11 April 2019 - Chelan County, Washington...Tumwater (Wenatchee stock) Dams, 1977-2007. About 3 km of this…with 2 more km of ... supply for the City of Oliver. Skaha Lake Dam –outlet

11 April 2019

Tom KahlerDouglas PUD

PROGRAM PARTNERS

Annual Sockeye Escapement over Wells (Okanagan stock) or Tumwater (Wenatchee stock) Dams, 1977-2007

About 3 km of this…with 2 more km of setback levies

About 30 km of this…

Okanagan River in 1938 (above) and 1996 (below)

Figure from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018

McIntyre Dam – outlet to Vaseux Lake. Regulates Vaseux water elevation and diverts water for irrigation and domestic supply for the City of Oliver

Skaha Lake Dam – outlet of Skaha Lake at Okanagan Falls. Regulates Skaha Lake level.

Okanagan Lake Dam – outfall of Okanagan Lake at Penticton. Regulates the lake level of Okanagan Lake and Okanagan River discharge

Okanagan Basin Agreement

“The Comprehensive Framework Plan”

Provides the general rules for operating the Okanagan Lake Regulation System (OLRS)

Challenge 1:Large Variation in Annual Inflow

Challenge 2:

Water managers required to balance multiple competing objectives & trade-offs

Over space and time

Across multiple entities

Using incomplete or uncertain information

Okanagan Lake

Okanagan River at Penticton

Okanagan River at OK Falls

Okanagan River at Oliver

Osoyoos Lake

Okanagan Lake

Skaha Lake

Vaseaux Lake

Osoyoos Lake

· Flood control (< 342.75m)

· Shore spawning kokanee incubation

(lake draw-down from Oct-15 to Apr

less than 0.2 m)

· Domestic & agricultural water intakes

· Recreational navigation

· Flood control (< 60 m3.sec

-1)

· River recreation (> 10 m3.sec

-1,

Jul-Aug)


-1)


-1)

· Sockeye incubation (flows less than

30 m3.sec

-1 Nov - Apr/May)

· Domestic & agricultural water

intakes (> 6 m3.sec

-1)

· Recreational navigation

· Sockeye juveniles, temperature-

oxygen squeeze mitigation

(cumulative Jul 1 - Sep 30 inflows

~ 145 to 167 million m3+)

Okanagan Lake

Dam

Challenge 3:Low Level of Trust Between PartiesLimited engagement between water managers,

fisheries agencies, and First Nations on operational decisions

Perceptions by fisheries agencies and First Nations:

• Lack of transparency and inclusion

• Water managers giving greater weight to human-system concerns at the expense of ecosystem

concerns

Can we all just get along for the sake of the fish?

Short-list of recommended measures

from limiting-factors analysis

• Trap & transport adult sockeye to investigate losses

during migration

• Construct hypolimnetic siphon from Skaha Lake

• Improve water management

• Procure water licenses

• Inventory and screen diversions

• Construct spawning channel

• Restore engineered channel to more natural state

• Re-vegetate riverbanks

Short-list of recommended measures

from limiting-factors analysis

• Trap & transport adult sockeye to investigate losses

during migration

• Construct hypolimnetic siphon from Skaha Lake

• Improve water management

• Procure water licenses

• Inventory and screen diversions

• Construct spawning channel

• Restore engineered channel to more natural state

• Re-vegetate riverbanks

Compliance with OBIA Fishery Flows was low prior to 1998.R

IVER

FLO

W (

CM

S)

PREFERRED RANGE

From 1982-1997 river discharge exceeded OBIA fishery flows in:

(a) 13 of 16 yrs for adult migration

(b) 9 of 16 yrs for spawning and

(c) 7 of 16 yrs for egg incubation & fry migration

RIV

ER F

LOW

(C

MS)

RIV

ER F

LOW

(C

MS)

OBA preferred flow range

Observed flow range

(a) migration (b) spawning

(c) incubation

Water-system Operator Challenges

• Extreme weather events (rain, wind, etc.)

