awa

rah

Tera

yzai

(Ali

Sher

)

BarK

unar

(Asm

ar)

Gula

ra

Asad

Aba

d(P

rovin

cial

Cent

er)

East

ern

regi

on

Geo

grap

hic

Pro

ject

ion

Dat

um:W

GS

84

010

020

030

050

km

Lege

ndFl

ower

ing

Cale

ndar

Inte

rnat

iona

lbou

ndar

yPr

ovin

cial

boun

dary

No

data

Late

Mar

chEa

rlyAp

rilLa

teAp

rilEa

rlyM

ayLa

teM

ayEa

rlyJu

neLa

teJu

neEa

rlyJu

ly


18

Map 7: Opium harvest time

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

PAKISTAN

IRAN

Hira

t

Far

ah

Hilm

an

d

Gho

r

Nim

roz

Kand

arha

r

Ba

daks

han

Uru

zgan

Gh

azn

i

Zabu

l

Balk

h

Far

yab

Pa

ktik

a

Badg

his

Ba

ghla

nS

ari

Pul

Ba

mya

n

Tak

har

Jaw

zja

n

Pa

rwa

n

War

dak

Sam

anga

n

Kund

uz

Nur

ista

n

Pakt

ya

Kuna

r

Kabu

l

Nan

garh

ar

Kh

ost

Loga

r

Lagh

man

Kapi

sa

Re

g

Dis

hu

Ch

ahar

Bu

rjak

Wa

khan

Adr

ask

an

Ga

rmS

er

Jaw

and

Ana

rD

ara

h

Gu

lran

Gh

ory

an

Gu

lista

n

Na

wu

r

Shi

ndan

d

Re

g-i-

Kh

anN

ishi

n

Yaka

wla

ng

Na

dA

li

Ob

e

Giz

ab

Go

ma

l

Koh

ista

nat

Qa

dis

Da

ma

n

Wa

sher

Asl

-i-C

hakh

an

sur

Mar

uf

Pan

jway

ee

Pur

Cha

ma

n

Sha

hrak

Kha

shR

od

Tula

k

No

wza

d

Bal

aB

ulu

k

Khu

lm

Wa

ras

Kiti

Spi

nB

old

ak

Do

La

ina

h

Pas

ab

and

Tayw

ara

Ch

ora

h

Sho

raba

k

Wa

rsa

j

Arg

his

tan

Fers

i

Shi

ghna

n

Qa

isar

Bal

kha

b

Lash

-i-J

uw

ayn

Bag

hran

Sag

har

Enj

il

Du

shi

Qa

la-i

-Kah

Kira

nw

aM

unj

an

Kaj

aki

Mai

wa

nd

Shi

nka

i

Bak

wa

h

Koh

san

Shi

bK

oh

Kaj

ran

Jag

huri

Na

wa

De

lara

m

Ru

staq

Man

dol

MirA

mor

Pan

jab

Jurm

Koh

ista

n

Wo

rM

am

ay

Alm

ar

She

me

lza

i

Kar

rukh

Ne

sh

Khe

dir

Tag

ab

Lalw

aS

arja

ngal

Ro

i-Do-

Ab

Ch

imta

l

Turw

o

Arg

o

Kuf

Ab

Do

wla

tab

ad

Zari

Yam

gan

Sha

hW

aliK

ot

Zayb

ak

Qa

la-i

-Zal

Ajri

stan

Sai

ghan

Par

yan

Gir

o

Gu

rziw

an

Gh

ora

k

Sur

ub

i

Sho

lgar

ah

Qa

rqin

Jalr

ez

Tala

hw

aB

arfa

k

Sha

hris

tan

Miz

an

Bar

mal

Shu

hada

Ch

iisht

-i-S

hari

f

Say

yad

Do

wla

tya

r

Azr

aIs

hta

rlay

Sho

rTe

pa

San

g-i-T

akh

t

Kah

ma

rd

Bur

ka

Khi

njan

Kal

dar

Do

wla

tab

ad

Ra

ghis

tan

Kam

desh

Zhire

And

ar

Da

rah

Qa

ram

Qul

Bal

kh

Bal

aM

urg

hab

Ch

aghc

ha

ran

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Pas

htu

nK

ot

Kan

g

Zend

ah

Jan

Mal

ista

n

Gh

orm

ach

Zurm

at

Sha

hJo

i

Kha

kre

z

Mar

kaz

-i-

Be

hsu

d

Kha

sU

ruzg

an

Ge

lan

Jaji

Muq

ur

She

bar

Ab

Ka

ma

ri

Dih

raw

ud

Fark

har

Shi

rinT

agab

Da

rah

-i-S

oof-

i-Bal

a

Bag

hlan

-i-Ja

dee

d

Mus

aQ

ala

Na

wa

-i-B

aru

kza

i

Bar

g-i

-Mat

al

Qa

raB

agh

Da

ych

opan

Khw

ajah

Du

Ko

h

Muq

ur

Shi

ki

Kha

k-i-

Saf

ed

Arg

ha

ndab

Fara

h(P

rovi

ncia

lCe

nter

)

