C~1-/4 6 -

The World Bank

FOt OMCLAL USE ONLY

MIC1f11()RI(:4lIE c(-,)py

Rep;rt. No :P- 5928-P'AX Type: (PR)Title: 1992 FLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATION IAutfcorr: ASSI MAKOPOULOSD.S . B. No P-5928-PAIExt.:82576 tioom:D10007 Dept.:SA3IE

-_~AR I_on

0r THE

PRESIDET OF THE

!NTERNUIATIOA DEVLO T ASSOCTIION

TO TIE

REECOTI DIRECTORS

ON A

PROPOSED CREDIT

OF SD1) 72.8 MLION

TO

ISLAI C REULIC OF PAKISTAN

FOR A

1992 FLOOD DAMAGE PROJECT

FEBRURY 3, 1993

This document has a restricted dstrbuto and may be wed by recipie ondy In the performance oftheir omficil dtits contents may ot otwise be lscleed wibou Wor Bas audtoriaton.

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(October 1992)

Currency Unit - Rupee (Res)Rs - US$0.4158lUS$1.00 - Re 25.00

WIGTS AND I~StURS

eusec - cubic feet per secondcm m 0.3937 ichha - 2.4711 acresa - meter (3.28 feet)km kilometer (0.62 miles)mgd M illion gallons per dayMaf million acre-feet

VA ~ ~ -millimeters

NW 1,000 kilowatts

ADIB - Asian Development lank- Azad Jaumu and Kahbmir

CUD. - Couuicuation and Works Department.FFC - Iederal Fload CommissionGOP - Gomerment of PakistanIW - International Moetary FndNM - National Highway AuthoritymP - North West Frontier ProvinceMsD. - Provinial Education Departmet,

PID. - Provicial Irrigation DepartmetsPIDRC - Provincial Flood Dmage Restoration Cell80 - Statemet of ExpenditureWAPDA - Water and Power Development Authority

July 1 -- June 30

FOR OMCIL USE ONLY

PAKISTAII

1992 FLOOD DANAGE RESTORATIUN PROJECT

Credit and Project Sumarw

Borrowers Islamic Republic of Pakistan

Beneficiariess Federal Flood Commisbion(through the Ministry of 'Water and Power)National Highway AuthorityProvincial Governments of Balochistan, North West Frontier,Punjab and Sindh, and Azad Jamu and Ksh4mir

Amount: -DR 72.8 million (US$100.0 million equivalent)

Terms: Standard, with 35 years maturity

Onlendint Terms: The proceeds of the IDA credit will be retained partly by theGovernment of Pakistan for use by the Federal Flood Comnissionwith the rest being made available to the National RighwayAuthority, the Provinces and AJK through budgetary allocations ona first-come-first-serve basis (based on implementationperformance and credit utilization).

Financing Plan:Local Foreian Total-U-- S$ million --

Government & Other Donors 110.9 36.3 147.2IDA 65.8 34.2 100.0Ongoing World BanklIDA

Portfolio 36.7 13.3 50.0ADB 64.0 36.0 100.0

TOTAL 119.8

Economic Rateof Returns Not applicable

Staff AprraisalReogrt: Not applicable; a Technical Annex is provided.

&28s IBRD No. 24352

This document has a resticted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

EORRANDUM AND RECOMMEDUTION OF THE PRESIDENTOF THE INTMRNATIONAL DEVELOPIMT ASSOCIATION

TO THE EECUTI DIRECTORSON A PROPOSED CREDIT

TO THE ISLAMC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTANFOR A 1992 FLOOD DANAGE RESTORATION PROJECT

1. I submit for your approval the following mmorandum and recommendationon a proposed development credit to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for SDR 72.8million (US$100.0 million equivalent). The proposed credit would help financethe priority investment requirements of rehab:.litation and reconstruction ofpublic infrastructure affected by the 1992 flood disaster. The proposed creditwould be on standard IDA terms, with a maturity of 35 years with 10 years grace.The project would be cofinanced by the Asian Development ank (ADB) for US$1.00.0million equivalent. The proceeds of the IDA credit will be retained partly bythe Government of Pakistan (GOP) for use by the Federal Flood Commission with therest being made available to the National Highway Authority, the Provinces andAzad Jammu and Kashmir, through budgetary allocations on a first-come-first-servebasis (based on implementation performance and credit utilization).

2. Countr=lSector Backaround. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan coversan area of about 780,000 sq km subdivided into four provinces: Balochistan,North West Frontier (NWFP), Punjab and Sindh, and Azad Jamm. and Kashmir (AJK).Pakistan's population is estimated at about 116.0 million (1991) and is growingat an annual rate of 3.12. Per capita GNP was US$410, with about 301 of thepopulation having an income below the absolute poverty line.

3. With the exception of the steep mountains and hills in the north, mostof Pakistan is either arid or semi-arid. Although the mean annual precipitationis about 600 me, rainfall is erratic and much of the Indus Plains, where cropcultivation is concentrated, receives an average of less than 150 mm per annum.Hence, irrigation is essential for most agricultural production. About 901 ofthe value of agricultural production comes from the 16 million ha of irrigatedland.

4. Floods in Pakistan occur most frequently and are more extensive anddamaging in the Indus Plains, but have recently become more devastating in thenorth due to the cumulative changes in hydrological and topographic conditionsthat have occurred there. Floods in the Indus Plains are mainly caused byspillage from rivers during high flows generated in the upper catchment areas ofthe Himalayas and Koh-Hindu-Kush. However, in the north during July and Augustwhen the heavy rainfall coincides with the peak from snow-melt, catchment areasof rivers experience rapid buildup of exceptionally heavy flows and carry largesediment loads which create erosion and flooding. A considerable part of thesecatchment areas and riverbeds with stesp gradients and limited valley storage arein the north and outside Pakistan's national boundaries.

5. Rivers in the Indus Plains are prone to channel degradation, andgradual rise In the elevation of river beds which also leads to the deteriorationof their capacity to carry high flows. This Is a natural characteristic that tosome extent has been intensified by heavy withdrawals for irrigation and theconstruction of storage reservoirs and diversion barrages. About half the annual

discharges of the Indus and its tributaries are diverted in Pakistan into one ofthe world's largest contiguous irrigation canal systems. In this system, some33 million acres of the Indus Plains are served by about 38,000 miles of canalsand by two major storage dams: Mangla Cam on the Jhelum River and Tarbels Dam onthe Indus. Other key components of the system are 17 major irrigation barrages.

6. Flood protection works have been constructed in Pakistan over severalgenerations; there exist more than 3,000 miles of flood protection embankmentsand numerous spurs and river training structures. Major dams in upper catebmentareas of the Indus tributaries, together with the detention reservoirs anddiversion works have been successfully utilized to protect against flash floodsand to minimize flood damage during past decades. Even so, serious damage fromexceptionally high flows still occur due to overtopping and/or breaching ofprotective works. Since 1948, exceptionally high flood flows (in excess of800,000 cusecs) have been recorded eight timeslJ at various gauging stations atthe five major barrages on the Indus River.

7. The 1992 Floods. During the 1992 monsoon season, Pakistan experiencedexceptionally hea-'y rainfall which resulted in widespread floods in many partsof the country. The heavy rains in August saturated soils over much of thecatchment area, leaving little capacity to absorb additional moisture. As aresult, when additional torrential rains occurred in the north on September 8 and9, 1992 the runoff began almost immediately causing flash floods. The resultingtorrents caused unprecedented flows in the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers in Punjabprovince and in the Indus River and its smaller tributaries. Conditions wereexacerbated because storage capacity at the major dams and detention reservoirswas already fully utilized. The results were serious flooding and landslidesthat would have caused serious damage under any circumstances. According toFederal Flood Commission records, the flood peaks were classified as"exceptionally high" throughout the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers and on the main stemof the Indus River, between its confluence with the Chenab and Sukkur barrage.Elsewhere along the Indus, the recorded peaks were in the "very high" category.The peak at Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River represents an unusually high floodwith a recurrence interval of between 40 and 50 years, or with 2S to 2.51probability of occurring in any year.

8. During the floods, the Federal Flood Warning Center (FFWC) and FloodControl Center (FCC) issued flood forecasts and warnings and thousands of peoplewere evacuated in time from the flood-affected areas preventing what could havebeen an even greater disaster in terms of the loss of life. However, becausePFWC's forecasting capability is at present impaired by the poor condition of thetelemetry system which has outlived its useful life and by the inherentshortcomings of the two weather radars currently in operation, it was impossibleto prepare accurate flood forecasts before, during and immediately after theheavy rainfall. If the telemetry system had been fully operational and if moresuitable weather radar and up-to-date flood routing techniques were available,the loss of life probably could have been even much less than it was.Replacement and upgrading of the telemetry system and the procurement of moresuitable weather radar is being carried out under the ongoing ADB-financed FloodProtection Sector Project.

1/ Including 1992, with record flows of 1.0 million cusecs.

9. Assessment of Flood Damage. The floods affected all four provincesas well as the northern areas and resulted in considerable loss of life,widespread damage to crops, infrastructure and property. The heavy rains,landslides and inundations destroyed or severely damaged over 9609000 houses andaffected about 4.8 million inhabitants (reportedly 1,200 people lost theirlives). Government estimates of the impact of the flood indicate total damagesof US$2.4 billion equivalent, of which about US$1.9 billion is for loss ot domageto the private sector (such as physical assets, crops, and livestock) and US$0.5billion for loss and damage to public infrastructure. The sector hardeat hit bythe floods was agricultura, with substantial losses in cotton, sugarci.ne, andrice. Estimates of crop damage indicate a decline in output between 4 to 7X.Damage to infrastructure disrupted transportation and essential public services.Highways were flooded or blocked by landslides, a number of bridges weredestroyed or damaged, and about 900 miles of irrigation canals and water channelswere badly damaged.

10. The impact of the floods has also worsened the economic outlook forthe current fiscal year. GDP growth is projected to be 1.5X lower and reach onlyabout 4.72. Expenditures for relief operations and rehabilitation ofinfrastructure, combined with revenue shortfalls, are expected to increase thebudget deficit by 0.6 to 0.81 of GDP. In the absence of further measures, theoverall fiscal deficit would reach 7.8-8.0X of GDP. %n the monetary side,incremental financing requirements for commodity operations, extension of creditfor recovery of agricultural activities, and higher public sector borrowing areexpected to increase the inflation rate from the targeted 81 to 11.52. Thedirect balance of payments impact is estimated on the order of US$710 million,of which an estimated US$465 million comes from losses in export receipts andUS$245 million from higher imports for flood relief and rehabilitation. Thecurrent account deficit could increase to US$2.9 billion or 6.11 of GDP. It isclear that the effects of the flood have reinforced the need to tighten financialpolicies to improve macroeconomic balances. The Government has recognized thatthe primary impetus for restoring macroeconomic stability must come from domesticpolicy efforts. In this regard, discussions with the IMF and the. Bank arecontinuing.

11. International Surport. As soon as the magnitude of the damage by thefloods became apparent, the Government established a cabinet committee (chairedby the Minister of the Environment and Urban Affairs) to coordinate relief anddamage rectification efforts. The Prime Minister established a flood relief fundto which many international and local donors contributed. The internationalcommunity responded quickly to the flood events, 4n particular to relieve theplight of those rendered homeless, and assistance was quickly provided orcammitted. Most of the efforts were monitored by the Islamabad office of theUnited Nations Devel-opment Programme (UNDP). As of October 31, 1992, the totalcash and material commitments registered by UNDP amounted to nearly $31 millionequivalent from bilateral and non-government organization sourcws. Twenty-sevencountries, the United Nations Disaster Relief Office, United Nations Children'sPund and the International Federation of the Red Cross provided relief assistancein the form of unvalued material supplies such as tents, blankets, food,medicines and the use of helicopters and airlift facilities.

12. In addition to proposed IDA support, Pakistan expects to receivesubstantial other financial support for its rehabilitation and recovery effortfrom Germany and Saudi Arabia. The International Monetary Fund is providing SDR

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189.55 million (equivalent to about US$260 million) (252 of quota) under itsEmergency Assistance Facility approved by its Board on November 25, 1992. ADB,which jointly appraised the proposed project with IDA, is also providing a loanfrom its Special Funds resource' in an amount equivalent to US$100, to supportthe reconstruction program (approved by the ADB Board on December 15, 1992).

13. IDA's Resoonse. In keeping vith IDA'. long-standing policy ofresponding quickly to emergencies, the Bank's field office in Islamabad onSeptember 10, 1992 began monitoring the flood damage and liaising with potentialdonors. After the Bank received a request from the Goverument for assistance inlate September, an Ad Hoc Advisory Group, drawing on expertise on emergencyoperations from various parts of the Bank, was immediately established to adviseon project preparation and design matters. At this stage the Bank began toliaise with ADB which subsequently received a similar request from the Governmentfor assistance. In October, ADB and IDA jo*ntly appraised the proposed project(which both institutions negotiated in November, 1992 and January, 1993respectively).

14. Lessons Learned from Previous IDA Oserations. IDA experience with thethree previous flood restoration projectsl' has been largely successful. Ingeneral, all three projects (approved after floods during 1974, 1976 and 1988)achieved their targets of restoring flood damaged infrastructure and assistingin economic recovery. Further, each project contributed to reducing the impactof subsequent floods. In the foreseeable future, improvement of the existingflood protection system of levees or bunds along rivers is the only practicalmeans for protection against floods. (Appendix 1 provides an overview of thethree previous floods.) A technically better solution would be construction ofa system of reservoirs with sufficient capacity to provide storage and thuscontrol floods. However, there are limited possibilities for the constructionof such a complex system at reasonable cost, and no such development would appeareconomically feasible in the near future. The nature of the works to beundertaken under the proposed project is such that they would have little impacton the overall risk of future damage caused by floods of the magnitude recentlyexperienced. Nevertheless, such works vould restore damaged infrastructure andstimulate a return to normalcy as did previous flood damage restoration projectsfinanced by IDA.

15. Major constraints experienced during the implementation of pastprojects include occasional shortages of local funds during the early stages ofthe implementation phase when special accounts were not yet operational. Theinitial unfamiliarity of many field divisions with Implementation arrangements,delays in preparing design and cost estimates and shortages in technical staffalso contributed to delays. The overall performance of the provincialimplementing agencies was satisfactory considering that restoration works witha total value of about US$85.0 million were executed under the IDA and ADBfinanced 1988 Flood Damage Restoration Project within a period of 3-1/2 years.Implementing agencies and consultants are now fully familiar with IDA and ADB

l/ Credit Amount ClosingCredit Flood Proiect Amount Disbursed Date466-PAK 1973 Flood Rehabilitation Program US$35 US$34.5 12/76683-PAR 1976 A Flood Damage Restoration Project US$40 US$40.0 12/782003-PAl 1988 Flood Damage Restoration Project US$40 US$33.7 12/91

requirements which should help contribute to the successful implementation of theproposed project. Retroactive finacing was of great be.aefit to the Govermentduring each of the three previous emergency recovery projects, and is alsoproposed for this project.

16. 3aionJle for IDA Inolvement. The proposed assistance is a furtherexpression of IDA's comitment to the country in mseeting, its developmentobjectives generally, and to restoring its economic balance as rapidly aspossible with the least disruption. The assistance would anable the repair andrestoration of past investments, and the resumption to implementation of otheron-going proJects finanmed by IDA. Providing emergency assistance for the fourthtim since x973 to repair damage caused by floods, would enable the Governmentto build on pst ivestments, and would encourage continued Government csmmitmentto and improvement of flood mitigation measures already in place with funding tobe provided by the ADD.

17. The economic and social infrastructure sectors in which assistance isneeded are critical to the country's well being, and are areas of long-standingIDA involvement in Pakistan. IDA's assistance would eaze the Government'salready constrained financial capabilities, and reduce the need to divert its ownlimited resources from other priority projects and programs.

18. Prolect Objectives. The project's main objective is to assist theGovernment in implementing a national program to restore vital infrastructuredestroyed or damaged in the 1992 flood in order to minimiie the disruption toeconomic activity and social services. A sectoral approach to project design ha.been adopted in order to respond flexibly a-d efficiently to the country's needs.The project would also accelerate the start of sele.cted top priority works toprotect Investments in infrastructure that survived the 1992 flood.

