WMO Worldwide Space Weather Coordination

Terry Onsager

Physicist – U.S. National Weather Service, Space Weather Prediction Center

Co-Chair – WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather

Director – International Space Environment Service

Terry.Onsager@noaa.gov

Main Topics

• Global Service Demand

• National Civil Contingencies

• International Coordination Efforts

• Future Goals and Challenges

Space Weather has Global-Scale Causes and Local Impacts

Sweden: - Power outage - Transformer heating in

nuclear plant

South Africa: - 14 transformers damaged - $60 million impact - Basic commerce and security impaired

United States: - Power reduced to mitigate impact

on generation facilities

NBCnews.com

Orbital Sciences cargo

delivery to ISS

Spacecraft Operations and Aviation Impacts January 8, 2014

Energetic Proton Flux

Geostationary Orbit

Polar Airline Flights Re-routed

Growth in Subscribers to U.S. Space Weather Products

Subscription service began

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Customers Include: All major airlines Drilling and oil exploration Satellite companies Transportation sector Emergency responders

~25% of customers are International

Space Weather Risks are Recognized - National Mitigation Plans are being Developed

South Korea:

• Space Weather included in

National Risk Profile

• Roles and responsibilities of

agencies and ministries defined

Korea Space Weather Center

United Kingdom:

National Register Recognizes

Space Weather Risks

Overarching Goal: Strengthen Resilience Through Improved Services

1. User Needs: Understand the risks and the actions

that need to be taken

2. Targeted Services: Develop useable capabilities from

basic science knowledge

3. Observing Infrastructure: Distributed space-based and ground-

based

4. Global Coordination: Consistent, accurate message

Four elements needed to improve space weather capabilities:

World Meteorological Organization Specialized Agency of the United Nations with 191 Members

Report on: THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHER April 2008

• Space Weather impacts the Global Observing System

• Space Weather affects economic activities (aviation,

satellites, electric power, navigation, etc.)

• Synergy with current WMO services and users

WMO Space Programme:

Space Weather

Coordination

Awareness and

Training

Access to Satellite

Data and Products

Space-based

Observing System

WMO Space Weather Coordination Goals

• Evaluate space weather user requirements for

observations, products, and services

• Coordinate ground and space-based observations

• Promote and facilitate data exchange and standardization

• Develop best practices for observing, forecasting, and

communicating to users

• Train and build capacity

• Ensure a science-based, authoritative voice

Space Weather

Coordination

Space-based

Observing System

Access to Satellite

Data and Products

Awareness and

Training

Established in May, 2010

Japan

Australia

WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW)

23 Member Countries

7 International Organizations

United States

Canada

Brazil

United Kingdom

Finland

Germany Belgium

Ethiopia

China

Korea

Russian Federation

South Africa

Switzerland

Pakistan Italy

Sweden

Poland

France

Thailand

Norway

Representatives for Italy:

Dr Daniele Biron

Head of Satellite Area

Centro Nationale di

Meteorologia e

Climatologia Aeronautica

Prof. Mauro Messerotti

INAF-Astronomical Observatory

of Trieste

Dr Bruno Zolesi

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e

Vulcanologia

Coordination of Major Application Areas: Aeronautical Meteorology

ICAO recognizes the ICTSW as the WMO technical body to provide advice on

space weather matters

• Reviewed the ICAO Concept of Operation for International Space

Weather Information

• Reviewed draft Standards and Recommended Practices on space

weather

• Provided guidance on future organization of operational space

weather service delivery

http://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/applicationareas/view/25

International Space Weather Observing Requirements

• Observing requirements are

documented.

