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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Outlook
For
International Monetary Fund
January 14, 2013 | Washington, DC
By
Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040
2
• Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth
• Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade
• Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy standards
• The U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the early 2020s
• U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level through 2040
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Growth in energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to reduction in net imports
3
U.S. energy production and consumption
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Consumption
Production
Net imports
9%
19%
10%
History Projections2011 2035
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Petroleum
4Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory
5
Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil
2011 dollars per barrel
ProjectionsHistory 2011
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
Reference
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019
6
U.S. crude oil production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Tight oil
Alaska
Other lower 48 onshore
Lower 48 offshore
ProjectionsHistory 2011
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
New light-duty vehicle fuel economy approaches 50 mpg by 2040
7
New LDV fuel efficiency
miles per gallon
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
2011 ProjectionsHistory
Summary of LDV standards
2012-2016: Increase to 34.1 mpg CAFE average in 2016 (based on vehicle footprint sales distribution)
2017-2025: Increase to 47.4 mpg CAFE average in 2025 (based on vehicle footprint sales distribution)
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards
8
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
AEO2012
AEO2013
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines
9
Transportation energy consumption by fuel
quadrillion Btu
ProjectionsHistory 2011
60% Motor gasoline
E85Jet fuel
CNG/LNG11%
13%4%
29%
47%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
2%
Pipeline fuel 3%
4%
Other4%
Diesel22%
1%
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades
10
Annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2011
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly
net product exporter
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines
11
U.S. liquid fuel supply
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports45%
37%
ProjectionsHistory 2011
60%
2005
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable
12
Global liquids supply
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
ProjectionsHistory 2011
OPEC
Other non-OECD
OECD
44%
25%
31%
40%
26%
34%
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Natural Gas
13Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Shale gas production leads growth in production through 2040
14
U.S. dry natural gas production
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Associated with oil
Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
Alaska
Non-associated onshore
Non-associated offshore
ProjectionsHistory 2011
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
15
U.S. dry gas consumption
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
ProjectionsHistory
Industrial*
Electricpower
Commercial
Residential
Transportation**
33%
14%
6%
32%
12%
33%
19%
3%
31%
13%
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel.**Includes pipeline fuel.
Gas to liquids2%
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come?
16
U.S. natural gas consumption
quadrillion Btu
Pipeline fuel
Light-duty vehicles
2011History Projections
95%
3%
1%
1%
28%
38%
3%
31%
1%Buses
Freight trucks
Gas to liquids
Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses.
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020
17
U.S. dry gas
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
ProjectionsHistory 2011
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case
18
U.S. natural gas exports
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Alaska LNG exports
Exports to Mexico
Exports to Canada
Lower 48 LNG exports
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Coal and Electricity
19Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040
20
U.S. electricity use
percent growth (3-year rolling average)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Structural Change in Economy - Higher prices - Standards - Improved efficiency
Projections
History 2011
Period Annual Growth1950s 9.81960s 7.31970s 4.71980s 2.91990s 2.42000-2011 0.92012-2040 0.9
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source
21
U.S. electricity net generation
trillion kilowatthours
25%
19%
42%
13%
1%
Nuclear
Oil and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
2011 ProjectionsHistory
17%
16%
35%
30%
1%
1993
53%
13%
19%
11%
4%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases
22
U.S. electricity net generation
trillion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Natural gas
2012 Reference Case $15 Carbon Fee $25 Carbon Fee
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Natural gasNatural gas
Renewables
RenewablesNuclear
NuclearCoal
Coal
2010
24%
10%
20%
45%
28%
15%
18%
38%
34%
22%
27%
16%
34%
23%
38%
4%
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis
23
ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
History Projections
2011 2011 dollars per Btu
History Projections2011
Competitive parity
Energy prices to the electric power sector
Coal
Natural gas
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
U.S. continues to be a net exporter of coal
24
million short tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
ProjectionsHistory 2011
Consumption
Domestic Supply
Net imports
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040
25
Non-hydropower renewable generation
billion kilowatthours per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Wind
Solar
GeothermalWaste
Biomass
Industrial CHP
Power sector
Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible)
2011 ProjectionsHistory
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines
26
Energy and emission intensity
index, 2005=1
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
History Projections2011
Carbon dioxide emissionsper 2005 dollar of GDP
Energy use per 2005dollar of GDP
Energy use per capita
2005
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level
27
Carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
ProjectionsHistory 20112005
2005 2020 2040
(billion metric tons)
6.00 5.45 5.69
- - -9.0% -5.1%
(percent change from 2005)
AEO2013
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
For more information
28
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013