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Williston Basin Oil and Gas Emission Inventory: Midterm Year Activity Forecasts. ENVIRON International Corporation April 16, 2013. Outline. Activity forecasting method Activity forecasts by basin subareas Oil and gas takeaway infrastructure. Forecasting Method: Overview. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Williston Basin Oil and Gas Emission Inventory:
Midterm Year Activity Forecasts
ENVIRON International CorporationApril 16, 2013
Outline
• Activity forecasting method• Activity forecasts by basin subareas• Oil and gas takeaway infrastructure
Forecasting Method: Overview
• Primary Data Sources:– IHS Oil and Gas Database (historical data)– Operator input (drilling forecasts, well decline)
• Secondary sources for validation– 2012 Bentek Study (gas and oil production)
Forecasting Method: Basin Subareas
Forecasting Method: Flow Chart
Future Years Drilling Schedule
(2012 – 2015)
Midterm Year Production from Wells Added After Base
Year 2011
Midterm Year Production from Wells in Operation in Base Year 2011 and Earlier
2011 Production (source: IHS database)
Well Decline Curve
Midterm Year Production from All Wells
Sample Oil Well Decline Curve
Source: Williston Basin: Greasing the Gears for Growth in North Dakota. NDPA/NDIC Study. BENTEK Energy. http://ndpipelines.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/bentek_ogrp-slides-8-14-2012.pdf
Sample Gas Well Decline Curve
Source: Williston Basin: Greasing the Gears for Growth in North Dakota. NDPA/NDIC Study. BENTEK Energy. http://ndpipelines.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/bentek_ogrp-slides-8-14-2012.pdf
Activity Forecasts By Subarea
• Drilling– Oil well spuds– Gas well spuds
• Active well counts– Oil wells– Gas wells
• Liquids Production– Crude oil– Condensate
• Gas Production– Associated gas– Natural gas
2011 Subarea Contributions
Spuds Active Wells Oil Production Gas Production0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Bakken Cedar Creek Anticline Other Counties
Perc
ent o
f Bas
inw
ide
Activ
ity
(%)
Bakken Subarea Drilling
Oil well spuds
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2,688
2,688
2,688
3,419
4,091
4,764Oil Spuds
Spuds - Projected (Growing Drilling Rate)
Spuds - Projected (Stable Drilling Rate)
Year
Num
ber o
f Spu
ds
Bakken Subarea Drilling
Gas well spuds
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6464
64
Gas Spuds
Spuds - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Spu
ds
Bakken Subarea Active Wells
Oil Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
11,141
12,947
14,753
11,621
14,348
17,516
Oil Well Count
Oil Wells - Projected (Growing Drilling Rate)
Oil Wells - Projected (Stable Drilling Rate)
Year
Num
ber o
f Acti
ve W
ells
Bakken Subarea Active Wells
Gas Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
50
100
150
200
250
300276 276 276
Gas Well CountGas Wells - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Act
ive
Wel
ls
Bakken SubareaCrude Oil Production
Oil Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
450,000,000
500,000,000
306,310,952
373,529,283
440,747,614
Crude Oil
Crude Oil - Projected
Year
Oil
Prod
uctio
n [B
BL]
Bakken SubareaCondensate Production
Gas Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1,635,874
1,635,874
1,635,874
Gas Well CondensateGas Well Condensate - Projected
Year
Oil
Prod
uctio
n [B
BL]
Bakken SubareaAssociated Gas Production
Oil wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
326,498,767
404,070,764
481,642,762Casinghead Gas
Casinghead Gas - Projected
Year
Gas P
rodu
ction
[MCF
]
Bakken SubareaNatural Gas Production
Gas wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
7,673,532
7,673,532
7,673,532
Natural GasNatural Gas - Projected
Year
Gas P
rodu
ction
[MCF
]
Cedar Creek Anticline Drilling
Oil well spuds
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
50
100
150
200
250
1515
15
Oil Spuds
Spuds - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Spu
ds
Cedar Creek AnticlineDrilling
Gas well spuds
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
17 17 17
Gas SpudsSpuds - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Spu
ds
Cedar Creek AnticlineNumber of Active Wells
Oil Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,143 1,146 1,149
Oil Well CountOil Wells - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Acti
ve W
ells
Cedar Creek AnticlineNumber of Active Wells
Gas Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,323 1,323 1,323
Gas Well CountGas Wells - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Act
ive
Wel
ls
Cedar Creek AnticlineCrude Oil Production
Oil Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
15,233,468
15,233,468
15,233,468
Crude Oil Crude Oil - Projected
Year
Oil
Prod
uctio
n [B
BL]
Cedar Creek AnticlineCondensate Production
Gas Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2,172,867
2,172,8672,172,867
Gas Well CondensateGas Well Condensate - Projected
Year
Oil
Prod
uctio
n [B
BL]
Cedar Creek AnticlineAssociated Gas Production
Oil wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
25,139,877
25,139,877
25,139,877
Casinghead GasCasinghead Gas - Projected
Year
Gas P
rodu
ction
[MCF
]
Cedar Creek AnticlineNatural Gas Production
Gas wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
14,801,950
14,801,950
14,801,950
Natural GasNatural Gas - Projected
Year
Gas P
rodu
ction
[MCF
]
All Remaining Counties Drilling
Oil well spuds
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 0 0
Oil Spuds
Spuds - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Spu
ds
All Remaining CountiesDrilling
Gas well spuds
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 0 0
Gas SpudsSpuds - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Spu
ds
All Remaining CountiesNumber of Active Wells
Oil Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
13 13 13Oil Well CountOil Wells - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Acti
ve W
ells
All Remaining CountiesNumber of Active Wells
Gas Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
5
10
15
20
25
19 19 19
Gas Well CountGas Wells - Projected
Year
Num
ber o
f Act
ive
Wel
ls
All Remaining CountiesCrude Oil Production
Oil Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
40,751
40,751
40,751
Crude Oil Crude Oil - Projected
Year
Oil
Prod
uctio
n [B
BL]
All Remaining CountiesCondensate Production
Gas Wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
1
0 0 0
Gas Well CondensateGas Well Condensate - Projected
Year
Oil
Prod
uctio
n [B
BL]
All Remaining CountiesAssociated Gas Production
Oil wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,955 1,955 1,955
Casinghead GasCasinghead Gas - Projected
Year
Gas P
rodu
ction
[MCF
]
All Remaining CountiesNatural Gas Production
Gas wells
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
68,410 68,410 68,410
Natural GasNatural Gas - Projected
Year
Gas P
rodu
ction
[MCF
]
Infrastructure Development: Casinghead Gas Flaring
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fraction of ND Gas that is Not Sold
Data from 2009 to Jan 2013 from ND DMR https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/Gas1990ToPresent.pdf
Infrastructure Development: Oil
• Direct to pipeline infrastructure?
Infrastructure Development: OilPipeline vs. Rail
source: NDPA http://northdakotapipelines.com/oil-transportation-table/
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Pipeline - Final Pipeline - Projects under Review/Proposed Rail - Final
Year
Thou
sand
Bar
rels
of O
il pe
r Day
[100
0 bp
d]
