wintersresearch.files.wordpress.com · Web viewOlivia: I am fed up with it all; I’ll be glad when it’s over. I think it’s gone quite negative, very much saying bad things

Glasgow Pre 2

THE QUALITATIVE ELECTION STUDY OF BRITAIN 2015

Cardiff Pre-Election Focus Group 2conducted April 18th 2015

Transcribed Focus Groups Dataset

Version 1.0

Date of release: 30 September 2016

Principal InvestigatorDr. Edzia Carvalho, University of Dundee

International Co-InvestigatorDr. Kristi Winters, GESIS, Cologne

Funded by British Academy and Leverhulme Trust Small Grant SG142740

and supported by Carnegie Corporation of New York, GESIS-Leibniz Institute (Cologne) and University of Dundee

QESB [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

1Transcribed by: Just Write Secretarial Services, Belfast, Northern Ireland. Contact: [email protected]

‘QESB’qualesb2015 @qualesb

mailto:[email protected]

Glasgow Pre 2

2015 Alias Sex

Special Category

Age group Supporter Party

Strength

Pre Group Post Group Constituency 2015 vote preference

Noah M Student 18-25 Y Labour 4 Cardiff 2 Cardiff 1 Cardiff Central Y, and partyOlivia F Retired 57-64 Y Lib Dem 1 Cardiff 2 No Cardiff Central Y, not which partyStanley M N 49-56 Y Tory 4 Cardiff 2 Cardiff 2 Cardiff North Y, and party



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ContentsCAMPAIGN IMPRESSIONS......................................................................................................................4

Noah..................................................................................................................................................4

Noah..................................................................................................................................................4

Noah..................................................................................................................................................4

Olivia..................................................................................................................................................4

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................4

MEDIA CONSUMPTION..........................................................................................................................5

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................5

Olivia..................................................................................................................................................5

Noah..................................................................................................................................................5

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................6

Olivia..................................................................................................................................................6

Olivia..................................................................................................................................................6

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................6

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................6

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................6

PARTY LEADER HANDOUT.....................................................................................................................7

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................7

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................7

Noah..................................................................................................................................................7

Olivia..................................................................................................................................................7

Noah..................................................................................................................................................8

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................8

Olivia..................................................................................................................................................8

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Noah..................................................................................................................................................9

Olivia..................................................................................................................................................9

Stanley...............................................................................................................................................9

Olivia..................................................................................................................................................9

Noah..................................................................................................................................................9

Noah..................................................................................................................................................9

Noah..................................................................................................................................................9



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Stanley...............................................................................................................................................9

Olivia................................................................................................................................................10

Noah................................................................................................................................................10

Olivia................................................................................................................................................10

Noah................................................................................................................................................10

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................10

Olivia................................................................................................................................................10

Noah................................................................................................................................................10

Olivia................................................................................................................................................10

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................11

Noah................................................................................................................................................11

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................11

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Stanley.............................................................................................................................................11

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................12

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................12

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Noah................................................................................................................................................12

Olivia................................................................................................................................................12

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Stanley.............................................................................................................................................13

Noah................................................................................................................................................13

Olivia................................................................................................................................................13

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Stanley.............................................................................................................................................14

Noah................................................................................................................................................14

Olivia................................................................................................................................................14

Noah................................................................................................................................................14

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................14

PARTY CONSIDER VOTING FOR HANDOUT..........................................................................................14

Noah................................................................................................................................................15

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................16

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................16

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Stanley.............................................................................................................................................17

Olivia................................................................................................................................................17

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................17

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VOTING CONSIDERATIONS..................................................................................................................18



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Stanley.............................................................................................................................................18

Olivia................................................................................................................................................18

Olivia................................................................................................................................................18

Olivia................................................................................................................................................19

Noah................................................................................................................................................19

VOTER REGISTRATION.........................................................................................................................19

Noah................................................................................................................................................19

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................20

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................20

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................20

Olivia................................................................................................................................................20

DEBATES..............................................................................................................................................21

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................21

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Noah................................................................................................................................................21

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................22

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Stanley.............................................................................................................................................23

Noah................................................................................................................................................24

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................24

Noah................................................................................................................................................24



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Olivia................................................................................................................................................24

Noah................................................................................................................................................25

Olivia................................................................................................................................................25

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................25

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................25

Olivia................................................................................................................................................25

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Noah................................................................................................................................................25

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................26

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................26

Olivia................................................................................................................................................26

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................26

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................26

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Noah................................................................................................................................................27

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................27

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................27

Olivia................................................................................................................................................28

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Noah................................................................................................................................................28

ELECTION OUTCOME PREDICTIONS.....................................................................................................28

Olivia................................................................................................................................................28



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Stanley.............................................................................................................................................28

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Noah................................................................................................................................................28

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................29

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................31

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................31

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................31

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Olivia................................................................................................................................................32

Stanley.............................................................................................................................................32



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CAMPAIGN IMPRESSIONS

I: I’m Kristi, in case I hadn’t introduced myself. The first thing that I would like to ask you is to think about your impressions of the campaign so far. So you can think about how the parties are doing, nationally or even locally, the candidates doing nationally or locally, so what are your impressions so far of the campaign? We’ll start with Noah.

Noah: So far?

I: Yeah, just so far.

Noah: Generally, in terms of everything?

I: Yeah.

Noah: I feel there are parts of different policies that I agree with, stretching between different parties in the local sense and in the national sense. The election debates, besides the last one, haven't really voiced to me who I was going to vote for. The last one showed a lot to me, the fact that David Cameron wasn't there, and I had a sense there’s a pact forming already from the third one and that is something that interests me because of who I support. For me, that was quite revealing, compared to the other two, which I thought were quite strategically set to not really voice too many different opinions.

I: Thanks. Olivia?

Olivia: I am fed up with it all; I’ll be glad when it’s over. I think it’s gone quite negative, very much saying bad things about people, and I hate that. Why not stand up and say what you’ve done and what’s good for you? The other thing is I think there’s a lot of confusion about devolution and politicians are claiming that they’re going to make a difference to things that they can't. I’ll give you an example. When Jenny Willott, who is our MP, sent round a leaflet saying that she was going to do something about childcare and education, it’s devolved, you can't. She’s going to do something about parks, that’s a local council issue, you can't. I don't think people understand enough to challenge that and I think politicians are claiming things that they cannot... I have another example in Westways, my mother lives in Westways, there’s talking about closing a hospital, and I was talking to her about voting and she said "oh there’s so and so and they’re going to sort out the hospital!" They can't. NHS is devolved, it’s not down to them, and I think that’s muddying the waters.

I: Thank you; that was really good points.

Stanley: Olivia just made my points for me, in fact. I agree, as a campaign, I think it has been the most extraordinary negative one that I can recall. I normally follow elections in fairly good detail and I can't remember one as intellectually empty as this one, and we’ve



Cardiff Pre FG 2

had some intellectually empty elections in our time but I think this one takes the biscuit. I think that Olivia has made a very good point. There was an opinion poll here in Wales last year that said that almost 50% of the population didn't realise that the health service now is not the responsibility of the Westminster Government but of a Welsh Assembly, and yet I got literature through saying we will help do this for the NHS, we’ll do that for the NHS. Lies! Outright bloody lies! It used to be politicians were a bit loose with the truth but they never actually lied before, as they are doing this time, and I really, really… a plague on all their houses is my feeling at the moment.

I: Thank you very much for that.

I2: In terms of, you’ve given your impressions of the campaign, which were quite interesting for us as researchers. We were also wondering, in terms of keeping up with the campaign, so are you paying attention...are you using any particular methods to keep up? For example, television or radio or the newspaper or the internet or social media? Maybe Stanley, you could go first? How are you keeping up with the campaign?

