YGVA Post-Elect 11-08-2013 Major Findings

8/14/2019 YGVA Post-Elect 11-08-2013 Major Findings

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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and maximize their base and split the middle. This doesn’t leave much error for the liberals

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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• Ideologically, Cuccinelli was “about right” (60%) vs. “too conservative” (19%)

• Ideologically, McAuliffe was “about right” (10%) vs. “too liberal” (74%)

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• They’re much more likely to be Republicans (65%) than Democrats (11%)

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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him was “dislike Cuccinelli” (26%). “Democrat” (18%) and “Good views/positions” (13%) were the

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• “Stance on women’s rights” (14%) and “Republican” (12%) were the most important reasons why

/0Y356DD# ;-&#"$ ;-&#' YeYV:8B M3006%#556J• Among Cuccinelli voters, “Republican” (19%) was the single most important reason why they

supported him. Their disliking of McAuliffe (14%) was much lower than McAuliffe voters’ disliking o

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• When looking at perceived ideology, 49% of voters said Cuccinelli was “too conservative” compare

to 42% who said McAuliffe was “too liberal.” Four in ten (39%) said McAuliffe’s ideology was “abou

right” compared to 31% who said the same for Cuccinelli.

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5#' PTQ &- P>QJ W6;# C#"0#%& RUQS H-35' .2;# ;-&#' D-" 2%-&.#" 02%'6'2&# 2%' <Q H#"# 3%2)5# &-C"-;6'# 2 "#$C-%$#J

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V%'#C#%'#%&$= PTQ &- AAQJ

• VD 16#3&#%2%& e-;#"%-" K655 K-556%4 .2' "3% 2426%$& /0Y356DD#= .# 5#' PAQ &- A^QJ W6;# C#"0#%& RUQS

H-35' .2;# ;-&#' D-" 2%-&.#" 02%'6'2&# 2%' @TQ H#"# 3%2)5# &- C"-;6'# 2 "#$C-%$#J

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O#9-0"2&$ $3CC-"&6%4 /0Y356DD# 2%' V%'#C#%'#%&$ D2;-"6%4 K-556%4 PAQ &- >TQJVA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*XB 5,67 – 9:.;7%,( O():?6%6

• Y59-$& .25D -D ;-&#"$ RPZQS .2;# 2% 3%D2;-"2)5# -C6%6-% -D &.# B#2 !2"&*= H.65#

37% are favorable. It is important to note the intensity, as 40% have a “very”

unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party, while only 17% are “very” favorable.

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RTPQS 2"# 3%D2;-"2)5# &-H2"'$ &.# B#2 !2"&*J

F G64.& 6% &#% R^ZQS O#9-0"2&$ 2"# 3%D2;-"2)5# &- &.# B#2 !2"&*= H.65# TUQ -

Republicans are favorable to the Tea Party. Independents’ views on the Tea

!2"&* 2"# $69652" &- &.# -;#"255 %39)#"$= A^Q D2;-"2)5# &- U@Q 3%D2;-"2)5#

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2"# @TQ -D 0-%$#";2&6;#$J

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*XB 5,67 – 9:.;7%,( O():?6%6

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R>PQSJ

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*XB 5,67 – 9:.;7%,( O():?6%6

• Nearly eight in ten (79%) agree that the candidates in the Governor’s race

$.-35' .2;# D-03$#' 9-"# -% #0-%-960 2%' C-0I#&)--I 6$$3#$= $30. 2$ 0"#2&6%

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&.6$ 2$$#"&6-%= H.65# 9-'#"2&#$ H#"# 9-$& 56I#5* &- 24"## 2& <>QJ

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*XB 5,67 – 9:.;7%,( O():?6%6

• Seven in ten (69%) agree that “our basic fundamental constitutional rights and

liberties are under attack,” while 27% disagree.

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2%' 0-%$#";2&6;#$ 2"# "#$C-%$6)5#J

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*RB aD%:. 5&.6%>.(7 A0)/) [,( 7D.6. -,7.&6 :)67 ?.)&T 7D. /)J,&%7? '%-.6 D%/ )

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;D.;` )(> 0):)(;.B

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92"46%J• Y 92`-"6&* RU@QS '6$2CC"-;# -D &.# `-) &.2& N)292 6$ '-6%4 2$ !"#$6'#%&= H.65#

47% approve. Intensity is much stronger on the negative side, as 43% “strongly

disapprove, while only 23% “strongly” approve.

