Dr. Eve Gruntfest SSWIM Advisory Council Norman, OK November 16, 2009 Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & NOAA @ The National Weather Center

Dr. Eve Gruntfest

SSWIM Advisory Council Norman, OK November 16, 2009

Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & NOAA

@ The National Weather Center

2008-2009 Our First Years – Accomplishments

Bringing you up to date Launching projects, Writing proposals, Getting the word out – SSWIM definition

and action

2010-2011 From now on - Next steps Publications, dissertations, research, new hires

2012 – beyond Longer-term prospects SSWIM identity (faculty positions?) More work between campus departments & NWC New interdisciplinary programs?

Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Outline

Importance of social science to weather & climate research and applications recognized locally & nationally Great strides since 3/06 Norman WAS*IS (Weather & Society *

Integrated Studies) NOAA & OU visionaries move to weave in social science 11/07

Collaboration between NOAA & OU NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory OU NOAA Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological‐ Studies OU Vice President for Research OU College of Atmospheric & Geographic Sciences OU Center for Spatial Analysis

Annual report submitted 6/09, update submitted 9/09

SSWIM history – launched May 20083 year initial funding


Vision Collaborative research & partnerships between the

social sciences & meteorology, climatology, & hydrology to enhance societal relevance of research & practice & reduce risks from atmospheric & other hazards

Mission Creatively & sustainably weave social science concepts &

methodologies into the fabric of weather & climate research & practice through academic & professional activities locally, nationally & globally

SSWIM www.sswim.orgSocial Science Woven into Meteorology


http://www.sswim.org/

SSWIM’s three goals

1. To weave social science into the activities of the National Weather Center & elsewhere – not an “add –on”

2. To build a reputation as a center of social science research & practice in weather & climate work

3. To revolutionize the research to operations equation – so it’s no longer top-down & all partners play equal roles – decision-makers, forecasters, product designers and researchers

Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

SSWIM’s objectives are innovative research & capacity building

… by increasing the appreciation of the value of qualitative as well as quantitative approaches including archival, ethnographic, & participatory methods

… through partnerships with public, private, & academic sectors, including students, practitioners, & policymakers across the spectrum of stakeholders


SSWIM personnel – recruited to OU

Director Eve Gruntfest (25%) Post-doctoral research scientist (100%)

Dr. Heather Lazrus Environmental Anthropologist 2/09 2 Ph.D. social science graduate students

Gina Eosco Communication (25%) 8/08 Monica Zappa Geographer (50% ) 8/09


WAS*ISWAS*ISweather & society * integrated studies

CULTURE CHANGE

All WAS * ISers

Applied geographer > 30 Year career as “socio /hydro /meteor - ologist!” Research: Flash floods & short-fuse warning systems Inventor of the WAS * IS movement (Weather & Society *

Integrated Studies)

Dr. Eve Gruntfest SSWIM director


Publications Articles published and in revision Book proposal to Wiley Publishers – all positive reviews

Proposals NOAA Global Systems Division - $70,000 funded NSF Science & Technology Center - $350,000 (U. Iowa) declined OU Stimulus funds 2 proposals declined NOAA National Tsunami Mitigation program/StormReady evaluation - $500,000 declined NSF - Does WRF Downscaling Improve the GEFS Ensemble? $400,000 submitted NOAA Central Regional Team - $15,000 funded

Dr. Eve Gruntfest SSWIM highlightsRepresenting SSWIM, OU & NWC


Dr. Eve Gruntfest SSWIM highlightsRepresenting SSWIM, OU & NWC

Appointed adjunct faculty member OU Geography Serving on graduate student committees: Randy Peppler, Rachel Butterworth, Somer

Erickson Webpage, one-pager, roadmap, strategic plan Dozens of presentations including invited keynote speaker

Water & Society * Integrated Studies Kansas City, MO 8/09 International Flash Flood Lab San Marcos, TX 10/09

U. of N. Florida Jacksonville, FL 11/09 including talks to faculty, National Weather Service, City of Jacksonville

U. of California Davis, CA 12/09 Geography Department Winner of American Meteorological Society Kenneth E. Spengler award 1/09