MEDIA CONSUMPTIONStanley: Almost entirely internet these days. Occasionally I will watch the BBC news, but I find that very unsatisfactory. I no longer read a newspaper; I think they’re a total waste of time. So mostly it’s the internet. I have a lot of exchanges with my friends on Facebook, a lot of people posting out and saying you should read this and this. I am very lucky to have friends, and I think...well, five different political parties, and we’re disagreeing radically but we’re still remaining friends, so we’re lucky there. So from that point of view, it’s the first Facebook campaign, I suppose, that I’ve ever taken part in, or ever been an object of, rather. So I would say mostly internet; some social media but mostly internet.

I2: Thank you.

Olivia: I do log on and read the BBC news and I do watch it on the television. I follow certain politicians on Twitter and I have to keep reminding myself that I only follow certain politicians on Twitter. So when I think "oh God, they’re doing a lot of about something," no, that’s who you’re following. So I either need to broaden my Twitter following, or follow them all. I do read newspapers. Yeah, I think that’s it, quite a variety really.

I2: Thank you. Noah?

Noah: Mine is very much of the same. There’s a variety, mainly on the internet, Facebook, Twitter, posting articles, seeing people post articles, the comment feeds underneath are quite revealing, so you have to vote for people around certain things, or agree with some things. Just even if a friend made a comment on a post on Facebook and then you see a comment that you totally disagree with. There was one today for Weston-Super-Mare, a buy sells, swop article, completely irrelevant to politics, and people were talking about UKip



Cardiff Pre FG 2

and how you can't vote for UKip, and “I will vote for UKip alternative” was the quote, and that made a huge debate, about 100, 200 different comments back and forth. So just things like that, which for me get me talking about it, and obviously I’ve got the Sky News App and the BBC News App on my phone and I can use them to scan through…

I: So on your phones as well?

Stanley: Yeah, phone Apps, and I would flick through the newspaper front pages, go into the library maybe but I wouldn't sit down and read one newspaper every day.

I: Radio anyone?

Olivia: Yeah. But mainly Radio 4 so I'd be biased.

I: But it is a radio source that you're hearing it?

Olivia: Yes

I: When we you say internet does that mean you open up Google or whatever, your home pages, and you see the headlines or are you thinking of particular sites that you go to besides social media on the internet? Stanley?

Stanley: I have the BBC website as one of my favourites and I normally check it once a day, otherwise generally if I'm interested in an issue I will Google the issue, and I would normally... I hate using the Google, by the way, it’s terribly unreliable, but I would normally follow the Google leads to a certain extent, and one article leads onto another. I do like researching things in a fair amount of depth so I suppose I'm more issue based rather than site based in my internet searching.

I: I also saw you nodding when we mentioned internet comments, do you also read the comments?

Stanley: Yes, yes, and there’s one website here in Wales where I occasionally contribute to as well, which is more about Welsh affairs, The Institute of Welsh Affairs website. I often sound off there a bit; I've never sounded off anywhere else. The BBC comment section, for some reason they disabled during the election, I suppose something to do with election law, but that was always a very interesting indicator of where public mood normally is.

Stanley: When something is trended, so Kate Burley, who did the first election, if you typed her name up on Twitter negative comments were coming through about her, and Paxman as well, those things, you can see that your thoughts are exactly the same as everyone else’s and you could contribute a massive data on the same thing. It was quite good actually.



Cardiff Pre FG 2

PARTY LEADER HANDOUTI: Thank you. Should we move on to the second question, the party leaders? So we're going to discuss the party leaders, and we have a handout for you. So we’re going to do is give you pictures of the leaders, because sometimes people don't always know who the leaders are, depending on... obviously you're in Wales so you mightn't know SNP. After the debates most people know who Nicola is. But the idea is that we want to get the first impressions from you of these individuals. So, if I say the name Stephen Fry things that jump to mind are National Treasure, things like that, there are a whole lot of words that I associate with him, and we want that here. Don't think too much about it, whatever comes out, if you're reacting to something you saw in the debate or your impression of that person generally and just note those down. When you're done go ahead and put a positive arrow if it’s a positive association, a downward arrow if it’s a negative one and then just an asterisk if it’s neutral, that way we know how those words are meaningful to you. We'll give you a few minutes to do that. You don't have to stop writing and look up but, just so you know, we took the pictures off the party websites. So these are the images that the parties want to put out about their leaders. So we thought rather than us picking pictures which might be... that’s what the websites were putting out there so that’s where we got them. You don't have to have an answer for every person. If there’s someone that you don't have an opinion about just say "don't know," "no opinion.” In 2010 for Nick Clegg people wrote, "who?” I'm sure you guys won't write that now. We’re going to go through them one by one actually when you're finished. Everyone has got the other side as well, the two, right just to make sure. Okay people, ready? Pens down, a classic sign that we’re ready to move on. What we’re going to do is go through each person, and do positives, neutrals and negatives. So, we’ll start with David Cameron because he's standard as the Prime Minister. In terms of positives, does anyone have any positive association... words that they associate with Cameron?

Stanley: The closest I got to a positive, and I make this a positive, some people don't, is that he's clearly an ambitious man, which I respect. Some people might think of it as a negative but I respect that.

I: We’ve had that in other ones as well, so that’s good. Neutrals?

Stanley: Two points that I put down as neutrals, which again some people consider positives or negatives. I said that he's smooth and he's clever. They can be positives or negatives, depending on how you look at it.

Noah: I would actually put clever on to that as well, I put it down here, clever in the way he answers his questions.

I: Negatives.12

Transcribed by: Just Write Secretarial Services, Belfast, Northern Ireland. Contact: [email protected]


Cardiff Pre FG 2

Olivia: I wrote down he's a prat.

Noah: He's economic driven and only has on his mind ideas over the deficit, economic plan and blaming old Labour. He fails to look forward. But Ed Miliband plan is more a case of "your government did this," not a case of "you may be able to do and you're actually putting better ideas forward than I am.” Everything seems to be focused to him, the ideas of the deficit, when most people don't know what the deficit is or what his economic plan is, and if we’re coming out of recession, obviously well and good, but if people aren't feeling the benefits of it on the ground then what is economic success? That’s my problem with him.

I: Stanley, what about you?

Stanley: The only negative I put, and this is possibly the wrong word, but I put "inexperienced.” Now, the man has been prime minister for 5 years so I don't mean inexperienced in office, but I have always felt about Cameron that he lacks life experience, and I think I suppose it ties in to a certain extent with the point that Noah was making, that I don't think he understands how ordinary people have to think, how they have to live. He has never run a business, he has never had what I would call a real job, and I think that that comes out in the things he does, including, as you say, his economic policies, possibly.

I: Olivia, I see you nodding.

Olivia: Yeah, absolutely. He worries me with all this talking about what they’re going to do. How are they going to fund it? Are they going to fund it by doing away with benefits? That worries me a great deal, not that I am on benefits. There are a lot of people I know that milk the system, but there are a hell of a lot of people who are going to be in dire straits if they cut back anymore. His policies frighten me.

MR: My biggest problem is that he says how many jobs he has created, he doesn't go into detail of what sort of jobs he has created. He's clever in the sense that he can put forward that "I have put this many jobs forward, I have made this many jobs.” How many of those jobs are zero hours contracts? He doesn't say. When he's on a TV debate and people hear him on about all these jobs coming up, coming out of recession, they think this guy's quite good. So he's very clever.

Olivia: They're all like that though, I think, aren't they? It’s the same with this business about health tourists. When I looked at it, health tourism in the NHS budget is 0.01%, it’s not costing the country a fortune, it’s wrong, but then they're playing to people's fears and I find it quite frightening, because where is it going to lead us, and once you've stopped blaming foreigners who is to blame then? Well, actually we’re to blame ourselves. But if they keep deflecting things because of all these people coming in new, it’s rubbish, it's absolute rubbish that people are coming in and taking jobs! I'm really concerned about the benefit situation. I know it needs sorting but he keeps cutting, if they keep on as they are there’s going to be a lot of problems.