Kus

hk

(Rab

at-i

-Sa

ngi)

Na

ri

Faiz

abad

Wa

zahk

hw

ah

Min

gajik

Kis

hin

deh

Kho

stw

aF

irin

gG

osf

and

i

Sha

hidi

Ha

sas

And

arab

Alin

gar

Kis

him

Wa

rdo

oj

Ab

Ba

nd

Kus

k-i-

Koh

nah

Kha

naba

d

Na

wB

aha

r

Na

hre

en

Na

her-

i-S

ara

j

Bil

Ch

iragh

Pas

htu

nZ

arg

hun

Pul

-i-A

lam

Esh

kas

him

Nijr

ab

Jan

iKh

el

Wa

ygal

Khu

ram

wa

Sar

Ba

gh

Ban

gi

Ch

ahab

Tash

kan

Du

Ab

Niiz

am

-i-S

hah

id(G

uza

rah

)

Da

imir

dad

Say

yid

abad

Qu

rgha

n

Na

hr-i

-Sh

ahi

Da

hana

-i-G

hur

i

Ch

ahar

Sa

dah

San

gcha

rak

Kha

mya

b

Da

rah

-i-S

uf-i

-Pa

yin

Ch

ahar

Dar

ah

Ne

rkh

Sha

ykh

AliHa

zra

tiIm

amS

ah

ib

Tag

ab

Qa

rgha

yee

Pul

-i-H

isar

Sur

kh-

i-P

ars

aShi

nwar

i

Ch

ahar

Ke

nt

No

orG

ram

De

hY

ak

Mar

dya

n

Tarn

akw

aJ

ald

ak

Khw

aha

n

Spe

ra

He

sara

k

Tan

ay

Mar

mul

Ach

in

Urg

un

Alis

heng

Sar

iP

ul(P

rovi

nci

alC

ente

r)

His

ah-i-

Aw

alB

ehs

ud

Esh

kam

ish

Om

na

Jag

hatu

She

berg

han

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Ch

ak-i

-War

da

k

Ch

al

Sal

ang

Qu

shT

epah

Miy

aN

esh

inQ

ala

t(P

rovi

nci

alC

ente

r) Atg

har

Go

shta

Koh

ista

n

Da

ray

im

Khu

gyan

i

Sha

hriB

uzu

rg

Bam

yan

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Yaw

an

Fayr

oz

Na

khch

eer

Ha

zra

t-i-S

ulta

n

Kho

shi

Lalp

oor

Tirin

Kot

(Pro

vin

cial

Cen

ter)

Da

shti

-i-A

rchi

Sar

Row

za

Ayb

ak

(Pro

vinc

ialC

ent

er)

Dila

hw

aK

hw

osh

am

and

Kab

ul

Da

rwa

z-i-

Bal

a(n

esa

y)

Ro

dat

Koh

-i-S

afi

Na

ma

kA

b

She

rza

d

Kal

afg

an

Da

rqa

d

Kha

rwar

Muh

amm

ad

Agh

ah

Ali

Ab

ad

Kha

naqa

Kak

ar

Ka

k-e

Afg

han

Kot

Sar

-i-P

ol

Da

rwa

z-iP

ayin

(mam

ay)

Arg

ha

ndab

De

hSa

bz

Wa

ghaz

Ch

apa

Dar

a

Kha

niC

hah

arB

agh

Yafta

l-i-S

ufla

Yosu

fK

hel

Gh

azi

Aba

dA

laS

ai

Da

ra-i

-Pe

ch

Sur

ub

i

Kha

k-i-

Jab

ar

Bag

ram

De

hS

ala

h

And

khoy

Bak

Ziru

k

Wa

ma

Sya

hg

ird(G

horb

and

)

Soz

ma

Qa

la

Kha

sh

Arg

ha

njK

hwah

De

hB

ala

Ra

shid

an

Beh

sud

Nu

rista

nP

aro

on

(Pro

vin

cia

lCe

nte

r)

Ch

ahar

Bo

lak

Bah

arak

Gu

rbuz

Kam

a

Pus

htR

od

San

gin

Qa

la

Giy

an

Ch

ark

h

Pag

hman

Mat

aK

han

His

sa-i

-Aw

al(K

hin

j)

No

org

al

Wo

zaJ

adra

n

Shu

tul

Sur

kh

Rud

Ahm

adab

adS

amka

ni

Talo

qan

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Khw

aja

Gh

ar

Say

yid

Kar

am

Zarg

hun

Sh

ahr

Kha

sK

una

r

De

hdad

i

Lash

kar

gah

(Pro

vin

cia

lCen

ter)