Dr. Heather LazrusSSWIM Deputy DirectorPost-doctoral research associate

Dissertation - Perceptions of climate change & governance of vulnerability in Tuvalu, South Pacific Local observations of environmental change Cultural & historically contingent responses to

climate change Research with NOAA Fisheries

Impact of policy & environmental changes in Alaska & Pacific Northwest fisheries

Post-doctoral research Atmospheric hazards, vulnerability, warning

systems Pacific Islands, New Zealand, Oklahoma, Alaska


Dr. Heather Lazrus SSWIM highlights

American Meteorological Society Summer Policy Colloquium

Invited to Munich to help coordinate summer climate adaptation workshop

Funded proposal with Geological & Nuclear Sciences New Zealand

Invited participant in two post disaster assessments Mt. Redoubt Alaska Volcanic Eruption, National Weather Service

2/09 Samoa Tsunami Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

11/09 Funded collaboration with M. Shafer & SCIPP on

Drought-Ready communities project National Weather Association Societal Impacts Board

member


Gina Eosco SSWIM graduate student

2nd year Ph.D. student in Communication at OU

Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society

M.A in communication Cornell University Interviewing forecasters, government officials & public(s) about their

interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the hurricane track graphic: cone of uncertainty


Gina Eosco 11/09 highlights

Analyzing data from summer 2009 interviews in NC, FL, LA, & NYDeveloping dissertation proposal Manuscript submitted to Weather Climate & Society

Numerous presentationsSociety for Risk Analysis 2008Integrated warning team meetings – Kansas City, OmahaMOLA, Climate study group, WAS * IS


Tuesday 8pm W E

N

S

LISTENTO

YOUREMERGENCYMANAGERS

Monica Zappa SSWIM graduate student (paid by new funds)

• 1st year Ph.D. student in Geography at OU• B.S. in Meteorology• M.S. in Geography University of Northern Illinois

“Assessing Human Vulnerability to Hurricanes in Bluefields, Nicaragua”


Monica Zappa 11/09 highlights Interviewing 8 “partners” to learn preferences for next generation warning tools & integrating their views into workshop agenda Developing graphics for changing Research-to-Operations dynamic

Changing the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings

PublicsPublicsWeather

Forecasters

Media

Emergency Managers & 1st Responders

6

Developers

Researchers


Temporal, spatial, & probabilistic information in weather forecasting & warning processes & decision-making

Storm Motion

11:02-11:20

11:50-12:20

11:12-11:43

11:05-11:35

11:00:11:21

10:55-11:1511:02-11:35

11:36-12:23

11:46-12:18

11:45-12:21

11:55-12:25

11:49-12:28

11:51-12:26

11:40-12:27

11:45-12:20

12:29-12:48

12:26-12:40

12:28-12:50

12:27-12:51

12:28-12:48

12:29-12:48

Current timeWarnings must follow the storm– too much confusion

Time Scale

0 km

100 Km

1000 km

100 Km

1000 km

6Jan 31

5 4 3 2 1Feb 1 Feb 2 Feb

3Feb 4 Feb 5

First outlook issued

1st watch issued (2pm)

2nd watch issued (3pm)

1st warning issued 9pm

Nashville sirens sounded

13 fatalities44 injuries Near Lafayette, TN

Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials

Hospitals, Schools, Events?

26 tornado warnings issued8 severe storm warnings

Geographic space scales: Regional, State, Local

10 Km

10 Km

Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made and by whom

Building SSWIM capacity: Gruntfest, Lazrus, Eosco & Zappa

Hosting SSWIM brownbagsParticipating in weekly Hazardous Weather Testbed

brownbagsHosting visitors – K. Blumenfeld, I. Ruin, C. LutoffTaking class in visual analytics Fall 09Presenting at Central Region Meteorologists-in-Charge

meeting in Norman 12/09Active mentoring of many excellent students contacting

us from all over who want to work on social science & weather & climate – many FRIENDS of SSWIM


