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World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO

WMO DRR programme strategy and implementationp

By Mr. Paolo PAGANO

Italian Meteorological Service

First International Conference on Emergency PreventionRoma - 14 June 2010

www.wmo.int

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Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural

hazards (1980-2007)

Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

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Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Drought

Extreme Temp.

4%Windstorm

15%

Extreme Temp.

5% Flood 10%

Volcano1,6%

Tsunami0,4%

Epidemic, insects13%

Wild Fires

Windstorm 27%

Earthquake8%

Drought5% Flood

33%

Slides 5%

Volcano1%Tsunami

12%Epidemic,

insects10%

Earthquake16%

Drought30%

Tsunami1%

Earthquake22%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

2%Flood 25%

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Economic

Loss of lifeNumber ofevents

3%

Wild Fires 2%

Windstorm 43%

Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Economic losses

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Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise !

EnergyEnergy TransportationTransportationAral SeaAral SeaDisasters impacts

Intensity

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

Disasters impacts many sectors!

Heavy rainfall / Flood

g

PeoplePeople AgricultureAgriculture Urban areasUrban areas

Drought

Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise !

Frequency

Heatwaves Need forMulti-sectoral risk

management

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Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness

• In most countries disaster risk management has beenIn most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!)

• In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan)

di i di i k f d d i– New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues)

– International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA

Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides aImplementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological,

hydrological and climate services!

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WMOHyogo Framework

Development of WMO DRR Strategic priorities approved by CG XIV

WMO Strategic Plan

2008-2015(Top Level Objectives and

Five Strategic Thrusts)

y gfor Action

2005-2015

(World Conference on Disaster Reduction)

Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National

network and partners

WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction

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1st EC WG DRR &SD and EC 61 Endorsed WMO DRR Programme Framework

Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources

Risk TransferRisk Assessment

Historical Hazard d t b Preparedness (saving lives):

Risk Reduction

Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency) 1

databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis

Preparedness (saving lives):early warning systemsemergency planning and response

Prevention (Reduction of economic losses):

CATastrophe insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

3

25

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

economic losses):Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training across agencies

4

6

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WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction

Approved by WMO Congress - XVTo implement WMO DRR priorities through regional andTo implement WMO DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results:

• Modernized NMHSs and observing networks.• Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning

systems.y• Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk

assessment capacities to support risk reduction and risk transfer.• Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil

protection and other disaster risk management stakeholders.• Trained management and staff of NMHS • Enhanced ministerial and public awareness

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Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks!

Hazard Exposure Potential This

Analysis and Mapping

pand

VulnerabilityLoss

Estimatesinformation is

critical for decision-making

and development of

strategies to reduce the risks

Number of lives at risk

$ t i k reduce the risks

Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping

Impacts: population densityagricultural landurban gridInfrastructure

$ at riskDestruction of

buildings and infrastructure

Reduction in crop yields

InfrastructureBusinesses Business

interruptionNeed for historical and real time data

Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and

trend analysis

Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis

tools

Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset

and exposure information

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WMO 2006 Country-level DRR Survey Indicates that ….

Main needs are:Over 70 % of NMHS are

arch

ive

azar

d 120

140

• Modernisation of observation networks

• Data rescue • Data management

t

Over 70 % of NMHS are challenged in supporting risk

assessment!!!

Num

ber o

f cou

ntrie

s th

at

data

for t

he s

peci

fied

ha

0

20

40

60

80

100

windsning

oughtwav

eflo

ododing

storm

se fo

gwav

esn

owHaz

eiat

ionuak

esoding

clone

d fire

slide

g rain

urge

rnad

oard

snc

esard

ssto

rman

che

nami

vents

warm

systems• Maintaining standard

historical hazard database and metadata

• Hazard analysis and

Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

Strong w

i

Thunders

torm

or lightn

iDro

u

Heat w

Flash f

River f

lood

Hailst

Dense

Cold w

Heavy

s

Smoke, D

ust or H

Hazard

s to a

via

Earthqua

Coastal

flood

Tropica

l cyc

l

Forest o

r wild

land f

Lands

lide or

mudsl

Freezin

g r

Storm

su Torn

Waterbo

rne h

aza

Airborn

e substa

nc

Marine

haza

Sandsto

Avalan

Tsun

Volcanic

eve

Deser

t locu

st sw

a d ys s dmapping tools

Statistical analysisClimate modelling

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Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies

National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms

1 2

3 4

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While economic

345

495

300

350

400

450

500

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

While economic losses are on the way up!