Cardiff Pre FG 2

I: That’s a concern one of the other focus groups had too.

Noah: He just seems to be governed on how much GDP or things like this, or how fast we’ve grown as an economy but doesn't consider anything about people's life, about benefits, about how much people have... the rise of in work poverty at the same time as coming out of recession, the lack of training in jobs, all these things are coming at the same time, which nobody knows about, who's voting, most people don't know about, who’s voting

I: That was a great exchange; thank you guys.

Olivia: I really have got to endorse what you've said about this job creation. They keep claiming job creation. How many on a living wage, how many are full time, how many are permanent? We don't get any of that. People are saying "oh that’s really good, isn't it?”

I: Or they wonder, the same questions that you're wondering, which is what's underneath? Moving to Ed Miliband, we’re going to start with the positives? Positives for Ed? Stanley, I'll put you on the spot. If you don't have any, that’s okay.

Stanley: I regret to say that I don't have one single positive.

I: That's okay. Any positives?

Olivia: I think that he's improving in the way that he's coming across. He's coming across more as a leader, or a potential leader, because he was like 'all at sea' six weeks ago, and whether he has had a lot of coaching... that’s the same for some of the others, I have to say, particularly in the Leanne Wood, their demeanour and how they're presenting themselves, but that’s probably down to coaching.

Noah: I think the same. I think he's that calm. When he talks about under pressure things he sometimes diverts away. In the same way as Cameron does, they're similar, they can just divert the problem questions they get asked. Yeah, I think he's improved; that’s what I put down as well.

I: Any other positives, or just them? If you don't have any it’s all right, I just wanted to make sure I don't cut you off.

Noah: No

I: Neutrals?

Noah: This is kind of a negative/neutral but I just put the question "how does he think he can get the majority?" which I don't see why he keeps pushing everyone away, because without it then... I just don't get where he's trying to go with it all.

I: Other neutrals? Okay, negatives?



Cardiff Pre FG 2

Stanley: I have quite a list; sorry about this. First of all, the same thing I said about Cameron. I used the word inexperienced. I think the same thing applies equally to Miliband. He has lived in his own little political bubble all his life, never had a real job, I don't think he understands what real people are like either, he certainly doesn't understand business. I've also put some other words here which, again, I'm not certain if they're the right words. "Uncertain." I don't know really what he stands for. Is he Red Ed or is he going to be more pragmatic? I suppose it’s the general problem with the opposition leaders. I don't think he has really defined himself. I put two words here, "unreliable and disloyal," because frankly I think the way that he treated his elder brother was disgraceful and whatever he does after that... To my mind, a man who is not loyal to his own family is not to be relied on. That’s my own personal view. I would feel that about anybody, irrespective of what their politics are. I don't approve of what he did.

I: I appreciate that, thanks. Moving on to Nick Clegg, we’re going to start with the positives. I'll just hold a space open. Neutrals? Negatives?

Olivia: He's a liar.

Noah: Yes, that’s my first word.

Olivia: He let the students down, and you can't just turn up and say sorry. He committed to tuition fees and he sold them out. I have always voted Liberal Democrat and I will never vote while he's there. I feel so strongly that he let them down. They are our future.

I: Thank you for that. You also had liar?

Noah: Yes. I think my views are the same as every other student views at university now. It's quite 35:23

I: Stanley, how about you?

Stanley: I put another L word, I put 'lightweight.' I'm just not that impressed with him.

I: So moving on, next we’ve got Nicola Sturgeon. Positives?

Olivia: Strong woman.

Noah: Yeah, 'Powerful,' I put. She knows she holds power, she knows she holds the sway of things because she’s going to hold a big say over things, it looks like she going to have a big say, she comes across very impressive, she can stand up for herself and her country.

Olivia: Yeah, she’s strong, as you said. I'm not sure I know what she stands for, why she stands for taking Scotland out, which I don't agree with, but I still admire her. She comes across as confident and knows what she’s going for, committed to what she’s going for.

I: Thanks, Stanley what about you?



Cardiff Pre FG 2

Stanley: I just put the word here 'ambitious,' which again I think is a positive. I can see what she stands for, she has an agenda. I may not agree with her agenda but I can respect that she has her own agenda. I also put as neutrals, but again it could be positives or negatives, 'clever and ruthless.' I suppose you need that in a politician, and if I was a Scottish Nationalist I would be very pleased by her performance as leader.

Noah: I think she knows what she’s trying to do as well, she knows that if they do need X amount of seats then she’s going to be able to sit there and just take offers and if she wants a referendum again in X amount of years then she'll probably end up getting it.

I: Neutrals?

Stanley: Clever and ruthless, as I said.

I: Negatives?

Noah: No, I haven't got any down.

I: So, then Leanne Wood? Positives?

Olivia: I think that she’s improving, again back to that coaching business. She irritates me, her favourite word is austerity, she says it all the time and I'm not sure if the general public knows what she’s talking about. Initially I don't think that she understood what she was saying, she was saying the words, she'd been well coached. She knew what to say but she actually didn't understand it, she didn't come across... I thought 'if they start unpicking some of this...' But I think that she's got better. That may be in part due to Rhun ap Iorwerth, the AM for Anglesey, who was a journalist and an interviewer, and she certainly had coaching from SNP, obviously. So maybe she does understand more now but it was just like she was just saying the words.

Noah: Yeah. She doesn't come across to me as clever enough, but her ideas and someone who is passionate and wants more 38:12, and you can't really criticise that.

I: Any other positives?

MR: Positives?

I: Yes

Stanley: No

I: Then neutrals?

Noah: Oh sorry, I've done a negative... I just said a negative by accident

I: Okay, neutrals? And negatives?



Cardiff Pre FG 2

Stanley: I think she comes across as very shallow, especially when you put her next to her Scottish equivalent, Nicola. Indeed, this is the thing, here in Wales we do need a good strong opposition to Labour 38:44 on the Welsh Assembly, and when you compare to the Scottish Nationalists, who have really come from being well behind with the Welsh Nationalists were to be the governing party of Scotland have really established two party politics in this government, and here in Wales that hasn't happened and the reason is since Dafydd Whittal left us as leader of the party we've had a succession of weak leaders have applied, and I'm afraid poor old Leanne is in that category. I don't think she’s up for the job.

Olivia: I wonder if that reason we’re shallow is what I was thinking about, in that does she understand, because she doesn't lack passion or commitment but, I don't know which is, both are equally valid words but I was just wondering was it sort of then you were thinking...

Stanley: She’s not an intellectual heavyweight, is she?

Olivia: No.

Stanley: No. And Plaid have got some very, very bright people, like 39:42 William and that sort of people, and Dafydd Whittal, who I think is a first class man, but they are not the people who are leading Plaid. I'm not a Welsh Nationalist myself but I would like to see Plaid stronger and have a two party politics in the Welsh assembly.

I: Great exchange, thank you. Natalie Bennett, any positives? Neutrals?

Noah: I have a positive, yes. She has got some good ideas but whether she can put it into practice if she was ever to get into power, but obviously she’s not going to get into power, but if she’s ever going to put some of those ideas forward, probably not realistic but they're nice

Olivia: I'm sort of... I don't know where she is or where she’s coming from or who she is or... she doesn't inspire confidence in me. She’s sort of just there, makes up the numbers.

I: Those are the neutrals. The negatives? Is that more of a negative for you?

Olivia: I would say a neutral.

I: Okay. Negatives for Ms Bennett?

Stanley: I just put clueless. I don't know why on earth the Greens have her as their leader when they have Caroline Lucas, I just cannot understand how on earth...

Noah: She praises her every minute, doesn't she? She praises Caroline Lucas every opportunity as well. She praises Caroline Lucas, it's almost as if Caroline Lucas should be in that position.