19. Prolect Descrl2tion. The proposed project comprises a three-year timeslice of the Government's "rogram to restore flood-damaged public infrastructure.This program coveros (Part I) repair and restoration of federal and provincialinfrastructure, includings roads and bridges; irrigation, drainage and floodprotection works; and primary education and basic health facilities; and (PartIY) restoration of infrstructure mainly provided by Government enterprises suchas railways, power, and telecommunications. While the Government has requestedexternal assistance for the first part, it intends to have the concerned publicenterprises assume most, if not all, of the burden for the second part.

20. The selection of subprojects to be implemented under the project willbe draw from Part I of the Goveoment's restoration program, with subprojectsto be selected and lmplemented in accordance with the criteria as set out inAppendix 2. The scope of works and, in particular, restoration standards andimplementation arrangements, are defined in Appendix 3. In principle, theproject would restore facilities to pre-1992 flood conditions but with allowancesfor improvements when justified to ensure that the restored facilities meetcurrent environment, quality and efficiency standards.

21. Pro3ect ImoleM=entaton. The Federal Flood Commission (FPC) of theGOP'. Ministry of Water and Power would be the Coordinating Agency for theoverall project. Implementing agencies responsible for implementation of theirrespective parts of the project are:

(a) National Highway Authority (MM) of GOP's Ministry of Communicationswould be responsible for restoration of national highways under itsjurisdiction and certain selected works under the jurisdiction of theprovincial authorities.

(b) Provincial Departments of Communications and Works (CWDs) would berespon.Able for restoration of provincial and district (farm-to-market) roads under their jurisdiction, and of basic health facilitiesin their respective provinces and AJK; and in NWFP and AJK forrestoration of primary education facilities as well.

(c) Provincial Departments of Irrigation (PIDs) would be responsible forrestoration of irrigation, drainage, flood control, and river trainingfacilities in their respective provinces.

(d) Provincial Departments of Education (PEDs) would be responsible forrestoration of primary education facilities in Punjab and Sindh.

22. A Provincial Flood Damage Restoration Cell (PFDRC) would coordinateoverall project implementation for each province. In addition, a firm ofconsultants will be engaged under the project to assist the FFC and theimplementing agencies. The responsibilities of the implementing agencies and anoutline of terms of reference for the consulting services are shown inAppendix 4.

23. Pro2ram Cost and Proposed Financint Plan. Total program cost isestimated at US$483.4 million equivalent, of which US$397.2 million is for PartI and US$86.2 million for Part II of the Government's program. The foreignexchagne component is about US$119.8 million equivalent (302) and taxes andduties are estimated at about US$40.0 million equivalent. The IDA credit ofUS$100.0 million equivalent and ADB's contribution of a similar amount wouldfinance about 50X of the cost of Part I. In addition, funds (about US$50million) from existing World Bank/IDA-financed ongoing projects, with scopes ofwork that already cover the types of activities to be supported under theproposed project, will be utilized for the flood recovery program. The balancewould be provided by the Government and other potential donors. A breakdown ofproject costs and the financing plan are shown in Schedule A. Amounts andmethods of procurement and of disbursements, and the disbursement schedule areshown in Schedule B. A timetable of key project processing events and the statusof Bank Group operations in Pakistan are presented in Schedules C and D,respectively. A map is also attached, and a Technical Annex is provided in lieuof a Staff Appraisal Report.

24. Retroactive Financing. Because of the emergency nature of the workwhich required an immediate response, and the critical need for IDA assistance,retroactive financing would be provided to restore vital services, forexpenditures incurred on project activities since September 10, 1992 when theIDA, through its field office in Islamabad, first became actively involved inassisting the Government. Certain emergency works for which contracts havealready been entered into and works have already been carried out will berevieied by IDA on a case-by-case basis for eligibility for retroactivefinancing. Works undertaken as an interim measure to rrovide temporary repairto damaged infrastructure will not be eligible for retroactive financing. It is

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anticipated that the total expenditure -ligible for retroactive financing willnot exceed US$20.0 million or 202 of the credit amount.

25. Proiect Sustainabilitv. Effective operation of flood monitoringsystems, both within Pakistan and in collaboration with India, is essential forthe sustained operation of restored structures. Because the flood flows takeseveral days to reach the downstream areas most vulnerable to flooding, earlywarning systems can play a major role in reducing future flood damage.Improvement of flood mitigation measures, already put in place urder ADB'songoing Flood Protection Sector Project (approved after the 1988 flood)9 wouldprovide for an upgraded and improved telemetry system, at an estimated cost ofUS$10.0 million (Appendix 6). The improved system would provide greatercapabilities for flood forecasting and warning systems in the catchments of theIndus River and its tributaries. In addition, complementary technical assistancewill include floodplain mapping, consideration of floodplain zoning, preparationof a flood preparedness manual and other non-structural measures to prevent flooddamage. Because the Government has requested ADB to secure grant financing forthese improvements, no additional components for flood mitigation have beenincluded in the IDA credit.

26. Agreed Actions. Selection criteria, scope of work, restorationstandards, and implementation and procurement arrangements, which are si!ilar tothose agreed between GOP and ADB, have been agreed with Government and werereconfirmed during negotiations. The following actions are conditions ofeffectiveness: (a) the Planning Commission's Proforma 1 (Umbrella PC-1) for theproject would be approved by the Government's Executive Committee of the NationalEconomic Councill (b) the FFC will have signed a contract vith the projectconsultant,; and (e) all conditions for effectiveness of the ADB loan will havebeen satisfied.

27. Environmental Aspects. The project would have strongly positivesocio-economic impacts by contributing to the restoration of transportationservice, egricultural productivity, flood protection, education and health eareto pre-disaster levels. It will be neutral in its impact on the naturalenvironment, which realistically can only be restored by natural processes. Afundamental issue is the need to reduce the hazard of damage and loss of lifefrom future floods and rain-induced landslides which is being addressed by ADB.There is urgent need to address these objectives over the long-term in a niationalforest conservation/management strategy. Local positive impacts can be obtainedfrom provisions to improve storm drainage, erosion control and resistance toflood damage in restoration designs. The potential negative impacts are alsolocal--primarily those associated with earthmoving, demolition and constructionduring restoration of civil works. For virtually all the facilities to berestored no significant resettlement is involved. If resettlement is requiredfor some facilities, then IDA would require the necessary studies andconsultative process to be carried out before any decisions are takon. Theproject has been rated a "B" based on a limited environmental assessment carriedout during project appraisal.

28. Progect Benefits. The primary emphasis of the project is to restorethe pre-flood capacities of critical infrastructure by linking damaged portionsto undamaged portions, and making entire systems (i.e.9 irrigation, drainage,flood control and roads) operational again. The project will also restoreprimary education facilities and basic health facilities lost in the flood. In

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view of the substantial sunk cost in most of thooo facilitiea, these lnvestmentshave high rates of economic and social return. A. a result of the project,growth of the agriculture sector should return to average pre-flood annullevels. In fact, the deposition of silt ovea large areas of agricultural landcould provide extra fertility during the next few crop seasons . The mainbeneficiaries of the project will be the rural pe'ple who vere most affected bythe floods and who rely mainly on agriculture and on farm to arket linkages bymeans of the road infrastruccure for their livelihood. The restoration of bsiceducation and health services in rural areas will also mainly benefit villagedwellers whose social indicators are the worat in Pakistan.

29. Rlaka. The risks to successful implementation of the project, suchas insufficient goverrnent budgetary allocation or poor performance of theimplementing agencies, are considered manageable. The Government has reiteratedits high priority for the program and has already initiated restoration meauresvith its own resources. In addition, the performance of PFC9 as the coordingatngagency, and that of the Implementing agencies in executing the 1988 Flood DamageRestoration Project, was quite satisfactory, indicating that the implementationarrangements proposed for this projvct are sound. In addition, these agencieswill be strongly supported by consultants whose performance under the previousproject was also satisfactory. Finally, while the statistical probabilities areremote, the recurrence of exceptional floods cannot be ruled out. Theimprovements proposed in flood forecasting and flood warning should ensure thatflood damage to the economy as well as loss of life would be less in the future.The Federal Government and the provinces have already made a significant startin this direction and have given the highest priority to restoring flood damagedinfrastructure. Therefore, project risks are considered to be small.

30. Some of the facilities to be restored under the proposed project arelocated in AJK, an area over which India and Pakistan bave been In dispute since1947. By includitg finanee for those facilities In the proposed credit, IDA doesnot intend thereby to prejudice the detemination of the claim of the partiesto the dispute.

31. Recommendation. I am satisfied that the proposed development creditwould comply with the Articles of Agreemet of the Association and recomsund thatthe Executive Directors approve the proposed credit.

Lewis T. PrestonPresident

Attachments

Washington, D.C.February 3, 1993

8ceimdule APage I of 2

1992 LOOD DAG@ RPSTO, 0 OJRC

Rstiated Coa and PinAcias ?la

Component Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total------Re million-----U- $ million-----

PART I (External Assistance Requested)

Road& & Bridges 39783 29485 69268 151.3 99.4 250.7Trrigation & Flood ContTol 19632 408 2,040 65.3 16.3 81.6schools/Health Facilities 19389 73 1,462 55.6 2.9 58.5Consultants _30 30 160 1.2 6.4

Subtotal 69934 2,996 9,930 217.4 119.8 397.2

PART II (To be funded mainly by Government Aencies)

Public Building. - - 494 - - 19.8Water Supply - - 171 - 6.8Power Installation - - 56 - - 2.2Railways - - 200 - - 8.0Water & Power Distribution - - 413 - - 16.5Telocommunications - - 115 - - 4.6Local Government Roads - - 707 - - 28.3

Subtotal Al 2.156 - 86.2

GRAID TOTAL - - 12.086 - - 483.4

a/ Excludes US$28.9 million for equipment which was included In the Government'sinitial eatimate for damage costs, but which the IDA mission judged wa notdirectly related to the restoration of infrastructure.

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Schedule APage 2 of 2

PARISTAN

1992 FLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATION PROJEC

Financlna Plan(US$ million)

GOP & Public Proposed Existing ProposedOther Local Enter- IDA WI/IDA ADBDonors Govt prises Credit Portfolio Loan Total

-15-------------------us$ million------------------------

PART I (External Assistance Requested)

Civil Works 147.2 - - 91.8 50.Oa 96.8 385.8Removable Bridges - - - 5.0 - - 5.0Consultants - - - 3.2 - 3.2 6.4

Subtotal 147.2 - - 100.0 50.0 100.0 397.2

PART II (To be funded mainly by Government Agencies)

Public Buildings 19.8 - - - - - 19.8Water Supply - 3.7 - - 3.1 - 6.8Power Installation - - - - 2.2 - 2.2Railways - - 3.0 - 5.0 - 8.0Water/Power Diste - - 16.5 - - - 16.5Telecomaunications - - 4.6 - - - 4.6Local Govt Roads - 28.3 - - - - 28.3

Subtotal hi 19.8 3. 24.1 - 10.3 - 86.2

GRAND TOTAL 167.0 32.0 24.1 100.0 60.3 100.0 483.4

al The projects in the existing World Bank/IDA portfolio from which theseresources could be made available include the projects listed below.These are Indicative amounts, not requiring any changes in existing legalagreements.

-- Transport Sector Investment Ln. 3241-PAR, US$10.0 million-- Primary Education III, Punjab Cr. 1821-PAR, US$ 8.0 million-- Sindh Primary Education Dev. Cr. 2102-PAR, US$12.0 million-- Irrigation Systems Rehab II Cr. 1888-PAK, US$20.0 million

b/ Excludes US$28.9 million for equipmenmt hich was Included in theGovernment's initial estimate for damage costs, but which the IDAappraisal mission judged was not directly related to the restoration ofinfrastructure.

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Sch6duto B

F992 tLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATIg§ PROJECT

SwuarL of Pr22Msed Pcurmn Arranmmnta nD Dibursements(MSS mitlon)

A. P-crM

PrAumCnt MenthodForce Total

Project Element ICB LIt LCB Account Other Costs

Civil Works 12.80 253.00 120.00 - 385.80(11.40) (0.00) (54.70) (25.70) (0.00) (91.80)

Removable Bridges - 5.00 - - 5.00(0.00) (5.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (5.00)

Technical Assistance - - - 6.40 6.40(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (3.20) (3.20)

TOTAL 12.80 5.00 253.00 120.00 6.40 397.20(11.40) (5.00) (54.70) (25.70) (3.20) (100.00)

NOTE: Figures in parentheses are the repective esmomts financed by the IDA credit. Because the civil worksschemes are 8malt and wideLy scattered international competitive bidding Is not appropriate. tCt will beappticable only for major large brides, and LIB for the remowable bridges (Bailey-type or equivalent).Components financed by IDA would be in accordance with procedures satisfactory to the Association and thosefinanmed by other donors (as per financing plan in Schedule A page 2 of 2) woutd be in accordance with theirprocurement procedures. See Appendix 5 for a detailed discussion on smb-project procurement procedures.

ICB a international coapetitive biddingLlt a tlmited international biddingLCB * local comWpetitive bidding

B. Disburseeren&o

Credit Allocation X of ExpendituresCatorv US$ ItiOtin to be Ffinced

Civil works 86.00 90n of expenditures not of taxes

GOods 5.00 100X of CIF value of rewvable bridges

Technical Assistance 3.20 1U0X net of taxes(SO1 IDA and 50S AD8)

Unallocated 5.80

TOTAL 100.00

Estimated IDA DisbursemF atsIDA Fiscal Yesr

FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97.05$ m--*------*--Us$ illon----------------

Anmbl 30.0 35.0 25.0 10.0

Cmmtlative 30.0 65.0 90.0 100.0

Closing Date ; Decber 31, 1996

- 12 -

Schodul0 C

1992 FnOOD DAMGZ RESTORTIONA PWOJICT

1tietable of Lea Prolect Procosina events

(a) Time taken to prepare the projects 3 moths, October 1992 - December1992

(b) Prepared bys Local consultant and Govexrnmtwith Association assistance

(c) Appraisal mission departures October 11, 1992

(d) Negotiations: January 11-15, 1992

(e) Planned date of effectiveness: June 1993

(f) List of relevant PCRs and PPAls:

Credith± lfroie *og Dat

Cr. 466-PAZ A Flood Rehabilitation Program PPAR 2238, 10/13178(1973)

Cr. 683-PAZ Pakistan Flood Damage Restoration PPAR 3273, 12/31/80(1976)

Cr. 2003-PAZ 1988 Flood Damage Restoration PCR in DraftProject

This report is based on findings of an appraisal mission to Pakistan in October1992. Project team members included Messrs. B. Aesimakopoulo8 (Pr. Engineer/Planner, 5*331), Task Mager and Mission Leader; A. amid (Sr. Counsel, LGSA) IE. Eggerstedt (Economist, SASCI); M. 8ergo (Sr . Financial Analyst, ASTEG); M.J. Wambia (Financial Analyst/Economist, SA3AG); and Mrs. J. Palensuela(Operations Analyst, S331) from the International Development Association,Headquarters. Staff who participated from the Pakistan Resident Mission includedMessrs. P. Aklilu (Head of Projects Unit); and N. Qureshi and U. Qsmar (ProjectAdvisors). The following consultants also participated In the mission: Messrs.0. Ersenkal, P. Jones (Urban Infrastruture Specialists), D. Kennedy (HighwayEnginer) 9 A. 8. Kinawy (Architect), L. Moscoso, R. Percy (Irrigation Engineers),and T. Walton (Enironmental Speciast). Ur. U. Staab ( Project Advisor,, SA3DR)also joined the mission. Mr. Paul Isenman is the Department Director and hasendorsed the project. Durfig project preparation stage,o an Ad Hoc AdvisoryComittee, comprising staff throughout IDA, mot regularly to provide advi.e andassistane on issue. relating to policy, project design and implmentation.