Zana

khan

Hir

at

Jaji

Ma

idan

Bah

arak

Du

rB

aba

Zara

nj(P

rov

inci

alC

en

ter)

Khw

ajah

Hijr

an

(Ja

lga

h)

Na

zya

n

Sab

ari(

Yaq

ubi)

Firin

gw

aG

har

u

Da

shti

Qal

a

Kan

daha

r(P

rovi

ncla

lCe

nter

)

Ch

owke

y

Un

aba

Qa

la-i

-No

w(P

rovi

ncia

lCe

nte

r)

Nili

(Pro

vinc

ial

Ce

nte

r)

Shi

galw

aS

hel

tan

Yang

iQa

la

Da

ngam

Sar

Ka

ni

Na

dirS

hah

Kot

Tera

yza

i(A

liS

her

)

Bah

ram

-eS

hahi

d(J

agh

atu

)

Shi

nwar

Aqc

ha

h

Ch

ahar

Asy

ab

Da

ndP

ata

n

Est

alef

Pul

-i-K

hum

ri(P

rov

inci

alC

en

ter)

Mus

ahi

Kho

stM

atu

n(P

rovi

ncia

lC

ent

er)

Go

zarg

ah-

i-Noo

rM

aim

ana

h

Sha

hrak

-i-H

aira

tan

75°E

75°E

72°E

72°E

69°E

69°E

66°E

66°E

63°E

63°E

36°N

36°N

33°N

33°N

30°N

30°N

Afg

hani

stan

Opi

umR

apid

Ass

essm

entS

urve

y,20

10:E

xpec

ted

opiu

mpo

ppy

harv

estt

ime

Sou

rce:

Gov

ernm

ento

fAfg

han

ista

n-

Na

tion

alm

oni

torin

gsy

ste

mim

plem

ente

dby

UN

OD

CN

ote:

The

boun

dari

esan

dn

ames

show

nan

dth

ed

esig

natio

nsus

edon

this

ma

pdo

noti

mpl

yof

ficia

lend

ors

em

ent

orac

cept

anc

eb

yth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Nuris

tan Ku

nar

Kabu

l

Loga

r

arw

an

Khos

t

Pakt

iya

Nang

arha

r

Panj

shir

Lagh

man

Kapi

sa Suru

bi Jaji

Azra

Zurm

at

Alin

gar

Dara

hM

ando

l

Nijra

b

DuAb

Nari

Way

gal

Taga

b

Qarg

haye

eNoor

Gra

m

Hesa

rak

Achi

n

Gosh

ta

Sala

ng

Lalp

oor

Kot

AlaS

aiBa

gram

Pul-i

-Ala

m

Shin

wari

Alis

heng

Khug

yani

Khos

hi

Kabu

lRo

dat

Koh-

i-Saf

i

Dow

latS

hah

Sher

zad

Muh

amm

adA

ghah

DehS

abz

Chap

aD

ara

Ghaz

iAba

d

Dara

-i-Pe

ch

Khak

-i-Ja

bar

Bak

Wam

a

Deh

Bala

Behs

udKa

ma

Noor

gal

Char

khAh

mad

abad

Surk

hRu

d

Sam

kani

Bagr

ami

Pach

irw

agam

Sayy

idK

aram

Woz

aJa

dran

Khas

Kuna

rKu

zkun

ar

Shut

ul

JajiM

aida

n

DurB

aba

Nazy

an

Saba

ri(Y

aqub

i)Ga

rdez

(Pro

vinc

ialC

ente

r)

Khin

jan

Chow

key

Shak

arDa

ra

Nerk

h

Laja

Ahm

adKh

el

Unab

a

Shig

alwa

Shel

tan

Wat

ahpo

or

Dang

am

SarK

ani

Meh

tarL

am(P

rovin

cial

Cent

er)

Shin

war

Tera

yzai

(AliS

her)

Qara

Bagh

Rukh

ah

Dara

h-i-

Noo

r

Bati

Kot

Chah

arAs

yab

Dand

Pata

n

Esta

lef

Jani

Khel

Mus

ahi

Koh

Band

Mat

aKh

an

Nuris

tan

Paro

on(P

rovi

ncia

lCen

ter)

Moh

man

dDa

ra

Mar

awa

rah

Khos

tMat

un(P

rovin

cialC

ente

r)

BarK

unar

(Asm

ar)

Jaba

luss

araj

East

ern

regi

on

Geo

grap

hic

Pro

ject

ion

Dat

um:W

GS

84

010

020

030

050

km

Lege

ndHa

rves

tCal

enda

r

Late

July

Early

July

Late

June

Early

June

Late

May

Early

May

Late

April

Early

April

No

Dat

a

Dis

trict

boun

dary

Inte

rnat

iona

lbou

ndar

yPr

ovin

cial

boun

dary


19

Map 8: Dry opium prices December 2009 (US$/kg)

