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“Future Scenarios for the Shared & Collaborative Economy in 2030 (ShE_2030)”
Enric Bas & Ana Bossler
FUTURLAB-University of Alicante (Spain)
20th Futures Conference: “Constructing Social Futures- Sustainability, Responsibility and Power”. FFRC-Turku (Finland). 12-13 June, 2019.
• Enric BAS holds a PhD in Sociology, is the Director of FUTURLAB-University of Alicante and member of the SFRI-Strategic Foresight for Research and Innovation in Horizon 2020 experts group of the European Commission. Professor of Social Change & Communication at the Faculty of Economics-University of Alicante. Author, Consultant and Researcher with more than 20 years of experience in Futures Methodology and Applied Foresight.
• Ana BOSSLER holds a LL.B. in Social Sciences and Law (PUC-Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil), MSc in International Economics (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina), LL.M Law (UMH, Spain). Chief Economist in Foreign Trade at OFTEX International Consulting (Spain). Associated Researcher in FUTURLAB-UA. Entrepeneur, Researcher, Author, Analyst and Consultant (UBA, ANUAR-UN, etc..) with a more than 10 years of experience on Applied International Economics.
• Enric BAS holds a PhD in Sociology, is the Director of FUTURLAB-University of Alicante and member of the SFRI-Strategic Foresight for Research and Innovation in Horizon 2020 experts group of the European Commission. Professor of Social Change & Communication at the Faculty of Economics-University of Alicante. Author, Consultant and Researcher with more than 20 years of experience in Futures Methodology and Applied Foresight.
• Ana BOSSLER holds a LL.B. in Social Sciences and Law (PUC-Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil), MSc in International Economics (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina), LL.M Law (UMH-Spain). Chief Economist in Foreign Trade at OFTEX Consulting (Spain). Associated Researcher in FUTURLAB-UA. Entrepeneur, Researcher, Author, Analyst and Consultant (UBA, ANUAR-UN, etc..) with a more than 10 years of experience on Applied International Economics
H2020-8th R&I Framework Programme
ERDF (European Regional Development Fund)
Interreg-MED Subprogram
INTERREG Program
openDOORS Project
ShE_2030
REGIONS (per Country) CONSIDERED for ShE_2030
The REPORT INDEX: ShE_2030
• The Project OpenDoors uses sharing and collaborative as an umbrella term whichholds at least five of the seven characteristics described as follow:
• Self-awareness• Technical interface. • Peer-to peer • Reuse of idle assets• Value framework• Social capital• Trust and reputation
OPEN DOORS ShE_2030: what is sharing economy
FUTURES MINDMAP
• 90 (6*3*5) KEY DRIVERS CONSIDERED for ShE_2030 / Cross Impact Matrix
• DIALECTICS OF CHANGE #1: HOW SOCIAL SUBSYSTEMS are impacting ShE
• DIALECTICS OF CHANGE #2: HOW ShE is impactIng SOCIAL SUBSYSTEMS
90 (6*3*5) KEY DRIVERS CONSIDERED for ShE_2030
DIALECTICS OF CHANGE #1:HOW SOCIAL SUBSYSTEMS are impacting ShE
DIALECTICS OF CHANGE #2:HOW ShE is impactIng SOCIAL SUBSYSTEMS
ShE_2030: the Mediterranean region
Source: Eurostat, 2018Global Entrepreneurship Index, 2018
Countries Unemployment (under25y)
Self-employed
Entrepreneurship Index
MSMEs Shadow economy
Spain 36.8% 16.1% 34th 99.88%total companies/74.85% employment
17.2% GDP
Italy 32.2% 21% 42th 99.92% total companies/79.74% employment
19.8% GDP
Croatia 24.5% 14% 54th 99.7% total companies/ 68.7% employment
28.4% GDP
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
• SCENARIO #1 (Extrapolative) Balancing Neoliberalism: the Shared & CollaborativeEconomy as (new) third way
• SCENARIO #2 (Disruptive) Hypercapitalism: Neoliberalism on steroids, or theCollaborative paradigm as trojan horse
• SCENARIO #3 (Utopian) Postcapitalism, or the Sharing Economy as the poster childof the 4th Industrial Revolution
SCENARIO #1 (Extrapolative)Balancing Neoliberalism: the Shared & Collaborative Economy as (new) third way
More Civil Society / STate
REFORMIST scenario –from the point view of Regulatory
SHARED data ownership (public + private)
BALANCE in the management of information concerning private life
PUBLIC CONTROL for guaranteeing privacy issues
TRANSPARENCY in massive-data based business
STIMULATION of co-creation, co-owning, etc…
CHANGE in the dominant lifestyle pattern moving away from massive consumerism
SCENARIO #2 (Disruptive)Hypercapitalism: Neoliberalism on steroids, or the Collaborative paradigm as trojan horse
More Market
DISTOPIAN vision –from the point of view of general expectancies
DIGITALIZATION of social life 360º
TOTAL surveillance and dependence
DATA as commodities
FOCUSING on Transactions instead of production
MONOPOLISTIC concentration
STATE in the crossroad
SCENARIO #3 (Utopian)Postcapitalism, or the Sharing Economy as the poster child of the 4th Industrial Revolution
More Technology
EXPERIENCE (even fake-Virtual Reality) over ownership
TOTAL SYNERGY of digitalization –IoT- with VR, AI, Biotech, etc…
DEMOCRATIZATION of business
BLOCKCHAIN impacts all
UNLOCK of economic potential in peripheral economies
SMART CONTRACTS and the dillution of state and corporation
CONCLUSIONS
OPEN FUTURE(S)
To be created around 5 main axes:
o THE PUBLIC SECTOR (States and their regulatory role)
o THE PRIVATE SECTOR (Organizations managing digital platforms and devices)
o TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT (opening new possibilities > disruptiveinnovations)
o DATA OWNERSHIP (essential since ShE is trust-based)
o THE CIVIL SOCIETY (people´s expectancies and ability to actively createcommunities and participate in social change)
…more in the full paper.
Kiitos paljon!
Thank you very much!
Enric: [email protected]
Ana: [email protected]