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Schedule DPage 1 of 3

THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN PAKISTANA. STATEMENT OF SANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS

(As of December 31. 1992

Amount (USS million)Fiscal eess caneliatlone)

Loan No Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed

64 Loans and 70 credits have been fully disbursed 1888.89 1798.33

Cr. 1243-PAK 1982 Republic of Pakistan Salochistan Agfricultural Dev. 14.00 3.12Cr. 1348-PAK 1983 RepublIc of Paidstan Lahore Urban Development 16.00 5.35Cr. 1376-PAK 1083 Republic of Pakistan Fourth Dranae 33.74 O.9Cr. 1487-PAK 1984 Republic of Pakistan Command Water Management 40.50 6.67Cr. 1499-PAK 1984 Republi of Pakistan Second Small Industries 60.00 4.03Cr. 1532-PAK 1985 Republic of Pakdstan Left Bank Outfal Drain - Sage 1 160.00 135MLn. 2499-PAK 185 Republic of Pakistan Fourth WAPDA Power 100.00 2.83Cr. 1l02-PAK 1985 Republic of Paidstan Second Primary Education 52.50 23.68Ln. 256a-PAK 1985 Republic of Pakistan Fifth WAPDA Power 100.00 8S.Ln. 264-PAK 1988 Republic of Paidstan Industrianvestment Credit 148.00 0.94Cr. 1652-PAK 1988 Republic of Paildetan arachi Specia Dewopment 70.00 26.10Cr. 1670-PAK 18 Republic of Paistan Seoond Vocational Training 40.20 27.60Cr. 1693-PAK 18 Republic of Pakistan SCARP Transition Pilot 10.00 5.18Cr. 1659-PAK 1986 Republic of Pakistan Agitk. Dev. Bank of Pakistan VI 55.00 0.64Ln. 289-PAK 1986 Republic of Pakistan WAPDA VI-ot Addu Combined Cycle 90.00 1.11Ln. 2743-PAK 1987 Republic of Paidstan Telecommunications V 100.00 4.79Cr. 1755-PAK 1987 Republi of Pakistan Third Tehn AIstance 7.00 4.91Cr. 1762-PAK 1987 Repubtkc of Pakistan Agrk. Extension & Adaptive II 42.10 22.27Cr. 1821-PAK 1987 Republic of Pakistan Thid Primary Education 145.00 99.02Ln. 27m2-PAK 1987 Republic of Pakistan WAPDA Vii-Pwr Plant Efficiency 70.00 23.97Ln. 2814-PAK 1987 Republic of Pakistan Fourth Highways 152.00 688Ln. 2839-PAiK 1987 Republic of Pakistan Smali Industries III 54.00 41.15Ln. 2842-PAK 1987 Republic of tPaistan Refinery nergy Conservation 21.00 17.00Ln. 2884-PAK 1988 Republic of Pakistan Cement Industry Modemization 98.00 4.18Cr. 1888-PAK 1988 Republic of Pakistan Second Irrigation Systems Reheb 79.50 53.80Cr; 1895-PAK 1988 Repubic of Pakistan Punjab Urban Development 90.00 56.82Cr. 193S-PAK 1988 Republic of Pakitan Natol Ollseed Development 20.00 14.84Ln. 2973-PAK 1S88 Republic of Paldstan National Osed Development 31.40 31.40Ln. 2982-PAK 1988 Republic of Pakistan Private Secto nergy Developent 150.00 149.65Cr. 1982-PAK 1989 Repubic of Pakiesan IndueWl Investment Credit III 2.00 0.24Ln. 3019-PAK 1989 Republic of Paidstan InduesWl investment Credit III 148.00 86.50Cr. 1987-PAK 1989 Repubic of Pakisen Karachi Water & Sanitaon -I 125.00 91.04Ln. 3107-PAK 1980 Republic of Paisetan Energy Setor Loan IJ 260.00 23.40Cr. 2004-PAK 1989 Republic of Palidetan Private Tubewell Dev. 34.40 7.89Ln. 3147-PAK 1S90 Republic of Pakitan Powr Trane. Ext & Reinforce. 162.00 127.57Cr. 2078-PAK 1900 Republi of Paidean Rural iectrfation 37.00 35.02Ln. 3148-PAK 1900 Republi of Pakistan Rufal Electrification 123.00 123.00Cr. 2102-PAK 1690 Republic of Pakidstan Slndh Primary Educadon 112.50 98.65

- 14 -Schedule DPage 2 of 3

THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN PAKISTANA. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS

(As of December 31. 1992)

Amount (USS million)Fiscal (asso aneellations)

Loan No Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbureed

Cr. 21S3-PAK 1990 Republic of Pakistan Agriculture Credit 1.60 1.45Ln. 3226-PAK 1990 Republic of Pakistan Agriculture Credit 148.60 97.02Cr. 2164-PAK 1990 Republic of Pakistan Agriculture Research 11 57.30 88.6SLn. 2884-1 ? 1990 Republic of Pakistan Cement Industry Modem. 86.40 60.21Ln. 3107-1-P 1990 Republic of Pakistan Energy Sector Loan II Suppl. 28.00 27.48Ln. 3241-PAK 1990 Republic of Pakistan Transport Sector Investment 184.00 148.86Ln. 3262-PAK 1991 Republic of Pakistan Corp. Restruct. & Systems Expan. 130.00 102.81Ln. 3262-1-P 1991 Republic of Pakistan Corp. Restructuring Suppl. 60.00 60.00Cr. 2228-PAK 1891 Republic of Pakistan Rura Water Supply & Sanitation 136.70 131.60Ln. 3318-PAK 1991 Republic of Pakistan Microenterprise 28.00 26,9Cr. 2240-PAK 1991 Republic of Pakistan Family Health 45.00 4196Cr. 224S-PAK 1991 Republic of Pakistan Third On-Farm Water Management 47.30 36.70Ln. 3327-PAK 1991 Republic of Pakistan Third On-Farm Management 36.30 36.30Cr. 2257-PAK 1991 Republic of Pakistan Second SCARP Transtion 20.00 10.48Ln. 3335-PAK 1991 Republic of Pakistan Karachi Port Modemization 91.40 86.15Cr. 2354-PAK 1992 Republic of Pakistan Middle Sohooling 116.00 110.68Cr. 2383-PAK 1992 Republic of Pakistan Env. Prot. & Res. Co. 29.20 29.42Cr. 2410-PAK 1992 Republic of Pakistan East. Sadiqia So Phase 64.20 54.44Ln. 3500-PAK 1992 Republic of Pakistan Domestic Energy Resources 180.00 180.00

Total 4624.69 3536.97 Ia 2688.24of which has been repaid 936.69 176.17

Total now outstanding 3689.00 3361.80

Amount sold 33.09of which has been repaid 32.24

Total undisbursed 2688.24

la IDA Credits beginning with the 6th Replenishmerit are denominated In SORs, and are shownIn USS equivalents at the time of negotations. Disbursed amounts are computed at theexchange rate applicable at the date of this statement.

* Indicates SALISfCAL Loans and CreditsThis project officially closed on December 31, 1992. However, In keeping with current Sank practice,the project accounts will remain open until April 30. 1993 (4 months after the closing date)to allow for disbursements against withdrawal applications received c.o.b. April 30. 1993In respect of eligible expenditures incurred prior to the project's closing date.These projects officially closed on June 30. 1992. but the accounts have been kept open pendingreceipt of monies owed the Sank in connection with the operation of special accounts.

- 15 -Schedule 0Page 3 of 3

THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN PAKISTANS. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS

(As of December 31 1992)

Amount (SmilIlons)Date Borrower Purpose Loan Equity TOWa

1958 Steel Corp. of Pakistan Iron & Steel 0.63 0.631950 AdamJee Industries Ltd. Textiles 0.76 0.75196l115 Gharlbwal Cement Ltd. Cement 4.76 0.42 5.18196318175 PICIC DFC 3.00 3.00871801921961801821 Packages Umited Paper Products 17.00 1.24 18.2487889t1965 Crescent Juts Textiles 1.83 0.11 1.941967 Pakistan Paper Corp. Paper 4.83 2.02 6.851969/89 Dawood Hercules Fertilizer 18.30 2.92 21.221979 Fauji Foundation Polypropylene Bags 1.78 1.781979 Attock Refinery Ud. Chemicals & Petrochemicals 7.50 0.86 8.361979 Milkpak Ltd. Food Processing 1.90 0.40 2.301970/82 Pakistan Oilfields Ud. Chemicals & Petrochemicals 7.00 1.18 8.181980 Premier Board Particle Board 2.70 2.701981 Habib Arkady Ltd. Food & Food Procesng 3.10 0.16 3.311982 Asbestos Cement Ind. Ltd. Cement & Construction MaterIal 4.02 051 4.631983185 Pakistan Petroleum Ud. Chemicals & Petrochemicals 25.30 1.56 20.86i985 NOLC Leasing 6.49 0.37 5.861986/92 Mar Gas Company Ltd. Chemicals & Petrochemicals 44.48 44.481987189 Anglo-Sulsse Chemicals & Petrochemicals 8.80 6.801968 Fecto Cement Cement & Construction Material 18.58 18.681988 Millat Tractors Tractors 4.90 4.901989 Shame Textiles Textiles & Fibers 2.76 2.701989 Surai Cotton Textiles & Fibers 2.76 2.781989 Hala Spinning Textile Spinning 32 0.66 3.921990 Pak. Suzuki Automotive 18.17 18.171990 Rupali Polyester Synthetic Textiles 22.36 2.00 24.381990 FII Capitai Markets 1.57 1.671990 Housing Finance Corp. Capital Markets 5.63 0.49 6.021a91 Engro Chemicals Pak. Ltd. Chemicals & Petochemicals 36.20 8.50 44.7019S1 PILCO Capital Markets 5.00 5.001991 Prudential Discount Guaran Capital Markets 0.40 0.401991 ElM. The Fund Capital Markets 0.78 0.781991 EIL Capital Markets 0.24 0.241992 J.S. Stock Brokerage Capital Markets 0.89 0.8S1992 Rupafll Umited Synthetic Texties 14.38 0.34 14.721992 Sarah Textiles Textiles 6.00 1.50 7.501992 Central Securities Depositor Capital Markets 0.2 0.2

Total Gross Commitments 291.34 39.14 330.46

Less Cancellations. Termination ExchangesAdjustments, Prepayments and SalesWriteoffs and Sales 210.60 23.44 234.04

Total Commitments now held by IFC 80.74 16.70 98.t4uunu m _nauw

Total Undisbursed 35.87 4.30 40.17

lom OIV10M oyia ou z66y

J VZXIW& Io t 3l oVw3 9101 -

- 9T -

- 17 -

RAKISTM

1992 FLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATION PROJECT

Technical Anne

Table of ContentsPaae No.

I. ACKGROUND. ........... .. . .. . . 18Monsoon Season . . . . . . . .* , . , . . . , . . . . , 18The 1992 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . .a 18Operation o g Dam . . . . . . . . . . . . a . . . . 18Flood Damages . a o o ao 19Economic Impact . . . . . . . . .. * .. . .. .. . *. ... . 19Impact on the Government's Structural Adjustment Effort . 20

II. GOVERMENT RESPONSE FOR RECOVERY .. . . . . . . . . . . . 21

III. IDA RESPONSE AND ASSISTANCE STRATE .... . . ..... 22

IV. THE PROJECT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22HighwaySubsector .................... 22Irrigation, Drainage and Flood Protection Subsectors . . . 24Primary Education and Basic Health Facilities . . . . . . 27

V. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND PROJECT T!2PLEHENTATI_N .a . 28Coordinating Agency .................................. a 28lmplementing Agencies .................. * ........... 29National lighway Authority. .. . . . . . a........ ....... 29Provincial Departments of Commnications and Works .. . . 29Provincial Departments of Irrigation . . . . . . .. .. .. 29Provincial Departments of Education . . . . . . . . . . . 29Implementation Period . .. . . . . . ............... . 30Consulting Services . ..... .. ................ 31Financing Plan. . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . 31Procurement .. . . . . . a.. * .. . .. . .. 9. o..* .. . 32IDA Finmning of Civil Works . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 32Disbursements . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. *. .. . 32Special Accounts .nts.. . ... ................... 33Accounts and Audits ..................................... 33Selection of Subprojects ......... **......... 33

APPENDICES

1 - History of Floods in Pakistan and IDA's Assistance2 - Subproject Selection Criteria3 - Subproject Restoration Standards and Implementation Arrangements4 - Terms of Reference for Consulting Services5 - Subproject Procurement Procedures6 - Flood Forecasting and Warning System7 - Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File

- is -

PARISTM

1992 FLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATION PROJECT

Technical Annex

I. BACKGROUN

1.1 Monsoon Season. In Pakistan, the monsoon season stretches from end-June to mid-September vith the heaviest rains falling during the months of Julyand August. It is during these two months that the northern part of the country,the catcement area of all the major rivers in the country, receives one-third toone half of Its annual rainfall. Consequently, it Is during these months thatthe rain water through major rivers is collected in reservoirs of the dams to beused for irrigation and power generation during the year. In August 1992,exceptionally heavy rains, and the resulting floods, caused extensive damage tocrops and livestock in Sindh. This damage, however, was much less than thedestruction caused by the super flood which originated in the north of thecountry during the second week of September and devastated a substantial portionof the rural country side by ravaging thousands cf villages (and some cities),destroying standing crops on millions of acres and badly damaging transport,communication and irrigation infrastructure throughout the entire length of thecountry.

1.2 The 1992 Floods. On September 8, 1992, a low pressure area movingfrom Rajasthan in India in the south-east and a strong east moving depressioncoming from the west met over Kashmir and dropped more than 52 cms (20 inches)of rain during a period of 36 hours in the catchment areas of the Jhelum andChenab rivers. This extreme phenomenon, coupled with the past high degree ofdeforestation, resulted in flash floods in many areas of AJK and caused extensivedamage to the state's already fragile communication system. Within 48 hours,almost all the major bridges were destroyed and the road network was badlydamaged by a large number of mud and rockslides. In addition, continued heavyrains in the area caused a state of super flood in the Jhelum River (and atributary 'f Jhelum--Poonch River) upstream from Mangla Dam. Similarly, heavyrains in the DWPP caused extensive damage to the communication network in thatprovince. Worst hit in that province were the districts of Mansehra, Hazara andD.I. Khan.

1.3 ODeration of Manjla Dam. Mangla Dam is located in the Jhelum districtof Punjab on the Jhelum River. It has a total storage capacity of about 5.4 mafof water and an installed capacity of 800 megawatts of electricity. Althoughinitial heavy inflows into the Mangla reservoir were easily accommodated, anunexpected second flood peak forced WAPDA to discharge an enormous amount ofwater into the downstream river system. This huge outflow greatly accentuatedthe already critical flood situation. These developments are explained in moredetail below.

1.4 By end-August, the Mangla Dam's reservoir was already up to the levelgenerally believed to be sufficient for annual irrigation and power needs(elevation of 1,202 feet above the sea level). Apparently due to the weaktelemetric and inadequate flood forecasting system (a problem compounded by thefact that more than half of the catchment area falls under Indian control), WAPDAhad little advance knowledge about the amount of water that would be flowing into

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the Mangla reservoir on September 9 and 10. encoe, &A continued to dischargewater from the reservoir at a eteady rate of about 33 thoussad cusses, theminimum amount required to generate electricity from the Dem. This rate ofoutflow from the reservoir contliued even after the Inflow into the reservoirintreased four-fold in the pro-dawn hours of September 9.

1.5 It was only after 9 a.m., when the Inflow of water increased to 315thousand cusecs (ten times the normal flow) that WAPDA Increased the outflow to184 thousand cussecs. But in the next few hours, the inflow of water increasedto a super flood level and at 5 p.m. the first peak of about 1 million cusecsentered the reservoir. The Inflow, however, gredually decreased to 560 thousandcusecs by maid-night of September 9. Considering this heavy Inflow to be atemporary phenomenon, WAPDA authorities tried to maage the downstream flood bygradually increasing the outflow from 246 thousand cusses at 5 p.m. to 645thousand cusecs at maid-night of September 9, consequently raising the water levelin the reservoir to 1,208 feet above the sea level. However, the Inflow of waterincreased again and a second peak was reacebd (more then 1 million cuseCs enteredthe reservoir) at 4 a.m. on September 10.

1.6 In order to protect the structure from the risk of a possible thirdpeak, WAPDA decided to lower the level of water in the reservoir (from 1208 feet)and it increased the discharge to an average of 884 thousand cusecs for the next10 hours--thus releasing about 263 billion cubic feet of water, downstream intothe Jhelum. The injection of this amount of water (with an additional amount of200,000 to 300,000 cusees of rain water froa the flood and other drains) causeda surge in the water level of the Jhelum River and transmitted a major flood wavethroughout the length of the riverain system. It was this wave that made the1992 flood the worst flood in country's history aud caused enornu damage tolife and property.

1.7 Flood DjmMj s. The surge In water level caused by tho outflows fromMangla was too big to be contained by the protective river embankments and to bemanaged by the irrigation barrages and headworks. Renee, the water spilled overfrom the embankments inundating large areas, including agricultural lands withstanding crops. At some places, the rushing waters caused breaches in theprotective embankmets, while at other places breaches were deliberately made bythe civil and military authorities to minimize damage to the irrigation systemand/or to protect major cities from floods, thus causin further inundation oflarge tracts of rural areas.