INDIA

INDIA

UR

UZG

AN

PAN

JSH

IR

HIR

AT

FAR

AH

HIL

MA

ND

GH

OR

NIM

RO

Z

KAN

DA

HA

R

BAD

AK

HS

HA

N

DAY

KU

ND

I

GH

AZN

I

BALK

H

FAR

YAB

ZAB

UL

BAD

GH

IS

PAK

TIK

A

BAG

HLA

NSA

RIP

UL

BAM

YAN

TAK

HA

RJA

WZJ

AN

PAR

WA

N

WA

RD

AK

SAM

AN

GA

N

NU

RIS

TAN

KAB

UL

KHO

ST

KUN

DU

Z

PAK

TYA

KUN

AR

NAN

GA

RH

AR

LOG

AR

LAG

HM

AN

KAP

ISA

PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN

IRAN

IRAN

TURKMENISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

CHINA

CHINA

Trad

er:7

4Fa

rmer

:68

Trad

er:7

2Fa

rmer

:65

Trad

er:9

6Fa

rmer

:84

Trad

er:1

17Fa

rmer

:102

Trad

er:7

5Fa

rmer

:71

Trad

er:6

2Fa

rmer

:57

Trad

er:1

06Fa

rmer

:90

Trad

er:6

7Fa

rmer

:59

Trad

er:7

6Fa

rmer

:72

Trad

er:7

4Fa

rmer

:72

Trad

er:7

4Fa

rmer

:70

Trad

er:6

6Fa

rmer

:0

Trad

er:1

34Fa

rmer

:132Tr

ader

:125

Farm

er:1

15Tr

ader

:133

Farm

er:1

17

Afg

hani

stan

:Ave

rage

dry

opiu

mpr

ice

(Dec

2009

)

Sour

ce:G

over

nmen

tofA

fgha

nist

an-N

atio

nalm

onito

ring

syst

emim

plem

ente

dby

UN

OD

CN

ote:

The

boun

darie

san

dna

mes

show

nan

dth

ede

sign

atio

nsus

edon

this

map

dono

tim

ply

offic

iale

ndor

sem

ento

racc

epta

nce

byth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Lege

nd Pric

eno

tcol

lect

ed

Inte

rnat

iona

lbou

ndar

yPr

ovin

cial

boun

dary

Farm

er:

Farm

erdr

yop

ium

pric

ein

US

D/k

gTr

ader

:Tr

ader

dry

opiu

mpr

ice

inU

SD

/kg

Pric

eco

llect

ed

±0

100

200

50Km


20

Map 9: Sampling frame and selected villages for the Winter Assessment 2010

!

!

! !

!!!

!!!

!!

!!

!!!!

!

!!

! !

!

!

! !

! !!

!!

!! !

!

!

!!

!!

! !!

!

! !!

!

!

!

!

!!! ! !

!

!

! !

!!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!! !! !!

!!!

!!

!

!!!

!!!

! !!

!

!

!!!

!!! !! !!

!!

!!

!!!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

! !!

!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

! !

!!

!

! !

!! !!

!!!

!!!! ! !

!!

! !

! !

!

!! !

!!!

!!

!

!!!!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!!!

!!!

!!

!!

!!!

!

!

!!

!

!

! !!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

! ! !! !

!!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!!!

!

!

!

!!!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!!

!! !

!!!!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

! !

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

! !!

!!

! !

!

! !! !

!!

!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!!!

!!

!!

!! !

!

!!

! !

!!

!

!

!!

!!

!

! !

!

!

!

! !

!!!

! !

!!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

! !!!

! !

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!! !!

!!

! !

!!

! !!

!

! !

! !

!!

!

!

! !!!

!!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!!

! ! !!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!!

!! !

!! !

!

!!

! !! !

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!!

!!!

! !

! !!

!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!!

!

! !

!

!

! !

! !!

!

!!!

!!

!!

!

!

! !!!

!!

!

!

!!! ! ! ! !!!

!!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

! !!!!!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!!!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!!!

!

!!

!!!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!!!

!!

!

! !!!

!

!

!!

!

!!! !

!!!

!!!!

!! !

!

!! !! !

! !!! ! !!!

!! !!

!

!

! ! !!

!!

! !!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!!!

!

! !

!

!!!

!

!

!

! !

!

!!!!!

!! !!!

!

!!

!

!! !

!!!

!

!

!!

!!

!!

!!!

!!!!

!!! !! !!!!

!! !

!!! !!

!

!

!!!

!

!!

!

!!

!!! !

! !!

!!

