Upload
hungnguyen69
View
231
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 1/13
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 2/13
Three possible scenarios
for the fu ture
Rough SeasIn the world of Rough Seas, scarcity of resources is predominant. Climate change adds further
stress. Cartels and bilateral agreements have overtaken free markets. Wealth is divided unequally
among nations, resulting in tension. The entire logistics chain is optimised regionally and national
governments control ports.
Yellow RiverIn Yellow River, China dominates the global arena economically, geopolitically and in shipping. China
is no longer the world’s cheapest manufacturing region. Instead, labour and resource-intensive manu-
facturing has moved to Africa and other Asian countries. Economic growth is signicantly slower in
the West and climate change is tackled only on a regional level – no global agreements exist.
Open OceansThe world of Open Oceans is a strongly globalised one. Global mega-corporations and megacities have
gained power over the nation state. Governments cooperate on the governance of climate issues and
free trade protocols. Climate change is perceived as an opportunity, and innovating green solutions is a
lifestyle. Highly optimised and integrated large scale logistics systems support global trade.
Sources
Con ten
WH YTo support our strategy work and
provide a foundation for nding
ways of being prepared for the
future, together with the industry.
WH A TThree challenging and different,
yet plausible, scenarios about
what shipping could look like in
the year 2030.
HO WBy combining expert input,
quality research, hard work,
dedication and a bit of
imagination.
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 3/13
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 4/13
U N C E R T AI N T I E S
One way of making sense of a complex and changi
scenarios – stories describing alternative, plausible
come about. But how do you go about doing that?
At Wärtsilä, we rst set the year 2030 as the target
enough in the future to let fundamental changes ta
be tangible.
The team then set out to determine what could sha
alternative, plausible futures is about understanding
understanding the changes in the contextual enviro
on the shipping industry, helps us understand the w
turn out and what kind of effects it can have on ind
Through an intensive process of researching, interv
workshops, the team found two certainties and six
The only things we felt we could be sure of were tha
be part of the transportation matrix and that water w
The next page explains how this information was tu
scenarios.
Ho w do you c
a comple x wo
three scenari
C O N T
E X T U A
L EN V I R O N M E N
T
T H
E S H I P
P ING I N D U S T R Y
Shipping industry
player
Energy
Geopolitics
Figure: Adapted from van der Heijden 2005
Macroeconomics Climate
Social values
Technology
= Key uncertainties
EnvironmentLegislation
International nance Globalisation
Competitors
Investors
Employees
Suppliers
Regulators
Customers
NGOs Trade
Demographics
6
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 5/13
1
2 43
5
Scrambledgeopolitics
Globalleadershipby China
Global actionagainst climate
change
Neo-colonialisticapproach
creates friction
Nationalgovernmentscontrol power
Protectionistic,bilateral, uneven
growth
Free trade andow of capital,strong growth
Megacities andmega corporations
form the power base
Technologicalor market-driven
solutions
Local means to dealwith sustainability
issues
K e y uncer tain ti
la y the ground w
for scenarios
T hr ee scenar ios
emer geBy analy sing these uncer tainties, the combinations of dif f er ent outcomes y ielded three plausible scenar ios.
8
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 6/13
In the world of Rough Seas, scarcity o
is predominant. Climate change adds f
Rough Seas
Cartels and bilateral agreements have overtaken free
limited and unevenly distributed. Resources are sca
a source of power. Wealth is divided unequally amo
sion, and indeed, some nations are under pressure
geopolitics is scrambled. The key words for the Rou
tension and bilateralism.
New trade routes have emerged as a result of two k
in bilateral agreements and industries moving to res
of water and agricultural products being transported
The global tension has increased the need for arme
routes, now mostly open due to climate warming, a
The entire logistics chain is optimised regionally. Fle
the era of ags of convenience (registering a ship in
regulation) has come to an end. Oil tankers are decr
riers take on a bigger role instead. In regional trade,
transports. The changed pattern of goods ow has some major container terminals have closed down.
control ports.
