What is up (and down) with King County river flows?your.kingcounty.gov/dnrp/library/water-and-land/science/seminars/... · What is up (and down) with King County river flows? WLRD

What is up (and down) with King County river flows?

WLRD Science SeminarCurtis DeGasperi

King County Water and Land Resources Division

May 5, 2009

Why care about river flows?

• Aquatic and riparian ecosystems are adapted to the magnitude, frequency, timing, and duration of flow

• Humans depend on riverine ecosystem functions and can be affected by the magnitude, frequency, timing, and duration of flow.

Water Cycle Components

Human Impacts on Water Cycle

• Land cover change– Forest management – Urbanization– Channelization

• Water management– Reservoirs (flood control-hydropower)– Irrigation– Water supply

• Climate Change

HadCm3 yr 2000HadCm3 yr 2025HadCm3 yr 2050

Median April 1st Snow Pack for Snohomish Basin

http://www.psparchives.com/publications/our_work/climate/climate_report/psat_climate2005_report_lowres.pdf

Forest Harvest, Fires, Losses

Bowling et al. (2000)

Selected Data

• Daily total precipitation for 9 stations• Daily average discharge from 10 relatively

unregulated USGS gauging stations

SELECTED STUDY BASINSSkykomish

Snoqualmie

Upper Cedar

Upper Green

USGS GAUGING STATIONS

9/1/1964 to present710(2,340)

83(32)

12145500Raging River near Fall City

10/1/1929 to present710(2,340)

1,530(590)

12149000Snoqualmie River near Carnation

10/1/1959 to present870(2,860)

971(375)

12144500Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie

10/1/1945 to present1000(3280)

105(40.7)

12115000Cedar River near Cedar Falls

10/1/1931 to present930(1140)

575(220)

12105900Green River at Howard Hanson Dam

10/1/1960 to present1040(3410)

108(41.6)

12143400South Fork Snoqualmie River above Alice Creek

10/1/1961 to present1040(3400)

399(154)

12141300Middle Fork Snoqualmie River near Tanner

10/1/1929 to 9/30/194910/1/1961 to present

930(3060)

166(64)

12142000North Fork Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie Falls

9/1/1937 to present720(2,360)

210(80)

12148500Tolt River near Carnation

10/1/1928 to present1050(3,450)

1,386(535)

12134500Skykomish River near Goldbar

Period of Continuous Daily Records

Mean Elev.meters(feet)

Area km2

(mi2)

StationDescription

Selected USGS Stations

PRECIPITATION GAUGING STATIONS

458508609South Fork Tolt

450945209Buckley

45803452Startup

451233476Cedar Falls

999999442Culmback

457773134Snoqualmie Falls

457473122SeaTac

45552537Monroe

45267518Everett

COOP_IDElevation (meters)

Station

PRISM 1971-2000

RAIN-ON-SNOW

Time series plots of monthly precipitation percentiles (10th-, 50th-, and 90th-percentiles) based on water year 1962-2008 daily total precipitation records

Precipitation

Culmback

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Pre

cip

(in)

01020304050

10th-percentile90th-percentile50th-percentile

Everett (452675)


Pre

cip

(in)

0

5

10

15

20

Monroe (455525)


Pre

cip

(in)

0

5

10

15

20

SeaTac (4574738)


Pre

cip

(in)

0

5

10

15

20South Fork Tolt (458508)


Pre

cip

(in)

05

1015202530

Snoqualmie (457773)


Pre

cip

(in)

0

5

10

15

20

Startup (458034)


Pre

cip

(in)

0

5

10

15

20

Buckley


Pre

cip

(in)

0

5

10

15

20

Cedar Lake


Pre

cip

(in)

05

1015202530

Time series plots of monthly discharge percentiles (10th-, 50th-, and 90th-percentiles) based on water year 1962-2008 daily USGS discharge records

USGS Discharge

Cedar River near Cedar Falls (12115000)

Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

10th-percentile90th-percentile50th-percentile

Skykomish near Goldbar (12134500)

Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

02000400060008000

100001200014000

Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner (12141300)

Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls (12142000)

Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek (12143400)


Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

0200400600800

10001200

Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie (12144500)

Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

02000400060008000

10000

Green River at Howard Hanson (12105900)


Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Raging River near Fall City (12145500)

Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Snoqualmie River near Carnation (12149000)

Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

02000400060008000

100001200014000Tolt River near Carnation (12148500)

Dis

char

ge (c

fs)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Trend Analysis Approach

• Non-parametric “distribution free” method– Mann-Kendall Trend test


+Type II Error: failure to detect an existing trend due to weakness of the trend, of the methodology, or the shortness of the record

No

Type I Error: false trend detected when none exists

+Yes

Has a trend been detected?

NoYesDoes a trend exist?


• p between 1.0 and 0.1 (weakest evidence) • p between 0.1 and 0.05 (weak evidence) • p between 0.05 and 0.01 (strong

evidence)• p <0.01 (strongest evidence)

“Nothing is certain, but I think some things are more nearly

certain than others”- Bertrand Russell (paraphrased)

50th-Percentile

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

CulmbackEverett (452675)Monroe (455525)SeaTac (457473)South Fork Tolt (458508)Snoqualmie (457773)Startup (458034)Buckley (450945)Cedar Lake (451233)

5th-Percentile

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.35

25th-Percentile

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

75th-Percentile

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

1.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

Annual maximum

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0

10

20

30

40

50

Time series plots of normalized annual precipitation percentiles (5th-, 25th-, 50th, 75th, and annual maximum divided by record median precipitation) based on water year 1929-2008daily total precipitation records