!!!!

!

!

!!

!! !!

!!

!! !

!!

!

!!!!

!

!! !

!!!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!!

! !!

!

!!

!!

!

!!

!!!!

!! !

!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!!! !

!

!

!!

!!

! !

! !!

! !

! ! !! !

!!

!!

!!

!! !!!

!!!

!!!

!

! !! !!

!!

!!

!!

! !!

! !!! ! !!

! !!

!

!

!

! !

!

! !!

!

!

!!!

!

!!

!

!!

!! !!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!!! !!! !

!!!

!

! !!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!!

!

!!!

!!

!!

!!!!! !!

! !!! !!!!

!!

! !!!!!!

! !!!! !

!!!

!! !

!

!!

!!! ! !!!

!!!

!!

!!

!!!

! ! !!

!!! !!! !!!!

! !!!

!!! !!!

!!!

!!!!

!!!!!!

!

!!!!

!!

!! !!

!

!! !

!!

!! !

!!

!!!

!!

!! !!!!

!!

!!

!!!

!!

!!

!!

! !!

! !!!

! !!

!!!

!

!

!!

!

!!!

! !

! !!!

!!!!

!

!!

!! !!!

!!!! !

!!

!!!

! !

! ! ! ! !!! !

!!

!

!!!!!

! ! !!

!!!

!!!!!

!!!

!!

!!! !

!!

! !!

! !!

!!

!!

!!

!!!!

! !

!!

!

! !

!!

!!

!!

!

!!

! ! !

!!

! !!! !!

!!

! !! !! !

!

!

! !

!

! !!

!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

! !!

!! !!

!!!

! !!

!

!!!

!!

!!!

!

!!

!!! !!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!!!!

!

!!

! !

!

! !

!

!! !

!

!! ! !!

!!

!

!!!

!!

!

!

! !! ! ! !!

!!!

!

!! !

!!!

!

!!

! !!

!

!!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!

!!!

!!!

! !!

!! ! !!

!

!!

! !!!!!

! !!!!!

!

! !!! !!! !! !

!!

! !

!!! !!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!!

!!!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!!!!

!

!

!

!

!

! ! !!

! !

!!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

! !!!

!

!!

!

! !! !!

!

!

!! !! !!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!!!! !! !!

!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!! !

!

!!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!!!

!!

!

! !!

!

!!

!

!

!

! !!

!

!

!

! !!

!! !!

! !

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!!

!!!

! !!

!! ! ! !

!! !

!! !

!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!! !

! !!

!!!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

! !!

!

!!

!

!!

! !!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!!

!!!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!!

!!!

!

!!

! !!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!!

! !

!!

!!!

! !!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!! !

!

!

!

!

!!!!!

!!!!

! !

!

!!

! !!!

! !!!

!!!

!

!

!!

!!!!!

!!

!!

!!

! !!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!!!

!!!

!

!!

!

!! !

!

!

!

!!

!

!

! !!

!!!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!

! !

!

!!

!

! !

!

!!

!!

! !

! !!

!

!!

!!

!

!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!! !

!!

!!!

!!

!

!

!!

!

! !

!

! !

!

!

!! !

!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!!!!!

!

!

!

!!!

!

!

!

! !!

! !!

!

!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!

!!!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!

! !!

!!

!!

!!!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!!! !!

!!

!!

!!

!! !!!!

!

!

!

! !!

!!!

!!

!!

!

!!

!

!!

!!

! !

!

!!

! !!

!

!

! !!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! ! !

!

!

!!

! ! !

!!

!!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!!

!

!!

! !!

!

!

!

!!!

!! !

!

!!! !

!

! !! ! !! !

!!

!!!!

!! ! !!!

IRAN

IRAN

PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN

INDIA

INDIA

TURKMENISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

75°E

75°E

70°E

70°E

65°E

65°E

60°E

60°E 35°N

35°N

30°N

30°N

Afg

hani

stan

:Opi

umR

apid

Ass

essm

entS

urve

y,Sa

mpl

edvi

llage

s20

10

Sour

ce:G

over

nmen

tofA

fgha

nist

an-N

atio

nalm

onito

ring

syst

emim

plem

ente

dby

UN

OD

CN

ote:

The

boun

darie

san

dna

mes

show

nan

dth

ede

sign

atio

nsus

edon

this

map

dono

tim

ply

offic

iale

ndor

sem

ento

racc

epta

nce

byth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Lege

nd

Inte

rnat

iona

lbou

ndar

y

Prov

inci

albo

unda

ry

!20

10O

RA

SS

ampl

edvi

llage

s

¯G

eogr

aphi

cpr

ojec

tion,

WG

S84

015

030

075

km

2009

Sam

pled

villa

ges

(Vill

age

surv

ey)

!

