WAS*ISWAS*ISWAS*ISWAS*IS Summer WAS * IS

weather & society * integrated studiesChanging from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated weather studies

Eve Gruntfest & Julie Demuth July 13-21, 2006 Boulder, CO

Welcome to Summer Camp for Smart Kids

Getting to Summer WAS*IS

1. Eve & Julie’s career journeys from grad student to WAS*ISWAS*IS crusaders

2. Justification for WAS*IS

3. Barriers we will overcome

4. WAS*IS measures of success

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Eve’s role – applied geographer

• Social scientist in world of engineers & physical scientists

• Career based on Big Thompson Flood

• Focus: Flash floods & warning systems

The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado July 31, 1976 -- we’re going on Tuesday!

• 140 lives lost - 35 miles northwest of Boulder

• Studied the behaviors that night – Who lived?– Who died?– Led to detection &

response systems

30 years later

• Signs

• FLASH FLOODS are recognized as different from slow rise floods

• Real- time detection, some response

More federal agencies do flood “warning” Vulnerability increases

2006• National Weather

Service overpromises

• Dams/infrastructure aging

• Development pressure on open space

The Big Thompson Flood

New focus for next generation of policy makers & scientists involved in flood mitigation – especially in Colorado

25 years as geography professor - Great opportunities - local, national, global

• Multi-disciplinary Partners- hydrologists, meteorologists

• Active involvement with User Groups– National Hydrologic Warning Council– Association of State Floodplain Managers– Cooperative Program on Operational

Meteorology, Education & Training (COMET)– NATO conference, Work in Australia, India,

France, Italy, England

• National Academy of Sciences Committees

Julie’s background

• M.S. in atmospheric research from Colorado State U.– Remote sensing of tropical cyclones

• Science policy at National Research Council– Program officer with Board on

Atmospheric Sciences & Climate running congressionally mandated & agency-requested studies

• Interest in societal impacts … WAS*IS!

Integrate weather & social science to empower practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders to forge new relationships & to use new tools for more effective socio-economic applications & evaluations of weather products.

What is WAS*IS?

• Tools & concepts – communication, forecasting, GIS, qualitative research, decision making, economics, vulnerability, verification

• Skills – initiating & building relationships, overcoming barriers

Capacity building – create a Capacity building – create a community for community for

lifelong collaboration & support!lifelong collaboration & support!

Why WAS*IS?

• How to integrate (not add) social science into meteorology?– Avoiding another Hurricane Katrina is

NOT just about improving the models!!

• How to grow a community of people passionate about & dedicated to this?

Crucial to recognizing & addressing societal impacts in a real, sustained

way

.

.

.

Why WAS*IS now?

• Growing recognition that (meteorology + social science) > sum of its parts!

Vision for WAS*IS to be… Culture changing!

Empowering! Life changing!

Lifelong, team building!

WAS*IS Justification• Making Culture Change happen -

– Now & sustainably

• B I G WAS*IS idea lists to GROW By next Friday

• Large undisputable list of possibilities & priorities

We have idealistic positive outlooks

WAS*IS is part of a movement -- Moving beyond rhetoric to action

• Research Experience for Undergraduates – hazard social science

• Bill Hooke’s American Meteorological Society policy program

The WAS*IS workshops

• Began as a one-time adventure • Grew into 3 workshops (so far) &

evolved– Original 2-part workshop in Boulder

(November 2005 & March 2006)– Condensed 3-day workshop in

Norman (April 2006)

– Summer WAS*ISers WELCOME to the WAS*IS family !!!!

.

.

.

Over 85

WAS * ISers!

“Tangible” accomplishments

• In-person interviews & development of on-line survey to elicit first responders’ weather needs & understanding

• Interdisciplinary development of conceptual model on communication & propagation of forecast uncertainty

• Development of forecast confidence scale on weather blog (www.capitalweather.com/)

• Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article

• WAS*IS sessions at conferences – DEADLINe sOON!• WxSoc newsgroup – register at

http://www.sip.ucar.edu/wxsoc.jsp

You are the ELITE!ELITE!

• More than 60 applications – 31 are here!

• Senior officials, Grad students • Practitioners, Researchers• Consultants, Federal officials

Summer WAS*IS particularities• More social scientists• More senior participants • Build on earlier workshop lessons

• Take advantage of meals, breaks to interact

with everyone ... it’s your chance to build your networks

• More open time – posing questions for discussion, brainstorming about problems and possibilities, new directives and initiatives

– Invent creative, previously unimagined new tools, case studies, & implementation strategies

– Life-long commitment from many vantage points – researchers, practitioners, various backgrounds, public & private

Some WAS*IS long-term possibilities – by next FRIDAY you ADD & CONTRIBUTE to list

