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Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
HOME
⚫ • Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed ⚫ • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
NCoMM
NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
Cotton|Sugar|Soybean|RM Seed| Castor seed|Turmeric | Jeera
OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress| Advance estimates |Kharif and rabiMSP
ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S
QUIZ
Castor | RM Seed | Turmeric
ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S QUIZ
WEEKLY ONLINE QUIZ Click on the link above to participate
Participate in our weekly quiz and get a chance to win Amazon gift coupons. Winners will be announced in next report and rewarded.
NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Castor seed prices continue to trade range bound with slight
bullishness due to expected decline in production by 20 to 25 per cent
during the current season because of deficient rainfall in key Castor
growing belts of Gujarat during monsoon. Moreover, higher exports
of Castor compared to last year are also supporting the commodity.
• Castor seed for Deesa plant delivery available at Rs 5,175 per quintal.
Similarly, castor oil is trading around Rs 1,055 per 10 kg in Kadi. Castor
meal is trading around Rs 5,800 per tonne in Deesa.
• According to Gujarat (Deesa) based traders new crop arrivals have
started, but the pace is very slow due to lower crop however supply is
likely to gain pace in coming days. The new crop quality is satisfactory.
• As per market sources, despite lower production prospects in Gujarat,
the castor prices traded under pressure in last two month as export
demand for meal and oil were not encouraging.
• All India Castor seed acreage in 2018 increased to 9.18 lakh hectares up
by 5.05 per cent from last year acreage of 8.74 lakh hectares and 25
per cent down by normal area of 10.51 lakh hectares.
• According to traders, Castor seed production is expected to decline at
around 8-9 lakh tonnes. They also estimated present Castor stocks in
the country to be around 3-4 lakh tonnes against 7-8 lakh tonnes in the
same period last year.
• According to the latest 2nd Advance estimates released by the Gujarat
Agriculture department Castor seed production in the state estimated
to decline by 30 per cent at 10.43 lakh tonnes as compared to 14.84
lakh tonnes in 2017-18 due to deficient rainfall received in major castor
growing belts during the 2018 monsoon.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture 1st Advance Estimates for 2018-19,
Castor seed production is estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as compared
to 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18.
• As per the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, Castor meal export
during the month of November surged 68.59 per cent at 30,724 metric
tonnes as compared to 18,224 metric tonnes a month ago. However,
the overall April to November 2018-19 exports registered a decline of
37 per cent at 2,59,319 tonnes as compared to 4,16,699 tonnes during
the corresponding period last year.
• As on 20th January Castor seed stocks at NCCL approved warehouses
increased to 70,907 metric tonnes as compared to 48,755 metric
tonnes.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
21-01-2019 14-01-2019 % Change
Deesa 5240 5237 0.05
Kadi 5075 5015 1.19
Sabarkantha 5100 5075 0.49
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Improved demand from domestic and overseas buyers
Bullish
Trade source expecting 20 to 25 per cent decline in production
Bullish
New crop arrivals in various spot markets of Gujarat
Bearish
Profit booking at higher levels Bearish
Castor production in Gujarat to decline at 10.43 lakh tonnes as against 14.84 lakh tonnes
Bullish
Castor meal export in November increased by 68.59 per cent at 30,724 tonnes as against 18,224 tonnes a month ago
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
2800
3240
3680
4120
4560
5000
5440
5880
6320
6760
Se
p-1
6
Oct
-16
No
v-16
De
c-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oct
-17
No
v-17
De
c-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct
-18
No
v-18
De
c-18
Jan
-19
Castor - Deesa
CASTOR
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Rapeseed and Mustard prices in most of the spot across the country
and also the futures have remained range bound with slight weak
tone tracking subdued demand against steady supplies.
• According to the traders, new mustard crop of Uttar Pradesh may
start hitting the market by January end. Crop condition of the
standing mustard crop is good and farmers are expecting same
amount of yield this year as compare to last year.