1.8 Economic Imuact. The damage to infrastructure has disruptedtransportation and essential public services. Highways were flooded or blockedby landslides, and a number of bridges were destroyed or badly damaged. Railwaytransport, telecomdunlcation and power supply were disrupted temporarily. Whilethe damage to telecommunication facilities, power Installations and the railwayswas less severe, highways and bridges require a substantial reconstructioneffort.

1.9 Substantial damage also occurred to the Irrigation canals in Punjab.About 900 miles of irrigation canals and vater channls were badly dmaged.Rushing vaters caused breaches in the protective embankments, flood cont-ol andriver training structures. At other places, breaches were made by the civil andmilitary authorities to dininize damage to the Irrigation barrages, headworks andtheir ancillary structures, highways and bridges and to protect major cities from

- 20 -

floods. Although no sajor headworks we-re damaged, embankements must be restoredand tubewell etations that suffered from Inundation, must be made operationalagain.

1.10 The sector hardest hit by the flood vas agriculture. At least 1.9million bales of cottont four million tons of sugarcane and 0.5 million tons ofrice were lost due to inundation. Wheat-Pakistan's fourth most Important crop--was not affected as it is soon only in late autumn. In fact, it is expected thatthe wheat crop will be bigger than in the previous fiscal year and thuscompensate to so=e extent for the overall loss in agricultural production.However, substantial stocks from last year's output have been damaged. Estimatesof major crop damage Indicate a decline in output between -4 and -7Z, andagricultural growth in other crops and livestock will be significantly lower thanexpected. This translates into a negative growth contribution to GDP for theagricultural sector as a whole.

1.11 The Impact on the manufacturing sector is more difficult to estimate.Some subsectors hae been affected directly by the floods, such as cottonginning, cement, etc. Others suffer indirectly from the scarcity of agriculturalInputs and disruptions of communication. Whereas manufacturing output willexperience a loer rate of growth, the construction industry is oepected tobenefit. Within the Industrial sector, the increase in construction activitieswill probably compensate for production losses in manufacturing. Losses in theservices sectors, especialy retail, are not pervasive and recovery will berelatively fast, so that the shortfall in growth in this sector is likely to besmall.

1.12 According to estimates by Government officials and the fIP mission,the overall production impact of the floods requires a downward adjustment ofprojected GDP growth (at factor cost) by about 1-1/2 percentage points.Furthermore, as a result of higher subsidies and lower iudirect tax revenue, GDPgrowth In market prices would show an ev-n larger decline in comparison with pre-flood projections.

1.13 The Government's ability to contain adverse effects of the disruptionof public Infrastructure and services on private sector growth depends on itsfiscal maneuverability. Speedy reconstruction of higbways, roads, irrigation anddrainage system and other facilities is estimated by Government to cost aboutRs 9 billion In this fiscal year. The Government expressed its intention tomobilize part of the necessary resources through revenue measures and somereallocation within the Public Sector Development Program.

1.14 Iuact on the Gvermaent's Structural Adjustment Effort. Prior to thefloods, considerable progress had been made in the implementation of economicreforms. The Governmeat's policy of liberalization and privatization met witha favorable response of the private sector. Output and exports grew strongly in1T91/92, higher direct foreign investment and larger private domestic investmentled to a further upgraditg to the economy's capital stock. In 1Y92193 the reformprocess was continued with a deepening of the privatization program, some furtherliberalization of the trade regime, and financial sector reforms. The Governmentalso took steps to redress the pst neglect of the social sectors through theimplementation of the Social Action Program, and to address environmental issuesthrough the National Conserv&tion Strategy.

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1.15 While the formulation of a policy package for continued structuraladjustment was still being finalized vith the IMP and World Bank, the floodstruck the country. The Government reacted by giving priority to addressing theImmediate relief needs and tempora-ily postponing the adjustment efforts. TheGovernment expects to incur higher than planned expenditures due to the floods.Current expenditure is expected to be higher by Re 4 billion, mainly due torelief operations, and development expenditure would increase by Re 9 billion,due to the need of repairing the damage to the infrastructure. At the same time,a revenue shortfall of Rs 10.2 billion is expected. Thus the budget deficit isexpected to increase by Rs 23 billion, or 1.71 of GDP, compared to the previousfor FY92193.

1.16 The banking sector will also be affected by the incre.ental financingrequirements for commodity operations, extension of credit for recovery ofagricultural activities, and losses of collateral against outstanding bankcredits. Together with higher public sector borrowing, these developments areexpected to lead to a higher than targeted inflation rate (11.5 instead of 82).The major direct balance of payments impact results from the loss of exportreceipts (estimated at some US$465 million) and higher imports of foodstuffs andseeds, fertilizers and reconstruction equipment (US$245 million). Flood relatedincome losses may lead to some reduction in private sector imports, mitigatingthe direct balance of payments impact to some extent. However, the currentaccount deterioration will cause additional pressures on an already weak externalfinancial situation.

1I. GOVERNMENT RESPONSE FOR RECOVERY

2.1 Prime Minister's Relief Package. In order to alleviate some of thehardships caused by the floods, the Prime Minister (PM) announced a reliefpackage. It includes a compensation of Rs 50,000 to the fsmilies who lost anincome earning member (Rs 30,000 in case the deceased is not an earning member).The total cost of this compensation is estimated at Re 50 million. Acompensation of Re 5,000 is also announced for every house destroyed in floods(total cost of Rs 230 million). Also, the entire flood affected area is declareda calamity area, implying that residents of the area are exempted from paymentof income tax, wealth taxes, land revenues and user charges on irrigation water.Similarly, the recovery of principal and interest on agricultural loans wassuspended for one year. For an early rehabilitation of small farmers (havingland of 12.5 acres or less), the PM' a package includes interest free loans fromthe ADBP for purchase of seeds (one 40kg bag per acre) and fertilizer (two 40kgbags per acre). The cost of the package is to be met from the Zakat Fund and the1X surcharge levied on imports by the Ministry of Finance.

2.2 Apart from these immediate relief measures, no compensation forproduction losses are to be given to the private sector. The Government intendsto keep expenditures on the above mentioned relief package at a limit of Rs. 4billion. The damage to the public sector, however, requires substantialexpenditures for reconstruction and rehabilitation. Currently the Governmentestimates the cost of reconstruction to be about Rs. 12.8 billion. Although notall of the Government expenditure on reconstruction will happen in FY93, theadditional fiscal burden will still be considerable. In order to reduce t-,danger of macroeconomic destabilization, the Government is considering additionalmeasures to increase revenues, reduce current expenditures and rephase

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development expenditures. Both the Bank and the If are discussing with theGovernment ways to contain the adverse effects of the floods on macroeconomicbalances.

III. IDA RESPONSE AND ASSISTANCE STRATEgY

3.1 As soon as the magnitude of the flood damage became apparent, GOPindicated to the Bank's field office in Islamabad its intention to seek IDA'sassistance for emergency reconstruction. In order to enable IDA to respondquickly, once a formal request was received, the field office staff, on September10, 1992, immediately began gathering information from the federal and provincialgovernments and started liasing with potential donors. On September 24, 1992,the Government of Pakistan formally requested IDA to provide emergencyassistance. A Bank-wide Ad Hoc Advisory Group was immediately established tomobilize expertise in emergency operations, as well as to assist and advise onpolicy issues, project design and implementation and liaising with other donoragencies. As a first step to mobilizing resources, an analysis of ongoingprojects under implementation was undertaken. Four projects were identified ascandidates for utilization of funds, with a total of about US$50.0 millionconsidered available for immediate disbursement by implementing agencies for usein restoring flood damaged components. The scope of each ongoing project coversactivities that are broad enough to include flood rehabilitation work.Therefore, while these funds could be tapped for this purpose, no change in thelegal agreements would be required. These projects and the likely amounts thatcould be made available for the flood rehabilitation work are as follows:

-- Transport Sector Investment Ln. 3241-PAR, US$10.0 million-- Primary Education III, Punjab Cr. 1821-PAR, US$ 8.0 million-- Sindh Primary Education Dev. Cr. 2102-PAK, US$12.0 million-- Irrigation Systems Rehab II Cr. 1888-PAR, US$20.0 million

3.2 The second step was to organize a multi-sector mission to visitPakistan with the purpose of preparing and, if appropriate, appraising a projectfor IDA financing. ADB was also requested by the Government of Pakistan toprovide emergency funding, and the two institutions coordinated their effortsduring a mission in October 1992, and jointly appraised the proposed project.

IV. THE PROJECT

4.1 The proposed project comprises a three-year time slice of theGovernment's program to restore flood damaged public infrastructure affected bythe 1992 flood. The mission's findings and the components identified forfinancing by IDA and ADB are discussed below.

Riahway Subsector

4.2 Of the approximately 120,000 km of roads in Pakistan, 6,587 km aredesignated as national roads by the National Highway Authority Act 1991 under thejurisdiction of the Federal Government and 40,280 km are classified as provincialroads under the jurisdiction of the provincial governments. The remainder aredistrict, municipal and farm-to-market roads. All the national roads are pavedwith either asphaltic concrete or bituminous surface treatment. About 502 of theprovincial roads are estimated to be paved. In function, the provincial roadsrange from heavily trafficked intra-provincial links between major centers to

- 23 -

farm-to-market type roads, with varying surfaces of low standard bitucinous typethrough gravel or shingle to earth.

4.3 Damane Assessment. The runoff from the unusually heavy rains duringJuly and August 1992 caused serious damage to the national and provincial roadnetworks in Sindh and Balochistant roads in southern Punjab and MWRP were alsodamaged to a lesser extent. The surface water runoff from the rains exceeded thecapacity of the drainage structures at many locations, flooded over the road. andwashed away embankments and pavements adjacent to structures and In low-lyingareas. Bridge structures and culverts were damaged and river entrainment workswashed away.

4.4 Further damage to the road network was caused by the runoff fromcontinuous heavy rains during September in the northern catcbment areas of theJhelum and Chenab Rivers, resulting in further disruption to the road tran Sortsystem in the upper Punjab and NWiP areas. The two rivers and their tributariesswelled to record heights, not recorded since 1929, and carried trees, bouldersand other debris downstream. Five major bridges crossing the Jhelum River andone crossing the Kunhar River were swept from their bearings and carried ewaysthe approach roads to several of these bridges were also destroyed as were manybuildings adjacent to the roads. Small bridges and culverts were washed away orchoked with debris. Massive slips occurred in the road cuttings and embankments,and low-lying roads were overtopped and pavements washed out.

4.5 The resulting damage to the road network from the two rains wasextensive and affected all provinces. The damage to the national roads has beenrecorded by the provincial MRA offices and those records have been placed in theproject file. The damage was confirmed by selective site visits by IDA staff anda more detailed inspection by consultants. In addition to the hardships imposedon the inhabitants of the areas cut off, the resulting disruption to the nation'sroad transportation system caused substantial economic losses.

4.6 The Government's response was commendably prompt in mobilizing allresources to carry out tii following emergency work In order to ensure the supplyof food and medical supplies to isolated areas:

(a) clearing of debrisl

(b) construction of road diversions around damaged bridges and culvert.;

(c) provision of cable cars across rivers where road diversions were notpossiblet

(d) construction of cable ferries with ramps and approach roads at majorriver crossings; and

(e) construction of pontoon or other temporary bridges and approach roasat major river crossings.

4.7 The project would assist the NRA and the Prowvices In the design,repair, rehabilitation, reconstruction, and supervision of the rain and flooddamaged road infrastructure in order to restore the road network to its original,or more flood proof, condition. The subprojects to be selected for Inclusion inthe project will be subject to criteria as outlined In Appendix 2.

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4.8 The proposed project will comprise the following component,, andestimated costs are as shown In Table 1 belows

(a) reconstruction of damaged roads includin road embankments, pavement.,culverts, small bridges and related ancillary works;

(b) repairing breaches and damaged roads, providing additional floodprotection works and slope stabilization (including drainage vents,and culverts needed for passing larger flows in reconetructod roadsections);

(c) construction of the seven major bridges. and

(d) procurement of removable steel bridges.

Table--L- NATIONALIPROVINCIAL ROADS AND BRIDSEstilted Cost of Flood Damage by Province

(US$ million)

Provinces Foreign Local Total

M& Road. and Brid_..

Punjab 18.6 27.8 46.4Sindh 3.2 4.8 8.0UWYP 5.1 7.7 12.8Balochistan 4.0 6.0 10.0AJK 21.0 31.4 52.4Major Bridges 6.4 6.4 12.8Removable Bridge. 5.0 0.0 5.0

Sub-Total 63.2 84.2 147.4

Provincial Roads and Bridees

Punjab 13.5 25.0 38.4Sindh 6.2 11.5 17.6NMFW 11.2 20.9 32.1AJK 5.3 9.9 15.2

Sub-Total Ila 67.2 103.3

TOTAL 9. 15. 25a

Irriaation.-DrSinn and Flood Protection Subsectors

4.9 In July and August, heavy rains inundated v"t areas both in urban andrural Sindh. About 25,000 villages were flooded in the Provaie. According toinitial estimates, standing crops over 1609000 ha were wbolly or partiallydamaged and 39,000 heads of cattle were lost. Rainfall rn-off also resulted inextensive damage to irrigation, drainage and flood protection facilities.

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4.10 The most devastating floods were caused by unprecedented and wide-spread rains on September 8 and 9 in the catebments of Jhelum, Chenab sad IndusRivers, the federally administered northern areas, AJK, UWYP and moat of Punjab.Exceptionally high flows were recorded in the Chenal and Jhelum Rivers. In theChenab River, peak discharges of 845,000 to 950,000 cusecs were recorded at theMarala, Ehanki, end Qadirabad barrages. Large areas were inundated along theriver in the districts of Sialkot, Gujrat, Gujranwala and Jhang, causing damageto crops, villages, roads and irrigation and drainage facilities and other publicInfrastructure.

4.11 The tributaries of Jhelum River upstream of the Mangla Dam alsorecorded exceptionally high flows and several bridges were vashed away in AJK.In the Jhelum River, two successive peaks of over 950,000 cuseces were recordedat the Mangla Dam on September 9 and 10, within a span of a few hours, surpassingall past records. The Mangla reservoir was already full to its conservationlevel (elevation 1,202 above mean sea level). Because thx major part (551) ofthe river catchment is located in India and it takes only a few hours for floodwaters from the rim stations (the most upstream gauging stations) to reach thereservoir, the flood peaks could be reduced only partially through reservoirmanagement.

4.12 Several small villages downstream fr'm Mangla located in the floodpath were virtually destroyed with significant lose of life. The Raoul barragelocated down stream of Mangla received a peak flow of over 950,000 cusecs againstits designed capacity of 850,000. The left marginal bund upstream of the barragewas breached by overtopping. The flood waters caused breaches in the Rasul-Qadirabad link canal and also damaged the lower Jhelum canals which was breachedIn 39 locations. The flood also caused 281 breaches and cuts in the ShahpurBranch canal system. The Muhajir branch of the Thal canal and its distributorsalso suffered damages. Downstream of Raoul barrage, the Jhelum flood watersinundated large areas in the districts of Sargodha and Rhushab.

4.13 Fortunately, the flood peaks of Chenab and Jhelum Rivers synchronizedonly partially at the Trimmu barrage, located at their confluence. Even so, theflood flows exceeded the designed capacity of the barrage. To save the barragestructures from serious damage, sections of flood embankments were breached inorder to release pressure on barrage structures and towns downstream, byproviding an alternative flow path the flood waters. However, extensive damagewas caused to the Rangpur canal system, including its 16 distributors, in whichopenings occurred along a length of 140 miles. Downstream of Trimmu barrage, theChenab Is joined by the Ravi River, which was also flooded at that time. Thecombined fury of both rivers threatened the city of Multan and the importantShershah railway bridge. When the flood water rose to a critical level, the leftembankment of the bridge had to be breached. Mnother railway embankment (theDoaba Bund) was overtopped and areas adjoining the town of Muzafargarh wereInundated. The Muzafargarh canal and its distributors were damaged over a lengthof 65 miles.

