Eve Gruntfest [email protected] Norman, OK September 15,2008 Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm Warnings: A collaboration between stakeholders, the National

Eve Gruntfest [email protected], OK September 15,2008

Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm Warnings:

A collaboration between stakeholders, the National Weather Service & the

Hazardous Weather Testbed

Motivation

Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next generation forecasting tools – better ways to communicate what we know in more sophisticated ways

WAS way – developing with little interaction with folks outside the lab

IS way – bring in forecasters, emergency managers, private sector to assure more socially relevant new tools

Participants

• Forecasters – representing a variety of geographic regions

• Emergency managers – local & federal agencies represented

• Private sector representatives moving in tandem with government partners

• Researchers – geographers, anthropologist with relevant expertise

• Many National Weather Center folks – from labs, grad students

• Others who want to see how this experiment develops - National Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere), NOAA research folks

Cross section of users - WAS * ISers & non WAS * ISers

What we know about warnings – Public response components

Hear/receive

Understand

Believe

Personalize

Decide to act

Respond

The warning process is complexWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

A flash flood warning indicates a more serious threat than a flash flood watch

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Agree Disagree

92%

8%

n=1031

I take flash flood warnings seriously

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Agree Disagree

n=1017

92%

8%

False alarm questions: Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls

N= 1047

78%

22%

0%10%20%

30%40%50%60%70%

80%90%

100%

Agree Disagree

Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding

N = 1031

86%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Agree Disagree

Warning project findings

•Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized

•The weather research community has not focused on the individual needs of specific user communities

WAS*ISWAS*ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

New culture change initiativeNew culture change initiativesince 2005since 2005

WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues

“I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts BUT…

I don’t know how & I don’t know anyone else who

does this kind of work”

To change the weather enterprise so that social science is integrated into meteorological research & practice in comprehensive & sustained ways

Weather & Society * Integrated Weather & Society * Integrated StudiesStudies Weather & Society * Integrated Weather & Society * Integrated StudiesStudies

What is WAS*IS?

1. Building an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders -- from the grassroots up --who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science

Mostly early career folks!Capacity building –- creating Capacity building –- creating

a community for lifelong a community for lifelong collaboration & supportcollaboration & support

What is WAS*IS?

2. Providing opportunity to learn & examine ideas, methods, & examples related to integrated weather-society work

• Tools – GIS, surveys, qualitative methods

• Concepts – initiating & building relationships, many publics, end-to-end-to-end

• Topics – risk communication, communicating uncertainty, vulnerability

The WAS*IS movement

Originally envisioned as only 1 workshop

6 workshops so far Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (November

2005 & March 2006) Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) 2006 Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) Australia WAS*IS (January-February 2007) 2007 Summer WAS*IS (July 2007) Summer 2008 WAS*IS held August 8-15

Each workshop had a distinct character with common mission - Grand total of 172 WAS*ISers

Each workshop had a distinct character with common mission - Grand total of 172 WAS*ISers

THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAYRecognizing WAS*ISWAS*ISers’ talent & research--this is just a small sample

Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric Research Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society •problem definition •social science research agendas & •end-to-end-to-end process

Local government

agencies (e.g., floodplain management)

End-to-End-to-End Researchers & Decision-Makers

Professional associations

Private engineering consultants

Private land developers

Public (e.g., homeowners)

Private businesses

Local government

elected officials

State & regional governments

Federal government

Researchers

Morss, R. E., Ralph, F. M., 2007 Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency manager during CALJET and PACJET-2001 Weather and Forecasting 22 doi: 10.1175/WAF1001.1, 539-555

Morss, R. E., 2005 Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 181-191.

Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance --Provide what public needs/wants

Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls

Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms and Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. Weather and Forecasting 22, 1140-1147

Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise

with emphases onBetter communication More geographic specificityReduced confusionPartnership opportunities

Kevin Barjenbruch-WCM Salt Lake

MelissaTuttle Carr-The WeatherChannel

Considering social impacts in forecasts

Types of questions to appreciate

Who will be impacted?

Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching, getting married?

What has happened up to this point? Have there already been fatalities?

What are the TV stations saying?

Have earlier storms been “missed” ?

Craig Schmidt, Division Chief, Western Region

Committed to Integrating societalImpacts into National Weather Service

Extreme speed of watershed responses

Extremely short lead-time for

warnings

Isabelle Ruin - National Center for Atmospheric Research Post- doc: Human exposure during flash flood -- New time/space analysis

New attention to weather & vulnerability

Developing a cold warning system for livestock

Tanja FransenNational WeatherService, Glasgow, MT

Karen Pennesi – Anthropologist - U of Western Ontario - Public perceptions of rain prophets & the Federal Weather Service in Brazil

Predictions based on observations of insects, animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, & other natural phenomena

Pennesi K (2007) Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 88, 7, 1033-1044