Stanley: Everybody was saying ….



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Noah: She’s vague. She doesn't know where she comes from, I don't think. She studied three degrees in three different countries and in three totally different disciplines, and I think that comes across when she speaks, because she brings these different ideas together and she thinks that they can all match up together. She doesn't put anything into practise when she gets there. For some reason she’s getting a lot of support.

I: Lastly we’re going to come to Mr Farage. Any positives?

Stanley: Whether you agree with him or not, I think he's an honest man. I think he says what he thinks. You might not agree with what he thinks but of all the party leaders he sometimes makes a fool of himself by switching off his self censorship filter. Brain doesn't engage, doesn't stop the mouth working and he just says what he thinks. I have to say I find that refreshing even though I don't necessarily agree with him.

Noah: Whether it’s negative or not he's still known to get more people into politics.

Stanley: What was that?

Noah: More people have come into politics who wouldn't normally be into politics. If it wasn't for him people would say "oh, it's the same old... them two again.”

I: Stanley, you’ve a clogged ear or something...

Noah: I speak quite fast so I'll slow down

Stanley: No, it’s my fault entirely.

I: No, I encourage you, because the mike's over there and we want to make sure that we catch all the words. Do speak up so you can be heard.

Noah: He's just got a lot more people into politics who I think wouldn't normally discuss politics daily, it could even be in pub, like he always says. Certain people would discuss that sort of thing. I think he manages to get people talking.

Olivia: He is very savvy, this business of man of the people with his pint and his fag, and he's privately educated, the same as the rest.

Noah: The fact that he's been visiting building sites and certain areas, he knows who to target, he's clever.

Olivia: Yeah, if it’s not him he's got a good spin doctor, or campaign manager or whatever, because they really made him a man of the people, and he isn't.

Noah: And the areas he's targeting as well are reflective of the immigration levels in that place, 43:14 that, although building levels and ?? builders are seen on the news programmes and newspaper reports where he's targeted areas specifically because of the



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geographical diversity of the culture ??, if you know what I mean. What I'm trying to say is the different nationalities or whatever.

I: Migration patterns

Noah: Yeah, migration patterns and stuff, yeah.

I: Any Neutrals for Nigel ? And then negatives?

Stanley: In a way, his greatest asset is also his greatest disadvantage, in that he's a very awkward politician. If there was a spectrum of smoothness, there’s Cameron at the one end, or Blair if you prefer, the ultra smooth politicians, and Farage would be anti Cameron, anti Blair. Very, very awkward, and that has obviously cost him, the most obvious recent example being the leaders' debate when he starts insulting the audience, which is something that a professional politician never does. And I think that it made him look very bad, even though it turns out he may have been right, but that’s another story.

Noah: He has too many backward members in his party as well, and he always sometimes defends their comment too easy. He should just say no, don't just agree with it. Too many people have let the party down and then they come across as racist

I: Any other negatives?

Olivia: I find him quite frightening, the effect that he's having on ordinary people, and they think that he's one of them, and I think he's appealing to people's fears, with migration and other things, because people don't think it through.

Noah: A positive actually I should have mentioned. On European levels how many people come into the country, he's trying to tease it out of Miliband and Cameron to admit that by being in the EU we can't control our borders. They never admit that to normal people. I think on the second election he said, "how many people are we allowed in this country from the EU? Oh no, we can't control it." He's trying to tease out the reality out of it, which I like. People need to know the truth, if there’s going to be a referendum on Europe or not, they need to know whether we can control our borders if we’re in or out of the EU.

Stanley: Sorry, are we going to talk about immigration as a separate issue?

PARTY CONSIDER VOTING FOR HANDOUTI: We’re going to talk more about making calculations in terms of your...so what we're going to move onto next is parties that you have voted for in the past, or considered voting for, and then we’re going to Europe constituency dynamics, it’s less about policies and more about you, you guys...but I do appreciate if there’s a policy that is important to you that ??



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I2: Thank you very much for the input. One of the handouts that you have filled before we started was, of the seven parties that are on the list, have you considered voting for in the past or would you consider in the future. That’s the one that we’re going to discuss now so maybe you will want to take that sheet and keep that ready. That’s the one with the seven candidates on the list of which you had to decide if you would or had considered voting for them, either in the past or in the future. So maybe we can start with Noah? Of the seven on the list, how many have you considered voting for?

Noah: This is only the first time that I've been able to vote. Do you want me to go through the ones that I have said yes too?

I: Yes, so out of the seven would you consider voting for five or four or three or...?

Noah: I would consider voting for five parties. The two I wouldn't consider voting for are the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Potentially, see what happens, I may vote for the Labour [??] Party.

I: Potentially, yeah. So why not the Conservatives or the Lib Dems?

Noah: Because of their economic policy, which I can't... deceiving everyone, which I can't get over. Like I mentioned earlier, David Cameron, the economic juggling thing, nothing focuses on the people. It could change, I guess, but ideologically that is their focus and always has been. The Liberal Democrats, I don't know, maybe with a new leader, in 20 or 30 years time I may potentially change but I couldn't see it happening. The Green Party, not under this leader, but a few of their policies I like, whether they're realistic or not. The Labour party, who I think I'm going to vote now because I suppose I've become more leftist. Plaid, outside of Wales, anyone who's trying to get more support for Wales ... I'm actually from Cornwall so I can understand; some of the links people hold in Wales are very similar. The Scottish Nationalist party, obviously I can't really vote but I like their ideas, like I said. And UKIP, I don't know why I ticked yes at the moment.

I: And then, of course, one of the things, since you haven't voted before, is the difference between the assembly elections and the council elections. So I don't know, probably in 2016, I don't know if you have any thoughts about how you would perhaps vote at that level.

Noah: At a local level?

I: Yeah, would it be similar?

Noah: Yeah, I guess it depends where I'm at as well, because I can vote in my constituency in Cornwall or I can vote here. So at home I probably have more knowledge of the local leaders; here I don't as much. I've started looking into it recently obviously because of the election but prior I can't talk about the history of the local polling stations here.



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Olivia: Have you got a vote here and in Cornwall?

Noah: Yeah, but I haven't signed up properly to get my vote at home.

Olivia: I thought you only had one vote.

I: You do, but I think students can either choose to vote...

Olivia: Choose, so you don't get two, you just get one vote, but you have a choice.

Noah: Yeah. Home was really, really close. Last year it was 500, I think.

I: Olivia, what about you? How many parties did you...?

Olivia: I ticked three, yes.

I: Which were they?

Olivia: I always voted Liberal Democrats, I'm considering voting Labour this time, I haven't decided, and I would potentially vote for Plaid but not in the national elections, I don't see the point of voting for them in the UK elections. I can't ever see me voting for UKip because they really scare me. I don't see the point in voting for the Scottish National Party, the Green Party I don't understand what they... I understand some of the bits with energy or whatever, but I don't understand a lot of what they stand for. The Conservatives, at the moment they are the bad guys for me because they... I worry about people who are worse off than I am, people who are dubbed "the disabled," and if he says one more time "I understand because I had a disabled child," most people, I would say, with a disabled child get good service from the NHS. That is not a good example and I think it’s appalling that he uses it. I just feel worried that if they carry on what's going to happen to those people who haven't got wherewithal to vote, particularly in Wales where there’s going to be a new Social Services and Well Being Act has been brought in, and that’s going to be all about people sorting themselves out. It’s all about what you can do for yourself. It’s looking about what have you got, access to resources to sort out your own problems, which is a good thing, I'm not saying that it’s a bad thing, but most people if they have got the resources do it now. So I think that it’s going to be even harder for people who are disadvantaged.

I: Of the three parties that you choose, you mentioned that you wouldn't think of voting for Plaid in the national elections, so with Labour and Lib Debs, I think you choose, would that be fine in the council elections and local elections?

