Year 9 Personal Interest Project 2011

Future Studies

Alvin Toffler, Future Shock, p6In dealing with the future…it is more important to be imaginative and insightful than to be one hundred percent “right”. Theories do not have to be “right” to be enormously useful. Even error has its uses. The maps of the world drawn by the medieval cartographers were so hopelessly inaccurate, so filled with factual error, that they elicit condescending smiles today when almost the entire surface of the earth has been charted. Yet the great explorers could never have discovered the New World without them. Nor could the better, more accurate maps of today have been drawn until men, working with the limited evidence available to them, set down on paper their bold conceptions of worlds they had never seen. We who explore the future are like those ancient mapmakers.

No accurate picture can be drawn of the future, because all known facts relate to the present and the past.

It is nevertheless important that we use the best available methods to identify trends and specific innovations to determine what is possible and likely in the future.

As you are future leaders of this country, it is vitally important to consider the social implications of trends, including the effects on society, the environment and the economy to determine which futures are most desirable.

Thinking about the futureAlthough thinking about the future has always been a part of human culture (e.g., soothsayers, prophets, and later 'utopians') it has only been in the past four to five decades that it has produced the academic research field known as Future Studies. The World Future Studies Federation uses the plural term “futures” studies rather than the singular “future” studies to counter the notion of only one future, the latter having both conceptual limitations and political implications. This pluralisation of futures opens up the territory for envisioning and creating alternative and preferred futures.

Visions of the futureYou have already started thinking about your own vision of the future. You have looked at other people’s visions of the future – both from the past and present.You have also looked at Outlook magazine’s Top 10 Forecasts for this year. You have started to discuss the possible social, environmental and economic impacts of different futures.Now you need to put those ideas to work in envisioning your own desired future!

The ProjectSelect ONE topic of relevance to Global Studies to research. With reference to present trends in this area, research which is currently occurring and predicted innovations, you are required to:

Predict what is possible and probable in the area of [your topic] by 2025 and 2050.

Justify your opinion about which of these futures is preferable, taking into account the impact on society, the environment and the economy.

Predict - Suggest what may happen based on available informationJustify – Support an argument or conclusion

You will need to provide evidence of having used one MODEL for predicting the future. You should also include visual stimulus material to support your predictions.

Note!!

Possible Probable Preferable

Possible topics to investigateInternational Relations/ConflictWork/Labour MarketEnvironmental IssuesMedia/CommunicationEducationDevelopment/AidBusiness/Trade and CommerceHuman RightsTechnology – medical, genetic engineering, energyAny other ideas?

Sub-headings to guide your thinkingPresent trends and innovationsResearch occurring in the field – predictions to 2025 should be based on researchPredictions for the long-term future – predictions to 2050 should be largely driven by creative thinking Social implications associated with these futuresPreferable future(s)

You should structure your presentation in two sections with clear headings – predictions to 2025 and possibilities to 2050 to clearly delineate your research from your creative thinking.

Nota bene!If you compare these subheadings to the marking guidelines you will see that it’s very desirable to follow this layout!One of the biggest problems with the Group Research Project was that students did not complete all parts of the task.Make sure you have addressed all aspects of the task. We have identified these areas because they are a path to follow to enable you to:

identify possible futuresanalyse the available research to identify probable futures and then think critically about what is your preferred future

Your own thoughts!

Please note that you cannot look up “the answer” to this assignment anywhere.The only person who can decide your vision of the future is you.You will have to do some analysis and critical thinking.

ModelsYour teacher will be explaining these in more detail but in brief there are 5 possible models you can use:

Environmental Scanning - using contemporary sources to identify emerging trends and possible future impacts.

Futures Wheels - using mind maps or Inspiration to identify the consequences of a trend or change.

Delphi Technique - using the views of a panel of experts to identify key trends and likely impacts.

Cyclical Pattern Analysis - using past events to identify recurring patterns and then predict future patterns.

Extrapolation - using current statistics and graphs to project future outcomes.

Using models

You must use one of these models. They link back to the Thinking about thinking unit we did in Term 1 in that they provide you with a framework for thinking about a topic from a different angle.They also provide you with a structure to organise your research around so that you can analyse the information and think critically about it.

Format of your presentation

Pictorial EssayReportPowerPoint (this can include some video footage if appropriate)NarrativeWebsiteOral presentation (this means a talk, with visual aids in support, not reading notes) Other format determined by negotiation with your teacher

Recommended Length: 1500 words (report) or approximately 10 minutes (oral presentation)

Thoughts on presentations – some observations based on the group assignment

Overall

You should be using in-text referencing for all your secondary sources – in written reports and on PowerPoint or Prezi. You will have to in Year 10, so you may as well start now. See your teacher for a tutorial.One of the best ways to ensure that you are using the best material, explained clearly and succinctly, is to start with too much and then cut down.

Written reportsConsider the overall presentation – this includes photos, diagrams, a title page, figures and tables. A written report does not have to be visually boring.Most of you are still not asking a parent, teacher or friend (preferably all 3) to proof read your work. Poorly expressed, repetitive, unclear and badly spelled work is a dead give away for projects completed the night before they are due. We are just not that naïve.

Oral presentationsIf you want to speak, speak. If you want to read to me, I prefer Jane Austen.It is very helpful to your audience to have some material to help them follow your presentation. A briefing paper or mindmap or flow diagram helps us to sort your words into a coherent whole.Prezi does not have a spelling or grammar check. Most of you need this. What’s the solution?If you wish to use Prezi, you must submit a working, downloaded version by the due date. Otherwise it’s unfair. Why?

Technical details

Weighting: 25%Date Due: Wednesday 2nd of November (Week 4)

before 8:20am in H1

If you choose to do an oral presentation, you will present during Week 4 and 5. Other students will do a 2 – 3 minute summary of their topic for the class during Week 5.

SubmissionThere is absolutely no excuse for not being able to hand your assignment in on time and ready to go. Between email, your folder on Snoopy, your teacher’s drop box, printers, USB sticks, DVDs, CDs and Dropbox or other ‘clouds’, you should have 4-5 places where your completed assignment is stored. And of course you have checked that it works on a SCHOOL computer.You MUST save your assignment as Office 2003. This is not some crazy Global requirement. It applies to every single assignment. Just do it.If you are submitting a written assignment, please provide two copies.

Submission Requirements for Global Studies

Computing, portal or printer problems are not acceptable excuses for late submission and penalties will be applied.You will also be required to submit your assignment to Turnitin to check for plagiarism. Mrs White will talk you through this.Penalties for late submission will apply as laid out on p7 of the Year 9 Assessment Schedule of Tasks and Rules.

Getting startedLook at Outlook magazine’s forecasts. They publish 10 every year.Browse through The Futurist magazine – it’s in the Library.The Global wiki has a list of project ideas – many from TED, so check out TED too.Your teacher has a pathfinder for you with lots of starting points for resources – but remember, research can only tell you about present trends and help you make predictions. It can’t give you the answer.