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24#%'2 &- PPQ 0.#0I 2%' )252%0#J

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*bB QD. O@@,&>)0:. R)&. O;7 EA0)/);)&.G

• [25D -D ;-&#"$ RU?QS -CC-$# &.# YDD-"'2)5# M2"# Y0&= H.65# P^Q D2;-" 6&J /-"#

“strongly” oppose the Affordable Care Act than “strongly” support it, 41% to

A?QJ

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#20.J

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*9B C.>%;)%> 9SF)(6%,(

• V% 2% 6%D-"9#' 0.-60# 9-'#5 d3#$&6-%= PTQ $2* E6"46%62 $.-35' #bC2%' /#'602

because Virginia’s hospitals currently pay a disproportionate share of the costs

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/-'#"2&#$ D2;-" #bC2%'6%4 /#'6026' )* 2 PZQ &- AUQ 92"46%J

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*KB QD.&. )&. ;:.)&:? ;,//,( 6.(6. .;,(,/%; F,:%;%.6 7D)7 D)-. 0&,)> 6=FF,&7

)/,(' /,67 '&,=F6B

• Greater than three in four (77%) favor “reducing regulations and taxes on smal

businesses to create jobs,” including 52% who “strongly” favor this proposal.

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9-'#"2&#$ 2%' T@Q -D 56)#"25$ D2;-"6%4 &.6$ C"-C-$25J

• Three in four (75%) agree that “allowing the private sector to grow the econom

would enable business owners to give meaningful raises to workers,” while onl

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• Two in three (67%) agree that “Virginia has a great diversity of energy resource

2;2652)5#J B- 9##& -3" #%#"4* %##'$= H# $.-35' #bC2%' -DD$.-"# '"6556%4 2%'

increase energy exploration on federal lands.” TwentyF$#;#% C#"0#%& R>^QS

'6$24"##J

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H.65# 56)#"25$ '6$24"## )* 2 U>Q &- PAQ 92"46%J

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*"B V>.,:,'%;): O&'=/.(76 – Y,[.& 7)S.6T :.66 6F.(>%(' )(> &.'=:)7%,(6 )(> F)7%.(78

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);;,=(7)0:.B

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U?Q &- P?Q 92"46%J 16)#"25$ 2"# 9-"# 56I#5* &- C"#D#" O#5#42&# K= TUQ &- >UQJ

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*"B V>.,:,'%;): O&'=/.(76 – Y,[.& 7)S.6T :.66 6F.(>%(' )(> &.'=:)7%,(6 )(> F)7%.(78

;.(7.&.> D.):7D;)&. &.@,&/ 0.676 /,&. ',-.&(/.(7 6F.(>%(' )(> &.'=:)7%,(6T /,&. 7

&.-.(=.6 7, F)? @,& 7&)(6F,&7)7%,( )(> .>=;)7%,( )(> D,:>%(' %(6=&)(;. ;,/F)(%.6

);;,=(7)0:.B

• When these arguments were framed in terms of “fairness,” opinions were more divided

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*WB 5=0:%; RD)&7.& <;D,,:6 – +.)&:? 6%S %( 7.( 6=FF,&7

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H-9#% RUTQ &- A>QSJ

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



C)J,& K%(>%('6*WB 5=0:%; RD)&7.& <;D,,:6 – C,&. :%`.:? 7, 0. 6..( )6 ) ',,> 7D%('B

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educators and parents to make important decisions about their children’s education.

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Right Wrong Right Wrong Right W

OTAL 29 64 A.C.A. – Favor 54 37 Single 39

.C. Market 28 66 A.C.A. – Oppose 5 91 Married 26

orfolk Market 39 53 A.C.A. – Premiums Inc./Cut/Dropped 10 82 Employed 30

ichmond Area Markets 29 65 A.C.A. – No Change 37 58 Unemployed 33

West Markets 18 70 A.C.A. – No Insurance 30 51 Retired 25

oted on Election Day 29 63 Shutdown – Negatively Affected 32 61 Single Women 39

oted Before Election Day 26 67 Shutdown – Not Negatively Affected 28 65 Married Women 25