Olivia: Yeah. I would have to look at those issues here. Cardiff has got a bit of history with the local council, because they had a coalition and then they had the Liberal Democrats and now they've got Labour, and they can't agree. There are a lot of very strong local politicians who influence things their way, which would put me off voting for certain parties. But Cardiff is not straightforward, I would say.



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Stanley: Definitely not at the moment.

Olivia: That’s probably an understatement.

Stanley: I think at the moment we're ruled by Labour, and they're more or less falling apart, between factions on the county council, it’s a fair description of where we are at the moment.

Olivia: Yeah, they can't agree on things, and with all the cuts and trying to balance the books they'd really all want to pull together. I think that’s going to be interesting in the national, in the UK elections is, are we going to have to have people coming together more?

I2: Thank you. Stanley, what about you, in terms of your choice of parties?

Stanley: I interpreted your question wrongly, by not referring to this coming election, but generally.

I2: Yes, absolutely.

Stanley: The only two parties that I would never contemplate voting for are the Greens and the Labour Party, although I have voted, I must confess, for an individual Labour candidate because I thought that he was the best candidate for that particular job and I felt on that occasion that I had to, and if I had lived in Frank Field's constituency I might have voted for the Labour candidate there as well. But generally speaking, I would not vote for Green, I would not vote Labour.

I2: Is there any particular reason?

Stanley: Their values are not my values. I believe in individual freedom, I am a self-described libertarian, I do not believe in collectivism of any sort and I think that these two parties would be too totalitarian if they had their way. I am against their basic values. All the other parties, I voted for UKip in the European elections but I feel voting for them in this election would be a wasted vote. I am in a Tory/Labour marginal, I have to choose one of those parties and obviously I can't choose the Labour party so I am more or less constrained to vote for the Conservative party, despite my reservations about some of the things that they've done in government. Of the other parties, the Liberal Democrats, if I was in a Liberal Democrat/Labour margin I would vote Liberal Democrat because I think the coalition, although I don't agree with its values, I think it's stabilised the economy. I think Labour led us to utter disaster on the economy and will do so again very quickly, and I would like it to be kept out so I will vote for the Liberal Democrats if I was, say, in Bristol west, or possibly Cardiff central, I don't know. Plaid, I think, have taken the wrong direction, but nevertheless I'm not against them. There’s a sentimental appeal of Welsh Nationalism, which I sometimes feel myself. They have got some good people and if they had other leaders from a different orientation I might consider voting for them. The SNP obviously doesn't apply here but if I was in Scotland I would feel the same way as I do about Plaid, and I think possibly if I was in



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Scotland and they are the main opposition to the Labour party there I would probably vote SNP. Those are my reasons.

I2: Thank you very much; that was very helpful.

VOTING CONSIDERATIONSI: Actually your response Stanley, 55:28, and we can put that aside now. I think we’re done with paperwork for now. So you can set it all down now and relax more. The next question that we want to talk about is about the things that you're considering in terms of voting on May 7th. So you mentioned constraints, that you're stuck in between two parties, you’ve ruled one out, if I remember correctly so you kind of know how you're going to vote. It sounds like more leaning more towards the Conservatives because you don't see Labour as an option, and that kind of gave me the answer.

Stanley: Sorry about that.

I: No, you gave a model answer, it was great, it explains your values and how you see the situation and how those values are influencing your options. So we’re looking for that. What things are you guys considering being in, I guess we’ve the North, we’ve got the two central, and that’s me, can we just talk to Olivia and Noah about what are the things that you're thinking about now to cast your ballot on the 7th and the choices you have?

Olivia: I haven't actually looked at the whole list of candidates in my constituency. I feel it’s outrageous, and I am embarrassed at this is how I feel, but I do. Having watched Jenny Willet as a young mum... There was a programme about Westminster on the TV, I don't know if you saw it, and they followed her as a working mum.

I2: Inside the Commons.

Olivia: Inside the Commons, and she had children in the crèche and she picked them up and took them into her office, and then she had to go and vote so she left them to go and vote. What sort of mother is that? I had a real telling off with my son, I wouldn't say that about a father, but I can't help it, it’s how I feel. I have got some personal issues there, in that, whilst I want women in politics, I'm concerned, and it’s not my place to concerned because it’s her place because she’s the mother, so I'm really embarrassed that I have these discussions with myself, but I do. That’s nothing to do with policies, you see, that’s why I think it’s a bit pathetic as well. I definitely won't be voting Conservatives for the reasons that I've given, so I have a limited short list. I am still undecided, I need to do some more reading really, and as I said, some of the stuff the Liberals just put out, it's nothing to do with them

I: I think that you sum up your challenges very well in terms of being undecided at this point. Basically almost everybody in our focus groups in Cardiff North and Central are undecided,



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in the last group here too. So we’ve a lot more undecided applicants than people who know exactly how they are going to vote. So yeah, it’s pretty common.

Olivia: The other thing, my family is traditionally Liberals. My mother, she’s 93 and she has been a Liberal her whole life and was very active, so I was brought up looking at their values. But I think they're on the wane. Parties do ebb and flow, don't they, and I think this time it could be a wasted vote.

I: How about you Noah, you were indicating before that you thought you would lean labour, I wanted to know more about that.

Noah: On a national level I will be voting this seat Labour on the basis that I want a Labour government, but that won't be representative of the woman who is standing for Labour or any of her policies. However, on Monday in the university there’s a Question Time like event which has a member of each party in Wales, so Leanne Wood will be there and there will be representatives from each party and then I'll make up my mind if I should just stick with the ideological approach of anyone but Cameron, a Labour government or I would stick to another local level and say "she’s doing more for this." But yes, at the moment it would be a Labour government on the basis of what I believe.

I: Fantastic, great answers, thank you. Maybe we can do the quick question here on voting registration.

I2: One of the questions, so one of the people that we’re collaborating with is the Election Commission and they would like to know about voting registration and what people's experience with that. So, Noah, I think you've registered for the first time. What were your experiences on registration, how did you find out how you should register?

VOTER REGISTRATIONNoah: There was just a log on in on social media saying "register to vote by this date," so I followed the link and relatively straightforward, a couple of minutes, but also on the campus there was like an ice-cream van, there was people outside the ice cream van, I don't know who was funding this, but they were reminding everyone to vote. They had laptops there making people vote there and then, and if you did it you get a free ice cream. I don't know if it was an independent body or something thinking that the student vote is important for them. Maybe it was Labour....

I2: I think centrally they've paid to go and get people to. ...

Noah: It was working; loads of people signing up.

I2: So how did you register?

Noah: I had registered before that, but I still got a free ice cream.



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I2: Did you find the process easy?

Noah: The process was easy, yeah, just find the on screen instructions, yes or no, it was easy.

I2: Are you aware of any first time, or people that are registered to vote for first time? Just to see if you are aware of second hand experience of how it happened.

Noah: I think that it was fairly automatic for me, I don't know how it was for you, was it...

Olivia: I haven't done anything.

I2: This is a new system that they have in place for the first time for people who have not registered to vote.

Stanley: Can I make a dangerous and subversive comment that the Electoral Commission won't like at all?

I2: okay

Stanley: We never had problems voting in this country until they set up a separate bureaucracy to manage the elections. We used to have elections, went down to the local town hall and I can't recall there ever been any problems, certainly not around here. Now we have the Electoral Commission and we’ve all these problems about people not being able to vote, people not being registered all this sort of stuff. There was never a problem before the Electoral Commission.

Olivia: Previously, you had a vote if you were filled in a census. Was that how it was?

I2: No, not necessarily. I think the difference here is who can register you to vote, and previously one person in your household could register you to vote and if you were a student then the university could register you to vote because they are essentially the owners of the house, so to speak, because they own the accommodation. The new system is that you have to register to vote on your own. So individually, that’s the change, because they want to clamp down on possible voter fraud.