Note: The villages surveyed for the Winter Assessment 2010 are a subsample of the villages surveyed during the 2009 Opium Survey.


21

Map 10: Cultivation trend vs. security situation

TURKMENISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN

IND

IAIN

DIA

IRAN

IRAN

Hira

t Fara

h

Gho

r

Hilm

and

Kan

daha

r

Nim

roz

Bad

akhs

han

Bal

kh

Gha

zni

Zabu

l

Fary

ab

Bad

ghis

Pakt

ika

Bag

hlan

Bam

yan

Sari

Pul

Takh

ar

Day

kund

i

Jaw

zjan

War

dak

Uru

zgan

Sam

anga

n

Nur

ista

n

Kun

duz

Kun

arK

abul

Loga

r Kho

st

Parw

an

Pakt

iya

Nan

garh

ar

Panj

shir La

ghm

anK

apis

a

75°E

75°E

72°E

72°E

69°E

69°E

66°E

66°E

63°E

63°E

36°N

36°N

33°N

33°N

30°N

30°N

Secu

rity

map

(as

at21

Janu

ary

2010

)Vs.

Expe

cted

opiu

mcu

ltiva

tion

tren

ds(b

ypr

ovin

ce)

Sou

rce

secu

rity

ma

p:U

ND

SS

Sou

rce:

MC

N-

UN

OD

CA

fgha

nis

tan

Opi

um

Rap

idA

sses

me

ntS

urve

y,2

010

(http

://w

ww

.un

odc.

org/

unod

c/e

n/cr

op_m

onito

ring

.htm

l)N

ote:

The

boun

dari

esan

dn

ames

show

nan

dth

ed

esig

natio

nsus

edon

this

ma

pdo

noti

mpl

yof

ficia

lend

ors

em

ent

orac

cept

anc

eb

yth

eU

nite

dN

atio

ns.

Geo

grap

hic

Pro

ject

ion

Dat

um:W

GS

840

100

200

300

50km

Ghaz

ni

War

dak

Bagh

lan

Kabu

l

Nuris

tan

Parw

an Loga

r

Khos

t

Pakt

iya

Nang

arha

r

Pakt

ika

Kuna

r

Panj

shir

Lagh

man

Bam

yan

Kapi

sa

Bada

khsh

an

Secu

rity

Cul

tivat

ion

chan

ge

Incr

ease

Extre

me

risk

Hig

hris

kM

ediu

mris

kLo

wris

k

Popp

yfre

e

Dec

reas

e

Stab

le

Inte

rnat

iona

lbou

ndar

yPr

ovin

cial

boun

dary

Dis

trict

boun

dary


22

2. FINDINGS BY PROVINCE

2.1. NORTH-EASTERN REGION BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE Interviews with the selected village headmen indicated that cultivation level in 2010 is low as a result of effective information campaigns against opium cultivation and eradication in 2009. In 2009, opium cultivation in Badakhshan increased sharply by 179%. It is expected to remain stable in 2010. The opium cultivation is expected to increase moderately in Baharak, Tagab and Khash districts, while there could be a slight decrease in Faizabad and Wardooz districts. The situation will be clearer during the upcoming spring cultivation season (March/April 2010).

Opium cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 557Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time End of June Security situation Good

TAKHAR PROVINCERespondents in all districts reported no change in opium cultivation in 2010 and it is expected that Takhar remains poppy-free in 2010. Even though this province falls on a major trafficking route to Tajikistan (via the Chah Ab, Yangi Qala, Darqad and Rustaq districts).


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Mid-June Security situation Good


23

KUNDUZ PROVINCERespondents across all districts reported no change in opium cultivation in 2009 and it is likely that it will remain poppy-free.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Good


24

2.2. EASTERN REGION NANGARHAR PROVINCE There could be moderate decrease in opium cultivation in Nangarhar province and the cultivation level seems to be low. The province can once again remain poppy-free with effective eradication efforts.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 294Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Poor

KUNAR PROVINCE Opium cultivation in 2010 is expected to further decrease as it did in 2009. Low cultivation in Kunar province is attributed to pressure by the Governor as well as to high prices of food grains and low prices of opium. Main opium poppy growing districts in Kunar are Asadabad, Barkunar, Nari, Sirkanay and Chawkay.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 164

Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Poor

LAGHMAN PROVINCE Opium cultivation in Laghman province is expected to remain stable at low levels in 2010. Low cultivation in Laghman province is attributed to pressure by the Governor as well as to high prices of food grains and low prices of opium. In 2009 Qarghayi and Mihtarlam were the main poppy-cultivating districts.


