What You (We) Can Do CLIM 101: Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society

What You (We) Can Do

CLIM 101: Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society

CLIM 101 - Fall 2010

Readings

• RG Part 5• GW Chapter 12


Two Recent Books

Published by William Morrow (2009)

Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis

Al GorePublished by Rodale Books (2009)


Adaptation & Mitigation• Adaptation: initiatives and measures to

reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects

• Mitigation: actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to enhance sinks aimed at reducing the magnitude and extent of climate change


1. Adaptation can reduce vulnerability to climate change.

2. Adaptive capacity is uneven across society and is connected to social and economic development

3. Substantial adaptation and mitigation can be achieved with existing technology.

Adaptation, Mitigation, and Sustainable Development


Mitigation

1. Conservation

2. Alternative Energy (solar, wind, biofuels, etc)

3. Carbon Capture and Sequestration

4. Geoengineering


Examples of Mitigation Programs

• Efficient vehicles; Reduced use of vehicles

• Biomass fuel to replace use of oil

• Efficient buildings; Efficient appliances

• Replace coal power plants with natural gas, nuclear, solar

• Add wind turbines for power generation

• Capture and store carbon from power plants

• Switch to vegetarian diet

• Stop deforestation; replant forests


• CO2 Capture and Storage

• Forests and Soils

• Nuclear Fission

• Fuel Switch

• Energy Efficiency/Conservation

• Renewable Electricity/Fuels

Stabilization Activities


Geoengineering1. Reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere• To convert CO2 as solid form

2. Reduce amount of sunlight reaching Earth• Inject sulfur particles into the upper atmosphere reflect

solar radiation (Volcanoes)

• Spray sea water increase reflectivity of marine stratus clouds reflect solar radiation (1500 ships ~ increase reflectivity by 10%)

• White roof tops


What We Can Do

• Immediately: conservation and energy efficiency• Help elect enlightened leaders and policymakers

• Educate the public• Social, economic, scientific, and technological

research• Create new institutions

• International dialogues and negotiations• Tax; Cap and trade

(Individuals; Institutions; Governments)


http://www.cc2010.mx/en/


Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets

IPCC: 25% below the 1990 level by 2020IPCC: 80% below the 1990 level by 2050

New York: 10% below the 1990 level by 2020Vermont: 25% below the 1990 level by 2012

Virginia: 0% below the 2000 level by 2025

Waxman-Markey: 17% below the 2005 level by 2020


Bruce Usher Op-Ed, New York Times, 28 Nov. 2010

• “… there is an alternative to this top-down approach to climate change: a bottom-up strategy that stands a much better chance of working. Rather than count on international negotiations to produce an effective strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the United States should build upon the innovative clean-energy developments already under way in individual states.”

• “These state-level efforts are already having national impact. Last year, renewable energy accounted for more than half of all the new power generation plants nationwide. Another 40 percent was from natural gas, which emits only half as much CO2 as coal.”


Examples of Adaptation in AgricultureAgriculture is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage, both seasonal mean and variability. Adaptive practices to the changes in water availability for agriculture include:

• Distribution networks • Drought tolerant crop varieties• More spending on irrigation• Rainwater storage• Weather control

– Cloud seeding – Replicating the urban heat island effect to increase rain downwind

• Damming glacial lakes– Protects communities at risk of sudden glacial dam bursts– Provides hydroelectric power


Jack Hedin, Minnesota Farmer Op-Ed, New York Times, 28 Nov. 2010

• Recent events:– “In August 2007, a series of storms produced a breathtaking 23 inches of rain in

36 hours. The flooding that followed essentially erased our farm from the map.”– “… in June 2008 torrential rains and flash flooding returned. The federal

government declared the second natural disaster in less than a year for the region.”

– “The 2010 growing season has again been extraordinarily wet. The more than 20 inches of rain that I measured in my rain gauge in June and July disrupted nearly every operation on our farm.”

– “The most recent onslaught was a pair of heavy storms in late September that dropped 8.2 inches of rain.”

• “… at least here in the Midwest, weather fluctuations have been more significant during my time than in his, the Dust Bowl notwithstanding. The weather in our area has become demonstrably more hostile to agriculture, and all signs are that this trend will continue.”

• “Climate change, I believe, may eventually pose an existential threat to my way of life. A family farm like ours may simply not be able to adjust quickly enough to such unendingly volatile weather.”


Examples of Adaptation in AgricultureAgriculture is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage, both seasonal mean and variability. Adaptive practices to the changes in water availability for agriculture include:

• Distribution networks • Drought tolerant crop varieties• More spending on irrigation• Rainwater storage• Weather control

– Cloud seeding – Replicating the urban heat island effect to increase rain downwind

• Damming glacial lakes– Protects communities at risk of sudden glacial dam bursts– Provides hydroelectric power


Agricultural Practices

• Mulching, no-till farming, use of cover crop and use of manure for 1.5 billion hectares worldwide could sequester about one billion tons of carbon dioxide each year.