• Summer 2007 workshop• Applications for WAS*IS beyond weather• Short course for AMS, for National Weather Service (in

person or distance learning)• WAS*IS for introducing meteorology to social scientists • Development of edited collection &/or book proposal • Ongoing annual WAS * IS• Shorter, more focused, courses (e.g., qualitative research

methods)• Advanced WAS*ISes• Development of Capstone course for meteorology students

at University of Oklahoma• Funding to support WAS*IS research & applications

Fort Collins & Big Thompson Canyon field trip & National Weather Service forecast office

New modelGina will talk about this

Highlights: Distinguished presenters

• Drobot, Joys of collaboration & motivations for people to drive through floodsMorss, Problem definitions & end-to-end-to-end process

• Wilhelmi, GIS vulnerability exercise• Lazo, Overview of weathery economic case

studies • Hayden & Pulwarty, interactions with

Climate & Health workshop Thursday

Pay close attention to substance & style! What messages get across & how

Less blah blah, more interactions

Drobot, Hayden, Gruntfest, Barnes -Successful interdisciplinary collaboration as a result of WAS*IS I

• Morss & Hayden - Qualitative research

Recognition & highlighting WAS*IS talent & research

i.e. Rebecca Morss’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society articles on problem definition & end-to-end-to-end process

New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls

Event followed warning

as specified

Event occurred but was

less severe than

warning

Event occurred but was

more severe than

warning

Warning was

issued but

event did not occur

Warning was not issued

but event

occurred

Connecticut False

Evacuation

December 2004 Tsunami

Hurricanes Fran & Bertha

False Alarm

Perfect WarningUnwarned

Event

Red River Flood 1997

1999 Oklahoma Tornados

Model developed by your colleague! Lindsey Barnes 2004

How much time are people in the U.S. under tornado warnings?

How much does tornado warning lead time costs each person in the U.S.?

WE NEED TO DEVELOP NEW MEANINGFUL USEFUL

METRICS

(master’s work by Somer Erickson -- U. Oklahoma)

Master’s thesis of Somer Erickson:

SUMMER WAS*IS groundrules …• New partners --

unknown territory!• NEW parameters &

vocabularies • ACTIVE &

RESPECTFUL listening & talking

• No acronyms• All ideas are welcome AGENDA more open to allow SUMMER WAS*IS identities to emerge & develop for sustainable activities after our summer camp for smart kids ends

BE BRAVE

Seven barriers WAS*ISers confront & overcome

1. POWERlessness: I want to do it but I don’t know how

2. Social science methods are a mystery

3. Surveys are not encouraged

4. Disciplinary blinders -“I’m not a meteorologist, I’m an engineer” & vice versa

5. I can’t do it right so I won’t do it at all – Need for “Satisficing”!

6. It’s not in my job description

7. Old-fashioned metrics - why are forecasts valuable now?

------Perceive yourself as a charismatic policy entrepreneur

Barriers WAS*ISers confront & overcome

SUMMER WAS*IS succeeds when we see • New effective methods• New experiments – move from discipline

stovepipes– Specifically how do we bring social science

into existing programs & research efforts & in sustainable ways -- NOW not sometime

– Tired of going to workshops where NOTHING lasts- - -

– WAS*ISers… it’s up to YOU

Some SUMMER WAS*IS measures of success -- Toward culture change

1. A new community of scholars & practitioners – use each other’s materials! - ideas for presentations, publications, proposals

2. Examples of new alliances/removed barriers

3. Practical new & tried methods

Launching SUMMER WAS*IS – R E C A P

• One full week workshop

• Commitment to Change!

• The BEST & the BRIGHTEST

MODEST GOAL –

CHANGING the culture from WASWAS to IS

Remember Margaret Mead’s words:

Never doubt that a small, group of thoughtful, committed group* can

change the world.

Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.

(* of WAS*ISers)

Who or what warning agency was most

credible during the 1993 Midwestern

U.S. floods?

End users 1993W A S

End users 2006still WAS!

What did the most influential players look like

in meteorology prior to 2006 WAS*IS?

WAS * ISers are NOT the same old guys with new toys

The new fiesta – SUMMER WAS * ISers!

Fairy tale comes true - Thanks to

US Weather Research ProgramThe National Oceanic &

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research

Linda Mearns, Institute for the Study of Society & the Environment (ISSE) &

JEFF LAZO & the Societal Impacts Program (SIP)

After Big Thompson, 30 years of being

• Frustrated at being a social science ADD ON – (religious figure – good to

hear from once a year or so) but … no enduring impacts

• Left out of major scientific initiatives

• Being encouraged but kept separate & unequal

If only we had more WAS*ISerswith us on our journeys!!!

Burrell & Eve go to grad school together & many years later to Australia & Slovenia & are co-authors

If you have always done it that way, it is probably

wrong. -- Charles Kettering

WAS*ISWAS*ISWAS*ISWAS*IS CULTURE CHANGE

weather & society * integrated workshopsChanging from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated weather studies

Now, let’s get to work