11 April 2019
Tom KahlerDouglas PUD
PROGRAM PARTNERS
Annual Sockeye Escapement over Wells (Okanagan stock) or Tumwater (Wenatchee stock) Dams, 1977-2007
About 3 km of this…with 2 more km of setback levies
About 30 km of this…
Okanagan River in 1938 (above) and 1996 (below)
Figure from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018
McIntyre Dam – outlet to Vaseux Lake. Regulates Vaseux water elevation and diverts water for irrigation and domestic supply for the City of Oliver
Skaha Lake Dam – outlet of Skaha Lake at Okanagan Falls. Regulates Skaha Lake level.
Okanagan Lake Dam – outfall of Okanagan Lake at Penticton. Regulates the lake level of Okanagan Lake and Okanagan River discharge
Okanagan Basin Agreement
“The Comprehensive Framework Plan”
Provides the general rules for operating the Okanagan Lake Regulation System (OLRS)
Challenge 1:Large Variation in Annual Inflow
Challenge 2:
Water managers required to balance multiple competing objectives & trade-offs
Over space and time
Across multiple entities
Using incomplete or uncertain information
Okanagan Lake
Okanagan River at Penticton
Okanagan River at OK Falls
Okanagan River at Oliver
Osoyoos Lake
Okanagan Lake
Skaha Lake
Vaseaux Lake
Osoyoos Lake
· Flood control (< 342.75m)
· Shore spawning kokanee incubation
(lake draw-down from Oct-15 to Apr
less than 0.2 m)
· Domestic & agricultural water intakes
· Recreational navigation
· Flood control (< 60 m3.sec
-1)
· River recreation (> 10 m3.sec
-1,
Jul-Aug)
· Flood control (< 78 m3.sec
-1)
· Flood control (< 96 m3.sec
-1)
· Sockeye incubation (flows less than
30 m3.sec
-1 Nov - Apr/May)
· Domestic & agricultural water
intakes (> 6 m3.sec
-1)
· Recreational navigation
· Sockeye juveniles, temperature-
oxygen squeeze mitigation
(cumulative Jul 1 - Sep 30 inflows
~ 145 to 167 million m3+)
Okanagan Lake
Dam
Challenge 3:Low Level of Trust Between PartiesLimited engagement between water managers,
fisheries agencies, and First Nations on operational decisions
Perceptions by fisheries agencies and First Nations:
• Lack of transparency and inclusion
• Water managers giving greater weight to human-system concerns at the expense of ecosystem
concerns
Can we all just get along for the sake of the fish?
Short-list of recommended measures
from limiting-factors analysis
• Trap & transport adult sockeye to investigate losses
during migration
• Construct hypolimnetic siphon from Skaha Lake
• Improve water management
• Procure water licenses
• Inventory and screen diversions
• Construct spawning channel
• Restore engineered channel to more natural state
• Re-vegetate riverbanks
Short-list of recommended measures
from limiting-factors analysis
• Trap & transport adult sockeye to investigate losses
during migration
• Construct hypolimnetic siphon from Skaha Lake
• Improve water management
• Procure water licenses
• Inventory and screen diversions
• Construct spawning channel
• Restore engineered channel to more natural state
• Re-vegetate riverbanks
Compliance with OBIA Fishery Flows was low prior to 1998.R
IVER
FLO
W (
CM
S)
PREFERRED RANGE
From 1982-1997 river discharge exceeded OBIA fishery flows in:
(a) 13 of 16 yrs for adult migration
(b) 9 of 16 yrs for spawning and
(c) 7 of 16 yrs for egg incubation & fry migration
RIV
ER F
LOW
(C
MS)
RIV
ER F
LOW
(C
MS)
OBA preferred flow range
Observed flow range
(a) migration (b) spawning
(c) incubation
Water-system Operator Challenges
• Extreme weather events (rain, wind, etc.)
• Limited discharge capacities of dams.
• Limited river-channel capacity relative to instantaneous lake and river inflows.