GeologicalMillions of casualties per decade

4 11 1424

47

88

160

103

0

50

100

150

200

250

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade

2.66

1.73

1.5

2

2.5

3

Hydrometeorological Loss of life from hydro-

meteorological

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

0.050.17

0.39

0.65

0.22 0.25

0.67

0.22

0

0.5

1

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade

gdisasters are decreasing!

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COMMUNITIES AT RISK

Many countries are still in response and relief mode!

NationalGovernment

(emergency systems)

N ti l T h i l

disasterresponse Local

government

r

Hydrological

Meteorological

National Technical Services

Disaster

response

Marine

Health (etc.)…

Geologicalhazard warning

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National

There is need for investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems !

Local 1National

GovernmentDRR coordination

mechanisms

feedback 34

4

Governmentresponsible for

emergency preparedness and

response

Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination

warnings

Meteorological

Capacity Development and Coordinated National Technical Agencies

Community Prepared

i

2 4

3545

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health, Agricuture (etc.)

warnings

feedback

5

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Example: Documentation of Good Practices and develop Guidelines for Institutional Partnerships in

Early Warning Systems

Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard ApproachGuidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi Hazard ApproachPlanning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles of NMHS

Synthesis of First set of 7 Good Practices (4 more in the pipeline)Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services

Bangladesh Cyclone

Preparedness

Programme

CubaTropical Cyclone

Early Warning System

France “Vigilan

ce System”

Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency

Preparedness

Programme

USAMulti-Hazard

Early Warning System

GermanyThe Warning Management

of the Deutscher

Wetterdienst

JapanMulti-

Hazard Early

Warning System

First EWS Publication of a series being published in 2010 and together with a technical WMO guidelines.Next Phase: Concept of Operations and Service Delivery Issues

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2.66

1.732

2.5

3

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Millions of casualties per decade

Loss of life from

0.050.17

0.39

0.65

0.22 0.25

0.67

0.22

0

0.5

1

1.5

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

hydro-meteorological disasters are decreasing…

BUT economic

56 65 66 75 76 85 86 95 96 05 decade

345

495

250

300

350

400

450

500

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

losses are on the way up!

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

4 11 1424

47

88

160

103

0

50

100

150

200

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade

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Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms

What type of Which Risks? Who Could Requirements for ypFinancial tools? Benefit?

qHydro-Met Services?

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed Government

Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these

k !)

Financial risks

insurance and derivatives

Regional Catastrophe Insurance F ili i

Companies

Individuals

Other

markets!) Seasonal to inter-annual

climate forecasts

Decadal climate trend analysis

Facilities

Other emerging products

Long term trend analysis (long-term

market strategy)

WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

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Participants: (8 re-insurers 13 Meteorological Services

WMO Workshop on Catastrophe and Weather-Indexed Insurance

December 2007, WMO HQ

Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Meteorological Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)

USER Perspectives were discussed:• Information requirements (data and forecasts):

A il bilit d ibilit f hi t i l d l ti d t– Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data – Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??) – Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and

settlement) – Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts – Climate Forecasting and Long term trend analysis (reporting on climate risk,

solvency analysis and long-term strategy)

• Technical support and Service delivery needshttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

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Major Initiatives Underway for Development of Climate Services for (Re)Insurance

• Drivers are• Drivers are – Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU) for the

companies to report of their climate risk– Industry: Funding research and partnering with climate research

community to develop relevant climate services – Climate Community and Met services: Vary receptive and have

initiated various projects and activities (UK Met Office, NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, U of Reading, U of Exeter, Princeton Univ, and many more)

• WMO is engaging to facilitate more extendedWMO is engaging to facilitate more extended collaboration and support the scaling up these initiatives for benefit of more countries around the world

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44/4892 %

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses

25/3474 %

18/2282 %

24/5254 %

10/1283 %

14/1974 %

74% + response rate

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

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Infrastructure: Data, Partnerships

Under estimated

Major challenges for NMHS to be addressed Systematically through DRR Implementation Strategy: Another view

Category

Planning &

Legislation

Infrastructure:ObservationForecasting

Telecom.

