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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Predicting the Olympics Winners
Nicolas Hanss, Alexandre Lauga
ENAC
April 23, 2018
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Sommaire
1 Introduction
2 Forecasting the winners
3 What if countries merged?
4 Conclusion
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Overview
1 Introduction
2 Forecasting the winnersWho would have won the Rio Olympics according to ourmodel?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
3 What if countries merged?France and Great BritainKyrgyzstan-India-Mongolia
4 Conclusion
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Sample
Sample Collection
n=181 countriesThroughout the Rio and Sotchi Olympics.
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Sample Variables
Variables
Population
HDI
Mean years of schooling
Internet penetration
Unemployment rate
Income
Phone
Only for the winter Olympics:
Minimum monthly temperature
Maximum altitude
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Capturing Human Development
HDI Definition
HDI computed with:
Life expectancy
Mean years of schooling
Gross National Income
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Medal count
Medal count
9 points for Gold
3 points for Silver
1 point for Bronze
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Sommaire
1 Introduction
2 Forecasting the winnersWho would have won the Rio Olympics according to ourmodel?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
3 What if countries merged?
4 Conclusion
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Analysis of the variables
Figure: Population (in millions) 9 / 29
IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Analysis of the variables
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Analysis of the variables
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Summer Olympics Explanatory Variables
Explanatory Variables Expectations Model
POP + +POP2 + -100*(HDI> 0.85) + +SCHOOL + +INTERNET + insignificant
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Regression model and coefficients
Variables Model
C -38.35POP 0.97***POP2 -0.0008***100*HDI> 0.85 0.36***INTERNET -0.078SCHOOL 4.84**
R squared 0.415F-stat 24.92Prob. 0.00
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Regression Output
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Summer Olympics Winners
Figure: Expectation Figure: Reality
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
What about the winter Olympics?
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Analysis of the new variable
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Winter Olympics Explanatory Variables
Explanatory Variables Expectations Model
POP + +++POP2 + -100*(HDI> 0.85) +++ +PHONE + insignificantUNEMPLOYMENT - insignificantTEMP - insignificantHMAX + insignificantTEMP*(-HMAX) + +
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Regression
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Figure: Expectation Figure: Reality
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Failure of the classical assumptions
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Figure: Correlation matrix
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Who would have won the Rio Olympics according to our model?What about Pyeongchang?Limits of our modelBetter model without outliers ?
Without outliers
Figure: Model without outliers
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
France and Great BritainKyrgyzstan-India-Mongolia
Sommaire
1 Introduction
2 Forecasting the winners
3 What if countries merged?France and Great BritainKyrgyzstan-India-Mongolia
4 Conclusion
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
France and Great BritainKyrgyzstan-India-Mongolia
France & Great Britain
France
POP=40.2
HDI=0.9
HMAX=4810
TEMP=3.9
Great Britain
POP=41.7
HDI=0.91
HMAX=1340
TEMP=2.8Figure: If France and Great Britain merged
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
France and Great BritainKyrgyzstan-India-Mongolia
Would merged countries with 0 point score?
Mongolia
POP=2
HDI=0.74
HMAX=4374
TEMP=-18
IndiaPOP=860
HDI=0.62
HMAX=8850
TEMP=17.5
Kyrgyzstan
POP=3.8
HDI=0.66
HMAX=7439
TEMP=-12.7
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Sommaire
1 Introduction
2 Forecasting the winners
3 What if countries merged?
4 Conclusion
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
Conclusion
Model predictions close to reality
But limits to our model
A few variables preponderant compared to the others
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IntroductionForecasting the winners
What if countries merged?Conclusion
How to improve our model
Look more in details at each discipline
More specific data for each country : measure how they assignimportance to different sports
Expand the data with previous Olympics −→ time series data→ Take into account the host effect
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