• Uncertainty about forecasted freshet inflow volumes and timing, and matching to lake spill or storage capacity.
Water-system Operator Challenges (cont….)
• Effects of environmental variability (water levels, flow, temp.) on risk assessments given competing economic, social, & environmental demands of multiple “parties” & authorities.
• Lacking computational capacity for timely analysis of available data.
OLRS decisions about water storage or release were based on rules of thumb, past experience, and incomplete information.
alevin emergence & fry recruit
egg-incubation sub-model
fry lake rearing
SAR6
smolt production
Sockeye sub-model
Climate and Hydrology Sub-model
Climate and Water Temperature Sub-model
Kokanee egg-to-fry emergence sub-model
Okanagan Water Mgt. “Rules” Sub-model
3
5
4
2
1
Fish-Water Management Tools – Decision-Support System
The FWMT System is a coupled set of biophysical models of key relationships (among climate, water, fish, & property) used to predict the consequences of water mgt. decisions for fish & other water users.
The FWMT may be used to explore impacts of water-management decision in an operational mode employing real-timedata, a prospective-mode, or in a retrospective-mode using data from historic water supply, climate, & fish years.
7
Historic Data: Retrospective Analysis
Current Data: Real-time Analysis
Figure by ESSA Technologies Ltd., 2014
Image courtesy of the Okanagan Nation Alliance
Image courtesy of BC Hydro
Fish-Water
Management Tool
Decision Makers (Multidisciplinary Team)
Satellite
Snow Pack
Okanagan Lake
Okanagan River
Osoyoos Lake
Dam
OKANAGAN FISH & WATER MANAGEMENT TOOL
Adapted from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018
Flood risk
Resident fish
Recreation
Anadromous salmon
Rule 1: Don’t fill Okanagan Lake above 342.56 meters (i.e. 10 cm rise above 342.56 incurs $5-$10 million in “property” losses!)
Rule 2: Try to avoid drafting to lake levels below 341.50 meters. (i.e. problems with docks, water intakes, & vessel navigation become severe).
Rule 3: Minimize draw-down of Okanagan L. between the time of kokanee spawning and 100% fry emergence (i.e. minimize dewatering kokanee eggs & fry, but don’t risk violation of “rules” 1, 6, 7, 8, & 9)
Rule 4: Minimize the number of buildings flooded at Penticton
Rule 5: Provide summer flows for recreation if possible
Rule 6: Sockeye Migration – maintain flows (@ Oliver) between 8.5 & 12.7 cms during Aug 1 to Sept 15 to allow “easy” passage of VDS.
Rule 7: Sockeye Spawning – maintain flows between 9.9-15.6 cms during Sept 16-Oct 31 to maximize “good” spawning habitat.
Rule 8: Sockeye Incubation- flows at 5.0- 28.3 cms during Nov 1-Feb 15, i.e. egg incubation flows greater than or equal to 50 % of spawning flows & must not exceed 28.3 cms to avoid redd desiccation & scouring.
Rule 9: Sockeye Fry emergence-migration flows during Feb 16-Apr 30 at 5.0-28.3 cms.
