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WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Methods and models to estimate
the impact of transport on health
and the environment in cities Pierpaolo Mudu
THE PEP INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP in MOSCOW, 7 June 2012 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN TRANSPORT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
World Health Organization
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Overview
The focus of this presentation is on the methods and models to estimate the impact of transport on health and the environment. This presentation is composed by the following sections:
1) brief introduction to the aspects related to an integration of different impacts due to transport
2) presentation of modelling examples from various projects.
3) discussion on the challenges and implications of an integrated approach.
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Tools for assessing potential health impacts of
transport policies
Source: Joffe, Mindell, 2002: 136
Diagram of pathways from transport policy
to health outcomes
Tools to assess the health effects of policy
options
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Health impacts of urban transport
• Air pollution (outdoor & in vehicles)
• Road accidents (incl. pedestrians)
• Noise
• Physical activity (lack of)
• Psychosocial effects
• Climate change
• Beneficial effects
Transport plays a role in several of the leading risk
factors for health
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Transport policies have major health impacts,
which have been dealt with separately
ROAD TRAFFIC
INJURIES
NOISE
AIR POLLUTION
PHYSICAL
ACTIVITY
PSYCHOSOCIAL
EFFECTS
CLIMATE
CHANGE
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Population and risk factors
http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/ http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/images/Research/Figure-
5_Air_Quality_.jpg
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Time spent in traffic in some European cities (%)
Fraction of time (%) spent in different microenvironments
Helsinki: All people
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
0:0
0
1:3
0
3:0
0
4:3
0
6:0
0
7:3
0
9:0
0
10:3
0
12:0
0
13:3
0
15:0
0
16:3
0
18:0
0
19:3
0
21:0
0
22:3
0
Time
Perc
en
t
other outdoors
other indoors
work outdoors
work indoors
home outdoors
home indoors
train
bus
car
motorbike
walk
Oxford: All people
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
0:00
1:30
3:00
4:30
6:00
7:30
9:00
10:30
12:00
13:30
15:00
16:30
18:00
19:30
21:00
22:30
TimeP
erc
en
t
other outdoors
other indoors
work outdoors
work indoors
home outdoors
home indoors
train
bus
car
motorbike
walk
Source: EXPOLIS
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Example of modelling transport
impacts through GIS
A GIS modelling tool for exposure to traffic
developed jointly with a “Health Impacts of
Transport” calculator by WHO during the
ISHTAR and HEARTS projects allows to
consider the various methodological
challenges
Traffic Exposure (TEX) demo
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Few examples: Interactive mobile and web maps
Open-source software
Google earth
Cloud platforms
Parallel computing
3d and 4d modelling and visualization
GPS
Programming languages
Remote sensing data analysis
How Modelling Has Changed in the Last Ten Years
Two case studies related to manipulation of mobility
data: mobile telephone activity, tourist density
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
In collaboration with Arnaud Banos (CNRS – France)
See Mudu, Terracini and Martuzzi (2012)
Example of recent modelling
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Questions: Does integration involve significant
shifts in the transport modeling practice? 1
The whole process of integration means a substantial
improvement in the transport modeling practice
because new and more precise requirements need to
be satisfied.
Consider, just for example:
• Origin/Destination matrices
• network used in traffic simulation
• outputs of a traffic model
• dispersion models
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Questions: Does integration involve significant
shifts in the health impact assessment practice? 2
Everybody is not exposed to the same pollutant
concentrations, and space/time activities matter
Dose/response curves can be carefully and successfully
used
The temporal scale of health effects, i.e. the latency times
from exposure to adverse event, must be taken into
consideration.
Double counting problems arise for some health effects
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Why Integration?
• In order to obtain a realistic measure of risks from transport systems, we benefit from getting information both on the time activity patterns of the people concerned, and the time-and space-varying patterns of different transport-related risks (e.g. air pollution, noise and accident). Integration means to be able to link all this information together in a consistent and coherent way
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Why Integration?
The reasons to run integrated impact assessment can be summarised as:
• provide quantitative methods that present an assessment of health impacts and
not just a qualitative assessment of possible effects;
• support the measurement and comparison of different scenarios based on data
publicly available or measurable;
• help set precise methodologies that can be validated ex-post;
• meet the needs of cities and regions
• more coherent analysis of different effects of transportation systems
• Increased cooperation among different local authorities committed in
interacting sectors (urban and regional planning, transport, air quality, health,
safety....)
• Better understanding of health implications of planning policies
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Which are the challenges?
• Lack of data;
• Wrong data format (and cleaning data needs)
• Definition of required space/time scale/multi-scale and
population size;
• Difficulty in integrating different risks to health;
• Lack of integration between land use and transport
planners
• Lack of multidisciplinary teams capable of coping with
‘integrated problems’
• What is relevant in different contexts?
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Conclusions
Integration of models for transport impacts on health is a
complex process that can be addressed in different ways.
I brought as an example the work, in particular the
methodologies and software, done in various projects and
I am available to discuss the role of health when it has to
be considered together with planning and transport
policies that is projects involving (most of the times in a
separate way) engineering, geography, mathematics,
software programming, epidemiology etc..
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Transport, health and environment
Pierpaolo Mudu [email protected]
Thank you for
your attention
References:
Hosking J., Mudu P., Dora C. (2011) Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation - Transport sector.
Geneva: WHO
Mudu P., Terracini B. and Martuzzi M. (2012) Human health in areas with industrial contamination.
Copenaghen: WHO. Forthcoming
HEARTS: www.euro.who.int/hearts
ISHTAR: www.ishtar-fp5-eu.com/