• NAFED has sold 89.5 thousand tonnes of Mustard as on 15th January
and is the highest for the NAFED for this season in the first 15 months.
The auctioned prices are at par with the market rate and thus have
found string interest among crushers amidst tapering supplies in the
market.
• Most of the Industry players are estimating bumper crop this year
with current better sowing prospects and favourable weather
conditions. With the total sown area to hover near 68.70 lakh hectare
(higher by almost 3% on y-o-y basis), output is estimated to go beyond
70 lakh tons. In the largest-producing state (Rajasthan), the weather,
too, has been conducive to growth as there was no report of pest
infestation or any other problem in mustard cultivating areas. The
next one-and-a-half month will be crucial as the crop is in its key
growth phase.
• Demand for rapeseed meal remains subdued from exporters and so
the seed prices were not able to surge despite rally in other oilseeds
markets. Even though the market is projecting high demand on the
way from China front, as they will be lifting ban on Indian meal, but
that high exports would provide support to prices in long term only.
• Meanwhile, market might observe minor gain on the back of short
covering and higher Soyabean prices.
• According to the latest rabi sowing progress report, as on 18th
January 2019 all India mustard acreage for 2018-19 is reported at 68.66
lakh hectares which is 2.8 per cent higher than 2017- 18 acreage of
66.77 lakh hectares.
• The Ministry of Agriculture has targeted Mustard production for 2018-
19 at 84.86 lakh metric tonnes. Mustard production estimate for 2017-
18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes which is 5.11 per cent higher than the
2016-17 production estimates of 79.17 lakh metric tonnes.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
21-01-2019 14-01-2019 % Change
Ganganagar 4060 4075 -0.36
Bikaner 3865 3916 -1.30
Kota 4200 4102 2.38
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Subdued demand from crushers and stockiest
Bearish
New crop arrivals in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan
Bearish
Expectation of higher crop production this year with current favourable crop prospects
Bearish
Traders expecting higher demand from China in coming days
Bullish
Increase in acreage during current season as compared to last year
Bearish
Buying at lower levels Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
Se
p-1
6
Oct
-16
Oct
-16
No
v…
De
c-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
…
Jun
-17
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oct
-17
No
v-17
De
c-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
…
Ap
r-18
May
…
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
8
Au
g…
Se
p-1
8
Oct
-18
No
v…
De
c-18
Jan
-19
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
RM SEED
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Turmeric prices in most of the spot markets across the country
remained weak as demand from North India was reported sluggish
due to cold wave conditions. As far as export demand is concerned it
has also remained subdued.
• According to traders, the arrivals of new crop in the spot markets at
lower pace have also kept the price trend weak and are expecting
further pick up in new crop arrivals in coming weeks.
• Turmeric prices have remained under pressure. But in medium to long
term prices are likely to move on higher side due to crop damage
reports from key Turmeric producing regions of Maharashtra. In
Maharashtra deficit rainfall was reported in Hingoli, Sangli, Nanded,
Basmat etc. affecting Turmeric crop.
• As per trade information, the all India Turmeric stocks are reported
around 24 lakh bags in the spot markets.
• In Nizamabad spot market, current season from 15th January 2018 to
11th January 2019, supply reported around 85,855 MT compared to
82,166 MT in the corresponding period last year, 3.5 per cent reported
up from last year.
• As per trade information, currently standing crop is likely to witness a
damage of around 15 – 20 per cent.
• As per market sources, Turmeric production for 2019 is estimated at
532,353 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 476,771 MT.
Turmeric production may go down further as Maharashtra standing
crop is at very crucial stage.
• Turmeric acreage in Andhra Pradesh is reported at 18,737 hectares as
compared to 14,841 hectares last year, more than 100 per cent sowing
completed from season normal.
• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as
compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.
Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season. Normal
area reported 54,878 hectares.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in
2017-18 estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes
estimated in 2016-17.