Procedure for In-season Use…
Optimal Policy
(decision point)
Multiple Objectives
Scientific
Uncertainty
Value Differences
Base-case
Assumptions
Performance Measures
& Hazard ThresholdsAgree on…Inflow
Estimates
Individual analysis…
Group analysis…
Best Dam-release Policy: Point-of-view “X”
Adapted from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80O
ct-
01
Oct-
15
Oct-
29
Nov-1
2
Nov-2
6
Dec-1
0
Dec-2
4
Jan-0
7
Jan-2
1
Feb-0
4
Feb-1
8
Mar-
04
Mar-
18
Apr-
01
Apr-
15
Apr-
29
May-1
3
May-2
7
Jun-1
0
Jun-2
4
Jul-08
Jul-22
Aug-0
5
Aug-1
9
Sep-0
2
Sep-1
6
Sep-3
0
Oliv
er
dis
charg
e (
m3.s
-1)
AVG
HIGH
LOWSockeyeSpawning
Incubation
Emergence
Manage flood risk
scour threshold
desiccation threshold
Manage drought risk
Event timing & natural variations determine whether fish and water managers satisfy OBA rules & competing objectives
Hyatt et al. 2011
Okanagan River at Oliver - Average
Flood control
Domestic intakes
Ag. intakes
Sockeye Eggs
Sockeye Alevins
-5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
65.0
75.0
85.0
95.0
105.0
115.0
125.0
135.0
145.0
155.0O
ct-
07
Oct-
21
Nov-0
4
Nov-1
8
Dec-0
2
Dec-1
6
Dec-3
0
Jan-1
3
Jan-2
7
Feb-1
0
Feb-2
4
Mar-
09
Mar-
23
Apr-
06
Apr-
20
May-0
4
May-1
8
Jun-0
1
Jun-1
5
Jun-2
9
Jul-13
Jul-27
Aug-1
0
Aug-2
4
Sep-0
7
Sep-2
1
OK
Riv
er (
m3.s
ec
-1)
Okanagan Basin Agreement target to minimize redd scour
BC-Washington Co-Operative Plan minimum flow targets
Sockeye biologist’s rule of thumb to avoid de-watering
Multi-objective indicators from screen-capture in FWMT software
Okanagan River at Oliver - Average
Flood control
Domestic intakes
Ag. intakes
Sockeye Eggs
Sockeye Alevins
-5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
65.0
75.0
85.0
95.0
105.0
115.0
125.0
135.0
145.0
155.0
Oct
-07
Oct
-21
Nov-0
4
Nov-1
8
Dec-
02
Dec-
16
Dec-
30
Jan-1
3
Jan-2
7
Feb-1
0
Feb-2
4
Mar-
10
Mar-
24
Apr-
07
Apr-
21
May-0
5
May-1
9
Jun-0
2
Jun-1
6
Jun-3
0
Jul-
14
Jul-
28
Aug-1
1
Aug-2
5
Sep-0
8
Sep-2
2
OK
Riv
er
(m3.s
ec
-1)
Okanagan River at Oliver - Average
Flood control
Domestic intakes
Ag. intakes
Sockeye Eggs
Sockeye Alevins
-5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
65.0
75.0
85.0
95.0
105.0
115.0
125.0
135.0
145.0
155.0
Oct
-07
Oct
-21
Nov-0
4
Nov-1
8
Dec-
02
Dec-
16
Dec-
30
Jan-1
3
Jan-2
7
Feb-1
0
Feb-2
4
Mar-
10
Mar-
24
Apr-
07
Apr-
21
May-0
5
May-1
9
Jun-0
2
Jun-1
6
Jun-3
0
Jul-
14
Jul-
28
Aug-1
1
Aug-2
5
Sep-0
8
Sep-2
2
OK
Riv
er
(m3.s
ec
-1)
(A) Actual and predicted flows at Oliver (sockeye spawning grounds) 9-Feb-06
(B) Final outcome at Oliver (sockeye spawning grounds) 30-Sep-06
OKANAGAN FWMT 2005-2006 WATER
MANAGEMENT YEAR
Decision Point – Hydrograph Trending Toward Exceedance of Rules #8 & #9
Model Accurately Predicts Event
Okanagan (Osoyoos) Sockeye Emergence Timing
Okanagan Lake Kokanee Emergence Timing
Temperature-Oxygen “Squeeze” and Rearing Limitations in Osoyoos Lake
OSOYOOS LAKE
> 17 OC
< 4 ppm O2
De
pth
(m
)Useable Volume
North Basin Central Basin South Basin
Post-implementation Submodel: Temperature/Oxygen Squeeze in Osoyoos Lake
High Water Temperature
Low Oxygen Level
Compressed Habitable Zone for Fish
Figure from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018
FWMT WATER YEAR 2008 - 2009
Osoyoos Lake Average