MR: In a contained area, the student population here, there’s like people coming up to your doors to remind you to vote, flyers through the letterbox every day. I came back from home at Easter and there was like 5 of the same thing through my door.

I: To register to vote?

MR: To register to vote, yeah.

Olivia: Anything from the parties?

MR: Loads, absolutely loads, just chunks of different posters, leaflets all over the floor.



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I: We will round up by doing a discussion about the debates, because obviously they have been a big part of the campaign so far and they've obviously had an impact on your perceptions. Then we’re going to wrap up by predictions of how the elections are going to turn out, and obviously we won't hold you to this, to your predictions when we see for the post elections. Just to get an idea of what you see as a political answer. Getting back to the debate, just first, do you think that debates themselves, like having debates during a campaign compared to before 2010, I think there was some discussion but live televised debates in the way that we’ve had them for two cycles now, are they a good idea or not? A clearer question, should they have debates in future elections, going forward, or should they get rid of debates entirely?

DEBATESStanley: I'm totally unimpressed with debates. I think there’s a trend in modern politics, no disrespect...

I: No I was going to say, presidentialisation of the thing comes up in other focus groups.

Stanley: Every idea in America seems to be coming over here. National Security advisors, D.A., everything seems to be coming over here, the Supreme Court we’ve got now. Frankly, what works for America doesn't necessarily work in this country. I think the debates themselves are being intellectually nebulous, I don't think we’ve learnt anything from them that we didn't know before, and I gather, those who've actually studied these in detail, they don't shift votes that much, because the last time we were polling, in 2010, the great hero of all the debates was Nick Clegg, yet in the end it didn't really alter the Liberal Democrat vote at all. So I think the big debates are a distraction, I would rather be talking about the issues, I'd rather be trying to inform the electorate more.

I: Should we get rid of them? Should they be got rid of?

Stanley: I wouldn't say aggressively get rid of them but I would not be unhappy to see them go; I don't think that the democratic process would be damaged if they did.

I: Okay. In fact we have a paper on the impact of the last debates from a qualitative perspective, but we won't give you the results now.

Noah: It just turns into a personality contest, doesn't it? For people who are undecided it turns into "he comes across as a better speaker." A lot of people can be trained in public speaking and not necessarily be able to put things through to their back benchers, or whatever. I also think the way the first election was handled was embarrassing. Some of the questions, "you come across is quite grumpy, don't you Ed?" was one of the questions...

I: The Paxman interview?



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Noah: What was he supposed to respond to being said you come across as quite grumpy? Who's going to get anything from that, to waste a question. Say, for example, I had a disabled member of my family and I heard a question being wasted on "you come across as quite grumpy," I would be so angry. Or if I had a child that was failing at school and they wasted a question on asking if he's grumpy as a person and not asking how my child is going to improve, or how I'm going to work in London when it’s costing me so much, or how I'm going to do something. There are some wasted stupid answers, and the way that they get the questions over to them, it's embarrassing. The final line, I think it was an attempt to trick Ed, he said "are you okay, Ed? Are you okay, Ed?" I think he was trying to make Ed appear as if he was off camera, and off link, and he said "I'm fine." Potentially he could have said, "thank £$%^& that's over!” He said it really slow, he got something out of it, and they've both got conservative backgrounds. That’s just my perception of it. I just find it quite embarrassing, the way he was dealt with.

I: But would you want to see them got rid off?

Noah: No, because they're interesting and it stimulates debate.

Olivia: I don't know. I started watching the first one; I was bored.

I: Was that the Paxman one or the 7 way?

Olivia: The 7 way. I'm like "what is this all about? I can't be listening to this." And I gave up. The other one, there was one this week, it was in the theatre. So I think it comes down to personalities and there’s no challenge, and there’s so much you can challenge in what they say, and we’ve had some of those discussions here about immigration or health and what have you, and again I would support Noah there saying, you know, some of the stuff they talk about, what's that about? I guess we all vote for what we think is best for us, at the end of the day. I think people do, either that you want...because you see the bigger picture so you want somebody that thinks like you do, or because you think that they can do something for you as an individual and I don't know what the debate added to that, but I think they're part of life that I can't see going.

I: Going back?

Olivia: Yeah, I can't see being done away with. So, I feel a bit... I don't think that’s a good reason to keep them but I don't know who's going to make that decision, and it’s so so much...I was so fed up with "are they going to happen? Who's going to be there? How many...?" It was like being in the playground. I weren't keen on the playground when I was there; I don't want to be there now.

Noah: To me, the last debate was the most revealing, I actually learnt stuff. I think 69:23 know a bit more about politics, I'm interested and I read about it and stuff. But I never knew the importance of defence spending and how much it cost and how much, potentially,



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we could be having if we didn't have certain missiles, and that came out in the election. I didn't even consider it, if that’s a possibility of securing more of our [??] support. So I did learn something from it. But I was watching it with a group of friends and we ended up discussing it and I thought that it was one of the biggest issues, which I didn't realise at all, I was clueless to the defence spending budget. So the way it was structured, it was like 5 questions, that was what the open debate was allowed, and you ended up almost signing a coalition pact before. So that one actually worked, it actually worked. People were discussing things, even though it was focused on why David Cameron wasn't there, but that was obviously going to happen.

I: I want to develop that, because there’s a theme that seems to be coming out of the discussions, which is viewers are actually quite thirsty for more policy debates; the content of the debate is quite lacking in policies. There was another person in Thursday night's focus group who mentioned this about Nicola's discussion on policy. She said "okay, I don't agree with her on the trident thing," but she then said "then if we get rid of trident then we have to deal with conventional weapons, and how..." So there would seem to be a real positive response to people giving actual policy specifics. So instead of maybe having an NHS debate, maybe have a discussion on a NHS policy and the parties perspective on the policies, not the whole NHS. Would that be something that you might find more interesting, if it was narrowed down to the kinds of actual big questions like, 'okay, are we going to fund trident, are we going to do this with privatisation in the NHS, or not?' And limit the leaders, instead of bringing in the past and that kind of stuff, to do more on comparison of the policies and the parties?

Olivia: That was something that I was going to do some looking at over the next couple of weeks, I was going to see if there was a website that gave me every party with, say, the top 3 points around each policy area, so that I can... I don't know why I compare it, like...

I: Of course when you’ve got 3 or 4 different parties to look up and keep track of, and now you’ve an option to actually vote for 3 or 4 parties, the more information...

Olivia: My son told me there is a website like that, that I could go and find.

I: Voter guides do exist, a lot of them...

Olivia: I've done some of these quizzes via social media where you answer questions and they tell you who you should vote for. You are a 'whatever' voter.

I: Stanley, you still say no; you're a bit on the fence.

Stanley: What I would like to see more talk of is values. I know this is very old fashioned, people say it's dogma, you're being dogmatic if you talk about values. But I want to know what makes these people tick. The actual individual policy promises don't matter that much. I think we all know, I think you're going to talk about this in a moment, we’re going to have



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a hung parliament, that’s almost certain, so the actual policy promises are not that important. Most of these policies are dead in the water before they, start and we know it. What I want to know is what are the values those people are going to be bringing into the coalition discussions that are going to follow the general election, because we’re not going to be able to control that process now, that’s going to be taken out of our hands. That’s going to be into the back rooms. I want to know the sort of people that are going into those back rooms, that’s my feeling. So values, not policies.

I: How about you, Noah?

Noah: I found that the last two debates wasted 20 minutes by having a minute opening statement and a minute closing statement, because actually it was the same each week. It was actually the same words were there. For UKIP it was Australians star point system, for Cameron it was the deficit and economic plan, for Labour it was making work pay, all these 73:11 to come up with everything. Everyone knows if you read one page of their manifesto or title you know what's coming up. I feel you need more of...I understand the values ideas as well, we definitely...for me, it would just be policies, general policies. I felt like I learnt so much from just hearing five different policies and different approaches to it, other than hearing "we want to do these blasé, empty rhetorical like things. What does make work pay mean? What does that even mean to normal people? How exactly are you going to do it? "We will raise the minimum wage by this," that sort of stuff, actual facts, pure facts is what I would prefer to hear.

