What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,

IntroductionData gathering & expected results

Preliminary analysisModel

Conclusion

What are the characteristics of people who cometo Airexpo?

Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre

ENAC

May 21, 2014

Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?



Conclusion

1 Introduction

2 Data gathering & expected results

3 Preliminary analysis

4 Model

5 Conclusion




Conclusion

Table of Contents

1 Introduction



4 Model

5 Conclusion




Conclusion

Who comes to Airexpo?




Conclusion

Table of Contents

1 Introduction



4 Model

5 Conclusion




Conclusion

Data Gathering

Google docs survey

31 questions - 27 to be used for the modelExport in MS Excel format, conversion to .csv format forEViewsPublished on the official Airexpo Facebook page

Incentive for answering:

Two tickets for Airexpo 2014A pack of Airexpo-branded goodies

Result: 532 answers (!)




Conclusion

Data Gathering

Google docs survey








Conclusion

Data Gathering

Google docs survey








Conclusion

Explanatory variables and expected results

variables expected effect

gender -age +/-

occupation ?car +

how will come ?Ae knowledge +ae how learn ?

location know +know stu +free 12 +

entrance price +shuttle +




Conclusion

Explanatory variables and expected results

variables expected effect

already airshow +times a year +

where come from -eco -

passion +flights +

no flights +vertigo ?

week end +org +

fb friends +results +prize +




Conclusion

Table of Contents

1 Introduction



4 Model

5 Conclusion




Conclusion

Answers - Dependent variable

Figure : Histogram of the answers to “How many times did you come toAirexpo”




Conclusion

Answers

No Issues with the correlation between variables

Possible issues of reverse-causality with some variables




Conclusion

Table of Contents

1 Introduction



4 Model

5 Conclusion




Conclusion

First model - Equation

The equation used for this model is:

HOW MANY TIMES = β1 + β2GENDER + β3AGE

+ β4OCCUPATION + β5CAR + β6HOW WILL COME

+ β7AE KNOWLEDGE + β8AE HOW LEARN

+ β9LOCATION KNOW + β10KNOW STU

+ β11FREE 12 + β12ENTRANCE PRICE

+ β13SHUTTLE + β14ALREADY AIRSHOW

+ β15TIMES A YEAR + β16WHERE COME FROM

+ β17ECO + β18PASSION + β19FLIGHTS

+ β20WEEK END + β21ORG + β22FB FRIENDS

+ β23RESULTS + β24PRIZE




Conclusion

First model - coefficients

Figure : Coefficients for the model




Conclusion

Second model - Equation

The equation used for this model is:

HOW MANY TIMES = β1 + β2GENDER + β3AGE

+ β4OCCUPATION + β5CAR + β6HOW WILL COME

+ β7AE KNOWLEDGE + β8AE HOW LEARN

+ β9LOCATION KNOW + β10KNOW STU

+ β11FREE 12 + β12ENTRANCE PRICE

+ β13SHUTTLE + β14ALREADY AIRSHOW

+ β15TIMES A YEAR + β16WHERE COME FROM

+ β17ECO + β18ECO2 + β19PASSION + β20FLIGHTS

+ β21WEEK END + β22ORG + β23FB FRIENDS

+ β24RESULTS + β25PRIZE




Conclusion

Second model - coefficients

Figure : Coefficients for the model




Conclusion

Coefficient effects

variables expected effect real effect

gender - -age +/- +

occupation ? +car + +

how will come ? +Ae knowledge + +ae how learn ? +

location know + +know stu + +free 12 + +

entrance price + +shuttle + +




Conclusion

Coefficient effects

variables expected effect real effect

already airshow + -times a year + +

where come from - -eco - -

passion + +flights + -

no flights + -vertigo ? +

week end + -org + +

fb friends + -results + +prize + +




Conclusion

Ramsey RESET test

Figure : Ramsey RESET test results




Conclusion

Residual

Figure : Residual from the model




Conclusion

Heteroskedasticity Test

Figure : Heteroskedasticity test results (White)




Conclusion

Table of Contents

1 Introduction



4 Model

5 Conclusion




Conclusion

Conclusion (1)

A good amount of data collected - giving an incentive doeshelp

A fairly good model overall

Assumptions on the data are globally appropriate




Conclusion

Conclusion (1)







Conclusion

Conclusion (1)







Conclusion

Conclusion (2)

Figure : Forecast model over observations




Conclusion

Conclusion (3)

Would you have any questions?


Documents

What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,