Workshops organized & held

Led Advanced WAS * IS with Hazardous Weather Testbed Norman 9/08

Co-sponsored NexGen Warning Services Workshop Norman 12/08

Co-sponsored Consideration of Future Weather Workforce with K-20 Center Norman 12/08

Led Integrated Hazard Information Services Workshop with Hazardous Weather Testbed & Global Systems Division Boulder 10/09


Active SSWIM involvement

Work with K. Scharfenberg & J. Ferree to provide stakeholder feedback regarding new watch, warning, & advisory visual for display on weather.gov. Reducing # of colors from 150 to five

Work with J. Ferree Changing NWS Call to Action statements for tornadoes

Work with D. Berkowitz et al Changing NWS Radar display Analyze “customer” comments

Work with J.J. Gourley & K. Ortega Adding social science to SHAVE studies for hail and flash floods

It’s not enough to talk to social scientists – research must be done to address these questions


Social science being woven in

National Weather Service “training” Updating Advanced Warning

Operations course lectures SSWIM incorporated into all

NWS orientation classes

Social science graduate student as key component of planned Warn-on-Forecast effort with D. Stensrud


Wider academic communityattractive to existing, new, & visiting faculty & students

Wider weather & climatecommunity practitioners, researchers, students

SSWIM • Collaborate• Facilitate collaborations• Training component• Intellectual home mentor students

OU & SSWIM • Disciplines• Methods• Research themes

OU Departments, NOAA Labs & others


We are the GO TO group for social science in meteorology inside & outside of National Weather Center

We have a growing footprint in meteorology, climatology & hydrology

SSWIM Summary – Proud of our accomplishments

SSWIM has global identity as leader . in new movement We have a firm platform with high visibility



SSWIM Next steps

Developing protocol for effectively weaving in social science - SSWIM operation and budget guidelines

Emphasizing publications & dissertation(s) development

Funded collaboration with Hazardous Weather Testbed and Global Systems DivisionNew Grad Research assistants Liaison with hazardous weather testbed (SSWIM $) Liaison with warn-on-forecast project (w. D. Stensrud) (new $) Liaison with flash flood group (Hong, Gourley) (new $)

Some SSWIM challenges

Getting launched involves time consuming appreciation of new cultures

and understanding of social science

Heather builds her research career & builds program with weather – climate & anthropology many new opportunities in new field of climate adaption

Unrealistic to have part - time director


Demand for SSWIM collaboration exceeds current capacity: More possibilities thanSSWIM 2.0 FTE can accommodate

CI-FLOW National Severe Storms Lab project w/ Van Cooten

Hurricane simulation project w/ Warning Decision Training Branch & D. Morris

Survey of NSSL seminar preferences

New interdisciplinary Ph.D. programs in weather &/or climate

Proper program evaluation (e.g. for projects mentioned earlier on new web products, OU Political Science?)


SSWIM longer term plans?

Building new OU graduate and/or undergraduate programs (WAS * IS for undergrad meteorology students?)

Relationship with WAS * IS movement?We are new entity – forging new paths - Model

ourselves like ????? Writing major proposals – ourselves and with others

Size? Governance?



SSWIM Steering CommitteeJohn Ferree National Weather Service

J.J. Gourley National Severe Storms Lab – HydrologyKevin Kloesel Dean’s office

Kristin Kuhlman CIMMS & National Severe Storms Lab

Randy Peppler CIMMS

Russ Schneider Storm Prediction Center

Mark Shafer Southern Climate Impacts Planning ProjectPaul Spicer Center for Applied Social ResearchAondover Tarhule OU Geography

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration OU Vice President for Research NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological

Studies OU College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences OU Center for Spatial Analysis

Thanks to SSWIM partners


CENTER for APPLIED SOCIAL RESEARCH “Social Science Innovations in the Public Interest”

cimms

SSWIM Advisory Council

D I S C U S S I O N

Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & NOAA

@ The National Weather Center


Documents

Dr. Eve Gruntfest SSWIM Advisory Council Norman, OK November 16, 2009 Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & NOAA @ The National Weather Center