• Limited discharge capacities of dams.

• Limited river-channel capacity relative to instantaneous lake and river inflows.

• Uncertainty about forecasted freshet inflow volumes and timing, and matching to lake spill or storage capacity.

Water-system Operator Challenges (cont….)

• Effects of environmental variability (water levels, flow, temp.) on risk assessments given competing economic, social, & environmental demands of multiple “parties” & authorities.

• Lacking computational capacity for timely analysis of available data.

OLRS decisions about water storage or release were based on rules of thumb, past experience, and incomplete information.

alevin emergence & fry recruit

egg-incubation sub-model

fry lake rearing

SAR6

smolt production

Sockeye sub-model

Climate and Hydrology Sub-model

Climate and Water Temperature Sub-model

Kokanee egg-to-fry emergence sub-model

Okanagan Water Mgt. “Rules” Sub-model

3

5

4

2

1

Fish-Water Management Tools – Decision-Support System

The FWMT System is a coupled set of biophysical models of key relationships (among climate, water, fish, & property) used to predict the consequences of water mgt. decisions for fish & other water users.

The FWMT may be used to explore impacts of water-management decision in an operational mode employing real-timedata, a prospective-mode, or in a retrospective-mode using data from historic water supply, climate, & fish years.

7

Historic Data: Retrospective Analysis

Current Data: Real-time Analysis

Figure by ESSA Technologies Ltd., 2014

Image courtesy of the Okanagan Nation Alliance

Image courtesy of BC Hydro

Fish-Water

Management Tool

Decision Makers (Multidisciplinary Team)

Satellite

Snow Pack

Okanagan Lake

Okanagan River

Osoyoos Lake

Dam

OKANAGAN FISH & WATER MANAGEMENT TOOL

Adapted from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018

Flood risk

Resident fish

Recreation

Anadromous salmon

Rule 1: Don’t fill Okanagan Lake above 342.56 meters (i.e. 10 cm rise above 342.56 incurs $5-$10 million in “property” losses!)

Rule 2: Try to avoid drafting to lake levels below 341.50 meters. (i.e. problems with docks, water intakes, & vessel navigation become severe).

Rule 3: Minimize draw-down of Okanagan L. between the time of kokanee spawning and 100% fry emergence (i.e. minimize dewatering kokanee eggs & fry, but don’t risk violation of “rules” 1, 6, 7, 8, & 9)

Rule 4: Minimize the number of buildings flooded at Penticton

Rule 5: Provide summer flows for recreation if possible

Rule 6: Sockeye Migration – maintain flows (@ Oliver) between 8.5 & 12.7 cms during Aug 1 to Sept 15 to allow “easy” passage of VDS.

Rule 7: Sockeye Spawning – maintain flows between 9.9-15.6 cms during Sept 16-Oct 31 to maximize “good” spawning habitat.

Rule 8: Sockeye Incubation- flows at 5.0- 28.3 cms during Nov 1-Feb 15, i.e. egg incubation flows greater than or equal to 50 % of spawning flows & must not exceed 28.3 cms to avoid redd desiccation & scouring.

Rule 9: Sockeye Fry emergence-migration flows during Feb 16-Apr 30 at 5.0-28.3 cms.

Procedure for In-season Use…

Optimal Policy

(decision point)

Multiple Objectives

Scientific

Uncertainty

Value Differences

Base-case

Assumptions

Performance Measures

& Hazard ThresholdsAgree on…Inflow

Estimates

Individual analysis…

Group analysis…

Best Dam-release Policy: Point-of-view “X”


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80O

ct-

01

Oct-

15

Oct-

29

Nov-1

2

Nov-2

6

Dec-1

0

Dec-2

4

Jan-0

7

Jan-2

1

Feb-0

4

Feb-1

8

Mar-

04

Mar-

18

Apr-

01

Apr-

15

Apr-

29

May-1

3

May-2

7

Jun-1

0

Jun-2

4

Jul-08

Jul-22

Aug-0

5

Aug-1

9

Sep-0

2

Sep-1

6

Sep-3

0

Oliv

er

dis

charg

e (

m3.s

-1)