4.14 Further downstream, the flood waters recorded a peak flow of over810,000 cusecs at the Panjmad barrage exceeding its designed capacity of 700,000cusecs. The breaching section on the right bank of the barrage was operated whenthe water rose to a critical level. The area between the barrage and the town

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of Alipur was inundated, but the town itself was saved from major damage by theembankment of Chanderwan distributor.

4.15 While the Jhelum and Chenab Rlivers were in spate, very high floodswere also experienced in the Indus River at Kalabagh, Chashma, and Taunsa. Rivertraining and flood protection facilities were damaged in D. I. Rhan In NW?P andsome areas downstream of Taunsa barrage were inundated along the river.

4.16 In Sindh, the combined flood waters of the Indus and its tributariescaused exceptionally high floods at the Guddu (over 1 million cusecs), Sukkur,and Kotri barrages. Wkiile these floods generally passed safely through thesestructures, damages were caused to river training and protection works. Theriverain areas between the flood embankments were inundated, and the localpopulation had to be evacuated.

4.17 In addition to the damages caused by the river flooding, torrentialrains in various districts of NW?P, AJR and the northern areas caused numerouslandslides and flash floods, resulting in extensive damage to farms, livestock,villages, private irrigation channels, flooding of tubewells and other privateand public infrastructure.

4.18 Works required to restore the damage would involve the followings

(a) Irrilation 8vstem. Repair of breaches and canal banks; removal ofsilt deposited by flood water; repair/reconstruction of controlstructures, bridges, outlets and irrigation buildings, such as gaugehuts, accomuodations and offices.

(b) Drainnee System. Desilting of drainage channels, repair/reconstruction of inlet structures, repair of breaches and otherancillary works.

(c) Flood Protection Works. Repair of breaches and restoration of erodedembankments; repair of hydraulic structures; and restoration of rivercontrol spurs.

(d) Dams and Weirs. These structures which are located in damagedirrigation schemes will require restoration of embankments, aprons,spillways and outlet control structures, and stone pitching.

(e) arrastes. Repair of control gate and operating mechanisms;reinstatement of stonework protection on guide bunds and in downstreamaprons; and restoration of earthworks on guide and marginal bunds.

4.19 Table 2 below shows the estimated cost of the flood dmage byprovince.

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ZdL2 - I=CIATION hUD DIEI/FLOOD PROTECTION0Eostiated Coat of Flood Damage by Province

(US$ million)

z1gibmo Foreign Local Total

Punjab 10.4 41.6 52.0Sindh 4.2 17.0 21.2rWw 1.6 6.6 8.2AJK 0.0 0.2 0.2

TOTAL 353Ha

rIMa Education ad Basic Health Facilities

4.20 The flood damage in the education and health sectora can becategorized aa followes (a) schools (primary, middle and high) and basic healthfacilities beyond repair which require total rebuilding; and (b) dmaged schoolsand health facilities which can be repaired. In the flood affected provinces(Punjabs Sindh, WP1) ani AJR, the number of dmaged schools in four provl:nce.Is estimated at about 3,320 of which about 2,321 are primry educationfacilities The basic health centers did not suffer major dmages as the schoolsand the majority of damges are repairable.

4.21 Most of the dmage to the schools and health facilities wereattributed to the severity of the flood, to the length of tim it lasted, and toplaes affected by major landslides. Buildings on those places should berelocated to avoid future disaster. The nature of damages in school buildingsare mainly in boundary walls, flooring, roofing, swerage, toilets, gates anddemolition of class roams totally or partially.

4.22 The primry schools reconstruction/reair costs are estimated atUS$54.8 million equivalent and that of the basic health facilities US$3.7mllion. Table 3 below provides estimated costs of the repair and rehabilitationactivities which will comprises

(a) Repair of buildings, and ancillary structures and/or construction;

(b) Rehabilitation and/or construction of sanitary facilities; and

(c) Repair and/or replacement of basic furniture and fixtures needed toreader facilities fully operational.

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Table 3 - PRIMARY SCHOOLS AEID BASIC -HEALTH UACILITIESEstimated Coat of Flood Damage by Province

US$ million

Provinces Foreign Local Total

Prurv Schools

Punjab 1.8 34.5 36.4Sindh 0.6 11.4 12.0WIWP 0.3 4.9 5.1AJK 0.1 1.2 1.3

Sub-Total 2.7 52.0 54.8

Iuice Healthl Facilities

Punjab 0.1 1.4 1.4Sindh 0.0 0.4 0.4UNIV 0.1 1.4 1.5AUK 0.0 0.4 0.4

Sub-Total 0.2 3.6 3.7

TOTAL 2.9 556 8.5

V. INSTITUTIONAL ARRNGEEN AND PROJECT IEIITTiI

Coordinating Aaenev

5.1 The Federal Flood Commission (FFC) of the Government's Ministry ofWater and Power will be the Coordinating Agency for the project. FPC wasestablished in 1977 when the Federal Government assumed responsibility for thefunding of flood protection works after the 1973 and 1976 floods. FFC was giventhe mandate to provide overall planning and coordination of the country's floodprotection works and to provide overall planning and coordination of thecountry's flood protection development. Day-to-day activities of the FCC are theresponsibility of the Federal Flood Cell attached to FFC.

5.2 FEC was the Coordinating Agency of the IDA's and ADB's 1988 FloodDamage Restoration Projects. At present, FFC is the executing agency of theongoing ADB financed Flood Protection Sector Project. PFC's role in theimplemantation of these projects relates to overall coordination, the appointmentof consultants and the administration of the federal budget. The planning,design and execution of the physical works is carried out by the provincialimplemeting agencies with the assistance of consultants. Based on theexperience gained on previous projects, the FPC is considered capable of carryingout the required project coordination and administration tasks for the proposedproject.

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5.3 PFC would be responsible for (a) overall coordination of the projectand liaison with the financing agencies, (b) procurement of consultant services9(c) preparation of budget requests and follow-up of fund releases, (d) monitoringof project implementation, (e) maintenance of the project accounts relating toexpenditure by FEC and consolidation of financial records of the implementingagencies, (f) submission to the Bank of withdrawal applications, and (g)preparation of progress reports and a project completion report. Consultantsvill assist FFC in these tasks.

ImDlementing Agencies

5.4 Each implementing agency will be responsible, in respect of theactivities to be carried out by it, for: (a) selection of subprojects; (b) designof civil works; (c) preparation of tender documents and engagement of civil workscontractors; (d) land acquisition; (e) supervision of civil works contracts; (f)maintenance of accounts; and (g) submission of requests for payment to theProvincial Flood Damage Restoration Cells (PPDRC). The PFDRC will be headed bya Provincial Project Coordinator assisted by suitable professional and supportstaff to coordinate overall project implementation at the provincial level. ThePFDRC will, inter aliat (a) operate the relevant Special Account and submitwithdrawal applications to IDA with a copy to FFC; (b) monitor the auditing ofthe project accounts; and (c) consolidate and furnish to FFC, within 30 days ofeach reporting period; quarterly and annual progress reports received from theimplementing agencies. The following agencies will be responsible forimplementation of their respective parts of the project.

5.5 National Hiahwav Authority -NRA). The NH will be responsible forrestoration of national highways under its jurisdiction and certain selectedworks under the jurisdiction of the provincial authorities. NMA has been set upas an autonomous organization, under the National Highway Authority Act of 19919and is responsible for the planning, design, construction and maintenance of thenational highway system, which extends to about 6,000 km of the 120,000-km roadnetwork of the country. Under the project, NIA will be responsible for therestoration of national highways and, in particular, for the reconstruction ofa number of major bridges on these highways which were destroyed by the floods.While NRA's involvement with ADB has been limited to the role of coordinator forthe preparation of the Provincial Highways Project, it has worked extensivelywith IDA and is familiar with the procedures, guidelines and operation of specialaccounts which apply to externally-financed projects of this nature. MBA has theadministrative and technical capacity to provide the support necessary for itscomponents under the proposed project.

5.6 Provincial Departments of Communications and Works. The ProvincialDepartments of Communications and Works (CWDs) would be responsible forrestoration of provincial and district (farm-to-market) roads under theirjurisdiction and of basic health facilities in their respective provinces and,in NWEP, for restoration of primary education facilities. The CWD in eachprovince would be responsible for roads declared to be provincial roads and, inEWFP, for construction and maintenance of education facilities and otherbuildings. Provincial roads total around 40,000 km and range from heavilytrafficked intra-provincial highways to single lane farm-to-market accesses. TheCWDs construct and carry out heavy maintenance on their networks through local

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contractors which are engaged and supervised through district-based organizationsheaded by an executive engineer. Routine maintenance and immediate restorationafter natural disasters is generally implemented through force account, againunder the control of the executive engineer. The CWDs have extensive experiencewith the procurement and special account procedures through the ADB Farm-To-Market Roads project, and will be able to deal with the additional workloadarising from the proposed project without major difficulty, in particular since,as is the case with the ongoing projecto, they will be assisted by consultants.

5.7 Provincial Departments of Irrigation. The Provincial Departments ofIrrigation (PIDs) would be responsible for restoration of irrigation, drainageand flood control facilities in their respective provinces. The PIDs areestablished institutions that are responsible for the operation and maintenanceof the irrigation and drainage systems and the maintenance of flood controlworks.

5.8 Under IDA's and ADB's Flood Damage Restoration Projects of 1988, thePIDs implemented works for irrigation, drainage and flood control infrastructure.The PIDs are also the implementing agencies for the ongoing ADB-financed FloodProtection Sector Project. Considering the successful implementation of theprevious restoration projects, the PIDs are considered to have the requiredimplementation capacity to also carry out the restoration works under theproposed project.

5.9 Provincial Departments of Education. The Provincial Departments ofEducation ould be responsible for selection of flood-damaged primary educationfacilities to be rebuilt under the proposed project. In NWFP and AJK,construction of schools would be carried out under the supervision of theCommunication and Works Departments. In Punjab and Sindh provinces, constructionand rehabilitation of primary education facilities is currently theresponsibility of the civil engineering units of the education departments.However, under the previous and on-going IDA-financed education projects, theseunits have not been able to implment the full programs which they were assigned.The units have now been strengthened, and will take responsibility forimplementing the reconstruction of flood-damaged schools financed under theproposed project and from the on-going credits. However, in areas where unitshave inadequate implementation capacity, reconstruction of schools to be financedunder the proposed project would be undertaken by other agencies, based oninstructions of the provincial education departments. Provincial governmentswill propose suitable arrangements for implementation of the school restorationcomponent of the project.

Implementation Period

5.10 Project implementation has been under way since September 1992starting with the restoration of vital services and preliminary steps toimplement permanent restoration works. It is anticipated that it would takethree construction seasons to complete all project related works. Eachconstruction season excludes the months of July, August and September, whichcorrespond to the rainy season in Pakistan. The project will be physicallycompleted by June 30, 1996.

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ConsultinR Services

5.11 A firm of consultants will be eusaged under the project to assist thePFC and the Implementing Agencies in the general areas shown below. An outlineof terms of reference for the consulting services are given in Appendix 4.

(a) overall project coordination and supervision;

(b) certification of eligible projects/subprojects and their costs;

(c) engineering assistance and Intermittent supervision of the worksg

(d) certification of progress payments oan a random basis and all finalpayments;

(e) preparation and conduct of a project review not later than one yearafter the date of credit effectiveness; and

(f) preparation of monthly and quarterly progress revorts and a projectcompletion report.

Financina Plan

5.12 The project cost of Part I is estimated at US$397.2 millionequivalent, with a foreign exchange component of about US$119.8 millionequivalent (301) and taxes and duties estimated at about US$40.0 millionequivalent. The IDA credit of US$100.0 million equlvalent and ADB's contributionof a sgimilar amount would finance about 50S of the cost of Part I. In addition,a utilization of funds from existing World Bank/IDA-financed ongoing projectswould finance up to 131 of the cost. The balance would be provided by theGovernment and other potential donors. Because of the emrgency nature of thework and the critical need for IDA assistance, retroactive financitg would beprovided on an exceptional basis for expenditures Incurred on authorized projectactivities since Sentember 10. 1992.

5.13 The proposed credit would be on standard TDA terms with 35 yearsmaturity. The proceeds of the IDA credit will be retained partly by the FederalGovernment for use by the Federal Flood Comission, with the rest being madeavailable to NHR and IWFP, Punjab, Sindh, Dalochistan (the provinces) and AJKthrough budgetary allocations on a first-come, first-serve basis.

5.14 The Government agreed that it would make available on a timely basisall necessary budgetary allocations to ensure that matching funds are available.The proposed IDA credit would finances (a) civil works under Part I of theproject; (b) procurement of removable steel bridges (Bailey-type or equivalent);and (c) consultancy services during project implementation. IDA and ADB vouldjoint'? finance the costs of consultant services and individually fiance eachof the subprojects.

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Procurement

5.15 Procurement will be carried out according to World Bank Guidelines forProcurement dated May 1992. It is envisaged that, except as stated below,procurement will be confined to civil works which will mainly be undertakeu bycontractors whose services will be procured under local competitive biddingprocedures acceptable to IDA and detailed in Appendix 5. Inter alia, theseprocedures require that for all contracts, the period for bid preparation willbe a minimum of 30 days. Construction of major bridges identified by MNA underthe project will be carried out under contracts awarded using internationalcompetitive bidding procedures according to World Bank Guidelines. Limitedinternational bidding procedures will be adopted for the proposed procurement ofremovable bridges (Bailey-type or euivalent) by DNA. Force account would beused only for restoration of some schools end basic health facilities and forselected flood control and irrigation works. For other works, force accountwould be eligible only during the period applicable to retroactive financing.

5.16 Certain emergency works which have already been carried out underforce account, direct contractitg, local shopping, or through variation orderson existing contracts will be reviewed by IDA on a case-by-case basis foreligibility under retroactive financing. All civil works contracts with a valueof Rs 25 million or more, all contracts for construction of major bridges, andall contracts for procurement of Bailey-type bridges, will be subject to priorIDA review and approval. Advance procurement action has been agreed between theGovernment and the management of IDAJADB In respect of priority subprojects oncondition that all advance action is carried out In accordance with procurementprocedures detailed in Appendix S.

IDA Financina of Civil Works

5.17 Prior to the coommeemeut of civil workes pre-construction surveysshould be prepared in adequate detail to allow verification of work quantitiesby the consultants, and would be made available for random checking by IDAsupervision missions. Only civil works for which adequate pre-construetionsurveys are available will be eligible for IDA financing.

Disbursements

5.18 The proceeds of the IDA credit would be disbursed against eligibleexpenditures as follows:

(a) Civil works - 9O0 of expenditures net of taxes;

(b) Goods - 1002 of CII value of ramovable bridgesg and

(c) Technical Assistance - 1008 not of taxes(502 by IDA and 502 by ADB).

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Special Accounts

5.19 A Special Account would be established in the National Bank ofPakistan by FPC and NUA and by each participating province, aud AJK. All theSpecial Accounts taken together would have an initial aggregate deposit in USdollars of approximately US$10.5 million equivalent, and on terms and conditionssatisfactory to IDA. All disbursements against contracts for less thanUS$400,000 million for works would be made on the basis of Statements ofExpenditures (SOEs) certified by the supervisory consultants. The documentationfor SOEs would not be sent to IDA, but would be retained by the implementingagencies and made available for audit by the project auditors, and inspection byIDA supervision missions. Disbursements for expenditures exceeding that amountwould be against full documentation. Disbursements for force account would bemade on the basis of measured output, at rates reviewed by the supervisoryconsultants and subject to approval by IDA.

5.20 Assuming that the credit would become effective by June 1993, theestimated completion of the project would be June 30, 1996, with a proposedclosing date of December 31, 1996.

Accounts and Audit

5.21 Annual andits of expenditures by each participating province, AJK, NBand PFC would be performed by the Auditor General of Pakistan. The audit reportscovering Special Accounts and SOEs would be submitted to IDA not later than sixmonths after the close of each fiscal year.

Selection of SubDroiects

5.22 Each project implementing agency will submit subprojects to FPC fora decision, in consultation with IDA and ADB, on the source of financing. Indetermining the source of financing, FCC wiil take into account the need for abalanced commitment of the IDA credit and ADB loan. The selection of thesubprojects will be done according to the agreed criteria (Appendix 2) and anindication will be given as to how each subproject conforms to the criteria. Thescope of subprojects for restoration of primary schools and basic healthfacilities will be limited to replacement of facilities that have been damagedbeyond repair. Subprojects proposed for Bank financing whose total cost exceedsUS$1.0 million equivalent will be submitted to IDA for prior review. Thisrequirement will enable IDA to cover, among others, all subprojects which willinvolve major restoration works to the facilities or which are otherwise oftechnically complex nature. The lists of subprojects may be revised and updatedfrom time to time, but no new subprojects, the implementation of which wouldextend beyond the date of physical completion of the project, will be submittedto IDA.