I: That’s really helpful, thank you. If there are people who have benefitted from the debates, who do you think has benefited from the debates being held?

Stanley: Nicola Sturgeon, certainly. I think that everyone agrees that she was the star of all of the debates. Miliband, I think, has picked up a bit, because he went into the debates with low expectations and I think, you've said, he seems to have improved. Possibly he wasn't that bad to begin with. People had low expectations of him and he's done well out of the debates. So Sturgeon and Miliband have done well. Farage, I think, has strengthened his base with the debates, I don't think that he has converted anybody but he's certainly strengthened his base. So those are the ones that I would say has done well in the debates, I don't know.

Olivia: Leanne Woods calling out to Farage appealed to me and appealed to a lot of people I've spoken to, over the HIV issue. So people have really said good on her. I don't know how much good she did herself overall; she certainly did herself good in that single bit. I think you're right, I don't think Farage is particularly going for new people but strengthening where he is. Cameron wasn't...I didn't see the first, so I don't know.

Noah: He was there anyway...

Olivia: No, he wasn't there anyway. Was he not invited or...



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Noah: Well that was the big debate, whether he was invited or not, because it was called the Opposition, a debate of the opposition, but then Nick Clegg didn't turn up either.

I: They didn't want to have him in all the debates.

Olivia: No, he wasn't invited

Noah: No, but they were there, 74:51 each other. No one really understood who was invited and who wasn't invited. It was because of the make-up, he was never going to go anyway, even if he was invited.

Olivia: That's right, who knows?

Stanley: It is strange to have... the only Welsh politician on that stage representing Wales was the leader of the fourth party in Wales, in terms of popular support. You'd have to have the SNP there, because they're the leading party in Scotland, but you had 3 ladies who, more or less, have very broadly similar positions, Bennett, Sturgeon and Wood, and they were all saying more or less the same thing. That photograph of the three hugging together like the statue of the Three Graces, if you’ve ever seen it, that sums up that whole debate to me. It was surreal experience; I don't know what the reason behind it was.

Olivia: You said that you wanted to know about their values. I thought there were two good photographs from Thursday night that I saw on Twitter, the one where they were having the hug and Miliband was with them, and the other one was where Miliband was looking and Farage was on his own on the side on the summit line, but that was all about feeling, wasn't it, and I get the sense that there’s a lot more about feeling with women involved.

Stanley: That’s going to go into the negotiations after the election, of course. Personal relations matter a lot. The reason that we’ve got the coalition is frankly that Clegg and Cameron have similar backgrounds and similar attitudes. They socially get on well together, that’s quite clear. There was no link between Brown and Clegg so that’s the reason why you didn't see it. To a certain extent, it’s frustrating that we’re talking about voting; our votes, in the end, will not be as important as the social relationship between these people that we don't know.

Noah: There was a clear connection on Thursday that four out of the five on the stage all wanted Cameron out. Four out of the five did. There was a clear commitment by the three women and Miliband that we would work together. Sturgeon said that she was happy to work with anyone on my right hand side of me to get Cameron out. There was a total understanding that nobody wanted Cameron in government. UKip didn't agree with it because he knows that was his only chance of getting into a hung parliament would be the Conservatives. There's a Blue Kip thing...



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Stanley: We might have situation, and I hope that this isn't going on to your next question, where the Conservatives get most votes and might actually increase their seats, even if they did, which I don't think they are going to do, even if they did they still wouldn't be in government.

I: They have the disadvantage of the electoral constituency boundaries...

Noah: Also, could that happen in terms of Labour having two seats left, that Labour could get to 326 and Conservatives couldn't, then that would be fine, would it? Or does it have to be the party with the most amount of seats?

Stanley: No, it doesn't have to be.

I: After from the last time, the incumbent government gets an opportunity and then if that doesn't work... so Cameron will be given the first opportunity to form a government in event of a hung parliament.

Stanley: Theoretically Cameron could stagger on as a minority administration until a vote of confidence, but of course that’s the one term with this Fixed Term Act, because once a government is in place it’s not a simple majority on a vote of confidence that triggers an election, so we could end up with a permanent minority government, which is a. ..

I: Or if they can't form a coalition I think they have to dissolve and have another election in 21 days. so there’s this whole thing....

Noah: What would that change?

I: That would be it...so if no one can form, if it all just becomes unravelled they will have another election to get a clearer, a different, another result.

Noah: So you are going to vote for exactly the same things, the same people,...

Olivia: Yeah, and they try harder to make a coalition so that they can move forward.

Stanley: That’s the theory.

Olivia: That’s what you would expect them to do.

Stanley: I don't think that anyone thought through the Fixed Term Act.

Olivia: That was a peculiar thing.

Stanley: It's going to be interesting, I think the first victim of the Fixed Term Act might be Cameron himself.

Olivia: Because that sort of snuck in, didn't it, without too much....



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I: It stabilised the coalition.

Olivia: Yeah, 79:55 doing this and then it was sort of vague.

I: Getting back, so we’ve covered who...Noah, in terms of benefiting from the debate, do you think any of the leaders have benefited from the debates so far?

Noah: I agree, I think Sturgeon definitely has benefited, she comes across as strong. I think that Miliband has as well, he seems quite calm, he hasn't been caught out, and David Cameron, there must be a significant dent for not turning up.

I: Yeah, I've got hurt by the debates next, so we’ll go hurt by the debates after this. So benefits.

Noah: I don't know about Farage really, because the HIV thing, which is only picked up on Question Time, because Douglas Carswell, his chief guy, his dad is the chief pioneer in HIV research, and he couldn't answer the question so that must have dented the relations between them two, and obviously arguing back at the audience, so maybe he's dented his chances, because he had everything to win, didn't he really, he hasn't done it in the way he wanted to do. He had this expectation that he was going to come out as "man for the people" and change, but he didn't, I don't think.

I: So in terms of being hurt by the debate, do you think...

Noah: Maybe.

I: Anybody else, by the debates, just the idea of the debates or being in it or not being in it.

Noah: Cameron definitely for not being in it. It was a discussion about him there and he couldn't defend himself on Thursday because he wasn't there. Nick Clegg, obviously who did so well last year, 4 years or 5 years ago, he's never going to get to that standard, especially with what's happened in the last five years, and he wasn't there, he couldn't defend himself. There was a discussion behind his back, almost. I think Miliband realises now that he can form a coalition with the three women that are in with him. That’s clear, even if he defended it, he said " no, sorry I am not going into coalition with you," but he knows the offer is there now.

I: Perceptions of any of the leaders hurt by the debates?

Olivia: Only those not there.

Stanley: I'm not so certain about that. I think under the circumstances it might have been the right decision to do it. I think it was a no win situation, that particular debate, in the way it was set up. I think in a way Cameron is right, but to a certain extent, if you are the prime minister you should not get down and dirty with all the other party leaders, including the very minor ones. Staying away from the big presidential diva, that phrase again. I don't



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know, I think that might be Cameron's greatest asset overall. Those who watched the debate might disagree, but most people didn't watch the debate as Cameron wasn't there. So I don’t think it's hurt him that much. It might have been more a strategy.

Olivia: I haven't seen the viewing figures, what were they like?

I: I heard 6 million for the last one.

Olivia: How did that compare to the first one?

Noah: I'm surprised the seven leaders wasn't on the BBC. Surely it would have made sense to have seven leaders on the BBC, if it’s the British...

ELECTION OUTCOME PREDICTIONSI: So then we’re on the last bit, predictions.