Climate change is perceived as a threat, not an opp
regional solutions are in place to cope with this cha
zens’ resource use by taxation and other mechanis
resources such as energy and water is expensive a
and involuntarily, to more sustainable and less reso
renewable energy is the energy of choice and the m
sustained communities is a major trend. Control of
the age pyramid are global challenges.
Sep tember 14, 2027 The rs t con vo y o f
ships
carr ying wa ter sails from
Russia to India, pro tec ted
b y Na v y escor ts.
10
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 7/13
Energy scarcity
Bilateral agreements
and protectionism
GDP growthFriction
Causes and e f fec ts
positive impact
negative impact
12
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 8/13
In Yellow River, China dominates the gl
and geopolitically, and the renminbi is n
exchange currency. The Chinese trade
well as its trade with India, the Middle-
China is no longer the world’s cheapest manufactu
intensive manufacturing has moved to Africa and ot
the nished goods are shipped to China for the afu
megacities. As the living standard rises in China, Ch
tors to the historical sites in Europe.
China has invested heavily in Africa, where local eco
ards rise at a rapid pace, although corruption has by
These fast-developing countries have adopted Chin
Economic growth is signicantly slower in the West
have responded with massive R&D investments and
facturing has been moved back to US and Europe.
EU try to strengthen their relationships with Latin Am
Climate change is tackled only on a regional level –
However, China has, in part, counterbalanced the fa
with efciency and cleantech. Western societies ada
Europe specically develops efcient buildings and
The shipping industry, in the world of Yellow River, the big shipping companies are Chinese-owned, an
cording to Chinese trade interests. New ports are b
sia and India, and Chinese ports have grown into s
centres.
Towards 2030, the Chinese economy is becoming o
widens, the supply of water and food is of increasin
down. At the same time, China’s African allies start
economically.
Yello w Ri ver
Ma y 21, 2028
A Chinese con tainership – one
o f man y – is crossing the Indian
Ocean on i ts wa y from Dar es
Salaam to Shanghai, loaded
wi th manu fac tured goods.
14
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 9/13
Strong internal
consumption and
intra-Asian trade
Shift in balance
of power
Alliances create
Chinese “satellite states”
especially in Africa
Challenges in
governance within
the Chinese sphere
of inuence
Growth in Chinese
economyCauses and e f fec ts
positive impact
negative impact
16
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 10/13
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 11/13
Causes and e f fec ts
Agreements on
climate and trade
Growth of global
corporations
Governments
focus on corporate
governance
Protection of
commercial interests
positive impact
negative impact
20
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 12/13
8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wartsila-shipping-scenarios-2030 13/13
SourcesThese scenarios would not be the same without the valuable input of
various experts. We are grateful to the various academics, economists, NGO
representatives, independent researchers, business leaders, and the representatives
of governments and trade organisations, as well as our own specialists, for their
contributions. Wärtsilä powers every third ship and servicsailing the world’s seas. Our power plants p
world’s electricity.
Currently, shipping is the most efcient and
transporting goods over long distances an
to contribute to ensure that this remains th
sustainable solutions is the cornerstone of
commitment.
Wärtsilä has over 18,000 professionals, ma
in 70 countries around the world. Wärtsilä
OMX Helsinki, Finland.
Share your views, challenge us and provide your fee
the Shipping Scenarios at www.wartsila.com/shippin
You can also follow our Twitter feed at www.twitter.c
This release includes various forward-looking statements regarding potential risks, conditions and Wärtsilä’s business, as assumed by Wärtsilä
Corporation as of the date of this release. The forward-looking statements are based on unclear and unknown factors, risks, events and uncertainties
beyond Wärtsilä’s control. Accordingly, the forward-looking statements may or may not materialise, or may materialise substantially differently.
Consequently, neither Wärtsilä Corporation nor any of its subsidiaries assume liability on the basis of, or related to, this release. The readers of this
release must not rely on, take, or fail to take any actions based on this release or contents thereof. Wärtsilä Corporation undertakes no obligation to
update or adjust this release.
Wärtsilä - the le
marine solution