,Analysis

and TechnicalCapacities

Partnerships&

Concept of Operations

% countries

1 Need for development in all areas 12p

2 Need for improvements in all areas 42

3 Self sufficient Need for improvements in these areas 26these areas

4 Self sufficientCould benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines 20

Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

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Major challenges for NMHS to be addressed Systematically through DRR Implementation Strategy: another view

• 70% of countries need amendments or restructuring of70% of countries need amendments or restructuring of their national policies and legislation– Reflection of the role of NMHS in policies, legislation, plans

• 65% NMHS need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure– Observations, forecasting systems, communication, data management, etc

• 80% NMHS need technical and management training :– Hazard data bases, mapping and analysis and (meteorological,

hydrological and climate) forecasting tools,

• 80% of NMHS need strengthening or building multi-80% of NMHS need strengthening or building multisectoral institutional partnerships, coordination and service delivery– e.g., emergency services, infrastructure and planning, etc)

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Building Close Relationship and Track Record with Strategic Donors…

1 Identifying strategic partners and building long-term1. Identifying strategic partners and building long-term relationship:

• Identification and understanding of the priorities of strategic donors

• Their engagement in the project development from the early stagesearly stages

• Post-disasters Fund-raising opportunities for strengthening of the NMHS through the post disaster humanitarian and development mechanisms

• Flash Appeal (was used for upgrade of GTS in Indian Ocean now for Haiti)Ocean, now for Haiti)

• Post Disaster Needs Assessment and Country reconstruction plan (first time for Haiti)

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Engage in regional cooperation projects with strategic partners that influence National/Regional DRR Programmes, Capacities and Funding

Partners Agency Type Coordination National DRR Implementation Funding

World Bank(GFDRR)

Development X X

ISDRC di ti X XCoordination X X

UNDPDevelopment

XX X

WFP, FAO Agriculture X X X

UN- OCHA IFRC H it i X XUN- OCHA, IFRC Humanitarian X X

Donors (EC, bi-laterals) Donor

X

Regional Centers and agencies X

XX

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Type I: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank ISDR UNDP Central Asia

Two Types of National/Regional DRR Projects initiated (2007 – Present)

Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO

South East Europe (2007-

present)

and Caucasus (2009 –

ongoing)

Special project: WMO Shanghai MH-

EWS Demo

South East Asia (early

2010 –ongoing)

SADC (2011 -)

Central America and Caribbean

(2010- )

Type II: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in end-to-end Multi-Hazard

EWS

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Type I – Regional DRR and Adaptation ProgrammeCooperation with World Bank/UNDP/ISDR/WMO

Example: South East Europe (8 countries) • Three interlinked Development • National Assessments completed

d bli h d i 2008Components:– Risk Management governance and

Institutional Capacities (UNDP/ISDR) – Hydro meteorological services (WMO and

World Bank) – Insurance and financial risk transfer

and published in 2008• Regional Cooperation Framework

developed, published in 2008 • EC DG Enlargement as the

primary donor identified • First 2-year project proposal

(World bank) • First year

– Detailed multi-agency national capacities and needs assessments (funded by World Bank)

– Regional cooperation framework

First 2 year project proposal developed with UNDP)

• Project funded and initiated in July 2009

• This phase of the project will becompleted by Q1 2011

– Donor and partners identificati– Integration of relevant WMO Programmes

• Year two-onwards – Capacity Development– Phased project management cycle

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Thank YouFor more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

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