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Ai,uendix 1Pasge 1 of 5

=AtSTANl

1992 FLOOD DANAGE RESTORATION CROJECT

History of Floods in Pakistan and IDA's Assistance

A. The Problem

1. Pakistan comprises two main topographic regions. By far the most importantis the Indus river basin which covers most of the Punjab and Sind and amall areasof the other two Provinces, Balochistan and North West Frontier Province. Theother region is the dry, sparsely populated inland basin of Balochistan. Abouttwo-thirds of the In'.s basin is vithin Pakistan but the headwaters of its mainleft bank tributaries, the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers lie to thenorth in India. About half the annual discharges of the Indus rivers arediverted in Pakistan into one the world's largest canal irrigation systems. Inthe system some 33 million acres of the Indus Plains are served by about 38,000miles of canals and by two major storage dams, Mangla on the Jhelum river andTarbela on the Indus. Other key components of the system are 17 major diversionbarrages.

2. Floods in Pakistan occur most frequently and are most extensive anddamagingi in the Indus Plains. Because of different hydrologic and topographicconditions, and their less dense populations, floods in Balochistan and NorthWest Frontier Provinces are not so extensive or damaging.

3. Rivers in the Indus Plains are prone to channel aggradation, a gradual risein the elevation of the river bed, and consequently to a deterioration in theircapacity to carry high flows. This is a natural characteristic that to someextent has been intensified by heavy withdrawals for irrigation and theconstruction of storage reservoirs. Floods in the Plains are generated in themountainous upper catecment areas of the Indus and its tributaries where intenserainfall, snow-melt, steep gradients and limited valley storage can cause a rapidbuild up of high river flows. On reaching the broad, relatively flat IndusPlains, flows with elevations only slightly above the river banks can spread andcause flooding over large areas, especially in Sind. Flood risk is most highduring the July through September monsoon period.

4. Flood protection in the Indus Plains is achieved largely through theconstruction of flood protection embankments or bunds. In Sind Province, theIndus is bunded on both banks for virtually its entire length. In Punjab,marginal bunds have been constructed at all barrages and major river structures.These flow-directing embankments protect the works from being by-passed when therivers are in flood. Overtopping of bunds occurs only rarely. However, failureor breaches can occur at any location and result in the unpredictable inundationof large areas. Furthermore, irrigation canals can convey flood water longdistances from the point of river spill. In the Punjab, the general land slopeis to the southwest; consequently, failures of bunds on the left banks of riversare particularly serious as water spilled will not drain back into the river.

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Arnnedix 1Page 2 of 5

5. Improvement of the existing flood protection system of levees or bundsalong the rivers is the only practical weans, in the foreseeable future, forprotection against floods. A technically better solution would be constructionof a reservoir complex of sufficient size to provide storage and thus the controlof floods. Unfortunately, there are very limited possibilities for theconstruction of such a complex at reasonable cost and no such development wouldappear economically feasible In the near future.

6. A flood forecasting ard warning system has evolved over the years. Acentral feature of this system is a flood Warning Center (FWC) established eachmonsoon season at Lahore (Punjab) by the Pakistan Meteorological Department(PMD). Flood forecasting procedures used by PMD include estimating rainfall inthe upper catchment areas and using hydrological techniques that take account offorecast or measured rainfall, antecedent moisture conditions, time of year andriver basin flow.

B. The 1973 Floods and Rehabilitation Progr=m

7. In August 1973 there were serious floods in Paklstan for the first time in13 years. Heavy monsoon rains caused breacher in the bi.nds at ten places in thePunjab and three places In the Sind, causing videspread inundation and severedamage. Altogether some 10 million acres were inu=dated, of which 4 million wereunder crops.

8. At the request of the Pakistan Governament, IDA, in collaboration with otherspecialized agencies of the U.N. system made an assessment of the flood situationin October 1973 and appraised a flood rehabilitation program for which an IDACredit of $35 million was approv&d by the Executive Directors and signed inMarch, 1974 (Credit No. 466 PAR). Under this Credit, US$18 million was allocatedfor industrial Imports to relieve the impact on the balance of payments. Theother US$17 million financed various activities directly related to flood damage,principally the repair and reconstruction of flood protection, drainage and roadsystems and spare parts and other items for agricultural equipment and Governmentconstruction machinery.

9. All restoration works under the 1974 credit were completed before the onsetof the 1974 monsoon. This excellent progress reflected good cooperation andeffort by the various Government agencies concerned and close supervision byconsultants. The project Improved parts of the system to standards above thepre-flood conditions and the works stood up vell to the further severe floodswhich occurred in 1975 and 1976. Implementation of the industrial importsprogram financed under the 1974 credit aloo progressed satisfactorily. Althoughdelays in procurement of some specialized Items for agricultural equipment andconstruction machinery necessitated an extension of the credit by 18 months, allfunds had been committed by the ne Closing Date of December 319 1976.

10. In addition to its physical aspects, the 1974 credit initiated studiesaimed at reducing the possibility of flood disasters in the loger term. Forthis purpose, the credit provided finanee for consultants to review the floodforecasting, warning and protection arrangemts * The consultants recommendedimprovements to the flood forecasting and warning system which have beenincorporated in a UDDP/World Meteorological Organization Project In Pakistan.

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Aupendix 1Page 3 of 5

Under this project, a Qu8ntitative Precipitation Measurement (QPM) Radar StationIs to be installed. Due to delays In approval of the WMO/UNDP project,escalation in equipment costs made it impossible to procure another essentialelement of the meteorological facilities, a Meteorological Satellite ReadoutStation (MSRS) for identification and tracking of intense monsoon depressions.The proposed IDA project includes the procurement and installation of the MSRS.

11. Under the 1974 credit, the consultants also completed a preliminary surveyof flood protection systems in Pakistan and recommended a full-scale studyleaftng to che formulation of a national flood proteotion program. In line withthe consultants recommendations, the Government estallished a Federal FloodCommission in January 1977 with responsibility for preparing a flood prot,.ctionplan for the country.

C. The 1976 Floods

12. In the monsoon season of 1976 Pakistan experienced unusually heavyrainfall. During June through September, rainfall exceeded the 30-year averageexcept for northern Balochistan by at least 502, but in many areas by more than1002; for example, Lahore (Punjab) 1752, PePhawar (North West Frontier Province)2302 and Jacobabad (Sind Province) 128Z. For 23 representative recordingstations, rainfall in the four months exceeded that of 1973 by about 102. Therains fell with consiudrable intensity often in excess of lOOmm/day, exceedingsoil absorptive capacity and causing heavier than usual runoff. This resultedin extensive and serious flooding as vel.. as damage from hill torrents and thedirect impact of continuous torrential rain.

13. Much as In 1973, the Punjab experienced the first impact of the highrainfall when flows In the Rlvi, the most flood-prone river of the basin, and theChenab river bagan to rise rapidly in the second half of July. Serious flashflooding also occurred. Discharges at the Balloki and Sidhnai barrages on theRavi excueded design capacities, and on August 15 the highest ever discharge wasrecorded at Sidhnai. Water levels in the Indus started rising in the third weekof July In the wake of heavy rains in its catebment area. When these flows werejoined by those of the left bank tributaries at Panjnad, levels quickly rose torecord peaks. On August 16, 1976 a new record of 1,200,000 cusecs wasestablished at the Sukkur Barrage. High flows in the Indus resulted in severalbreaches in the river's protective bunds and In canals, which resulted inwidesprea4 flooding in Sind. Thie was exacerbated by unprecedented heavyrainfall in the first two weke of September in Sind and lalochistan which causedextensive local damage.

14. The floods, which inundated more than 20 million acres, and heavy rainscaused loss of life, the destruction end damage of mwuch private propertyt inparticular private houses, air' losses of crops and livestock. Four hundred andthirty people are reported to ,o died through drowning and through being buriedunder collapsed houses. A feature of the disaster was the collapse of houses andbuildings whose structures became saturated with rain and flood water. A verylarge number of public buildings were destroyed or seriously damaged. Forexample, a total of 8,900 educational institutions were damaged, of which 6,100were totally destroyed. Most of these vere mud-built primary schools, but 900middle schools and 40 high schools were also destroyed. The mud-built houses of

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A&Rendii 1Page 4 of 5

-rural people suffered most. Some 18,000 villages were affected and it wasestimated that over one million houses totally collapsed or were badly damaged.There was considerable lose of grain and seed stored in these buildings. Morethan 3 million acres of kharif (summer) crop were affected by the flooding andthe equivalent of about 2.4 million acres of crops were totally destroyed.

15. Damage to infrastructure was also substantial. Eighteen sections ofrailway lines in Punjab and four .n each of Sind, Balochistan and West FrontierProvinces were damaged. The national highway network suffered extensive damage.In the Indus Plains, flood waters broke protecting bunds, breached embankmentsand submerged low-lying roads. Where river originating floods did not occur,rainfall stagnated for weeks alongside roads, saturating the subgrade. Whenthese roads were re-opened, traffic caused the pavement to disintegrates and onlong stretches the roads suffered serious deformation.

16. The storms and floods caused widespread damage in the irrigation sector.Severe damage was caused to 13 of the 17 barrages and to seven of the major linkcanals. Several serious breaches were made in flood protection bunds, more thanhalf of the canal system irrigating over 10 million acres was damaged, and some1,000 public tubewells and a number of small dams were destroyed. In Balochistanthe 62-ft. high Bolan dam was overtopped and washed out.

17. Pakistan incurred an estimated foreign exchange losses of over US$300million because of the floods. Lost cotton exports and edible oil imported tomeet deficits in cottonseed oil production accounted for about US$190 million.Losses of stored grain and, because of damage to irrigation facilities, of rabi(winter) season wbeat, an estimated US$45 million in terms of exports orreplacement imports, after deducting increas3-d production attributable to betteesoil moisture conditions. The foreign exchange cost of the priority restorationprogram, was estimated at about US$60 million plus the cost of farm tractors (anestimated 400) needed to replace the 12,000 draft animals lost.

18. Because of the floods, budget revenues from cotton exports declined byabout Rs 480 million and other revenues by Rs 200 million, a net loss of Re 680million (US$68 million). This figure does not include the estimated Rs 2.23billion needed to restore infrastructure and public buildings to the pre-floodsituation; GOP met these costs by external assistance and by deferring orcurtailing development schemes.

D. The 1988 Floods

19. Pakistan experienced two separate and devastating floods in 1988. In Julyand August, heavy rains fell in the upper catcbment areas. This resulted in highflows in the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers, which coincided with heavy rainsin Sind. Flows of over 1.1 million cusece were recorded in August at the Gudduand Sukkur barrages on the lower Indus river. Serious flood damage occurred inSind at this time. Also in August, extresmely intense rainfall occurred in theNorth West Frontier Province and Balochistan, causing flash floods and resultingin heavy damage. The second flood, which occurred in September and October, wascaused by heavy rains in the upper catcbments in India of the Chonab, Ravi andSutlej rivers where flows approached or exceeded historic levels at most gaugingstations. Damage from this flood was extremely heavy but fortunately was limited

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ADgendix 1Page 5 of 5

to Punjab. An estimated 400 lives were lost, and three million people were madehomeless. About one million ha or irrigated crop land was inundated, with largelosse, to the cotton, rice, and sugarcane crops, and major losses wereexperienced in the large industrial area along the Ravi river in the Lahoresuburbs. A summary of damage to public infrastructure (irrigation, drainage,flood protection, roads, railways, telephone and telegraph, schools, healthfacilities, etc) is as followss

(a) about 1,500 km of canals, drainage channels and floodprotection works in Punjab, three major canal commandsin Sind, the Pat Feeder canal in Balochistan, and WarsakLift and Mama Khil Jaded Canals in UWFP;

(b) about 500 km of major flood protection work.;

(c) over 3,000 km of roads and related structures;

(d) 15 sections of railways totaling over 100 breaches ofembankments;

(e) 2,150 public buildings; and

(f) a major telephone and telegraph coaxial cable betweenMultan and Bahawalpur, and telephone exchange facilitiesin Lahore.

20. It was estimated that as a result of these floods about one millionhectares of irrigated crop land and settled areas were inundated or otherwiseadversely affected, resulting in large losses to the cotton, rice and sugarcanecrops. More than three million people were made homeless and about 500 liveswere lost.

21. Immediately following the floods, GOP and Provincial Governments mobilizedrelief programs and undertook restoration measures wit their own funds. However,the magnitude of restoration work required and the shortage of budget fundsresulted in GOP's urgent appeals for international donor assistance in thisemergency. IDA responded by instructing a water sector mission visiting Pakistanin October 1988 to assess the damage and need for assistance, and approving theSDR 30.6 million (US$40.0 million) credit for restoration of selected publicinfrastructure which is the subject of this PCR. The Asian Development Bank(ADB) approved a parallel project for US$44 million (Loan 957-PAK). Governmentdesignated specific administrative units to the IDA and ADB projects. Inaddition, the Islamic Development Bank offered a loan of US$10 million for therestoration of health, education, railway and telecommunication facilities, butthis assistance did not materialize. The IDA and ADB projects, includingGovernment contributions, covered the restoration to their preflood condition ofalmost all damaged public irrigation, drainage, flood protection and roadfacilities.

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Paso 1 of 4

1992 FLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATION PROJECT

_ubnrolect Selection Criterig

A. General Criteria

1. The following general and sector-specific criteri are to be used Inselecting subprojects for Bank financing. Where 'the Bank' Is mentioned it shallbe understood to refer to both the World Bank and to the Asian Developmet Bank,unless the context requires otherwise. Except as the Bank may otherise agree,each Implementing Agency shall select and prioritize subprojects for inclusionin accordance with the criteria set out in paragraphs 2 to 5 below.

2. To be accepted for inclusion within the Project, the vorks under theproposed subprojects shall meet the following general criteria:

i. The works are located within the area affected by the exceptional1992 flood and rainfall events 1 , over the period July to September1992;

ii. The works are a consequence of the 1992 flood and rain events, orare works which, if not undertaken, will degrade or severelydiintish the effectiveness of other flood dmage being repairedunder the Project;

iii. The dmage has been caused by flooding and rains, either directly(through overtopping, scour, or similar action), or indirectly(through, for example, weakening of foundations, protection works orpavement structures leading to premature failure under traffic,etc), and will include breaches cut in road and other embankments toreduce the impact of the flood;

iv. Where conditions have changed so significantly since the originalfacility was constructed that a major improvement is now required,the proposed improvement will be subject to an appropriate economicevaluation, the results of which will be submitted to the Bank Insupport of a request to include the improvement in the Project; and

V. Subprojects estimated to cost Re 25.0 million or more will requirethe Bank's prior review and approval.

11 The geographic scope of the assistance provided by the Astan DevelopaentBank will be four provinces, i.e. Punjab, Belochistan, North West Frontierand Sindh.

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Page3 2 of b

3. Proposed subprojects with the following works shall not be includedwithin the Projects

Lo Works undertaken as an interim masure to provide provisional repairto damaged infrastructure (except when carried out under thecircumstances for proavicial roads set out In pars D. a.11.followins) implemented to restore traffic access,, irrisationsupplies and flood protection on an Interim basis or emergency basiswhich require replacement afterwards to meet appropriateconstruction standardso

iI. Work. which are not flood-related (e.g. deferred maintenance);

III. Work. having adverse effects on natural ecosystem and theenviroament;

iv. Works financed by other donor agencies; and

v. Works executed by the military.

D. Sector-Saecific Criteria

4. Subprojects eligible for Inclusion within the Project according tothe above general criteria shall be subjected to the following sector-specificselection and priority criterias

National Xiahws and ProvIncial Roads

ae National Highways and Provincial Roads shall be selected andprioritized In accordance with the following criteria.

i. The roads are under the administrative control of the NationalHighway Authority (MIA) or the provincial Communications and Work.Departments (CUDs);

ii. Roads which are included In other Bank financed projects oan whichwork has yet to comuence may be included In the project scope, butwork on them will be limited to the inimum necessary to maintain areasonable level of traffic serviceability. Work. completed underongoing Bank-financed projects, and which have subsequetly beendamaged, may be included under the Project for restoration to thepre-existing condition;

III. Soil or slope conditions are such that it is prudent to rehabilitaterather than relocate the road;

iv. No now road construction shall be included if the facility did notexist before the flood; and

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v. The road is used primrily for comuercial and passenger purposes,with at least 75 percent of the traffic using it being of thisnature;

vi. A subproject must have components vith an estimted aggregate valueof Rs 0.25 million or more which, for the purposes of contracting,shall be grouped into contracts having an estimated cost of Rs 1.5million or more. This grouping shall be applied having regard to therequirement that the works vithin a contract be contained within asitgle district or equivalent administrative area. Where workscannot be packaged into a contract of the foregoing estimated valuethey may be included within the project scope only with the priorapproval of the Bank.