ecided Vote – Before Labor Day 29 66 Republican 4 90 Employed Women 27

ecided Vote – During Sept. 30 64 Men 5 88 Union Household 47

ecided Vote – During Oct. 22 68 Women 3 91 Non-Union Household 26

ecided Vote – Week Before 35 54 Democrat 58 33 Under $60,000 31

ote McAuliffe 55 36 Men 60 32 $60,000 - $100,000 29

ote Cuccinelli 3 94 Women 57 34 Over $100,000 28

ote Sarvis 14 62 Independent 22 71 Protestant 25

ote 2012 – Obama 53 37 Men 21 74 Catholic 29

ote 2012 – Romney 3 93 Women 22 67 Born Again – Yes 22

bama Job – Approve 57 34 Vote Democrat 55 35 Born Again – No 28

bama Job – Disapprove 3 93 Ticketsplitter 22 71 White 21

ongress – Help Obama 58 33 Vote Republican 4 92 African American 64

ongress – Check/Balance 8 88 Liberal 49 38 Hispanic 28

nited States – Right Direction 100 0 Moderate 39 55 Under 40 27

nited States – Wrong Track 0 100 Conservative 9 86 41 – 55 28

sue – Economic 28 64 Tea Party – Favorable 4 94 56 – 65 34

sue – Social 45 46 Tea Party - Unfavorable 47 44 Over 65 27

sue – World /Nat’l Security 21 76 Live in VA – Less Than 10 33 60 Men 29

sue – Moral 17 77 Live in VA – 10 to 20 Years 29 61 Women 29

nly/Mostly Cell 27 63 Live in VA – More Than 20/Life 28 66

ell/Landline Equal 31 65 Pro – Life 16 80

nly/Mostly Landline 29 64 Pro – Choice 41 48

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013

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November 2013

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



T.M. K.C. R.S. T.M. K.C. R.S. T.M. K.C.

OTAL 48 45 7 A.C.A. – Favor 90 6 5 Single 74 19

.C. Market 48 45 6 A.C.A. – Oppose 8 84 8 Married 42 50

orfolk Market 57 37 6 A.C.A. – Prem. Inc./Cut/Dropped 27 64 9 Employed 48 44

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West Markets 37 55 8 A.C.A. – No Insurance 75 25 0 Retired 46 46

oted on Election Day 48 45 7 Shutdown – Negatively Affected 51 37 12 Single Women 81 15

oted Before Election Day 52 42 6 Shutdown – Not Neg. Affected 47 48 6 Married Women 45 49

ecided Vote – Before Labor 45 52 3 Republican 6 90 4 Employed Women 49 43

ecided Vote – During Sept. 51 42 7 Men 7 89 4 Union Household 72 26

ecided Vote – During Oct. 48 39 13 Women 5 91 3 Non-Union Household 45 47

ecided Vote – Week Before 51 31 19 Democrat 92 5 3 Under $60,000 53 42

ote McAuliffe 100 0 0 Men 88 7 4 $60,000 - $100,000 43 52

ote Cuccinelli 0 100 0 Women 94 3 3 Over $100,000 45 46

ote Sarvis 0 0 100 Independent 45 39 16 Protestant 43 52

ote 2012 – Obama 91 2 7 Men 40 43 18 Catholic 39 51

ote 2012 – Romney 4 92 5 Women 51 35 14 Born Again – Yes 35 63

bama Job – Approve 92 3 5 Vote Democrat 91 3 6 Born Again – No 51 42

bama Job – Disapprove 7 85 8 Ticketsplitter 45 36 20 White 35 58

ongress – Help Obama 93 3 4 Vote Republican 3 94 3 African American 94 3

ongress – Check/Balance 13 80 8 Liberal 90 5 5 Hispanic 69 19

nited States – Right Direct. 91 5 4 Moderate 58 28 14 Under 40 53 37

nited States – Wrong Track 27 66 7 Conservative 16 83 2 41 – 55 43 50

sue – Economic 45 48 8 Tea Party – Favorable 7 90 3 56 – 65 51 45

sue – Social 74 20 6 Tea Party - Unfavorable 79 10 11 Over 65 42 51

sue – World /Nat’l Security 36 60 4 Live in VA – Less Than 10 46 44 10 Men 44 48

sue – Moral 32 62 6 Live in VA – 10 to 20 Years 56 40 4 Women 51 43

nly/Mostly Cell 47 45 8 Live in VA – More Than 20/Life 46 47 7

ell/Landline Equal 51 44 5 Pro – Life 23 73 5

nly/Mostly Landline 45 47 9 Pro – Choice 71 20 9

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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November 2013

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013

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November 2013

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013





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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Fav.






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



When did you decide how you were going to vote for Governor? Was it…?

VA Post-Elect

November 2013

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defending traditional marriage.”

