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WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Methods and models to estimate the impact of transport on health
and the environment in citiesPierpaolo Mudu
THE PEP INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP in MOSCOW, 7 June 2012SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN TRANSPORT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
World Health Organization
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Overview
The focus of this presentation is on the methods and models to estimate the impact of transport on health and the environment. This presentation is composed by the following sections:
1) brief introduction to the aspects related to an integration of different impacts due to transport
2) presentation of modelling examples from various projects.
3) discussion on the challenges and implications of an integrated approach.
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Tools for assessing potential health impacts of transport policies
Source: Joffe, Mindell, 2002: 136
Diagram of pathways from transport policy to health outcomes
Tools to assess the health effects of policy options
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Health impacts of urban transport
• Air pollution (outdoor & in vehicles)
• Road accidents (incl. pedestrians)
• Noise
• Physical activity (lack of)
• Psychosocial effects
• Climate change
• Beneficial effects
Transport plays a role in several of the leading risk factors for health
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Transport policies have major health impacts, which have been dealt with separately
ROAD TRAFFIC INJURIES
NOISE
AIR POLLUTION
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY
PSYCHOSOCIALEFFECTS
CLIMATE CHANGE
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Population and risk factors
http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/images/Research/Figure-5_Air_Quality_.jpg
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Time spent in traffic in some European cities (%)
Fraction of time (%) spent in different microenvironments
Helsinki: All people
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
0:00
1:30
3:00
4:30
6:00
7:30
9:00
10:3
0
12:0
0
13:3
0
15:0
0
16:3
0
18:0
0
19:3
0
21:0
0
22:3
0
Time
Per
cen
t
other outdoors
other indoors
work outdoors
work indoors
home outdoors
home indoors
train
bus
car
motorbike
walk
Oxford: All people
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
TimeP
erce
nt
other outdoors
other indoors
work outdoors
work indoors
home outdoors
home indoors
train
bus
car
motorbike
walk
Source: EXPOLIS
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Example of modelling transport impacts through GISA GIS modelling tool for exposure to traffic developed jointly with a
“Health Impacts of Transport” calculator by WHO during the ISHTAR and HEARTS projects allows to consider the various methodological challenges
Traffic Exposure (TEX) demo
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Few examples: Interactive mobile and web maps Open-source software Google earth Cloud platforms Parallel computing 3d and 4d modelling and visualization GPS Programming languages Remote sensing data analysis
How Modelling Has Changed in the Last Ten Years
Two case studies related to manipulation of mobility data: mobile telephone activity, tourist density
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
In collaboration with Arnaud Banos (CNRS – France)See Mudu, Terracini and Martuzzi (2012)
Example of recent modelling
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Questions: Does integration involve significant shifts in the transport modeling practice? 1
The whole process of integration means a substantial improvement in the transport modeling practice because new and more precise requirements need to be satisfied.
Consider, just for example:• Origin/Destination matrices• network used in traffic simulation• outputs of a traffic model• dispersion models
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Questions: Does integration involve significant shifts in the health impact assessment practice? 2
Everybody is not exposed to the same pollutant concentrations, and space/time activities matter
Dose/response curves can be carefully and successfully used
The temporal scale of health effects, i.e. the latency times from exposure to adverse event, must be taken into consideration.
Double counting problems arise for some health effects
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Why Integration?
• In order to obtain a realistic measure of risks from transport systems, we benefit from getting information both on the time activity patterns of the people concerned, and the time-and space-varying patterns of different transport-related risks (e.g. air pollution, noise and accident). Integration means to be able to link all this information together in a consistent and coherent way
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Why Integration?
The reasons to run integrated impact assessment can be summarised as:• provide quantitative methods that present an assessment of health impacts and
not just a qualitative assessment of possible effects; • support the measurement and comparison of different scenarios based on data
publicly available or measurable; • help set precise methodologies that can be validated ex-post; • meet the needs of cities and regions• more coherent analysis of different effects of transportation systems
• Increased cooperation among different local authorities committed in interacting sectors (urban and regional planning, transport, air quality, health, safety....)
• Better understanding of health implications of planning policies
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Which are the challenges?• Lack of data;• Wrong data format (and cleaning data needs)• Definition of required space/time scale/multi-scale and
population size;• Difficulty in integrating different risks to health;• Lack of integration between land use and transport
planners
• Lack of multidisciplinary teams capable of coping with ‘integrated problems’
• What is relevant in different contexts?
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Conclusions
Integration of models for transport impacts on health is a Integration of models for transport impacts on health is a complex process that can be addressed in different ways. complex process that can be addressed in different ways.
I brought as an example the work, in particular the I brought as an example the work, in particular the methodologies and software, done in various projects and methodologies and software, done in various projects and I am available to discuss the role of health when it has to I am available to discuss the role of health when it has to be considered together with planning and transport be considered together with planning and transport policies that is projects involving (most of the times in a policies that is projects involving (most of the times in a separate way) engineering, geography, mathematics, separate way) engineering, geography, mathematics, software programming, epidemiology etc..software programming, epidemiology etc..
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Transport, health and environment
Pierpaolo [email protected]
Thank you for your attention
References: Hosking J., Mudu P., Dora C. (2011) Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation -
Transport sector. Geneva: WHOMudu P., Terracini B. and Martuzzi M. (2012) Human health in areas with industrial
contamination. Copenaghen: WHO. ForthcomingHEARTS: www.euro.who.int/heartsISHTAR: www.ishtar-fp5-eu.com/
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