Irripation. DrainaLe and Flood Control

Irriati0on and Drainage

b. Irrigation and Drainage subprojects (defined for this purpose asaggregated works of any type and value within the same main canal command areaand/or engineering jurisdiction) shall be selected and prioritized in accordancewith the following criteria.

io Willingness by the beneficiaries to carry out from their ownresources complementary and supplementary works;

it. Larger size of command area and higher number of beneficiaries;preference shal be given to subprojects pertaining to large commandares and high numbers of beneficiaries;

iLL. Preference shall be given to restoration of irrigation diversion,regulating and control structures;

iv With respect to significant structures on civil canals in UWFP, suchstructures which are beyond the capacity of the beneficiaries toconstruct or restore may be included only when the beneficiariesagree to carry out through their own resources the remainingrestoration works required to restore the irrigation supplies;

v. Subprojects related to restoration of the World Bank-financedSCARPA/ tubewlls within fresh groundwater zones shall not beincluded;

Vi. Subprojects for systems requiring major rehabilitation are not to beincluded but should be taken up under the ongoing World Bank-financed Irrigation System Rehabilitation Project; and

1/ Salinity Control and Rehabilitation Project

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Page 4 of 4

vii. Except with the prior approval of the Boak, eligible subprojects areto have a minimum estimated value of Rs 1.5 million.

Flood Control

c. Flood control subprojects shall be selected and prioritized Inaccordance vith the following criteria:

i. The works are needed to protect against the risk of future floodsand river erosion In relation to the number of towns and ruralcommunities and agricultural lands and facilities;

ii. The socio-econOmic importance of areas and structures to beprotected against future floods and river orosiong includingbarrages, irrigation facilities and other vital economicinfrastructure;

iii. The higher risk of land erosion and other environmental dmsgel

iv. Non-structural measures (for example, resettlement, enforcement ofapplicable zoning regulations) do not constitute a more cost-effective and socially achievable means of restoring floodprotection;

ve Substantial repairs and complete rebuilding of large spurs andcontiguous sections of embankments within river reaches Includedunder the ongoing ADB-financed Flood Protection Sector Project shallnot be included but shall be undertaken under that project eand

vi. Except with the prior approval of the Bank, eligible subprojects areto have a minimum estimated value of Rs 1.5 million.

Education (Primary Schools)/Health (Basic Health Facilitigs)

5. Education (Primary Schools) and Health (Basic Health Facilities) shall beselected and prioritized in accordance with the following criteria.

i. School and basic health facility buildings are damaged beyondrepair; and

ii. Schools should have the requisite number of teachers and a highclassroom occupancy.

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Paso I of 5

fth=buro lee Retoratio Stafndads and ImplmetMation hrAtU29ent

A. ar-uottlon

1. Subproj cts which meet the criteria for inclusion in the project areto be designd or otherise processed In accordnce with the following generalreqiremets. Specific requirements for works vithin each sector are givensubsequently. Where "the Bank" is mentioned, it shall be understood to refer toboth the World Bank and the Asian Developmet Blank, unless the context requiresotherise.

L. In general, the replacemt Is to be equivalent In function to thefacility damaged, with improvement being made only wherenecessitated on sound techuical or enirormental grounds. Iowever,where conditions bave changed so significantly since the originalfacility vwa constructed that a major improveamet is no required,for exmple the provision of a two lane bridge as a replcacemet fora damged single lne structure, the proposed improvement will besubject to an appropriate ecomic evaluation, the results of whichwi be submitted to the Bank in support of a request to include theIprovemet In the project;

Li. Cost estimtes will be based on market prices for basic inputs, andil take particular account of prices bid for recent ADB/World Bank

fianced works of a similar nature being executed by the sam agencyIn simlar environmts;

iii. Subprojacts estimted to cost llb 25.0 million or more, whether ornot they are to be implemented under a number of contracts withvalues less than this amount, wil be subject to the Bank,s reviewprior to the initation of bids. This review will encompas bothtechnical details and also the contract documentation to be used forprocure^met

iv. Advace contracting carwied out within the period 10 September to 30November 1992 will be assessed as to acceptability for financing bythe Bank under the project on a case by case basist

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Anendix 3Page 2 of 5

v. Biddtng periods will be not less than 30 daysl". Contract periodswill be reasonable and related to the nature and scope of the worksto be carried out under the contracts, but will not normally exceed30 month.. No contract will be awarded which ha. an implementationperiod extending beyond the loanlcredit closing date;

vi. Contracts having an estimated value of Re 25.0 million or more willbe subject to the Bank's approval prior to award. Other work. willbe subject to post review to ensure conformity with the agreedprocuremet procedurest and

vii. Supervision will be provided by the concerned implementing agenciesassisted by consultants.

B. National HighbaWs and Provincial Roads

2. Subprojects which meet the criteria for inclusion in the project areto be designed or othewise processed in accordance with the following:

L. Reconstruction will restore roads to their original specificationsor to such higher specifications, including necessary additions oralterations, as may be warranted to ensure their operationalperformance and integrity over a reasonable life;

ii. Roads which, pro-flood, had been provided with an all-weathersurface will be provided with an all veather surface over a pavementdesigned in accordance with procedures used for ongoing MU andCOYL2 projects. Roads which had not been provided with an all-weather surface will not be provided with such a surfae. Roadwidths will not be increased, In terms of number of lanes, but maybe increased by small amounts to enable a single lane road to meetthe width standards of the PHR projects, or to enable a two laneroad to meet the currently accepted width standards for two laneroads. Notwithstanding these provisions, widths shall not beincreased where the damage is confined to only short lengths of aroad on the remainder of which the width is below standard;

Iii. Rehabilitation/reconstruction of cross drainage works (bridges,culverts, atc) will be carried out giving appropriate considerationto enwiromental, topographic and geographic conditions. Thestructures are to be sized to suit the hydraulic requirements of the

/ Longer periods may be required for works to be procured under ICBprocedures.

I &4Asla Development Boak financed Provincial Highways and Second Farm-to-Market loads (PMI) Projects.

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site, including the provision of balancing culverts where none hadpreviously existed, for an appropriate return period. The originalstructures are not necessarily to be duplicated;

iv. The widths of replacement cross drainage structures are to suit theroad function and will not be increased from single to two laneunless, in certain exceptional cases, the traffic volume using thestructure warrants the provision of two lanes. In such cases, as setout in para A (i) above, an economic analysis of the proposedimprovement will be carried out;

v. The designs of road pavements and in particular cross drainagestructures are to be reviewed to identify means by which they can bemade more resistant to damage arising from flooding. In particular,attention will be paid to foundation design and to protection works;

vi. Notwithstanding the threshold for pre-bid review given in para A(iii) above, the design and contract documentation for therehabilitation of the protection works associated with the IndusRiver bridge in D I Khan will be subject to detailed review by theBank prior to the invitation of bids;

vii. Bid documents and bidding procedures, including invitation, opening,approval and award, will be identical, except where specificallyamended by the loan/credit agreements under which the project isbeing fianmced, to those usel1 for ongoing Bank-financed BRA orCWDV projects, as appropriate; and

viii. Bids will be invited only f om contractors prequalified by NH andCWDs for similar sized or larger works, and who have performedsatisfactorily on those works.

C. IrriLation. Drainaae and Flood Control

a. Irrigation and Drainate

i. Project works will generally be limited to the restoration ofdamaged infrastructure to pre-flood conditions. For the "civil"canals in NWPM, the restoration works will be limited to the damagedinfrastructure earlier provided by the Government to thebeneficiaries and to new, large structures which are now required asthe result of the flood damage but which are beyond the capacity ofthe beneficiaries to construct. The restoration of irrigationinfrastructure mainly comprises earthworks and concrete and masonryworks for the rebuilding and repair of damaged storage and diversion

/I Second farm-to-Market Roads Project.

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Appendix 3Page 4 of S

structures, canal headworks, breached and overtopped canalembankments, damaged canal lining and structures and bridges. Therestoration of damaged drainage Infrastructure principally involvesdesilting of surface and subsurface drains but also rebuilding andrepair of drainage inlets and outlets and repairs of pumps exceptfor SCARP tubewells in fresh groundwater zones,

ii. For rebuilding of irrigation and drainage structures and contiguoussections of canal lining, the design standards and specificationsdeveloped under the World Bank/USAID/Dutch financed SecondIrrigation Systems Rehabilitation Project will be applied;

iII. Bid documents and bidding procedures, including invitation, opening,approval and award, will be identical, except where specificallyamended by the loan/credit agreements under which the project isbeing financed, to the modified documentation and procedures usedfor the irrigation/drainage component of the recently completedBank-financed 1988 Flood Damage Restoration Project.

b. Flood Control

I. Project works will generally be limited to restoration of thedamaged infrastructure to pre-flood conditions. The restorationworks will mainly comprise repair and rebuilding of breached anderoded embankments and washed away and damaged river training worksinvolving earthworks and repair and replacement of stone revetmentsand aprons;

II. Restoration involving improvements will be allowed to provide auniform level of flood protection taking into account the level offlood protection provided by the adjoining flood protectioninfrastructure. For completely or substantially damaged spurs withinriver reaches not included under the ongoing Flood Protection SectorProject, the pre-flood design and condition will be reviewed anddesign improvements madel/ to minimize the risk of future damageg

iII. Notwithstanding the threshold for pre-bid review given in para A(iii) above, the design and contract documentation for therestoration of substantially or completely damaged major spurs andbank revetments along the Indus River and its tributaries will besubject to review by the Bank prior to invitation of bids. For thispurpose, the consultant will prepare a report detailing the measuresincorporated in the design to minimize the risk of a recurrence ofthe damage, taking into account the dynamic hydraulic andmorphologic conditions within the concerned river reach; and

1/ This may require hydraulic model studies to determine the optimal design.

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&2enadl 3Page 5 of S

iv. Blid documents and bidding procedures, including invitation, opeAnig,approval and award, will be Identical, except where specificallyamended by the loan/credit agreeent. under whch the project Isbeing financed, to the modified documentation and procedures usedfor the flood control component of the recently completed Bank-financed 1988 Flood Restoration Project.

D. Education (PrI=Xr Schools?) ad Heal_h _3tnsc _ealth lacilitie

3. Project works will be limited to rebuildin of primry schools of theProvincial Education Departmental/ and basic health facilities that are damagedbeyond repair. For the rebuilding, of schoolo. the improved designs introducedunder the 1988 Flood Damage Restoration Projects will be used&/. School. andbasic health facilities at locations with a high risk of flooding or land slideswill be rebuilt at an alternative location.

4. To the extent possible, eligible subprojects within a particulardistrict or equivalent administrative unit will be grouped for the purposes ofcontracting into packages having an aggregated estimated value of Re 1.0 millionor more.

5. Bid documents and biddint procedures, Including invitation, openingsapproval and award, will be identical, except where specifically amended by theloan/credit agreements under which the project is betig finncsed, to the modifieddocumentation and procedures used for the education component of the recentlycompleted Bank-financed 1988 Flood Restoration Project.

1/ Primary schools associated with religious Institutions will not beincluded under the Project.

2/ Some design modifications may need to be considered for schools locatedoutside the flood plaines, In particular for the hilly area In WUUP.

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Page 1 of 5

PAUCIETAll

1992 MMD DAMR RSTORATION PlC¶

Togs ogf Referenc jor CoGnulinA SeCles

A.

A consulting fir will be engaged to provide project management andengineering services to assist the Federal Flood Comission (FPC) of theMinistry of Water and Paver and the Implementing agenciesY. The services willInclude: (i) overall project coordiation and administration; (1i) assistance toFEC and inplementig agencies In the selection of subprojects for Inclusion inthe project; (iii) nginerin assistaee and construction supervision; (iv) mid-term project reviews and (v) preparation of a Project Completion Report. Theseservices, further described below, relate to the restoration of publicinfrastructure demged during the exceptlonal floods and rains of 1992 in theaffected provinces, and Include irrigation, drainage and flood control works,national highways, provincial roads priry education and basic bealthfacilities.

The consultant will be engaged by the Mixstry of Water and Powerunder procedures acceptable to the lan1 and will report to the FlC. Itsprincipal objective will be to provide assstanlet to the Implementing agenies.

D. Sco of Serices

l. Prolect Coordiptlion ad Admiitration

The consultant will assist the lFC and implementing agencies ins

I. coordination of project activities among the provinces and among themplesenting agencies;

iL. preparation and updating of y"rly work plan., budgets and financingplas;

1/ The National Highwy Authority (UEA)9 the Provincial Communications andWorks Departmnts (CCDso), the Provincial Irrigation Departmets (PIDs) andthe Prowinial Education Department (in Sindh and Punjab only). for theWorld Bak. i would inlude the Public Works Departments in AI and MWP.

V/ The Bank shall be understood to refer to both the World Bank and the AsianDevelopment Bank, unles the context requires otherwise.

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Page 2 of 5

iii. advising the field staff of the Implementing agencies in applyingthe project's implementation procedures;

iv. preparation of necessary documentation for loan withdrawals;

v. compilation and certification of reimbursement applications; and

vi. maintenance of contract files.

2. Selection of Subiro1ects

The consultant will assist IFC and the implementing agencies with thepreparation of lists of subprojects to be submirted to the Bank to obtain itsapproval for their inclusion in the project. For this aspect of the services, theconsultant's responsibilities will include the following:

i. on the basis of consolidated lists of proposed subprojects submittedby the implementing agencies, inspect the proposed subprojects andreview whether they meet the selection criterial/ for inclusion Inthe project;

ii. for the subprojects which meet the criteria, prepare and submit toIFC and the implementing agencies, summaries of subprojectsrecommended for inclusion in the project. These summaries willprovide brief details of each subproject, indicate its compliancewith the selection criteria, and its estimated cost. The summariesare also to include a brief implementation schedule for thesubprojects within a province, broken down per province by sectorand administrative unit;

iii. on receipt of the Bank's approval, prepare a revised overallimplementation schedule for the project, and use this as a basis forsubsequent reporting. For larger contracts, this schedule is to showfor each subproject preconstruction activities (design, approvals,procurement, award, etc) and construction separately.

3. EntineerinS Assistance and Suvervision

The consultant will provide the following engineering assistance andsupervision services:

i. carry out chsecks, on preconstruction surveys and other pre-construction benchmark data as a check on works actually performed,for at least 20 percent of the subprojects (100 percent for HU)accepted for inclusion in the project;

ii. review the designs prepared by the implementing agencies, assist inthe preparation of these designs Where necessary, and recommend

j -See Appendix 2 for criteria for each sector.