Precipitation

Trend plots of annual precipitation percentiles (every 10th-percentile) based on water year 1962-2008 daily total precipitation records* Precipitation

Culmback

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

in p

er 1

00 y

r

-10123

p<=1.0p<0.1p<0.05p<0.01

Everett (452675)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

in p

er 1

00 y

r-10123

Monroe (455525)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

in p

er 1

00 y

r

-10123

SeaTac (457473)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

in p

er 1

00 y

r

-10123

South Fork Tolt (458508)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100in

per

100

yr

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

Snoqualmie (457773)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

in p

er 1

00 y

r

-10123

Startup (458034)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

in p

er 1

00 y

r

-10123

Buckley(450945)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

in p

er 1

00 y

r

-10123

Cedar Lake(451233)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

in p

er 1

00 y

r

-10123

50th-Percentile

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2

Green River above Howard Hanson (12105900)Cedar River near Cedar Falls (12115000)Skykomish near Goldbar (12134500)Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner (12141300)North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls (12142000)South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek (12143400)Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie (12144500 )Raging River near Fall City (12145500)Tolt River near Carnation (12148500)Snoqualmie River near Carnation (12149000)

Annual Minimum

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

25th-Percentile

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2

75th-Percentile

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

Annual maximum

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm

aliz

ed p

erce

ntile

0

10

20

30

40

50

Time series plots of normalized annual discharge percentiles (annual minimum, 25th-, 50th, 75th, and annual maximum divided by record median discharge) based on all available complete water year daily USGS discharge records

USGS Discharge

Trend plots of annual discharge percentiles (every 10th-percentile) based on water year 1962-2008 daily USGS discharge records

USGS Discharge

North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls (12142000)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-10

0

10

20

30

40Cedar River near Cedar Falls (12115000)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r-202468

1012

p<=1.0p<0.1p<0.05p<0.01

Skykomish near Goldbar (12134500)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-500

50100150200250300

Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner (12141300)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-100

1020304050

South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek(12143400)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-202468

10121416

Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie (12144500)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-10-505

1015202530

Tolt River near Carnation (12148500)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-4-3-2-1012

Green River at Howard Hanson (12105900)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Raging River near Fall City(12145500)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-202468

1012

Snoqualmie River near Carnation (12149000)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CFS

per

yea

r

-40-20

020406080

100120

Water Years 1962 – 2008Trends in Monthly Total Precipitation at 9 Gauging Stations

Everett, Monroe, Startup, SeaTac, Snoqualmie, Buckley, Culmback, Cedar Lake, South Fork Tolt

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Num

ber o

f Sta

tions

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

All positive or negative trends (|tau|>0)Trends with weak evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.10)Trends with stronger evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.05)Trends with strongest evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.01)

Water Years 1962 – 2008Trends in Monthly Maximum Precipitation at 9 Gauging Stations

Everett, Monroe, Startup, SeaTac, Snoqualmie, Buckley, Culmback, Cedar Lake, South Fork Tolt


Num

ber o

f Sta

tions

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10


Water Years 1962 – 2008

Daily data from USGS gauging stations on unregulated rivers in King County

Trends in Monthly Average Flow in 10 Relatively Unregulated King County RiversSkykomish near Goldbar, Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner, Tolt River near Carnation, North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls, South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek,

Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie, Snoqualmie near Carnation, Raging River near Fall City, Cedar River near Cedar Falls, Green River at Howard Hanson Dam


Num

ber o

f Sta

tions

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Daily data from USGS gauging stations on unregulated rivers in King County

Water Years 1962 – 2008Trends in Monthly Maximum Flow in 10 Relatively Unregulated King County Rivers

Skykomish near Goldbar, Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner, Tolt River near Carnation, North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls, South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek,

Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie, Snoqualmie near Carnation, Raging River near Fall City, Cedar River near Cedar Falls, Green River at Howard Hanson Dam


Num

ber o

f Sta

tions

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Salathé (2006) Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 33:L19820

Storm Tracks and Precipitation

y = -0.07x + 164.93

0

10

20

30

40

50

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Thou

sand

s of

cub

ic fe

et p

er

seco

nd

Total Puget Sound inflow 5-year centered moving average Linear (Total Puget Sound inflow)

site_no description12200500 SKAGIT RIVER NEAR MOUNT VERNON, WA12134500 SKYKOMISH RIVER NEAR GOLD BAR, WA12149000 SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION, WA12101500 PUYALLUP RIVER AT PUYALLUP, WA12167000 NF STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON, WA12113000 GREEN RIVER NEAR AUBURN, WA12061500 SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH, WA12119000 CEDAR RIVER AT RENTON, WA12054000 DUCKABUSH RIVER NEAR BRINNON, WA

StationarityA random process where its

statistical properties do not vary with time

Stationarity is dead

• Adaptation to climate change in the absence of a General Unified Theory

• Trade false certainty for uncertainty• Continuity of long-term monitoring is

critical• “Modeling should be used to synthesize

observations; it can never replace them.”• Greater emphasis on soft (non-structural)

management (engineering) solutionsMilley et al. 2008. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management. Science Vol. 319. no. 5863, pp. 573 - 574DOI: 10.1126/science.1151915

Adaptation, Resilience, Overcoming Old Dichotomies

• Adapt to an uncertain non-stationary environment

• Adaptation as an integrating principle in water management – water law, policy, and management

• More and better data, information, and modeling

• Ecosystem, watershed, integrated water or watershed management

“No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the

future”- Ian E. Wilson (former chairman of GE)

Documents

What is up (and down) with King County river flows?your.kingcounty.gov/dnrp/library/water-and-land/science/seminars/... · What is up (and down) with King County river flows? WLRD