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Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
What makes you go to the cinema?
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU
ENAC
May 27, 2015
1/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
What are we going to talk about?
1 Introduction
2 First model
3 Improved second model
4 Conclusion
2/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Our aim on this project
Perform an econometrics study on people’s cinema habits
3/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Our aim on this project
Perform an econometrics study on people’s cinema habits
Collect real and appropriate data
4/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Our aim on this project
Perform an econometrics study on people’s cinema habits
Collect real and appropriate data
Interpret our data with EViews and try to modelize the resultsto find an answer to our problem
5/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Our survey (1)
2 Surveys : one in English, onein French
Figure: screenshot of our survey6/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Our survey (1)
2 Surveys : one in English, onein French
Spread via Facebook, mail
Figure: screenshot of our survey7/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Our survey (1)
2 Surveys : one in English, onein French
Spread via Facebook, mail
168 answers in 12 days, 161usable
Figure: screenshot of our survey8/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Our survey (2)
Figure: Number of answers to our survey as a fonction of the date
9/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Who answered our survey ?
Biased survey : survey spreadmostly to our friends
Figure: screenshot of our survey10/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Who answered our survey ?
Biased survey : survey spreadmostly to our friends
Main affected characteristics: age, wage, nationality...
Figure: screenshot of our survey11/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Who answered our survey ? Age bias (1)
Figure: Histogram of the age of people who answered our survey
12/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Who answered our survey ?Age bias (2)
Mostly students : aged between20 and 30
Age parameter notrepresentative : we droppedthis parameter!
Figure: age proportion compared to 30
13/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Who answered our survey ? Nationality bias
1 : French
2 : USA
0 : Others
Nationality not representative: we dropped this parameter!
Figure: Histogram of nationalities14/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Our variables
47 different variables
Coded in 3 different ways : binary, continuous, discretedepending on the variables
Only 161 usable observations→ some parameters had to be dropped
→We only kept about 20 of them
15/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Forecasted influence of the variables (1)
Nature of the variable Name of the parameter Expected influence
Car = 1; No car = 0 CAR +Continuous CINEFRIENDS ?Cinelover = 1; No = 0 CINELOVER +Continuous DISTANCERTODO +Discrete (0-10) FIGHT +> a week 1 ; 0 FILMHOME +Discrete (0-10) FILMSEQUEL +Male 1; Female 0 GENDER ?Rank (1 to 12 ) HISTORICAL -Rank (1 to 12 ) MUSICALS -Discrete (0-10) ORIGINAL VOICE +
16/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Forecasted influence of the variables (2)
Nature of the variable Name of the parameter Expected influence
Discrete (0-10) PRESSREVIEW +Discrete (0-10) SEAT LOC +Rank (1 to 12 ) THRILLER -Binary 0 :<2000 €/m WAGE +Rank (1 to 12 ) WAR +Rank (1 to 12 ) COMEDIES -Continuous CLOSEST CINE -1 : Civil servant; 0 Not CIVIL SERVANT +
17/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Presentation of our first model
Simple linear model, only 14 variables were kept
Here is the model:
First model
Cinefrequency = β1 + β2.Cinelover + β3.Civil Servant+
β4.Closestcine + β5.Comedies + β6.Eveningouts + β7.Fights +β8.Gender + β9.Historical + β10.Movie Book + β11.Musicals +β12.Pressreview + β13.Seatloc + β14.Wage + β15.War + ui
18/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Analysis of the first model(1)
Wage has a huge negativeimpact?
Presence of fights in the moviehas negative impact?
Cinelover has a very highpositive impact :)
19/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Analysis of the first model(2)
R2 = 17% : Rather poormodel!
Adjusted R2 = 9% : Evenpoorer :(!
Many parameters have a highprobability : not significant
We need a new model
20/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
First model after computation
First model with coefficients
Cinefrequency = 12.20 + 7.402.Cinelover − 0.9854.Civil Servant
- 0.0036.Closestcine- 0.0224.Comedies + 0.8233.Eveningouts -1.249.Fights + 3.30.Gender - 0.481.Historical + 0.618.Movie book- 0.328.Musicals + 0.934.Pressreview +0.826.Seatloc - 8.16.Wage- 0.658.War + ui
21/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
2nd model
We added variables to themodel to increase the precision
Figure: Coefficients of our 2nd model22/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Main unexpected effects
Gender : Men tend to go moreto the cinema than women
Wage : The bigger it is , theless you go to the cinema ?!
Civil servants : They go less tothe cinema
Figure: Coefficients of our 2nd model23/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
2nd model
R2 = 29, 5%
F-statistic = 3,09
p-value = 0,000065
Figure: Coefficients of our 2nd model24/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
F-statistic
F-statistic = 3,09 > F(19;0,01)=2.8609
α < 0.01→ we do reject the NULL
Our equation as a whole has a statistically significant amountof explanatory power !
25/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Ramsey RESET test
We test the linearity
F statistic : 6.01 > F(20;0,001)= 3,84
We cannot really assume themodel is linear
Figure: Ramsey RESET26/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Jarque Bera
Huge Jarque Bera value : weare sure that our errors don’tfollow a normal law.
Leptokurtic distribution : notvery peaked
Skewness >0
Figure: Resids27/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Resids
Our errors don’t follow the line ,but we expected that with theJB value
Figure: Resids28/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Conclusion
Our model
Quite poor linear model ,needs some squaredvariables
Errors are not following anormal law
R2 = 29, 5% can still beimproved
29/31
Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
Conclusion(2)
What could be improved ?
We still have some variables with high p-values
We targeted mainly french students
More data could have brought more precise results
We binarized too many variables
There might be no reason why people go to the cinema ?!
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Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
Table of contentsIntroductionFirst Model
Improved second modelConclusion
The END
Any questions ?
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Romain FLAMBARD, Erwann RIVES, Thibault SIRIGU What makes you go to the cinema?