Inter-relationships Between Adaptation and Mitigation

• Effective climate policy aimed at reducing the risks of climate change to natural and human systems involves a portfolio of diverse adaptation and mitigation actions

• Decisions on adaptation and mitigation are taken at different governance levels and inter-relationships exist within and across each of these levels

• Creating synergies between adaptation and mitigation can increase the cost-effectiveness of actions and make them more attractive to stakeholders, including potential funding agencies

• It is not yet possible to answer the question as to whether or not investment in adaptation would buy time for mitigation

• People’s capacities to adapt and mitigate are driven by similar sets of factors

CLIM 101 - Fall 2010 Thanks: R. Cicerone

Electricity Consumption/person in the US and California

(current electricity generation in the US ~ 1 TW, 2020 ~ 1.4 TW)

U.S.

California


V. Ramanathan and D. Victor, UCSD Op-Ed, New York Times, 28 Nov. 2010

• CO2

– “… without deep cuts in carbon dioxide emissions, there can be no permanent solution to warming.

– “The carbon dioxide problem is hard to fix … will take decades and trillions of dollars to convert all the world’s fossil-fuel-based energy systems to cleaner systems like nuclear, solar and wind power.”

• “… take a few immediate, practical actions that could have a tangible effect on the climate in the coming decades.”

• “Other potent warming agents include three short-lived gases — methane, some hydrofluorocarbons and lower atmospheric ozone — and dark soot particles.”


V. Ramanathan and D. Victor, UCSD Op-Ed, New York Times, 28 Nov. 2010

• “With relatively minor changes — for example, replacing old gas pipelines, better managing the water used in rice cultivation (so that less of the rice rots) and collecting the methane emitted by landfills — it would be possible to lower methane emissions by 40%.”

• “Shifting from HFCs to substitutes that are 100X less potent as climate warmers could offset nearly a decade’s increase in warming that is expected from rising emissions of carbon dioxide. The delegates in Cancún would need only to ask that the Montreal Protocol take on the further authority to regulate HFCs.”

• “… pollution restrictions that reduce ozone levels, especially in the rapidly growing polluted cities of Asia, could both clear the air and slow warming.”

• “New air pollution regulations could help reduce soot. Such laws in California have cut diesel-soot emissions in that state by half. In China and India, a program to improve power generation, filter soot from diesel engines, reduce emissions from brick-making kilns and provide more efficient cookstoves could cut the levels of soot in those regions by ~2/3.”– “… [the United States] can already offer the world much of the technology and

regulatory expertise that will be needed to reduce short-lived pollutants, particularly ozone and soot.”


Recent US Trends: Encouraging

• 9% drop in US emissions in past 2 years(Recession; High gasoline price; Efficiency; Non-carbon energy)

• Wind farms, Solar power plants rapidly increasing

• Corporations concerned about risk, public opinion

• EPA ready to regulate Carbon under the Clean Air Act

(Supreme court, 2007); “A glorious mess”


Spiritual Dimension of Climate Change

• “God gave man stewardship over the Earth, and that preserving it for future generations is a sacred obligation” – Al Sharpton & Pat Robertson an odd couple, plea

for “taking care of the planet.”• Gore: gives training to Christian , Muslim,

Hindu, Jewish groups.



Our Common Future


IPCC 2007

Number of Years before the Present (quasi-log scale)

The last 10,000 years have been ideal for the development of human

societies: This has been a unique time during which climate varied very little and thereby enabling

human-kind to flourish


Global Well-Being (sustainability, security

and the future of civilization)

The Global Challenge

Inequality and Extreme Poverty

Human PopulationGrowth

EnvironmentalDegradation


Challenges and Opportunities

• Provide food and quality life to 9 billion people.

• Reduce probability of catastrophic impacts.

• No magic bullet - need to push on all fronts).

• Must reduce demand for CO2.

• Cost in GDP ‘small’ but how to distribute?

• US must lead.

• Roles of Govts, Industry, civil society


Sustainable Development

“The balance of economic growth, social

justice, and environmental health that

meets the needs of present generation

and enables future generations to meet

their needs.”Our Common Future (1987)

The Brundtland Report


Managing planet Earth……

A new phase in human history

An enormous challenge……

Are we up to it?


Yes

Managing planet Earth……

A new phase in human history

An enormous challenge……

Are we up to it?

Documents

What You (We) Can Do CLIM 101: Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society