• According to Spice Board of India, Turmeric exports during 2017-18
stood at 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.16 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
21-01-2019 14-01-2019 % Change
Nizamabad 6836 6916 -1.15
Salem 7017 7342 -4.42
Chamarajnagar 7400 7300 1.36
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Weak domestic and export demand in spot markets
Bearish
Arrivals of new crop and expectation of further pick up in crop arrival activities
Bearish
Higher Turmeric crop acreage during current season as compared to last year
Bearish
Trade sources estimating a decline in crop production by 15 to 20 per cent
Bullish
Buying at lower levels Bullish
Turmeric exports in 2017-18 declined to 1.07 lakh tonnes as against 1.16 lakh tonnes in 2016-17
Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
4800
5500
6200
6900
7600
8300
9000
9700
Jun
-16
Jul-1
6A
ug
-16
Se
p-1
6O
ct-1
6N
ov-
16D
ec-
16Ja
n-1
7Ja
n-1
7Fe
b-1
7M
ar-1
7A
pr-
17M
ay-1
7Ju
n-1
7Ju
l-17
Au
g-1
7S
ep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
De
c-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8A
ug
-18
Se
p-1
8O
ct-1
8O
ct-1
8N
ov-
18D
ec-
18Ja
n-1
9
Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad
TURMERIC
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• Commodity yearbook launched
• Sugar output to drop to 30.7
million tonnes: ISMA
• Agri sector reforms need of the
hour to boost economic growth
of India • India, China sign protocol for
export of Indian tobacco to
Chinese market
• New rice variety has ‘higher yield,
nutrition, pest resistance’
• Govt mulls paying farmers in cash
instead of subsidies
• As millets turn food of choice in
cities, traders reap a rich harvest
• China to import Indian tobacco
• Edible oil imports jump 11% in
December, may rise further on
duty cut
To purchase the India Commodity
Year Book 2019, contact us at
Official Production Estimates
First advance estimates 2018-19 &
previous years’ estimates: Fourth
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1550 1750
paddy grade A 1590 1770
Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430
Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450
Bajra 1425 1950
Ragi 1900 2897
Maize 1425 1700
Tur/Arhar 5450 5675
Moong 5575 6975
Urad 5400 5600
Groundnut 4450 4890
Sunflower seed 4100 5388
Soyabean black 3050 3399
Sesamum 5300 6249
Nigerseed 4050 5877
Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150
Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450
RABI
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
Wheat 1735 1840
Barley 1410 1440
Gram 4400 4620
Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475
Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200
Safflower 4100 4945
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago
21-Jan-19 07-Jan-19 22-Dec-18 22-Jan-18
Soybean 3827 3505 3413 3524
RM seed 4150 4117 4136 4013
Turmeric 6836 6979 7040 7580
Cotton 12109 12162.35 12296 11825
Chilli 9500 9200 9500 10000
Jeera 18170 18280 18308 20115
Castor 5215 5326 5147 4109
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and
market-wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
All India Weather status
Last week all India Rainfall status: 10th Jan 2019 to 16th Jan 2019
• Rajasthan State received the excess rainfall
• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana,
Chandigarh, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh states received the large deficit rainfall.
• Jammu & Kashmir state received the deficit rainfall
• No rainfall is observed in Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Odisha, Madhya
Pradesh, Gujarat), Goa, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka
and Kerala states
During the week, rainfall was below Long Period Average (LPA) by 73 % over the country as a whole
.
Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st Jan 2019 to 21th Jan 2019.
• Jammu & Kashmir state received the excess rainfall.
• Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan states received deficit rainfall.
• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram ,Sikkim ,Bihar ,Uttar
Pradesh , Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab ,Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states received the
large deficit rainfall
• No rainfall is observed in the states of Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gujarat, Goa,
Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 01 January to 15th January 2019 was
below LPA by 50% over the country as a whole.
Weather Forecast:
• Dense fog is likely to prevail over parts of northern plains during the morning hours.