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Arnendja 4Page 3 of 5

cost-effective design alternatives where the original designs areassessed to be inappropriate for the conditions, or not compatiblewith current technology. In carrying out this activity theconsultant is to ensure that structures are designed to appropriatestandards, including flood return periods for flood protectionstructures, cross drainage structures and road pavements;

iii. review and ensure that cost estimates for subprojects are based onmarket prices for basic inputs, and take particular account ofprices bid for recent ADB/World Bank financed works of a similarnature being executed by the same agency in similar envirorments;

iv. propose solutions for engineering and other problems encounteredduring implementation;

v. liaise with the consultants engaged under ongoing Bank financedprojects in the same sectors, to ensure an appropriately commonapproach to technical and procurement aspects of the projects;

vi. assist the implementing agencies with the packaging of all civilworks and the engagement of all civil works contractors, inaccordance with the agreed procurement procedures;

vii. carry out a pre-review of procurement actions for contracts to besubmitted to the Bank for prior review;

viii. review force account rates;

ix. for all contracts, carry out post-award reviews of biddingprocedures and bid evaluation and certify that agreed procedureshave been observed;

x. provide supervision of the works during all critical constructionstages, including after completion, to ensure compliance with thecontract conditions and specifications;

xi. for the major bridges to be constructed under the HU component ofthe project, provide specialized personnel to assist WNB in definingthe scope and extent of the pre-bid investigations, reviewing theresults thereof, and developing outline documents for invitingdesign/build proposals; assist in evaluating the proposals and inthe review and approval of the detailed design submittedsubsequently by the lowest evaluated bidder; provide residentsupervision at each site on a full time basis for the constructionperiod, estimated to be 24 months;

xii. provide random checks, typically on not less than 20 percent of thetotal measurements or testing required by the contract documents(100 percent for IRA), on quantities, through independentmeasurement of work done, and of quality, through arrangingadditional checking of key quality measures;

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Page 4 of 5

xiii. check and certify progress paymnt bills on a sample basisreprosenting at least 80 percent (100 percent for =A) of the totalvalue of the works in each sector and prvince, and a11 final bills,prior to payments being made to contractors . Where the consultantobserves that the contract povisions have not been observed, thecertification of billa, and of consequent withdrawal applications isto be withheld until the deficiency is rectified; and

xiv. Where the consultant observes that, for a particular part of theworks, the requirements of the contract specifications have not beenmet, he wil report the deficiency to the implemnting agency andsuggest corrective measures. Should the deficionecy not be corrected,the paymaet for the corresponding part of the works, should it bemade by the Implementing agency, will not be certified forreimbursement.

3. Proiect e

Niot later than one year after loan effectiveness , the consultant willprepare a Project Review Report which will inluds: (i) a review of the projectdesign and implementation arragements; (it) a review of the cost of theIndividual subprojects and of the overall projected project cost; and (iii) areassessment of the overall work plan.

4. otSM

The consultant will prepare and submit to !FC, with copies despatchedsiultaneously to the mlwmenting ag¢eies and the Bank, the following reports:

a. VonthlyrsMorts. to be brief and to consist essentially of graphicalrepresentations of progress against program, expressed as physicalprogress in flncial terms, baed on progress payments certified bythe consultant and data provided by the implementing agencies. Thereport wil be broken down by sector, administrative unit, provinceand consolidated into a project wide report, and will be submittedwithin 21 days of the close of the reporting period.

b. 2M=erLtr orta20re, providing brief nformation for each contr.act ona single line entry b"ais for project progress against program, inthe same form as set out for monthly reports, for finace (contractpaymnts, withdrawal applin.ations, imprestsapecial account and loanwithdrawal status, availability of counterpart funds, etc) , problemsand solutions proposed for them, and such other information as maybe necessary. These reports will be submitted within 45 days of theclose of the reporting period.

Co Project CBamletion Resort=in aeordance with the lank's guidelies.

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5S Duration of ServIceS and stinated Inauts

The overall duration of the services will be 45 months, commencingIn January 1993 and concluding In September 1996. The staffl.ng inputs to beprovided by the consultant will total around 2,400 man-months of localprofessional staff. The supervision component staffing is to be based on theprovision of a minimum level of consultant staffing to provide frequentinspections of the orks, checke on measurements, random sampling and testing,ete.

To provide specialist advice, the consultant will form an associationwith an acceptable International consulting firm, or with acceptable individualInternational consultants. This input, assumed for the purpose of estimating notto exceed 44 manmouths over a number of assignments, may include hydrology,hydraullc engineering with respect to river training, structural engineering (inparticular for the review of designs for the major bridges to be constructedunder the NIh coeponent of ths project), geology and geotechnical specialists,environmental protection with respect to slope stability, and such others as maybecom necessary from tie to tine.

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Aneondix 5Page 1 of 2

P=KSTAN

1992 nLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATION PROJECT

Procurement Procedures

A. Civil Works

1. All procurement will be carried out in accordance with the Guidelinesfor Procurement of either the World Bank (May 1992) or the Asian Development Bank(March 1989) depending on which institution is financing a particular contract,unless specifically stated otherwise in the legal documents. Generally LocalCompetitive Bidding procedures will be adopted, although some larger HUA bridgecontracts will be procured through International Competitive Bidding procedures.LCB contracts will be advertised in at least one English daily local newspaperof wide circulation. At least 30 days notice period will be provided from thedate of publication of the press notice or availability of bidding documentswhichever is earlier to the last date of bid submission.

2. Road and associated structural works within the same district orequivalent administrative unit will be grouped to achieve a minimum estimatedcontract value of Rs 1.5 million. For road work contracts regardless of size,bids will be invited only from contractors previously prequalified or registeredby BHA or CWDs, as appropriate, for similar sized or larger works, and who haveperformed satisfactorily on these works.

3. Irrigation/drainage and flood protection works within the sameengineering jurisdiction will be grouped to achieve a minimum estimated contractvalue of Rs 1.5 million. For contracts estimated to cost more than Rs 25.0million bidders will be pre-qualified using procedures acceptable to the Bank.Prequalification criteria will include financial capacity, experience with worksof a similar nature (to be supported by certificates of successful completionfrom the agency for whom the works wcrs executed), and the resources - persomnnl,plant, etc - available with the contractor. For contracts estimated to cost lessthan Rs 25.0 million, bids will be invited from firms registered with theProvincial Irrigation Departments.

4. To the extent possible, school and basic health unit works within thesame district or equivalent administration unit will be grouped to achieve aminimum contract size of Re 1.0 million.

5. Unless otherwise agreed by the Bank, works executed by force acco^untwill be accepted for financing only if they were commenced after September 10,1992 and completed by 31 October 1992. For drainage and flood protection works,however, principally earthworks for spurs and embankments and drain desiltingrespectively, which have short implementation periods and require the use oflarge equipment available only with the PIDs, the latter date will not apply.Civil works undertaken by force account will be accepted on the basis of ratesper unit of work. These rates will be determined on the basis of the operation

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and maintenance cost of the equipmnt engaged, excluding depreciation cost, andthe coat of labor and materials used. The rates will be reviewed by theconsultant and adjusted whore necessary.

6. For works executed under contracts, the following specificprocurement criteria will be applied:

L. Bidlcontract documnts used for the purpose of ivitingbids/awarding works, shall be documents cleared by the lank for useon similar works, under on-going lank funded projects;

i. Blid security (bid guarantee) requirements will be clearly stated inthe invitation notice and be strictly enforced during bid opening,to ensure participation only by serious bidders;

iii. Appropriate price adjustment clauses shall be used for all workswhere the specified completion period exceeds twelve montbs;

iv. Bids shall be opened in public, at the time and place stated in theinvitation for bids, in the presence of bidders representatives whochoose to be present. Bids shall be evaluated according to thecriteria stated in the bid documents. The contract shall be awardedto the eligible and qualified bidder, who has offered asubstantially responsive bid with the Lowest Evaluated Blid Price.Evaluation reports for contracts falling below the Bank's priorreview threshold, will be cleared with the consultants aftercontract award;

v. once reasonable competition has been ensured (through proper pressnotification and adequate time period for submitting bids), andmultiple bids have been received, the implemsnting agency will notnegotiate with the lowest evaluated bidder in an effort to reduceprices, when the prices bid are perceived to be high in relation toan estimate prepared on out-dated or inappropriate standardschedules of rates; and

vi. The implementing agency will consult with the Bank before rejectingall bids or inviting new bids. Rebidding to the same specificationsshall not be done solely for the purpose of obtaining lower prices

B. Consultant Services

The Gcvernment proposes to negotiate with a domestic consultant toprovide the services required under the project. Subject to the Bank concurringwith the GOvernment's proposal, the consultant will be appointed in accordancewith the Bank's Guidelines for the use of consultants. The Executing Agency willprovide the Bank with a copy of the draft negotiated contract for its review andcomment prior to signature. The contract will contain provision for payment tothe consultants for services provided prior to contract signing, subject to thoseservices not being financed from another source.

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Page I of b

1292 FLOO DAX&0R RESTORATI PKOJKC?

Flood Forecast g ad &aIn SWReL

PrMseid MaradLn and imuv - Asia nm an

A. Oblective Scgon

The objective of the proposed upgrading and iWrovment of thecountry's capability for flood forecasting and warning is to ininimea lose oflife and damage to private and public assets as the result of severe flooes inthe Indus liver and its main tributaries. It is enwisaged that the upgradingand Improvement will be achieved through the flood forecasting and warningcomponent of the ongoing Bank-fianced (ADB) Flood Protection Sector Projectand a complementary Technical Assistance (TA). The upgrading and improvemetwill focus on the following areas:

a. jWebatherR . A 10 cm weather radar will be procured anditealled in Lahors to provide for stom tracking and predictionof rainfall in the catebment areas of the Indus liver and itstributaries including those areas located In India.

b. Teleetrr and 1F Radio Cojnuication. A telmetry system will beprocured to collect and tranmit rainfall and water level datafrom stations In the catchment areas of the Tudus liver and itstributaries within the jurisdiction of Pakistan oan a real-timebasis. This system will replace the present system which hasalready exceeded its useful life. In addition, around 25 UP radiosets for voice comaunication during floods will be procured.

c. J gmetg. A flow measurement program in combination withbathymetric surveys is envisaged to establish reliable ratingcurwes for selected river stations and berraess and to providecross-sectional data of the rivers. The flow meaurSmt andsurvey program will provide data for the developmet of rainfall-ruoff and flood routing models.

d. Flood Plain Maninag. Maps of flood-prone aras including contourlines and features of villages and infrastructure will be preparedon the basis of existing topographical maps, recent satelliteimgery, aerial photographs flown In the 1970. and additionalterr"trial surveys as required. These maps will provide data forthe development of flood routing models and for the production ofa flood warning manual.

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Page 2 of 4

, Hvdrolora and Meteoroloev. Various hydrological baseline studieswill be carried out Including, inter alias

1. development of methods and procedures for the forecasting ofrainfall amount and duration associated with monsoontropical depressions for all relevant catchments, based onweather radar and also including the Indin catcbmente ofthe relevant river.;

it. collection, screening, validation and analysis of historicalrainfall, water level and river flow data including, to theextent possible, data pertaining to the Indus tributaries InIndia;

ill. water balance studies;

iv. establishment of tie series of water level and flow datafor the calibration of various rainfall-runoff and floodr-outing models;

v. specific hydrological studies to develop a model forforecasting 24 hour inflow volumes for the major reservoirsand to asees the potential role of these reservoirs forflood attenuation;

Vi., collection and analysis of information on the operationrules for the reservoirs on the Indus tributaries in India.

A hydrological data base and processing system will be procuredfor data storage and anlysis.

f. Develogment of Flood oreocastina Models. Rainfall-runoff andflood routing model, with data assimilation procedures (filters)for updatifg model results and parameters based on real-timobserved flow data will be developed and provided with a user-frieadly Interface. For the models and user-interface, availablesoftware will be used to the extent possible. The models will betested based on the simulation of real-tim forecasting conditionsfor specific historical flood events and on actual floodcondition. during TA inplementation. The models will also be madeavailable In an off-line mode to serve for planning and design offlood protection works.

g. 3gaogvor zMag g. The potential for reducing flood peaks andsubsequent flooding through improved reservoir management will beassessed under conditions of inproved flood forecasting and earlywarning. Operation rules for flood periods will be reviewed, andmodifications and related institutional arrangements proposed. Thefeasibility of a gated emergency spillway at mangla reservoir, tobe operated in conjunction with an accurate flood forecastingsystm, will be assessed at pro-feasibility level.

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Aonendli 6Page 3 of 4

h. Flood ganaent and Mitigation. Methods to rout sovers floodswith a minimum level of damage will be developed and locations forbreaching sections under various flood scenarios will bedetermined. Necessary improvments of hydraulic structureosincluding the construction of by-pa.s channels, will be assessedat pre-feasibility level. Proposals for structural and non-structural measures to contain damage as the result of unavoidablebreaches will also be developed. The possibilities for flood plainzoning and legislation to prevent occupation of flood escaperoutes will be reviewed.

i. Gecarauhical Information System. A 3-dimeusional GeographicalIAformation System of the rivers and flood prone areas will bedeveloped and linked to the flood forecasting models, in order todisplay instantly the areas likely to be flooded, depths offlooding, etC. under various reservoir and flood managementstrategies, Including anticipated breaching.

J * Institutional Strentthening for Flood Modellina and Forecastina.To ensure the sustainability and the effective use of the improvedflood modelling and forecasting capabilities, presentInstitutional arrangements for flood modelling and forecastingwill be reviewed and strengthening measures proposed. Provisionneeds to be made to secure continuous maintenance and operation ofthe models. Training of staff in the improved modelling andforecating techniques vill be provided.

k. Flood Prenaredness and Early Flood Warning. A flood warningmanual will be prepared providing information regardingvulnerability of villages and are"a likely for various floodscenarios. Measures to strengthen institutional arrangements forearly flood warning and timely evacuation of vulnerable villageswill be proposed.

3B. XUlamentatoa

An implementation period of three to four years is envisaged forthe completion of all the various upgrading and improvement measures. Thevarious ag1enies involved in the country's flood forecasting and maagetand early warning, including the Federal Flood Commission, WAPDA, theMeteorological Department and the four Provincial Irrigation Departments, willbe fully associated vith the T& implementation.

It is envisaged that the procurement and installation of radar andtelemetry equipment (items a and b), the carrying out of the bathymetricmuweys (part of item c), the flood plain mapping (item d) and theprefeasibility study for the improvements of hydraulic structures (part ofItem h) will be carried out under the ongoing Flood Protection Sector Project.The otber activities could be included under a T&.

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Page 4 of 4

C. CoI

The coot of the a11 the envisaged upgrading and iproveetmeasures and activities is estimated at about $10.0 million of which about$7.0 million will be finaned through the ongoing Flood Protection SectorProject and $3.0 million through TA funds.

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Pag I of 2PAKISTAN

1992 PLOOD DAMAGE RESTOR-TION PROJECT

Selected Documents and Data Available In the Project FiLe

A. Selected Renorte and Studiss on the Sector or Subsector

Al - Pakistan: Periodic Economic Report, October 8, 1992, prepared by PhilippeNouvel, Chief, Pakistan Resident Mission.

A2 - Briefing Papers, October 8, 1992, prepared by Petros Aklilu, Read ofProjects Unit, Pakistan Resident Mission.

B, Selected Renorts and Studies RelatinM to the Pro1ect

51 - Preliminary Reportso National Engineering Services (Pakistan) Limited,1992 - Flood/Rains Damage Restoration Project, October 1992.

52 - Project Report, National Enigneering Services (Pakistan) Limited, 1992 -Flood/Raine Damage Restoration Project, November 1992.

C. Selected Workint Paners

Cl - Economic Aspects of Flood, October 1992, prepared by S. Eggerstedt(Economist, ID).

C2 - Enwironmental Considerations, October 25, 1992, prepared by T. Walton(Environmental specialist, Consultant).

C3 - Highway Subsector Mission Report, October 28, 1992, prepared by B.P.tennedy (Highway Engineer, Consultant).

C4 - Damage to National Roads Recorded by ND.

C5 - Telecomunications Subsector Mission Report, October 18, 1992, preparedby Mikael Sergo (Sr. Financial Analyst, IDA).

C6 - Housing, Settlements and Relocations Subsector Mission Report, preparedby P. Jones (Urban Infrastructure Specialist, Consultant).

C7 - Agricultural Subsector Mission Report.

CS - Primry Education and Basic Health Facilities Subsector Mission Report,November 11, 1992, A.S. Kinawy (Architect, Consultant). Working Paperslinlude:

Completed questionnaire form for schools ats(a) Shah Pur Teheil of Sargodha Division of Punjab Provice, 48 chools(b) Bhalval Tehoil of Sargodha Division of Punjab Province, 36 school.(c) Jhang Teheil of Faisalabad Division of Punjab Province, 65 schools

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Aaendix Page 2 of 2

Sumary sheets for the number of damaged schools In Provinces of Punjab,UWIP, AJK and Northern Axas. The sumary shete Include estimatedrepair cost for schools in the four provices and in Sindh Province.

Assessment of Flood Dmage.s 1992, provided by Education Department,showing umber. and etimates for coot of repairs for the PunjabProvince, and broken down by Divisions.

Copy of letter from Director General, Health Services, Punjab, to Dr.Iashir-ul-Raq) with 18 tables attached showing extent of dmages andestimated cost of repairs for basic health units In Punjab Province.

Five tables on health facilities from Executive sgineer of Jhelum.

IBRD 23""PAKISTAN '%'

1992 FLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATION PROJECTMONSOON RAIN AND FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS

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