AVG

HIGH

LOWSockeyeSpawning

Incubation

Emergence

Manage flood risk

scour threshold

desiccation threshold

Manage drought risk

Event timing & natural variations determine whether fish and water managers satisfy OBA rules & competing objectives

Hyatt et al. 2011

Okanagan River at Oliver - Average

Flood control

Domestic intakes

Ag. intakes

Sockeye Eggs

Sockeye Alevins

-5.0

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

85.0

95.0

105.0

115.0

125.0

135.0

145.0

155.0O

ct-

07

Oct-

21

Nov-0

4

Nov-1

8

Dec-0

2

Dec-1

6

Dec-3

0

Jan-1

3

Jan-2

7

Feb-1

0

Feb-2

4

Mar-

09

Mar-

23

Apr-

06

Apr-

20

May-0

4

May-1

8

Jun-0

1

Jun-1

5

Jun-2

9

Jul-13

Jul-27

Aug-1

0

Aug-2

4

Sep-0

7

Sep-2

1

OK

Riv

er (

m3.s

ec

-1)

Okanagan Basin Agreement target to minimize redd scour

BC-Washington Co-Operative Plan minimum flow targets

Sockeye biologist’s rule of thumb to avoid de-watering

Multi-objective indicators from screen-capture in FWMT software


Flood control

Domestic intakes

Ag. intakes

Sockeye Eggs

Sockeye Alevins

-5.0

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

85.0

95.0

105.0

115.0

125.0

135.0

145.0

155.0

Oct

-07

Oct

-21

Nov-0

4

Nov-1

8

Dec-

02

Dec-

16

Dec-

30

Jan-1

3

Jan-2

7

Feb-1

0

Feb-2

4

Mar-

10

Mar-

24

Apr-

07

Apr-

21

May-0

5

May-1

9

Jun-0

2

Jun-1

6

Jun-3

0

Jul-

14

Jul-

28

Aug-1

1

Aug-2

5

Sep-0

8

Sep-2

2

OK

Riv

er

(m3.s

ec

-1)


Flood control

Domestic intakes

Ag. intakes

Sockeye Eggs

Sockeye Alevins

-5.0

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

85.0

95.0

105.0

115.0

125.0

135.0

145.0

155.0

Oct

-07

Oct

-21

Nov-0

4

Nov-1

8

Dec-

02

Dec-

16

Dec-

30

Jan-1

3

Jan-2

7

Feb-1

0

Feb-2

4

Mar-

10

Mar-

24

Apr-

07

Apr-

21

May-0

5

May-1

9

Jun-0

2

Jun-1

6

Jun-3

0

Jul-

14

Jul-

28

Aug-1

1

Aug-2

5

Sep-0

8

Sep-2

2

OK

Riv

er

(m3.s

ec

-1)