Randy Peppler – Leading efforts at U of Oklahoma in cultural studies of weather

Geography dissertation topic

Native American perceptions of weather information & how their stories change with migrations to different environments

Interdisciplinary doctoral committees

@ The NationalWeather Center

SSWIM TeamUniversity of Oklahoma

Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

Funding ~50% NOAA & 50% U of OklahomaThree main goals

1. To recognize & develop the existing social science activities at the National Weather Center

2. To build a strong integrated community of practitioners, researchers, & others to coordinate new projects & proposals that weave social science into the fabric of the National Weather Center

3. To assess the viability & interest in a new interdisciplinary Ph.D. program at the University of Oklahoma focused on the societal impacts of weather & climate change

Focus on the willing – no one being dragged into these new projects

26

Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

3 year effort - personnel

Dr. Eve Gruntfest geographer with 30 years experience as social scientist working with meteorologists

2 Ph.D. students working on interdisciplinary degrees - Dedicated to integrating social science into National Weather Center

1 full time Post-doc - Poised to take leadership of integrated social science activities

27


Post – doctoral scientistHeather Lazrus (moving to Norman in January)

Environmental anthropologist

Extensive experience with NOAA Fisheries – conducting interviews in Alaska & Pacific Northwest How climate change & new policies affecting livelihoods & outlooks

Dissertation research 10 months living on TUVALU - small island

nation in South Pacific – how are THEY dealing with sea level rise?

28


Kim Klockow

Interdisciplinary Ph.D. - Meteorology & Economics, Finance

Master’s work in Professional Meteorology at OU Interviewing farmers about how they value weather information from the Oklahoma mesonet

Ph.D. to focus on new ways to verify warnings

29


Gina Eosco

Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at OU

Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society

Master’s work at Cornell University Interviewing forecasters & government officials

about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool

30


Workshop objectives1. Introduce new technologies & directions to

a diverse spectrum of potential future collaborators.

2. Define & address the broad spectrum of end-user needs from the super-user to diverse segments of the general public - focus on emergency managers, hospitals & individuals with higher vulnerability as well as private industry

3. Clarify & suggest new ways to communicate uncertainty & storm information - focus on graphic representations of storm timelines & uncertainty and communication through new & emerging technologies

4.Define new measures of success to assess service. Change concepts of storm verification including close calls & false alarms

5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the Experimental Warning Program design for spring experiments with stakeholders goals

6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the culture within all levels of the National Weather Service to facilitate operational implementation

7.Create visibility & consider possible future funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather Testbed activities & stakeholder interactions that help move The National Weather Service from WAS to IS

Workshop objectives

Ground rules Advanced WAS * IS is not like any other

workshop

NO Acronyms – except NOAA, HWT & WAS * IS!

Meet & mingle to foster new collaborations & projects Best uses of our short time together Breaks & meals

Keep everyone engaged – small groups Minimized glazed eyeballs Imagine yourself in other people’s shoes

Everyone’s opinion matters

Challenges of this bold experiment We speak different languages

Please remember not everyone is a meteorologist

What are appropriate thresholds for risks, for geographic specificity, how to show?

WAS * IS framework is not common to all of us

Technically difficult Using the scenario – Trade offs of

anchoring this way - Hazardous Weather Testbed & other hazards

Inventing innovative ways to communicate uncertainty

Even forecasters need more than l week to understand what we are going to tackle in 2.5 days

Challenges of this bold experiment

By tomorrow afternoon & Wednesday morning we will be evaluating options for moving forward More workshops – with other Weather Center Laboratories, Groups?

More partners Other big ideas! Sustainable brain trust?

WAS * IS means changing from WAS to IS

WAS physical scientistgoes to WAS * IS workshop

Becomes WAS social scientist!

Moving from WAS to IS…is not an instant transition! WAS*ISers realize the joys of CONNECTING WITH STAKEHOLDERS

Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea analogy One Man's Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School at a Time (Best selling book about building schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan)

1st cup- stranger 2nd cup- honored guest 3rd cup- you’re part of family… takes

years With 172 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of

other like-minded hard-workers

Social science & policy are having our 2nd cup of tea with meteorology

We’re not family yet – but we’re no longer strangers


National Weather ServicePrivate forecasters

Local Communities

The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model - Bring social science into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways

Meteorologists, Hydrologists

Universities

Research Centers

Urban Drainage Districts

Broadcast meteorologists


What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior to WAS*IS & SSWIM


WAS * ISers are NOT the same people with new technologies!

WAS*ISers & SSWIMers are changing the culture to

integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways

WAS*ISWAS*ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

Thanks to Steve Koch, Lynn Maximuk, & Mike Hudson from NOAA Central Regional

Team for funding this workshop


Thanks to all of you for coming & participating in this AMAZING opportunity

LET’S GET our Advanced WAS * IS BREWING!

We have BIG work to do

Documents

Eve Gruntfest [email protected] Norman, OK September 15,2008 Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm Warnings: A collaboration between stakeholders, the National