I2: I think Stanley already has touched on some of that. So when you wake up on the 8th what do you predict the election result to be?

Olivia: I would say damn tired, because I would have stayed up to watch it.

Stanley: I think 98% certain, a hung parliament. I suspect the Conservatives might sneak just ahead on the popular vote, but because of what we’ve mentioned about the distribution of seats, Labour will probably be just about the largest party in terms of the number of seats. I think, almost certainly for all the reason we’ve said, the relationships and the fact that the three ladies won't have anything at all to do with the Conservatives, there will be a Labour government, I think 90%...

I: Would you put a few pounds on it?

Stanley: I have actually bet on elections on the past and I find that the bookies are a lot more accurate than the pollsters, and I think they will go along the same lines. So I am tempted to bet but I don't know if I would get good odds. 90% certain minority Labour government.

Noah: So when it comes up as a Labour minority government, does that mean that Labour come in as a coalition, in essence, or what?

I: Not necessarily.

Noah: When you say a Labour minority government does that...

Stanley: One option of course would be for the Liberals to go in with the Labour party, which the Cable faction in the Liberals would love to have done anyway. I've talked with my



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friends, who are Liberal Democrats, active Liberal Democrats, and they I think would actually like to go in with Cameron again, surprisingly, because they are pretty left wing, most of them. They feel if the Conservatives do have the more popular votes then their principles dictate that they ought to give the Conservatives the first chance of forming a government. I would be surprised if it turns up that way in practice. Again, it all depends on closed rooms that we’ll have no access to at all, personal relationships. The wild card of course there is that Clegg loses his seat in Sheffield, which they're saying he's going to do now, Cable then will almost certainly be active leader, Cable will make a deal with Miliband and then you’ll have a Lib-Lab coalition, possibly with the support from the Nationalists parties and the Greens

I2: Olivia, what do you think?

Olivia: My prediction for the thing is it’s all going to be a heck of a mess, and we're going to have weeks of all this mess, and all that in the media about who's doing what, who gone into this room....exactly what you've said, and it’s all outside our control so why are we voting? I still vote because I feel very strongly that people died for me to vote, but you do think, you know... I think it’s just going to be a mess, and I don't know if we’ve been in this sort of situation before. It's so clearly that it’s going to be such a mess.

Stanley: This is the problem, everyone is very excited about the election but on one expects to have a decisive result. The opinion polls, I am sure you know them better than I do, have been fairly solid since late last year. There's been no shift in the opinion polls at all.

I2: Little bumps

I: Little bumps, a margin of error. UKip has gone down slightly from its high of 20, I think they are 17/18/14, depending on the margin of error. They've been pretty stable.

I2: And the polls are tightened slightly as well, which is again with the margin of error as well.

Olivia: The negotiations, are they around policies and who's going to give what...I guess they're not always, and that’s worrying.

I: Any predictions?

Noah: I think similar. I think there will a Labour government but there will be a mess sorting it out. There seems to be, to me, there's a commitment to not get Cameron out of government and they're going to do that some way or another, and I think that will basically decide Miliband’s political career, whether he can do that. That was put forward by the women on Thursday, that if he can do this then they will have respect for him, and I think lot of the population will, those who are anti Cameron. For me, it’s confusing, all the minority coalition stuff, and I thought I had quite an understanding of it but it still doesn't make complete sense.



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I: You're not alone.

Stanley: I think we’ll have five years of uncertainty and then Boris in 2020.

Noah: I like some of the younger labour politicians, Chuka Ummuna and Andy Burnham, I think they have quite a nice future, that’s one of the reasons why I would vote for them as well for the future side of it.

I: I think from our side, one of the reasons we really wanted to get this grant, we worked very hard, applied many places and were turned down but finally got the victory, was because this is probably the most uncertain election, potentially in British history, since the universal suffrage, or even just male universal suffrage came in, because we've never, I mean you guys, have been in this territory before, which is what happens the day after, and it’s not just it will be a hung parliament, like it was in 2010, because of the SNP influence in Scotland, I think it is really vital that we’re recording your voices and the concerns that you’re having and these kinds of things for posterity, because people will, I think, want to go back and go "how are people even voting in this election when they have no idea what the outcome is going to be?"

Olivia: Of course the other concern is that if we’re feeling like crap, surely... I know they've got to be saying "I'm going to win," you've got to be seen to have belief in yourself but if they've not actually got it they must be thinking this through and thinking about what they're prepared to give up for power or whatever, they must be doing that now, because if they're not that’s even more worrying!

Noah: I think the 89:18 would get more votes by admitting that they're not going to get a majority government. ?? by political betting, it shows that there’s not going to be a majority government, it’s next to impossible, isn't it? I don't they only need 23 seats but the amount that they're forecasted to lose at the same time, surely if they said that we’re going to accept that we’ll probably have to go into partnership with another party, or two, people would start thinking actually I will do a tactical vote and not vote for the ?? so I can get someone else in, for example.

Olivia: I think politicians think it’s seen as a weakness if they're not, whereas I think it’s seen as a strength...

Noah: I think it's seen as a strength

Olivia: ... "Well, we’re not actually going to be able to do this on our own, who are we’re going to be able to...?" because I want to know, whoever I vote for, what they're going to be prepared to give up to get, you've got to give to get, haven't you?

Noah: Yes



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Olivia: So that’s something I want to know. I'm not going to know it because they're not saying publicly what they're prepared to do.

Noah: Plus Labour and SNP have so many conflicting views; one wants to keep the country together and the other one doesn't. But at the same time they both don't want what's happening in Scotland at the moment so they're both going to have to compromise. If it was on the table they could have said yes and it would have almost been game over. It was there and he said no, just because he thinks that he doesn't want to come across as weak to the rest of his party, that he can get the majority, and it’s impossible, next to impossible.

Olivia: My mother is 93 and she was saying that in the war they had a Rainbow Coalition where they all had to work together. Shouldn't we be looking at that? They've all got to work because we’ve to get this sorted, rather than being all there for number one.

I2: In Germany they have a Grand Coalition. You have the two major parties, the two major opposition parties who are in government

I: So Labour Conservative.

MR: It just would not just happen.

I: Well, I think in some policies they would actually have an easier time perhaps, but it’s just that rivalry, cat versus dog, brother versus sister...

Stanley: Politics in this country, as you’ve probably worked out by now, is 100% tribal, not as tribal as it used to be but it used to be that you were in one tribe or the other, you were born in that tribe and you voted that tribe all your life. There's some variation now in the sense that people are becoming a bit more consumer choice about their politics, but that’s still the dominant factor in this country. You see 91:41. There’s the problem around here, you can paint a ?? red and still get elected ?? and that has happened on several occasions. But it's a very powerful thing.

I: Identity and history, personal. I think that wraps it up.

I2: We have one more thing. I am going to get the envelopes with the money, so if you could just write your name and just sign to make sure for the university that I have given you the money.

I: Then you guys can be on your way. What we’ll do is, we’re in the process now, we’re trying to decide when to start scheduling the post election focus groups because of the question of "how long should we wait to see what happens?" But because we’re more interested in how people came to your decisions we’re probably going to have it closer. So what we'll do is we’ll send you guys out an invitation and you’ll have first refusal for the slots, and hopefully the date and time we’ll work out anyway, and then we get enough people who we talked to before. But you should expect an email from us, probably in the



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next week. We'll at least get the date and the times, and then we’ll probably be in a room like this again. We hope that you’ve had enough of a positive experience to do it again.

Stanley: I enjoyed myself immensely; thank you very much.

Olivia: Fancy getting paid for talking.

Stanley: I do this at the pub every night for free. [laughter] Thank you guys very much; it has been fascinating.



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wintersresearch.files.wordpress.com · Web viewOlivia: I am fed up with it all; I’ll be glad when it’s over. I think it’s gone quite negative, very much saying bad things