79

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AGREE Strongl y Somewhat DISAGREE Somewhat Strongl y DK/Ref.

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Agree Disagree Agree Disagr. Agree D






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



5

O'&..^b%6)'&..*

“Our basic fundamental constitutional rights and liberties are under

attack.”

69

48

21

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013

































VA Post-Elect

November 2013



5

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Lib. Cons. Both Lib. Cons. Both Lib. Cons.






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



6

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama R






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Appr. Disappr. Appr. Disappr Appr. D






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



6

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Help Check Help Check Help






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



K)-,&ÂFF,6.*

“The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare”

47

30

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9

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor O






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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November 2013

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November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Expand Not Expand Not Expand






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



K)-,&ÂFF,6.*

“Reducing regulations and taxes on small businesses to create jobs.”

77

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November 2013

































VA Post-Elect

November 2013



7

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“Allowing the private sector to grow the economy would enable

business owners to give meaningful raises to workers.”

75

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November 2013



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energy exploration on federal lands.”

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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Lower Wealthy Lower Wealth. Lower W






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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November 2013



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November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



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VA Post-Elect

November 2013





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VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Yes No Yes No Yes






























VA Post-Elect

November 2013





Z.6F,(>.(7 5&,@%:.

ote Tot.VoteT.M.

VoteK.C.

VoteR.S. Ideology Tot.

VoteT.M.

VoteK.C.

VoR.

On Election Day 89 88 90 91 Liberal 23 44 3 1

Before Election Day 11 12 11 9 Moderate 34 41 21 6

ote 2012 % % % % Conservative 41 13 75 9

Obama 49 92 3 50 Live in Virginia % % % %

Romney 45 3 93 30 Under 10 Years 13 12 13 1Obama Job % % % % Between 10 and 20 Years 21 25 19 1

Approve 47 91 3 33 Over 20 Years/Life 65 62 68 6

Disapprove 51 8 96 59 Abortion % % % %

Congress % % % % Pro-Life 47 22 75 3

elp Obama 40 76 3 24 Pro-Choice 48 71 21 5

Check/Balance 53 14 94 57 Marital Status % % % %

Direction: U.S. % % % % Single 11 16 4 1

Right Direction 29 55 3 14 Married 75 66 84 8

Wrong Track 64 36 94 62 Employment % % % %

arty % % % % Employed 61 61 60 6

Republican 35 5 71 18 Private 37 36 39 4

Democrat 36 68 4 17 Government 15 16 12 2

ndependent/Other 28 27 24 65 Retired 25 24 26 2

ote Behavior % % % % Unemployed 4 6 3 2

ote Democrat 42 81 3 34 Household % % % %

icketsplitter 15 14 12 41 Union H.H. 8 13 5 2

ote Republican 40 3 83 18 Non-Union H.H. 88 83 93 9

VA Post-Elect

November 2013



Z.6F,(>.(7 5&,@%:. ER,(7BG

ncome Tot.VoteT.M.

VoteK.C.

VoteR.S. Age Tot.

VoteT.M.

VoteK.C.

VR

nder $40,000 16 19 15 5 Under 40 23 26 19

40,000 - $60,000 18 18 16 24 41 – 55 26 23 29

60,000 - $100,000 21 19 24 14 55 – 65 26 28 26

100,000 - $150,000 12 11 11 18 Over 65 22 19 25

Over $150,000 10 10 12 9 Mean Age 53.0 51.9 54.5 5Mean Income 87.3K 82.3K 90.5K 102.1K Media Market % % %

Religion % % % % DC Media Market 35 36 36

rotestant 59 53 67 42 Arlington/Alexandria 5 6 4

Catholic 18 14 20 25 Fairfax 13 14 12

Atheist 7 11 3 10 Loudon/Prince William 8 9 8

Born-Again % % % % Rest DC Media Market 9 7 12

es 50 40 60 22 Norfolk 21 25 17

o 48 57 39 68 Southampton 14 17 10

Race % % % % Peninsula 7 8 7

White 72 53 93 75 Richmond/Raleigh/Char. 27 27 27

African American 16 32 1 7 West 17 13 21

ispanic 6 9 3 11 Roanoke 14 10 18

Gender % % % % Tri Cities/Bluefield 3 3 4

Male 47 43 49 55 Sample % % %

emale 53 57 50 45 Cell-Phone 25 23 26

Documents

YGVA Post-Elect 11-08-2013 Major Findings