Conditions and Modeled 2009 O2
Data
Osoyoos Lake - Average
Rearing sockeye fry
0
10
20
30
40
50
60O
ct-0
7
Oct
-21
Nov-0
4
Nov-1
8
Dec-
02
Dec-
16
Dec-
30
Jan-1
3
Jan-2
7
Feb-1
0
Feb-2
4
Mar-
10
Mar-
24
Apr-
07
Apr-
21
May-0
5
May-1
9
Jun-0
2
Jun-1
6
Jun-3
0
Jul-14
Jul-28
Aug-1
1
Aug-2
5
Sep-0
8
Sep-2
2
Oct
-06
Oct
-20
Nov-0
3
Nov-1
7
Dec-
01
Depth
(m
)
All yr depth (m) 17C isotherm
All yr depth (m) 4ppm O2
4 ppm O2 Isopleth depth (m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1-Ap
r
22-A
pr
13-M
ay
3-Ju
n
24-J
un
15-J
ul
5-Au
g
26-A
ug
16-S
ep
7-O
ct
28-O
ct
18-N
ov
Sampling Date (2009)
Dep
th (
m)
17°C Isopleth
4ppm O2 Isopleth
2009 Osoyoos Lake Temperature-
Oxygen “Squeeze”
Okanagan-FWMT Results to Date
• Balances consideration of multiple objectives (i.e. social, economic, cultural, ecological)
• Recognizes inflow forecast uncertainties,• Uses “rich” information sources refreshed in real-time (i.e.
annual to daily imports of biophysical data),• Facilitates effective input from limited pool of expertise,• Provides record of annual strategy and outcomes to assess
performance against multiple objectives.• Since deployment in fall of 2004 Canadians have avoided
(a) major drought and desiccation or most flood and scour losses of fry production in the Okanagan river, and (b) most temperature-Oxygen induced losses of fry rearing in Osoyoos Lake.
Impact of FWMT on Compliance with “Sockeye Friendly” Flow Requirements
Hyatt et al. 2015
Annual Sockeye Passage at Wells Dam, 1977 - 2018
Annual Sockeye Counts at Tumwater and Wells Dams 1977 - 2018
Density-independent losses of fry still occur but areeither beyond the influence of the FWMT…
Testalinden Creek Dam Failure, 13 June 2010
Testalinden Creek Dam Failure, 13 June 2010
Density-independent losses of fry still occur but…even though the FWMT can identify them, it can’t fix them
Strengths of This Approach
Efficiently integrate
current expert
understanding of
hydrology,
sockeye, kokanee,
& impacts on
people.
Expandable
Real-time data
allows response to
unexpected
stochastic events
Helps structure
collaborative
dialogue on
multiple
objectives &
tradeoffs
Web-accessible
model, trials,
parameters,
data, and
decisions
FWMT
Training a new generation
of collaborative water &
fish managers in BC-
FLNRORD, DFO, ONA
Adapted from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018
Questions?
Annual Sockeye Counts at Tumwater and Wells Dams 1977 - 2018
CJFAS 2015
Ruggerone and Connors 2015
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Year
Gro
wth
rate
s (
mm
/d)
Juvenile coho salmon growth (May-Oct)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher growth typically observed in even years
Marc Trudel, Diana Dobson, Steve Baillie, Mary Thiess, Strahan Tucker, and Linnea Flostrand, with a special contribution from Brian Wells - Salmon Ocean Ecology Meeting 2015, Victoria, BC
1997 Sockeye Dilemma
1997 Sockeye Dilemma
Scour Threshold Q En
d D
ate
Issues:
1. Very high inflow early season
forecast with high degree of
uncertainty.
2. Unclear relationship between Q above “threshold” & degree of
redd scour
A.
B.
C.
Adapted from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018
Okanagan River Discharge at Oliver - 1997
Redd-scour threshold 28cms