• The night minimum temperatures are likely to fall once again from 26 January to their slightly below normal values over major parts of
India, outside east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam & Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura ad Karnataka, where they are likely to be
warmer than normal by 1-30 C
• From 22th January, the minimum temperatures are likely to rise over northwest India. As a consequence, warmer than normal night
minimum temperatures are likely to prevail over major parts of northwest India ( Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand,
Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and Rajasthan)
Reservoirs status: as on 10th Jan’2019
Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in
the country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion
Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of
these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have
irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs
as on 10th January, 2019 has been 80.40 BCM as against
81.24 BCM on 10.01.2018 (last year) and 86.73 BCM of
normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s
storage is 99% of last year’s storage and nearly 93% of
average of last 10 year’s storage.
Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Impact of weather on major crops
Crop All India
Acreage
Current crop condition
Wheat 306.29
Major wheat growing states are Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar,
Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan. Sowing is done in
entire state. Crop in in tilering to heading stage. Wheat crop is struggling in partial
irrigated area while it is in normal condition in rest of India. Overall crop condition is
normal.
Rapeseed
&Mustard 61.25
Major rapeseed growing states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Madhya
Pradesh. Crop sowing is completed and is currently in flowering to grain filling stage.
Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Further,
moisture in the soil is decreasing continuously in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and
Rajasthan. Overall crop condition is normal.
Chickpea 89.45
Major gram sowing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar
Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gram sowing is completed, and crop is
currently in pod formation stage. Incidence of disease and insect has been observed
in some regions like Maharashtra (affected by damping off), Madhya Pradesh &
Rajasthan (affected by frost). Crop is currently struggling in rainfed area because of
very limited rainfall in the region till second week of January, however, rainfall
received in third week of January may be very beneficial for crop health & yield.
Overall crop condition is below-normal to normal.
Lentil 13.94
Major lentil crop sowing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (Buldelkhand
region). Crop sowing is completed, and crop is currently in flowering stage. Incidence
of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Crop acreage is almost
same in comparison to last year. Crop is currently struggling in some parts of rainfed
area because of very limited rainfall till second week of January, however, rainfall
received in third week of January may be very beneficial for crop health & yield.
Overall current crop condition is normal.
* Rainfall received in third week of January and onwards may be very beneficial for crop health &
yield.
Acreage in lacs Hectare as on date 18th January’ 2019
Source: Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
yy
link ANSWERS & LUCKY
WINNER OF PREVIOUS
WEEK’S QUIZ
NCoMMQUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS
THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!
1. What is the target set for 2018-19 Chana production by Government?
10.50 million tonnes
2. As per the report by how much per cent the Chana acreage is lagging?
10.14 per cent
1750 per quintal
3. What is the MSP of Paddy common for marketing year 2018-19?
Name Department Name Department Ankur Srivastava Mktyard yogesh sanwarmal sharma IT
Pawar Sai SHiva SHankar Mktyard Anilkumar Parvathaneni Risk
Ansh Aggarwal SCM Anand Pandey S&P
sarita mittal SCM Rahul maroti YENGADE Mktyard
Vikas Kumar CM Pawan Joshi Mktyard
SHRIKANT PATIL S&P YOGENDRA SINGH Others
Om Singh CM S Srinivasu S&P
Rahul jain Risk Pravin Pandharinath Jagtap Non-NCMLite
Twinkle Gupta S&P Shailender Sharma Others
Meenakshi Gupta HR&Admin AJENDRA SINGH CHAUHAN Mktyard
Nagina Gowda S&P Vanisha Vij HR&Admin
Vivekanand Gurjar T&C Basant Vaid SCM
LUCKY WINNER!
Yogesh Sanwarmal Sharma
IT Mumbai
CONGRATULATIONS!
Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
sory Team
Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive:TCIG [email protected]
Shefali Jain Operation Executive: TCIG [email protected]
Disclaimer:
This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the
addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised
reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.
No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting
from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are
based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on
which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.
© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2019