(A) Actual and predicted flows at Oliver (sockeye spawning grounds) 9-Feb-06

(B) Final outcome at Oliver (sockeye spawning grounds) 30-Sep-06

OKANAGAN FWMT 2005-2006 WATER

MANAGEMENT YEAR

Decision Point – Hydrograph Trending Toward Exceedance of Rules #8 & #9

Model Accurately Predicts Event

Okanagan (Osoyoos) Sockeye Emergence Timing

Okanagan Lake Kokanee Emergence Timing

Temperature-Oxygen “Squeeze” and Rearing Limitations in Osoyoos Lake

OSOYOOS LAKE

> 17 OC

< 4 ppm O2

De

pth

(m

)Useable Volume

North Basin Central Basin South Basin

Post-implementation Submodel: Temperature/Oxygen Squeeze in Osoyoos Lake

High Water Temperature

Low Oxygen Level

Compressed Habitable Zone for Fish

Figure from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018

FWMT WATER YEAR 2008 - 2009

Osoyoos Lake Average

Conditions and Modeled 2009 O2

Data

Osoyoos Lake - Average

Rearing sockeye fry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60O

ct-0

7

Oct

-21

Nov-0

4

Nov-1

8

Dec-

02

Dec-

16

Dec-

30

Jan-1

3

Jan-2

7

Feb-1

0

Feb-2

4

Mar-

10

Mar-

24

Apr-

07

Apr-

21

May-0

5

May-1

9

Jun-0

2

Jun-1

6

Jun-3

0

Jul-14

Jul-28

Aug-1

1

Aug-2

5

Sep-0

8

Sep-2

2

Oct

-06

Oct

-20

Nov-0

3

Nov-1

7

Dec-

01

Depth

(m

)

All yr depth (m) 17C isotherm

All yr depth (m) 4ppm O2

4 ppm O2 Isopleth depth (m)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1-Ap

r

22-A

pr

13-M

ay

3-Ju

n

24-J

un

15-J

ul

5-Au

g

26-A

ug

16-S

ep

7-O

ct

28-O

ct

18-N

ov

Sampling Date (2009)

Dep

th (

m)

17°C Isopleth

4ppm O2 Isopleth

2009 Osoyoos Lake Temperature-

Oxygen “Squeeze”

Okanagan-FWMT Results to Date

• Balances consideration of multiple objectives (i.e. social, economic, cultural, ecological)

• Recognizes inflow forecast uncertainties,• Uses “rich” information sources refreshed in real-time (i.e.

annual to daily imports of biophysical data),• Facilitates effective input from limited pool of expertise,• Provides record of annual strategy and outcomes to assess

performance against multiple objectives.• Since deployment in fall of 2004 Canadians have avoided

(a) major drought and desiccation or most flood and scour losses of fry production in the Okanagan river, and (b) most temperature-Oxygen induced losses of fry rearing in Osoyoos Lake.

Impact of FWMT on Compliance with “Sockeye Friendly” Flow Requirements

Hyatt et al. 2015

Annual Sockeye Passage at Wells Dam, 1977 - 2018

Annual Sockeye Counts at Tumwater and Wells Dams 1977 - 2018

Density-independent losses of fry still occur but areeither beyond the influence of the FWMT…

Testalinden Creek Dam Failure, 13 June 2010

Testalinden Creek Dam Failure, 13 June 2010

Density-independent losses of fry still occur but…even though the FWMT can identify them, it can’t fix them

Strengths of This Approach

Efficiently integrate

current expert

understanding of

hydrology,

sockeye, kokanee,

& impacts on

people.

Expandable

Real-time data

allows response to

unexpected

stochastic events

Helps structure

collaborative

dialogue on

multiple

objectives &

tradeoffs

Web-accessible

model, trials,

parameters,

data, and

decisions

FWMT

Training a new generation

of collaborative water &

fish managers in BC-

FLNRORD, DFO, ONA


Questions?

Annual Sockeye Counts at Tumwater and Wells Dams 1977 - 2018

CJFAS 2015

Ruggerone and Connors 2015

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Year

Gro

wth

rate

s (

mm

/d)

Juvenile coho salmon growth (May-Oct)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Higher growth typically observed in even years

Marc Trudel, Diana Dobson, Steve Baillie, Mary Thiess, Strahan Tucker, and Linnea Flostrand, with a special contribution from Brian Wells - Salmon Ocean Ecology Meeting 2015, Victoria, BC

1997 Sockeye Dilemma

1997 Sockeye Dilemma

Scour Threshold Q En

d D

ate

Issues:

1. Very high inflow early season

forecast with high degree of

uncertainty.

2. Unclear relationship between Q above “threshold” & degree of

redd scour

A.

B.

C.


Okanagan River Discharge at Oliver - 1997

Redd-scour threshold 28cms

Documents

11 April 2019 - Chelan County, Washington...Tumwater (Wenatchee stock) Dams, 1977-2007. About 3 km of this…with 2 more km of ... supply for the City of Oliver. Skaha Lake Dam –outlet