• Updated on two-year cadence by

international team

• Database addresses operational,

research, and climatology needs

• Forms the basis for gap analysis and

advocacy

WMO Space Weather Observations Gap Analysis (Statement of Guidance)

• Addresses observing needs for:

- Long lead-time forecasts

- Alerts of hazardous conditions

- Event climatology

- Model validation

- Scientific research

• Observing domains:

- Ionosphere

- Thermosphere

- Geomagnetic

- Energetic Particles

- Solar and Interplanetary

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/SOG/SoG-SW.doc

Statement of Guidance for

Space Weather Observations

WMO Space Weather Product Portal

• Enhance awareness of available products

• Enable use by partners at no cost

• Increase global participation in space

weather services

• Facilitate intercomparison and coordination

of products

• Training under development for new users

Nine countries now contribute space

weather products on the portal

http://www.wmo-sat.info/product-access-guide/theme/space-weather

Challenges Ahead

• The improvement of space weather services requires coordinated,

committed partners around the globe

• Many space-based observations are obtained from research missions

with limited lifetimes – continuity of data is a concern

• Many ground-based observations are not available in real time nor on

shared networks

• Research is needed with a focus on the development of applications to

support specific user needs

• Global and regional services must be coordinated

16 Regional Warning Centers

4 Associate Warning Centers

1 Collaborative Expert Center

International Space Environment Service Coordinating space weather services since 1962

www.spaceweather.org

• Improved service coordination is

a priority

• Endorsed by national

governments as space weather

service providers

• Provide local users with targeted

services

• Promote exchange of data and

information

• Close collaboration with WMO

UK

Graz

Wide Area Forecast Centers (WAFC)

Global

WAFC (Washington) WAFC (London)

Regional

VAAC VAAC VAAC …

Local

MWO … Airport

MWO Airport

MWO Airport

MWO Airport

…

Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC)

Meteorological Watch Organizations (MWO)

WAFC WAFC

Backup

Aviation Meteorology Global/Regional Functions

Solar Flares – Forecasts, Warnings,

and Alerts

Space Weather - Global Functions

Solar Protons – Forecasts, Warnings,

and Alerts

Geomagnetic – Forecasts and Warnings

Storms

Global-scale phenomena can be addressed by a limited number of centers

Space Weather - Regional Functions

Geomagnetic – Alerts and Local Impacts

Storms

Regional-scale phenomena must be addressed by a distributed network

Ionospheric – Total Electron Content

Disturbances

Ionospheric – Scintillation

Disturbances

Global/Regional Roles for Space Weather Observations

• Space-based observations of space weather drivers (solar active

regions, CMEs, solar wind at L1) can be obtained by a few countries

and shared

- Encourage international organizations (WMO, CGMS, UNCOPOUS)

to advocate for a plan among countries with satellite capabilities

• Ground-based measurements of local disturbances require

commitment from each individual country

- Foster the establishment of operational space weather programs

within countries to ensure local support for data infrastructure

- Leverage infrastructure that already exists for weather and climate

United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS)

• Space Weather is a new agenda item for STSC (2013)

• Space weather guidelines and recommended practices for space actors

will soon be released (2015)

• COPUOS actions cover the full range of issues – basic research,

applications, capacity building – with high-level government and space

agency participation

COPUOS is well positioned to facilitate communication from basic science

to operational services

COPUOS Scientific and Technology Subcommittee (STSC):

Space Weather Services to Build Global Resilience

Expert Meeting on Space Weather Services

February, 2015 – UNCOPUOS STSC Assembly

Goal: Foster greater global participation in space weather service activities

• How can members benefit from information and services available

today?

• What types of services are likely to be needed in various regions?

• How can members expand from a research/education capability to a

service capability?

• How can members contribute local data and expertise to the global

effort?

Supporting the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS)

Scientific and Technical Subcommittee (STSC) Agenda Item on Space Weather

• Focus on operational spacecraft and instrument issues

• Host space weather instruments

• Routinely report on satellite anomalies

• Can facilitate integration of observing capabilities

Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites

Near-term Actions:

1. Develop Terms of Reference for space weather activities

2. Work with WMO space weather team to develop procedures

for collection and use of anomaly information

• There is a growing, global need for improved services and for

consistent, coordinated observations and operational information

• Coordination on observations, services, and research is essential to

improving our global resilience to space weather

• The WMO is actively engaged in defining service needs and observing

requirements, identifying gaps, and coordinating efforts

• ISES, ICAO, COPUOS, and CGMS are also engaged in complementary

efforts to improve service capabilities

• Italy and the European Union are important partners in all aspects of

the global space weather effort

Summary