25



Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level Insignificant Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of April Security situation Poor

NURISTAN PROVINCE Nuristan is located at a high elevation and is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 like in 2009.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of April Security situation Poor

KAPISA PROVINCE Kapisa is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 as in 2009.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May / early July Security situation Poor


26

NORTHERN REGION

BAGHLAN PROVINCE Baghlan was poppy-free in 2009, however it is expected that there will be a moderate increase in opium cultivation in Baghlan-I-Jadeed, Dahana-I-Ghuri, Deh Salah and Pul-I-Hisar districts. The province could become poppy-free if spring opium cultivation is prevented.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Moderate increase Cultivation level Insignificant Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time End of May to mid-June Security situation Good (Poor at few places)

BAMYAN PROVINCE Bamyan province is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 like in 2009.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late July Security situation Good

BALKH PROVINCE Balkh province is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 like in 2009 and 2008. This trend may be attributed to successful campaigns by the Government against opium cultivation.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time End of April Security situation Good


27

FARYAB PROVINCE Faryab became poppy-free in 2009 from 291 ha opium cultivation in 2008. In 2010 it is expected to moderately increase in opium cultivation in districts of Bil Chiragh, Gurziwan and Kohistan.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Moderate increase Cultivation level Insignificant Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Good (Poor at few places)

JAWZJAN PROVINCE Jawzjan province was not a significant opium poppy-growing area until 2002. From 2002 to 2006, however, cultivation increased sharply. In 2009, the province was poppy-free, and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 as well.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn and spring Expected main harvest time Late May Security situation Good (Poor at few places)

SAMANGAN PROVINCE Samangan province was poppy-free in 2007, 2008 and 2009. It is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Rain-fed and irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time End of July Security situation Good


28

SARI PUL PROVINCE Sari Pul province was poppy-free in 2008 and 2009. However, in 2010, there could be a moderate increase in cultivation in the districts of Kohistanat and Sayyad.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free

Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Moderate increase Cultivation level Low Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Good (Poor at few places)


29

CENTRAL REGION

GHAZNI PROVINCE Ghazni province has been poppy-free since 2005. ORAS results suggest that the province will remain poppy-free in 2010 as well.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late July Security situation Very poor

KHOST PROVINCE

Khost province has been poppy-free since 2007 and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010 as well.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late May Security situation Poor

LOGAR PROVINCE Logar province has been poppy-free since 2005 and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010..


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring/autumn Expected main harvest time May/June Security situation Poor


30

PAKTIKA PROVINCE Paktika province has been poppy-free since 2004 and the same trend is expected to continue in 2009.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time June Security situation Poor

PAKTYA PROVINCE Paktya province has been poppy-free since 2005 and the same trend is expected to continue in 2010.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time June Security situation Poor

PARWAN PROVINCE Parwan has been poppy-free since 2007 and it is expected to stay poppy-free in 2010 as well.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Good


31

PANJSHIR PROVINCE Panjshir province has always been poppy-free and it is expected to maintain the same status in 2010.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time May Security situation Very good

WARDAK PROVINCE Wardak has been poppy-free since 2006 and it is expected to remain so in 2010.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May/early July Security situation Very poor

KABUL PROVINCE There was 57% reduction in opium cultivation in Kabul province in 2009. The cultivation in 2010 is likely to remain stable. There is only one district namely Sarobi where opium is cultivated.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 132Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level Insignificant Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Late May Security situation Very good


32

SOUTHERN REGION KANDAHAR PROVINCE There was an increase in opium cultivation in Kandahar province in 2009 (35%). In 2010, cultivation level is expected to remain stable. The cultivation level would remain high. The main opium cultivation districts in 2009 were Khakrez, Miya Nishin, Nesh, Panjwayee, Zhari and Shah Walikot.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 19,811 Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level High Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of May Security situation Very Poor

HILMAND PROVINCE Cultivation level decreased in 2009 to around 69,833 ha as compared to 103,590 ha in 2008. In 2010, cultivation level is expected to remain stable. The main opium cultivation districts in 2009 were Bagran, Garmser (Hazarjuft), Kajaki, Lashkar Gah, Musa Qala, Nad Ali, Naway-i-Saraj, and Nawzad.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 69,833 Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Stable Cultivation level High Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of May Security situation Very poor

URUZGAN PROVINCE Uruzgan has traditionally been one of Afghanistan’s major opium poppy-growing provinces. Opium cultivation reduced slightly in 2009 from 9,939 ha in 2008 to 9,224 ha in 2009. In 2010 cultivation is expected to moderately increase in the districts of Shahidi Hassas and Tirinkot.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 9,224

Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate increase Cultivation level High Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Very poor


33

ZABUL PROVINCE In 2009 there was a decrease of 51% in opium cultivation in Zabul province and it is further expected to moderately decrease in 2010. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2009 were Kakar (Khak-e-Afghan) , Mizan Day Chopan, Qalat, Shahjoy, Tarnak wa Jaldak, Shinkay, Shamulzayi, Naw Bahar, and Arghandab.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 1,144

Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Very poor

DAY KUNDI PROVINCE In 2009 Day Kundi experienced an increase of 32% in opium cultivation; however it is expected to decrease in 2010. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2009 were Gizab, Ishtarlay, Kiti and Miramor.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 3,002 Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time July Security situation Poor


34

WESTERN REGION

HIRAT PROVINCE In 2009 there was an increase in opium cultivation in Hirat province (109%). In 2010, a moderate decrease is expected in opium cultivation in the province. The level of opium cultivation should continue to remain low in 2010 and it could become poppy-free if effective poppy eradication measures are implemented.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 556Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May/late June Security situation Good

FARAH PROVINCE Opium cultivation decreased by 17% in 2009 compared to 2008. In 2010, opium cultivation is expected to decrease in all the opium growing districts namely Bala Buluk, Bakwa, Khaki Safed, Pur Chaman, Pusht Rod, Gulistan, Farah, Qalay-I-Kah, Shib Koh, Anar Dara and Lash Wa Jauwayn. However the cultivation level would remain high in the province


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 12,405 Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level High Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Early May Security situation Very Poor


35

NIMROZ PROVINCEIn 2009 there was a decrease of in opium cultivation. In 2010, opium cultivation is expected to moderately decrease further in the opium growing districts namely Khash Rod, Asl-i-Chakhansur Chahar Burja and Chakhansur. The level of cultivation would be low. However, Nimroz will continue to play an important role in trafficking given its location at the border with Iran and Pakistan.



Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Very Poor

GHOR PROVINCE Ghor province was poppy-free in 2009 and is expected to remain poppy-free in 2010. Ghor is one of the main opium-trafficking provinces.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) Poppy-free Cultivation practices Irrigated Projected trends in 2010 Poppy-free Cultivation level Poppy-free Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Good (Poor at few places.)

BADGHIS PROVINCE In 2009 there was a strong increase in opium cultivation (822%) compared to 2008 in Badghis province. In 2010 however, a moderate decrease is expected in the province. The cultivation level would remain high. The main poppy growing districts are Jaywand and Bala Murghab.


Cultivation in 2009 (hectares) 5,411 Cultivation practices Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2010 Moderate decrease Cultivation level High Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Mid-June Security situation Good (Poor in one district)


36

3. METHODOLOGY

The Winter Opium Rapid Assessment, including training and deployment, was conducted from 6 December 2008 to 7 January 2010 by 86 local field surveyors. The survey was jointly planned and implemented by the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics (MCN) of the Government of Afghanistan and UNODC.

Sampling framework

A total of 547 villages in 188 districts were selected across all poppy growing provinces, however only 536 villages could be surveyed.

The villages were selected from sampled villages of the 2009 village survey using a systematic random selection technique. No sampling was done for the 12 provinces that have been poppy-free for many years (Logar, Paktiya. Paktika, Panjshir, Ghazni, Wardak, Parwan, Kundus, Balkh, Nuristan, Bamyan and Khost).

The design and size of the sample facilitated the establishment of cultivation trends; the sample is not designed for calculating quantitative areas or production estimates. In addition to the sample villages, the surveyors, using their knowledge of the local situation, visited other areas in the province to complement their assessment both of opium cultivation trends and the security situation throughout the province.

Training of surveyors and data collection

The surveyors were selected on the basis of a written test, their experience in conducting opium poppy surveys, knowledge of local customs and their acceptance by local communities. During the training period, a total nine survey coordinators and 86 surveyors were trained in the use of the survey form and survey techniques.

The surveyors conducted structured interviews with the headmen of selected villages in all provinces. UNODC and MCN coordinators monitored data quality and the progress of the survey closely.

ORAS training in Eastern region ORAS monitoring in Eastern region


37

ORAS training in Southern region ORAS training of the trainers in Kabul

Debriefing

At the end of the survey, surveyors were debriefed by survey coordinators, reporting on their findings in the areas they had visited and providing an assessment of various factors that influence opium cultivation. The debriefing information was also used to understand the socio-political situation; difficulties encountered in conducting the survey; the level of control exercised by Governors over their respective provinces; the presence of anti-Government elements and the resulting impact on opium cultivation; corruption etc.


38

ANNEX 1: Cultivation levels from 2005 to 2009 and expected trends in 2010

*Due to administrative boundary changes, the 2009 estimates for Farah and Nimroz were calculated considering parts of Khash Rod district, the main cultivating district in Nimroz, as being part of Farah province. The 2008 figures include all of Khash Rod district in Nimroz province.

A province is defined as poppy-free when it is estimated to have less than 100 ha of opium cultivation.

Documents

Afghanistan Opium Survey 2010 - United Nations … Opium Survey 2010 February 2010 Government of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics ABBREVIATIONS AGE Anti Government Elements