11
2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP2007 South Coast AQMP/SIPOzone & PM2.5 Control Strategy Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy
2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP2007 South Coast AQMP/SIPOzone & PM2.5 Control Strategy Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy
Laki Tisopulos, Ph.D., P.E.Assistant Deputy Executive Officer
South Coast Air Quality Management District
NACAA Spring Membership MeetingMay 6, 2008
22
Boundaries of the South Coast Air QualityBoundaries of the South Coast Air QualityManagement District and Federal Planning AreasManagement District and Federal Planning Areas
Boundaries of the South Coast Air QualityBoundaries of the South Coast Air QualityManagement District and Federal Planning AreasManagement District and Federal Planning Areas
2
33
Demographic Projections and Demographic Projections and Ozone Air Quality TrendOzone Air Quality Trend
Demographic Projections and Demographic Projections and Ozone Air Quality TrendOzone Air Quality Trend
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
YEAR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
1980
Pe
rce
nt
Inc
rea
se
in
Po
pu
lati
on
an
d
Ac
tiv
itie
s
O3 8-HourDesign Value
Population VMT Housing Units
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
De
sig
n V
alu
e (
pp
b)
80
O3 8-HourDesign Value (ppb)
44
2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other U.S. Cities Compared to Other U.S. Cities
2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other U.S. Cities Compared to Other U.S. Cities
Percent of Standard
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
South Coast Houston Philadelphia New York WashingtonD.C.
Atlanta Chicago Phoenix
Ozone (8-hour) Ozone (1-hour) PM2.5 (Annual)
PM10 (Annual) CO (8-hour) NO2 (Annual)
55
2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration
66
South CoastSouth Coast82%82%
Rest of CaliforniaRest of California18%18%
South CoastSouth Coast52%52%
Rest of NationRest of Nation48%48%
Population-Weighted Exposure Above NAAQS Based onPopulation-Weighted Exposure Above NAAQS Based on2000-2002 AIRS Data2000-2002 AIRS Data
PM2.5 Disproportionate ExposurePM2.5 Disproportionate ExposureSouth Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air Basin
PM2.5 Disproportionate ExposurePM2.5 Disproportionate ExposureSouth Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air Basin
Source: California Air Resources Board Source: California Air Resources Board
77
SCAB Cases/Year due to PM2.5 *
Premature Deaths 5,400Hospitalizations 2,400Asthma & Lower Respiratory 140,000 SymptomsLost Work Days 980,000Minor Restricted Activity Days 5,000,000
*1999-2000 Air Quality Data
Source: California Air Resources Board
Recent CARB Assessment Recent CARB Assessment of PM Health Effectsof PM Health Effects
Recent CARB Assessment Recent CARB Assessment of PM Health Effectsof PM Health Effects
88
Emissions by Major CategoryEmissions by Major CategorySCAQMDSCAQMD
Emissions by Major CategoryEmissions by Major CategorySCAQMDSCAQMD
(NOx, SOx, PM2.5) (VOC, NOx)
PM2.5, 2014Area Sources
10%
Point Sources7%
On-Road 39%
Off-Road 41%
On-Road 25%
Area Sources 26%
8-Hr Ozone, 2023
PointSources
8%
Off-Road 41%
Fugitive Dust3%
99
Primary Emissions ResponsibilityPrimary Emissions Responsibilityby Agencyby Agency
Primary Emissions ResponsibilityPrimary Emissions Responsibilityby Agencyby Agency
(NOx, SOx, PM2.5) (VOC, NOx)
PM2.5, 2014
District20%
EPA24%
CARB56%
District23%
EPA20%
CARB57%
8-Hr Ozone, 2023
1010
VOC Annual Average Emissions VOC Annual Average Emissions 20142014
VOC Annual Average Emissions VOC Annual Average Emissions 20142014
107
78
2824 23 22 22
4445
54
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ConsumerProducts
Light-DutyPassenger
Cars
Light-DutyTrucks
Off-RoadEqupment
RecreationalBoats
PetroleumMarketing
ArchitecturalCoatings
Off-RoadRecreational
Heavy-DutyGasoline
Truck
Coatings &Related
Processes
ton
s p
er d
ay
1111
NOx Annual Average Emissions NOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014
NOx Annual Average Emissions NOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014
147
120
48 47
3127
23 23 22
90
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Heavy-DutyDiesel Trucks
Off-RoadEquipment
Ships &Commercial
Boats
Light-DutyPassenger
Cars
Light-DutyTrucks
Heavy-DutyGasolineTrucks
RECLAIM Trains Aircraft ResidentialFuel
Combustion
ton
s p
er d
ay
1212
SOx Annual Average Emissions SOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014
SOx Annual Average Emissions SOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014
12
2 1 1 1 1 0.5 0.5
48
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ships &Commercial
Boats
RECLAIM Aircraft PetroleumRefineries
Manufacturing& Industry
Combustion
Light-DutyPassenger
Cars
Service &CommercialCombustion
Light-DutyTrucks
ResidentialFuel
Combustion
Landfills
ton
s p
er d
ay
1313
Directly Emitted PM2.5Directly Emitted PM2.5Annual Average Emissions-2014Annual Average Emissions-2014
Directly Emitted PM2.5Directly Emitted PM2.5Annual Average Emissions-2014Annual Average Emissions-2014
20
15
76
5
3 3
4 4
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
Paved RoadDust
CommercialCooking
ResidentialFuel
Combustion
Ships &Commercial
Boats
Construction &Demolition
Dust
Heavy-DutyDiesel Trucks
Light-DutyPassenger
Cars
Light-DutyTrucks
Wood & Paper RecreationalBoats
ton
s p
er d
ay
1414
Goods MovementGoods MovementGrowth Growth
2001-20202001-2020
Goods MovementGoods MovementGrowth Growth
2001-20202001-2020
• 300 % increase in cargo through the ports
• 170% increase in truck travel
• 150% increase in rail cargo
1515
Design PrinciplesDesign Principles Design PrinciplesDesign Principles
• Expeditious Progress
• Meet Attainment Deadlines
• Minimize Cost Impacts to Degree Practicable
• All Feasible Measure and Promote Fair Share Responsibility
1616
Control Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy Design
• Step I– Maximum controls of SOx and directly emitted PM2.5– Necessary NOx controls– Modest VOC controls to ensure progress toward
ozone attainment
• Step II– Continue NOx control programs– Necessary VOC reductions
• Attainment Demonstration– All grid cells– At or below the standards
1717
2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy
• District’s Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures
• State and Federal Control Measures– CARB’s Proposed Concepts– District Staff’s Recommended State and
Federal Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures
• SCAG’s 2004 RTP/2006 RTIP• Long-Term Strategy
1818
Plan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan Summary
• Inclusive Control Strategy – 2015 PM2.5
Attainment – 2024 Ozone
Attainment
• 31 - Stationary Source Measures
• 30 - Mobile Source Measures
2014 2023
NOx 203 (29%)
383 (76%)
VOC 59 (11%)
116 (22%)
SOx 24 (56%)
---
PM2.5 14 (14%)
---
Emissions Reductions Needed
1919
Highlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control Measures
• New Development and Re-Development Projects
• Consumer Products Certification and Use Restrictions
• Facility Modernization
• Backstop Rule for Ports and Port-Related Facilities
2020
Highlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control Measures(cont)(cont)
Highlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control Measures(cont)(cont)
• Cleaner Fuel in Ocean Going Vessels Auxiliary and Main Engines
• Ocean-Going Vessels While At Berth At A California Port
• Off-Road Engine In-use Standards– Local Opt-in Surplus Reductions
• In-Use On-Road Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles
2121
Market Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive Programs
• Public/Private Investment to Accelerate Fleet Turnover– Carol Moyer Program– AB923– Prop 1B– Others
2222
Challenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the Horizon
• Revised 24-Hour PM2.5 Standard – 65 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3 – EPA designations finalized (12/2008?)– AQMP due three years following final
designation
• Revisions to the 8-Hour Ozone Standard– New standard: 0.075 ppm– Final designations finalized (12/2010)
2323
Predicted Maximum 24-hour Predicted Maximum 24-hour PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)Predicted Maximum 24-hour Predicted Maximum 24-hour PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)
SO428%
OC15%
EC9%
NH410%
NO326%
Other12%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2021
PM
2.5
ug/m
3 Standard35ug/m3
Speciated PM2.5
2424
SummarySummarySummarySummary
• Concerted effort underway to implement 2007 AQMP control strategy
• Federal partnership needed
• New air quality standards pose significant challenge to attainment by 2020 and beyond